Search results for: early childhood numbers
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5151

Search results for: early childhood numbers

1521 An Evaluation of Full-Scale Reinforced Concrete and Steel Girder Composite Members Using High Volume Fly-Ash

Authors: Sung-Won Yoo, Chul-Hyeon Kang, Kyoung-Tae Park, Hae-Sik Woo

Abstract:

Numerous studies were dedicated on the High Volume Fly-Ash (HVFA) concrete using high volume fly ash. The material properties of HVFA concrete have been the primordial topics of early studies, and interest shifted gradually toward the structural behavior of HVFA concrete such as elasticity modulus, stress-strain relationship, and structural behavior. However, structural studies consider small-scale members limited to the scope of reinforced concrete only. Therefore, in this paper, on the basis of recent studies on the structural behavior, 2 full-scale test members were manufactured with 7.5 m span length, fly ash replacement ratio of 50 % and concrete compressive strength of 50 MPa in order to evaluate the practicability of HVFA to real structures. In addition, 2 steel composite test members were also manufactured with span length of 3 m and using the same HVFA concrete for the same purpose. The test results of full-scale RC members showed that the practical use of HVFA on such structures is not hard despite small differences between test results and existing research results on the stress-strain relationship. The flexural test revealed very little difference between 50% fly ash concrete and general concrete in view of the similarity exhibited by the displacement and strain patterns. The experimental concrete shear strength being very close to that of design code, the existing design code can be applied. From the flexural test results of steel girder composite members, the composite behavior can be secured as much as that using normal concrete under the condition of sufficient arrangement of reinforcing bar.

Keywords: composite, fly ash, full-scale, high volume

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1520 Investigation of Overarching Effects of Artificial Intelligence Implementation into Education Through Research Synthesis

Authors: Justin Bin

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has been rapidly rising in usage recently, already active in the daily lives of millions, from distinguished AIs like the popular ChatGPT or Siri to more obscure, inconspicuous AIs like those used in social media or internet search engines. As upcoming generations grow immersed in emerging technology, AI will play a vital role in their development. Namely, the education sector, an influential portion of a person’s early life as a student, faces a vast ocean of possibilities concerning the implementation of AI. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effect that AI will have on the future of the educational field. More particularly, this study delves deeper into the following three categories: school admissions, the productivity of students, and ethical concerns (role of human teachers, purpose of schooling itself, and significance of diplomas). This study synthesizes research and data on the current effects of AI on education from various published literature sources and journals, as well as estimates on further AI potential, in order to determine the main, overarching effects it will have on the future of education. For this study, a systematic organization of data in terms of type (quantitative vs. qualitative), the magnitude of effect implicated, and other similar factors were implemented within each area of significance. The results of the study suggest that AI stands to change all the beforementioned subgroups. However, its specific effects vary in magnitude and favorability (beneficial or harmful) and will be further discussed. The results discussed will reveal to those affiliated with the education field, such as teachers, counselors, or even parents of students, valuable information on not just the projected possibilities of AI in education but the effects of those changes moving forward.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, education, schools, teachers

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1519 The Role of Citizen Journalism on the Rising of Public Awareness in the Kurdistan Region Government-Iraq

Authors: Abdulsamad Qadir Hussien

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The development of new technology in recent years has offered ordinary people various online digital platform tools and internet access to provide news stories, information, and subjects of public interest in the Kurdistan Region Government-Iraq (KRI). This shifting aspect has offered more chances for ordinary people to engage with other individuals on many issues in order to discuss and argue matters relating to their everyday lives. The key purpose of this research project will examine the role of citizen journalism in the increase of public awareness in the Kurdish community in the KRi; particularly, citizen journalism provides a new opportunity for ordinary people to raise their voices about problems and public matters in the KRI. The sample of this research project encompasses ordinary people who use social media platforms as sources of information and news concerning the KRI government policy. In the research project, the focus is on the ordinary people who are interacting with the blogs, posts, and footage that are produced by citizen journalism. The questionnaire was sent to more than 1,000 participants in the Kurdish community; this aspect produces statistically acceptable numbers to obtain a significant result for this research project. The sampling process is mainly based on the survey method in this study. The online questionnaire form includes many sections, which are divided into four key sections. The first section contains socio-demographic questions, including gender, age, and level of education. The research project applied the survey method in order to gather data and information surrounding the role of citizen journalism in increasing awareness of individuals in the Kurdish community. For this purpose, the researcher designed a questionnaire as the primary tool for the data collection process from ordinary people who use social media as a source of news and information. During the research project, online questionnaires were mailed in two ways – via Facebook and email – to participants in the Kurdish community, and this questionnaire looked for answers to questions from ordinary people, such as to what extent citizen journalism helps users to obtain information and news about public affairs and government policy. The research project found that citizen journalism has an essential role in increasing awareness of the Kurdish community, especially mainstream journalism has helped ordinary people to raise their voices in the KRI. Furthermore, citizen journalism carries more advantages as digital sources of news, footage, and information related to public affairs. This study provides useful tools to fore the news stories that are unreachable to professional journalists in the KRI.

Keywords: citizen journalism, public awareness, demonstration and democracy, social media news

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1518 Assessment and Forecasting of the Impact of Negative Environmental Factors on Public Health

Authors: Nurlan Smagulov, Aiman Konkabayeva, Akerke Sadykova, Arailym Serik

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Introduction. Adverse environmental factors do not immediately lead to pathological changes in the body. They can exert the growth of pre-pathology characterized by shifts in physiological, biochemical, immunological and other indicators of the body state. These disorders are unstable, reversible and indicative of body reactions. There is an opportunity to objectively judge the internal structure of the adaptive body reactions at the level of individual organs and systems. In order to obtain a stable response of the body to the chronic effects of unfavorable environmental factors of low intensity (compared to production environment factors), a time called the «lag time» is needed. The obtained results without considering this factor distort reality and, for the most part, cannot be a reliable statement of the main conclusions in any work. A technique is needed to reduce methodological errors and combine mathematical logic using statistical methods and a medical point of view, which ultimately will affect the obtained results and avoid a false correlation. Objective. Development of a methodology for assessing and predicting the environmental factors impact on the population health considering the «lag time.» Methods. Research objects: environmental and population morbidity indicators. The database on the environmental state was compiled from the monthly newsletters of Kazhydromet. Data on population morbidity were obtained from regional statistical yearbooks. When processing static data, a time interval (lag) was determined for each «argument-function» pair. That is the required interval, after which the harmful factor effect (argument) will fully manifest itself in the indicators of the organism's state (function). The lag value was determined by cross-correlation functions of arguments (environmental indicators) with functions (morbidity). Correlation coefficients (r) and their reliability (t), Fisher's criterion (F) and the influence share (R2) of the main factor (argument) per indicator (function) were calculated as a percentage. Results. The ecological situation of an industrially developed region has an impact on health indicators, but it has some nuances. Fundamentally opposite results were obtained in the mathematical data processing, considering the «lag time». Namely, an expressed correlation was revealed after two databases (ecology-morbidity) shifted. For example, the lag period was 4 years for dust concentration, general morbidity, and 3 years – for childhood morbidity. These periods accounted for the maximum values of the correlation coefficients and the largest percentage of the influencing factor. Similar results were observed in relation to the concentration of soot, dioxide, etc. The comprehensive statistical processing using multiple correlation-regression variance analysis confirms the correctness of the above statement. This method provided the integrated approach to predicting the degree of pollution of the main environmental components to identify the most dangerous combinations of concentrations of leading negative environmental factors. Conclusion. The method of assessing the «environment-public health» system (considering the «lag time») is qualitatively different from the traditional (without considering the «lag time»). The results significantly differ and are more amenable to a logical explanation of the obtained dependencies. The method allows presenting the quantitative and qualitative dependence in a different way within the «environment-public health» system.

Keywords: ecology, morbidity, population, lag time

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1517 Promoting Libraries' Services and Events by Librarians Led Instagram Account: A Case Study on Qatar National Library's Research and Learning Instagram Account

Authors: Maryam Alkhalosi, Ahmad Naddaf, Rana Alani

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Qatar National Library has its main accounts on social media, which presents the general image of the library and its daily news. A paper will be presented based on a case study researching the outcome of having a separate Instagram account led by librarians, not the Communication Department of the library. The main purpose of the librarians-led account is to promote librarians’ services and events, such as research consultation, reference questions, community engagement programs, collection marketing, etc. all in the way that librarians think it reflects their role in the community. Librarians had several obstacles to help users understanding librarians' roles. As was noticed that Instagram is the most popular social media platform in Qatar, it was selected to promote how librarians can help users through a focused account to create a direct channel between librarians and users. Which helps librarians understand users’ needs and interests. This research will use a quantitative approach depending on the case study, librarians have used their case in the department of Research and learning to find out the best practices might help in promoting the librarians' services and reaching out to a bigger number of users. Through the descriptive method, this research will describe the changes observed in the numbers of community users who interact with the Instagram account and engaged in librarians’ events. Statistics of this study are based on three main sources: 1. The internal monthly statistics sheet of events and programs held by the Research and Learning Department. 2. The weekly tracking of the Instagram account statistics. 3. Instagram’s tools such as polls, quizzes, questions, etc. This study will show the direct effect of a librarian-led Instagram account on the number of community members who participate and engage in librarian-led programs and services. In addition to highlighting the librarians' role directly with the community members. The study will also show the best practices on Instagram, which helps reaching a wider community of users. This study is important because, in the region, there is a lack of studies focusing on librarianship, especially on contemporary problems and its solution. Besides, there is a lack of understanding of the role of a librarian in the Arab region. The research will also highlight how librarians can help the public and researchers as well. All of these benefits can come through one popular easy channel in social media. From another side, this paper is a chance to share the details of this experience starting from scratch, including the phase of setting the policy and guidelines of managing the social media account, until librarians reached to a point where the benefits of this experience are in reality. This experience had even added many skills to the librarians.

Keywords: librarian’s role, social media, instagram and libraries, promoting libraries’ services

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1516 Overview of Pre-Analytical Lab Errors in a Tertiary Care Hospital at Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Authors: S. Saeed, T. Butt, M. Rehan, S. Khaliq

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Objective: To determine the frequency of pre-analytical errors in samples taken from patients for various lab tests at Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi. Material and Methods: All the lab specimens for diagnostic purposes received at the lab from Fauji Foundation hospital, Rawalpindi indoor and outdoor patients were included. Total number of samples received in the lab is recorded in the computerized program made for the hospital. All the errors observed for pre-analytical process including patient identification, sampling techniques, test collection procedures, specimen transport/processing and storage were recorded in the log book kept for the purpose. Results: A total of 476616 specimens were received in the lab during the period of study including 237931 and 238685 from outdoor and indoor patients respectively. Forty-one percent of the samples (n=197976) revealed pre-analytical discrepancies. The discrepancies included Hemolyzed samples (34.8%), Clotted blood (27.8%), Incorrect samples (17.4%), Unlabeled samples (8.9%), Insufficient specimens (3.9%), Request forms without authorized signature (2.9%), Empty containers (3.9%) and tube breakage during centrifugation (0.8%). Most of these pre-analytical discrepancies were observed in samples received from the wards revealing that inappropriate sample collection by the medical staff of the ward, as most of the outdoor samples are collected by the lab staff who are properly trained for sample collection. Conclusion: It is mandatory to educate phlebotomists and paramedical staff particularly performing duties in the wards regarding timing and techniques of sampling/appropriate container to use/early delivery of the samples to the lab to reduce pre-analytical errors.

Keywords: pre analytical lab errors, tertiary care hospital, hemolyzed, paramedical staff

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1515 Effects of the Supplementation of Potassium Humate at Different Levels to the Dairy Cows' Concentrated Mix during Dry Period on Early Lactation Yield Parameters and Dam/Calf Immunity

Authors: Cangir Uyarlar, E. Eren Gultepe, I. Sadi Cetingul, Ismail Bayram

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This study was conducted to investigate the effect of humic acid (Potassium Humate) at different levels on rations on the effects of both maternal and offspring health, metabolic parameters and immunity levels in transition dairy cows. For this purpose, 50 Holstein dairy cows divided 5 trial groups. Experimental groups were designed as follows: A) Control (0% Humas); B) 0.5 Humas (0,5% in concentrated diet); C) 1 Humas (1% in concentrated diet), D) 1,5 Humas (1,5% in concentrated diet), E) 2 Humas (2% in concentrated diet), respectively. The study lasted from the first day of the dry period to postpartum 30th day. Diets were prepared as isocaloric and isonitrogenic. In the experiment, the day on which the animals gave birth was accepted as ‘0 (zero)’ and blood was taken from tail vein (v. coccygea) at -60, -53, -46, -39, -32, -25, -18, -11, -4, 0, ; Colostrum samples were taken on days 0, 1 and 2; Blood samples were taken on days 0, 1, 2, 15 and 30 from the juguler vein (v. jugularis) of the new born calves. Total blood leukocyte, Lymphocyte, Monocyte, granulocytes, Hemoglobin, Hematocrit, MCV, MCH, MWC, RDW, PLT, MPV, PDW, PCT, NEFA, BHBA, Glucose, Total Cholesterol , Triglyceride, LDL, HDL, VLDL, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and Total IgG levels and colostrum IgG levels were determined in this experiment. The results suggest that although the supplementation of humic acid at 2% level adversely affected to production parameters, the addition of humic acid (potassium humate) to the concentrate mix during the dry period (particularly 0.5 and 1% levels) may provide an increasing on mother and the offspring immunity, some improving on serum metabolism parameters and enhancing the milk production.

Keywords: humic acid, dairy cow, calf, immunity

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1514 Effect of Recycled Grey Water on Bacterial Concrete

Authors: T. Deepa, S. R. Inchara, S. V. Venkatesh, Seema Tharannum

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Concrete is the most widely used structural material. It is made using locally available materials. However, Concrete has low tensile strength and may crack in the early days with exothermic hydration. Bacillus subtilis bacteria that form endospores is the biological agent considered in this study for Biomineralization or MICP (Microbially Induced Calcite Precipitation) Technique and to address the increased Construction water demand, Recycled Grey Water which is obtained from STP of PES University, opted in place of Potable water. In this work, M30 grade conventional concrete is designed using OPC 53 grade cement, Manufactured Sand, Natural coarse aggregates, and Potable water. Conventional Concrete (CC), Bacterial Concrete with Potable water (BS), and Recycled Grey Water concrete (RGW) are the three different concrete specimens casted. Experimental studies such as the strength test and the surface hardness test are conducted on Conventional and Bacterial concrete samples after 7, 28, and 56 days of curing. Concrete cubes are subjected to a temperature of 50° C to investigate the effect of higher temperature. Cracked cube specimens are observed for Self-healing - as well as microstructure analysis with Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), Energy Dispersive X-Ray Analysis (EDAX), and X-Ray Diffraction Analysis (XRD).Noticeable Calcium salt deposition is observed on the surface of BS and RGW cracked specimen. Surface hardness and EDAX test gave promising result on the advantage of using spore-forming bacteria in concrete. This is followed by the strength gain in Compression and Flexure. Results also indicate that Recycled Grey Water can be a substitute for Normal water in concrete.

Keywords: bacillus subtilis, bacterial concrete, recycled grey water, self-healing, surface hardness of concrete

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1513 Factors Contributing to Delayed Diagnosis and Treatment of Breast Cancer and Its Outcome in Jamhoriat Hospital Kabul, Afghanistan

Authors: Ahmad Jawad Fardin

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Over 60% of patients with breast cancer in Afghanistan present late with advanced stage III and IV, a major cause for the poor survival rate. The objectives of this study were to identify the contributing factors for the diagnosis and treatment delay and its outcome. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 318 patients with histologically confirmed breast cancer in the oncology department of Jamhoriat hospital, which is the first and only national cancer center in Afghanistan; data were collected from medical records and interviews conducted with women diagnosed with breast cancer, linear regression and logistic regression were used for analysis. Patient delay was defined as the time from first recognition of symptoms until first medical consultation and doctor form first consultation with a health care provider until histological confirmation of breast cancer. The mean age of patients was 49.2+_ 11.5years. The average time for the final diagnosis of breast cancer was 8.5 months; most patients had ductal carcinoma 260.7 (82%). Factors associated with delay were low education level 76% poor socioeconomic and cultural conditions 81% lack of cancer center 73% lack of screening 19%. The stage distribution was as follows stage IV 4 22% stage III 44.4% stage II 29.3% stage I 4.3%. Complex associated factors were identified to delayed the diagnosis of breast cancer and increased adverse outcomes consequently. Raising awareness and education in women, the establishment of cancer centers and providing accessible diagnosis service and screening, training of general practitioners; required to promote early detection, diagnosis and treatment.

Keywords: delayed diagnosis and poor outcome, breast cancer in Afghanistan, poor outcome of delayed breast cancer treatment, breast cancer delayed diagnosis and treatment in Afghanistan

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1512 Impact of Out-Of-Pocket Payments on Health Care Finance and Access to Health Care Services: The Case of Health Transformation Program in Turkey

Authors: Bengi Demirci

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Out-of-pocket payments have become one of the common models adopted by health care reforms all over the world, and they have serious implications for not only the financial set-up of the health care systems in question but also for the people involved in terms of their access to the health care services provided. On the one hand, out-of-pocket payments are used in raising resources for the finance of the health care system and in decreasing non-essential health care expenses by having a deterrent role on the patients. On the other hand, out-of-pocket payment model causes regressive distribution effect by putting more burdens on the lower income groups and making them refrain from using health care services. Being a relatively incipient country having adopted the out-of-pocket payment model within the context of its Health Transformation Program which has been ongoing since the early 2000s, Turkey provides a good case for re-evaluating the pros and cons of this model in order not to sacrifice equality in access to health care for raising revenue for health care finance and vice versa. Therefore this study aims at analyzing the impact of out-of-pocket payments on the health finance system itself and on the patients’ access to healthcare services in Turkey where out-of-pocket payment model has been in use for a while. In so doing, data showing the revenue obtained from out-of-pocket payments and their share in health care finance are analyzed. In addition to this, data showing the change in the amount of expenditure made by patients on health care services after the adoption of out-of-pocket payments and the change in the use of various health care services in the meanwhile are examined. It is important for the incipient countries like Turkey to be careful in striking the right balance between the objective of cost efficiency and that of equality in accessing health care services while adopting the out-of-pocket payment model.

Keywords: health care access, health care finance, health reform, out-of-pocket payments

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1511 Quality-Of-Service-Aware Green Bandwidth Allocation in Ethernet Passive Optical Network

Authors: Tzu-Yang Lin, Chuan-Ching Sue

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Sleep mechanisms are commonly used to ensure the energy efficiency of each optical network unit (ONU) that concerns a single class delay constraint in the Ethernet Passive Optical Network (EPON). How long the ONUs can sleep without violating the delay constraint has become a research problem. Particularly, we can derive an analytical model to determine the optimal sleep time of ONUs in every cycle without violating the maximum class delay constraint. The bandwidth allocation considering such optimal sleep time is called Green Bandwidth Allocation (GBA). Although the GBA mechanism guarantees that the different class delay constraints do not violate the maximum class delay constraint, packets with a more relaxed delay constraint will be treated as those with the most stringent delay constraint and may be sent early. This means that the ONU will waste energy in active mode to send packets in advance which did not need to be sent at the current time. Accordingly, we proposed a QoS-aware GBA using a novel intra-ONU scheduling to control the packets to be sent according to their respective delay constraints, thereby enhancing energy efficiency without deteriorating delay performance. If packets are not explicitly classified but with different packet delay constraints, we can modify the intra-ONU scheduling to classify packets according to their packet delay constraints rather than their classes. Moreover, we propose the switchable ONU architecture in which the ONU can switch the architecture according to the sleep time length, thus improving energy efficiency in the QoS-aware GBA. The simulation results show that the QoS-aware GBA ensures that packets in different classes or with different delay constraints do not violate their respective delay constraints and consume less power than the original GBA.

Keywords: Passive Optical Networks, PONs, Optical Network Unit, ONU, energy efficiency, delay constraint

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1510 An Electron Microscopic Study of Developing Human Fetal Pancreas

Authors: Gupta Renu, T. S. Roy

Abstract:

Introduction: For the prospect of successful replacement therapies in treatment of Diabetes mallitus it is necessary to know events occurring during normal human pancreas development. Literature of human pancreas development are few in number as well as mainly related to first trimester because of ethical and technical difficulties. So the study was conducted on 12 fetuses from 12 gestational weeks (GW) to 5 months of infant to know normal development of exocrine and endocrine part of human pancreas. Material and Methods: Human fetalpancreases were screened by haematoxyline and eosin staining and done electron microscopy for suitable specimens to know ultrastructural detail of fetal pancreas. Results:It was observed arborized tubules, the cells budding out from these tubules differentiated into primitive acini and islets in 12thGW. At 14 weeks scanty granules were observed in the endocrine cells which coincided with the capillary invasion of the islets. The ducts and acini were surrounded by well-organized connective tissue. The acinihad elongated cells, small amount of cytoplasm and large open face euchromatic nuclei with single nucleolus. The mature form of islets of Langerhans was observed close to the acini and duct in 20 GW fetus. Connective tissue around the duct was well organized.No significant developmental change was observed early postnatal, infant. Conclusion: The development of both component exocrine as well as endocrine part of human fetal pancreas was studied by light and electron microscopy. Observations suggested that the fetal pancreas contained mainly ducts, few acini, many centroacinar cells, and large undifferentiated tissue.

Keywords: gestational weeks (GW), acini, islets of Langerhans, ducts

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1509 The Value of Dynamic Magnetic Resonance Defecography in Assessing the Severity of Defecation Disorders

Authors: Ge Sun, Monika Trzpis, Robbert J. de Haas, Paul M. A. Broens

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Introduction: Dynamic magnetic resonance defecography is frequently used to assess defecation disorders. We aimed to investigate the usefulness of dynamic magnetic resonance defecography for assessing the severity of defecation disorder. Methods: We included patients retrospectively from our tertiary referral hospital who had undergone dynamic magnetic resonance defecography, anorectal manometry, and anal electrical sensitivity tests to assess defecation disorders between 2014 and 2020. The primary outcome was the association between the dynamic magnetic resonance defecography variables and the severity of defecation disorders. We assessed the severity of fecal incontinence and constipation with the Wexner incontinence and Agachan constipation scores. Results: Out of the 32 patients included, 24 completed the defecation questionnaire. During defecation, the M line length at magnetic resonance correlated with the Agachan score (r = 0.45, p = 0.03) and was associated with anal sphincter pressure (r=0.39, p=0.03) just before defecation. During rest and squeezing, the H line length at imaging correlated with the Wexner incontinence score (r=0.49, p=0.01 and r=0.69, p< 0.001, respectively). H line length also correlated positively with the anal electrical sensation threshold during squeezing (r=0.50, p=0.004) and during rest (r= 0.42, p=0.02). Conclusions: The M and H line lengths at dynamic magnetic resonance defecography can be used to assess the severity of constipation and fecal incontinence respectively and reflect anatomic changes of the pelvic floor. However, as these anatomic changes are generally late-stage and irreversible, anal manometry seems a better diagnostic approach to assess early and potentially reversible changes in patients with defecation disorders.

Keywords: defecation disorders, dynamic magnetic resonance defecography, anorectal manometry, anal electrical sensitivity tests, H line, M line

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1508 Reconstruction of Alveolar Bone Defects Using Bone Morphogenetic Protein 2 Mediated Rabbit Dental Pulp Stem Cells Seeded on Nano-Hydroxyapatite/Collagen/Poly(L-Lactide)

Authors: Ling-Ling E., Hong-Chen Liu, Dong-Sheng Wang, Fang Su, Xia Wu, Zhan-Ping Shi, Yan Lv, Jia-Zhu Wang

Abstract:

Objective: The objective of the present study is to evaluate the capacity of a tissue-engineered bone complex of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein 2 (rhBMP-2) mediated dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs) and nano-hydroxyapatite/collagen/poly(L-lactide)(nHAC/PLA) to reconstruct critical-size alveolar bone defects in New Zealand rabbit. Methods: Autologous DPSCs were isolated from rabbit dental pulp tissue and expanded ex vivo to enrich DPSCs numbers, and then their attachment and differentiation capability were evaluated when cultured on the culture plate or nHAC/PLA. The alveolar bone defects were treated with nHAC/PLA, nHAC/PLA+rhBMP-2, nHAC/PLA+DPSCs, nHAC/PLA+DPSCs+rhBMP-2, and autogenous bone (AB) obtained from iliac bone or were left untreated as a control. X-ray and a polychrome sequential fluorescent labeling were performed post-operatively and the animals were sacrificed 12 weeks after operation for histological observation and histomorphometric analysis. Results: Our results showed that DPSCs expressed STRO-1 and vementin, and favoured osteogenesis and adipogenesis in conditioned media. DPSCs attached and spread well, and retained their osteogenic phenotypes on nHAC/PLA. The rhBMP-2 could significantly increase protein content, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity/protein, osteocalcin (OCN) content, and mineral formation of DPSCs cultured on nHAC/PLA. The X-ray graph, the fluorescent, histological observation and histomorphometric analysis showed that the nHAC/PLA+DPSCs+rhBMP-2 tissue-engineered bone complex had an earlier mineralization and more bone formation inside the scaffold than nHAC/PLA, nHAC/PLA+rhBMP-2 and nHAC/PLA+DPSCs, or even autologous bone. Implanted DPSCs contribution to new bone were detected through transfected eGFP genes. Conclutions: Our findings indicated that stem cells existed in adult rabbit dental pulp tissue. The rhBMP-2 promoted osteogenic capability of DPSCs as a potential cell source for periodontal bone regeneration. The nHAC/PLA could serve as a good scaffold for autologous DPSCs seeding, proliferation and differentiation. The tissue-engineered bone complex with nHAC/PLA, rhBMP-2, and autologous DPSCs might be a better alternative to autologous bone for the clinical reconstruction of periodontal bone defects.

Keywords: nano-hydroxyapatite/collagen/poly (L-lactide), dental pulp stem cell, recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein, bone tissue engineering, alveolar bone

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1507 Evaluation of Limestone as Self-Curing Aggregate for Concretes in the Southeast of Yucatan Peninsula

Authors: D. G. Rejon-Parra, B. Escobar-Morales, Romeli Barbosa, J. C. Cruz

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In the southeast of Yucatan Peninsula, sedimentary limestone has different degrees of compaction. Due to its recent geological formation (Quaternary) and weathering effects causing an affordable aggregate for local manufacturers of concrete. It is characterized as lightweight aggregates (average density of 2,50), susceptible to abrasion and varying porosities (water content exceeding 7,50 % of its mass, in saturated condition). In this study, local aggregates with two moisture conditions (saturated and dry), have been examined in order to compare them for optimizing the performance of concrete. It is possible that these aggregates favour a phenomenon of mass transport (self-curing by porous aggregate); influencing the water reactions to form crystalline and gel hydration products. Based on the ACI methodology, a concrete mixture of 250 kg/cm2 was designed, with portland blended cement 30R. The bond between the mortar and the coarse aggregate was characterized as physicochemical based on trials which were carefully observed during time span of 28 days. The BET technique was used to analyse the micro porosity and surface areas of contact of the different crystalline phases of the limestone. Its chemical composition and crystal structures were verified with scanning electron microscopy SEM-EDS. On the third day, the samples with saturated aggregate reached 237 kg/cm2 of resistence, nearly the design strength; while samples with dry aggregate, exceeded the design strength, with a capacity of 308 kg/cm2. Aggregates in dry conditions demand a high quantity of water in the initial mixture, causing high resistance at the early stages. In saturated conditions, the development of resistance is progressive but constant.

Keywords: concrete, internal curing, limestone aggregate, porosity

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1506 Nalanda ‘School of Joy’: Teaching Learning Strategies and Support System, for Implementing Child-Friendly Education in Bangladesh

Authors: Sufia Ferdousi

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Child-friendly education (CFE) is very important for the children, especially the early year’s students, because it fosters the holistic development of a child. Teacher plays a key role in creating child-friendly education. This study intends to learn about child-friendly education in Bangladesh. The purpose of the study is to explore how CFE is being practiced in Bangladesh. The study attempted to fulfill the purpose through case study investigation. One school, named Nalanda, was selected for the study as it claims to run the school through CFE approach. The objective of the study was to identify, how this school is different from the other schools in Bangladesh, to explore overall teaching learning system like, curriculum, teaching strategies, assessments and to investigate the support system for Child Friendly Education provided to the teachers through training or mentoring. The nature of the case study was qualitative method to get maximum information from the students, parents, teachers and school authorities. The findings were based on 3 classroom observations, interviews with 1 teacher, 1 head teacher and 1 trainer, FGD with 10 students and 6 parents, were used to collect the data. It has been found that Nalanda is different than the other schools in Bangladesh in terms of, parents’ motivation about school curriculum, and sufficiency of teachers’ knowledge on joyful learning/child-friendly learning. The students took part in the extracurricular activities alongside the national curriculum. Teachers showed particular strength in the teaching learning strategies, using materials and assessment. And Nalanda gives strong support for teacher’s training. In conclusion, The Nalanda School in Dhaka was found appropriate for the requirements of Child-friendly education.

Keywords: child friendly education, overall teaching learning system, the requirements of child-friendly education, the alternative education approach

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1505 Integrated Design in Additive Manufacturing Based on Design for Manufacturing

Authors: E. Asadollahi-Yazdi, J. Gardan, P. Lafon

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Nowadays, manufactures are encountered with production of different version of products due to quality, cost and time constraints. On the other hand, Additive Manufacturing (AM) as a production method based on CAD model disrupts the design and manufacturing cycle with new parameters. To consider these issues, the researchers utilized Design For Manufacturing (DFM) approach for AM but until now there is no integrated approach for design and manufacturing of product through the AM. So, this paper aims to provide a general methodology for managing the different production issues, as well as, support the interoperability with AM process and different Product Life Cycle Management tools. The problem is that the models of System Engineering which is used for managing complex systems cannot support the product evolution and its impact on the product life cycle. Therefore, it seems necessary to provide a general methodology for managing the product’s diversities which is created by using AM. This methodology must consider manufacture and assembly during product design as early as possible in the design stage. The latest approach of DFM, as a methodology to analyze the system comprehensively, integrates manufacturing constraints in the numerical model in upstream. So, DFM for AM is used to import the characteristics of AM into the design and manufacturing process of a hybrid product to manage the criteria coming from AM. Also, the research presents an integrated design method in order to take into account the knowledge of layers manufacturing technologies. For this purpose, the interface model based on the skin and skeleton concepts is provided, the usage and manufacturing skins are used to show the functional surface of the product. Also, the material flow and link between the skins are demonstrated by usage and manufacturing skeletons. Therefore, this integrated approach is a helpful methodology for designer and manufacturer in different decisions like material and process selection as well as, evaluation of product manufacturability.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, 3D printing, design for manufacturing, integrated design, interoperability

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1504 Designing an MTB-MLE for Linguistically Heterogenous Contexts: A Practitioner’s Perspective

Authors: Ajay Pinjani, Minha Khan, Ayesha Mehkeri, Anum Iftikhar

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There is much research available on the benefits of adopting mother tongue-based multilingual education (MTB MLE) in primary school classrooms, but there is limited guidance available on how to design such programs for low-resource and linguistically diverse contexts. This paper is an effort to bridge the gap between theory and practice by offering a practitioner’s perspective on designing an MTB MLE program for linguistically heterogeneous contexts. The research compounds findings from current academic literature on MTB MLE, the study of global MTB MLE programs, interviews with practitioners, policy-makers, and academics worldwide, and a socio-linguistic survey carried out in parts of Tharparkar, Pakistan, the area selected for envisioned pilot implementation. These findings enabled the creation of ‘guiding principles’ which provide structure for the development of a contextualized and holistic MTB-MLE program. The guiding principles direct the creation of teaching and learning materials, creating effective teaching and learning environment, community engagement, and program evaluation. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the development of a context-specific language ladder framework which outlines the language journey of a child’s education, beginning with the mother tongue/ most familiar language in the early years and then gradually transitioning into other languages. Both the guiding principles and language ladder can be adapted to any multilingual context. Thus, this research provides MTB MLE practitioners with assistance in developing an MTB MLE model, which is best suited for their context.

Keywords: mother tongue based multilingual education, education design, language ladder, language issues, heterogeneous contexts

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1503 Predicting the Human Impact of Natural Onset Disasters Using Pattern Recognition Techniques and Rule Based Clustering

Authors: Sara Hasani

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This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

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1502 Challenges of Management of Acute Pancreatitis in Low Resource Setting

Authors: Md. Shakhawat Hossain, Jimma Hossain, Md. Naushad Ali

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Acute pancreatitis is a dangerous medical emergency in the practice of gastroenterology. Management of acute pancreatitis needs multidisciplinary approach with support starts from emergency to ICU. So, there is a chance of mismanagement in every steps, especially in low resource settings. Other factors such as patient’s financial condition, education, social custom, transport facility, referral system from periphery may also challenge the current guidelines for management. The present study is intended to determine the clinico-pathological profile, severity assessment and challenges of management of acute pancreatitis in a government laid tertiary care hospital to image the real scenario of management in a low resource place. A total 100 patients of acute pancreatitis were studied in this prospective study, held in the Department of Gastroenterology, Rangpur medical college hospital, Bangladesh from July 2017 to July 2018 within one year. Regarding severity, 85 % of the patients were mild, whereas 13 were moderately severe, and 2 had severe acute pancreatitis according to the revised Atlanta criteria. The most common etiologies of acute pancreatitis in our study were gall stone (15%) and biliary sludge (15%), whereas 54% were idiopathic. The most common challenges we faced were delay in hospital admission (59%) and delay in hospital diagnosis (20%). Others are non-adherence of patient party, and lack of investigation facility, physician’s poor knowledge about current guidelines. We were able to give early aggressive fluid to only 18% of patients as per current guideline. Conclusion: Management of acute pancreatitis as per guideline is challenging when optimum facility is lacking. So, modified guidelines for assessment and management of acute pancreatitis should be prepared for low resource setting.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis, challenges of management, severity, prognosis

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1501 Impact of Adolescent Smoking on the Behaviour, Academic and Health Aspects in Qatar

Authors: Abdelsalam Gomaa, Mahjabeen Ramzan, Tooba Ali Akbar, Huma Nadeem

Abstract:

The use of tobacco and the health risks linked to it are well known in this day and age due to the presence of easily available information through the internet. The media is a powerful platform that is used by many anti-smoking awareness campaigns to reach their target audience; yet, it has been found that adolescents are taking up smoking every passing day. Half of this smoking population of youngsters resides in Asia alone, which includes Qatar, the focus country of this study. As smoking happens to be one of the largest avoidable causes of serious diseases like cancers and heart problems, children are taking up smoking at an alarming rate everywhere including Qatar. Importance of the health of the citizens of Qatar is one of the pillars of the Qatar vision 2030, which is to ensure a healthy population, both physically and mentally. Since the youth makes up a significant percentage of the population and in order to achieve the health objectives of the Qatar vision 2030, it is essential to ensure the health and well-being of this part of the population of the country as they are the future of Qatar. Children, especially boys who tend to be more aggressive by nature, are highly likely to develop behavioral and health issues due to smoking at an early age. Research conducted around the world has also emphasized on this association between the smokers developing a bad behaviour as well as poor social communication skills. However, due to lack of research into this association, very little is known about the extent to which smoking impacts the children’s academics, health and behaviour. Moreover, a study of this nature has not yet been conducted in Qatar previously as most of the studies focus on adult smokers and ways to minimize the number of smoking habits in universities and workplaces. This study solely focuses on identifying a relationship between smoking and its impacts on the adolescents by conducting a research on different schools across Qatar.

Keywords: adolescents, modelling techniques, Qatar, smoking

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1500 CAP-Glycine Protein Governs Growth, Differentiation, and the Pathogenicity of Global Meningoencephalitis Fungi

Authors: Kyung-Tae Lee, Li Li Wang, Kwang-Woo Jung, Yong-Sun Bahn

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Microtubules are involved in mechanical support, cytoplasmic organization as well as in a number of cellular processes by interacting with diverse microtubule-associated proteins (MAPs), such as plus-end tracking proteins, motor proteins, and tubulin-folding cofactors. A common feature of these proteins is the presence of a cytoskeleton-associated protein-glycine-rich (CAP-Gly) domain, which is evolutionarily conserved and generally considered to bind to α-tubulin to regulate functions of microtubules. However, there has been a dearth of research on CAP-Gly proteins in fungal pathogens, including Cryptococcus neoformans, which causes fatal meningoencephalitis globally. In this study, we identified five CAP-Gly proteins encoding genes in C. neoformans. Among these, Cgp1, encoded by CNAG_06352, has a unique domain structure that has not been reported before in other eukaryotes. Supporting the role of Cpg1 in microtubule-related functions, we demonstrate that deletion or overexpression of CGP1 alters cellular susceptibility to thiabendazole, a microtubule destabilizer, and Cgp1 is co-localized with cytoplasmic microtubules. Related to the cellular functions of microtubules, Cgp1 also governs maintenance of membrane stability and genotoxic stress responses. Furthermore, we demonstrate that Cgp1 uniquely regulates sexual differentiation of C. neoformans with distinct roles in the early and late stage of mating. Our domain analysis reveals that the CAP-Gly domain plays major roles in all the functions of Cgp1. Finally, the cgp1Δ mutant is attenuated in virulence. In conclusion, this novel CAP-Gly protein, Cgp1, has pleotropic roles in regulating growth, stress responses, differentiation and pathogenicity of C. neoformans.

Keywords: human fungal pathogen, CAP-Glycine protein, microtubule, meningoencephalitis

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1499 The Sensitivity of Electrical Geophysical Methods for Mapping Salt Stores within the Soil Profile

Authors: Fathi Ali Swaid

Abstract:

Soil salinization is one of the most hazardous phenomenons accelerating the land degradation processes. It either occurs naturally or is human-induced. High levels of soil salinity negatively affect crop growth and productivity leading land degradation ultimately. Thus, it is important to monitor and map soil salinity at an early stage to enact effective soil reclamation program that helps lessen or prevent future increase in soil salinity. Geophysical method has outperformed the traditional method for assessing soil salinity offering more informative and professional rapid assessment techniques for monitoring and mapping soil salinity. Soil sampling, EM38 and 2D conductivity imaging have been evaluated for their ability to delineate and map the level of salinity variations at Second Ponds Creek. The three methods have shown that the subsoil in the study area is saline. Salt variations were successfully observed under either method. However, EM38 reading and 2D inversion data show a clear spatial structure comparing to EC1:5 of soil samples in spite of that all soil samples, EM38 and 2D imaging were collected from the same location. Because EM38 readings and 2D imaging data are a weighted average of electrical soil conductance, it is more representative of soil properties than the soil samples method. The mapping of subsurface soil at the study area has been successful and the resistivity imaging has proven to be an advantage. The soil salinity analysis (EC1:5) correspond well to the true resistivity bringing together a good result of soil salinity. Soil salinity clearly indicated by previous investigation EM38 have been confirmed by the interpretation of the true resistivity at study area.

Keywords: 2D conductivity imaging, EM38 readings, soil salinization, true resistivity, urban salinity

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1498 Don't Just Guess and Slip: Estimating Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Parameters When Observations Are Scant

Authors: Michael Smalenberger

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Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate and even exceed some benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. A common facet of many ITS is their use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to estimate parameters necessary for the implementation of the artificial intelligence component, and for the probability of mastery of a knowledge component relevant to the ITS. While various techniques exist to estimate these parameters and probability of mastery, none directly and reliably ask the user to self-assess these. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course for which detailed transaction-level observations were recorded, and users were also routinely asked direct questions that would lead to such a self-assessment. Comparisons were made between these self-assessed values and those obtained using commonly used estimation techniques. Our findings show that such self-assessments are particularly relevant at the early stages of ITS usage while transaction level data are scant. Once a user’s transaction level data become available after sufficient ITS usage, these can replace the self-assessments in order to eliminate the identifiability problem in BKT. We discuss how these findings are relevant to the number of exercises necessary to lead to mastery of a knowledge component, the associated implications on learning curves, and its relevance to instruction time.

Keywords: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Intelligent Tutoring System, in vivo study, parameter estimation

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1497 New Hardy Type Inequalities of Two-Dimensional on Time Scales via Steklov Operator

Authors: Wedad Albalawi

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The mathematical inequalities have been the core of mathematical study and used in almost all branches of mathematics as well in various areas of science and engineering. The inequalities by Hardy, Littlewood and Polya were the first significant composition of several science. This work presents fundamental ideas, results and techniques, and it has had much influence on research in various branches of analysis. Since 1934, various inequalities have been produced and studied in the literature. Furthermore, some inequalities have been formulated by some operators; in 1989, weighted Hardy inequalities have been obtained for integration operators. Then, they obtained weighted estimates for Steklov operators that were used in the solution of the Cauchy problem for the wave equation. They were improved upon in 2011 to include the boundedness of integral operators from the weighted Sobolev space to the weighted Lebesgue space. Some inequalities have been demonstrated and improved using the Hardy–Steklov operator. Recently, a lot of integral inequalities have been improved by differential operators. Hardy inequality has been one of the tools that is used to consider integrity solutions of differential equations. Then, dynamic inequalities of Hardy and Coposon have been extended and improved by various integral operators. These inequalities would be interesting to apply in different fields of mathematics (functional spaces, partial differential equations, mathematical modeling). Some inequalities have been appeared involving Copson and Hardy inequalities on time scales to obtain new special version of them. A time scale is an arbitrary nonempty closed subset of the real numbers. Then, the dynamic inequalities on time scales have received a lot of attention in the literature and has become a major field in pure and applied mathematics. There are many applications of dynamic equations on time scales to quantum mechanics, electrical engineering, neural networks, heat transfer, combinatorics, and population dynamics. This study focuses on Hardy and Coposon inequalities, using Steklov operator on time scale in double integrals to obtain special cases of time-scale inequalities of Hardy and Copson on high dimensions. The advantage of this study is that it uses the one-dimensional classical Hardy inequality to obtain higher dimensional on time scale versions that will be applied in the solution of the Cauchy problem for the wave equation. In addition, the obtained inequalities have various applications involving discontinuous domains such as bug populations, phytoremediation of metals, wound healing, maximization problems. The proof can be done by introducing restriction on the operator in several cases. The concepts in time scale version such as time scales calculus will be used that allows to unify and extend many problems from the theories of differential and of difference equations. In addition, using chain rule, and some properties of multiple integrals on time scales, some theorems of Fubini and the inequality of H¨older.

Keywords: time scales, inequality of hardy, inequality of coposon, steklov operator

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1496 Leading with Skill Development: A Collaborative and Community Based Approach to Ending Open Defecation in Rural India via Computerized Technical Vocational Education and Training

Authors: Srividya Sheshadri, Christopher Coley, Roa. R. Bhavani

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India currently accounts for 60 percent of the open defecation that is practiced globally. While research in the domain of sanitation development makes it apparent that girls and women living in rural India are disproportionately affected, interventions to address this dilemma are lacking. An important but relatively unexplored connection with poor sanitation is that women living in rural India are not only the largest marginalized group without access to adequate sanitation facilities, they also represent a majority of India’s unskilled workers. By training women to build their own toilets, through an approach that has demonstrated success in empowering marginalized communities through technical and vocational education and training (TVET), a collaborative dynamic emerges that can engage entire communities in the movement towards total sanitation. Designed and implemented by Amrita University, this technology-enhanced, community-based approach to skill development, known as Amrita computerized Vocational Education and Training (or Amrita cVET), has begun to show promise in addressing the struggle to end open defecation, and raise sanitation awareness, as well as strengthen personal and community development among women living in rural India. While Amrita cVET project, known as Women Empowerment: Sanitation, is currently in implementation in seven states throughout India, this paper will discuss early stages of the intervention in rural villages within the Indian states of: Karnataka and Goa, where previous sanitation efforts have failed to take hold.

Keywords: community based development, empowerment studies, sanitation in India, computerized vocational training

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1495 The Study on Corpse Floating Time in Shanghai Region of China

Authors: Hang Meng, Wen-Bin Liu, Bi Xiao, Kai-Jun Ma, Jian-Hui Xie, Geng Fei, Tian-Ye Zhang, Lu-Yi Xu, Dong-Chuan Zhang

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The victims in water are often found in the coastal region, along river region or the region with lakes. In China, the examination for the bodies of victims in the water is conducted by forensic doctors working in the public security bureau. Because the enter water time for most of the victims are not clear, and often lack of monitor images and other information, so to find out the corpse enter water time for victims is very difficult. After the corpse of the victim enters the water, it sinks first, then corruption gas produces, which can make the density of the corpse to be less than water, and thus rise again. So the factor that determines the corpse floating time is temperature. On the basis of the temperature data obtained in Shanghai region of China (Shanghai is a north subtropical marine monsoon climate, with an average annual temperature of about 17.1℃. The hottest month is July, the average monthly temperature is 28.6℃, and the coldest month is January, the average monthly temperature is 4.8℃). This study selected about 100 cases with definite corpse enter water time and corpse floating time, analyzed the cases and obtained the empirical law of the corpse floating time. For example, in the Shanghai region, on June 15th and October 15th, the corpse floating time is about 1.5 days. In early December, the bodies who entered the water will go up around January 1st of the following year, and the bodies who enter water in late December will float in March of next year. The results of this study can be used to roughly estimate the water enter time of the victims in Shanghai. Forensic doctors around the world can also draw on the results of this study to infer the time when the corpses of the victims in the water go up.

Keywords: corpse enter water time, corpse floating time, drowning, forensic pathology, victims in the water

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1494 Formal Stress Management Teaching Incorporated into the First Year of a Doctor's Practice: A Career Transition Study of British Foundation Year 1 Doctors

Authors: Edward Ridyard, Vinary Varadarajan

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Background and Aims: The first year as a doctor in any country represents a major career transition in any physician's life. During this period, many physicians concentrate on obtaining clinical skills but may not obtain the important skills necessary to cope with stress. In this study we elucidate stress levels amongst FY1 doctors regarding the transitioning into specialty career choices, working in the NHS and anxiety about future career success. Methods: A prospective single blinded analysis of Foundation Year one (FY1) trainees using a non-mandatory online questionnaire was distributed. No exclusion criteria were applied. The only inclusion criteria was the doctor was in a full-time FY1 post and this was their first job in the UK. A total of n= 22 doctors were included in the study. After data collection, statistical analysis using chi-squared testing was applied. Results: The large majority of FY1 doctors (72.7%) already knew what specialty they wished to pursue (p=0.0001). With regards to their future careers 45.5% of FY1 doctors stated "above average" stress levels. The majority of FY1 doctors (64.3%) stated their stress levels working in the NHS were either "above average" or "high". Finally, 81.8% of respondents know colleagues who have been put off from pursuing specialties due to the stress of competition. Conclusions: A large majority of FY1 doctors already know at this early stage what area they would like to specialise in. With this in mind, a large proportion have above "average" levels of stress with regards to securing this future career path. The most worrying finding is that 64.3% of FY1s stated they had "above average" or "high" stress levels working in the NHS. We therefore recommend formal stress management education to be incorporated into the foundation programme curriculum.

Keywords: stress, anxiety, junior doctor, education

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1493 Getting to Know the Enemy: Utilization of Phone Record Analysis Simulations to Uncover a Target’s Personal Life Attributes

Authors: David S. Byrne

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The purpose of this paper is to understand how phone record analysis can enable identification of subjects in communication with a target of a terrorist plot. This study also sought to understand the advantages of the implementation of simulations to develop the skills of future intelligence analysts to enhance national security. Through the examination of phone reports which in essence consist of the call traffic of incoming and outgoing numbers (and not by listening to calls or reading the content of text messages), patterns can be uncovered that point toward members of a criminal group and activities planned. Through temporal and frequency analysis, conclusions were drawn to offer insights into the identity of participants and the potential scheme being undertaken. The challenge lies in the accurate identification of the users of the phones in contact with the target. Often investigators rely on proprietary databases and open sources to accomplish this task, however it is difficult to ascertain the accuracy of the information found. Thus, this paper poses two research questions: how effective are freely available web sources of information at determining the actual identification of callers? Secondly, does the identity of the callers enable an understanding of the lifestyle and habits of the target? The methodology for this research consisted of the analysis of the call detail records of the author’s personal phone activity spanning the period of a year combined with a hypothetical theory that the owner of said phone was a leader of terrorist cell. The goal was to reveal the identity of his accomplices and understand how his personal attributes can further paint a picture of the target’s intentions. The results of the study were interesting, nearly 80% of the calls were identified with over a 75% accuracy rating via datamining of open sources. The suspected terrorist’s inner circle was recognized including relatives and potential collaborators as well as financial institutions [money laundering], restaurants [meetings], a sporting goods store [purchase of supplies], and airline and hotels [travel itinerary]. The outcome of this research showed the benefits of cellphone analysis without more intrusive and time-consuming methodologies though it may be instrumental for potential surveillance, interviews, and developing probable cause for wiretaps. Furthermore, this research highlights the importance of building upon the skills of future intelligence analysts through phone record analysis via simulations; that hands-on learning in this case study emphasizes the development of the competencies necessary to improve investigations overall.

Keywords: hands-on learning, intelligence analysis, intelligence education, phone record analysis, simulations

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1492 Building an Opinion Dynamics Model from Experimental Data

Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul J. Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics is a sub-field of agent-based modeling that focuses on people’s opinions and their evolutions over time. Despite the rapid increase in the number of publications in this field, it is still not clear how to apply these models to real-world scenarios. Indeed, there is no agreement on how people update their opinion while interacting. Furthermore, it is not clear if different topics will show the same dynamics (e.g., more polarized topics may behave differently). These problems are mostly due to the lack of experimental validation of the models. Some previous studies started bridging this gap in the literature by directly measuring people’s opinions before and after the interaction. However, these experiments force people to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language (and then, eventually, encoding it as numbers). This is not the way people normally interact, and it may strongly alter the measured dynamics. Another limitation of these studies is that they usually average all the topics together, without checking if different topics may show different dynamics. In our work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions in natural language (“agree” or “disagree”). We also measured the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. However, this value was not shown to other participants to keep the interaction based on natural language. We then showed the opinion (and not the certainty) of another participant and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To make the data compatible with opinion dynamics models, we multiplied opinion and certainty to obtain a new parameter (here called “continuous opinion”) ranging from -10 to +10 (using agree=1 and disagree=-1). We firstly checked the 5 topics individually, finding that all of them behaved in a similar way despite having different initial opinions distributions. This suggested that the same model could be applied for different unpolarized topics. We also observed that people tend to maintain similar levels of certainty, even when they changed their opinion. This is a strong violation of what is suggested from common models, where people starting at, for example, +8, will first move towards 0 instead of directly jumping to -8. We also observed social influence, meaning that people exposed with “agree” were more likely to move to higher levels of continuous opinion, while people exposed with “disagree” were more likely to move to lower levels. However, we also observed that the effect of influence was smaller than the effect of random fluctuations. Also, this configuration is different from standard models, where noise, when present, is usually much smaller than the effect of social influence. Starting from this, we built an opinion dynamics model that explains more than 80% of data variance. This model was also able to show the natural conversion of polarization from unpolarized states. This experimental approach offers a new way to build models grounded on experimental data. Furthermore, the model offers new insight into the fundamental terms of opinion dynamics models.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamics rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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