Search results for: volatility transmission

Authors: Dejenie Birile Gemeda, Wilhelm Stork

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The power system is one of the most important systems in modern society. The existing power system is approaching the critical operating limits as views of several power system operators. With the increase of load demand, high capacity and long transmission networks are widely used to meet the requirement. With the integration of renewable energies such as wind and solar, the uncertainty, intermittence bring bigger challenges to the operation of power systems. These dynamic uncertainties in the power system lead to power disturbances. The disturbances in a heavily stressed power system cause distance relays to mal-operation or false alarms during post fault power oscillations. This unintended operation of these relays may propagate and trigger cascaded trappings leading to total power system blackout. This is due to relays inability to take an appropriate tripping decision based on ensuing power swing. According to the N-1 criterion, electric power systems are generally designed to withstand a single failure without causing the violation of any operating limit. As a result, some overloaded components such as overhead transmission lines can still work for several hours under overload conditions. However, when a large power swing happens in the power system, the settings of the distance relay of zone 3 may trip the transmission line with a short time delay, and they will be acting so quickly that the system operator has no time to respond and stop the cascading. Misfiring of relays in absence of fault due to power swing may have a significant loss in economic performance, thus a loss in revenue for power companies. This research paper proposes a method to distinguish stable power swing from unstable using dynamic line rating (DLR) in response to power swing or disturbances. As opposed to static line rating (SLR), dynamic line rating support effective mitigation actions against propagating cascading outages in a power grid. Effective utilization of existing transmission lines capacity using machine learning DLR predictions will improve the operating point of distance relay protection, thus reducing unintended power outages due to power swing.

Keywords: blackout, cascading outages, dynamic line rating, power swing, overhead transmission lines

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Biao Li

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With the deepening of international exchanges and investment, the international comparison of power grid firms has become the focus of regulatory authorities. Ignoring the differences in the economic environment, resource endowment, technology, and other aspects of different countries or regions may lead to efficiency bias. Based on the Meta-frontier model, this paper divides China and Japan into two groups by using the data of China and Japan from 2006 to 2020. While preserving the differences between the two countries, it analyzes and compares the efficiency of the transmission and distribution industries of the two countries. Combined with the four-component stochastic frontier model, the efficiency is divided into transient and persistent efficiency. We found that there are obvious differences between the transmission and distribution sectors in China and Japan. On the one hand, the inefficiency of the two countries is mostly caused by long-term and structural problems. The key to improve the efficiency of the two countries is to focus more on solving long-term and structural problems. On the other hand, the long-term and structural problems that cause the inefficiency of the two countries are not the same. Quality factors have different effects on the efficiency of the two countries, and this different effect is captured by the common frontier model but is offset in the overall model. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: transmission and distribution industries, transient efficiency, persistent efficiency, meta-frontier, international comparison

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Authors: Damien Kunjal, Faeezah Peerbhai

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Despite the increasing popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ETF investment choices may not always be rational. Excess trading volume, misevaluations of securities, and excess return volatility present in financial markets can be attributed to the influence of the overconfidence bias. Whilst previous research has explored the overconfidence bias in stock markets; this study focuses on trading in ETF markets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the presence of investor overconfidence in the South African ETF market. Using vector autoregressive models, the lead-lag relationship between market turnover and the market return is examined for the market of South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and for the market of South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks over the period November 2000 till August 2019. Consistent with the overconfidence hypothesis, a positive relationship between current market turnover and lagged market return is found for both markets, even after controlling for market volatility and cross-sectional dispersion. This relationship holds for both market and individual ETF turnover suggesting that investors are overconfident when trading in South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks since trading activity depends on past market returns. Additionally, using the global recession as a structural break, this study finds that investor overconfidence is more pronounced after the global recession suggesting that investors perceive ETFs as risk-reducing assets due to their diversification benefits. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the overconfidence bias has a significant influence on ETF investment choices, therefore, suggesting that the South African ETF market is inefficient since investors’ decisions are based on their biases. As a result, the effect of investor overconfidence can account for the difference between the fair value of ETFs and its current market price. This finding has implications for policymakers whose responsibility is to promote the efficiency of the South African ETF market as well as ETF investors and traders who trade in the South African ETF market.

Keywords: exchange-traded fund, market return, market turnover, overconfidence, trading activity

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Authors: K. Khadidja

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Solitons are stable solution of nonlinear Schrodinger equation. Their stability is due to the exact combination between nonlinearity and dispersion which causes pulse broadening. Higher order solitons are born when nonlinear length is N multiple of dispersive length. Soliton order is determined by the number N itself. In this paper, evolution of higher order solitons is illustrated by simulation using Matlab. Results show that higher order solitons change their shape periodically, the reason why they are bad for transmission comparing to fundamental solitons which are constant. Partial analysis of a soliton of higher order explains that the periodic shape is due to the interplay between nonlinearity and dispersion which are not equal during a period. This class of solitons has many applications such as generation of supercontinuum and the impulse compression on the Femtosecond scale. As a conclusion, the periodicity which is harmful to transmission can be beneficial in other applications.

Keywords: dispersion, nonlinearity, optical fiber, soliton

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Authors: S. K. Gupta, Richa Bansal

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In a deregulated power system structure, power producers, and customers share a common transmission network for wheeling power from the point of generation to the point of consumption. All parties in this open access environment may try to purchase the energy from the cheaper source for greater profit margins, which may lead to overloading and congestion of certain corridors of the transmission network. This may result in violation of line flow, voltage and stability limits and thereby undermine the system security. Utilities therefore need to determine adequately their Available Transfer Capability (ATC) to ensure that system reliability is maintained while serving a wide range of bilateral and multilateral transactions. This paper presents power transfer distribution factor based on AC load flow for the determination and enhancement of ATC. The study has been carried out for IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System.

Keywords: available transfer capability, FACTS devices, power transfer distribution factors, electric

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Authors: Elisa Menicucci, Guido Paolucci

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Purpose: The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing profitability in the Italian hospitality industry during the period 2008-2016. Design/methodology/approach: This study examines the profitability and its determinants using a sample of 2366 Italian hotel firms. First, we use a multidimensional measure of profitability including attributes as return on equity, return on assets and occupancy rate. Second, we examine variables that are potentially related with performance and we sort these into five categories: market variables, business model, ownership structure, management education and control variables. Findings: The results show that financial crisis, business model and ownership structure influence profitability of hotel firms. Specific factors such as the internationalization, location, firm’s declaring accommodation as their primary activity and chain affiliation are associated positively with profitability. We also find that larger hotel firms have higher performance rankings, while hotels with higher operating cash flow volatility, greater sales volatility and a higher occurrence of losses have lower profitability. Research limitations/implications: Findings suggest the importance of considering firm specific factors to evaluate the profitability of a hotel firm. Results also provide evidence for academics to critically evaluate factors that would ensure profitability of hotels in developed countries such as Italy. Practical implications: This investigation offers valuable information and strategic implications for government, tourism policymakers, tourist hotel owners, hoteliers and tourism managers in their decision-making. Originality/value: This paper provides interesting insights into the characteristics and practices of profitable hotels in Italy. Few econometric studies empirically explored the determinants of performance in the European hospitality field so far. Therefore, this paper tries to close an important gap in the existing literature improving the understanding of profitability in the Italian hospitality industry.

Keywords: hotel firms, profitability, determinants, Italian hospitality industry

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Authors: Si-Gwan Kim

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In Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), there may not exist an end-to-end path between source and destination at the time of message transmission. Employing ‘Store Carry and Forward’ delivery mechanism for message transmission in such networks usually incurs long message delays. In this paper, we present the modified Binary Spray and Wait (BSW) routing protocol that enhances the performance of the original one. Our proposed algorithm adjusts the number of forward messages depending on the number of neighbor nodes. By using beacon messages periodically, the number of neighbor nodes can be managed. The simulation using ONE simulator results shows that our modified version gives higher delivery ratio and less latency as compared to BSW.

Keywords: delay tolerant networks, store carry and forward, one simulator, binary spray and wait

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Authors: Endrik Mifta Shaiful, Firman Riyudha

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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the world's deadliest diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) that infects white blood cells and cause a decline in the immune system. AIDS quickly became a world epidemic disease that affects almost all countries. Therefore, mathematical modeling approach to the spread of HIV and AIDS is needed to anticipate the spread of HIV and AIDS which are widespread. The purpose of this study is to determine the parameter estimation on mathematical models of HIV transmission and AIDS using cumulative data of people with HIV and AIDS each year in Indonesia. In this model, there are parameters of r ∈ [0,1) which is the effectiveness of the treatment in patients with HIV. If the value of r is close to 1, the number of people with HIV and AIDS will decline toward zero. The estimation results indicate when the value of r is close to unity, there will be a significant decline in HIV patients, whereas in AIDS patients constantly decreases towards zero.

Keywords: HIV, AIDS, parameter estimation, mathematical models

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Authors: Rajeev Kumar, Angad Singh Kushwaha, Amritanshu Pandey, S. K. Srivastava

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Photonic crystals (PCs) have attracted much attention due to its electromagnetic properties and potential applications. In PCs, there is certain range of wavelength where electromagnetic waves are not allowed to pass are called photonic band gap (PBG). A localized defect mode will appear within PBG, due to change in the interference behavior of light, when we create a defect in the periodic structure. We can also create different types of defect structures by inserting or removing a layer from the periodic layered structure in two and three-dimensional PCs. We can design microcavity, waveguide, and perfect mirror by creating a point defect, line defect, and palanar defect in two and three- dimensional PC structure. One-dimensional and two-dimensional PCs with defects were reported theoretically and experimentally by Smith et al.. in conventional photonic band gap structure. In the present paper, we have presented the defect mode tunability in tilted non-graded photonic crystal (NGPC) and linearly graded photonic crystal (LGPC) using lead sulphide (PbS) and titanium dioxide (TiO2) in the infrared region. A birefringent defect layer is created in NGPC and LGPC using potassium titany phosphate (KTP). With the help of transfer matrix method, the transmission properties of proposed structure is investigated for transverse electric (TE) and transverse magnetic (TM) polarization. NGPC and LGPC without defect layer is also investigated. We have found that a photonic band gap (PBG) arises in the infrared region. An additional defect layer of KTP is created in NGPC and LGPC structure. We have seen that an additional transmission mode appers in PBG region. It is due to the addition of defect layer. We have also seen the effect, linear gradation in thickness, angle of incidence, tilt angle, and thickness of defect layer, on PBG and additional transmission mode. We have observed that the additional transmission mode and PBG can be tuned by changing the above parameters. The proposed structure may be used as channeled filter, optical switches, monochromator, and broadband optical reflector.

Keywords: defect modes, graded photonic crystal, photonic crystal, tilt angle

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Authors: Abdi Ammar, Ouazir Youcef, Laissaoui Abdelmalek

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In this work, an approach based on transmission lines theory is presented. It is exploited for the calculation of overvoltage created by direct impacts of lightning waves on a guard cable of an overhead high-voltage line. First, we show the theoretical developments leading to the propagation equation, its discretization by finite difference time domain method (FDTD), and the resulting linear algebraic equations, followed by the calculation of the linear parameters of the line. The second step consists of solving the transmission lines system of equations by the FDTD method. This enabled us to determine the spatio-temporal evolution of the induced overvoltage.

Keywords: lightning surge, transient overvoltage, eddy current, FDTD, electromagnetic compatibility, ground wire

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Authors: Hyun-Jee Yang, Bit-Na Kwon, Yong-Jun Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In the cooperative transmission scheme, both the cellular system and broadcasting system are composed. Two cellular base stations (CBSs) communicating with a user in the cell edge use cooperative transmission scheme in the conventional scheme. In the case that the distance between two CBSs and the user is distant, the conventional scheme does not guarantee the quality of the communication because the channel condition is bad. Therefore, if the distance between CBSs and a user is distant, the performance of the conventional scheme is decreased. Also, the bad channel condition has bad effects on the performance. The proposed scheme uses two relays to communicate well with CBSs when the channel condition between CBSs and the user is poor. Using the relay in the high attenuation environment can obtain both advantages of the high bit error rate (BER) and throughput performance.

Keywords: cooperative communications, diversity gain, OFDM, interworking system

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Authors: Petr Šimek

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This work deals with the problem of synchronization of bus frames during transmission using USB (Universal Serial Bus). The principles for synchronization between USB and the non-deterministic CAN (Controller Area Network) bus will be described here. Furthermore, the work deals with ensuring the time sequence of communication frames when receiving from multiple communication bus channels. The structure of a general object for storing frames from different types of communication buses, such as CAN and LIN (Local Interconnect Network), will be described here. Finally, an evaluation of the communication throughput of bus frames for USB High speed will be performed. The creation of this architecture was based on the analysis of the communication of control units with a large number of communication buses. For the design of the architecture, a test HW with a USB-HS interface was used, which received previously known messages, which were compared with the received result. The result of this investigation is the block architecture of the control program for test HW ensuring correct data transmission via the USB bus.

Keywords: analysis, CAN, interface, LIN, synchronization, USB

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Authors: Ehab AbdulRazzaq Hussein

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Quantum cryptography (QC) is an emerging technology for secure key distribution with single-photon transmissions. In contrast to classical cryptographic schemes, the security of QC schemes is guaranteed by the fundamental laws of nature. Their security stems from the impossibility to distinguish non-orthogonal quantum states with certainty. A potential eavesdropper introduces errors in the transmissions, which can later be discovered by the legitimate participants of the communication. In this paper, the modeling approach is proposed for QC protocol BB84 using polarization coding. The single-photon system is assumed to be used in the designed models. Thus, Eve cannot use beam-splitting strategy to eavesdrop on the quantum channel transmission. The only eavesdropping strategy possible to Eve is the intercept/resend strategy. After quantum transmission of the QC protocol, the quantum bit error rate (QBER) is estimated and compared with a threshold value. If it is above this value the procedure must be stopped and performed later again.

Keywords: security, key distribution, cryptography, quantum protocols, Quantum Cryptography (QC), Quantum Key Distribution (QKD).

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Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Mehdi Mehdizadeh Koupaei, Maryam Mehdizadeh Koupaei, Asghar Mahdlouei Azar

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The increasing prevalence of wireless networks in our daily lives has made them indispensable. The aim of this research is to investigate the management of information transfer in wireless networks and the integration of renewable solar energy resources in a residential building. The focus is on the transmission of electricity and information through wireless networks, as well as the utilization of sensors and wireless fire alarm systems. The research employs a descriptive approach to examine the transmission of electricity and information on a wireless network with electric and optical telephone lines. It also investigates the transmission of signals from sensors and wireless fire alarm systems via radio waves. The methodology includes a detailed analysis of security, comfort conditions, and costs related to the utilization of wireless networks and renewable solar energy resources. The study reveals that it is feasible to transmit electricity on a network cable using two pairs of network cables without the need for separate power cabling. Additionally, the integration of renewable solar energy systems in residential buildings can reduce dependence on traditional energy carriers. The use of sensors and wireless remote information processing can enhance the safety and efficiency of energy usage in buildings and the surrounding spaces.

Keywords: renewable energy, intelligentization, wireless sensors, fire alarm system

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Authors: Djilani Kobibi Youcef Islam, Hadjeri Samir, Djehaf Mohamed Abdeldjalil

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The Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) technology is a new advanced solution that increases the reliability and provides more flexibility, controllability, and stability of a power system. The Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC), as the most versatile FACTS device for regulating power flow, is able to control respectively transmission line real power, reactive power, and node voltage. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the UPFC on the load flow, the power losses, and the voltage stability using NEPLAN software modules, Newton-Raphson load flow is used for the power flow analysis and the modal analysis is used for the study of the voltage stability. The simulation was carried out on the IEEE 14-bus test system.

Keywords: FACTS, load flow, modal analysis, UPFC, voltage stability

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Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

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Authors: Anjela Koblischka-Veneva, Michael R. Koblischka

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In this contribution, the Transmission-Kikuchi Diffraction (TKD, or sometimes called t-EBSD) is applied to bulk, melt-grown YBa₂Cu₃O₇ (YBCO) superconductors prepared by the MTMG (melt-textured melt-grown) technique and the infiltration growth (IG) technique. TEM slices required for the analysis were prepared by means of Focused Ion-Beam (FIB) milling using mechanically polished sample surfaces, which enable a proper selection of the interesting regions for investigations. The required optical transparency was reached by an additional polishing step of the resulting surfaces using FIB-Ga-ion and Ar-ion milling. The improved spatial resolution of TKD enabled the investigation of the tiny YBa₂Cu₃O₅ (Y-211) particles having a diameter of about 50-100 nm embedded within the YBCO matrix and of other added secondary phase particles. With the TKD technique, the microstructural properties of the YBCO matrix are studied in detail. It is observed that the matrix shows the effects of stress/strain, depending on the size and distribution of the embedded particles, which are important for providing additional flux pinning centers in such superconducting bulk samples. Using the Kernel Average Misorientation (KAM) maps, the strain induced in the superconducting matrix around the particles, which increases the flux pinning effectivity, can be clearly revealed. This type of analysis of the EBSD/TKD data is, therefore, also important for other material systems, where nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix.

Keywords: transmission Kikuchi diffraction, EBSD, TKD, embedded particles, superconductors YBa₂Cu₃O₇

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Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

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This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation

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Authors: Si Jack Chong, Chew Theng Yap, Wan Loong James Mok

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Introduction: Regional burn centres face the spectra of introduced multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) from transfer patients resident in MDRO endemic countries. MDRO can cause severe nosocomial infection, which in massive burn patients, will lead to greater morbidity and mortality and strain the institution financially. We aim to highlight 4 key measures that have effectively prevented transmission of imported MDRO. Methods: A case of Candida auris (C. auris) from a massive burn patient transferred from an MDRO endemic country is used to illustrate the measures. C. auris is a globally emerging multi-drug resistant fungal pathogen causing nosocomial transmission. Results: Infection control measures used to mitigate the risk of outbreak from transfer cases are: (1) Multidisciplinary team approach involving Infection Control and Infectious Disease specialists early to ensure appropriate antibiotics use and implementation of barrier measures, (2) aseptic procedures for dressing change with strict isolation and donning of personal protective equipment in the ward, (3) early screening of massive burn patient from MDRO endemic region, (4) hydrogen peroxide vaporization terminal cleaning for operating theatres and rooms. Conclusion: The prevalence of air travel and international transfer to regional burn centres will need effective infection control measures to reduce the risk of transmission from imported massive burn patients. In our centre, we have effectively implemented 4 measures which have reduced the risks of local contamination. We share a recent case report to illustrate successful management of a potential MDRO outbreak resulting from transfer of massive burn patient resident in an MDRO endemic area.

Keywords: burns, burn unit, cross infection, infection control

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Authors: Roel Guinto Jr, John Peter Dacanay, Edison Ramos

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The Philippines now has the fastest-growing HIV epidemic in the entire Asia-Pacific region. According to the January 2023 HIV/AIDS Registry of the Philippines of the Department of Health (DOH), there were 86 newly reported HIV cases involving 19 years old and below. A cure for HIV is not yet readily available but effective preventive measures to prevent its transmission. Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis is a biomedical intervention for HIV infection in the form of a pill. Students play a significant role in identifying solutions to preventing the transmission of HIV Infection, making it critical to assess their Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis on HIV Infection. A study was conducted among 390 regular students from different college departments at National University – Manila. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data and other statistical tools were used to analyze data. The findings reveal that most students had no knowledge or idea about PreExposure Prophylaxis before being interviewed. It also shows that students have a positive attitude toward the practice of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis. The study revealed that there is also a significant relationship between the Knowledge and the Socio-demographic profile of the respondents. Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices on PrEP of students were overall identified, and areas of improvement were also recognized. Sex Education and Sexual Health Awareness should be implemented to enhance students’ knowledge of practicing safe sex to help prevent HIV Transmission.

Keywords: HIV, cure, biomedical intervention, pre-exposure prophylaxis, pill, knowledge, attitude, practice, sex education, sexual health awareness

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Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two problems related to fractal Brownian motion. First problem is simultaneous estimation of two parameters, Hurst exponent and the volatility, that describe this random process. Numerical tests for the simulated fBm provided an efficient method. Second problem is approximation of the increments of the observed time series by a power function by increments from the fractional Brownian motion. Approximation and estimation are shown on the example of real data, daily deposit interest rates.

Keywords: fractional Brownian motion, Gausssian processes, approximation, time series, estimation of properties of the model

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Anjela Koblischka-Veneva, Michael Koblischka

Abstract:

In this contribution, the transmission-Kikuchi diffrac-tion (TKD, or sometimes called t-EBSD) is applied to bulk, melt-grown YBa2Cu3O7 (YBCO) superconductors prepared by the MTMG (melt-textured melt-grown) technique and the infiltration (IG) growth technique. TEM slices required for the analysis were prepared by means of focused ion-beam (FIB) milling using mechanically polished sample surfaces, which enable a proper selection of the in-teresting regions for investigations. The required optical transparency was reached by an additional polishing step of the resulting surfaces using FIB-Ga-ion and Ar-ion milling. The improved spatial resolution of TKD enabled the investigation of the tiny Y2BaCuO5 (Y-211) particles having a diameter of about 50-100 nm embedded within the YBCO matrix and of other added secondary phase particles. With the TKD technique, the microstructural properties of the YBCO matrix are studied in detail. It is observed that the matrix shows effects of stress/strain, depending on the size and distribution of the embedded particles, which are important for providing additional flux pinning centers in such superconducting bulk samples. Using the Kernel average misorientation (KAM) maps, the strain induced in the superconducting matrix around the particles, which increases the flux pinning effectivity, can be clearly revealed. This type of analysis of the EBSD/TKD data is, therefore, also important for other material systems, where nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix.

Keywords: electron backscatter Diffraction, transmission Kikuchi diffraction, SEM, YBCO, microstructure, nanoparticles

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Authors: Vivek Thorat, Suhasini Desai

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The hybrid electric vehicle is widely accepted as a promising short to mid-term technical solution due to noticeably improved efficiency and low emissions at competitive costs. Retro fitment of hybrid components into a conventional vehicle for achieving better performance is the best solution so far. But retro fitment includes major modifications into a conventional vehicle with a high cost. This paper focuses on the development of a P3x hybrid prototype with rear wheel drive parallel hybrid electric Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) with minimum and low-cost modifications. This diesel Hybrid LCV is different from another hybrid with regard to the powertrain. The additional powertrain consists of continuous contact helical gear pair followed by chain and sprocket as a coupler for traction motor. Vehicle powertrain which is designed for the intended high-speed application. This work focuses on targeting of design, development, and packaging of this unique parallel diesel-electric vehicle which is based on multimode hybrid advantages. To demonstrate the practical applicability of this transmission with P3x hybrid configuration, one concept prototype vehicle has been build integrating the transmission. The hybrid system makes it easy to retrofit existing vehicle because the changes required into the vehicle chassis are a minimum. The additional system is designed for mainly five modes of operations which are engine only mode, electric-only mode, hybrid power mode, engine charging battery mode and regenerative braking mode. Its driving performance, fuel economy and emissions are measured and results are analyzed over a given drive cycle. Finally, the output results which are achieved by the first vehicle prototype during experimental testing is carried out on a chassis dynamometer using MIDC driving cycle. The results showed that the prototype hybrid vehicle is about 27% faster than the equivalent conventional vehicle. The fuel economy is increased by 20-25% approximately compared to the conventional powertrain.

Keywords: P3x configuration, LCV, hybrid electric vehicle, ROMAX, transmission

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Authors: Karolina Pietras, Joanna Fryt, Aleksandra Gronostaj, Tomasz Smolen

Abstract:

Young women and men differ from their parents in preferred values. Those differences enable their adaptability to a new socio-cultural context and help with fulfilling developmental tasks specific to young adulthood. At the same time core values, with special importance to family members, are transmitted within families. Intergenerational similarities in values may thus be both an effect of value transmission within a family and a consequence of sharing the same socio-cultural context. These processes are difficult to separate. In our study we assessed similarities and differences in values within four intergenerational family dyads (mothers-daughters, fathers-daughters, mothers-sons, fathers-sons). Sixty Polish young adults (30 women and 30 men aged 19-25) along with their parents (a total of 180 participants) completed the Schwartz’ Portrait Value Questionnaire (PVQ-21). To determine which values may be transmitted within families, we used a correlation analysis and pseudo dyad analysis that allows for the estimation of a baseline likeness between all tested subjects and consequently makes it possible to determine if similarities between actual family members are greater than chance. We also assessed whether different strategies of measuring similarity between family members render different results, and checked whether resemblances in family dyads are influenced by child’s and parent’s gender. Reported similarities were interpreted in light of the evolutionary and the value salience perspective.

Keywords: intergenerational differences in values, gender differences, pseudo dyad analysis, transmission of values

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Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

Abstract:

The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: C. F. Kumru, C. Kocatepe, O. Arikan

Abstract:

In this study, electric field distribution analyses for three pylon models are carried out by a Finite Element Method (FEM) based software. Analyses are performed in both stationary and time domains to observe instantaneous values along with the effective ones. Considering the results of the study, different line geometries is considerably affecting the magnitude and distribution of electric field although the line voltages are the same. Furthermore, it is observed that maximum values of instantaneous electric field obtained in time domain analysis are quite higher than the effective ones in stationary mode. In consequence, electric field distribution analyses should be individually made for each different line model and the limit exposure values or distances to residential buildings should be defined according to the results obtained.

Keywords: electric field, energy transmission line, finite element method, pylon

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Authors: Phuong Nguyen, Trung Tran

Abstract:

Along with the global ongoing energy transition, Vietnam has indicated a strong commitment in the last COP events on the zero-carbon emission target. However, it is a real challenge for the nation to replace fossil-fired power plants by a significant amount of renewable energy sources (RES) while maintaining security of supply. The unpredictability and variability of RES would cause technical issues for supply-demand balancing, network congestions, system balancing, among others. It is crucial to take these into account while planning the future grid infrastructure. This study will address both generation and transmission adequacy and reveal a comprehensive analysis about the impact of ongoing energy transition on the development of Vietnam power system in 2030. This will provide insight for creating an secure, stable, and affordable pathway for the country in upcoming years.

Keywords: generation adequacy, transmission adequacy, security of supply, energy transition

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Yuan Xu, Xun Liang, Meina Zhang

Abstract:

The rise and attenuation of the public opinion broadcast of an emergent accident, in the social network, has a close relationship with the dynamic development of its subevents cluster. In this article, we take Tianjin Port explosion's subevents as an example to research the dynamic propagation discipline of Internet public opinion in a sudden accident, and analyze the overall structure of dynamic propagation to propose four different routes for subevents clusters propagation. We also generate network diagrams for the dynamic public opinion propagation, analyze each propagation type specifically. Based on this, suggestions on the supervision and guidance of Internet public opinion broadcast can be made.

Keywords: network dynamic transmission modes, emergent subevents clusters, Tianjin Port explosion, public opinion supervision

Procedia PDF Downloads 297