Search results for: generalised linear modelling

Authors: Mohammad Nadeem, Haider Banka, R. Venugopal

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Granulation or agglomeration is a size enlargement process to transform the fine particulates into larger aggregates since the fine size of available materials and minerals poses difficulty in their utilization. Though a long list of methods is available in the literature for the modeling of granulation process to facilitate the in-depth understanding and interpretation of the system, there is still scope of improvements using novel tools and techniques. Intelligent techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, self-organizing map, support vector machine and others, have emerged as compelling alternatives for dealing with imprecision and complex non-linearity of the systems. The present study tries to review the applications of intelligent techniques in the modeling of size enlargement process for fine materials.

Keywords: fine material, granulation, intelligent technique, modelling

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perceptions of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travellers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Ali Raouli, Amin Chegenizadeh, Hamid Nikraz

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The Perth metropolitan area and its surrounding regions have been expanding rapidly in recent decades and it is expected that this growth will continue in the years to come. With this rapid growth and the resulting increase in population, consideration should be given to strategic planning and modelling for the future expansion of Perth. The accurate estimation of projected traffic volumes has always been a major concern for the transport modelers and planners. Development of a reliable strategic transport model depends significantly on the inputs data into the model and the calibrated parameters of the model to reflect the existing situation. Trip distribution is the second step in four-step modelling (FSM) which is complex due to its behavioral nature. Gravity model is the most common method for trip distribution. The spatial separation between the Origin and Destination (OD) zones will be reflected in gravity model by applying deterrence functions which provide an opportunity to include people’s behavior in choosing their destinations based on distance, time and cost of their journeys. Deterrence functions play an important role for distribution of the trips within a study area and would simulate the trip distances and therefore should be calibrated for any particular strategic transport model to correctly reflect the trip behavior within the modelling area. This paper aims to review the most common deterrence functions and propose a calibrated deterrence function for work trips within the Perth Metropolitan Area based on the information obtained from the latest available Household data and Perth and Region Travel Survey (PARTS) data. As part of this study, a four-step transport model using EMME software has been developed for Perth Metropolitan Area to assist with the analysis and findings.

Keywords: deterrence function, four-step modelling, origin destination, transport model

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Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

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Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

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Authors: Tokirhusen Iqbalbhai Shaikh, M. V. Shah

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With an increase in travel demand and a reduction in travel time, high-speed rail (HSR) has been introduced in India. Simplified 3-D finite element modelling is necessary to predict the stability and deformation characteristics of railway embankments and soil structure interaction behaviour under high-speed design requirements for Indian soil conditions. The objective of this study is to analyse the rigid ballast-less and flexible ballast-based high speed rail track embankments for various critical conditions subjected to them, viz. static condition, moving train condition, sudden brake application, and derailment case, using software. The input parameters for the analysis are soil type, thickness of the relevant strata, unit weight, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, undrained cohesion, friction angle, dilatancy angle, modulus of subgrade reaction, design speed, and other anticipated, relevant data. Eurocode 1, IRS-004(D), IS 1343, IRS specifications, California high-speed rail technical specifications, and the NHSRCL feasibility report will be followed in this study.

Keywords: soil structure interaction, high speed rail, numerical modelling, PLAXIS3D

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Authors: Merrimi El Bekkaye, El Bikri Khalid, Benamar Rhali

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In the present paper, the problem of geometrically non-linear free vibration of symmetrically and asymmetrically laminated composite beams (LCB) resting on nonlinear Pasternak elastic Foundation with immovable ends is studied. A homogenization procedure has been performed to reduce the problem under consideration to that of the isotropic homogeneous beams with effective bending stiffness and axial stiffness parameters. This simple formulation is developed using the governing axial equation of the beam in which the axial inertia and damping are ignored. The theoretical model is based on Hamilton’s principle and spectral analysis. Iterative form solutions are presented to calculate the fundamental nonlinear frequency parameters which are found to be in a good agreement with the published results. On the other hand, the influence of the foundation parameters on the nonlinear frequency to the linear frequency ratio of the LCB has been studied. The non-dimensional curvatures associated to the fundamental mode are also given in the case of clamped-clamped symmetrically and asymmetrically laminated composite beams.

Keywords: large vibration amplitudes, laminated composite beam, Pasternak foundation, composite beams

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Authors: M. S. Wickramarachchi, L. S. Nawarathna, C. M. B. Dematawewa

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Hatchery performance is critical for the profitability of poultry breeder operations. Some extrinsic parameters of eggs and breeders cause to increase or decrease the hatchability. This study aims to identify the affecting extrinsic parameters on the commercial hatchability of local chicken's eggs and determine the most efficient classification model with a hatchability rate greater than 90%. In this study, seven extrinsic parameters were considered: egg weight, moisture loss, breeders age, number of fertilised eggs, shell width, shell length, and shell thickness. Multiple linear regression was performed to determine the most influencing variable on hatchability. First, the correlation between each parameter and hatchability were checked. Then a multiple regression model was developed, and the accuracy of the fitted model was evaluated. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM) with a linear kernel, and Random Forest (RF) algorithms were applied to classify the hatchability. This grouping process was conducted using binary classification techniques. Hatchability was negatively correlated with egg weight, breeders' age, shell width, shell length, and positive correlations were identified with moisture loss, number of fertilised eggs, and shell thickness. Multiple linear regression models were more accurate than single linear models regarding the highest coefficient of determination (R²) with 94% and minimum AIC and BIC values. According to the classification results, RF, CART, and kNN had performed the highest accuracy values 0.99, 0.975, and 0.972, respectively, for the commercial hatchery process. Therefore, the RF is the most appropriate machine learning algorithm for classifying the breeder outcomes, which are economically profitable or not, in a commercial hatchery.

Keywords: classification models, egg weight, fertilised eggs, multiple linear regression

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Authors: Abtin Farokhipanah

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In recent years, analysis of structures is based on ductility design in contradictory to strength design in surveying earthquake effects on structures. ASCE07-10 code offers to intensify relative drifts calculated from a linear analysis with Cd which is called (Deflection Amplification Factor) to obtain the real relative drifts which can be calculated using nonlinear analysis. This lateral drift should be limited to the code boundaries. Calculation of this amplification factor for different structures, comparing with ASCE07-10 code and offering the best coefficient are the purposes of this research. Following our target, short and tall building steel structures with various earthquake resistant systems in linear and nonlinear analysis should be surveyed, so these questions will be answered: 1. Does the Response Modification Coefficient (R) have a meaningful relation to Deflection Amplification Factor? 2. Does structure height, seismic zone, response spectrum and similar parameters have an effect on the conversion coefficient of linear analysis to real drift of structure? The procedure has used to conduct this research includes: (a) Study on earthquake resistant systems, (b) Selection of systems and modeling, (c) Analyzing modeled systems using linear and nonlinear methods, (d) Calculating conversion coefficient for each system and (e) Comparing conversion coefficients with the code offered ones and concluding results.

Keywords: ASCE07-10 code, deflection amplification factor, earthquake engineering, lateral displacement of structures, response modification coefficient

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: O. Nkwonta, B. Dzwairo, F. Otieno, J. Adeyemo

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The effective management of water resources is of great importance to ensure the supply of water resources to support changing water requirements over a selected planning horizon and in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Essentially, the purpose of the water resources planning process is to balance the available water resources in a system with the water requirements and losses to which the system is subjected. In such situations, water resources yield and planning model can be used to solve those difficulties. It has an advantage over other models by managing model runs, developing a representative system network, modelling incremental sub-catchments, creating a variety of standard system features, special modelling features, and run result output options.

Keywords: complex, water resources, planning, cost effective, management

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Mohsen Ziaee

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In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented to solve the flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSP). This problem is one of the hardest combinatorial problems. The objective considered is the minimization of the makespan. The computational results of the proposed MILP model were compared with those of the best known mathematical model in the literature in terms of the computational time. The results show that our model has better performance with respect to all the considered performance measures including relative percentage deviation (RPD) value, number of constraints, and total number of variables. By this improved mathematical model, larger FJS problems can be optimally solved in reasonable time, and therefore, the model would be a better tool for the performance evaluation of the approximation algorithms developed for the problem.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop, makespan, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: David Rafetseder, Walter Bauer, Florian Poltschak, Wolfgang Amrhein

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A flat double-stator linear induction machine (DSLIM) with a short squirrel-cage mover is designed for high thrust force at moderate speed < 5m/s. The performance and motor parameters are determined on the basis of a 2D time-transient simulation with the finite element (FE) software Maxwell 2015. Design guidelines and transformation rules for space vector theory of the LIM are presented. Resulting thrust calculated by flux and current vectors is compared with the FE results showing good coherence and reduced noise. The parameters of the equivalent circuit model are obtained.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, finite element model, linear induction motor, space vector theory

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Authors: Apolinar Picado, Ronald Solís, Rafael Gamero

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The thin-layer drying characteristics of instant coffee solution were investigated in a laboratory tunnel dryer. Drying experiments were carried out at three temperatures (80, 100 and 120 °C) and an air velocity of 1.2 m/s. Drying experimental data obtained are fitted to six (6) thin-layer drying models using the non-linear least squares regression analysis. The acceptability of the thin-layer drying model has been based on a value of the correlation coefficient that should be close to one, and low values for root mean square error (RMSE) and chi-square (x²). According to this evaluation, the most suitable model for describing drying process of thin-layer instant coffee solution is the Page model. Further, the effective moisture diffusivity and the activation energy were computed employing the drying experimental data. The effective moisture diffusivity values varied from 1.6133 × 10⁻⁹ to 1.6224 × 10⁻⁹ m²/s over the temperature range studied and the activation energy was estimated to be 162.62 J/mol.

Keywords: activation energy, diffusivity, instant coffee, thin-layer models

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Authors: Fernando P. Silva, Valter J. S. Leite, Erivelton G. Nepomuceno

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In this paper, a nonlinear controller design for an omnidirectional mobile is presented. The robot controller consists of an inner-loop controller and an outer-loop controller, the first is designed using state feedback (robust allocation) and the second controller is designed based on Robust Multi Inversion (RMI) approach. The objective of RMI controller is rendering the robust inversion of the dynamic, when the model is affected by uncertainties. A model nonlinear MIMO of an omni-directional robot (small-league of Robocup) is used to simulate the RMI approach. The parameters of linear and nonlinear model are varied to cause modelling uncertainties among the model and the real model (real system) generating an error in inner-loop controller signal that must be compensated by RMI controller. The simulation test results show that the RMI is capable of compensating the uncertainties and keep the system stable and controlled under uncertainties.

Keywords: robust multi inversion, omni-directional robot, robocup, nonlinear control

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Authors: T. Zitoun, M. Bouhadef

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When a partially or completely immersed solid moves in a liquid such as water, it undergoes a force called hydrodynamic drag. Reducing this force has always been the objective of hydrodynamic engineers to make water slide better on submerged bodies. This paper deals with the examination of the different terms composing the analytical solution of the flow over an obstacle embedded at the bottom of a hydraulic channel. We have chosen to use a linear method to study a two-dimensional flow over an obstacle, in order to understand the evolution of the drag. We set the following assumptions: incompressible inviscid fluid, irrotational flow, low obstacle height compared to the water height. Those assumptions allow overcoming the difficulties associated with modelling these waves. We will mathematically formulate the equations that allow the determination of the stream function, and then the free surface equation. A similar method is used to determine the exact analytical solution for an obstacle in the shape of a sinusoidal arch.

Keywords: analytical solution, free-surface wave, hydraulic channel, inviscid fluid

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Authors: Ellen Nhedzi Gozo

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Unavailability of adequate hydro-meteorological data has always limited the analysis and understanding of hydrological behaviour of several dam catchments including Mazowe Dam in Zimbabwe. The problem of insufficient data for Mazowe Dam catchment analysis was solved by extracting catchment characteristics and aerial hydro-meteorological data from ASTER, LANDSAT, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission SRTM remote sensing (RS) images using ILWIS, ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine geographic information systems (GIS) software. Available observed hydrological as well as meteorological data complemented the use of the remotely sensed information. Ground truth land cover was mapped using a Garmin Etrex global positioning system (GPS) system. This information was then used to validate land cover classification detail that was obtained from remote sensing images. A bathymetry survey was conducted using a SONAR system connected to GPS. Hydrological modelling using the HBV model was then performed to simulate the hydrological process of the catchment in an effort to verify the reliability of the derived parameters. The model output shows a high Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient that is close to 1 indicating that the parameters derived from remote sensing and GIS can be applied with confidence in the analysis of Mazowe Dam catchment.

Keywords: geographic information systems, hydrological modelling, remote sensing, water resources management

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Authors: M. V. A. Raju Bahubalendruni, Bibhuti Bhusan Biswal, B. B. V. L. Deepak

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Achieving an appropriate assembly sequence needs deep verification for its physical feasibility. For this purpose, industrial engineers use several assembly predicates; namely, liaison, geometric feasibility, stability and mechanical feasibility. However, testing an assembly sequence for these predicates requires huge assembly information. Extracting such assembly information from an assembled product is a time consuming and highly skillful task with complex reasoning methods. In this paper, computer aided methods are proposed to extract all the necessary assembly information from computer aided design (CAD) environment in order to perform the assembly sequence planning efficiently. These methods use preliminary capabilities of three-dimensional solid modelling and assembly modelling methods used in CAD software considering equilibrium laws of physical bodies.

Keywords: assembly automation, assembly attributes, assembly, CAD

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Authors: Salim Khan

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The attainment of the carbon neutrality objective and Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG-13) target, which pertains to climate actions, received widespread attention in developing and emerging nations. Given the increasing pace of urbanization, technological advancements, and rapid growth, it is imperative to examine the linear and nonlinear effects of urbanization and economic growth and the linear impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on carbon emissions (CO2e). This study employs the Dynamic System GMM (DSGMM) and Panel Quantile Regression (PQR) methodologies to investigate the causal relationship between urbanization, ICT, economic growth, and their interplay on CO2e in 39 BRI countries from 2001 to 2020. The study's findings indicate that the impact of urbanization on CO2e exhibits linear and nonlinear patterns. The specific nonlinear impact of urbanization leads to a decrease in CO2e, hence facilitating the achievement of carbon neutrality and contributing to SDG-13. The study highlights the importance of ICT in achieving SDG-13 by reducing CO2e, emphasizing the need for informatization. Simultaneously, the findings support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and support the pollution haven theory. Finally, based on empirical findings, significant policy implications are suggested for achieving SGD 13 and carbon neutrality.

Keywords: urbanization, ICT, CO2 emission, EKC, pollution haven, BRI

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Authors: Hee Sun (Sunny) Choi, Gerhard Bruyns, Wang Zhang, Sky Cheng, Saijal Sharma

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The main focus of this paper is to propose a comprehensive framework for the cognitive measurement and modelling of the built environment. This will involve exploring and measuring neural mechanisms. The aim is to create a foundation for further studies in this field that are consistent and rigorous. Additionally, this framework will facilitate collaboration with cognitive neuroscientists by establishing a shared conceptual basis. The goal of this research is to develop a human-centric approach for urban design that is scientific and measurable, producing a set of urban design guidelines that incorporate cognitive measurement and modelling. By doing so, the broader intention is to design urban spaces that prioritize human needs and well-being, making them more liveable.

Keywords: vertical urbanism, human centric design, spatial cognition and psychology, vertical urban design guidelines

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Authors: Leonardo Herrera, Shield B. Lin, Stephen J. Montgomery-Smith, Ziraguen O. Williams

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Three control algorithms: Proportional-Integral-Derivative, Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian, and Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian with the shift, were applied to the computer simulation of a one-directional dynamic model of a Stewart Platform. The goal was to compare the dynamic system responses under the three control algorithms and to minimize the impact energy when simulating spacecraft docking operations. Equations were derived for the control algorithms and the input and output of the feedback control system. Using MATLAB, Simulink diagrams were created to represent the three control schemes. A switch selector was used for the convenience of changing among different controllers. The simulation demonstrated the controller using the algorithm of Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian with the shift resulting in the lowest impact energy.

Keywords: controller, Stewart platform, docking operation, spacecraft

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Authors: Sunil Mittal, Sukhpreet Singh, Hardeep Kaur

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The affinity of thiol group with heavy metals is a well-established phenomenon. The present investigation has been focused on electrochemical response of cysteine and thioredoxin against arsenite (As III) on indium tin oxide (ITO) electrodes. It was observed that both the compounds produce distinct response in free and immobilised form at the electrode. The SEM, FTIR, and impedance studies of the modified electrode were conducted for characterization. Various parameters were optimized to achieve As (III) effect on the reduction potential of the compounds. Cyclic voltammetry and linear sweep voltammetry were employed as the analysis techniques. The optimum response was observed at neutral pH in both the cases, at optimum concentration of 2 mM and 4.27 µM for cysteine and thioredoxin respectively. It was observed that presence of As (III) increases the reduction current of both the moieties. The linear range of detection for As (III) with cysteine was from 1 to 10 mg L⁻¹ with detection limit of 0.8 mg L⁻¹. The thioredoxin was found more sensitive to As (III) and displayed a linear range from 0.1 to 1 mg L⁻¹ with detection limit of 10 µg L⁻¹.

Keywords: arsenite, cyclic voltammetry, cysteine, thioredoxin

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Authors: N. F. Jamaluddin, N. A. H. Aizam

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This paper explains the educational timetabling problem, a type of scheduling problem that is considered as one of the most challenging problem in optimization and operational research. The university examination timetabling problem (UETP), which involves assigning a set number of exams into a set number of timeslots whilst fulfilling all required conditions, has been widely investigated. The limitation of available timeslots and resources with the increasing number of examinations are the main reasons in the difficulty of solving this problem. Dynamical change in the examination scheduling system adds up the complication particularly in coping up with the demand and new requirements by the communities. Our objective is to investigate these demands and requirements with subjects taken from Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), through questionnaires. Integer linear programming model which reflects the preferences obtained to produce an effective examination timetabling was formed.

Keywords: demands, educational timetabling, integer linear programming, scheduling, university examination timetabling problem (UETP)

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Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

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The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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Authors: Shivani Sharma, Prashant Saxena, Inamul Hasan Madar

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Since the time of Darwin, it has been considered that genetic change is the direct indicator of variation in phenotype. But a few studies in system biology in the past years have proposed that epigenetic developmental processes also affect the phenotype thus shifting the focus from a linear genotype-phenotype map to a non-linear G-P map. In this paper, we attempt at explaining the evolution of colour vision in mammals by taking LWS/ Long-wave sensitive gene under consideration.

Keywords: evolution, phenotypes, epigenetics, LWS gene, G-P map

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Authors: Reji Thankachan, Varsha PS

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Both image capturing devices and human visual systems are nonlinear. Hence nonlinear filtering methods outperforms its linear counterpart in many applications. Linear methods are unable to remove impulsive noise in images by preserving its edges and fine details. In addition, linear algorithms are unable to remove signal dependent or multiplicative noise in images. This paper presents an approach to denoise and smoothen the Bipolar impulse noised images and videos using improved Kuwahara filter. It involves a 2 stage algorithm which includes a noise detection followed by filtering. Numerous simulation demonstrate that proposed method outperforms the existing method by eliminating the painting like flattening effect along the local feature direction while preserving edge with improvement in PSNR and MSE.

Keywords: bipolar impulse noise, Kuwahara, PSNR MSE, PDF

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Authors: Ivana Mokrá

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The article deals with modelling of the fire pragmatism in the area of military management and its experimental verification. Potential approaches are based on the synergy of mathematical and theoretical ideas, operational and tactical requirements and the military decision-making process. This issue has taken on importance in recent times, particularly with the increasing trend of digitized battlefield, the development of C4ISR systems and intention to streamline the command and control process at the lowest levels of command. From fundamental and philosophical point of view, these new approaches seek to significantly upgrade and enhance the decision-making process of the tactical commanders.

Keywords: military management, decision-making process, strike modeling, experimental evaluation, pragmatism, tactical strike modeling

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: Bharath Anantharamaiah, Tomas Bouda, Elke Deckers, Stijn Jonckheere, Wim Desmet, Juan J. Garcia

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Automotive tyres are gaining importance recently in terms of their noise emission, not only with respect to reduction in noise, but also their perception and detection. Tyres exhibit a mechanical noise generation mechanism up to 1 kHz. However, owing to the fact that tyre is a composite of several materials, it has been difficult to model it using finite elements to predict noise at high frequencies. The currently available FE models have a reliability of about 500 Hz, the limit which, however, is not enough to perceive the roughness or sharpness of noise from tyre. These noise components are important in order to alert pedestrians on the street about passing by slow, especially electric vehicles. In order to model tyre noise behaviour up to 1 kHz, its dynamic behaviour must be accurately developed up to a 1 kHz limit using finite elements. Materials play a vital role in modelling the dynamic tyre behaviour precisely. Since tyre is a composition of several components, their precise definition in finite element simulations is necessary. However, during the tyre manufacturing process, these components are subjected to various pressures and temperatures, due to which these properties could change. Hence, material definitions are better described based on the tyre responses. In this work, the hyperelasticity of tyre component rubbers is calibrated, using the design of experiments technique from the tyre characteristic responses that are measured on a stiffness measurement machine. The viscoelasticity of rubbers are defined by the Prony series for rubbers, which are determined from the loss factor relationship between the loss and storage moduli, assuming that the rubbers are excited within the linear viscoelasticity ranges. These values of loss factor are measured and theoretically expressed as a function of rubber shore hardness or hyperelasticities. From the results of the work, there exists a good correlation between test and simulation vibrational transfer function up to 1 kHz. The model also allows flexibility, i.e., the frequency limit can also be extended, if required, by calibrating the Prony parameters of rubbers corresponding to the frequency of interest. As future work, these tyre models are used for noise generation at high frequencies and thus for tyre noise perception.

Keywords: tyre dynamics, rubber materials, prony series, hyperelasticity

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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