Search results for: small series assembly
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7622

Search results for: small series assembly

7322 A Hybrid Adomian Decomposition Method in the Solution of Logistic Abelian Ordinary Differential and Its Comparism with Some Standard Numerical Scheme

Authors: F. J. Adeyeye, D. Eni, K. M. Okedoye

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Hybrid of Adomian decomposition method (ADM). This is the substitution of a One-step method of Taylor’s series approximation of orders I and II, into the nonlinear part of Adomian decomposition method resulting in a convergent series scheme. This scheme is applied to solve some Logistic problems represented as Abelian differential equation and the results are compared with the actual solution and Runge-kutta of order IV in order to ascertain the accuracy and efficiency of the scheme. The findings shows that the scheme is efficient enough to solve logistic problems considered in this paper.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition method, nonlinear part, one-step method, Taylor series approximation, hybrid of Adomian polynomial, logistic problem, Malthusian parameter, Verhulst Model

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7321 Structure and Magnetic Properties of M-Type Sr-Hexaferrite with Ca, La Substitutions

Authors: Eun-Soo Lim, Young-Min Kang

Abstract:

M-type Sr-hexaferrite (SrFe₁₂O₁₉) have been studied during the past decades because it is the most utilized materials in permanent magnets due to their low price, outstanding chemical stability, and appropriate hard magnetic properties. Many attempts have been made to improve the intrinsic magnetic properties of M-type Sr-hexaferrites (SrM), such as by improving the saturation magnetization (MS) and crystalline anisotropy by cation substitution. It is well proved that the Ca-La-Co substitutions are one of the most successful approaches, which lead to a significant enhancement in the crystalline anisotropy without reducing MS, and thus the Ca-La-Co-doped SrM have been commercialized in high-grade magnet products. In this research, the effect of respective doping of Ca and La into the SrM lattices were studied with assumptions that these elements could substitute both of Fe and Sr sites. The hexaferrite samples of stoichiometric SrFe₁₂O₁₉ (SrM) and the Ca substituted SrM with formulae of Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) and SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4), and also La substituted SrM of Sr₁₋ₓLaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) and SrFe₁₂₋ₓLaₓOₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) were prepared by conventional solid state reaction processes. X-ray diffraction (XRD) with a Cu Kα radiation source (λ=0.154056 nm) was used for phase analysis. Microstructural observation was conducted with a field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). M-H measurements were performed using a vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) at 300 K. Almost pure M-type phase could be obtained in the all series of hexaferrites calcined at > 1250 ºC. Small amount of Fe₂O₃ phases were detected in the XRD patterns of Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) and Sr₁₋ₓLaₓFe₁₂Oₐ (x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) samples. Also, small amount of unidentified secondary phases without the Fe₂O₃ phase were found in the samples of SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ (x = 0.4) and SrFe₁₂₋ₓLaₓOₐ (x = 0.3, 0.4). Although the Ca substitution (x) into SrM structure did not exhibit a clear tendency in the cell parameter change in both series of samples, Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ and SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ , the cell volume slightly decreased with doping of Ca in the Sr₁₋ₓCaₓFe₁₂Oₐ samples and increased in the SrFe₁₂₋ₓCaₓOₐ samples. Considering relative ion sizes between Sr²⁺ (0.113 nm), Ca²⁺ (0.099 nm), Fe³⁺ (0.064 nm), these results imply that the Ca substitutes both of Sr and Fe in the SrM. A clear tendency of cell parameter change was observed in case of La substitution into Sr site of SrM ( Sr₁₋ₓLaₓFe₁₂Oₐ); the cell volume decreased with increase of x. It is owing to the similar but smaller ion size of La³⁺ (0.106 nm) than that of Sr²⁺. In case of SrFe₁₂₋ₓLaₓOₐ, the cell volume first decreased at x = 0.1 and then remained almost constant with increase of x from 0.2 to 0.4. These results mean that La only substitutes Sr site in the SrM structure. Besides, the microstructure and magnetic properties of these samples, and correlation between them will be revealed.

Keywords: M-type hexaferrite, substitution, cell parameter, magnetic properties

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7320 Business Continuity Opportunities in the Cloud a Small to Medium Business Perspective

Authors: Donald Zullick, Cihan Varol

Abstract:

This research paper begins with a look at current work in business continuity as it relates to the cloud and small to medium business (SMB). While cloud services are an emerging paradigm that is quickly making an impact on business, there has been no substantive research applied to SMB. Seeing this lapse, we have taken a fusion of continuity and cloud research with application to the SMB market. It is an initial reflection with base framework guidelines as a starting point for implementation. In this approach, our research ties together existing work and fill the gap with an SMB outlook.

Keywords: business continuity, cloud services, medium size business, risk assessment, small business

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7319 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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7318 A Small-Scale Flexible Test Bench for the Investigation of Fertigation Strategies in Soilless Culture

Authors: Giacomo Barbieri

Abstract:

In soilless culture, the management of the nutrient solution is the most important aspect for crop growing. Fertigation dose, frequency and nutrient concentration must be planned with the objective of reaching an optimal crop growth by limiting the utilized resources and the associated costs. The definition of efficient fertigation strategies is a complex problem since fertigation requirements vary on the basis of different factors, and crops are sensitive to small variations on fertigation parameters. To the best of author knowledge, a small-scale test bench that is flexible for both nutrient solution preparation and precise irrigation is currently missing, limiting the investigations in standard practices for soilless culture. Starting from the analysis of the state of the art, this paper proposes a small-scale system that is potentially able to concurrently test different fertigation strategies. The system will be designed and implemented throughout a three year project started on August 2018. However, due to the importance of the topic within current challenges as food security and climate change, this work is spread considering that may inspire other universities and organizations.

Keywords: soilless culture, fertigation, test bench, small-scale, automation

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7317 Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalization Admissions, and Death Cases Based on Wastewater Sars-COV-2 Surveillance Using Copula Time Series Model

Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

Abstract:

Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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7316 Analysis of Exponential Nonuniform Transmission Line Parameters

Authors: Mounir Belattar

Abstract:

In this paper the Analysis of voltage waves that propagate along a lossless exponential nonuniform line is presented. For this analysis the parameters of this line are assumed to be varying function of the distance x along the line from the source end. The approach is based on the tow-port networks cascading presentation to derive the ABDC parameters of transmission using Picard-Carson Method which is a powerful method in getting a power series solution for distributed network because it is easy to calculate poles and zeros and solves differential equations such as telegrapher equations by an iterative sequence. So the impedance, admittance voltage and current along the line are expanded as a Taylor series in x/l where l is the total length of the line to obtain at the end, the main transmission line parameters such as voltage response and transmission and reflexion coefficients represented by scattering parameters in frequency domain.

Keywords: ABCD parameters, characteristic impedance exponential nonuniform transmission line, Picard-Carson's method, S parameters, Taylor's series

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7315 Application of Stochastic Models to Annual Extreme Streamflow Data

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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7314 Evaluate the Effect of Teaching Small Scale Bussiness and Entrepreneurship on Graduates Unemployment in Nigeria: A Case Study of Anambra and Enugu State, South East Nigeria

Authors: Erinma Chibuzo Nwandu

Abstract:

Graduates unemployment has risen astronomically in spite of the emphasis on teaching of small scale business and Entrepreneurship in schools. This study sets out to evaluate the effect of teaching small scale business and Entrepreneurship on graduates’ unemployment in Nigeria. This study adopted the survey research design. Thus the nature of data for this study is primary, sourced by the use of a questionnaire administered to a sample of two thousand and sixty-five (2065) respondents drawn from groups of graduates who are employed, unemployed and self-employed in South East Nigeria. Simple percentages, Chi-square and regression analysis were used to derive useful and meaningful information and test the hypotheses respectively. Findings from the study suggest that Nigeria graduates are ill prepared to embark on small-scale business and entrepreneurship after graduation, and that teaching of small scale business and entrepreneurship in Nigeria tertiary institutions is ineffective on graduate unemployment reduction. Findings also suggest that while a lot of graduates agreed that they have taken a class(s) on small scale or entrepreneurship, they received more theoretical teachings than practical, more so while teachings on small scale business or entrepreneurship motivated graduates to think of self-employment, most of them cannot do a good business plan and hence could not benefit from some kind of Government assisted program for small-scale business and bank loan for the sake of small scale business. Thus, so many graduates are not interested in small scale business or entrepreneurship development as a result of lack of startup capital. The study thus recommends that course content and teaching method of entrepreneurship education needs to be reviewed and re-structured to constitute more practical teachings than theoretical teachings. Also, graduates should be exposed to seminar /workshop for self-employment at least once every semester. There should be practical teaching and practice of developing a business plan that will be viable to attract government or private sponsorship as well for it to be viable to attract financing from financing institutions. Government should provide a fund such as venture capital financing arrangement to empower business startups in Nigeria by graduates’.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, small scale business, startup capital, unemployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
7313 Visualization of PM₂.₅ Time Series and Correlation Analysis of Cities in Bangladesh

Authors: Asif Zaman, Moinul Islam Zaber, Amin Ahsan Ali

Abstract:

In recent years of industrialization, the South Asian countries are being affected by air pollution due to a severe increase in fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅). Among them, Bangladesh is one of the most polluting countries. In this paper, statistical analyses were conducted on the time series of PM₂.₅ from various districts in Bangladesh, mostly around Dhaka city. Research has been conducted on the dynamic interactions and relationships between PM₂.₅ concentrations in different zones. The study is conducted toward understanding the characteristics of PM₂.₅, such as spatial-temporal characterization, correlation of other contributors behind air pollution such as human activities, driving factors and environmental casualties. Clustering on the data gave an insight on the districts groups based on their AQI frequency as representative districts. Seasonality analysis on hourly and monthly frequency found higher concentration of fine particles in nighttime and winter season, respectively. Cross correlation analysis discovered a phenomenon of correlations among cities based on time-lagged series of air particle readings and visualization framework is developed for observing interaction in PM₂.₅ concentrations between cities. Significant time-lagged correlations were discovered between the PM₂.₅ time series in different city groups throughout the country by cross correlation analysis. Additionally, seasonal heatmaps depict that the pooled series correlations are less significant in warmer months, and among cities of greater geographic distance as well as time lag magnitude and direction of the best shifted correlated particulate matter time series among districts change seasonally. The geographic map visualization demonstrates spatial behaviour of air pollution among districts around Dhaka city and the significant effect of wind direction as the vital actor on correlated shifted time series. The visualization framework has multipurpose usage from gathering insight of general and seasonal air quality of Bangladesh to determining the pathway of regional transportation of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality, particles, cross correlation, seasonality

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7312 Musculoskeletal Disorders among Employees of an Assembly Industrial Workshop: Biomechanical Constrain’s Semi-Quantitative Analysis

Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Haithem Kalel, Salma Kammoun

Abstract:

Background: During recent decades, mechanical and electrical industrial sector has greatly expanded with a significant employability potential. However, this sector faces the increasing prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders with heavy consequences associated with direct and indirect costs. Objective: The current intervention was motivated by large musculoskeletal upper limbs and back disorders frequency among the operators of an assembly workshop in a leader company specialized in sanitary equipment and water and gas connections. We aimed to identify biomechanical constraints among these operators through activity and biomechanical exposures semi-quantitative analysis based on video recordings and MUSKA-TMS software. Methods: We conducted, open observations and exploratory interviews at first, in order to overall understand work situation. Then, we analyzed operator’s activity through systematic observations and interviews. Finally, we conducted a semi-quantitative biomechanical constraints analysis with MUSKA-TMS software after representative activity period video recording. The assessment of biomechanical constrains was based on different criteria; biomechanical characteristics (work positions), aggravating factor (cold, vibration, stress, etc.) and exposure time (duration and frequency of solicitations, recovery phase); with a synthetic score of risk level variable from 1 to 4 (1: low risk of developing MSD and 4: high risk). Results: Semi-quantitative analysis objective many elementary operations with higher biomechanical constrains like high repetitiveness, insufficient recovery time and constraining angulation of shoulders, wrists and cervical spine. Among these risky elementary operations we sited the assembly of sleeve with the body, the assembly of axis, and the control on testing table of gas valves. Transformation of work situations were recommended, covering both the redevelopment of industrial areas and the integration of new tools and equipment of mechanical handling that reduces operator exposure to vibration. Conclusion: Musculoskeletal disorders are complex and costly disorders. Moreover, an approach centered on the observation of the work can promote the interdisciplinary dialogue and exchange between actors with the objective to maximize the performance of a company and improve the quality of life of operators.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, biomechanical constrains, semi-quantitative analysis, ergonomics

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7311 A Study on the Small Biped Soft Robot with Two Insect-Like Nails

Authors: Mami Nishida

Abstract:

This paper presented a study on the development and control of a small biped soft robot using shape memory alloys (SMAs). Author proposed a flexible flat plate (FFP) actuators consisting of a thin polyethylene plate and SMAs. This actuator has a nail like an insect. This robot moves from the front to back and from left to right using two nails. The walking robot has two degrees of freedom and is controlled by switching the ON-OFF current signals to the SMA based FFPs. The resulting small biped soft robot weighs a mere 4.7 g (with a height of 67 mm). The small robot realizes biped walking by transferring the elastic potential energy (generated by deflections of the SMA based FFPs) to kinematic energy. Experimental results demonstrated the viability and utility of the small biped soft robot with the proposed SMA-based FFPs and the control strategy to achieve walking behavior.

Keywords: biped soft robot with nails, flexible flat plate (FFP) actuators, ON-OFF control strategy, shape memory alloys (SMA)

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7310 Central Solar Tower Model

Authors: Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford, Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale

Abstract:

It is presented a model of two subsystems of Central Solar Tower to produce steam in applications to help in energy consumption. The first subsystem consists of 24 heliostats constructed of adaptive and mobile metal structures to track the apparent movement of the sun on its focus and covered by 96 layers of mirror of 150 mm at width and 220 mm at length, totaling an area of concentration of 3.2 m². Thereby obtaining optical parameters essential to reflection of sunlight by the reflector surface and absorption of this light by focus located in the light receiver, which is inserted in the second subsystem, which is at the top of a tower. The tower was built in galvanized iron able to support the absorber, and a gas cylinder to cool the equipment. The area illuminated by the sun was 9 x 10-2m2, yielding a concentration factor of 35.22. It will be shown the processes of manufacture and assembly of the Mini-Central Tower proposal, which has as main characteristics the construction and assembly facilities, in addition to reduced cost. Data of tests to produce water vapor parameters are presented and determined to diagnose the efficiency of the mini-solar central tower. It will be demonstrated the thermal, economic and material viability of the proposed system.

Keywords: solar oven, solar cooker, composite material, low cost, sustainable development

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7309 Influence of Electrode Assembly on Catalytic Activation and Deactivation of a PT Film Immobilized H+ Conducting Solid Electrolyte in Electrocatalytic Reduction Reactions

Authors: M. A. Hasnat, M. Amirul Islam, M. A. Rashed, Jamil. Safwan, M. Mahabubul Alam

Abstract:

Symmetric (Cu–Pt|Nafion|Pt–Cu) and asymmetric(Pt|Nafion|Pt–Cu) assemblies were fabricated to study the nitrate reduction processes at the cathode. The electrocatalytic nitrate reduction reactions were performed in these assemblies in order to investigate the prerequisite for the enhanced catalytic activity, electrochemical cell durability as well as preferable product selectivity resulting from the reduction of nitrate at the cathode. It has been observed for the symmetric assembly that Cu particles were oxidized on the anode surface under an applied potential and the resulting copper ions migrated to the cathode surface through the Nafion membrane, which deposited as copper oxide on the cathode surface. The formation of this copper oxide covering layer on the Pt–Cu cathode surface is attributed as the reason for the deactivation of the cathode that governed the reduced nitrate reduction along with increasing nitrite selectivity. These problems were addressed and resolved with the asymmetric design of the electrocatalytic reactor, where enhanced hydrogen evolution activates the surface by eroding the CuO over layer as well as speeding up the slow rate determining hydrogenation reactions.

Keywords: membrane, nitrate, electrocatalysis, voltammetry, electrolysis

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7308 Vegetables and Fruits Solar Tunnel Dryer for Small-Scale Farmers in Kassala

Authors: Sami Mohamed Sharif

Abstract:

The current study focuses on the design and construction of a solar tunnel dryer intended for small-scale farmers in Kassala, Sudan. To determine the appropriate dimensions of the dryer, the heat and mass balance equations are used, taking into account factors such as the target agricultural product, climate conditions, solar irradiance, and desired drying time. In Kassala, a dryer with a width of 88 cm, length of 600 cm, and height of 25 cm has been built, capable of drying up to 40 kg of vegetables or fruits. The dryer is divided into two chambers of different lengths. The air passing through is heated to the desired drying temperature in a separate heating chamber that is 200 cm long. From there, the heated air enters the drying chamber, which is 400 cm long. In this section, the agricultural product is placed on a slightly elevated net. The tunnel dryer was constructed using materials from the local market. The paper also examines the solar irradiance in Kassala, finding an average of 23.6 MJ/m2/day, with a maximum of 26.6 MJ/m2/day in April and a minimum of 20.2 MJ/m2/day in December. A DC fan powered by a 160Wp solar panel is utilized to circulate air within the tunnel. By connecting the fan and three 12V, 60W bulbs in series, four different speeds can be achieved using a speed controller. Temperature and relative humidity measurements were taken hourly over three days, from 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. The results demonstrate the promising technology and sizing techniques of solar tunnel dryers, which can significantly increase the temperature within the tunnel by more than 90%.

Keywords: tunnel dryer, solar drying, moisture content, fruits drying modeling, open sun drying

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7307 Coalescence Cascade of Vertically-aligned Water Drops on a Super-hydrophobic Surface in Silicone Oil

Authors: M. Brik, S. Harmand, I. Zaaroura

Abstract:

This report, an experimental investigation, concerns the sessile daughter drop remaining during the coalescence of water drops in a liquid-liquid (LL) system. The two drops are initially vertically aligned where the sessile drop is deposited on a chemically treated super-hydrophobic surface of a cube fill of silicone oil. In order to analyze the coalescence dynamics, a series of experiments have been performed using a generation droplets system (KRUSS) that measures contact angles as well coupled with a high-speed camera (Keyence VW-9000E) to record the process at a frame rate of 15000s-1. It’s depicted that in such configuration, the head drop volume has a primordial impact on the dynamics of the coalescence process, especially at the last stage. It’s found that for a sessile drop deposited on a super-hydrophobic surface, where the contact angle is about θ ≈ 145°, the coalescence process is remarked to be complete without any recoiling of the coalesced drop or a generation of a sessile daughter drop at the super-hydrophobic surface when the head drop volume is small enough (Vₐᵦ< Vₛ up to Vₐᵦ = 3Vₛ). On the other side, the coalescence process starts to be followed by jumping off the resulted drop as well as a remaining of a small sessile daughter drop on the bottom surface of the cube from a head drop volume Vₐᵦ of about 4 times than that of the sessile drop Vₛ.

Keywords: drops coalescence, dispersed multiphase flow, drops dynamics, liquid-liquid system

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7306 Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecasting Monthly Flows in Waterval River, South Africa

Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

Abstract:

Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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7305 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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7304 Vector Control of Two Five Phase PMSM Connected in Series Powered by Matrix Converter Application to the Rail Traction

Authors: S. Meguenni, A. Djahbar, K. Tounsi

Abstract:

Electric railway traction systems are complex; they have electrical couplings, magnetic and solid mechanics. These couplings impose several constraints that complicate the modeling and analysis of these systems. An example of drive systems, which combine the advantages of the use of multiphase machines, power electronics and computing means, is mono convert isseur multi-machine system which can control a fully decoupled so many machines whose electric windings are connected in series. In this approach, our attention especially on modeling and independent control of two five phase synchronous machine with permanent magnet connected in series and fed by a matrix converter application to the rail traction (bogie of a locomotive BB 36000).

Keywords: synchronous machine, vector control Multi-machine/ Multi-inverter, matrix inverter, Railway traction

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7303 The Mechanical Properties of a Small-Size Seismic Isolation Rubber Bearing for Bridges

Authors: Yi F. Wu, Ai Q. Li, Hao Wang

Abstract:

Taking a novel type of bridge bearings with the diameter being 100mm as an example, the theoretical analysis, the experimental research as well as the numerical simulation of the bearing were conducted. Since the normal compression-shear machines cannot be applied to the small-size bearing, an improved device to test the properties of the bearing was proposed and fabricated. Besides, the simulation of the bearing was conducted on the basis of the explicit finite element software ANSYS/LS-DYNA, and some parameters of the bearing are modified in the finite element model to effectively reduce the computation cost. Results show that all the research methods are capable of revealing the fundamental properties of the small-size bearings, and a combined use of these methods can better catch both the integral properties and the inner detailed mechanical behaviors of the bearing.

Keywords: ANSYS/LS-DYNA, compression shear, contact analysis, explicit algorithm, small-size

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7302 Evaluating the Tracking Abilities of Microsoft HoloLens-1 for Small-Scale Industrial Processes

Authors: Kuhelee Chandel, Julia Åhlén, Stefan Seipel

Abstract:

This study evaluates the accuracy of Microsoft HoloLens (Version 1) for small-scale industrial activities, comparing its measurements to ground truth data from a Kuka Robotics arm. Two experiments were conducted to assess its position-tracking capabilities, revealing that the HoloLens device is effective for measuring the position of dynamic objects with small dimensions. However, its precision is affected by the velocity of the trajectory and its position within the device's field of view. While the HoloLens device may be suitable for small-scale tasks, its limitations for more complex and demanding applications requiring high precision and accuracy must be considered. The findings can guide the use of HoloLens devices in industrial applications and contribute to the development of more effective and reliable position-tracking systems.

Keywords: augmented reality (AR), Microsoft HoloLens, object tracking, industrial processes, manufacturing processes

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7301 Examining the Market Challenges That Constrain the Proper Sales of Farming Produces Amongst the Small-Scale Farms

Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

Abstract:

Climate change has turned out to be a pandemic that has drawn the attention of many countries’ households around the globe, especially those whose livelihood and economic status depend on agricultural productivity. Hence, the agricultural sector is regarded as the sector that is most dependent on climate conditions for its productivity/harvest, yet in recent years this sector has been experiencing drought. However, adaptation seems to be a tool that every farmer looks upon as a solution to their challenges as their productivity keeps on being vulnerable to climate effects. Thus, exposure/access to the market seems to be a major challenge that faces especially small-scale farmers. We, therefore, examine the small-scale farmers’ constraints or challenges towards getting access to the market for them to get proper sales of their farming products. As a result, the adaptation capacity of every farm household varies on the financial status.

Keywords: climate change, small-scale farming, agriculture sector, adaptation

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7300 PBI Based Composite Membrane for High Temperature Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells

Authors: Kwangwon Seo, Haksoo Han

Abstract:

Al-Si was synthesized and introduced in poly 2,2’-m-(phenylene)-5,5’-bibenzimidazole (PBI). As a result, a series of five Al-Si/PBI composite (ASPBI) membranes (0, 3, 6, 9, and 12 wt.%) were developed and characterized for application in high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs). The chemical and morphological structure of ASPBI membranes were analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffractometer and scanning electron microscopy. According to the doping level test and thermogravimetric analysis, as the concentration of Al-Si increased, the doping level increased up to 475%. Moreover, the proton conductivity, current density at 0.6V, and maximum power density of ASPBI membranes increased up to 0.31 Scm-1, 0.320 Acm-2, and 0.370 Wcm-2, respectively, because the increased concentration of Al-Si allows the membranes to hold more PA. Alternatively, as the amount of Al-Si increased, the tensile strength of PA-doped and -undoped membranes decreased. This was resulted by both excess PA and aggregation, which can cause serious degradation of the membrane and induce cracks. Moreover, the PA-doped and -undoped ASPBI12 had the lowest tensile strength. The improved performances of ASPBI membranes imply that ASPBI membranes are possible candidates for HT-PEMFC applications. However, further studies searching to improve the compatibility between PBI matrix and inorganic and optimize the loading of Al-Si should be performed.

Keywords: composite membrane, high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell, membrane electrode assembly, polybenzimidazole, polymer electrolyte membrane, proton conductivity

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7299 Times Series Analysis of Depositing in Industrial Design in Brazil between 1996 and 2013

Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

Abstract:

With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 526
7298 In vitro Biological Activity of Some Synthesized Monoazo Heterocycles Based On Thiophene and Thiazolyl-Thiophene Analogue

Authors: Mohamed E. Khalifa, Adil A. Gobouri

Abstract:

Potential synthesis of a series of 3-amino-4-arylazothiophene derivatives from reaction of 2-cyano-2-phenylthiocarbamoyl acetamide and the appropriate α-halogenated reagents, followed by coupling with different aryl diazonium salts (Japp-Klingemann reaction), and another series of 5-arylazo-thiazol-2-ylcarbamoyl-thiophene derivatives from base-catalyzed intramolecular condensation of 5-arylazo-2-(N-chloroacetyl)amino-thiazole with selected B-keto compounds (Thorpe-Ziegler reaction) was performed. The biological activity of the two series was studied in vitro. Their versatility for pharmaceutical purposes was reported, where they displayed remarkable activities against selected pathogenic microorganisms; Bacillus subtilize, Staphylococcus aureus (Gram positive bacteria), Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Gram negative bacteria) and Aspergillus flavus, Candida albicans (fungi) with various degrees related to their chemical structures.

Keywords: thiophene, 2-aminothiazole, compounds, antioxidant, antitumor, antimicrobial

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7297 Modified CUSUM Algorithm for Gradual Change Detection in a Time Series Data

Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

Abstract:

The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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7296 Rethinking the Role of Small States in the Hybrid Era: Shifts in the Cypriot Foreign and Defence Policies, 2004-2019

Authors: Constantinos Adamides, Petros Petrikkos

Abstract:

In the era of growing hybrid threats, small states find themselves in need to re-evaluate existing foreign and defense policies. The pressure to establishing or maintain a status of a reliable partner in the community in which they belong to, vis-à-vis their multilateral relations with other organisations and entities, small states may need to shift their policies in the field to accommodate security needs that are not only pertinent to their security, but also to that of the organisations (bloc) in which they interact. Unlike potential shortcomings in a small state’s mainstream security and defence framework where the threat would be limited to the state itself, in more contemporary times with dominating hybrid threats, the small states’ security shortcomings may also become a security problem for the bloc in which these states belong to. An indicative example is small states like Cyprus and Malta, which belong and 'interact' in the European Union. As a result, the nature of hybrid threats can be utilised to hurt bigger states in a bloc by exploiting the small states’ vulnerabilities and security gaps. Inevitably, both the defensive and foreign policy collaborations of small states with bigger states have been and are constantly re-evaluated to tackle and prevent such problems. In essence, the goal of this ‘re-evaluation’ aims to achieve a twofold goal: The first is the small states’ quest to appear as a reliable partner within the bloc, while the second is to avoid being the weakest security link in the bloc’s defence against hybrid threats. Indeed, the hybrid arena is a security area where they can excel in the bloc, despite the potential and expected conventional military deficiencies. This new environment prompts us to think security from the perspective of small states differently and in relation to their role as members or big organisations. The paper focuses on the case of Cyprus following its accession to the European Union and examines how a country that has had a very focused security orientation –not least due to its ongoing security problems– altered its foreign and defence policies within the European Union to ensure compliance with the rest of the bloc, while at the same time maximizing its role as a security player. Specifically, it examines the methods through which the country shifted its policies as well as the challenges and opportunities that emerged from these security shifts.

Keywords: Cyprus, defence, foreign policy, hybrid threats, ontological security, small states

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7295 Challenges Encountered by Small Business Owners in Building Their Social Media Marketing Competency

Authors: Nilay Balkan

Abstract:

Introductory statement: The purpose of this study is to understand how small business owners develop social media marketing competency, the challenges they encounter in doing so, and establish the social media training needs of such businesses. These challenges impact the extent to which small business owners build effective social media knowledge and, in turn, impact their ability to implement effective social media marketing into their business practices. This means small businesses are not fully able to benefit from social media, such as benefits to customer relationship management or increasing brand image, which would support the overall business operations for these businesses. This research is part one of a two-phased study. The first phase aims to establish the challenges small business owners face in building social media marketing competency and their specific training needs. Phase two will then focus in more depth on the barriers and challenges emerging from phase one. Summary of Methodology: Interviews with ten small business owners were conducted from various sectors, including fitness, tourism, food, and drinks. These businesses were located in the central belt of Scotland, which is an area with the highest population and business density in Scotland. These interviews were in-depth and semi-structured, with the purpose of being investigative and understanding the phenomena from the lived experience of the small business owners. A purposive sampling was used, where small business owners fulfilling certain criteria were approached to take part in the interviews. Key findings: The study found four ways in which small business owners develop their social media competency (informal methods, formal methods, learning through a network, and experimenting) and the various challenges they face with these methods. Further, the study established four barriers impacting the development of social media marketing competency among the interviewed small business owners. In doing so, preliminary support needs have also emerged. Concluding statement: The contribution of this study is to understand the challenges small business owners face when learning how to use social media for business purposes and identifying their training needs. This understanding can help the development of specific and tailored support. In addition, specific and tailored training can support small businesses in building competency. This supports small businesses to progress to the next stage of their development, which could be to further their digital transformation or grow their business. The insights from this study can be used to support business competitiveness and support small businesses to become more resilient. Moreover, small businesses and entrepreneurs share some similar characteristics, such as limited resources and conflicting priorities, and the findings of this study may be able to support entrepreneurs in their social media marketing strategies as well.

Keywords: small business, marketing theory and applications, social media marketing, strategic management, digital competency, digitalisation, marketing research and strategy, entrepreneurship

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7294 A Novel Computer-Generated Hologram (CGH) Achieved Scheme Generated from Point Cloud by Using a Lens Array

Authors: Wei-Na Li, Mei-Lan Piao, Nam Kim

Abstract:

We proposed a novel computer-generated hologram (CGH) achieved scheme, wherein the CGH is generated from a point cloud which is transformed by a mapping relationship of a series of elemental images captured from a real three-dimensional (3D) object by using a lens array. This scheme is composed of three procedures: mapping from elemental images to point cloud, hologram generation, and hologram display. A mapping method is figured out to achieve a virtual volume date (point cloud) from a series of elemental images. This mapping method consists of two steps. Firstly, the coordinate (x, y) pairs and its appearing number are calculated from the series of sub-images, which are generated from the elemental images. Secondly, a series of corresponding coordinates (x, y, z) are calculated from the elemental images. Then a hologram is generated from the volume data that is calculated by the previous two steps. Eventually, a spatial light modulator (SLM) and a green laser beam are utilized to display this hologram and reconstruct the original 3D object. In this paper, in order to show a more auto stereoscopic display of a real 3D object, we successfully obtained the actual depth data of every discrete point of the real 3D object, and overcame the inherent drawbacks of the depth camera by obtaining point cloud from the elemental images.

Keywords: elemental image, point cloud, computer-generated hologram (CGH), autostereoscopic display

Procedia PDF Downloads 559
7293 Comparison of Efficient Production of Small Module Gears

Authors: Vaclav Musil, Robert Cep, Sarka Malotova, Jiri Hajnys, Frantisek Spalek

Abstract:

The new designs of satellite gears comprising a number of small gears pose high requirements on the precise production of small module gears. The objective of the experimental activity stated in this article was to compare the conventional rolling gear cutting technology with the modern wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM) technology for the production of small module gear m=0.6 mm (thickness of 2.5 mm and material 30CrMoV9). The WEDM technology lies in copying the profile of gearing from the rendered trajectory which is then transferred to the track of a wire electrode. During the experiment, we focused on the comparison of these production methods. Main measured parameters which significantly influence the lifetime and noise was chosen. The first parameter was to compare the precision of gearing profile in respect to the mathematic model. The second monitored parameter was the roughness and surface topology of the gear tooth side. The experiment demonstrated high accuracy of WEDM technology, but a low quality of machined surface.

Keywords: precision of gearing, small module gears, surface topology, WEDM technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 212