Search results for: multi-actor decision making
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6767

Search results for: multi-actor decision making

3017 Using Deep Learning Neural Networks and Candlestick Chart Representation to Predict Stock Market

Authors: Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma, Wei-Chun Kao, Ho-Thi Trang, Yu-Yen Ou, Kai-Lung Hua

Abstract:

Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors that affect the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment, and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using deep convolutional network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a convolutional neural network model. This convolutional neural network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of the stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with promising results; 92.2% and 92.1 % accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively.

Keywords: candlestick chart, deep learning, neural network, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
3016 Graphical User Interface for Presting Matlab Work for Reduction of Chromatic Disperion Using Digital Signal Processing for Optical Communication

Authors: Muhammad Faiz Liew Abdullah, Bhagwan Das, Nor Shahida, Abdul Fattah Chandio

Abstract:

This study presents the designed features of Graphical User Interface (GUI) for chromatic dispersion (CD) reduction using digital signal processing (DSP) techniques. GUI is specially designed for windows platform. The obtained simulation results from matlab are presented via this GUI. After importing results from matlab in GUI, It will present your work on any windows7 and onwards versions platforms without matlab software. First part of the GUI contains the research methodology block diagram and in the second part, output for each stage is shown in separate reserved area for the result display. Each stage of methodology has the captions to display the results. This GUI will be very helpful during presentations instead of making slides this GUI will present all your work easily in the absence of other software’s such as Matlab, Labview, MS PowerPoint. GUI is designed using C programming in MS Visio Studio.

Keywords: Matlab simulation results, C programming, MS VISIO studio, chromatic dispersion

Procedia PDF Downloads 446
3015 Calibration of Discrete Element Method Parameters for Modelling DRI Pellets Flow

Authors: A. Hossein Madadi-Najafabadi, Masoud Nasiri

Abstract:

The discrete element method is a powerful technique for numerical modeling the flow of granular materials such as direct reduced iron. It would enable us to study processes and equipment related to the production and handling of the material. However, the characteristics and properties of the granules have to be adjusted precisely to achieve reliable results in a DEM simulation. The main properties for DEM simulation are size distribution, density, Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and the contact coefficients of restitution, rolling friction and sliding friction. In the present paper, the mentioned properties are determined for DEM simulation of DRI pellets. A reliable DEM simulation would contribute to optimizing the handling system of DRIs in an iron-making plant. Among the mentioned properties, Young's modulus is the most important parameter, which is usually hard to get for particulate solids. Here, an especial method is utilized to precisely determine this parameter for DRI.

Keywords: discrete element method, direct reduced iron, simulation parameters, granular material

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
3014 Wave of Islamic Fintech: Revolutionizing Malaysia's Islamic Banking and Finance Regulatory Landscape

Authors: Ho Wen Hui, Azwina Wati Abdull Manaf, Asfarina Kartika Mohd Shakri

Abstract:

The global trend of Fintech had taken the Malaysian shore by storm in recent years, thus making the studies and observations of its impacts more critical than ever. Additionally, Fintech has grown to become an unavoidable subject in the Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF) industry. In relation to that, this paper seeks to analyze the development of Fintech parallel with the IBF industry and its connection to Islamic economics. While the scarcity of studies on this area is apparent, it is found that there is a need to regulate the development of the Fintech Industry and its effects while analyzing the ramifications and positive effects of Fintech towards parties involved in IBF industry. This paper objectively studies the phenomenon of Islamic Fintech around the world as a whole as well as more specifically in Malaysia. The paper will then explore on the existing regulatory instruments in Malaysia, study their boundaries as well as limitations and contribute on possible reform to regulate Islamic Fintech in this jurisdiction. It is aimed that this paper will prompt and encourage more thorough studies to be conducted on the topic of Fintech which would subsequently contribute to a positive growth of the IBF industry worldwide.

Keywords: financial technology, FinTech, Islamic banking & finance, regulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
3013 The Impact of Financial Literacy to the Retirement Planning on Malaysian Household

Authors: Stanley Yap, Patrick Kee Peng Kong, Chong Wei Ying, Leow Hon Wei

Abstract:

Purpose: This study examines the comprehensive household retirement planning based on the level of financial literacy in Malaysia. Sufficient financial literacy is essential to make financial decision on Malaysian household retirement planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: Numerous measurements consist of present value of total retirement fund needed, future value of the expenses and inflation-adjusted interest rate are used in this paper. Therefore, we are able to identify the retirement gap that needs to be considered immediately. Findings: Our results show, firstly, adequate financial literacy is vital to achieve long term household retirement planning. Secondly, there is no retirement gap where the future value of the existing financial assets is greater than the lump sum needs during retirement phase. Thirdly, financial assets should be prepared in early age to accumulate substantial funding to support household retirement life. Practical Implications: The outcomes benefit to retiree and working adults. It highlights the importance of financial literacy to retirement planning. It is also a milestone for Malaysian to achieve developed country if Malaysian has sufficient retirement funding. Originality/Value: There is currently lack of in-depth research on financial literacy related to household retirement planning. Further, the paper also focusses on financial literacy, as a means to assist those in funding retirement resources, in order to fulfil the retirement gap.

Keywords: financial literacy, retirement planning, retirement resources, retirement gap, Malaysian household

Procedia PDF Downloads 448
3012 The AI Arena: A Framework for Distributed Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Authors: Edward W. Staley, Corban G. Rivera, Ashley J. Llorens

Abstract:

Advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have resulted in recent breakthroughs in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) across many different domains. An emerging landscape of development environments is making powerful RL techniques more accessible for a growing community of researchers. However, most existing frameworks do not directly address the problem of learning in complex operating environments, such as dense urban settings or defense-related scenarios, that incorporate distributed, heterogeneous teams of agents. To help enable AI research for this important class of applications, we introduce the AI Arena: a scalable framework with flexible abstractions for distributed multi-agent reinforcement learning. The AI Arena extends the OpenAI Gym interface to allow greater flexibility in learning control policies across multiple agents with heterogeneous learning strategies and localized views of the environment. To illustrate the utility of our framework, we present experimental results that demonstrate performance gains due to a distributed multi-agent learning approach over commonly-used RL techniques in several different learning environments.

Keywords: reinforcement learning, multi-agent, deep learning, artificial intelligence

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3011 Exploring the Social Factors of a Country that Influence International Migration: A Sociological Perspective

Authors: Md. Shahriar Sabuz

Abstract:

Different social factors influence individuals to migrate from their native lands. This qualitative study was designed to analyze the main social factors that have a significant role in the movement of people across borders. In this study, two research questions, i.e., ‘Which social factors of a country significantly influence the persons' decision to migrate from their homeland?’ and ’2: do different social factors of a country influence the process of international migration?" were formulated and relevant data were analyzed to get the logical answer to these two questions. Data analysis revealed that people migrate in large numbers due to deplorable and unsafe social conditions in their home countries. Sometimes migration occurs due to a lack of basic facilities in native countries. It is quite significant to know that these social conditions create a sense of deprivation and insecurity in individuals, and they move to other lands to get a sense of achievement and greater security for themselves and their whole families. This study is significant and distinct from previous studies in that it provides comprehensive information about the major social factors responsible for international migrations and their role in influencing an individual's proclivity to migrate. Besides this, it greatly opens new horizons of research and analysis for other researchers working on the agenda of international migration.

Keywords: International migration, social factors, income inequality, social discrimination

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
3010 Developing and Evaluating Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 282
3009 Review of Dielectric Permittivity Measurement Techniques

Authors: Ahmad H. Abdelgwad, Galal E. Nadim, Tarek M. Said, Amr M. Gody

Abstract:

The prime objective of this manuscript is to provide intensive review of the techniques used for permittivity measurements. The measurement techniques, relevant for any desired application, rely on the nature of the measured dielectric material, both electrically and physically, the degree of accuracy required, and the frequency of interest. Regardless of the way that distinctive sorts of instruments can be utilized, measuring devices that provide reliable determinations of the required electrical properties including the obscure material in the frequency range of interest can be considered. The challenge in making precise dielectric property or permittivity measurements is in designing of the material specimen holder for those measurements (RF and MW frequency ranges) and adequately modeling the circuit for reliable computation of the permittivity from the electrical measurements. If the RF circuit parameters such as the impedance or admittance are estimated appropriately at a certain frequency, the material’s permittivity at this frequency can be estimated by the equations which relate the way in which the dielectric properties of the material affect on the parameters of the circuit.

Keywords: dielectric permittivity, free space measurement, waveguide techniques, coaxial probe, cavity resonator

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
3008 Planning Strategies for Urban Flood Mitigation through Different Case Studies of Best Practices across the World

Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

Abstract:

Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
3007 A Soft System Methodology Approach to Stakeholder Engagement in Water Sensitive Urban Design

Authors: Lina Lukusa, Ulrike Rivett

Abstract:

Poor water management can increase the extreme pressure already faced by water scarcity. Unless water management is addressed holistically, water quality and quantity will continue to degrade. A holistic approach to water management named Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) has thus been created to facilitate the effective management of water. Traditionally, water management has employed a linear design approach, while WSUD requires a systematic, cyclical approach. In simple terms, WSUD assumes that everything is connected. Hence, it is critical for different stakeholders involved in WSUD to engage and reach a consensus on a solution. However, many stakeholders in WSUD have conflicting interests. Using the soft system methodology (SSM), developed by Peter Checkland, as a problem-solving method, decision-makers can understand this problematic situation from different world views. The SSM addresses ill and complex challenging situations involving human activities in a complex structured scenario. This paper demonstrates how SSM can be applied to understand the complexity of stakeholder engagement in WSUD. The paper concludes that SSM is an adequate solution to understand a complex problem better and then propose efficient solutions.

Keywords: co-design, ICT platform, soft systems methodology, water sensitive urban design

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
3006 Multi Objective Optimization for Two-Sided Assembly Line Balancing

Authors: Srushti Bhatt, M. B. Kiran

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Two-sided assembly line balancing problem is yet to be addressed simply to compete for the global market for manufacturers. The task assigned in an ordered sequence to get optimum performance of the system is known as assembly line balancing problem mainly classified as single and two sided. It is very challenging in manufacturing industries to balance two-sided assembly line, wherein the set of sequential workstations the task operations are performed in two sides of the line. The conflicting major objective in two-sided assembly line balancing problem is either to maximize /minimize the performance parameters. The present study emphases on combining different evolutionary algorithm; ant colony, Tabu search and petri net method; and compares their results of an algorithm for solving two-sided assembly line balancing problem. The concept of multi objective optimization of performance parameters is now a day adopted to make a decision involving more than one objective function to be simultaneously optimized. The optimum result can be expected among the selected methods using multi-objective optimization. The performance parameters considered in the present study are a number of workstation, slickness and smoothness index. The simulation of the assembly line balancing problem provides optimal results of classical and practical problems.

Keywords: Ant colony, petri net, tabu search, two sided ALBP

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
3005 Support of Syrian Refugees: The Roles of Descriptive and Injunctive Norms, Perception of Threat, and Negative Emotions

Authors: Senay Yitmen

Abstract:

This research investigated individual’s support and helping intentions towards Syrian refugees in Turkey. This is examined in relation to perceived threat and negative emotions, and also to the perceptions of whether one’s intimate social network (family and friends) considers Syrians a threat (descriptive network norm) and whether this network morally supports Syrian refugees (injunctive norms). A questionnaire study was conducted among Turkish participants (n= 565) and the results showed that perception of threat was associated with negative emotions which, in turn, were related to less support of Syrian refugees. Additionally, descriptive norms moderated the relationship between perceived threat and negative emotions towards Syrian refugees. Furthermore, injunctive norms moderated the relationship between negative emotions and support to Syrian refugees. Specifically, the findings indicate that perceived threat is associated with less support of Syrian refugees through negative emotions when descriptive norms are weak and injunctive norms are strong. Injunctive norms appear to trigger a dilemma over the decision to conform or not to conform: when one has negative emotions as a result of perceived threat, it becomes more difficult to conform to the moral obligation of injunctive norms which is associated with less support of Syrian refugees. Hence, these findings demonstrate that both descriptive and injunctive norms are important and play different roles in individual’s support of Syrian refugees.

Keywords: descriptive norms, emotions, injunctive norms, the perception of threat

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
3004 Biofeedback-Driven Sound and Image Generation

Authors: Claudio Burguez, María Castelló, Mikaela Pisani, Marcos Umpiérrez

Abstract:

BIOFEEDBACK exhibition offers a unique experience for each visitor, combining art, neuroscience, and technology in an interactive way. Using a headband that captures the bioelectric activity of the brain, the visitors are able to generate sound and images in a sequence loop, making them an integral part of the artwork. Through this interactive exhibit, visitors gain a deeper appreciation of the beauty and complexity of the brain. As a special takeaway, visitors will receive an NFT as a present, allowing them to continue their engagement with the exhibition beyond the physical space. We used the EEG Biofeedback technique following a closed-loop neuroscience approach, transforming EEG data captured by a Muse S headband in real-time into audiovisual stimulation. PureData is used for sound generation and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for image generation. Thirty participants have experienced the exhibition. For some individuals, it was easier to focus than others. Participants who said they could focus during the exhibit stated that at one point, they felt that they could control the sound, while images were more abstract, and they did not feel that they were able to control them.

Keywords: art, audiovisual, biofeedback, EEG, NFT, neuroscience, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 58
3003 Optimising Urban Climate at Mesoscale: The Case of Floor-Area-Ratio Modelling and Energy Planning Integration

Authors: Ali Cheshmehzangi, Ayotunde Dawodu

Abstract:

In urban planning, Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of the site plays a major role in the multiplicity of performances, from humane living environments to energy performance. When one considers the astounding volume of new housing that is going to be constructed across the globe during the next few decades due to growing urbanisation (e.g. particularly in developing world), it is imperative that we have an empirically grounded grasp of which building configurations are more energy efficient. As a common planning metric, it would be helpful to know exactly how managing FAR connects with energy efficiency. Hence, this study puts together a set of modelling of various FARs for a typical residential compound and address the considerations of energy planning integration in the practice of building configuration and urban planning. Such decision makings at the planning and design stage enable us to provide pathways of optimising urban climate at mesoscale of the built environment, i.e. the neighbourhood or community level. In this study, a comparative study is conducted using Eco-Tect Software, using a case study in the City of Ningbo, China. Findings of the study contribute to identifying scenarios of various FAR use and energy planning at mesoscale. The final results contribute to studies in urban climate, from the perspectives of urban planning, energy planning, and urban modelling.

Keywords: China, energy planning, FAR, floor-area-ratio, mesoscale, urban climate, urban modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
3002 The Influence of E-Health Education on Professional Practice: A Qualitative Study

Authors: Sisira Edirippulige, Anthony C. Smith, Sumudu Wickramasinghe, Nigel R. Armfield

Abstract:

Background: E-Health is steadily integrating into modern health services, making significant changes in the way health services are traditionally delivered. To work in this new environment, healthcare workers are required to have new knowledge, skills, and competencies specific to e-Health. The aim of this study was to understand the self-reported perceptions of graduates regarding the influence of an e-Health postgraduate program on their professional careers. Methods: All graduates from 2005 to 2015 were surveyed using an online questionnaire that consisted of a mixture of closed and open-ended questions. Results: The number of participants in the study was 32. Response rate was 62%. Graduates thought that the postgraduate e-Health program had an influence on their professional practice. The majority of the participants mentioned that they had worked in the e-Health field since their graduation. Their professional roles mainly involved implementation of e-Health in health service settings and the use of e-Health in clinical practice. Conclusions: While e-Health may be steadily integrating into modern health services, e-Health specific job opportunities are still relatively limited. E-Health workforce development must be given priority.

Keywords: e-health, postgraduate education, clinical practice, curriculum

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
3001 Chemical Durability of Textured Glass-coat Suitable for Building Application

Authors: Adejo Andrew Ojonugwa, Jomboh Jeff Kator, Garkida Adele Dzikwi

Abstract:

This study investigates the behaviour of textured glass coat to chemical reactions upon application. Samples of textured glass coat developed from mixed post consumer glass were subjected to pH test (ASTM D5464), Chemical resistance test (ASTM D3260 and D1308), Adhesion test (ASTM D3359), and Abrasion test (ASTM D4060). Results shows a pH of 8.50, Chemical resistance of 5% flick rate when reacted with Sodium hydroxide (NaOH), a 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15% discolouration when reacted with Magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)2), Hydrogen fluoride (HF), Potassium hydroxide (KOH) and NaOH respectively, an adhesion of 4A and abrasion of 0.2g. The results confirm that the developed textured glass coat is in line with the standard pH range of 8-9, resistant to acid and base except for HF, NaOH, and Mg(OH)₂, good adhesion and abrasion properties, thereby making the coat resistant to chemical degradation and a good engineering material.

Keywords: chemical durability, glass-coat, building, recycling

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3000 A Survey of the Constraints Associated with the Mechanized Tillage of the Fadama Using Animal Drawn Tillage Implements

Authors: L. G. Abubakar, A. M. El-Okene, M. L. Suleiman, Z. Abubakar

Abstract:

Fadama tillage in Northern Nigeria and in Zaria in particular, has relied on manual labour and corresponding implements which are associated with drudgery, loss of human energy due to bending and reduced productivity. A survey was conducted to study the present tillage practices and determine the constraints associated with the use of animal traction for mechanized tillage of the Fadama. The study revealed that Fadama farmers (mostly aged between 36 and 60 years) use manual labour with tools like small hoe, big hoe and rake to till during the dry season (October of one year to March of the next year). Most of the Fadama farmers believe that tillage operations like ploughing, harrowing and basin making are very important tillage activities in the preparation of seedbeds for crops like green maize, sugarcane and vegetables, but are constrained to using animal traction for tillage due to beliefs like unsuitability of the workbulls and corresponding implements, Fadama soil being too heavy for the system and the non-attainment of deep tillage required by crops like sugarcane and potato. These were affirmed by local blacksmiths of animal traction implements and agricultural officers of government establishments.

Keywords: snimal traction, Fadama, tillage implements, workbulls

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2999 Nanotechnology as a Futuristic Approach to Architecture with Special Reference to Chandigarh

Authors: Chaudhary Archana, Dhingra Poshika

Abstract:

The architecture of the world is at a crossroads with the advent of new technology. The issues of energy efficiency and global warming are getting important with the coming times. New technologies are making their mark. For the architecture profession, nanotechnology will greatly impact construction materials and their properties. Nanotechnology, the understanding and control of matter at a scale of one to one hundred billions of a meter, is bringing incredible changes to the materials and processes of buildings. Materials will behave in many different ways as we are able to more precisely control their properties at the nanoscale. It is precisely called the next industrial revolution. We live in an age where scientific progress continues to transform human lifestyle. This is evermore true when it comes to the progress being made in the field of nanotechnology. This science stands to change and advance the practice of design in a multitude of ways – where architectural progress is being made at the molecular level. The nanotechnology has already been adopted in various buildings across the world. What an impact it shall have on the futuristic architecture in Chandigarh, India shall be discussed in the paper. But before we hurtle off toward a nano-utopia, we need to step back and ask ourselves whether this is a direction in which we really want to go.

Keywords: building materials, energy efficiency, nanotechnology, sustainability

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2998 Application of Public Access Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic and Distributed Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Ungauged Basins

Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
2997 Development of Geo-computational Model for Analysis of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Lassa Fever Outbreak Prediction

Authors: Adekunle Taiwo Adenike, I. K. Ogundoyin

Abstract:

Lassa fever is a neglected tropical virus that has become a significant public health issue in Nigeria, with the country having the greatest burden in Africa. This paper presents a Geo-Computational Model for Analysis and Prediction of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Outbreaks in Nigeria. The model investigates the dynamics of the virus with respect to environmental factors and human populations. It confirms the role of the rodent host in virus transmission and identifies how climate and human population are affected. The proposed methodology is carried out on a Linux operating system using the OSGeoLive virtual machine for geographical computing, which serves as a base for spatial ecology computing. The model design uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the performance evaluation uses machine learning algorithms such as random forest, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study aims to contribute to the control of Lassa fever, which is achievable through the combined efforts of public health professionals and geocomputational and machine learning tools. The research findings will potentially be more readily accepted and utilized by decision-makers for the attainment of Lassa fever elimination.

Keywords: geo-computational model, lassa fever dynamics, lassa fever, outbreak prediction, nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
2996 Risk Assessment for International Investment: A Standardized Approach to Identify Risk, Risk Appetite, Risk Rating, Risk Treatment and Mitigation Plans

Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

Abstract:

Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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2995 Research on the Evaluation of Enterprise-University-Research Cooperation Ability in Hubei Province

Authors: Dongfang Qiu, Yilin Lu

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The measurement of enterprise-university-research cooperative efficiency has important meanings in improving the cooperative efficiency, strengthening the effective integration of regional resource, enhancing the ability of regional innovation and promoting the development of regional economy. The paper constructs the DEA method and DEA-Malmquist productivity index method to research the cooperation efficiency of Hubei by making comparisons with other provinces in China. The study found out the index of technology efficiency is 0.52 and the enterprise-university- research cooperative efficiency is Non-DEA efficient. To realize the DEA efficiency of Hubei province, the amount of 1652.596 R&D employees and 638.368 R&D employees’ full time equivalence should be reduced or 137.89 billion yuan of new products’ sales income be increased. Finally, it puts forward policy recommendations on existing problems to strengthen the standings of the cooperation, realize the effective application of the research results, and improve the level of management of enterprise-university-research cooperation efficiency.

Keywords: cooperation ability, DEA method, enterprise-university-research cooperation, Malmquist efficiency index

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2994 Methods of Interpolating Temperature and Rainfall Distribution in Northern Vietnam

Authors: Thanh Van Hoang, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Yi Min Huang, Xuan Linh Nguyen

Abstract:

Reliable information on the spatial distribution of annual rainfall and temperature is essential in research projects relating to urban and regional planning. This research presents results of a classification of temperature and rainfall in the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam based on measurements from seven meteorological stations (Ha Nam, Hung Yen, Lang, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Phu Lien, Thai Binh) in the river basin over a thirty-years period from 1982-2011. The average accumulated rainfall trends in the delta are analysed and form the basis of research essential to weather and climate forecasting. This study employs interpolation based on the Kriging Method for daily rainfall (min and max) and daily temperature (min and max) in order to improve the understanding of sources of variation and uncertainly in these important meteorological parameters. To the Kriging method, the results will show the different models and the different parameters based on the various precipitation series. The results provide a useful reference to assist decision makers in developing smart agriculture strategies for the Red River Delta in Vietnam.

Keywords: spatial interpolation method, ArcGIS, temperature variability, rainfall variability, Red River Delta, Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
2993 Delay Studies in Construction: Synthesis, Critical Evaluation, and the Way Forward

Authors: Abdullah Alsehaimi

Abstract:

Over decades, there have been many studies of delay in construction, and this type of study continues to be popular in construction management research. A synthesis and critical evaluation of delay studies in developing countries reveals that poor project management is cited as one of the main causes of delay. However, despite such consensus, most of the previous studies fall short in providing clear recommendations demonstrating how project management practice could be improved. Moreover, the majority of recommendations are general and not devoted to solving the difficulties associated with particular delay causes. This paper aims to demonstrate that the root cause of this state of affairs is that typical research into delay tends to be descriptive and explanatory, making it inadequate for solving persistent managerial problems in construction. It is contended that many problems in construction could be mitigated via alternative research approaches, i.e. action and constructive research. Such prescriptive research methods can assist in the development and implementation of innovative tools tackling managerial problems of construction, including that of delay. In so doing, those methods will better connect research and practice, and thus strengthen the relevance of academic construction management.

Keywords: construction delay, action research, constructive research, industrial engineering

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2992 Modified Naive Bayes-Based Prediction Modeling for Crop Yield Prediction

Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: tomato yield prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy, WSG

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2991 Asymmetric Warfare: Exploratory Study of the Implicit Defense Strategy of the People's Republic of China in 2012-2016

Authors: María Victoria Alvarez Magañini, Lautaro Nahuel Rubbi

Abstract:

According to different theories, the hegemonic war between the United States and the People's Republic of China seems to be imminent. However, nowadays, it is clear that China's conventional military capacity is inferior to that of the United States. Nevertheless, the conditions that in the past were considered to be an indicator of validity in asymmetrical warfare, at present, in a possible asymmetric war scenario, are no longer considered to be taken as such. The military capacity is not the only concept that represents the main indicator of victory. The organisation and the use of forces are also an essential part of it. The present paper aims to analyze the Chinese Defense Strategy in relation to the concept of asymmetric warfare in the face of a possible war with the United States. The starting point will be developed on the basis of application of the theory which corresponds to the concept aforementioned making focus on recent developments of the People’s Republic of China in the field of non-conventional defense. A comparative analysis of the conventional forces of both powers/countries will also be carried out.

Keywords: asymmetric warfare, China, United States, hegemonic warfare

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2990 Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome: A Case Study and Discussion of Its Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, Diagnosis, and Management

Authors: Zayd Parekh, Amish Prasad, Baraa Souman

Abstract:

Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is characterized by orthostatic intolerance due to an exaggerated tachycardia in response to standing upright. This exaggerated orthostatic tachycardia is defined as the heart rate (HR) rising 30 beats above a baseline value while supine or seated within ten minutes. The tachycardia can lead to symptoms of orthostatic intolerance such as palpitations, lightheadedness, exercise intolerance, fatigue, and anxiety. POTS can go undiagnosed for many years due to its similarities with other cardiac and psychiatric conditions and nonspecific presentation, making it crucial to raise awareness for it in the medical field. The following case study discusses a 30-year-old female who was evaluated in the emergency room several times before being referred to the clinic for POTS. An overview of what tests are performed with this patient is also provided, highlighting the diagnostic work-up for POTS and the process of ruling out other differentials being considered. Finally, the epidemiology, the various theories regarding its pathophysiology, the diagnostic process, and pharmacological and non-pharmacological management for POTS are reviewed.

Keywords: orthostatic intolerance, postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, syncope, tachycardia

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2989 Identify Users Behavior from Mobile Web Access Logs Using Automated Log Analyzer

Authors: Bharat P. Modi, Jayesh M. Patel

Abstract:

Mobile Internet is acting as a major source of data. As the number of web pages continues to grow the Mobile web provides the data miners with just the right ingredients for extracting information. In order to cater to this growing need, a special term called Mobile Web mining was coined. Mobile Web mining makes use of data mining techniques and deciphers potentially useful information from web data. Web Usage mining deals with understanding the behavior of users by making use of Mobile Web Access Logs that are generated on the server while the user is accessing the website. A Web access log comprises of various entries like the name of the user, his IP address, a number of bytes transferred time-stamp etc. A variety of Log Analyzer tools exists which help in analyzing various things like users navigational pattern, the part of the website the users are mostly interested in etc. The present paper makes use of such log analyzer tool called Mobile Web Log Expert for ascertaining the behavior of users who access an astrology website. It also provides a comparative study between a few log analyzer tools available.

Keywords: mobile web access logs, web usage mining, web server, log analyzer

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
2988 Operationalizing the Concept of Community Resilience through Community Capitals Framework-Based Index

Authors: Warda Ajaz

Abstract:

This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 252