Search results for: accelerating universes in brane scenarios
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1517

Search results for: accelerating universes in brane scenarios

1187 Use of Alternative Water Sources Based on a Rainwater in the Multi-Dwelling Urban Building 2030

Authors: Monika Lipska

Abstract:

Drinking water is water with a very high quality, and as such represents only 2.5% of the total quantity of all water in the world. For many years we have observed continuous increase in its consumption as a result of many factors such as: Growing world population (7 billion in 2011r.), increase of human lives comfort and – above all – the economic growth. Due to the rocketing consumption and growing costs of production of water with such high-quality parameters, we experience accelerating interest in alternative sources of obtaining potable water. One of the ways of saving this valuable material is using rainwater in the Urban Building. With an exponentially growing demand, the acquisition of additional sources of water is necessary to maintain the proper balance of all ecosystems. The first part of the paper describes what rainwater is and what are its potential sources and means of use, while the main part of the article focuses on the description of the methods of obtaining water from rain on the example of new urban building in Poland. It describes the method and installations of rainwater in the new urban building (“MBJ2030”). The paper addresses also the issue of monitoring of the whole recycling systems as well as the particular quality indicators important because of identification of the potential risks to human health. The third part describes the legal arrangements concerning the recycling of rainwater existing in different European Union countries with particular reference to Poland on example the new urban building in Warsaw.

Keywords: rainwater, potable water, non-potable water, Poland

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1186 Transient Freshwater-Saltwater Transition-Zone Dynamics in Heterogeneous Coastal Aquifers

Authors: Antoifi Abdoulhalik, Ashraf Ahmed

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The ever growing threat of saltwater intrusion has prompted the need to further advance the understanding of underlying processes related to SWI for effective water resource management. While research efforts have mainly been focused on steady state analysis, studies on the transience of saltwater intrusion mechanism remain very scarce and studies considering transient SWI in heterogeneous medium are, as per our knowledge, simply inexistent. This study provides for the first time a quantitative analysis of the effect of both inland and coastal water level changes on the transition zone under transient conditions in layered coastal aquifer. In all, two sets of four experiments were completed, including a homogeneous case, and four layered cases: case LH and case HL presented were two bi-layered scenarios where a low K layer was set at the top and the bottom, respectively; case HLH and case LHL presented two stratified aquifers with High K–Low K–High K and Low K–High K– Low K pattern, respectively. Experimental automated image analysis technique was used here to quantify the main SWI parameters under high spatial and temporal resolution. The findings of this study provide an invaluable insight on the underlying processes responsible of transition zone dynamics in coastal aquifers. The results show that in all the investigated cases, the width of the transition zone remains almost unchanged throughout the saltwater intrusion process regardless of where the boundary change occurs. However, the results demonstrate that the width of the transition zone considerably increases during the retreat, with largest amplitude observed in cases LH and LHL, where a low K was set at the top of the system. In all the scenarios, the amplitude of widening was slightly smaller when the retreat was prompted by instantaneous drop of the saltwater level than when caused by inland freshwater rise, despite equivalent absolute head change magnitude. The magnitude of head change significantly caused larger widening during the saltwater wedge retreat, while having no impact during the intrusion phase.

Keywords: freshwater-saltwater transition-zone dynamics, heterogeneous coastal aquifers, laboratory experiments, transience seawater intrusion

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1185 Energy Loss Reduction in Oil Refineries through Flare Gas Recovery Approaches

Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C3 and C4 content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis

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1184 Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Productivity and Nutrient Use Efficiency of Maize in the Semi-arid Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.

Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity

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1183 Scanning Electron Microscopy of the Erythrocytes of Channa punctatus (Bloch) Exposed to Mercuric Chloride

Authors: Shweta Maheshwari, Anish Dua

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Hematological changes reflect the adverse effects of heavy metals on fish. Hematology is a valuable tool to evaluate pathological condition of the fish. It helps in diagnosing the structural and functional status of fish exposed to toxicants. Morphological alteration in erythrocytes due to environmental stress can be studied through ultra-structural analysis. The aim of the present study was to assess the toxicity of mercuric chloride on red blood cells of an air breathing fish, Channa punctatus. Fish were subjected to chronic experiments using three sublethal concentration of mercuric chloride (0.020mg/L, 0.027mg/L, 0.040mg/L) for a period of 15, 30 and 60 days. Exposed fish of all the three concentrations were subjected to a recovery period of 30 days. A control was maintained in tap water simultaneously. For SEM analysis, blood from caudal vein of fish was taken and examined at an accelerating voltage of 20kV. Scanning electron micrographs revealed elliptical shaped erythrocytes of control fish. Alterations in the erythrocyte morphology such as presence of spherocytes, membrane internalization, crenation of membrane and development of lobopodial projections were observed in the exposed fish. The study revealed that ultra-structural analysis appears to be a sensitive method to evaluate the toxicity of various toxicants to fish.

Keywords: Channa punctatus, erythrocytes, mercuric chloride, scanning electron microscopy

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1182 Introduction of an Approach of Complex Virtual Devices to Achieve Device Interoperability in Smart Building Systems

Authors: Thomas Meier

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One of the major challenges for sustainable smart building systems is to support device interoperability, i.e. connecting sensor or actuator devices from different vendors, and present their functionality to the external applications. Furthermore, smart building systems are supposed to connect with devices that are not available yet, i.e. devices that become available on the market sometime later. It is of vital importance that a sustainable smart building platform provides an appropriate external interface that can be leveraged by external applications and smart services. An external platform interface must be stable and independent of specific devices and should support flexible and scalable usage scenarios. A typical approach applied in smart home systems is based on a generic device interface used within the smart building platform. Device functions, even of rather complex devices, are mapped to that generic base type interface by means of specific device drivers. Our new approach, presented in this work, extends that approach by using the smart building system’s rule engine to create complex virtual devices that can represent the most diverse properties of real devices. We examined and evaluated both approaches by means of a practical case study using a smart building system that we have developed. We show that the solution we present allows the highest degree of flexibility without affecting external application interface stability and scalability. In contrast to other systems our approach supports complex virtual device configuration on application layer (e.g. by administration users) instead of device configuration at platform layer (e.g. platform operators). Based on our work, we can show that our approach supports almost arbitrarily flexible use case scenarios without affecting the external application interface stability. However, the cost of this approach is additional appropriate configuration overhead and additional resource consumption at the IoT platform level that must be considered by platform operators. We conclude that the concept of complex virtual devices presented in this work can be applied to improve the usability and device interoperability of sustainable intelligent building systems significantly.

Keywords: Internet of Things, smart building, device interoperability, device integration, smart home

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1181 Improving Usability of e-Government for the Elderly

Authors: Tamas Molnar

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Electronic government systems are currently in the same development stage as e-commerce applications were about in the late 1990s. Wide adoption by the majority of population is near, as such services are not only more and more desired by the users, but also strongly advocated and pushed by the state, as a means to increase effectiveness and cut expenses at the same time. Diffusion is however hampered by the low motivation caused by usability issues which will cause more and more frustration as the general population ages. Usability centred design is essential when creating such services. Elderly users, who have statistically the least experience, have the most problems, and therefore reject unusable systems first. The goal of our research was to find a way to map the needs of the elderly and create guidelines for the design of electronic government systems which are usable for the whole population. The first phase of our research, started mid-2009, was centred on the idea to gather information about the needs of the target group, in both Germany and Hungary with over 70 participants. This was done with the help of scenarios, interviews and questionnaires. The supplied data enabled to choose an eGovernment system for tests on the target group. Tests conducted in Germany and Hungary were based on the design and functions of the German electronic ID card, in the native languages. Scenarios mirroring common, every day transactions requiring an identification procedure were used. The obtained results allowed us to develop a generalised solution, the IGUAN guideline. This guideline makes a standardised approach to the usability improvement process possible. It contains the special requirements of elderly users, and a catalogue of criteria, which helps to develop an application in line with the set requirements. The third phase of our research was used a proof of concept for the IGUAN. The guideline was evaluated and tested with an iterative prototyping. The successful completion of this phase indicates that the IGUAN can be used to measurably increase the acceptance of e-government systems by elderly users. We could therefore demonstrate that improvements in the interface make e-government application possible which are perceived useful and easy to use by elderly users. These improvements will measurably increase the user motivation and experience. This can however only be achieved with a structured design process, and requires a framework which takes the requirements of the elderly users into account.

Keywords: e-Government, usability, acceptance, guidelines

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1180 Potential Opportunity and Challenge of Developing Organic Rankine Cycle Geothermal Power Plant in China Based on an Energy-Economic Model

Authors: Jiachen Wang, Dongxu Ji

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Geothermal power generation is a mature technology with zero carbon emission and stable power output, which could play a vital role as an optimum substitution of base load technology in China’s future decarbonization society. However, the development of geothermal power plants in China is stagnated for a decade due to the underestimation of geothermal energy and insufficient favoring policy. Lack of understanding of the potential value of base-load technology and environmental benefits is the critical reason for disappointed policy support. This paper proposed a different energy-economic model to uncover the potential benefit of developing a geothermal power plant in Puer, including the value of base-load power generation, and environmental and economic benefits. Optimization of the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for maximum power output and minimum Levelized cost of electricity was first conducted. This process aimed at finding the optimum working fluid, turbine inlet pressure, pinch point temperature difference and superheat degrees. Then the optimal ORC model was sent to the energy-economic model to simulate the potential economic and environmental benefits. Impact of geothermal power plants based on the scenarios of implementing carbon trade market, the direct subsidy per electricity generation and nothing was tested. In addition, a requirement of geothermal reservoirs, including geothermal temperature and mass flow rate for a competitive power generation technology with other renewables, was listed. The result indicated that the ORC power plant has a significant economic and environmental benefit over other renewable power generation technologies when implementing carbon trading market and subsidy support. At the same time, developers must locate the geothermal reservoirs with minimum temperature and mass flow rate of 130 degrees and 50 m/s to guarantee a profitable project under nothing scenarios.

Keywords: geothermal power generation, optimization, energy model, thermodynamics

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1179 Water Footprint for the Palm Oil Industry in Malaysia

Authors: Vijaya Subramaniam, Loh Soh Kheang, Astimar Abdul Aziz

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Water footprint (WFP) has gained importance due to the increase in water scarcity in the world. This study analyses the WFP for an agriculture sector, i.e., the oil palm supply chain, which produces oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB), crude palm oil, palm kernel, and crude palm kernel oil. The water accounting and vulnerability evaluation (WAVE) method was used. This method analyses the water depletion index (WDI) based on the local blue water scarcity. The main contribution towards the WFP at the plantation was the production of FFB from the crop itself at 0.23m³/tonne FFB. At the mill, the burden shifts to the water added during the process, which consists of the boiler and process water, which accounted for 6.91m³/tonne crude palm oil. There was a 33% reduction in the WFP when there was no dilution or water addition after the screw press at the mill. When allocation was performed, the WFP reduced by 42% as the burden was shared with the palm kernel and palm kernel shell. At the kernel crushing plant (KCP), the main contributor towards the WFP 4.96 m³/tonne crude palm kernel oil which came from the palm kernel which carried the burden from upstream followed by electricity, 0.33 m³/tonne crude palm kernel oil used for the process and 0.08 m³/tonne crude palm kernel oil for transportation of the palm kernel. A comparison was carried out for mills with biogas capture versus no biogas capture, and the WFP had no difference for both scenarios. The comparison when the KCPs operate in the proximity of mills as compared to those operating in the proximity of ports only gave a reduction of 6% for the WFP. Both these scenarios showed no difference and insignificant difference, which differed from previous life cycle assessment studies on the carbon footprint, which showed significant differences. This shows that findings change when only certain impact categories are focused on. It can be concluded that the impact from the water used by the oil palm tree is low due to the practice of no irrigation at the plantations and the high availability of water from rainfall in Malaysia. This reiterates the importance of planting oil palm trees in regions with high rainfall all year long, like the tropics. The milling stage had the most significant impact on the WFP. Mills should avoid dilution to reduce this impact.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, water footprint, crude palm oil, crude palm kernel oil, WAVE method

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1178 Simulating the Surface Runoff for the Urbanized Watershed of Mula-Mutha River from Western Maharashtra, India

Authors: Anargha A. Dhorde, Deshpande Gauri, Amit G. Dhorde

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Mula-Mutha basin is one of the speedily urbanizing watersheds, wherein two major urban centers, Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, have developed at a shocking rate in the last two decades. Such changing land use/land cover (LULC) is prone to hydrological problems and flash floods are a frequent, eventuality in the lower reaches of the basin. The present research brings out the impact of varying LULC, impervious surfaces on urban surface hydrology and generates storm-runoff scenarios for the hydrological units. The two multi-temporal satellite images were processed and supervised classification is performed with > 75% accuracy. The built-up has increased from 14.4% to 34.37% in the 28 years span, which is concentrated in and around the Pune-PCMC region. Impervious surfaces that were obtained by population calibrated multiple regression models. Almost 50% area of the watershed is impervious, which attribute to increase surface runoff and flash floods. The SCS-CN method was employed to calculate surface runoff of the watershed. The comparison between calculated and measured values of runoff was performed in a statistically precise way which shows no significant difference. Increasing built-up areas, as well as impervious surface areas due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, may lead to generating high runoff volumes in the basin especially in the urbanized areas of the watershed and along the major transportation arteries. Simulations generated with 50 mm and 100 mm rainstorm depth conspicuously noted that most of the changes in terms of increased runoff are constricted to the highly urbanized areas. Considering whole watershed area, the runoff values 39 m³ generated with 1'' rainfall whereas only urbanized areas of the basin (Pune and Pimpari-Chinchwad) were generated 11154 m³ runoff. Such analysis is crucial in providing information regarding their intensity and location, which proves instrumental in their analysis in order to formulate proper mitigation measures and rehabilitation strategies.

Keywords: land use/land cover, LULC, impervious surfaces, surface hydrology, storm-runoff scenarios

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1177 Loading Methodology for a Capacity Constrained Job-Shop

Authors: Viraj Tyagi, Ajai Jain, P. K. Jain, Aarushi Jain

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This paper presents a genetic algorithm based loading methodology for a capacity constrained job-shop with the consideration of alternative process plans for each part to be produced. Performance analysis of the proposed methodology is carried out for two case studies by considering two different manufacturing scenarios. Results obtained indicate that the methodology is quite effective in improving the shop load balance, and hence, it can be included in the frameworks of manufacturing planning systems of job-shop oriented industries.

Keywords: manufacturing planning, loading, genetic algorithm, job shop

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1176 The Collaboration between Resident and Non-resident Patent Applicants as a Strategy to Accelerate Technological Advance in Developing Nations

Authors: Hugo Rodríguez

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Migrations of researchers, scientists, and inventors are a widespread phenomenon in modern times. In some cases, migrants stay linked to research groups in their countries of origin, either out of their own conviction or because of government policies. We examine different linear models of technological development (using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique) in eight selected countries and find that the collaborations between resident and nonresident patent applicants correlate with different levels of performance of the technological policies in three different scenarios. Therefore, the reinforcement of that link must be considered a powerful tool for technological development.

Keywords: development, collaboration, patents, technology

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1175 Toward the Decarbonisation of EU Transport Sector: Impacts and Challenges of the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles

Authors: Francesca Fermi, Paola Astegiano, Angelo Martino, Stephanie Heitel, Michael Krail

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In order to achieve the targeted emission reductions for the decarbonisation of the European economy by 2050, fundamental contributions are required from both energy and transport sectors. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of a largescale diffusion of e-vehicles, either battery-based or fuel cells, together with the implementation of transport policies aiming at decreasing the use of motorised private modes in order to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, in the context of a future high share of renewable energy. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios on transport sector is performed with the ASTRA (ASsessment of TRAnsport Strategies) model. ASTRA is a strategic system-dynamic model at European scale (EU28 countries, Switzerland and Norway), consisting of different sub-modules related to specific aspects: the transport system (e.g. passenger trips, tonnes moved), the vehicle fleet (composition and evolution of technologies), the demographic system, the economic system, the environmental system (energy consumption, emissions). A key feature of ASTRA is that the modules are linked together: changes in one system are transmitted to other systems and can feed-back to the original source of variation. Thanks to its multidimensional structure, ASTRA is capable to simulate a wide range of impacts stemming from the application of transport policy measures: the model addresses direct impacts as well as second-level and third-level impacts. The simulation of the different scenarios is performed within the REFLEX project, where the ASTRA model is employed in combination with several energy models in a comprehensive Modelling System. From the transport sector perspective, some of the impacts are driven by the trend of electricity price estimated from the energy modelling system. Nevertheless, the major drivers to a low carbon transport sector are policies related to increased fuel efficiency of conventional drivetrain technologies, improvement of demand management (e.g. increase of public transport and car sharing services/usage) and diffusion of environmentally friendly vehicles (e.g. electric vehicles). The final modelling results of the REFLEX project will be available from October 2018. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios is performed in terms of transport, environmental and social indicators. The diffusion of e-vehicles produces a consistent reduction of future greenhouse gas emissions, although the decarbonisation target can be achieved only with the contribution of complementary transport policies on demand management and supporting the deployment of low-emission alternative energy for non-road transport modes. The paper explores the implications through time of transport policy measures on mobility and environment, underlying to what extent they can contribute to a decarbonisation of the transport sector. Acknowledgements: The results refer to the REFLEX project which has received grants from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 691685.

Keywords: decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions, e-mobility, transport policies, energy

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1174 Design of Fuzzy Logic Based Global Power System Stabilizer for Dynamic Stability Enhancement in Multi-Machine Power System

Authors: N. P. Patidar, J. Earnest, Laxmikant Nagar, Akshay Sharma

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This paper describes the diligence of a new input signal based fuzzy power system stabilizer in multi-machine power system. Instead of conventional input pairs like speed deviation (∆ω) and derivative of speed deviation i.e. acceleration (∆ω ̇) or speed deviation and accelerating power deviation of each machine, in this paper, deviation of active power through the tie line colligating two areas is used as one of the inputs to the fuzzy logic controller in concurrence with the speed deviation. Fuzzy Logic has the features of simple concept, easy effectuation, and computationally efficient. The advantage of this input is that, the same signal can be fed to each of the fuzzy logic controller connected with each machine. The simulated system comprises of two fully symmetrical areas coupled together by two 230 kV lines. Each area is equipped with two superposable generators rated 20 kV/900MVA and area-1 is exporting 413 MW to area-2. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme has been assessed by performing small signal stability assessment and transient stability assessment. The proposed control scheme has been compared with a conventional PSS. Digital simulation is used to demonstrate the performance of fuzzy logic controller.

Keywords: Power System Stabilizer (PSS), small signal stability, inter-area oscillation, fuzzy logic controller, membership function, rule base

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1173 Renewable Energy Industry Trends and Its Contributions to the Development of Energy Resilience in an Era of Accelerating Climate Change

Authors: A. T. Asutosh, J. Woo, M. Kouhirostami, M. Sam, A. Khantawang, C. Cuales, W. Ryor, C. Kibert

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Climate change and global warming vortex have grown to alarming proportions. Therefore, the need for a shift in the conceptualization of energy production is paramount. Energy practices have been created in the current situation. Fossil fuels continue their prominence, at the expense of renewable sources. Despite this abundance, a large percentage of the world population still has no access to electricity but there have been encouraging signs in global movement from nonrenewable to renewable energy but means to reverse climate change have been elusive. Worldwide, organizations have put tremendous effort into innovation. Conferences and exhibitions act as a platform that allows a broad exchange of information regarding trends in the renewable energy field. The Solar Power International (SPI) conference and exhibition is a gathering of concerned activists, and probably the largest convention of its kind. This study investigates current development in the renewable energy field, analyzing means by which industry is being applied to the issue. In reviewing the 2019 SPI conference, it was found innovations in recycling and assessing the environmental impacts of the solar products that need critical attention. There is a huge movement in the electrical storage but there exists a large gap in the development of security systems. This research will focus on solar energy, but impacts will be relevant to the entire renewable energy market.

Keywords: climate change, renewable energy, solar, trends, research, solar power international, SPI

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1172 Comparison of Risk Analysis Methodologies Through the Consequences Identification in Chemical Accidents Associated with Dangerous Flammable Goods Storage

Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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1171 Comparative Analysis of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms for Autonomous Driving

Authors: Migena Mana, Ahmed Khalid Syed, Abdul Malik, Nikhil Cherian

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In recent years, advancements in deep learning enabled researchers to tackle the problem of self-driving cars. Car companies use huge datasets to train their deep learning models to make autonomous cars a reality. However, this approach has certain drawbacks in that the state space of possible actions for a car is so huge that there cannot be a dataset for every possible road scenario. To overcome this problem, the concept of reinforcement learning (RL) is being investigated in this research. Since the problem of autonomous driving can be modeled in a simulation, it lends itself naturally to the domain of reinforcement learning. The advantage of this approach is that we can model different and complex road scenarios in a simulation without having to deploy in the real world. The autonomous agent can learn to drive by finding the optimal policy. This learned model can then be easily deployed in a real-world setting. In this project, we focus on three RL algorithms: Q-learning, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). To model the environment, we have used TORCS (The Open Racing Car Simulator), which provides us with a strong foundation to test our model. The inputs to the algorithms are the sensor data provided by the simulator such as velocity, distance from side pavement, etc. The outcome of this research project is a comparative analysis of these algorithms. Based on the comparison, the PPO algorithm gives the best results. When using PPO algorithm, the reward is greater, and the acceleration, steering angle and braking are more stable compared to the other algorithms, which means that the agent learns to drive in a better and more efficient way in this case. Additionally, we have come up with a dataset taken from the training of the agent with DDPG and PPO algorithms. It contains all the steps of the agent during one full training in the form: (all input values, acceleration, steering angle, break, loss, reward). This study can serve as a base for further complex road scenarios. Furthermore, it can be enlarged in the field of computer vision, using the images to find the best policy.

Keywords: autonomous driving, DDPG (deep deterministic policy gradient), PPO (proximal policy optimization), reinforcement learning

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1170 Assessing the Channel Design of the Eco-Friendly ‘Falaj’ Water System in Meeting the Optimal Water Demand: A Case Study of Falaj Al-Khatmain, Sultanate of Oman

Authors: Omer Al-Kaabi, Ahmed Nasr, Abdullah Al-Ghafri, Mohammed Abdelfattah

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The Falaj system, derived from natural water sources, is a man-made canal system designed to supply communities of farmers with water for domestic and agricultural purposes. For thousands of years, Falaj has served communities by harnessing the force of gravity; it persists as a vital water management system in numerous regions across the Sultanate of Oman. Remarkably, predates the establishment of many fundamental hydraulic principles used today. Al-Khatmain Falaj, with its accessibility and historical significance spanning over 2000 years, was chosen as the focal point of this study. The research aimed to investigate the efficiency of Al-Khatmain Falaj in meeting specific water demands. The HEC-RAS model was utilized to visualize water flow dynamics within the Falaj channels, accompanied by graphical representations of pertinent variables. The application of HEC-RAS helped to measure different water flow scenarios within the channel, enabling a clear comparison with the demand area catchment. The cultivated land of Al-Khatmain is 723,124 m² and consists of 16,873 palm trees representing 91% of the total area and the remaining 9% is mixed types of trees counted 3,920 trees. The study revealed a total demand of 8,244 m³ is required to irrigate the cultivated land. Through rigorous analysis, the study has proven that the Falaj system in Al-Khatmain operates with high efficiency, as the average annual water supply is 9676.8 m3/day. Additionally, the channel designed at 0.6m width x 0.3m height efficiently holds the optimal water supply, with an average flow depth of 0.21m. Also, the system includes an overflow drainage channel to mitigate floods and prevent crop damage based on seasonal requirements. This research holds promise for examining diverse hydrological conditions and devising effective strategies to manage scenarios of both high and low flow rates.

Keywords: Al-Khatmain, sustainability, Falaj, HEC-RAS, water management system

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1169 Protection of the Object of the Critical Infrastructure in the Czech Republic

Authors: Michaela Vašková

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With the increasing dependence of countries on the critical infrastructure, it increases their vulnerability. Big threat is primarily in the human factor (personnel of the critical infrastructure) and in terrorist attacks. It emphasizes the development of methodology for searching of weak points and their subsequent elimination. This article discusses methods for the analysis of safety in the objects of critical infrastructure. It also contains proposal for methodology for training employees of security services in the objects of the critical infrastructure and developing scenarios of attacks on selected objects of the critical infrastructure.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, object of critical infrastructure, protection, safety, security, security audit

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1168 Performance Evaluation of Routing Protocols in Vehicular Adhoc Networks

Authors: Salman Naseer, Usman Zafar, Iqra Zafar

Abstract:

This study explores the implication of Vehicular Adhoc Network (VANET) - in the rural and urban scenarios that is one domain of Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET). VANET provides wireless communication between vehicle to vehicle and also roadside units. The Federal Commission Committee of United States of American has been allocated 75 MHz of the spectrum band in the 5.9 GHz frequency range for dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) that are specifically designed to enhance any road safety applications and entertainment/information applications. There are several vehicular related projects viz; California path, car 2 car communication consortium, the ETSI, and IEEE 1609 working group that have already been conducted to improve the overall road safety or traffic management. After the critical literature review, the selection of routing protocols is determined, and its performance was well thought-out in the urban and rural scenarios. Numerous routing protocols for VANET are applied to carry out current research. Its evaluation was conceded with the help of selected protocols through simulation via performance metric i.e. throughput and packet drop. Excel and Google graph API tools are used for plotting the graphs after the simulation results in order to compare the selected routing protocols which result with each other. In addition, the sum of the output from each scenario was computed to undoubtedly present the divergence in results. The findings of the current study present that DSR gives enhanced performance for low packet drop and high throughput as compared to AODV and DSDV in an urban congested area and in rural environments. On the other hand, in low-density area, VANET AODV gives better results as compared to DSR. The worth of the current study may be judged as the information exchanged between vehicles is useful for comfort, safety, and entertainment. Furthermore, the communication system performance depends on the way routing is done in the network and moreover, the routing of the data based on protocols implement in the network. The above-presented results lead to policy implication and develop our understanding of the broader spectrum of VANET.

Keywords: AODV, DSDV, DSR, Adhoc network

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1167 Prioritizing Biodiversity Conservation Areas based on the Vulnerability and the Irreplaceability Framework in Mexico

Authors: Alma Mendoza-Ponce, Rogelio Corona-Núñez, Florian Kraxner

Abstract:

Mexico is a megadiverse country and it has nearly halved its natural vegetation in the last century due to agricultural and livestock expansion. Impacts of land use cover change and climate change are unevenly distributed and spatial prioritization to minimize the affectations on biodiversity is crucial. Global and national efforts for prioritizing biodiversity conservation show that ~33% to 45% of Mexico should be protected. The width of these targets makes difficult to lead resources. We use a framework based on vulnerability and irreplaceability to prioritize conservation efforts in Mexico. Vulnerability considered exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity under two scenarios (business as usual, BAU based, on the SSP2 and RCP 4.5 and a Green scenario, based on the SSP1 and the RCP 2.6). Exposure to land use is the magnitude of change from natural vegetation to anthropogenic covers while exposure to climate change is the difference between current and future values for both scenarios. Sensitivity was considered as the number of endemic species of terrestrial vertebrates which are critically endangered and endangered. Adaptive capacity is used as the ration between the percentage of converted area (natural to anthropogenic) and the percentage of protected area at municipality level. The results suggest that by 2050, between 11.6 and 13.9% of Mexico show vulnerability ≥ 50%, and by 2070, between 12.0 and 14.8%, in the Green and BAU scenario, respectively. From an ecosystem perspective cloud forests, followed by tropical dry forests, natural grasslands and temperate forests will be the most vulnerable (≥ 50%). Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates; 62% of the endemic amphibians are critically endangered or endangered while 39%, 12% and 9% of the mammals, birds, and reptiles, respectively. However, the distribution of these amphibians counts for only 3.3% of the country, while mammals, birds, and reptiles in these categories represent 10%, 16% and 29% of Mexico. There are 5 municipalities out of the 2,457 that Mexico has that represent 31% of the most vulnerable areas (70%).These municipalities account for 0.05% of Mexico. This multiscale approach can be used to address resources to conservation targets as ecosystems, municipalities or species considering land use cover change, climate change and biodiversity uniqueness.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, land use change, Mexico, vulnerability

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1166 A Game Theory Analysis of the Effectiveness of Passenger Profiling for Transportation Security

Authors: Yael Deutsch, Arieh Gavious

Abstract:

The threat of aviation terrorism and its potential damage became significant after the 9/11 terror attacks. These attacks have led authorities and leaders to suggest that security personnel should overcome politically correct scruples about profiling and use it openly. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the smart usage of profiling and its advantages. We analyze game models that are suitable to specific real-world scenarios, focusing on profiling as a tool to detect potential violators, such as terrorists and smugglers. We provide analytical and clear answers to difficult questions, and by that help fighting against harmful violation acts.

Keywords: game theory, profiling, security, nash equilibrium

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1165 A Study on Evaluation for Performance Verification of Ni-63 Radioisotope Betavoltaic Battery

Authors: Youngmok Yun, Bosung Kim, Sungho Lee, Kyeongsu Jeon, Hyunwook Hwangbo, Byounggun Choi

Abstract:

A betavoltaic battery converts nuclear energy released as beta particles (β-) directly into electrical energy. Betavoltaic cells are analogous to photovoltaic cells. The beta particle’s kinetic energy enters a p-n junction and creates electron-hole pairs. Subsequently, the built-in potential of the p-n junction accelerates the electrons and ions to their respective collectors. The major challenges are electrical conversion efficiencies and exact evaluation. In this study, the performance of betavoltaic battery was evaluated. The betavoltaic cell was evaluated in the same condition as radiation from radioactive isotope using by FE-SEM(field emission scanning electron microscope). The average energy of the radiation emitted from the Ni-63 radioisotope is 17.42 keV. FE-SEM is capable of emitting an electron beam of 1-30keV. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate betavoltaic cell without radioactive isotopes. The betavoltaic battery consists of radioisotope that is physically connected on the surface of Si-based PN diode. The performance of betavoltaic battery can be estimated by the efficiency of PN diode unit cell. The current generated by scanning electron microscope with fixed accelerating voltage (17keV) was measured by using faraday cup. Electrical characterization of the p-n junction diode was performed by using Nano Probe Work Station and I-V measurement system. The output value of the betavoltaic cells developed by this research team was 0.162 μw/cm2 and the efficiency was 1.14%.

Keywords: betavoltaic, nuclear, battery, Ni-63, radio-isotope

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1164 Climate Related Financial Risk on Automobile Industry and the Impact to the Financial Institutions

Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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1163 Rapid and Long-term Alien Language Analysis - Forming Frameworks for the Interpretation of Alien Communication for More Intelligent Life

Authors: Samiksha Raviraja, Junaid Arif

Abstract:

One of the most important abilities in species is the ability to communicate. This paper proposes steps to take when and if aliens came in contact with humans, and how humans would communicate with them. The situation would be a time-sensitive scenario, meaning that communication is at the utmost importance if such an event were to happen. First, humans would need to establish mutual peace by conveying that there is no threat to the alien race. Second, the aliens would need to acknowledge this understanding and reciprocate. This would be extremely difficult to do regardless of their intelligence level unless they are very human-like and have similarities to our way of communicating. The first step towards understanding their mind is to analyze their level of intelligence - Level 1-Low intelligence, Level 2-Human-like intelligence or Level 3-Advanced or High Intelligence. These three levels go hand in hand with the Kardashev scale. Further, the Barrow scale will also be used to categorize alien species in hopes of developing a common universal language to communicate in. This paper will delve into how the level of intelligence can be used toward achieving communication with aliens by predicting various possible scenarios and outcomes by proposing an intensive categorization system. This can be achieved by studying their Emotional and Intelligence Quotient (along with technological and scientific knowledge/intelligence). The limitations and capabilities of their intelligence must also be studied. By observing how they respond and react (expressions and senses) to different kinds of scenarios, items and people, the data will help enable good categorisation. It can be hypothesised that the more human-like aliens are or can relate to humans, the more likely it is that communication is possible. Depending on the situation, either human can teach aliens a human language, or humans can learn an alien language, or both races work together to develop a mutual understanding or mode of communication. There are three possible ways of contact. Aliens visit Earth, or humans discover aliens while on space exploration or through technology in the form of signals. A much rarer case would be humans and aliens running into each other during a space expedition of their own. The first two possibilities allow a more in-depth analysis of the alien life and enhanced results compared. The importance of finding a method of talking with aliens is important in order to not only protect Earth and humans but rather for the advancement of Science through the shared knowledge between the two species.

Keywords: intelligence, Kardashev scale, Barrow scale, alien civilizations, emotional and intelligence quotient

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1162 Investigation on Development of Pv and Wind Power with Hydro Pumped Storage to Increase Renewable Energy Penetration: A Parallel Analysis of Taiwan and Greece

Authors: Robel Habtemariam

Abstract:

Globally, wind energy and photovoltaics (PV) solar energy are among the leading renewable energy sources (RES) in terms of installed capacity. In order to increase the contribution of RES to the power supply system, large scale energy integration is required, mainly due to wind energy and PV. In this paper, an investigation has been made on the electrical power supply systems of Taiwan and Greece in order to integrate high level of wind and photovoltaic (PV) to increase the penetration of renewable energy resources. Currently, both countries heavily depend on fossil fuels to meet the demand and to generate adequate electricity. Therefore, this study is carried out to look into the two cases power supply system by developing a methodology that includes major power units. To address the analysis, an approach for simulation of power systems is formulated and applied. The simulation is based on the non-dynamic analysis of the electrical system. This simulation results in calculating the energy contribution of different types of power units; namely the wind, PV, non-flexible and flexible power units. The calculation is done for three different scenarios (2020, 2030, & 2050), where the first two scenarios are based on national targets and scenario 2050 is a reflection of ambitious global targets. By 2030 in Taiwan, the input of the power units is evaluated as 4.3% (wind), 3.7% (PV), 65.2 (non-flexible), 25.3% (flexible), and 1.5% belongs to hydropower plants. In Greece, much higher renewable energy contribution is observed for the same scenario with 21.7% (wind), 14.3% (PV), 38.7% (non-flexible), 14.9% (flexible), and 10.3% (hydro). Moreover, it examines the ability of the power systems to deal with the variable nature of the wind and PV generation. For this reason, an investigation has also been done on the use of the combined wind power with pumped storage systems (WPS) to enable the system to exploit the curtailed wind energy & surplus PV and thus increase the wind and PV installed capacity and replace the peak supply by conventional power units. Results show that the feasibility of pumped storage can be justified in the high scenario (that is the scenario of 2050) of RES integration especially in the case of Greece.

Keywords: large scale energy integration, photovoltaics solar energy, pumped storage systems, renewable energy sources

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1161 Enhancement of Rice Straw Composting Using UV Induced Mutants of Penicillium Strain

Authors: T. N. M. El Sebai, A. A. Khattab, Wafaa M. Abd-El Rahim, H. Moawad

Abstract:

Fungal mutant strains have produced cellulase and xylanase enzymes, and have induced high hydrolysis with enhanced of rice straw. The mutants were obtained by exposing Penicillium strain to UV-light treatments. Screening and selection after treatment with UV-light were carried out using cellulolytic and xylanolytic clear zones method to select the hypercellulolytic and hyperxylanolytic mutants. These mutants were evaluated for their cellulase and xylanase enzyme production as well as their abilities for biodegradation of rice straw. The mutant 12 UV/1 produced 306.21% and 209.91% cellulase and xylanase, respectively, as compared with the original wild type strain. This mutant showed high capacity of rice straw degradation. The effectiveness of tested mutant strain and that of wild strain was compared in relation to enhancing the composting process of rice straw and animal manures mixture. The results obtained showed that the compost product of inoculated mixture with mutant strain (12 UV/1) was the best compared to the wild strain and un-inoculated mixture. Analysis of the composted materials showed that the characteristics of the produced compost were close to those of the high quality standard compost. The results obtained in the present work suggest that the combination between rice straw and animal manure could be used for enhancing the composting process of rice straw and particularly when applied with fungal decomposer accelerating the composting process.

Keywords: rice straw, composting, UV mutants, Penicillium

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1160 A Randomised Simulation Study to Assess the Impact of a Focussed Crew Resource Management Course on UK Medical Students

Authors: S. MacDougall-Davis, S. Wysling, R. Willmore

Abstract:

Background: The application of good non-technical skills, also known as crew resource management (CRM), is central to the delivery of safe, effective healthcare. The authors have been running remote trauma courses for over 10 years, primarily focussing on developing participants’ CRM in time-critical, high-stress clinical situations. The course has undergone an iterative process over the past 10 years. We employ a number of experiential learning techniques for improving CRM, including small group workshops, military command tasks, high fidelity simulations with reflective debriefs, and a ‘flipped classroom’, where participants are asked to create their own simulations and assess and debrief their colleagues’ CRM. We created a randomised simulation study to assess the impact of our course on UK medical students’ CRM, both at an individual and a teams level. Methods: Sixteen students took part. Four clinical scenarios were devised, designed to be of similar urgency and complexity. Professional moulage effects and experienced clinical actors were used to increase fidelity and to further simulate high-stress environments. Participants were block randomised into teams of 4; each team was randomly assigned to one pre-course simulation. They then underwent our 5 day remote trauma CRM course. Post-course, students were re-randomised into four new teams; each was randomly assigned to a post-course simulation. All simulations were videoed. The footage was reviewed by two independent CRM-trained assessors, who were blinded to the before/after the status of the simulations. Assessors used the internationally validated team emergency assessment measure (TEAM) to evaluate key areas of team performance, as well as a global outcome rating. Prior to the study, assessors had scored two unrelated scenarios using the same assessment tool, demonstrating 89% concordance. Participants also completed pre- and post-course questionnaires. Likert scales were used to rate individuals’ perceived NTS ability and their confidence to work in a team in time-critical, high-stress situations. Results: Following participation in the course, a significant improvement in CRM was observed in all areas of team performance. Furthermore, the global outcome rating for team performance was markedly improved (40-70%; mean 55%), thus demonstrating an impact at Level 4 of Kirkpatrick’s hierarchy. At an individual level, participants’ self-perceived CRM improved markedly after the course (35-70% absolute improvement; mean 55%), as did their confidence to work in a team in high-stress situations. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that with a short, cost-effective course, using easily reproducible teaching sessions, it is possible to significantly improve participants’ CRM skills, both at an individual and, perhaps more importantly, at a teams level. The successful functioning of multi-disciplinary teams is vital in a healthcare setting, particularly in high-stress, time-critical situations. Good CRM is of paramount importance in these scenarios. The authors believe that these concepts should be introduced from the earliest stages of medical education, thus promoting a culture of effective CRM and embedding an early appreciation of the importance of these skills in enabling safe and effective healthcare.

Keywords: crew resource management, non-technical skills, training, simulation

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1159 Lessons Learned in Developing a Clinical Information System and Electronic Health Record (EHR) System That Meet the End User Needs and State of Qatar's Emerging Regulations

Authors: Darshani Premaratne, Afshin Kandampath Puthiyadath

Abstract:

The Government of Qatar is taking active steps in improving quality of health care industry in the state of Qatar. In this initiative development and market introduction of Clinical Information System and Electronic Health Record (EHR) system are proved to be a highly challenging process. Along with an organization specialized on EHR system development and with the blessing of Health Ministry of Qatar the process of introduction of EHR system in Qatar healthcare industry was undertaken. Initially a market survey was carried out to understand the requirements. Secondly, the available government regulations, needs and possible upcoming regulations were carefully studied before deployment of resources for software development. Sufficient flexibility was allowed to cater for both the changes in the market and the regulations. As the first initiative a system that enables integration of referral network where referral clinic and laboratory system for all single doctor (and small scale) clinics was developed. Setting of isolated single doctor clinics all over the state to bring in to an integrated referral network along with a referral hospital need a coherent steering force and a solid top down framework. This paper discusses about the lessons learned in developing, in obtaining approval of the health ministry and in introduction to the industry of the single doctor referral network along with an EHR system. It was concluded that development of this nature required continues balance between the market requirements and upcoming regulations. Further accelerating the development based on the emerging needs, implementation based on the end user needs while tallying with the regulations, diffusion, and uptake of demand-driven and evidence-based products, tools, strategies, and proper utilization of findings were equally found paramount in successful development of end product. Development of full scale Clinical Information System and EHR system are underway based on the lessons learned. The Government of Qatar is taking active steps in improving quality of health care industry in the state of Qatar. In this initiative development and market introduction of Clinical Information System and Electronic Health Record (EHR) system are proved to be a highly challenging process. Along with an organization specialized on EHR system development and with the blessing of Health Ministry of Qatar the process of introduction of EHR system in Qatar healthcare industry was undertaken. Initially a market survey was carried out to understand the requirements. Secondly the available government regulations, needs and possible upcoming regulations were carefully studied before deployment of resources for software development. Sufficient flexibility was allowed to cater for both the changes in the market and the regulations. As the first initiative a system that enables integration of referral network where referral clinic and laboratory system for all single doctor (and small scale) clinics was developed. Setting of isolated single doctor clinics all over the state to bring in to an integrated referral network along with a referral hospital need a coherent steering force and a solid top down framework. This paper discusses about the lessons learned in developing, in obtaining approval of the health ministry and in introduction to the industry of the single doctor referral network along with an EHR system. It was concluded that development of this nature required continues balance between the market requirements and upcoming regulations. Further accelerating the development based on the emerging needs, implementation based on the end user needs while tallying with the regulations, diffusion, and uptake of demand-driven and evidence-based products, tools, strategies, and proper utilization of findings were equally found paramount in successful development of end product. Development of full scale Clinical Information System and EHR system are underway based on the lessons learned.

Keywords: clinical information system, electronic health record, state regulations, integrated referral network of clinics

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1158 Application of DSSAT-CSM Model for Estimating Rain-Water Productivity of Maize (Zea Mays L.) Under Changing Climate of Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

Abstract:

Pressing demands for agricultural products and its associated pressure on water availability in the semi-arid areas demanded information for strategic decision-making in the changing climate conditions of Ethiopia. Availing such information through traditional agronomic research methods is not sufficient unless supported through the application of decision-support tools. The CERES (Crop Environmental Resource Synthesis) model in DSSAT-CSM was evaluated for estimating yield and water productivity of maize under two soil types (Andosol and Luvisol) of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. A six-year data (2010 – 2017) obtained from national fertilizer determination experiments were used for model evaluation. Pertinent statistical indices were employed to evaluate model performance. Following model evaluation, yield and rain-water productivity of maize was assessed for the baseline (1981-2010) and future climate (2050’s and 2080’s) scenario. The model performed well in predicting phenology, growth, and yield of maize for the different seasons and phosphorous rates. A good agreement between simulated and observed grain yield was indicated by low values of the RMSE (0.15 - 0.37 Mg/ha) and other indices for the two soil types. The evaluated model predicted a decline in the potential (23.8 to 26.7% at Melkassa and from 21.7 to 26.1% at Ziway under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively) and water-limited yield (15 to 18.3% at Melkassa and by 6.5 to 10.5% at Ziway) in the mid-century due to climate change. Consequently, a decline in water productivity was projected in the future periods that necessitate availing options to improve water productivity in the region. In conclusion, the DSSAT-CERES-maize model can be used to simulate maize (Melkassa-2) phenology, growth and grain yield, as well as simulate water productivity under different management scenarios that can help to identify options to improve water productivity in the changing climate of the semi-arid central Rift valley of Ethiopia.

Keywords: andosol, CERES-maize, luvisol, model evaluation, water productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 48