Search results for: ANOVA score model

Authors: Peiming Li

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative blockchain-based approach to enhance the reliability and efficiency of federated learning systems. By integrating a decentralized oracle consensus mechanism into the federated learning framework, we address key challenges of data and model integrity. Our approach utilizes a network of redundant oracles, functioning as independent validators within an epoch-based training system in the federated learning model. In federated learning, data is decentralized, residing on various participants' devices. This scenario often leads to concerns about data integrity and model quality. Our solution employs blockchain technology to establish a transparent and tamper-proof environment, ensuring secure data sharing and aggregation. The decentralized oracles, a concept borrowed from blockchain systems, act as unbiased validators. They assess the contributions of each participant using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which is crucial for evaluating the consistency of participant inputs and safeguarding against model poisoning and malicious activities. Our methodology's distinct feature is its epoch-based training. An epoch here refers to a specific training phase where data is updated and assessed for quality and relevance. The redundant oracles work in concert to validate data updates during these epochs, enhancing the system's resilience to security threats and data corruption. The effectiveness of this system was tested using the Mnist dataset, a standard in machine learning for benchmarking. Results demonstrate that our blockchain-oriented federated learning approach significantly boosts system resilience, addressing the common challenges of federated environments. This paper aims to make these advanced concepts accessible, even to those with a limited background in blockchain or federated learning. We provide a foundational understanding of how blockchain technology can revolutionize data integrity in decentralized systems and explain the role of oracles in maintaining model accuracy and reliability.

Keywords: federated learning system, block chain, decentralized oracles, hidden markov model

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Authors: Mohammed Nasser Al-Suqri

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Former information-seeking models are proposed more than two decades ago. These already existed models were given prior to the evolution of digital information era and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Lack of current information seeking models within Library and Information Studies resulted in fewer advancements for teaching students about information-seeking behaviors, design of library tools and services. In order to better facilitate the aforementioned concerns, this study aims to propose state-of-the-art model while focusing on the information seeking behavior of library users in the Sultanate of Oman. This study aims for the development, designing and contextualizing the real-time user-centric information seeking model capable of enhancing information needs and information usage along with incorporating critical insights for the digital library practices. Another aim is to establish far-sighted and state-of-the-art frame of reference covering Artificial Intelligence (AI) while synthesizing digital resources and information for optimizing information-seeking behavior. The proposed study is empirically designed based on a mix-method process flow, technical surveys, in-depth interviews, focus groups evaluations and stakeholder investigations. The study data pool is consist of users and specialist LIS staff at 4 public libraries and 26 academic libraries in Oman. The designed research model is expected to facilitate LIS by assisting multi-dimensional insights with AI integration for redefining the information-seeking process, and developing a technology rich model.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, information seeking, information behavior, information seeking models, libraries, Sultanate of Oman

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Dujrudee Chinwong, Chanida Prompantakorn, Ubonphan Chaichana, Surarong Chinwong

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Objective: Understanding the university students’ perceptions on smoking caused lung cancer based on the Health Belief Model should help health care providers in assisting them to quit smoking. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the University students’ health belief in smoking behaviors caused lung cancer, which based on the Health Belief Model. Methods: Data were collected from voluntary participants using a self-administered questionnaire. Participants were students studying at a University in northern Thailand who were current smokers; they were selected using snowball sampling. Results: Of 361 students, 84% were males; 78% smoked not more than 10 cigarettes a day; 68% intended to quit smoking. Our findings, based on the health belief model, showed that 1) perceived susceptibility: participants strongly believed that if they did not stop smoking, they were at high risk of lung cancer (88%); 2) perceived severity: they strongly believed that they had a high chance of death from lung cancer if they continued smoking (84%); 3) perceived benefits: they strongly believed that quitting smoking could reduce the chance of developing lung cancer; 4) perceived barriers of quitting smoking: they strongly believed in the difficulty of quitting smoking because it needed a high effort and strong intention (69%); 5) perceived self-efficacy: however, they strongly believed that they can quit smoking right away if they had a strong intention to quit smoking (70%); 6) cues to action: they strongly believed in the support of parents (85%) and lovers (78%) in helping them to quit smoking. Further, they believed that limitation on smoking area in the University and smoking cessation services provided by the University can assist them to quit smoking. Conclusion: The Health Belief Model helps us to understand students’ smoking behaviors caused lung cancer. This could lead to designing a smoking cessation program to assist students to quit smoking.

Keywords: health belief model, lung cancer, smoking, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Ch. Surawut, D. Sukawat

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In order to utilize results from global climate models, dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques have been developed. For dynamical downscaling, usually a limited area numerical model is used, with associated high computational cost. This research proposes dynamic equation for specific space-time regional climate downscaling from the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) for Southeast Asia. The equation is for surface air temperature. These equations provide downscaling values of surface air temperature at any specific location and time without running a regional climate model. In the proposed equations, surface air temperature is approximated from ground temperature, sensible heat flux and 2m wind speed. Results from the application of the equation show that the errors from the proposed equations are less than the errors for direct interpolation from EdGCM.

Keywords: dynamic equation, downscaling, inverse distance, weight interpolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Sheldon McCall, Miao Yu, Liyun Gong, Shigang Yue, Stefanos Kollias

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Falls are a significant health concern for older adults globally, and prompt identification is critical to providing necessary healthcare support. Our study proposes a new fall detection method using computer vision based on modern deep learning techniques. Our approach involves training a trans- former model on a large 2D pose dataset for general action recognition, followed by transfer learning. Specifically, we freeze the first few layers of the trained transformer model and train only the last two layers for fall detection. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms both classical machine learning and deep learning approaches in fall/non-fall classification. Overall, our study suggests that our proposed methodology could be a valuable tool for identifying falls.

Keywords: healthcare, fall detection, transformer, transfer learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Faith-Michael E. Uzoka, Boluwaji A. Akinnuwesi, Taiwo Amoo, Flora Aladi, Stephen Fashoto, Moses Olaniyan, Joseph Osuji

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The overarching aim of this study is to develop a soft-computing system for the differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. These conditions are of concern to health bodies, physicians, and the community at large because of their mortality rates, and difficulties in early diagnosis due to the fact that they present with symptoms that overlap, and thus become ‘confusable’. We report on the first phase of our study, which focuses on the development of a fuzzy cognitive map model for early differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. We used malaria as a case disease to show the effectiveness of the FCM technology as an aid to the medical practitioner in the diagnosis of tropical diseases. Our model takes cognizance of manifested symptoms and other non-clinical factors that could contribute to symptoms manifestations. Our model showed 85% accuracy in diagnosis, as against the physicians’ initial hypothesis, which stood at 55% accuracy. It is expected that the next stage of our study will provide a multi-disease, multi-symptom model that also improves efficiency by utilizing a decision support filter that works on an algorithm, which mimics the physician’s diagnosis process.

Keywords: medical diagnosis, tropical diseases, fuzzy cognitive map, decision support filters, malaria differential diagnosis

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Authors: Seydou Sinde

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The aims of this paper are to formulate mathematical expressions that can be used to estimate the standpipe pressure (SPP). The developed formulas take into account the main factors that, directly or indirectly, affect the behavior of SPP values. Fluid rheology and well hydraulics are some of these essential factors. Mud Plastic viscosity, yield point, flow power, consistency index, flow rate, drillstring, and annular geometries are represented by the frictional pressure (Pf), which is one of the input independent parameters and is calculated, in this paper, using Herschel-Bulkley rheological model. Other input independent parameters include the rate of penetration (ROP), applied load or weight on the bit (WOB), bit revolutions per minute (RPM), bit torque (TRQ), and hole inclination and direction coupled in the hole curvature or dogleg (DL). The technique of repeating parameters and Buckingham PI theorem are used to reduce the number of the input independent parameters into the dimensionless revolutions per minute (RPMd), the dimensionless torque (TRQd), and the dogleg, which is already in the dimensionless form of radians. Multivariable linear and polynomial regression technique using PTC Mathcad Prime 4.0 is used to analyze and determine the exact relationships between the dependent parameter, which is SPP, and the remaining three dimensionless groups. Three models proved sufficiently satisfactory to estimate the standpipe pressure: multivariable linear regression model 1 containing three regression coefficients for vertical wells; multivariable linear regression model 2 containing four regression coefficients for deviated wells; and multivariable polynomial quadratic regression model containing six regression coefficients for both vertical and deviated wells. Although that the linear regression model 2 (with four coefficients) is relatively more complex and contains an additional term over the linear regression model 1 (with three coefficients), the former did not really add significant improvements to the later except for some minor values. Thus, the effect of the hole curvature or dogleg is insignificant and can be omitted from the input independent parameters without significant losses of accuracy. The polynomial quadratic regression model is considered the most accurate model due to its relatively higher accuracy for most of the cases. Data of nine wells from the Middle East were used to run the developed models with satisfactory results provided by all of them, even if the multivariable polynomial quadratic regression model gave the best and most accurate results. Development of these models is useful not only to monitor and predict, with accuracy, the values of SPP but also to early control and check for the integrity of the well hydraulics as well as to take the corrective actions should any unexpected problems appear, such as pipe washouts, jet plugging, excessive mud losses, fluid gains, kicks, etc.

Keywords: standpipe, pressure, hydraulics, nondimensionalization, parameters, regression

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Authors: Enrique Castañeda, Tomas Hernadez, Mario Ulloa

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Recent studies related to submarine pipelines under high pressure, temperature and buried, forces us to make bibliographical and documentary research to make us of references applicable to our problem. This paper presents an experimental methodology to the implementation of results obtained in a scale model, bibliography soil mechanics and finite element simulation. The model consists of a tank of 0.60 x 0.90 x 0.60 basis equipped high side windows, tires and digital hardware devices for measuring different variables to be applied to the model, where the mechanical properties of the soil are determined, simulation of drag a pipeline buried in a non-cohesive seafloor of the Gulf of Mexico, estimate the failure surface and application of each of the variables for the determination of mechanical elements.

Keywords: static friction coefficient, maximum passive force resistant soil, normal, tangential stress

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Authors: Bruna P. De Souza, Ricardo C. De Almeida

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In some cities in the State of Parana – Brazil and in other countries atmospheric bromeliads (Tillandsia spp - Bromeliaceae) are considered weeds in trees, electric power lines, satellite dishes and other artificial supports. In this study, a numerical model was developed to simulate the seed dispersal of the Tillandsia recurvata species by wind with the objective of evaluating seeds displacement in the city of Ponta Grossa – PR, Brazil, since it is considered that the region is already infested. The model simulates the dispersal of each individual seed integrating parameters from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and the local wind, simulated by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model for the 2012 to 2015 period. The dispersal model also incorporates the approximate number of bromeliads and source height data collected from most infested electric power lines. The seeds terminal velocity, which is an important input data but was not available in the literature, was measured by an experiment with fifty-one seeds of Tillandsia recurvata. Wind is the main dispersal agent acting on plumed seeds whereas atmospheric turbulence is a determinant factor to transport the seeds to distances beyond 200 meters as well as to introduce random variability in the seed dispersal process. Such variability was added to the model through the application of an Inverse Fast Fourier Transform to wind velocity components energy spectra based on boundary-layer meteorology theory and estimated from micrometeorological parameters produced by the WRF model. Seasonal and annual wind means were obtained from the surface wind data simulated by WRF for Ponta Grossa. The mean wind direction is assumed to be the most probable direction of bromeliad seed trajectory. Moreover, the atmospheric turbulence effect and dispersal distances were analyzed in order to identify likely regions of infestation around Ponta Grossa urban area. It is important to mention that this model could be applied to any species and local as long as seed’s biological data and meteorological data for the region of interest are available.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, bromeliad, numerical model, seed dispersal, terminal velocity, wind

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Authors: Sook Ching Yee, Angela Siew Hoong Lee

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Big data technologies have become a trend to exploit business opportunities and provide valuable business insights through the analysis of big data. However, there are still many organizations that have yet to adopt big data technologies especially small and medium organizations (SME). This study uses the technology acceptance model (TAM) to look into several constructs in the TAM and other additional constructs which are positive affect, negative affect, organizational factor and motivational factor. The conceptual model proposed in the study will be tested on the relationship and influence of positive affect, negative affect, organizational factor and motivational factor towards the intention to use big data technologies to produce an outcome. Empirical research is used in this study by conducting a survey to collect data.

Keywords: big data technologies, motivational factor, negative affect, organizational factor, positive affect, technology acceptance model (TAM)

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Authors: Ekaterina M. Myasnikova, Andrey A. Makashov, Alexander V. Spirov

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First manifestation of a segmentation pattern in the early Drosophila development is the formation of expression domains (along with the main embryo axis) of genes belonging to the trunk gene class. Highly variable expression of genes from gap family in early Drosophila embryo is strongly reduced by the start of gastrulation due to the gene cross-regulation. The dynamics of gene expression is described by a gene circuit model for a system of four gap genes. It is shown that for the formation of a steep and stationary border by the model it is necessary that there existed a nucleus (modeling point) in which the gene expression level is constant in time and hence is described by a stationary equation. All the rest genes expressed in this nucleus are in a dynamic equilibrium. The mechanism of border formation associated with the existence of a stationary nucleus is also confirmed by the experiment. An important advantage of this approach is that properties of the system in a stationary nucleus are described by algebraic equations and can be easily handled analytically. Thus we explicitly characterize the cross-regulation properties necessary for the robustness and formulate the conditions providing this effect through the properties of the initial input data. It is shown that our formally derived conditions are satisfied for the previously published model solutions.

Keywords: drosophila, gap genes, reaction-diffusion model, robustness

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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Authors: Nirali Shukla, Neel Shah

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The World Bank Institute (WBI) is undertaking a review of government interventions aimed at facilitating sustainable investment in public private partnerships (PPPs) in various under developed countries. The study presents best practice for applying financial model to make PPPs financially viable. The lessons presented here, if properly implemented, can help countries use limited funds to attract more private investment, get more infrastructure built and, as a result, achieve greater economic growth. The four countries Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and India in total develop an average of nearly US$50 billion in PPPs per year. There are a range of policies and institutional arrangements governments use to provide subsidies to PPPs. For example, some countries have created dedicated agencies, or ‘funds’, capitalized with money from the national budget to manage and allocate subsidies. Other countries have established well-defined policies for appropriating subsidies on an ad hoc basis through an annual budget process. In this context, subsidies are direct fiscal contributions or grants paid by the government to a project when revenues from user fees are insufficient to cover all capital and operating costs while still providing private investors with a reasonable rate of return. Without subsidies, some infrastructure projects that would provide economic or social gains, but are not financially viable, would go undeveloped. But the Financial model of BOLT (PPP) model described in this study suggests that it is most feasible option rather than going for subsidy schemes for making infrastructure projects financially viable. The major advantage for implementing this model is the government money is saved and can be used for other projects as well as the private investors are getting better rate of return than subsidized schemes.

Keywords: PPP, BOLT, subsidy schemes, financial model

Procedia PDF Downloads 744

Authors: Daniel Rosero, Johan S. Arana, Sebastian Arango, Alejandro Cruz, Isabel Gomez-Gutierrez, Peter Thomson

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Santiago de Cali is located in the southwestern Colombia in a high seismic hazard zone. About 50% of the city is on the banks of the Cauca River, which is the second most important hydric affluent in the country and whose alluvial deposits contain potentially liquefiable sands. Among the methods used to study a site's liquefaction potential is the finite elements method which use constitutive models to simulate the soil response for different load types. Among the different constitutive models, the Modified UBCSand stands out to study the seismic behavior of sands, and especially the liquefaction phenomenon. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of a potentially liquefiable sand of Santiago de Cali is studied by cyclic triaxial and CPTu tests. Subsequently, the behavior of the sand is simulated using the Modified UBCSand constitutive model, whose parameters are calibrated using the results of cyclic triaxial and CPTu tests. The above with the aim of analyze the constitutive model applicability for studying the geotechnical problems associated to liquefaction in the city.

Keywords: constitutive model, cyclic triaxial test, dynamic behavior, liquefiable sand, modified ubcsand

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Mohammadreza Sedighi, Mohammad Said Saidi, Hesamoddin Salarian

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A numerical study has been performed to investigate the effect of using different turbulent models on natural convection flow field and temperature distributions in partially heated square cavity compare to benchmark. The temperature of the right vertical wall is lower than that of heater while other walls are insulated. The commercial CFD codes are used to model. Standard k-w model provided good agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: Buoyancy, Cavity, CFD, Heat Transfer, Natural Convection, Turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Niloufar Ghoreishi, Ali Nekouzadeh

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The stability of the flight during maneuvering and in response to probable perturbations is one of the most essential features of an aircraft that should be analyzed and designed for. In this study, we derived the non-linear governing equations of aircraft dynamics during the climb/descend phase and simulated a model aircraft. The corresponding force and moment dimensionless coefficients of the model and their variations with elevator angle and other relevant aerodynamic parameters were measured experimentally. The short-period mode and phugoid mode response were simulated by solving the governing equations numerically and then compared with the desired stability parameters for the particular level, category, and class of the aircraft model. To meet the target stability, a controller was designed and used. This resulted in significant improvement in the stability parameters of the flight.

Keywords: flight stability, phugoid mode, short period mode, climb phase, damping coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Ayliana Dharmawan, Heng Yong Sheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Tan Thai Lian

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To facilitate discharge planning, doctors are presently required to assign an Estimated Discharge Date (EDD) for each patient admitted to the hospital. This assignment of the EDD is largely based on the doctor’s judgment. This can be difficult for cases which are complex or relatively new to the doctor. It is hypothesized that a data-driven approach would be able to facilitate the doctors to make accurate estimations of the discharge date. Making use of routinely collected data on inpatient discharges between January 2013 and May 2016, a predictive model was developed using machine learning techniques to predict the Length of Stay (and hence the EDD) of inpatients, at the point of admission. The predictive performance of the model was compared to that of the clinicians using accuracy measures. Overall, the best performing model was found to be able to predict EDD with an accuracy improvement in Average Squared Error (ASE) by -38% as compared to the first EDD determined by the present method. It was found that important predictors of the EDD include the provisional diagnosis code, patient’s age, attending doctor at admission, medical specialty at admission, accommodation type, and the mean length of stay of the patient in the past year. The predictive model can be used as a tool to accurately predict the EDD.

Keywords: inpatient, estimated discharge date, EDD, prediction, data-driven

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: D. S. Zhuravkova, A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, I. Y. Kalugina, N. Y. Lysov, A.V. Orlov

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Investigation of the discharges from the artificial charged water aerosol clouds in presence of the arrays of the model hydrometeors could help to receive the new data about the peculiarities of the return stroke formation between the thundercloud and the ground when the large volumes of the hail particles participate in the lightning discharge initiation and propagation stimulation. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the negative or positive polarity with the potential up to one million volts have been used. Hail has been simulated by the group of the conductive model hydrometeors of the different form. Parameters of the impulse current of the main stage of the discharge between the artificial positively and negatively charged water aerosol clouds and the ground in presence of the model hydrometeors array and of its corresponding electromagnetic radiation have been determined. It was established that the parameters of the array of the model hydrometeors influence on the parameters of the main stage of the discharge between the artificial thundercloud cell and the ground. The maximal values of the main stage current impulse parameters and the electromagnetic radiation registered by the plate antennas have been found for the array of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form for the negatively charged aerosol cloud and for the array of the hydrometeors of the plate rhombus form for the positively charged aerosol cloud, correspondingly. It was found that parameters of the main stage of the discharge between the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and the ground in presence of the model hydrometeor array of the different considered forms depend on the polarity of the artificial charged aerosol cloud. In average, for all forms of the investigated model hydrometeors arrays, the values of the amplitude and the current rise of the main stage impulse current and the amplitude of the corresponding electromagnetic radiation for the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the positive polarity were in 1.1-1.9 times higher than for the charged aerosol cloud of the negative polarity. Thus, the received results could indicate to the possible more important role of the big volumes of the large hail arrays in the thundercloud on the parameters of the return stroke for the positive lightning.

Keywords: main stage of discharge, hydrometeor form, lightning parameters, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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Authors: Pratch Kittipongpattana, Thongchai Fongsamootr

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This research aimed to study the influences of a soot blowing operation and geometrical variables to the stress characteristic of water wall tubes located in soot blowing areas which caused the boilers of Mae Moh power plant to lose their generation hour. The research method is divided into 2 parts (a) measuring the strain on water wall tubes by using 3-element rosette strain gages orientation during a full capacity plant operation and in periods of soot blowing operations (b) creating a finite element model in order to calculate stresses on tubes and validating the model by using experimental data in a steady state plant operation. Then, the geometrical variables in the model were changed to study stresses on the tubes. The results revealed that the stress was not affected by the soot blowing process and the finite element model gave the results 1.24% errors from the experiment. The geometrical variables influenced the stress, with the most optimum tubes design in this research reduced the average stress from the present design 31.28%.

Keywords: boiler water wall tube, finite element, stress analysis, strain gage rosette

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Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

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Authors: Geday Elias, Montaigne Etienne, Padilla Martine, Tollossa Degefa

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Smallholder farmers’ participation in agricultural value chain identified as a pathway to get out of poverty trap in Ethiopia. The smallholder dairy activities have a huge potential in poverty reduction through enhancing income, achieving food and nutritional security in the country. However, much less is known about the effects of smallholder’s participation in milk value chain on household food security and nutrition. This paper therefore, aims at evaluating the effects of smallholders’ participation in milk value chain on household food security taking in to account the four pillars of food security measurements (availability, access, utilization and stability). Using a semi-structured interview, a cross sectional farm household data collected from a randomly selected sample of 333 households (170 in Amhara and 163 in Oromia regions).Binary logit and propensity score matching( PSM) models are employed to examine the mechanisms through which smallholder’s participation in the milk value chain affects household food security where crop production, per capita calorie intakes, diet diversity score, and food insecurity access scale are used to measure food availability, access, utilization and stability respectively. Our findings reveal from 333 households, only 34.5% of smallholder farmers are participated in the milk value chain. Limited access to inputs and services, limited access to inputs markets and high transaction costs are key constraints for smallholders’ limited access to the milk value chain. To estimate the true average participation effects of milk value chain for participated households, the outcome variables (food security) of farm households who participated in milk value chain are compared with the outcome variables if the farm households had not participated. The PSM analysis reveals smallholder’s participation in milk value chain has a significant positive effect on household income, food security and nutrition. Smallholder farmers who are participated in milk chain are better by 15 quintals crops production and 73 percent of per capita calorie intakes in food availability and access respectively than smallholder farmers who are not participated in the market. Similarly, the participated households are better in dietary quality by 112 percents than non-participated households. Finally, smallholders’ who are participated in milk value chain are better in reducing household vulnerability to food insecurity by an average of 130 percent than non participated households. The results also shows income earned from milk value chain participation contributed to reduce capital’s constraints of the participated households’ by higher farm income and total household income by 5164 ETB and 14265 ETB respectively. This study therefore, confirms the potential role of smallholders’ participation in food value chain to get out of poverty trap through improving rural household income, food security and nutrition. Therefore, identified the determinants of smallholder participation in milk value chain and the participation effects on food security in the study areas are worth considering as a positive knock for policymakers and development agents to tackle the poverty trap in the study area in particular and in the country in general.

Keywords: effects, food security and nutrition, milk, participation, smallholders, value chain

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Authors: Sura Al-Khafaji, Phil Purnell

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Measurement of the ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) is an important tool in diagnostic examination of concrete. In this method piezoelectric transducers are normally held in direct contact with the concrete surface. The current study aims to test the hypothesis that a preferential coupling effect might exist i.e. that the speed of sound measured depends on the couplant used. In this study, different coupling media of varying acoustic impedance were placed between the transducers and concrete samples made with constant aggregate content but with different compressive strengths. The preliminary results show that using coupling materials (both solid and a range of liquid substances) has an effect on the pulse velocity measured in a given concrete. The effect varies depending on the material used. The UPV measurements with solid coupling were higher than these from the liquid coupling at all strength levels. The tests using couplants generally recorded lower UPV values than the conventional test, except when carbon fiber composite was used, which retuned higher values. Analysis of variances (ANOVA) was performed to confirm that there are statistically significant differences between the measurements recorded using a conventional system and a coupled system.

Keywords: compressive strength, coupling effect, statistical analysis, ultrasonic

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Authors: Subhankar Karmakar, Madhan Kumar Vasudevan, Manivannan Muniyandi

Abstract:

Thermal Grill Illusion (TGI) elicits a strong and often painful sensation of burn when interlacing warm and cold stimuli that are individually non-painful, excites thermoreceptors beneath the skin. Among several theories of TGI, the “disinhibition” theory is the most widely accepted in the literature. According to this theory, TGI is the result of the disinhibition or unmasking of the pain-sensitive HPC (Heat-Pinch-Cold) nerve fibers due to the inhibition of cold-sensitive nerve fibers that are responsible for masking HPC nerve fibers. Although researchers focused on understanding TGI throughexperiments and models, none of them investigated the prediction of TGI pain intensity through a computational model. Furthermore, the comparison of psychophysically perceived TGI intensity with neurophysiological models has not yet been studied. The prediction of pain intensity through a computational model of TGI can help inoptimizing thermal displays and understanding pathological conditions related to temperature perception. The current studyfocuses on developing a computational model to predict the intensity of TGI pain and experimentally observe the perceived TGI pain. The computational model is developed based on the disinhibition theory and by utilizing the existing popular models of warm and cold receptors in the skin. The model aims to predict the neuronal activity of the HPC nerve fibers. With a temperature-controlled thermal grill setup, fifteen participants (ten males and five females) were presented with five temperature differences between warm and cold grills (each repeated three times). All the participants rated the perceived TGI pain sensation on a scale of one to ten. For the range of temperature differences, the experimentally observed perceived intensity of TGI is compared with the neuronal activity of pain-sensitive HPC nerve fibers. The simulation results show a monotonically increasing relationship between the temperature differences and the neuronal activity of the HPC nerve fibers. Moreover, a similar monotonically increasing relationship is experimentally observed between temperature differences and the perceived TGI intensity. This shows the potential comparison of TGI pain intensity observed through the experimental study with the neuronal activity predicted through the model. The proposed model intends to bridge the theoretical understanding of the TGI and the experimental results obtained through psychophysics. Further studies in pain perception are needed to develop a more accurate version of the current model.

Keywords: thermal grill Illusion, computational modelling, simulation, psychophysics, haptics

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Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

Abstract:

Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, artificial neural networks

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Authors: A. Ngunga, M. K. Soviti, S. Nakin

Abstract:

South Africa is one of the developing countries rich in estuary ecosystem. Previous studies have identified many impacts of land use activities on the pollution status of the estuaries. These land use activity and related practices are often blamed for the many pollution problems affecting the estuaries. For example, the estuarine ecosystems on a global scale are experiencing vast transformations from anthropogenic influences; Buffalo River Estuary is one of the influenced estuaries whereby the sources of pollution are unknown. These problems consequently lead to the degradation of the estuaries. The aim of the research was to establish the factors that have the potential to impact pollution status of Buffalo river estuary. Study focuses on Identifying and mapping land use activities along Buffalo River Estuary. Questionnaire survey, structured interviews, direct observation, GPS survey and ArcGIS mapping were the methods used for data collection in the area, and results were analyzed and presented by ANOVA and Microsoft Excel statistical methods. The results showed that harbour is the main source of pollution, in Buffalo River Estuary, through Ballast water discharge. Therefore that requires more concern for protecting and cleaning the estuary.

Keywords: estuary, land-use activities, pollution, mapping, water pollution

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Authors: Tonislav Ivanov, Oleksii Nedashkivskyi, Denis Babeshko, Vadim Pinskiy, Matthew Putman

Abstract:

Training a machine learning model for object detection that generalizes well is known to benefit from a training dataset with diverse examples. However, training datasets usually contain many repeats of common examples of a class and lack rarely seen examples. This is due to the process commonly used during human annotation where a person would proceed sequentially through a list of images labeling a sufficiently high total number of examples. Instead, the method presented involves an active process where, after the initial labeling of several images is completed, the next subset of images for labeling is selected by an algorithm. This process of algorithmic image selection and manual labeling continues in an iterative fashion. The algorithm used for the image selection is a deep learning algorithm, based on the U-shaped architecture, which quantifies the presence of unseen data in each image in order to find images that contain the most novel examples. Moreover, the location of the unseen data in each image is highlighted, aiding the labeler in spotting these examples. Experiments performed using semiconductor wafer data show that labeling a subset of the data, curated by this algorithm, resulted in a model with a better performance than a model produced from sequentially labeling the same amount of data. Also, similar performance is achieved compared to a model trained on exhaustive labeling of the whole dataset. Overall, the proposed approach results in a dataset that has a diverse set of examples per class as well as more balanced classes, which proves beneficial when training a deep learning model.

Keywords: computer vision, deep learning, object detection, semiconductor

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Authors: Zuoji Huang, Haiming Qian, Chunlin Wang, Jinyan Sun, Nan Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, the strategy to extract double road edge lines from acquired road stripe image was explored. The workflow is as follows: the road stripes are acquired by probabilistic boosting tree algorithm and morphological algorithm immediately, and road centerlines are detected by thinning algorithm, so the initial road edge lines can be acquired along the road centerlines. Then we refine the results with big variation of local curvature of centerlines. Specifically, the energy function of edge line is constructed by gradient feature and spectral information, and Dijkstra algorithm is used to optimize the initial road edge lines. The Snake model is constructed to solve the fracture problem of intersection, and the discrete dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve the model. After that, we could get the final road network. Experiment results show that the strategy proposed in this paper can be used to extract the continuous and smooth road edge lines from high-resolution remote sensing images with an accuracy of 88% in our study area.

Keywords: road edge lines extraction, energy function, intersection fracture, Snake model

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

Abstract:

It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood, type-I error

Procedia PDF Downloads 133