Search results for: collision probability

Authors: Ali Ganoun, Wesam Algablawi, Wasim BenAnaif

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Video based traffic surveillance based on License Plate Recognition (LPR) system is an essential part for any intelligent traffic management system. The LPR system utilizes computer vision and pattern recognition technologies to obtain traffic and road information by detecting and recognizing vehicles based on their license plates. Generally, the video based LPR system is a challenging area of research due to the variety of environmental conditions. The LPR systems used in a wide range of commercial applications such as collision warning systems, finding stolen cars, controlling access to car parks and automatic congestion charge systems. This paper presents an automatic LPR system of Libyan license plate. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated with three video sequences.

Keywords: license plate recognition, localization, segmentation, recognition

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: Felipa de Mello-Sampayo

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The aim of this study is to undertake, from patient’s perspective, the timing and probability of using teledermatology, comparing it with a conventional referral system. The dynamic stochastic model’s main value-added consists of the concrete application to patients waiting for dermatology surgical intervention. Patients with low health level uncertainty must use teledermatology treatment as soon as possible, which is precisely when the teledermatology is least valuable. The results of the model were then tested empirically with the teledermatology network covering the area served by the Hospital Garcia da Horta, Portugal, links the primary care centers of 24 health districts with the hospital’s dermatology department via the corporate intranet of the Portuguese healthcare system. Health level volatility can be understood as the hazard of developing skin cancer and the trend of health level as the bias of developing skin lesions. The results of the survival analysis suggest that the theoretical model can explain the use of teledermatology. It depends negatively on the volatility of patients' health, and positively on the trend of health, i.e., the lower the risk of developing skin cancer and the younger the patients, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur. Presurgical teledermatology also depends positively on out-of-pocket expenses and negatively on the opportunity costs of teledermatology, i.e., the lower the benefit missed by using teledermatology, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur.

Keywords: teledermatology, wait time, uncertainty, opportunity cost, survival analysis

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Authors: Shahin A. Abdel-Naby, Asad T. Hassan, Stuart Loch, Michael Fogle, Negil R. Badnell, Michael S. Pindzola

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Accurate and reliable laboratory astrophysical data for electron-ion recombination are needed for plasma modeling. Dielectronic recombination (DR) rate coefficients are calculated for boron-like nitrogen and oxygen ions using state-of-the-art multi-configuration Breit-Pauli atomic structure AUTOSTRUCTURE collisional package within the generalized collisional-radiative framework. The calculations are performed in intermediate coupling scheme associated with n = 0 (2  2) and n = 1 (2  3) core-excitations. Good agreements are found between the theoretically convoluted rate coefficients and the experimental measurements performed at CRYRING heavy-ion storage ring for both ions. Fitting coefficients for the rate coefficients are produced for these ions in the temperature range q2(102-107) K, where q is the ion charge before recombination.

Keywords: Atomic data, atomic processes, electron-ion collision, plasma

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Authors: Francisco Toledo-Castillo, María Josefa Sospedra-Baeza, Sergio Hidalgo-Fuentes

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Motorcycles constitute about 9% of all motorized vehicles in Spain and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 21% of total accidents. Six years of motorcycle accident data were obtained through the national accident database of Spain (Dirección General de Tráfico). Some of the studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, speeding, subject’s driving license and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose, and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Key findings show helmet use, unsafe speed, the trip purpose, weather, distraction, collision type and other variables play significant roles in crash-injury outcomes. Finally, we examine evolution of mortality and severity from 2006 to 2011.

Keywords: motorcycle accidents, risk factors, statistics, Spain

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Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

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This paper aims at developing a multi-objective model for supplier selection and order allocation problem in stochastic environment, where purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. In this regard, dependent chance programming is used which maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. The abovementioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem is then transformed into a stochastic single objective programming problem using minimum deviation method. In the next step, the further problem is solved applying a genetic algorithm, which performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. Finally, the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution is examined via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that whatever stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of the objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is deteriorated.

Keywords: supplier selection, order allocation, dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Sifen Abreham

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Employees are resources in organizations; as such, they need to be trained and developed properly to achieve an organization's goals and expectations. The initial development of the human resource management concept is based on the effective utilization of people to treat them as resources, leading to the realization of business strategies and organizational objectives. The study aimed to assess the effect of training and development practices on employee performance. The researcher used an explanatory research design, which helps to explain, understand, and predict the relationship between variables. To collect the data from the respondents, the study used probability sampling. From the probability, the researcher used stratified random sampling, which can branch off the entire population into homogenous groups. The result was analyzed and presented by using the statistical package for the social science (SPSS) version 26. The major finding of the study was that the training has an impact on employees' job performance to achieve organizational objectives. The district has a policy and procedure for training and development, but it doesn’t apply actively, and it’s not suitable for district-advised reform this policy and procedure and applied actively; the district gives training for the majority of its employees, but most of the time, the training is theoretical the district advised to use practical training method to see positive change, the district gives evaluation after the employees take training and development, but the result is not encouraging the district advised to assess employees skill gap and feel that gap, the district has a budget, but it’s not adequate the district advised to strengthen its financial ground.

Keywords: training, development, employees, performance, policy

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Authors: Serdal Pamuk, Irem Cay

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Our model is based on the theory of reinforced random walks coupled with Michealis-Menten mechanisms which view endothelial cell receptors as the catalysts for transforming both tumor and macrophage derived tumor angiogenesis factor (TAF) into proteolytic enzyme which in turn degrade the basal lamina. The model consists of two main parts. First part has seven differential equations (DE’s) in one space dimension over the capillary, whereas the second part has the same number of DE’s in two space dimensions in the extra cellular matrix (ECM). We connect these two parts via some boundary conditions to move the cells into the ECM in order to initiate capillary formation. But, when does this movement begin? To address this question we estimate the thresholds that activate the transport equations in the capillary. We do this by using steady-state analysis of TAF equation under some assumptions. Once these equations are activated endothelial, pericyte and macrophage cells begin to move into the ECM for the initiation of angiogenesis. We do believe that our results play an important role for the mechanisms of cell migration which are crucial for tumor angiogenesis. Furthermore, we estimate the long time tendency of these three cells, and find that they tend to the transition probability functions as time evolves. We provide our numerical solutions which are in good agreement with our theoretical results.

Keywords: angiogenesis, capillary formation, mathematical analysis, steady-state, transition probability function

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Authors: Eung Ryeol Seo, Hee Tae Lim, Eunsuk Bang, Soon Cheol Kweon, Jeoung-Kyo Jeoung, Ji-Hoon Choic

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The object of this study is to investigate the effect of pulsator on washing performance quantitatively for front-loading washer. The front-loading washer with pulsator shows washing performance improvement of 18% and the particle-based body simulation technique has been applied to figure out the relation between washing performance and mechanical forces exerted on textile during washing process. As a result, the mechanical forces, such as collision force and strain force, acting on the textile have turned out to be about twice numerically. The washing performance improvement due to additional pulsate system has been utilized for customers to save 50% of washing time.

Keywords: front-loading washer, mechanical force, fabric movement, pulsator, time-saving

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Authors: Mahmoud Meckawey

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This research is dealing with one of the most important aspects of maintenance fields, that is Maintenance Strategy. It's the branch which concerns the concepts and the schematic thoughts in how to manage maintenance and how to deal with the defects in the engineering products (buildings, machines, etc.) in general. Through the papers we will act with the followings: i) The Engineering Product & the Technical Systems: When we act with the maintenance process, in a strategic view, we act with an (engineering product) which consists of multi integrated systems. In fact, there is no engineering product with only one system. We will discuss and explain this topic, through which we will derivate a developed definition for the maintenance process. ii) The factors or basis of the functionality efficiency: That is the main factors affect the functional efficiency of the systems and the engineering products, then by this way we can give a technical definition of defects and how they occur. iii) The legality of occurrence of defects (Legal defects and Illegal defects): with which we assume that all the factors of the functionality efficiency been applied, and then we will discuss the results. iv) The Guarantee, the Functional Span Age and the Technical surplus concepts: In the complementation with the above topic, and associated with the Reliability theorems, where we act with the Probability of Failure state, with which we almost interest with the design stages, that is to check and adapt the design of the elements. But in Maintainability we act in a different way as we act with the actual state of the systems. So, we act with the rest of the story that means we have to act with the complementary part of the probability of failure term which refers to the actual surplus of the functionality for the systems.

Keywords: engineering product and technical systems, functional span age, legal and illegal defects, technical and functional surplus

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Authors: L. E. Mphahama, A. Mushunje, A. Taruvinga

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Although broiler production does not generate any large incomes among the smallholder community, it represents the main source of livelihood and part of nutritional requirement. As a result, market for broiler meat is growing faster than that of any other meat products and is projected to continue growing in the coming decades. However, the implication is that a multitude of factors manipulates transformation of smallholder broiler farmers participating in the mainstream markets. From 217 smallholder broiler farmers, socio-economic and institutional factors in broiler farming were incorporated into Binary model to estimate the probability of broiler farmers’ participation in the mainstream markets within the Maseru district in Lesotho. Of the thirteen (13) predictor variables fitted into the model, six (6) variables (household size, number of years in broiler business, stock size, access to transport, access to extension services and access to market information) had significant coefficients while seven (7) variables (level of education, marital status, price of broilers, poultry association, access to contract, access to credit and access to storage) did not have a significant impact. It is recommended that smallholder broiler farmers organize themselves into cooperatives which will act as a vehicle through which they can access contracts and formal markets. These cooperatives will also enable easy training and workshops for broiler rearing and marketing/markets through extension visits.

Keywords: broiler chicken, mainstream market, Maseru district, participation, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Sourour Chaabane, Davide Clematis, Marco Panizza

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This study investigates the oxidation of Erythrosine B (EB) food dye by a homogeneous electro-Fenton process using iron (II) sulfate heptahydrate as a catalyst, carbon felt as cathode, and Ti/RuO2. The treated synthetic wastewater contains 100 mg L⁻¹ of EB and has a pH = 3. The effects of three independent variables have been considered for process optimization, such as applied current intensity (0.1 – 0.5 A), iron concentration (1 – 10 mM), and stirring rate (100 – 1000 rpm). Their interactions were investigated considering response surface methodology (RSM) based on Doehlert design as optimization method. EB removal efficiency and energy consumption were considered model responses after 30 minutes of electrolysis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that the quadratic model was adequately fitted to the experimental data with R² (0.9819), adj-R² (0.9276) and low Fisher probability (< 0.0181) for EB removal model, and R² (0.9968), adj-R² (0.9872) and low Fisher probability (< 0.0014) relative to the energy consumption model reflected a robust statistical significance. The energy consumption model significantly depends on current density, as expected. The foregoing results obtained by RSM led to the following optimal conditions for EB degradation: current intensity of 0.2 A, iron concentration of 9.397 mM, and stirring rate of 500 rpm, which gave a maximum decolorization rate of 98.15 % with a minimum energy consumption of 0.74 kWh m⁻³ at 30 min of electrolysis.

Keywords: electrofenton, erythrosineb, dye, response serface methdology, carbon felt

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Authors: Eu Tteum Ha, Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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The smart home environment backed up by IoT (internet of things) technologies enables intelligent services based on the awareness of the situation a user is currently in. One of the convenient sensors for recognizing the situations within a home is the smart meter that can monitor the status of each electrical appliance in real time. This paper aims at learning a Bayesian network that models the causal relationship between the user situations and the status of the electrical appliances. Using such a network, we can infer the current situation based on the observed status of the appliances. However, learning the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the network requires many training examples that cannot be obtained unless the user situations are closely monitored by any means. This paper proposes a method for learning the CPT entries of the network relying only on the user feedbacks generated occasionally. In our case study with a robot vacuum cleaner, the feedback comes in whenever the user gives an order to the robot adversely from its preprogrammed setting. Given a network with randomly initialized CPT entries, our proposed method uses this feedback information to adjust relevant CPT entries in the direction of increasing the probability of recognizing the desired situations. Simulation experiments show that our method can rapidly improve the recognition performance of the Bayesian network using a relatively small number of feedbacks.

Keywords: Bayesian network, IoT, learning, situation -awareness, smart home

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Authors: Alla Levina, Sergey Taranov

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The classical approach to the providing noise immunity and integrity of information that process in computing devices and communication channels is to use linear codes. Linear codes have fast and efficient algorithms of encoding and decoding information, but this codes concentrate their detect and correct abilities in certain error configurations. To protect against any configuration of errors at predetermined probability can robust codes. This is accomplished by the use of perfect nonlinear and almost perfect nonlinear functions to calculate the code redundancy. The paper presents the error-correcting coding scheme using biorthogonal wavelet transform. Wavelet transform applied in various fields of science. Some of the wavelet applications are cleaning of signal from noise, data compression, spectral analysis of the signal components. The article suggests methods for constructing linear codes based on wavelet decomposition. For developed constructions we build generator and check matrix that contain the scaling function coefficients of wavelet. Based on linear wavelet codes we develop robust codes that provide uniform protection against all errors. In article we propose two constructions of robust code. The first class of robust code is based on multiplicative inverse in finite field. In the second robust code construction the redundancy part is a cube of information part. Also, this paper investigates the characteristics of proposed robust and linear codes.

Keywords: robust code, linear code, wavelet decomposition, scaling function, error masking probability

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Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, we develop a supplier selection and order allocation multi-objective model in stochastic environment in which purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. To do so, we use dependent chance programming (DCP) that maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. After transforming the above mentioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem into a stochastic single objective problem using minimum deviation method, we apply a genetic algorithm to get the later single objective problem solved. The employed genetic algorithm performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. At the end, we explore the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that as stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is worsened.

Keywords: dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm, minimum deviation method, order allocation, supplier selection

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Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we propose an approach of detecting the behavior of the viewers of a TV program in a non-controlled environment. The experiment we propose is based on the use of three types of connected objects (smartphone, smart watch, and a connected remote control). 23 participants were observed while watching their TV programs during three phases: before, during and after watching a TV program. Their behaviors were detected using an approach based on The Dempster Shafer Theory (DST) in two phases. The first phase is to approximate dynamically the mass functions using an approach based on the correlation coefficient. The second phase is to calculate the approximate mass functions. To approximate the mass functions, two approaches have been tested: the first approach was to divide each features data space into cells; each one has a specific probability distribution over the behaviors. The probability distributions were computed statistically (estimated by empirical distribution). The second approach was to predict the TV-viewing behaviors through the use of classifiers algorithms and add uncertainty to the prediction based on the uncertainty of the model. Results showed that mixing the fusion rule with the computation of the initial approximate mass functions using a classifier led to an overall of 96%, 95% and 96% success rate for the first, second and third TV-viewing phase respectively. The results were also compared to those found in the literature. This study aims to anticipate certain actions in order to maintain the attention of TV viewers towards the proposed TV programs with usual connected objects, taking into account the various uncertainties that can be generated.

Keywords: Iot, TV-viewing behaviors identification, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

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Authors: Hesham A. Elkaranshawy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Hosam M. Ezzat

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The system of ordinary nonlinear differential equations describing sliding velocity during impact with friction for a three-dimensional rigid-multibody system is developed. No analytical solutions have been obtained before for this highly nonlinear system. Hence, a power series solution is proposed. Since the validity of this solution is limited to its convergence zone, a suitable time step is chosen and at the end of it a new series solution is constructed. For a case study, the trajectory of the sliding velocity using the proposed method is built using 6 time steps, which coincides with a Runge-Kutta solution using 38 time steps.

Keywords: impact with friction, nonlinear ordinary differential equations, power series solutions, rough collision

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Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

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Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model

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Authors: Hanefi Cinar, Musa Cibuk, Ismail Erturk, Fikri Aggun, Munip Geylani

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Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks (MWSNs) carry heterogeneous data traffic with different urgency and quality of service (QoS) requirements. There are a lot of studies made on energy efficiency, bandwidth, and communication methods in literature. But delay, high throughput, utility parameters are not well considered. Increasing demand for real-time data transfer makes these parameters more important. In this paper we design new MAC protocol which is delay constrained and targets for improving delay, utility, and throughput performance of the network and finding solutions on collision and interference problems. Protocol improving QoS requirements by using TDMA, FDM, and OFDMA hybrid communication methods with multi-channel communication.

Keywords: MWSN, delay, hybrid MAC, TDMA, FDM, OFDMA

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Authors: Behnaz Moradijamei, Michael Higgins

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Identifying community structure is a critical task in analyzing social media data sets often modeled by networks. Statistical models such as the stochastic block model have proven to explain the structure of communities in real-world network data. In this work, we develop a goodness-of-fit test to examine community structure's existence by using a distinguishing property in networks: cyclic structures are more prevalent within communities than across them. To better understand how communities are shaped by the cyclic structure of the network rather than just the number of edges, we introduce a novel method for deciding on the existence of communities. We utilize these structures by using renewal non-backtracking random walk (RNBRW) to the existing goodness-of-fit test. RNBRW is an important variant of random walk in which the walk is prohibited from returning back to a node in exactly two steps and terminates and restarts once it completes a cycle. We investigate the use of RNBRW to improve the performance of existing goodness-of-fit tests for community detection algorithms based on the spectral properties of the adjacency matrix. Our proposed test on community structure is based on the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the normalized retracing probability matrix derived by RNBRW. We attempt to make the best use of asymptotic results on such a distribution when there is no community structure, i.e., asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis. Moreover, we provide a theoretical foundation for our statistic by obtaining the true mean and a tight lower bound for RNBRW edge weights variance.

Keywords: hypothesis testing, RNBRW, network inference, community structure

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Authors: Pisut Boonkaew, Jatuporn Thongsri

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In hard disk drive manufacturing industry, the process of reducing an unnecessary part and qualifying the quality of part before assembling is important. Thus, clamp was designed and fabricated as a fixture for holding in testing process. Basically, testing by trial and error consumes a long time to improve. Consequently, the simulation was brought to improve the part and reduce the time taken. The problem is the present clamp has a low life expectancy because of the critical stress that occurred. Hence, the simulation was brought to study the behavior of stress and compressive force to improve the clamp expectancy with all probability of designs which are present up to 27 designs, which excluding the repeated designs. The probability was calculated followed by the full fractional rules of six sigma methodology which was provided correctly. The six sigma methodology is a well-structured method for improving quality level by detecting and reducing the variability of the process. Therefore, the defective will be decreased while the process capability increasing. This research focuses on the methodology of stress and fatigue reduction while compressive force still remains in the acceptable range that has been set by the company. In the simulation, ANSYS simulates the 3D CAD with the same condition during the experiment. Then the force at each distance started from 0.01 to 0.1 mm will be recorded. The setting in ANSYS was verified by mesh convergence methodology and compared the percentage error with the experimental result; the error must not exceed the acceptable range. Therefore, the improved process focuses on degree, radius, and length that will reduce stress and still remain in the acceptable force number. Therefore, the fatigue analysis will be brought as the next process in order to guarantee that the lifetime will be extended by simulating through ANSYS simulation program. Not only to simulate it, but also to confirm the setting by comparing with the actual clamp in order to observe the different of fatigue between both designs. This brings the life time improvement up to 57% compared with the actual clamp in the manufacturing. This study provides a precise and trustable setting enough to be set as a reference methodology for the future design. Because of the combination and adaptation from the six sigma method, finite element, fatigue and linear regressive analysis that lead to accurate calculation, this project will able to save up to 60 million dollars annually.

Keywords: clamp, finite element analysis, structural, six sigma, linear regressive analysis, fatigue analysis, probability

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Authors: Abdulatif Abdusalam, Mohamed Shaban

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In this paper, we consider the nonlinear pulse propagation through a nonuniform birefringent fiber Bragg grating (FBG) whose index modulation depth varies along the propagation direction. Here, the pulse propagation is governed by the nonlinear birefringent coupled mode (NLBCM) equations. To form the Bragg soliton outside the photonic bandgap (PBG), the NLBCM equations are reduced to the well known NLS type equation by multiple scale analysis. As we consider the pulse propagation in a nonuniform FBG, the pulse propagation outside the PBG is governed by inhomogeneous NLS (INLS) rather than NLS. We, then, discuss the formation of soliton in the FBG known as Bragg soliton whose central frequency lies outside but close to the PBG of the grating structure. Further, we discuss Bragg soliton compression due to a delicate balance between the SPM and the varying grating induced dispersion. In addition, Bragg soliton collision, Bragg soliton switching and possible logic gates have also been discussed.

Keywords: Bragg grating, non uniform fiber, non linear pulse

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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Authors: Chao Xu

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Selecting ground motion intensity measures reasonably is one of the very important issues to affect the input ground motions selecting and the reliability of vulnerability analysis results. In this paper, inelastic spectral displacement is used as an alternative intensity measure to characterize the ground motion damage potential. The inelastic spectral displacement is calculated based modal pushover analysis and inelastic spectral displacement based incremental dynamic analysis is developed. Probability seismic demand analysis of a six story and an eleven story RC frame are carried out through cloud analysis and advanced incremental dynamic analysis. The sufficiency and efficiency of inelastic spectral displacement are investigated by means of regression and residual analysis, and compared with elastic spectral displacement. Vulnerability curves are developed based on inelastic spectral displacement. The study shows that inelastic spectral displacement reflects the impact of different frequency components with periods larger than fundamental period on inelastic structural response. The damage potential of ground motion on structures with fundamental period prolonging caused by structural soften can be caught by inelastic spectral displacement. To be compared with elastic spectral displacement, inelastic spectral displacement is a more sufficient and efficient intensity measure, which reduces the uncertainty of vulnerability analysis and the impact of input ground motion selection on vulnerability analysis result.

Keywords: vulnerability, probability seismic demand analysis, ground motion intensity measure, sufficiency, efficiency, inelastic time history analysis

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Authors: Luis N. Pereira, Marco P. Carrasco

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Dynamic pricing is a revenue management strategy in which hotel suppliers define, over time, flexible and different prices for their services for different potential customers, considering the profile of e-consumers and the demand and market supply. This means that the fundamentals of dynamic pricing are based on economic theory (price elasticity of demand) and market segmentation. This study aims to define a dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the e-consumers profile in order to improve the number of reservations of an online distribution channel. Segmentation methods (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) were used to identify and validate an optimal number of market segments. A profile of the market segments was studied, considering the characteristics of the e-consumers and the probability of reservation a room. In addition, the price elasticity of demand was estimated for each segment using econometric models. Finally, predictive models were used to define rules for classifying new e-consumers into pre-defined segments. The empirical study illustrates how it is possible to improve the intelligence of an online distribution channel system through an optimal dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the profile of each new e-consumer. A database of 11 million e-consumers of an online distribution channel was used in this study. The results suggest that an appropriate policy of market segmentation in using of online reservation systems is benefit for the service suppliers because it brings high probability of reservation and generates more profit than fixed pricing.

Keywords: dynamic pricing, e-consumers segmentation, online reservation systems, predictive analytics

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Authors: Lana Dalawr Jalal

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of offline path planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in complex three-dimensional environment with obstacles, which is modelled by 3D Cartesian grid system. Path planning for UAVs require the computational intelligence methods to move aerial vehicles along the flight path effectively to target while avoiding obstacles. In this paper Modified Particle Swarm Optimization (MPSO) algorithm is applied to generate the optimal collision free 3D flight path for UAV. The simulations results clearly demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in guiding UAV to the final destination by providing optimal feasible path quickly and effectively.

Keywords: obstacle avoidance, particle swarm optimization, three-dimensional path planning unmanned aerial vehicles

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

Abstract:

The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Thapa Sirjana, Clifton R. Emery

Abstract:

This paper examines the family order and Informal Social Control (ISC) by the extended families as a protective factor against Child Maltreatment. The findings are discussed using the main effects and the interaction effects of family order and informal social control by the extended families. The findings suggest that IPV mothers are associated with child abuse and child neglect. The children are neglected in the home more and physical abuse occurs in the case, if mothers are abused by their husbands. The mother’s difficulties of being abused may lead them to neglect their children. The findings suggest that ‘family order’ is a significant protective factor against child maltreatment. The results suggest that if the family order is neither too high nor too low than that can play a role as a protective factor. Soft type of ISC is significantly associated with child maltreatment. This study suggests that the soft type of ISC by the extended families is a helpful approach to develop child protection in both the countries. This study is analyzed the data collected from Seoul and Kathmandu families and neighborhood study (SKFNS). Random probability cluster sample of married or partnered women in 20 Kathmandu wards and in Seoul 34 dongs were selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. Overall, the study is to make a comparative study of Korea and Nepal and examine how the cultural differences and similarities associate with the child maltreatment.

Keywords: child maltreatment, intimate partner violence, informal social control and family order Seoul, Kathmandu

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Authors: Ogbonnaya O. Iroanya, Samson T. Fakorede, Osamudiamen J. Edosa, Hadiat A. Azeez

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The human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is about 17 kbp circular DNA fragments found within the mitochondria together with smaller fragments of 1200 bp known as the control region. Knowledge of variation within populations has been employed in forensic and molecular anthropology studies. The study was aimed at investigating the polymorphic nature of the two hypervariable segments (HVS) of the mtDNA, i.e., HVS1 and HVS2, and to determine the haplogroup distribution among individuals resident in Lagos, Southwestern Nigeria. Peripheral blood samples were obtained from sixty individuals who are not related maternally, followed by DNA extraction and amplification of the extracted DNA using primers specific for the regions under investigation. DNA amplicons were sequenced, and sequenced data were aligned and compared to the revised Cambridge Reference Sequence (rCRS) GenBank Accession number: NC_012920.1) using BioEdit software. Results obtained showed 61 and 52 polymorphic nucleotide positions for HVS1 and HVS2, respectively. While a total of three indels mutation were recorded for HVS1, there were seven for HVS2. Also, transition mutations predominate nucleotide change observed in the study. Genetic diversity (GD) values for HVS1 and HVS2 were estimated to be 84.21 and 90.4%, respectively, while random match probability was 0.17% for HVS1 and 0.89% for HVS2. The study also revealed mixed haplogroups specific to the African (L1-L3) and the Eurasians (U and H) lineages. New polymorphic sites obtained from the study are promising for human identification purposes.

Keywords: hypervariable region, indels, mitochondrial DNA, polymorphism, random match probability

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Authors: Lutfi Abosrra, Alseddeq Alabaoub, Nuri Elhaloudi

Abstract:

Corrosion processes in the Oil & Gas industry can lead to failures that are usually costly to repair, costly in terms of loss of contaminated product, in terms of environmental damage and possibly costly in terms of human safety. This article describes the results of the corrosion review and criticality assessment done at Mellitah Gas (SRU unit) for pressure equipment and piping system. The information gathered through the review was intended for developing a qualitative RBI study. The corrosion criticality assessment has been carried out by applying company procedures and industrial recommended practices such as API 571, API 580/581, ASME PCC 3, which provides a guideline for establishing corrosion integrity assessment. The corrosion review is intimately related to the probability of failure (POF). During the corrosion study, the process units are reviewed by following the applicable process flow diagrams (PFDs) in the presence of Mellitah’s personnel from process engineering, inspection, and corrosion/materials and reliability engineers. The expected corrosion damage mechanism (internal and external) was identified, and the corrosion rate was estimated for every piece of equipment and corrosion loop in the process units. A combination of both Consequence and Likelihood of failure was used for determining the corrosion risk. A qualitative consequence of failure (COF) for each individual item was assigned based on the characteristics of the fluid as per its flammability, toxicity, and pollution into three levels (High, Medium, and Low). A qualitative probability of failure (POF)was applied to evaluate the internal and external degradation mechanism, a high-level point-based (0 to 10) for the purpose of risk prioritizing in the range of Low, Medium, and High.

Keywords: corrosion, criticality assessment, RBI, POF, COF

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