Search results for: food system model

Authors: Zhang Zijian

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Nowadays, spherical robots have played an important role in many fields, but the insufficient ability of obstacle surmounting limits their wider application fields. To solve this problem, a jumping system of a spherical robot is designed based on Archimedes helix. The jumping system of the robot utilizes the characteristics of Archimedes helix and isovelocity helix to achieve constant speed and stable contraction, which ensures the stability of the system. Also, the jumping action of the robot is realized by instantaneous release of elastic potential energy. In order to verify the effectiveness of the jumping system, we designed a spherical robot and its jumping system. The experimental results show that the jumping system has the advantages of light weight, small size, high energy conversion efficiency, and can realize the spherical jumping function.

Keywords: hopping mechanism, Archimedes' Helix, hopping robot, spherical robot

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Authors: Margarida Plana

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One of the most important energy challenge of the European policies is the transition to a Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB) model. A NZEB is a new concept of building that has the aim of reducing both the energy consumption and the carbon emissions to nearly zero of the course of a year. To achieve this nearly zero consumption, apart from being buildings with high efficiency levels, the energy consumed by the building has to be produced on-site. This paper is focused on presenting the results of the analysis developed on basis of real projects’ data in order to quantify the impact of end-users behavior. The analysis is focused on how the behavior of building’s occupants can vary the achievement of the energy savings targets and how they can be limited. The results obtained show that on this kind of project, with very high energy performance, is required to limit the end-users interaction with the system operation to be able to reach the targets fixed.

Keywords: end-users impacts, energy efficiency, energy savings, NZEB model

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Authors: Malgorzata Schwab, Ashis Kumer Biswas

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In this concept paper, we explore the topic of Reversibility in Neural Networks leveraged for Network Integrity Verification and crafted the term ''Trusted Neural Network'' (TNN), paired with the API abstraction around it, to embrace the idea formally. This newly proposed high-level generalizable TNN model builds upon the Invertible Neural Network architecture, trained simultaneously in both forward and reverse directions. This allows for the original system inputs to be compared with the ones reconstructed from the outputs in the reversed flow to assess the integrity of the end-to-end inference flow. The outcome of that assessment is captured as an Integrity Score. Concrete implementation reflecting the needs of specific problem domains can be derived from this general approach and is demonstrated in the experiments. The model aspires to become a useful practice in drafting high-level systems architectures which incorporate AI capabilities.

Keywords: trusted, neural, invertible, API

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Authors: Daniel S. Gamba, Marc Sánchez, Javier Pérez, Juan J. Castillo, Juan A. Cabrera

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The conventional hydraulic braking system operates through the activation of a master cylinder and solenoid valves that distribute and regulate brake fluid flow, adjusting the pressure at each wheel to prevent locking during sudden braking. However, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in the integration of electronic units into various vehicle control systems. In this context, one of the technologies most recently researched is the Brake-by-wire system, which combines electronic, hydraulic, and mechanical technologies to manage braking. This proposal introduces the design and control of a Brake-by-wire system, which will be part of a fully electric and teleoperated vehicle. This vehicle will have independent four-wheel drive, braking, and steering systems. The vehicle will be operated by embedded controllers programmed into a Speedgoat test system, which allows programming through Simulink and real-time capabilities. The braking system comprises all mechanical and electrical components, a vehicle control unit (VCU), and an electronic control unit (ECU). The mechanical and electrical components include a permanent magnet synchronous motor from Odrive and its inverter, the mechanical transmission system responsible for converting torque into pressure, and the hydraulic system that transmits this pressure to the brake caliper. The VCU is responsible for controlling the pressure and communicates with the other components through the CAN protocol, minimizing response times. The ECU, in turn, transmits the information obtained by a sensor installed in the caliper to the central computer, enabling the control loop to continuously regulate pressure by controlling the motor's speed and current. To achieve this, tree controllers are used, operating in a nested configuration for effective control. Since the computer allows programming in Simulink, a digital model of the braking system has been developed in Simscape, which makes it possible to reproduce different operating conditions, faithfully simulate the performance of alternative brake control systems, and compare the results with data obtained in various real tests. These tests involve evaluating the system's response to sinusoidal and square wave inputs at different frequencies, with the results compared to those obtained from conventional braking systems.

Keywords: braking, CAN protocol, permanent magnet motor, pressure control

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Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid

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Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.

Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Fooladi

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Because of the importance and effect of plant innovations on economy, industry, and especially agriculture, they have been on the core attention of legislators at the national level, and have been a topic of international documents related to intellectual innovations in the recent decades. For protection of plant innovations, two legal systems (i.e. particular system based on International Convention for protection of new variety of plants, and the patent system) have been considered. Ease of access to the support and the level of support in each of these systems are different. Our attempt in this paper, in addition to describing and analyzing the characteristics of each system, is to suggest the compatible system to the industry and agriculture of Afghanistan. Due to the lack of sufficient industrial infrastructure and academic research, the particular system based on the International Convention on the protection of new variety of plants is suggested. At the same time, appropriate industrial and legal infrastructures, as well as laboratories and research centers should be provided in order that plant innovations under the patent system could also be supported.

Keywords: new varieties of plant, patent, agriculture, Afghanistan

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Authors: Suheyla Demi̇rkol Orak

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The requirement of inclusive education is one of the utmost important results of both regular and irregular immigration. The matter in the case of Syrian immigrants is even worse than the other immigrants cases in world history since a massive immigration wave has affected all world countries' socio-economic profiles. When Syrians immigrated from Syria all over the world, they aimed to survive and left behind the war, but surviving is not optional occasion without handling language-related problems. Humans exist and preserve their existence with their language. That is a matter of concern for the integration of Syrians into the hosting countries. Many countries are proceeding with various programs to integrate Syrians into the majority groups by either assimilation or adaptation policies. Turkey has got the lion's share of the Syrian immigration apple, and in the same vein with this situation, its language education system should be analyzed severely in order to come up with a perfect match program for the integration of Syrians. It aimed to generate an inclusive education model for catalyzing the integration process of immigrant Syrian students into the majority socio-economic group via overcoming the language barrier. The identity of the immigrants is prioritized. The study follows a narrative literature review, which aims to review and critique relevant literature and offers a new conceptualization derived from the previous literature. The study derives a critical localized bilingual education model. As the outcome of the narrative literature review, a bilingual education model which prioritized the identity of the target community was designed. In the present study, main bilingual education programs and most of the countries' bilingual education policies were reviewed critically and suggestions were listed for the Syrian immigrants dominantly in Turkey and suggested to be benefitted by the other countries through localizing the practices.

Keywords: bi/multilingual education, sheltered education, immigrants, glocalization, submersion program, immersion program

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Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo

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At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices is used to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.

Keywords: critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis

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Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu

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Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.

Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing

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Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

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To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

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Authors: Angga Hidayah Ramadhan, Luciana Andrawina, M. Azani Hasibuan

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Data will be as a core of the decision if it has a good treatment or process, which is process that data into information, and information into knowledge to make a wisdom or decision. Today, many companies have not realize it include XYZ University Admission Directorate as executor of National Admission called Seleksi Masuk Bersama (SMB) that during the time, the workers only uses their feeling to make a decision. Whereas if it done, then that company can analyze the data to make a right decision to get a pin sales from student candidate or registrant that follow SMB as many as possible. Therefore, needs Knowledge Management System (KMS) with Geographic Information System (GIS) use 5C4C that can process that company data becomes more useful and can help make decisions. This information system can process data into information based on the pin sold data with 5C (Contextualized, Categorize, Calculation, Correction, Condensed) and convert information into knowledge with 4C (Comparing, Consequence, Connection, Conversation) that has been several steps until these data can be useful to make easier to take a decision or wisdom, resolve problems, communicate, and quicker to learn to the employees have not experience and also for ease of viewing/visualization based on spatial data that equipped with GIS functionality that can be used to indicate events in each province with indicator that facilitate in this system. The system also have a function to save the tacit on the system then to be proceed into explicit in expert system based on the problems that will be found from the consequences of information. With the system each team can make a decision with same ways, structured, and the important is based on the actual event/data.

Keywords: 5C4C, data, information, knowledge

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Authors: Burak Erkayman, Emin Gundogar, Hayrettin Evirgen, Murat Sarı

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With the increasing competition in recent years, airline companies tend to manage their operations aiming fewer losses in a robust manner. Airline operations are complex operations and have the necessity of being performed just in time and more knock-on relevant elements in the event of a disruption. In this study a knowledge based decision support system is suggested and software is developed. The developed software includes knowledge bases which are based on expert experience and government regulations, model bases and data bases. The results of the suggested approach are presented and improvable aspects of the approach are discussed.

Keywords: knowledge based systems, irregular operations, decision support systems, flight disruptions management

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Authors: Endrik Mifta Shaiful, Firman Riyudha

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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the world's deadliest diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) that infects white blood cells and cause a decline in the immune system. AIDS quickly became a world epidemic disease that affects almost all countries. Therefore, mathematical modeling approach to the spread of HIV and AIDS is needed to anticipate the spread of HIV and AIDS which are widespread. The purpose of this study is to determine the parameter estimation on mathematical models of HIV transmission and AIDS using cumulative data of people with HIV and AIDS each year in Indonesia. In this model, there are parameters of r ∈ [0,1) which is the effectiveness of the treatment in patients with HIV. If the value of r is close to 1, the number of people with HIV and AIDS will decline toward zero. The estimation results indicate when the value of r is close to unity, there will be a significant decline in HIV patients, whereas in AIDS patients constantly decreases towards zero.

Keywords: HIV, AIDS, parameter estimation, mathematical models

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Authors: Irene Carter, Roy Hanes, Judy MacDonald

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Considering that disability is universal and people with disabilities are part of all societies; that there is a connection between the disabled individual and the societal; and that it is society and social arrangements that disable people with impairments, contemporary disability discourse emphasizes the social model of disability to counter medical and rehabilitative models of disability. However, the social model does not go far enough in addressing the issues of oppression and inclusion. The authors indicate that the social model does not specifically or adequately denote the oppression of persons with disabilities, which is a central component of progressive social work practice with people with disabilities. The social model of disability does not go far enough in deconstructing disability and offering social workers, as well as people with disabilities a way of moving forward in terms of practice anchored in individual, familial and societal change. The social model of disability is expanded by incorporating principles of anti-oppression social work practice. Although the contextual analysis of the social model of disability is an important component there remains a need for social workers to provide service to individuals and their families, which will be illustrated through anti-oppressive practice (AOP). By applying an anti-oppressive model of practice to the above definitions, the authors not only deconstruct disability paradigms but illustrate how AOP offers a framework for social workers to engage with people with disabilities at the individual, familial and community levels of practice, promoting an emancipatory focus in working with people with disabilities. An anti- social- oppression social work model of disability connects the day-to-day hardships of people with disabilities to the direct consequence of oppression in the form of ableism. AOP theory finds many of its basic concepts within social-oppression theory and the social model of disability. It is often the case that practitioners, including social workers and psychologists, define people with disabilities’ as having or being a problem with the focus placed upon adjustment and coping. A case example will be used to illustrate how an AOP paradigm offers social work a more comprehensive and critical analysis and practice model for social work practice with and for people with disabilities than the traditional medical model, rehabilitative and social model approaches.

Keywords: anti-oppressive practice, disability, people with disabilities, social model of disability

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish

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Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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Authors: Hui Wei, Zheng Dong

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Object recognition has long been a challenging task in computer vision. Yet the human brain, with the ability to rapidly and accurately recognize visual stimuli, manages this task effortlessly. In the past decades, advances in neuroscience have revealed some neural mechanisms underlying visual processing. In this paper, we present a novel model inspired by the visual pathway in primate brains. This multi-layer neural network model imitates the hierarchical convergent processing mechanism in the visual pathway. We show that local image features generated by this model exhibit robust discrimination and even better generalization ability compared with some existing image descriptors. We also demonstrate the application of this model in an object recognition task on image data sets. The result provides strong support for the potential of this model.

Keywords: biological model, feature extraction, multi-layer neural network, object recognition

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Authors: Lei Hou, Xinli Du, Nikolaos Boulgouris

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A cochlear implant, referred to as a CI, is a small electronic device that can provide direct electrical stimulation to the auditory nerve. During cochlear implant surgery, atraumatic electrode array insertion is considered to be a crucial step. However, during implantation, the mechanical behaviour of an electrode array inside the cochlea is not known. The behaviour of an electrode array inside of the cochlea is hardly identified by regular methods. In this study, a CI electrode array capacitive sensor system is proposed. It is able to automatically determine the array state as a result of the capacitance variations. Instead of applying sensors to the electrode array, the capacitance information from the electrodes will be gathered and analysed. Results reveal that this sensing method is capable of recognising different states when fed into a pre-shaped model.

Keywords: cochlear implant, electrode, hearing preservation, insertion force, capacitive sensing

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Authors: Jong Woo Kim, Go Bong Choi, Sang Hwan Son, Dae Shik Kim, Jung Chul Suh, Jong Min Lee

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The Markov Decision Process (MDP) based methodology is implemented in order to establish the optimal schedule which minimizes the cost. Formulation of MDP problem is presented using the information about the current state of pipe, improvement cost, failure cost and pipe deterioration model. The objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming (DP) are modified due to the difficulty of implementing the conventional DP approaches. The optimal schedule derived from suggested model is compared to several policies via Monte Carlo simulation. Validity of the solution and improvement in computational time are proved.

Keywords: Markov decision processes, dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulation, periodic replacement, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Kristin Thooft

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— Increasing pressure to manage healthcare costs has resulted in shifting care towards ambulatory settings and is driving a focus on cost transparency. There are few nurse staffing to workload models developed for ambulatory settings, less for multi-specialty clinics. Of the existing models, few have been evaluated against outcomes to understand any impact. This evaluation took place after the AWARD model for nurse staffing to workload was implemented in a multi-specialty clinic at a regional healthcare system in the Midwest. The multi-specialty clinic houses 26 medical and surgical specialty practices. The AWARD model was implemented in two specialty practices in October 2020. Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome (SPO) model was used to evaluate outcomes based on changes to the structure and processes of care provided. The AWARD model defined and quantified the processes, recommended changes in the structure of day-to-day nurse staffing. Cost of care per patient visit, total visits, a total nurse performed visits used as structural and process measures, influencing the outcomes of cost of care and access to care. Independent t-tests were used to compare the difference in variables pre-and post-implementation. The SPO model was useful as an evaluation tool, providing a simple framework that is understood by a diverse care team. No statistically significant changes in the cost of care, total visits, or nurse visits were observed, but there were differences. Cost of care increased and access to care decreased. Two weeks into the post-implementation period, the multi-specialty clinic paused all non-critical patient visits due to a second surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinic nursing staff was re-allocated to support the inpatient areas. This negatively impacted the ability of the Nurse Manager to utilize the AWARD model to plan daily staffing fully. The SPO framework could be used for the ongoing assessment of nurse staffing performance. Additional variables could be measured, giving a complete picture of the impact of nurse staffing. Going forward, there must be a continued focus on the outcomes of care and the value of nursing

Keywords: ambulatory, clinic, evaluation, outcomes, staffing, staffing model, staffing to workload

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Authors: Gergely Horvath

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The study analyzes the special provisions of the highest level of national agricultural legislation in the Fundamental Law of Hungary (25 April 2011) with descriptive, analytic and comparative methods. The agriculturally relevant articles of the constitution are very important, because –in spite of their high level of abstraction– they can determine and serve the practice comprehensively and effectively. That is why the objective of the research is to interpret the concrete sentences and phrases in connection with agriculture compared with the methods of some other relevant constitutions (historical-grammatical interpretation). The major findings of the study focus on searching for the appropriate provisions and approach capable of solving the problems of sustainable food production. The real challenge agricultural law must face with in the future is protecting or conserving its background and subjects: the environment, the ecosystem services and all the 'roots' of food production. In effect, agricultural law is the legal aspect of the production of 'our daily bread' from farm to table. However, it also must guarantee the safe daily food for our children and for all our descendants. In connection with sustainability, this unique, value-oriented constitution of an agrarian country even deals with uncustomary questions in this level of legislation like GMOs (by banning the production of genetically modified crops). The starting point is that the principle of public good (principium boni communis) must be the leading notion of the norm, which is an idea partly outside the law. The public interest is reflected by the agricultural law mainly in the concept of public health (in connection with food security) and the security of supply with healthy food. The construed Article P claims the general protection of our natural resources as a requirement. The enumeration of the specific natural resources 'which all form part of the common national heritage' also means the conservation of the grounds of sustainable agriculture. The reference of the arable land represents the subfield of law of the protection of land (and soil conservation), that of the water resources represents the subfield of water protection, the reference of forests and the biological diversity visualize the specialty of nature conservation, which is an essential support for agrobiodiversity. The mentioned protected objects constituting the nation's common heritage metonymically melt with their protective regimes, strengthening them and forming constitutional references of law. This regimes also mean the protection of the natural foundations of the life of the living and also the future generations, in the name of intra- and intergenerational equity.

Keywords: agricultural law, constitutional values, natural resources, sustainability

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Authors: Heng Yang, Tao Luo, Yakun Zhang, Kai Wang, Wei Qin, Liang Xie, Ye Yan, Erwei Yin

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Recent years have seen that audio-visual recognition has shown great potential in a strong noise environment. The existing method of audio-visual recognition has explored methods with ResNet and feature fusion. However, on the one hand, ResNet always occupies a large amount of memory resources, restricting the application in engineering. On the other hand, the feature merging also brings some interferences in a high noise environment. In order to solve the problems, we proposed an effective framework with bidirectional distillation. At first, in consideration of the good performance in extracting of features, we chose the light model, Efficientnet as our extractor of spatial features. Secondly, self-distillation was applied to learn more information from raw data. Finally, we proposed a bidirectional distillation in decision-level fusion. In more detail, our experimental results are based on a multi-model dataset from 24 volunteers. Eventually, the lipreading accuracy of our framework was increased by 2.3% compared with existing systems, and our framework made progress in audio-visual fusion in a high noise environment compared with the system of audio recognition without visual.

Keywords: lipreading, audio-visual, Efficientnet, distillation

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Tae Bo Jeon

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Korean air force is undertaking a big project to replace prevailing hundreds of old air fighters such as F-4, F-5, KF-16 etc. The task is to develop and produce domestic fighters equipped with 2 complete-type engines each. A large number of engines, however, will be purchased as products from a foreign engine maker. In addition to the fighters themselves, secure the proper number of spare engines serves a significant role in maintaining combat readiness and effectively managing the national defense budget due to high cost. In this paper, we presented a model dynamically updating spare engine requirements. Currently, the military administration purchases all the fighters, engines, and spare engines at acquisition stage and does not have additional procurement processes during the life cycle, 30-40 years. With the assumption that procurement procedure during the operational stage is established, our model starts from the initial estimate of spare engine requirements based on limited information. The model then performs military missions and repair/maintenance works when necessary. During operation, detailed field information - aircraft repair and test, engine repair, planned maintenance, administration time, transportation pipeline between base, field, and depot etc., - should be considered for actual engine requirements. At the end of each year, the performance measure is recorded and proceeds to next year when it shows higher the threshold set. Otherwise, additional engine(s) will be bought and added to the current system. We repeat the process for the life cycle period and compare the results. The proposed model is seen to generate far better results appropriately adding spare engines thus avoiding possible undesirable situations. Our model may well be applied to future air force military operations.

Keywords: DMSMS, operational availability, METRIC, PRS

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Authors: Kayode Oshinubi, Brice Kammegne, Jacques Demongeot

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The use of mathematical tools like Partial Differential Equations and Ordinary Differential Equations have become very important to predict the evolution of a viral disease in a population in order to take preventive and curative measures. In December 2019, a novel variety of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China causing a severe and potentially fatal respiratory syndrome, i.e., COVID-19. Since then, it has become a pandemic declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 which has spread around the globe. A reaction-diffusion system is a mathematical model that describes the evolution of a phenomenon subjected to two processes: a reaction process in which different substances are transformed, and a diffusion process that causes a distribution in space. This article provides a mathematical study of the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Vaccinated population model of the COVID-19 pandemic by the bias of reaction-diffusion equations. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined using the Lyapunov function are considered and the endemic equilibrium point exists and is stable if it satisfies Routh–Hurwitz criteria. Also, adequate conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model have been proved. We showed the spatial distribution of the model compartments when the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$ and $\mathcal{R}_0 > 1$ and sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the most sensitive parameters in the proposed model. We demonstrate the model's effectiveness by performing numerical simulations. We investigate the impact of vaccination and the significance of spatial distribution parameters in the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that reducing contact with an infected person and increasing the proportion of susceptible people who receive high-efficacy vaccination will lessen the burden of COVID-19 in the population. To the public health policymakers, we offered a better understanding of the COVID-19 management.

Keywords: COVID-19, SEIRV epidemic model, reaction-diffusion equation, basic reproduction number, vaccination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Hossein Kabir, Mojtaba Sadeghi

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Finding the linear and nonlinear responses of a typical single-degree-of-freedom system (SDOF) is always being regarded as a time-consuming process. This study attempts to provide modifications in the renowned Newmark method in order to make it more time efficient than it used to be and make it more accurate by modifying the system in its own non-linear state. The efficacy of the presented method is demonstrated by assigning three base excitations such as Tabas 1978, El Centro 1940, and MEXICO CITY/SCT 1985 earthquakes to a SDOF system, that is, SDOF, to compute the strength reduction factor, yield pseudo acceleration, and ductility factor.

Keywords: single-degree-of-freedom system (SDOF), linear acceleration method, nonlinear excited system, equivalent displacement method, equivalent energy method

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Authors: Dalia Salem, Detlef Schulz

Abstract:

As Germany pursues its ambitious plan towards a power system based on renewable energy sources, the necessity to establish steady, robust microgrids becomes more evident. Inside the microgrid, there is at least one grid-forming inverter responsible for generating the coupling voltage and stabilizing the system frequency within the standardized accepted limits when the microgrid is forced to operate as a stand-alone power system. Grid-forming control for distributed inverters is required to enable steady control of a low-inertia power system. In this paper, a designed droop control technique is tested at the controller of an inverter as a component of a hardware test bed to understand the microgrid behavior in two modes of operation: i) grid-connected and ii) operating in islanding mode. This droop technique includes many current and voltage inner control loops, where the Q-V and P-f droop provide the required terminal output voltage and frequency. The technique is tested first in a simulation model of the inverter in MATLAB/SIMULINK, and the results are compared to the results of the hardware laboratory test. The results of this experiment illuminate the pivotal role of the grid-forming inverter in facilitating microgrid resilience during grid disconnection events and how microgrids could provide the functionality formerly provided by synchronous machinery, such as the black start process.

Keywords: microgrid, grid-forming inverters, droop-control, islanding-operation

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Authors: Aya Tanaka, Mariko Era, Manami Masuda, Yui Okuno, Takayoshi Kawahara, Takahide Kanyama, Hiroshi Morita

Abstract:

Objectives— Fungi and bacteria are present in a wide range of natural environments. They are breed in the foods such as vegetables and fruit, causing corruption and deterioration of these foods in some cases. Furthermore, some species of fungi and bacteria are known to cause food intoxication or allergic reactions in some individuals. To prevent fungal and bacterial contamination, various fungicides and bactericidal have been developed that inhibit fungal and bacterial growth. Fungicides and bactericides must show high antifungal and antibacterial activity, sustainable activity, and a high degree of safety. Therefore, we focused on the fatty acid salt which is the main component of soap. We focused on especially C10K and C12K. This study aimed to find the effectiveness of the fatty acid salt as antimicrobial agents for food safety. Materials and Methods— Cladosporium cladosporioides NBRC 30314, Penicillium pinophilum NBRC 6345, Aspergillus oryzae (Akita Konno store), Rhizopus oryzae NBRC 4716, Fusarium oxysporum NBRC 31631, Escherichia coli NBRC 3972, Bacillus subtilis NBRC 3335, Staphylococcus aureus NBRC 12732, Pseudomonas aenuginosa NBRC 13275 and Serratia marcescens NBRC 102204 were chosen as tested fungi and bacteria. Hartmannella vermiformis NBRC 50599 and Acanthamoeba castellanii NBRC 30010 were chosen as tested amoeba. Nine fatty acid salts including potassium caprate (C10K) and laurate (C12K) at 350 mM and pH 10.5 were used as antifungal activity. The spore suspension of each fungus (3.0×10⁴ spores/mL) or the bacterial suspension (3.0×10⁵ or 3.0×10⁶ or 3.0×10⁷ CFU/mL) was mixed with each of the fatty acid salts (final concentration of 175 mM). Samples were counted at 0, 10, 60, and 180 min by plating (100 µL) on potato dextrose agar or nutrient agar. Fungal and bacterial colonies were counted after incubation for 1 or 2 days at 30 °C. Results— C10K was antifungal activity of 4 log-unit incubated time for 10 min against fungi other than A. oryzae. C12K was antifungal activity of 4 log-unit incubated time for 10 min against fungi other than P. pinophilum and A. oryzae. C10K and C12K did not show high anti-yeast activity. C10K was antibacterial activity of 6 or 7 log-unit incubated time for 10 min against bacteria other than B. subtilis. C12K was antibacterial activity of 5 to 7 log-unit incubated time for 10 min against bacteria other than S. marcescens. C12K was anti-amoeba activity of 4 log-unit incubated time for 10 min against H. vermiformis. These results suggest C10K and C12K have potential in the field of food safety.

Keywords: food safety, microbes, antimicrobial, fatty acid salts

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Authors: Farhan Ali

Abstract:

Use of wastewater for growing vegetables has become a common practice around big cities. Wastewater contains organic material and inorganic elements essential for plant growth but also contain heavy metals, which may be lethal for animals and humans if their concentration increases than permissible limit. To monitor this situation, a survey was conducted to ascertain the addition of heavy metals into agricultural fields through wastewater irrigation and their translocation in to the edible parts of the vegetables. The study highlighted that there is a large accumulation of heavy metals in the soil, which is irrigated with industrial wastewater Laden and people consume vegetables grown in soil irrigated with sewage water to absorb a large amount of these metals. This accumulation of heavy metals in food cause possible health risks for the consumer. Regular monitoring of the levels of pathogens and heavy metals from the waste water drain which effluent are used for growing vegetables and other foodstuffs is essential to monitor excessive accumulation of these metals in the food chain.

Keywords: pathogens, wastewater, concentration, effluent

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

Abstract:

The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 455