Search results for: corporate credit rating prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3961

Search results for: corporate credit rating prediction

3631 Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Assessment Using Progressive Bearing Degradation Data and ANN Model

Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

Abstract:

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 436
3630 Correlates of Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Rating Scale and Psycho-Productive Multiple Choice Test for Assessing Students' Performance in Rice Production in Secondary Schools in Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Authors: Ogbonnaya Elom, Francis N. Azunku, Ogochukwu Onah

Abstract:

This study was carried out to determine the correlates of cost effectiveness analysis of rating scale and psycho-productive multiple choice test for assessing students’ performance in rice production. Four research questions were developed and answered, while one hypothesis was formulated and tested. Survey and correlation designs were adopted. The population of the study was 20,783 made up of 20,511 senior secondary (SSII) students and 272 teachers of agricultural science from 221 public secondary schools. Two schools with one intact class of 30 students each was purposely selected as sample based on certain criteria. Four sets of instruments were used for data collection. One of the instruments-the rating scale, was subjected to face and content validation while the other three were subjected to face validation only. Cronbach alpha technique was utilized to determine the internal consistency of the rating scale items which yielded a coefficient of 0.82 while the Kudder-Richardson (K-R 20) formula was involved in determining the stability of the psycho-productive multiple choice test items which yielded a coefficient of 0.80. Method of data collection involved a step-by-step approach in collecting data. Data collected were analyzed using percentage, weighted mean and sign test to answer the research questions while the hypothesis was tested using Spearman rank-order of correlation and t-test statistic. Findings of the study revealed among others, that psycho-productive multiple choice test is more effective than rating scale when the former is applied on the two groups of students. It was recommended among others, that the external examination bodies should integrate the use of psycho- productive multiple choice test into their examination policy and direct secondary schools to comply with it.

Keywords: correlates, cost-effectiveness, psycho-productive multiple-choice scale, rating scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
3629 Application of Corporate Social Responsibility in Small Manufacturing Enterprises

Authors: Winai Rungrittidetch

Abstract:

This paper investigated the operational system, procedures, outcomes, and obstacles during the application of the Corporate Social Responsibility by the small enterprises and other involved groups in the anchor production business of the core firm, Jatura Charoen Chai Company Limited. The paper also aimed to discover ways to improve the stakeholders who participated in the CSR training and advisory programme. The paper utilized the qualitative methodology which included documentary review and semi- structured interview. The interviews were made with 8 respondents as the representative of different groups of the company’s stakeholder. The findings drew out the lessons learned from the participation of the selected small manufacturing enterprises in the CSR training and advisory programme. Some suggestions were also made, addressing the significance of the Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy.

Keywords: corporate, social, responsibility, enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
3628 Fast Prediction Unit Partition Decision and Accelerating the Algorithm Using Cudafor Intra and Inter Prediction of HEVC

Authors: Qiang Zhang, Chun Yuan

Abstract:

Since the PU (Prediction Unit) decision process is the most time consuming part of the emerging HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) standardin intra and inter frame coding, this paper proposes the fast PU decision algorithm and speed up the algorithm using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). In intra frame coding, the fast PU decision algorithm uses the texture features to skip intra-frame prediction or terminal the intra-frame prediction for smaller PU size. In inter frame coding of HEVC, the fast PU decision algorithm takes use of the similarity of its own two Nx2N size PU's motion vectors and the hierarchical structure of CU (Coding Unit) partition to skip some modes of PU partition, so as to reduce the motion estimation times. The accelerate algorithm using CUDA is based on the fast PU decision algorithm which uses the GPU to make the motion search and the gradient computation could be parallel computed. The proposed algorithm achieves up to 57% time saving compared to the HM 10.0 with little rate-distortion losses (0.043dB drop and 1.82% bitrate increase on average).

Keywords: HEVC, PU decision, inter prediction, intra prediction, CUDA, parallel

Procedia PDF Downloads 399
3627 A Content Analysis of Sustainability Reporting to Frame the Heterogeneity in Corporate Environment Sustainability Practices

Authors: Venkataraman Sankaranarayanan, Sougata Ray

Abstract:

While extant research has examined many aspects of differential corporate environmental outcomes and behavior, a holistic and integrated view of heterogeneity in corporate environment sustainability (CES) practices remains a puzzle to be fully unraveled – its extent and nature, its relationship to macro or micro level influences, or strategic orientations. Such a perspective would be meaningful for the field given notable strides in CES practices and the corporate social responsibility agenda over the last two decades, in the backdrop of altered global socio-political sensitivities and technological advances. To partly address this gap, this exploratory research adopted a content analysis approach to code patterns in the sustainability disclosures of the 160 largest global firms spread over 8 years. The sample of firms spanned seven industries, nine countries and three continents thereby presenting data rich and diverse enough in several dimensions to be representative of global heterogeneity in CES practices. Through a factor analysis of the coded data, four strategic CES orientations were extracted through the analysis, that effectively straddles most of the variation observed in current CES practices – one that seeks to reduce environmental damage on account of the firm’s operations, another that prioritizes minimalism, a third that focuses on broader ecological status quo, and a final one that champions the ‘business of green’, extending the CES agenda beyond the firm’s boundaries. These environment sustainability strategy orientations are further examined to elicit prominent patterns and explore plausible antecedents.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, corporate sustainability, environmental management, heterogeneity, strategic orientation

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
3626 Application of Artificial Neural Network to Prediction of Feature Academic Performance of Students

Authors: J. K. Alhassan, C. S. Actsu

Abstract:

This study is on the prediction of feature performance of undergraduate students with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). With the growing decline in the quality academic performance of undergraduate students, it has become essential to predict the students’ feature academic performance early in their courses of first and second years and to take the necessary precautions using such prediction-based information. The feed forward multilayer neural network model was used to train and develop a network and the test carried out with some of the input variables. A result of 80% accuracy was obtained from the test which was carried out, with an average error of 0.009781.

Keywords: academic performance, artificial neural network, prediction, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 467
3625 Self-Organizing Maps for Credit Card Fraud Detection

Authors: ChunYi Peng, Wei Hsuan CHeng, Shyh Kuang Ueng

Abstract:

This study focuses on the application of self-organizing maps (SOM) technology in analyzing credit card transaction data, aiming to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of fraud detection. Som, as an artificial neural network, is particularly suited for pattern recognition and data classification, making it highly effective for the complex and variable nature of credit card transaction data. By analyzing transaction characteristics with SOM, the research identifies abnormal transaction patterns that could indicate potentially fraudulent activities. Moreover, this study has developed a specialized visualization tool to intuitively present the relationships between SOM analysis outcomes and transaction data, aiding financial institution personnel in quickly identifying and responding to potential fraud, thereby reducing financial losses. Additionally, the research explores the integration of SOM technology with composite intelligent system technologies (including finite state machines, fuzzy logic, and decision trees) to further improve fraud detection accuracy. This multimodal approach provides a comprehensive perspective for identifying and understanding various types of fraud within credit card transactions. In summary, by integrating SOM technology with visualization tools and composite intelligent system technologies, this research offers a more effective method of fraud detection for the financial industry, not only enhancing detection accuracy but also deepening the overall understanding of fraudulent activities.

Keywords: self-organizing map technology, fraud detection, information visualization, data analysis, composite intelligent system technologies, decision support technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 57
3624 Simple Multiple-Attribute Rating Technique for Optimal Decision-Making Model on Selecting Best Spiker of World Grand Prix

Authors: Chen Chih-Cheng, Chen I-Cheng, Lee Yung-Tan, Kuo Yen-Whea, Yu Chin-Hung

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to construct a model for best spike player selection in a top volleyball tournament of the world. Data consisted of the records of 2013 World Grand Prix declared by International Volleyball Federation (FIVB). Simple Multiple-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) was used for optimal decision-making model on the best spike player selection. The research results showed that the best spike player ranking by SMART is different than the ranking by FIVB. The results demonstrated the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Keywords: simple multiple-attribute rating technique, World Grand Prix, best spike player, International Volleyball Federation

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
3623 Self-Organizing Maps for Credit Card Fraud Detection and Visualization

Authors: Peng Chun-Yi, Chen Wei-Hsuan, Ueng Shyh-Kuang

Abstract:

This study focuses on the application of self-organizing maps (SOM) technology in analyzing credit card transaction data, aiming to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of fraud detection. Som, as an artificial neural network, is particularly suited for pattern recognition and data classification, making it highly effective for the complex and variable nature of credit card transaction data. By analyzing transaction characteristics with SOM, the research identifies abnormal transaction patterns that could indicate potentially fraudulent activities. Moreover, this study has developed a specialized visualization tool to intuitively present the relationships between SOM analysis outcomes and transaction data, aiding financial institution personnel in quickly identifying and responding to potential fraud, thereby reducing financial losses. Additionally, the research explores the integration of SOM technology with composite intelligent system technologies (including finite state machines, fuzzy logic, and decision trees) to further improve fraud detection accuracy. This multimodal approach provides a comprehensive perspective for identifying and understanding various types of fraud within credit card transactions. In summary, by integrating SOM technology with visualization tools and composite intelligent system technologies, this research offers a more effective method of fraud detection for the financial industry, not only enhancing detection accuracy but also deepening the overall understanding of fraudulent activities.

Keywords: self-organizing map technology, fraud detection, information visualization, data analysis, composite intelligent system technologies, decision support technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 59
3622 The Effect of Corporate Governance on Financial Stability and Solvency Margin for Insurance Companies in Jordan

Authors: Ghadeer A.Al-Jabaree, Husam Aldeen Al-Khadash, M. Nassar

Abstract:

This study aimed at investigating the effect of well-designed corporate governance system on the financial stability of insurance companies listed in ASE. Further, this study provides a comprehensive model for evaluating and analyzing insurance companies' financial position and prospective for comparing the degree of corporate governance application provisions among Jordanian insurance companies. In order to achieve the goals of the study, a whole population that consist of (27) listed insurance companies was introduced through the variables of (board of director, audit committee, internal and external auditor, board and management ownership and block holder's identities). Statistical methods were used with alternative techniques by (SPSS); where descriptive statistical techniques such as means, standard deviations were used to describe the variables, while (F) test and ANOVA analysis of variance were used to test the hypotheses of the study. The study revealed the existence of significant effect of corporate governance variables except local companies that are not listed in ASE on financial stability within control variables especially debt ratio (leverage),where it's also showed that concentration in motor third party doesn't have significant effect on insurance companies' financial stability during study period. Moreover, the study concludes that Global financial crisis affect the investment side of insurance companies with insignificant effect on the technical side. Finally, some recommendations were presented such as enhancing the laws and regulation that help the appropriate application of corporate governance, and work on activating the transparency in the disclosures of the financial statements and focusing on supporting the technical provisions for the companies, rather than focusing only on profit side.

Keywords: corporate governance, financial stability and solvency margin, insurance companies, Jordan

Procedia PDF Downloads 489
3621 The Sensitivity of Credit Defaults Swaps Premium to Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

Abstract:

Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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3620 Resocializing Corporate Mindfulness and Meditation: A Relational-Sociological Account of Mindfulness Course Curricula in the Workplace

Authors: Katie Temple

Abstract:

This paper investigates how corporate actors forge commensurability between Buddhist-based mindfulness techniques and day-to-day organizational life. In-depth interviews were conducted with mindfulness instructors certified through Google’s Search Inside Yourself Leadership Institute (SIYLI), an organization that designs corporate mindfulness program curricula based on their experiences guiding courses in Fortune 500 companies. Drawing from anti-essentialist sociology and interpretive data analysis, this paper describes instructors’ use of their standardized teacher guidebooks, a regulatory script all SIYLI-certified instructors must adhere to, and instructors’ reinterpretations of teaching protocols at the local level. Instructors mediate standardized rules through their embodied knowledge, perceived receptivity and effect of a given audience, and their political values. Instructors also resist standardizing practices by developing creative, under-the-radar tactics to deviate from the guidebook and assert their own spiritual autonomy. This research contributes to growing debates challenging critical and neoliberal accounts of capitalist abstraction.

Keywords: anti-essentialism, corporate culture, interpretive methods, mindfulness and meditation, relational sociology

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
3619 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 336
3618 An Example of University Research Driving University-Industry Collaboration

Authors: Stephen E. Cross, Donald P. McConnell

Abstract:

In the past decade, market pressures and decreasing U.S. federal budgets for science and technology have led to a fundamental change in expectations for corporate investments in innovation. The trend to significant, sustained corporate research collaboration with major academic centres has called for rethinking the balance between academic and corporate roles in these relationships. The Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a system-focused strategy for transformational research focused on grand challenges in areas of importance both to faculty and to industry collaborators. A model of an innovation ecosystem is used to guide both research and university-industry collaboration. The paper describes the strategy, the model, and the results to date including the benefits both to university research and industry collaboration. Key lessons learned are presented based on this experience.

Keywords: ecosystem, industry collaboration, innovation, research strategy

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3617 Sensitivity of Credit Default Swaps Premium to Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

Abstract:

Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
3616 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network

Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction

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3615 Approaches and Implications of Working on Gender Equality under Corporate Social Responsibility: A Case Study of Two Corporate Social Responsibilities in India

Authors: Shilpa Vasavada

Abstract:

One of the 17 SustainableDevelopmentGoals focuses on gender equality. The paper is based on the learning derived from working with two Corporate Social Responsibility cases in India: one, CSR of an International Corporate and the other, CSR of a multi state national level corporate -on their efforts to integrate gender perspective in their agriculture and livestock based rural livelihood programs. The author tries to dissect how ‘gender equality’ is seen by these two CSRs, where the goals are different. The implications of a CSR’sunderstandingon ‘gender equality’ as a goal; versus CSR’s understanding of working 'with women for enhancing quantity or quality of production’ gets reflected in their orientation to staff, resource allocation, strategic level and in processes followed at the rural grassroots level. The paper comes up with examples of changes made at programmatic front when CSR understands and works with the focus on gender equality as a goal. On the other hand, the paper also explores the differential, at times, the negative impact on women and the programmes;- when the goals differ. The paper concludes with recommendations for CSRs to take up at their resource allocation and strategic level if gender equality is the goal- which has direct implication at their grassroots programmatic work. The author argues that if gender equality has to be implemented actually in spirit by a CSR, it requires change in mindset and thus an openness to changes in strategies and resource allocation pattern of the CSR and not simply adding on women in the way intervention has been going on.

Keywords: gender equality, approaches, differential impact, resource allocation

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3614 Corporate Governance, Performance, and Financial Reporting Quality of Listed Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria

Authors: Jamila Garba Audu, Shehu Usman Hassan

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The widespread failure in the financial information quality has created the need to improve the financial information quality and to strengthen the control of managers by setting up good firms structures. Published accounting information in financial statements is required to provide various users - shareholders, employees, suppliers, creditors, financial analysts, stockbrokers and government agencies – with timely and reliable information useful for making prudent, effective and efficient decisions. The relationship between corporate governance and performance to financial reporting quality is imperative; this is because despite rapid researches in this area the findings obtained from these studies are constantly inconclusive. Data for the study were extracted from the firms’ annual reports and accounts. After running the OLS regression, a robustness test was conducted for the validity of statistical inferences; the data was empirically tested. A multiple regression was employed to test the model as a technique for data analysis. The results from the analysis revealed a negative association between all the regressors and financial reporting quality except the performance of listed manufacturing firms in Nigeria. This indicates that corporate governance plays a significant role in mitigating earnings management and improving financial reporting quality while performance does not. The study recommended among others that the composition of audit committee should be made in accordance with the provision for code of corporate governance which is not more than six (6) members with at least one (1) financial expert.

Keywords: corporate governance, financial reporting quality, manufacturing firms, Nigeria, performance

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3613 Modeling and Shape Prediction for Elastic Kinematic Chains

Authors: Jiun Jeon, Byung-Ju Yi

Abstract:

This paper investigates modeling and shape prediction of elastic kinematic chains such as colonoscopy. 2D and 3D models of elastic kinematic chains are suggested and their behaviors are demonstrated through simulation. To corroborate the effectiveness of those models, experimental work is performed using a magnetic sensor system.

Keywords: elastic kinematic chain, shape prediction, colonoscopy, modeling

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3612 The Role of Microfinance in Economic Development

Authors: Babak Salekmahdy

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Microfinance is often seen as a means of repairing credit markets and unleashing the potential contribution of impoverished people who rely on self-employment. Since the 1990s, the microfinance industry has expanded rapidly, opening the path for additional kinds of social entrepreneurship and social investment. However, current data indicate relatively few average consumer effects, opposing pushback against microfinance. This research reconsiders microfinance statements, stressing the variety of data on impacts and the essential (but limited) role of reimbursements. The report finishes by explaining a shift in thinking: from microfinance as a strictly defined enterprise finance to microfinance as a more widely defined home finance. Microfinance, under this perspective, provides advantages by providing liquidity for various requirements rather than just by increasing income.

Keywords: microfinance, small business, economic development, credit markets

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3611 Creating Shared Value: A Paradigm Shift from Corporate Social Responsibility to Creating Shared Value

Authors: Bolanle Deborah Motilewa, E.K. Rowland Worlu, Gbenga Mayowa Agboola, Marvellous Aghogho Chidinma Gberevbie

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Businesses operating in the modern business world are faced with varying challenges; amongst which is the need to ensure that they are performing their societal function of being responsible in the society in which they operate. This responsibility to society is generally termed as corporate social responsibility. For many years, the practice of corporate social responsibility (CSR) was solely philanthropic, where organizations gave ‘charity’ or ‘alms’ to society, without any link to the organization’s mission and objectives. However, there has arisen a shift in the application of CSR from an act of philanthropy to a strategy with a business model engaged in by organizations to create a win-win situation of performing their societal obligation, whilst simultaneously performing their economic obligation. In more recent times, the term has moved from CSR to creating shared value, which is simply corporate policies and practices that enhance the competitiveness of a business organization while simultaneously advancing social and economic conditions in the communities in which the company operates. Creating shared value has in more recent light found more meaning in underdeveloped countries, faced with deep societal challenges that businesses can solve whilst creating economic value. This study thus reviews literature on CSR, conceptualizing the shift to creating shared value and finally viewing its potential significance in Africa’s development.

Keywords: africapitalism, corporate social responsibility, development, shared value

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
3610 Prediction on Housing Price Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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3609 The Role of Macroeconomic Condition and Volatility in Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swap Index Spread on Structural Models in U.S. Market during Post-Crisis Period

Authors: Xu Wang

Abstract:

This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

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3608 The Impact of Board Structure to the Roles of Board of Commissioners in Implementing Good Corporate Governance at Indonesian State-Owned Enterprises

Authors: Synthia Atas Sari, Engkos Achmad Kuncoro, Haryadi Sarjono

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of reward system which is determined by government over the work of Board of Commissioners in implementing good corporate governance in Indonesian state-owned enterprises. To do so, this study analyses the adequacy of the remuneration, the job attractiveness, and the board commitment and dedication with the remuneration system. Qualitative method used to examine the significant features and challenges to the government policy over the remuneration determination for the board of commissioners to their roles. Data are gathered through semi-structure in-depth interview to the 21 participants over 10 Indonesian stated-owned enterprises and written documents. Findings in this study indicate that government policies over the remuneration system is not effective to increase the performance of board of commissioners in implementing good corporate governance in Indonesian state-owned enterprises due to unattractiveness of the remuneration amount, demotivate active members, and conflict interest over members of the remuneration committee.

Keywords: reward system, board of commissioners, state-owned enterprises, good corporate governance

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3607 Comparison of Patient Satisfaction and Observer Rating of Outpatient Care among Public Hospitals in Shanghai

Authors: Tian Yi Du, Guan Rong Fan, Dong Dong Zou, Di Xue

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Background: The patient satisfaction survey is becoming of increasing importance for hospitals or other providers to get more reimbursement and/or more governmental subsidies. However, when the results of patient satisfaction survey are compared among medical institutions, there are some concerns. The primary objectives of this study were to evaluate patient satisfaction in tertiary hospitals of Shanghai and to compare the satisfaction rating on physician services between patients and observers. Methods: Two hundred outpatients were randomly selected for patient satisfaction survey in each of 28 public tertiary hospitals of Shanghai. Four or five volunteers were selected to observe 5 physicians’ practice in each of above hospitals and rated observed physicians’ practice. The outpatients that the volunteers observed their physician practice also filled in the satisfaction questionnaires. The rating scale for outpatient survey and volunteers’ observation was: 1 (very dissatisfied) to 6 (very satisfied). If the rating was equal to or greater than 5, we considered the outpatients and volunteers were satisfied with the services. The validity and reliability of the measure were assessed. Multivariate regressions for each of the 4 dimensions and overall of patient satisfaction were used in analyses. Paired t tests were applied to analyze the rating agreement on physician services between outpatients and volunteers. Results: Overall, 90% of surveyed outpatients were satisfied with outpatient care in the tertiary public hospitals of Shanghai. The lowest three satisfaction rates were seen in the items of ‘Restrooms were sanitary and not crowded’ (81%), ‘It was convenient for the patient to pay medical bills’ (82%), and ‘Medical cost in the hospital was reasonable’ (84%). After adjusting the characteristics of patients, the patient satisfaction in general hospitals was higher than that in specialty hospitals. In addition, after controlling the patient characteristics and number of hospital visits, the hospitals with higher outpatient cost per visit had lower patient satisfaction. Paired t tests showed that the rating on 6 items in the dimension of physician services (total 14 items) was significantly different between outpatients and observers, in which 5 were rated lower by the observers than by the outpatients. Conclusions: The hospital managers and physicians should use patient satisfaction and observers’ evaluation to detect the room for improvement in areas such as social skills cost control, and medical ethics.

Keywords: patient satisfaction, observation, quality, hospital

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3606 Employee Perception of Corporate Social Responsibility and Its Impact on Organizational Performance: Evidence from the UAE

Authors: Sherine Farouk, Fauzia Jabeen

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The purpose of this study is to examine the role played by ethical climate and CSR on organizational performance in public sector organizations. In particular, the research will shed light on the link between formalized ethical procedures and employee responses including corporate social responsibility, and organizational performance among public sector employees. Data was collected from 425 employees working in public sector organizations in Abu Dhabi, the capital of United Arab Emirates. Structural Equation Modeling will be used to test the proposed hypotheses. The paper contributes to the literature by being one of the first to study CSR and ethical climate within a Middle Eastern context, and will offer important implications for theory and practice.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, ethical climate, organizational performance, United Arab Emirates

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3605 Auction Theory In Competitive Takeovers: Ideas For Regulators

Authors: Emanuele Peggi

Abstract:

The regulation of competitive takeover bids is one of the most problematic issues of any legislation on takeovers since it concerns a particular type of market, that of corporate control, whose peculiar characteristic is that companies represent "assets" unique of their kind, for each of which there will be a relevant market characterized by the presence of different subjects interested in acquiring control. Firstly, this work aims to analyze, from a comparative point of view, the regulation of takeover bids in competitive scenarios, characterized by the presence of multiple takeover bids for the same target company, and contribute to the debate on the impact that various solutions adopted in some legal systems examined (Italy, UK, and USA) have had on the efficiency of the market for corporate control. Secondly, the different auction models identified by the economic literature and their possible applications to corporate acquisitions in competitive scenarios will be examined, as well as the consequences that the application of each of them causes on the efficiency of the market for corporate control and the interests of the target shareholders. The scope is to study the possibility of attributing to the management of the target company the power to design the auction in order to better protect the interests of shareholders through the adoption of ad hoc models according to the specific context. and in particular on the ground of their assessment of the buyer's risk profile.

Keywords: takeovers, auction theory, shareholders, target company

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3604 The Impact of Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) on Corporate Financial Performance (CFP): Evidence from New Zealand Companies

Authors: Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman

Abstract:

The impact of corporate environmental social and governance (ESG) on financial performance is often difficult to quantify despite the ESG related theories predict that ESG performance improves financial performance of a company. This research examines the link between corporate ESG performance and the financial performance of the NZX (New Zealand Stock Exchange) listed companies. For this purpose, this research utilizes mixed methods approaches to examine and understand this link. While quantitative results found no robust evidence of such a link, however, the qualitative analysis of content data suggests a strong cooccurrence exists between ESG performance and financial performance. The findings of this research have important implications for policymakers to support higher ESG-performing companies and for management practitioners to develop ESG-related strategies.

Keywords: ESG, financial performance, New Zealand firms, thematic analysis, mixed methods

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3603 Opportunities and Options for Government to Promote Corporate Social Responsibility in the Czech Republic

Authors: Pavel Adámek

Abstract:

The concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the Czech Republic has evolved notably during the last few years and an issue that started as an interest- and motive-based activity for businesses is becoming more commonplace. Governments have a role to play in ensuring that corporations behave according to the rules and norms of society and can legislate, foster, collaborate with businesses and endorse good practice in order to facilitate the development of CSR. The purpose of this paper is to examine the opportunities and options of CSR in government policy and research its relevance to a business sector. An increasing number of companies is engaging in responsible activities, the public awareness of CSR is rising, and customers are giving higher importance to CSR of companies in their choice. By drawing on existing CSR approach in Czech and understanding of CSR are demonstrated. The paper provides an overview, more detailed government approach of CSR.

Keywords: approach, corporate social responsibility, government policy, instruments

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3602 Clinical Prediction Rules for Using Open Kinetic Chain Exercise in Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis

Authors: Mohamed Aly, Aliaa Rehan Youssef, Emad Sawerees, Mounir Guirgis

Abstract:

Relevance: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common degenerative disease seen in all populations. It causes disability and substantial socioeconomic burden. Evidence supports that exercise are the most effective conservative treatment for patients with OA. Therapists experience and clinical judgment play major role in exercise prescription and scientific evidence for this regard is lacking. The development of clinical prediction rules to identify patients who are most likely benefit from exercise may help solving this dilemma. Purpose: This study investigated whether body mass index and functional ability at baseline can predict patients’ response to a selected exercise program. Approach: Fifty-six patients, aged 35 to 65 years, completed an exercise program consisting of open kinetic chain strengthening and passive stretching exercises. The program was given for 3 sessions per week, 45 minutes per session, for 6 weeks Evaluation: At baseline and post treatment, pain severity was assessed using the numerical pain rating scale, whereas functional ability was being assessed by step test (ST), time up and go test (TUG) and 50 feet time walk test (50 FTW). After completing the program, global rate of change (GROC) score of greater than 4 was used to categorize patients as successful and non-successful. Thirty-eight patients (68%) had successful response to the intervention. Logistic regression showed that BMI and 50 FTW test were the only significant predictors. Based on the results, patients with BMI less than 34.71 kg/m2 and 50 FTW test less than 25.64 sec are 68% to 89% more likely to benefit from the exercise program. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider the described strengthening and flexibility exercise program for patents with BMI less than 34.7 Kg/m2 and 50 FTW faster than 25.6 seconds. The validity of these predictors should be investigated for other exercise.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule, knee osteoarthritis, physical therapy exercises, validity

Procedia PDF Downloads 422