Search results for: cultural risk underestimation

Authors: Asah Nelson Asoh, Wanie Clarkson Mvo

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Given the diverse nature of cultural diversity in Cameroon from the forested south to the sudano-sahelian north regions, Cameroon is aptly described as 'Africa in Miniature', which simply means all of Africa in a single country-Cameroon. Cameroon possesses all that can be attractive to the eyes in Africa. Yet, there is a microscopic involvement of the local inhabitants in participatory governance of cultural patrimony for tourism and community-based socio-economic development, which greatly jeopardizes conservation endeavors because the community fails to trust governing authorities. This study delves into the ways through which local inhabitants could be indulged in participatory governance of cultural patrimony for tourism and community-based socio-economic development. The study adopts a qualitative research design and semi-structured interviews with experts in the collection of primary data blended with secondary materials from published sources, including textbooks, scientific journal articles, dissertations, reports, and internet websites. The collected data was presented and analysed using descriptive statistical techniques, photographic illustrations, and through intuition. The study fosters the ways through which local inhabitants could be indulged in participatory governance of cultural patrimony for tourism and community-based socio-economic development. This is to ensure community support for the conservation of tourism cultural patrimony in Cameroon in particular and the world at large.

Keywords: participatory governance, cultural patrimony, tourism, socio-economic development, Cameroon

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Alon Gelbman, Daniel Laven

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The paper focuses on a case study of a small-scale heritage tourism venture that seeks to influence tourism development in Nazareth’s old city. This is an exploratory case study that uses qualitative research methods including extensive participant observation and in-depth interviews with the venture’s senior management group and selected employees. Study findings indicate a model of the relationship between community-based tourism development, heritage, and peace-building in a city that has experienced a wide range of cross-cultural conflicts. This model represents an alternative view to the notion that heritage serves to enhance differences and dissonance between different cultural groups. In contrast, findings from this study suggest that heritage in the form of tourism; can help create shared interests between different communities in settings characterized by cross-cultural conflict. This model represents an alternative view to the notion that heritage serves to enhance differences and dissonance between different cultural groups. In contrast, findings from this study suggest that heritage in the form of tourism; can help create shared interests between different communities in settings characterized by cross-cultural conflict.

Keywords: cultural heritage tourism, tourism and peace, community-based tourism, sustainable tourism, cross-cultural conflict, Nazareth historic city

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Authors: Djeddi Khaled, Houssou Hind, Miloudi Abdelatif, Rabah Siham

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Camels play a vital role as multipurpose animals, providing milk meat and serving as a means of transportation. They serve as a financial reserve for pastoralists and hold significant cultural and social value. Camel milk, known for its exceptional nutritional properties, is considered a valuable substitute for human milk. However, udder infections, particularly mastitis, pose significant challenges to camel farming. Clinical and subclinical mastitis can lead to substantial economic losses. Mastitis, especially the subclinical form, is a persistent and prevalent condition affecting milk hygiene and quality in dairy camels. This review offers insights into the prevalence and risk factors associated with subclinical mastitis in camels. The prevalence of subclinical mastitis in dairy camels was found to range from 9.28% to 87.78%. Major pathogens responsible for camel mastitis include Staphylococcus aureus, Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus, Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli, Micrococcus spp, Pasteurella haemolytica and Corynebacterium spp. The study outlines key risk factors contributing to camel mastitis, emphasizing factors such as severe tick infestation, age, stage of lactation, parity, body condition score, skin lesion on the teats or udders, anti-suckling devices, previous history of the udder, conformation of the udder, breed, unhygienic milking practices, production system, amongst others have been reported to be important in the prevalence of subclinical mastitis. This comprehensive overview provides valuable insights into the multifaceted aspects of camel mastitis, encompassing prevalent bacterial pathogens and diverse risk factors. The findings underscore the importance of holistic management practices, emphasizing hygiene, health monitoring, and targeted interventions to ensure the well-being and productivity of camels in various agro-pastoral contexts.

Keywords: bacterial pathogens, camel, mastitis, risk factors

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Authors: Eric Lai, Sarah Lorger, David Eisinger, Richard Waugh

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Introduction: Percutaneous embolization of varicoceles has shown similar outcomes to surgery. However, there are advantages of radiological intervention as patients are not exposed to general anaesthesia, experience a quicker recovery and face a lower risk of major complications. Radiological interventions are also preferable after a failed surgical approach. We evaluate clinical outcomes of percutaneous embolization at a tertiary hospital in Sydney, Australia. Methods: Retrospective case series without a control group from a single site (Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Australia). A data search was performed on the interventional radiology database with the word “varicocele” between February 2017 and March 2022. 62 patients were identified. Each patient file was reviewed and included in the study if they met the inclusion criteria. Results: A total of 56 patients were included. 6 patients were excluded as they did not receive intervention after the initial diagnostic venography. Technical success was 100%. Complications were seen in 3 patients (5.3%). The complications included post-procedural pain and fever, venous perforation with no clinical adverse outcome, and a mild allergic reaction to contrast. Recurrence occurred in 3 patients (5.6%), all of whom received a successful second procedure. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates comparable rates of technical success, complication rate and recurrence to other studies in the literature. When compared to surgical outcomes, the results were also similar. The main limitation is multiple patients lack long-term follow-up beyond 1 year, resulting in potential underestimation of the recurrence rate. Conclusion: Percutaneous embolization of varicocele is a safe alternative to surgical intervention.

Keywords: varicocele, interventional radiology, urology, radiology

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Iliya Ibrahim Gimba

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Human beings or groups over the world have a traditional and cultural practices which guide and direct their ways of life. They value and promote these practices not minding the attitude of others towards them. In spite of the place of culture which is an embodiment of these practices in every human society some people still reduce the understanding of culture to idolatry and other archaic and anachronistic arts good perhaps only for the museum. Others consider culture to be just drumming and dancing. Whether a culture is “good” or “bad”, civilized or barbaric, it can be reformed for the betterment of the society. Hence, this paper focuses on reforming traditional and cultural practices in Nigeria for enhancing development in the 21st century using the Jukun people as a case study. Relevant literatures from journals, reports, published books among others will be consulted.

Keywords: Jukun, traditional and cultural practices, sustainable development, human

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Authors: Fiona Armstrong, David Gaul, Michael Barrett, Lorraine D'Arcy

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Playing is an instinctive and universal human behavior, is a child’s way of learning and an outlet for their innate need of activity. Risky play can be defined as any play that is thrilling or exciting involving the risk of injury. The benefits of risky play have been acknowledged as helping children to explore and conquer fears, develop confidence, reduce anxiety, and develop risk-management skills. Studies indicate that children learn sound judgment by assessing and confronting risks in relation to their own capabilities through exposure to carefully managed play experiences. Risky play has been associated with danger and increased risk of injury, with families focusing on risk aversion and protecting children from the risks inherent in the modern world. Despite children needing cultural, social, emotional, physical, and geographical space to play, the opportunity for children to play is diminishing. Aim: This study explores play behaviors and risky play in an Irish context by investigating parental attitudes to risky play. Methodology: This is a mixed methods study involving the State of Play survey and semi-structured interviews exploring parental attitudes to risky play. Data will be quantitatively analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics using IBM SPSS and qualitatively analyzed via thematic analysis using NVivo. Conclusion: The information gathered could advise stakeholders regarding the creation and provision of developmentally appropriate, challenging, stimulating, adaptable, accessible, and safe as necessary outdoor play areas. This research can inform parents, planners, architects, and authorities involved in creating environments for play and contribute to policy development.

Keywords: child development, parental attitudes, play opportunities, risky play

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Authors: Masoud Hassanzade Novin, Bahloul Salmani

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Translation cannot be considered as a simple linguistic act. Through the rise of descriptive approach in the late 1970s and 1980s, translation process managed to meet the requirements of social aspects as well as linguistic approaches. To have the translation considered as the cross-cultural communication through which various cultures communicate in ideological and cultural constraints, the contrastive analysis was conducted in this paper to reveal the distortions imposed in the translated texts. The corpus of the study involved the novel 1984 written by George Orwell and its Persian translated texts which were analyzed through the qualitative type of the research based on critical discourse analysis (CDA) and Toury's norms as well as Lefever's concepts of ideology. Results of the study revealed the point that ideology and the cultural constraints were considered as an important stimulus which can control the process of the translation.

Keywords: critical discourse analysis, ideology, norms, translated texts

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Hirreche Baghdad Mohamed

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Our research is linked to cultural policies because the initiation to taste and beauty is a matter for all cultural and educational institutions. It's done by a downstream process (programs, actions, lessons, etc.) that begins at a young age in order to inscribe aesthetic values in memories, imaginations, and practices. Preparing future art lovers probably takes a lot of time. Upstream, continuity is ensured by the "cultural industries" which make cultural products available to actors in the "art market" through professional training, production, dissemination, and sales processes. It turns out that the cultural industries borrow from the "classical" industries the same processes and logic: product, production, marketing, diffusion, profit and profits, supply and demand, the market, the creation of wealth, the entrepreneurship. Today, culture has become a product almost like the others. In the cultural industries system, we protect the rights of authors (owners) and the rights of intermediaries (entrepreneurs of culture), and we provide consumers with an accessible product that meets their needs and expectations. We aim to present an inventory and to reveal, through the speeches of the actors themselves, the processes and modes of operation and deployment of the plastic arts market by showing how it is perceived, imagined, and lived in the city of 'Oran from the 2000s to the present day. However, it is possible to clarify this field of research by looking at previous periods; and even to make comparisons with other regions in Algeria in order to give meaning to practices in various contexts.

Keywords: Oran, Algeria, fine art, art market

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Authors: Takuya Inoue

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Applying affordance theory to the field of communication research has been more significant. This paper suggests that the act of design, including language, is defined as encouraging or restricting affordance of an object or event and make it perceivable for users, rather merely conveying information. From this point of view, 5 types of oral expressions in Kyoto dialect, as well as 4 types of exterior design such as sekimori-ishi (a barrier-stone in a teahouse garden) which are specific to traditions in Kyoto, are examined. We found that exterior designs have no physical power in itself, they work as ‘signifier’ to highlight cultural frames which heavily depend on exclusive culture among city-dwellers in Kyoto. At the same time, the expressions are implicit, even sometimes sarcastic, which are also supported by cultural frames. In conclusion, the existence of traditional design is motivated in informative ‘ecological frame.’

Keywords: affordance theory, communication, cultural design, Japanese culture, Kyoto dialect, signifier

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Authors: Jin Chuhao, Chen Xiang

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In recent years, due to the rapid development of Chinese urbanization, a great deal of rural population surge into urban to make a living. This fact causes the vicious circulation of rural development including sharp decrease of agricultural labor force in rural area, the obvious increase of rural land price, the shrinking of traditional agriculture and the bigger gap between Chinese urban and rural areas. With the improvement of living condition and ideological level of the Chinese people, the use and renewal of the traditional villages are gaining more and more attention, thus agricultural cultural and creative industries appears. Basing on the investigation of practical projects, this paper discusses how the agricultural cultural and creative industries promote the sustainable development of Chinese rural areas.

Keywords: sustainable design, Chinese rural areas, renewal, agricultural cultural and creative industries

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Teresa Caswell

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Throughout the United States and within a myriad of demographic contexts, students of color experience the results of systemic inequities as an academic outcome. These disparities continue despite the increased resources provided to students and ongoing instruction-focused professional learning received by teachers. The researcher postulated that lower levels of educator cultural competency are an underlying factor of why resource and instructional interventions are less effective than desired. Before implementing any type of intervention, however, cultural competency needed to be confirmed as a factor in schools demonstrating academic disparities between racial subgroups. A needs assessment was designed to measure levels of individual beliefs, including cultural competency, in both principals and teachers at three neighboring schools verified to have academic disparities. The resulting mixed method study utilized the Optimal Theory Applied to Identity Development (OTAID) model to measure cultural competency quantitatively, through self-identity inventory survey items, with teachers and qualitatively, through one-on-one interviews, with each school’s principal. A joint display was utilized to see combined data within and across school contexts. Each school was confirmed to have misalignments between principal and teacher levels of cultural competency beliefs while also indicating that a number of participants in the self-identity inventory survey may have intentionally skipped items referencing the term oppression. Additional use of the OTAID model and self-identity inventory in future research and across contexts is needed to determine transferability and dependability as cultural competency measures.

Keywords: cultural competency, identity development, mixed-method analysis, needs assessment

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Authors: Monika Moggert

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The aim of the research evaluates the local centers' development of Berlin, the capital of Germany. There are included studies of their potential, considers the possibility of applying different cultural influences and the issue of the current demographic transformation of Europe. The solution utilizes the analysis of historical, cultural, political and sociological changes after 2nd World War; the exploration of historical as well as strategic maps and personal evaluation of the current condition of selected boroughs – Berlin Neuköln, Kreuzberg and Wedding, where more than 30% of the inhabitants have a migration background. The research provides an example of the likely development of centers in urban agglomerations. It examines the issue of local centers with an inhumane scale in contrast to small-scale centering sites, mostly located in areas largely with immigrant communities. The research results enable a better understanding of the influence of different cultures and lifestyles on the appearance of the city and its local centers. We can use it as an inspiration for the new design of the Berlin centers. The results will be used for further research on urban space development in the cultural environment of Europe and the Middle East as well.

Keywords: Berlin, cultural environment, life in the city, public and urban space, the urban city centers development, town and society

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Authors: Junjie Fu

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This paper explores the cultural evolution of the "city-mountain" landscape in ancient Chinese cities, tracing its origins in the regional mountain and town division within the national system. It delves into the cultural archetype of "city-mountain" landscape divine imagery and its spatial characteristics, drawing from the spatial conception of mountain worship and divine order in the model of Kunlun and Penglai. Furthermore, it examines the shift from religious to daily life influences, leading to a poetic aesthetic turn in the "city-mountain" landscape. The paper also discusses the organizational structure of the "city-mountain" poetic landscape and its role as a space for enjoyment. By studying the cultural connotations, evolving relationships, and power mechanisms of the "city-mountain" landscape, this research provides theoretical insights for the construction and development of "city-mountain" landscapes and mountain cities.

Keywords: city-mountain landscape, cultural image, divinity, landscape image, poetry

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Jin-Hua Tu, Kuan-Ting Pan

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Tour leader cultural competence (TLCC) refers to a tour leader’s ability to interact appropriately and effectively with people from different cultural backgrounds. This leads tourists to have positive tourism experiences. However, few studies have discussed the effects of TLCC on tour member experiences. In this study, tour leaders and tour members of Taiwan group package tours were used as research participants. A total of 55 tour leaders and 524 tour members were recruited, and hierarchical linear modeling was employed to investigate the association between research variables at two levels (tour leader and tour member), the results revealed that TLCC improves perceived authenticity. The findings of this study have managerial implications for travel agencies and tour leaders and offer directions for future studies.

Keywords: tour leader, cultural competence, authenticity perception, group package tour

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Authors: Andrea N. Alarcon, Julian D. Castro, Gloria C. Rojas, Paola A. Vaca, Santiago Ortiz, Gustavo Martinez, Pablo D. Lemoine

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Recently, electoral results across many countries have shown to be inconsistent with rational decision theory, which states that individuals make decisions based on maximizing benefits and reducing risks. An alternative explanation has emerged: Fear and rage-driven vote have been proved to be highly effective for political persuasion and mobilization. This phenomenon has been evident in the 2016 elections in the United States, 2006 elections in Mexico, 1998 elections in Venezuela, and 2004 elections in Bolivia. In Colombia, it has occurred recently in the 2016 plebiscite for peace and 2018 presidential elections. The aim of this study is to explain this phenomenon using cultural cognition theory, referring to the psychological predisposition individuals have to believe that its own and its peer´s behavior is correct and, therefore, beneficial to the entire society. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to fit perceived risks, and factual beliefs into group shared values; the Cultural Cognition Worldview Scales (CCWS) measures cultural perceptions through two different dimensions: Individualism-communitarianism and hierarchy-egalitarianism. The former refers to attitudes towards social dominance based on conspicuous and static characteristics (sex, ethnicity or social class), while the latter refers to attitudes towards a social ordering in which it is expected from individuals to guarantee their own wellbeing without society´s or government´s intervention. A probabilistic national sample was obtained from different polls from the consulting and public opinion company Centro Nacional de Consultoría. Sociodemographic data was obtained along with CCWS scores, a subjective measure of left-right ideological placement and vote intention for 2019 Mayor´s elections were also included in the questionnaires. Finally, the question “In your opinion, what is the greatest risk Colombia is facing right now?” was included to identify perceived risk in the population. Preliminary results show that Colombians are highly distributed among hierarchical communitarians and egalitarian individualists (30.9% and 31.7%, respectively), and to a less extent among hierarchical individualists and egalitarian communitarians (19% and 18.4%, respectively). Males tended to be more hierarchical (p < .000) and communitarian (p=.009) than females. ANOVA´s revealed statistically significant differences between groups (quadrants) for the level of schooling, left-right ideological orientation, and stratum (p < .000 for all), and proportion differences revealed statistically significant differences for groups of age (p < .001). Differences and distributions for vote intention and perceived risks are still being processed and results are yet to be analyzed. Results show that Colombians are differentially distributed among quadrants in regard to sociodemographic data and left-right ideological orientation. These preliminary results indicate that this study may shed some light on why Colombians vote the way they do, and future qualitative data will show the fears emerging from the identified values in the CCWS and the relation this has with vote intention.

Keywords: communitarianism, cultural cognition, egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, perceived risks

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

Abstract:

Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

Abstract:

Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

Procedia PDF Downloads 282