Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Hakiki Kheira, Belhamiti Omar

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In this paper, we propose a new compartmental fractional order model for the simulation of epidemic obesity dynamics. Using the Legendre wavelet method combined with the decoupling and quasi-linearization technique, we demonstrate the validity and applicability of our model. We also present some fractional differential illustrative examples to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the method. The fractional derivative is described in the Caputo sense.

Keywords: Caputo derivative, epidemiology, Legendre wavelet method, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Azin Karami, Bahareh Heydari

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There is a difference between national sovereignty ( national security guarantee) and human rights standards (human security guarantee). Under the pretext of providing security for the majority, Governments violate human rights standards and lead to populism. This paper illustrates despite the human rights standards of non-citizens, they mostly confront different practical and social realities. (a large gap between the reality and the truth). This paper has focused on one of vulnerable irregular non-citizens immigrants from Mediterranean . In addition, it has considered challenges of the basic and primary human rights standards of this group. It shows how government policies affect the flow of irregular immigration. This paper is based upon UN data about Mediterranean immigrants and polls answered by 68 people who intended to migrate from Mediterranean (28 female and 40 male people, the average age of 30 to 40). The model is supposed to be a convenient one to present objective, real evidence of irregular immigrants and discusses the challenges that this group of immigrants confront them .This paper shows clear concept of immigrants.

Keywords: human rights, human security, national sovereignty, irregular immigrants

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Authors: Muktadir Ahmed, Sayed Akhlakur Rahaman, Mridha Shihab Mahmud

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The parents of Bangladesh have scarcity of knowledge about children play. Most of them do not know which toys are perfect for their children. Appropriate toys for playing is one of the most significant parts of children development from early age, besides for proper amelioration of children’s mental growth and brain capacities, toys play an emergent role. So selection of proper toy for children is very important. A toy forms the sagacity of a child and instructs child’s attitude. In this era of globalization to keep pace with everything children toys are also going forward but in a deleterious way. Maximum toys are now battery-driven and for this psychological developments of children are not increasing in effective way; therefore, pedagogical toys are proper selection. This type of toy inspires the wisdom and helps a child to reveal himself/herself. Pedagogical toys are attractive to children and help to stimulate their imagination. Pedagogical toys help them to build senso-motoric skills and hand-eye coordination. In this study, some children divided into two groups, one group played with pedagogical toys and another group played with conventional toys. This study is going to exhibit the difference between pedagogical and conventional toys for kids. The main aim of this study is to reveal the potency of pedagogical toy for children. To implement this study two Daycare Centers (DCC) Projapoti 1 & 3 of Mymensingh city had chosen. Every DCC having 1.5-6 years old children but for this study 2-5 years old children had been selected. The children of Projapoti-1 played with pedagogical toys and the children of Projapoti-2 played with conventional toys. After 6 weeks of study, the children of Projapoti-1 proved that they have improved their skills more than those children of Projapoti-3 who were playing with conventional toys. The children of Projapoti-1 have developed their touch sensation, muscular movement, imitation power, hand-eye coordination whereas the children of Projapoti-3 have only developed their muscular movement fairly (while running after battery driven toys) which is not better than those children of Projapoti-1. They cannot imitate like the children of Projapoti-1. They just had fun from playing virtual games, battery driven toys, watching cartoons etc. Actually, it is not possible to develop a child’s brain without pedagogical toy.

Keywords: brain development, mental growth, pedagogical toys, play for children

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Authors: Ghasem Sharifi, Hamed Shahmohamadi Ousaloo, Milad Azimi, Mehran Mirshams

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The ever-increasing use of satellites demands a search for increasingly accurate and reliable pointing systems. Reaction wheels are rotating devices used commonly for the attitude control of the spacecraft since provide a wide range of torque magnitude and high reliability. The numerical modeling of this device can significantly enhance the accuracy of the satellite control in space. Modeling the wheel rotation in the presence of the various frictions is one of the critical parts of this approach. This paper presents a Dynamic Model Control of a Reaction Wheel (DMCR) in the current control mode. In current-mode, the required current is delivered to the coils in order to achieve the desired torque. During this research, all the friction parameters as viscous and coulomb, motor coefficient, resistance and voltage constant are identified. In order to model identification of a reaction wheel, numerous varying current commands apply on the particular wheel to verify the estimated model. All the parameters of DMCR are identified by classical Levenberg-Marquardt (CLM) optimization method. The experimental results demonstrate that the developed model has an appropriate precise and can be used in the satellite control simulation.

Keywords: experimental modeling, friction parameters, model identification, reaction wheel

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Authors: Mohammad Julhas Sujan, Md. Ferdous Alam

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Maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) holds one of the prime focuses in Bangladesh’s national healthcare system. To save the lives of mothers and children, knowing the stock of MNCH medicines in different healthcare facilities and when to replenish them are essential. A robust information system not only facilitates efficient management of the essential MNCH medicines but also helps effective allocation of scarce resources. In Bangladesh, Supply chain management of the 25-essential life-saving medicines are currently tracked and monitored via an electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS). Our aim was to conduct a cross-sectional study with a year (2020) worth of data from 24 districts of Bangladesh to evaluate how eLMIS is helping the Government and other stakeholders in efficient supply chain management. Data were collected from 4711 healthcare facilities ranging from primary to secondary levels within a district. About 90% (4143) are community clinics which are considered primary health care facilities in Bangladesh. After eLMIS implementation, the average reporting rate across the districts has been increased (> 97%). The month of stock (MOS) of zinc is an average 6 months compared to Inj. Magnesium Sulphate which will take 2.5 years to consume according to the current average monthly consumption (AMC). Due to first approaching expiry, Tab. Misoprostol, 7.1% Chlorhexidine and Inj. Oxytocin may become unusable. Moreover, Inj. Oxytocin is temperature sensitive and may reduce its efficacy if it is stocked for a longer period. In contrast, Zinc should be sufficiently stocked to prevent sporadic stockouts. To understand how data are collected, transmitted, processed, and aggregated for MNCH medicines in a faster and timely manner, an electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS) is necessary. We recommend the use of such a system in developing countries like Bangladesh for efficient supply chain management of essential MNCH medicines.

Keywords: adaption, eLMIS, MNCH, live-saving medicines

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Authors: Junjie Zhong, Kai Hong, Lei Wang

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Passage Retrieval (PR) plays an important role in many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Traditional efficient retrieval models relying on exact term-matching, such as TF-IDF or BM25, have nowadays been exceeded by pre-trained language models which match by semantics. Though they gain effectiveness, deep language models often require large memory as well as time cost. To tackle the trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness in PR, this paper proposes Graph Passage Retriever (GraphPR), a graph-based model inspired by the development of graph learning techniques. Different from existing works, GraphPR is end-to-end and integrates both term-matching information and semantics. GraphPR constructs a passage-level graph from BM25 retrieval results and trains a GCN-like model on the graph with graph-based objectives. Passages were regarded as nodes in the constructed graph and were embedded in dense vectors. PR can then be implemented using embeddings and a fast vector-similarity search. Experiments on a variety of real-world retrieval datasets show that the proposed model outperforms related models in several evaluation metrics (e.g., mean reciprocal rank, accuracy, F1-scores) while maintaining a relatively low query latency and memory usage.

Keywords: efficiency, effectiveness, graph learning, language model, passage retrieval, term-matching model

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Authors: Quy Dang Nguyen, Reza Nakhaie Jazar

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The paper investigates vibration dynamics of tire-road separation for a quarter-car model; this separation model is developed to be close to the real situation considering the tire is able to separate from the ground plane. A set of piecewise linear mathematical models is developed and matches the in-contact and no-contact states to be considered as mother models for further investigations. The bound dynamics are numerically simulated in the time response and phase portraits. The separation analysis may determine which values of suspension parameters can delay and avoid the no-contact phenomenon, which results in improving ride comfort and eliminating the potentially dangerous oscillation. Finally, model verification is carried out in the MSC-ADAMS environment.

Keywords: quarter-car vibrations, tire-road separation, separation analysis, separation dynamics, ride comfort, ADAMS validation

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Authors: Petra Buzkova, Milos Kopa

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Reliability of the credit default swap market had been questioned repeatedly during the EMU debt crisis. The article examines whether this development influenced sovereign EMU CDS prices in general. We regress the CDS market price on a model risk neutral CDS price obtained from an adopted reduced form valuation model in the 2009-2013 period. We look for a break point in the single-equation and multi-equation econometric models in order to show the changes in relations between CDS market and model prices. Our results differ according to the risk profile of a country. We find that in the case of riskier countries, the relationship between the market and model price changed when market participants started to question the ability of CDS contracts to protect their buyers. Specifically, it weakened after the change. In the case of less risky countries, the change happened earlier and the effect of a weakened relationship is not observed.

Keywords: chow stability test, credit default swap, debt crisis, reduced form valuation model, seemingly unrelated regression

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Authors: Hany Mohamed Abdu, Mohamed Hassan Gadallah, El-Giushi Mokhtar, Yehia Mahmoud Ismail

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Laser beam cutting is one nontraditional machining process. This paper optimizes the parameters of Laser beam cutting machining parameters of Stainless steel (316L) by considering the effect of input parameters viz. power, oxygen pressure, frequency and cutting speed. Statistical design of experiments are carried in three different levels and process responses such as 'Average kerf taper (Ta)' and 'Surface Roughness (Ra)' are measured accordingly. A quadratic mathematical model (RSM) for each of the responses is developed as a function of the process parameters. Responses predicted by the models (as per Taguchi’s L27 OA) are employed to search for an optimal parametric combination to achieve desired yield of the process. RSM models are developed for mean responses, S/N ratio, and standard deviation of responses. Optimization models are formulated as single objective problem subject to process constraints. Models are formulated based on Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) using MATLAB environment. Optimum solutions are compared with Taguchi Methodology results.

Keywords: optimization, laser cutting, robust design, kerf width, Taguchi method, RSM and DOE

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Authors: Tennah Safia, Azzag Naouelle, Derdour Salima, Hafsi Fella, Laouadi Mourad, Laamari Abdalouahab, Ghalmi Farida, Kafidi Nacerredine

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Currently, goat farming is widely practiced among the rural population of Algeria. Although milk yield of goats is low (110 liters per goat and per year on average), this milk partly ensures the feeding of small children and provides raw milk, curd, and fermented milk to the whole family. In addition, given its investment cost, which is ten times lower than that of a cow, this level of production is still of interest. This interest is reinforced by the qualities of goat's milk, highly sought after for its nutritional value superior to that of cow's milk. In the same way, its aptitude for the transformation, in particular in quality cheeses, is very sought after. The objective of this study is to give the situation of goat milk production in rural areas of Algeria and to establish a classification of goat breeds according to their production potential. For this, a survey was carried out with goat farmers in Algerian steppe. Three indigenous breeds were encountered in this study: the breed Arabia, Mozabite, and Mekatia; Arabia being the most dominant. The Mekatia breed and the Mozabite breed appear to have higher production and milking abilities than other local breeds. They are therefore indicated to play the role of local dairy breeds par excellence. The other breed that could be improved milk performance is the Arabia breed. There, however, the milk performance of this breed is low. However, in order to increase milk production, uncontrolled crosses with imported breeds (mainly Saanen and Alpine) were carried out. The third population that can be included in the category for dairy production is the dairy breed group of imported origin. There are farms in Algeria composed of Alpine and Saanen breeds born locally. Improved milk performance of local goats, Crusader population, and dairy breeds of imported origin could be done by selection. For this, it is necessary to set up a milk control to detect the best animals. This control could be carried out among interested farmers in each large goat breeding area. In conclusion, sustained efforts must be made to enable the sustainable development of the goat sector in Algeria. It will, therefore, be necessary to deepen the reflection on a national strategy to valorize goat's milk, taking into account the specificities of the environment, the genetic biodiversity, and the eating habits of the Algerian consumer.

Keywords: goat, milk, Algeria, biodiversity

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Authors: Howard Gomwe, Eunice Seekoe

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There is arguably dearth of literature regarding body physical fitness and body composition amongst primary schools in South Africa. For this reason, the study is aimed at investigating and accessing how body composition relates to physical fitness amongst learners between 9 – 14 years of age in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. In order to achieve this, a school-based cross-sectional survey was carried out among 876 primary school learners aged 9 to14 years. Body composition indicators were measured and/or calculated, whilst physical fitness was evaluated by a 20 m shuttle run, push-ups, sit and reach as well as sit-ups, according to the EUROFIT fitness standards. Out of 876 participants, a total of 870 were retained. Of these, 351 (40.34%) were boys and 519 (59.66%) were girls. The average age of learners was 11.04 ± 1.50 years, with boys having a importantly (p = 0.002) higher average age (M = 11.24; SD = 1.51 years) as compared to that of girls (M = 10.91; SD = 1.48 years). The non-parametric Spearman Rho correlation coefficients revealed several significant and negative relationships between body composition measurements with physical fitness characteristics, which were stronger in girls than in boys. The findings advocate for policy makers and responsible authorities to initiate the development of policies and interventions targeted at encouraging physical activity and healthy promotion among primary school learners in South Africa, especially in girls.

Keywords: BMI, body composition, physical fitness, children

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Authors: Weiwen Li, Hao Huang, Chengmao You, Jianji Liao, Lei Wang, Lina An

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Zooplankton are a central issue in the ecology which makes a great contribution to maintaining the balance of an ecosystem. It is critical in promoting the material cycle and energy flow within the ecosystems. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the relationships between the density (individuals per m³) of zooplankton and other variables in West Daya Bay. All data used in this analysis (the survey month, survey station (longitude and latitude), the depth of the water column, the superficial concentration of chlorophyll a, the benthonic concentration of chlorophyll a, the number of zooplankton species and the number of zooplankton species) were collected through monthly scientific surveys during January to December 2016. GLM model (generalized linear model) was used to choose the significant variables’ impact on the density of zooplankton, and the GAM was employed to analyze the relationship between the density of zooplankton and the significant variables. The results showed that the density of zooplankton increased with an increase of the benthonic concentration of chlorophyll a, but decreased with a decrease in the depth of the water column. Both high numbers of zooplankton species and the overall total number of zooplankton individuals led to a higher density of zooplankton.

Keywords: density, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, the West Daya Bay, zooplankton

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Authors: Tomohiko Utsuki

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Currently, brain resuscitation becomes increasingly important due to revising various clinical guidelines pertinent to emergency care. In brain resuscitation, the control of brain temperature (BT), intracranial pressure (ICP), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) is required for stabilizing physiological state of brain, and is described as the essential treatment points in many guidelines of disorder and/or disease such as brain injury, stroke, and encephalopathy. Thus, an integrated control system of BT, ICP, and CBF will greatly contribute to alleviating the burden on medical staff and improving treatment effect in brain resuscitation. In order to develop such a control system, models related to BT, ICP, and CBF are required for control simulation, because trial and error experiments using patients are not ethically allowed. A static model of cerebral blood circulation from intracranial arteries and vertebral artery to jugular veins has already constructed and verified. However, it is impossible to represent the pooling of blood in blood vessels, which is one cause of cerebral hypertension in this model. And, it is also impossible to represent the pulsing motion of blood vessels caused by blood pressure change which can have an affect on the change of cerebral tissue pressure. Thus, a dynamic model of cerebral blood circulation is constructed in consideration of the elasticity of the blood vessel and the inertia of the blood vessel wall. The constructed dynamic model was numerically analyzed using the normal data, in which each arterial blood flow in cerebral blood circulation, the distribution of blood pressure in the Circle of Willis, and the change of blood pressure along blood flow were calculated for verifying against physiological knowledge. As the result, because each calculated numerical value falling within the generally known normal range, this model has no problem in representing at least the normal physiological state of the brain. It is the next task to verify the accuracy of the present model in the case of disease or disorder. Currently, the construction of a migration model of extracellular fluid and a model of heat transfer in cerebral tissue are in progress for making them parts of an integrated model of brain physiological state, which is necessary for developing an future integrated control system of BT, ICP and CBF. The present model is applicable to constructing the integrated model representing at least the normal condition of brain physiological state by uniting with such models.

Keywords: dynamic model, cerebral blood circulation, brain resuscitation, automatic control

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Authors: Mostafa Sefidgar, Sohrab Zendehboudi, Hossein Bazmara, Madjid Soltani

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Based on findings from clinical applications, most drug treatments fail to eliminate malignant tumors completely even though drug delivery through systemic administration may inhibit their growth. Therefore, better understanding of tumor formation is crucial in developing more effective therapeutics. For this purpose, nowadays, solid tumor modeling and simulation results are used to predict how therapeutic drugs are transported to tumor cells by blood flow through capillaries and tissues. A solid tumor is investigated as a porous media for fluid flow simulation. Most of the studies use Darcy model for porous media. In Darcy model, the fluid friction is neglected and a few simplified assumptions are implemented. In this study, the effect of these assumptions is studied by considering Brinkman model. A multi scale mathematical method which calculates fluid flow to a solid tumor is used in this study to investigate how neglecting fluid friction affects the solid tumor simulation. In this work, the mathematical model in our previous studies is developed by considering two model of momentum equation for porous media: Darcy and Brinkman. The mathematical method involves processes such as fluid flow through solid tumor as porous media, extravasation of blood flow from vessels, blood flow through vessels and solute diffusion, convective transport in extracellular matrix. The sprouting angiogenesis model is used for generating capillary network and then fluid flow governing equations are implemented to calculate blood flow through the tumor-induced capillary network. Finally, the two models of porous media are used for modeling fluid flow in normal and tumor tissues in three different shapes of tumors. Simulations of interstitial fluid transport in a solid tumor demonstrate that the simplifications used in Darcy model affect the interstitial velocity and Brinkman model predicts a lower value for interstitial velocity than the values that Darcy model does.

Keywords: solid tumor, porous media, Darcy model, Brinkman model, drug delivery

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Authors: Anthony Albanese

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While much of the literature concerning Max Weber’s concept of charisma has addressed the importance of the follower’s recognition of and devotion to the charismatic leader, very little has been said about the processes that lead to the development of follower charisma. This article examines this largely overlooked aspect of the concept, as doing so (1) exacts the dynamics behind charisma’s transferability by moving beyond follower-centric models that focus on the recognition of the leader and toward one that emphasizes the follower’s generation and exhibition of charisma, (2) bridges a crucial gap between the rather wanting “losers of modernization” thesis and the social actor’s proclivity to produce stories and self-cast in said stories, (3) presents authoritarian dispositions as a reaction to the weakening effects everydayness have on charisma, and (4) complicates Weber’s formulation by reassessing the role of continually demonstrable mastery. To illustrate these dynamics, one should turn to the January 6th Capitol attack in the United States.

Keywords: max weber, extremism, right-wing populism, charisma

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Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

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Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

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Authors: John Vergara, Giuseppe Palmese

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Fundamental studies aimed at elucidating the key contributions to corrosion performance are needed to make progress toward effective and environmentally compliant corrosion control. Epoxy/amine systems are typically employed as barrier coatings for corrosion control. However, the hardening agents used for coating applications can be very complex, making fundamental studies of water and oxygen permeability challenging to carry out. Creating model building blocks for epoxy/amine coatings is the first step in carrying out these studies. We will demonstrate the synthesis and characterization of model amine building blocks from saturated fatty acids and simple amines such as diethylenetriamine (DETA) and Bis(3-aminopropyl)amine. The structure-property relationship of thermosets made from these model amines and Diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A (DGBEA) will be discussed.

Keywords: building block, amine, synthesis, characterization

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Yalong Jiang, Zheru Chi

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In this paper, we study the factors which determine the capacity of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model and propose the ways to evaluate and adjust the capacity of a CNN model for best matching to a specific pattern recognition task. Firstly, a scheme is proposed to adjust the number of independent functional units within a CNN model to make it be better fitted to a task. Secondly, the number of independent functional units in the capsule network is adjusted to fit it to the training dataset. Thirdly, a method based on Bayesian GAN is proposed to enrich the variances in the current dataset to increase its complexity. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC 2010 Person Part dataset and the MNIST dataset show that, in both conventional CNN models and capsule networks, the number of independent functional units is an important factor that determines the capacity of a network model. By adjusting the number of functional units, the capacity of a model can better match the complexity of a dataset.

Keywords: CNN, convolutional neural network, capsule network, capacity optimization, character recognition, data augmentation, semantic segmentation

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Authors: Yuzuru Mitsui, Takashi Ikegami

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The exponents of Taylor’s law in deterministic chaotic systems are computed, and their meanings are intensively discussed. Taylor’s law is the scaling relationship between the mean and variance (in both space and time) of population abundance, and this law is known to hold in a variety of ecological time series. The exponents found in the temporal Taylor’s law are different from those of the spatial Taylor’s law. The temporal Taylor’s law is calculated on the time series from the same locations (or the same initial states) of different temporal phases. However, with the spatial Taylor’s law, the mean and variance are calculated from the same temporal phase sampled from different places. Most previous studies were done with stochastic models, but we computed the temporal and spatial Taylor’s law in deterministic systems. The temporal Taylor’s law evaluated using the same initial state, and the spatial Taylor’s law was evaluated using the ensemble average and variance. There were two main discoveries from this work. First, it is often stated that deterministic systems tend to have the value two for Taylor’s exponent. However, most of the calculated exponents here were not two. Second, we investigated the relationships between chaotic features measured by the Lyapunov exponent, the correlation dimension, and other indexes with Taylor’s exponents. No strong correlations were found; however, there is some relationship in the same model, but with different parameter values, and we will discuss the meaning of those results at the end of this paper.

Keywords: chaos, density effect, population dynamics, Taylor’s law

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Authors: Xiuguo Zhao, He Li, Alireza Yazdani, Xiaoning Zheng, Xinxi Xu

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Wound infected poses a serious threat to the surgery on the patient during the process of surgery. Understanding the bacteria-carrying particles (BCPs) transportation and deposition in the open surgical wound model play essential role in protecting wound against being infected. Therefore BCPs transportation and deposition in the surgical wound model were investigated using force-coupling method (FCM) based computational fluid dynamics. The BCPs deposition in the wound was strongly associated with BCPs diameter and concentration. The results showed that the rise on the BCPs deposition was increasing not only with the increase of BCPs diameters but also with the increase of the BCPs concentration. BCPs deposition morphology was impacted by the combination of size distribution, airflow patterns and model geometry. The deposition morphology exhibited the characteristic with BCPs deposition on the sidewall in wound model and no BCPs deposition on the bottom of the wound model mainly because the airflow movement in one direction from up to down and then side created by laminar system constructing airflow patterns and then made BCPs hard deposit in the bottom of the wound model due to wound geometry limit. It was also observed that inertial impact becomes a main mechanism of the BCPs deposition. This work may contribute to next study in BCPs deposition limit, as well as wound infected estimation in surgical-site infections.

Keywords: BCPs deposition, computational fluid dynamics, force-coupling method (FCM), numerical simulation, open surgical wound model

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Authors: Maryam Gallab, Hafida Bouloiz, Youness Chater, Mohamed Tkiouat

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The aim of this paper is to present a model based on multi-agent systems in order to manage the maintenance activities and to ensure the reliability and availability of machines just with the required resources (operators, tools). The interest of the simulation is to solve the complexity of the system and to find results without cost or wasting time. An implementation of the model is carried out on the AnyLogic platform to display the defined performance indicators.

Keywords: maintenance, complexity, simulation, multi-agent systems, AnyLogic platform

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Authors: Assad Maalouf, Lunjin Lu, James Lynott

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We design and implement a precise model of string operations using finite state machine transformers and state transformers to approximate the values string variables can take throughout the execution of the program.We use our model to analyze Android program string variables. Our experimental results show that our string analysis is very efficient at detecting the contextual effect of string operations on the string variables. Our model proved to be very useful when it came to verifying statements about the string variables of the program.

Keywords: abstract interpretation, android, static analysis, string analysis

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Authors: Maryam Saeidi, Ehsan Motamedian, Seyed Abbas Shojaosadati

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Zymomonas mobilis is known as an example of the uncoupled growth phenomenon. This microorganism also has a unique metabolism that degrades glucose by the Entner–Doudoroff (ED) pathway. In this paper, a genome-scale metabolic model including 434 genes, 757 reactions and 691 metabolites was reconstructed to simulate uncoupled growth and study its effect on flux distribution in the central metabolism. The model properly predicted that ATPase was activated in experimental growth yields of Z. mobilis. Flux distribution obtained from model indicates that the major carbon flux passed through ED pathway that resulted in the production of ethanol. Small amounts of carbon source were entered into pentose phosphate pathway and TCA cycle to produce biomass precursors. Predicted flux distribution was in good agreement with experimental data. The model results also indicated that Z. mobilis metabolism is able to produce biomass with maximum growth yield of 123.7 g (mol glucose)-1 if ATP synthase is coupled with growth and produces 82 mmol ATP gDCW-1h-1. Coupling the growth and energy reduced ethanol secretion and changed the flux distribution to produce biomass precursors.

Keywords: genome-scale metabolic model, Zymomonas mobilis, uncoupled growth, flux distribution, ATP dissipation

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Authors: George-Anokwuru Chioma Chidinma Bernadette

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This paper investigated the effect of trade liberalization on domestic private investment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. To achieve this objective, secondary data on domestic private investment, trade openness, exchange rate and interest rate were sourced from the statistical bulletin of Nigeria’s apex bank. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test revealed the existence of long run association among the variables. The results revealed that trade openness and exchange rate have positive and insignificant relationship with domestic private investment both in the long and short runs. At the same time, interest rate has negative relationship with domestic private investment both in the long and short runs. Therefore, it was concluded that there is no significant relationship between trade openness, exchange rate, interest rate and domestic private investment in Nigeria during the period of study. Based on the findings, the study recommended that government should formulate trade policies that will encourage the growth of domestic private investment in Nigeria. To achieve this, government should ensure consistency in trade policies and at the same time strengthen the existing policies to build investors’ confidence. Also, government should make available an investment-friendly environment, as well as monitor real sector operators to ensure that foreign exchange allocations are not diverted. Government should increase capital investment in education, housing, transportation, agriculture, health, power, road construction, national defense, among others that will help the various sectors of the economy to function very well thereby making the business environment friendly thereby enhancing the growth and development of the country.

Keywords: trade openness, domestic private investment, ARDL, exchange rate

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Authors: Kulvinder Singh Mann

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The usability and simulation of information systems, known as Hospital Information System (HIS), Radiology Information System (RIS), and Picture Archiving, Communication System, for electronic medical records has shown a good impact for actors in the hospital. The objective is to help and make their work easier; such as for a nurse or administration staff to record the medical records of the patient, and for a patient to check their bill transparently. However, several limitations still exists on such area regarding the type of data being stored in the system, ability for data transfer, storage and protocols to support communication between medical devices and digital images. This paper reports the simulation result of integrating several systems to cope with those limitations by using the Modality Worklist and DICOM standard. It succeeds in documenting the reason of that failure so future research will gain better understanding and be able to integrate those systems.

Keywords: HIS, RIS, PACS, modality worklist, DICOM, digital images

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Authors: Audu Aly Fada, Adejoh Apeh Matthew

Abstract:

This research assesses the effects of social conflicts on tourism products in Plateau State. It was specifically set out to find out the major causes of social conflicts in Jos, evaluate the effects of social conflicts on the influx of tourists to Hill station hotel Jos, and the impact on revenue generation of the hotel. To achieve these objectives research questions were formulated and a sample of 30 hotel staff was selected as the respondents. Data collected were organized and analyzed using tables, percentages and mean statistics. It was found that the hospitality and tourism industry was adversely affected. The crisis brought about a decline in the number of tourist arrivals, increase in cancelled bookings, a decrease in the average length of stay of tourists and the average room occupancy. Peace is the best friend of travel and tourism, while war and insecurity are among its worst enemies. It is recommended that all stakeholders involved in tourism administration should device safer environment that supports continued patronage by providing modern security apparatus. In the same spirit, government as the main stake-holder in security provision should do more than paying lip service to guarantee security and safety of lives and properties.

Keywords: social conflict, crisis, security, tourism development

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Mohd Asrul Affedi, Nyi Nyi Naing

Abstract:

Overdispersion is present in count data, and basically when a phenomenon happened, a Negative Binomial (NB) is commonly used to replace a standard Poisson model. Analysis of count data event, such as mortality cases basically Poisson regression model is appropriate. Hence, the model is not appropriate when existing a zero values. The zero-inflated negative binomial model is appropriate. In this article, we modelled the mortality cases as a dependent variable by age categorical. The objective of this study to determine existing overdispersion in mortality data of AIDS co-infection patients in Kelantan.

Keywords: negative binomial death rate, overdispersion, zero-inflation negative binomial death rate, AIDS

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of real life data set.

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood

Procedia PDF Downloads 490

Authors: Hossein Arzani, Masoud Jafari Shalamzari, Z. Arzani

Abstract:

This paper follows FAO model of suitability analysis. Influential factors affecting extensive grazing were determined and converted into a model. Taleghan rangelands were examined for common types of grazing animals as an example. Advantages and limitations were elicited. All range ecosystems’ components affect range suitability but due to the time and money restrictions, the most important and feasible elements were investigated. From which three sub-models including water accessibility, forage production and erosion sensitivity were considered. Suitable areas in four levels of suitability were calculated using GIS. This suitability modeling approach was adopted due to its simplicity and the minimal time that is required for transforming and analyzing the data sets. Managers could be benefited from the model to devise the measures more wisely to cope with the limitations and enhance the rangelands health and condition.

Keywords: range suitability, land-use, extensive grazing, modeling, land evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 331