Search results for: rainfall events

Authors: Adamu Garba, Saidu Idi

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This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of Dermatophilosis in cattle in Bauchi State and suggest possible control measures. Data were obtained from the State Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Veterinary Division and monthly reports from Local Government Area Veterinary Offices for a period of three years ranging from 1996-1998. The result revealed that the disease is more prevalent in the rainy season which coincides with preponderance of the predisposing factors. Of the total 17,252 infected cattle in the State, Western zone had the highest cases with 8,298 (50.0%), followed by Central zone with 5,211 (30.0%) and the least was in the Northern zone with 3,753 (20.0%) cases. Rainfall pattern within the zones could be responsible for the variation in the prevalence rate. Analysis of variance revealed that there is no significant difference in the prevalence of Dermatophilosis between the years (P<0.212) while there is significant difference within the zones (P<0.012). Correlation analysis carried out showed that there is positive relationship between rainfall and Dermatophilosis (r<0.909). Since the disease is more prevalent during the rainy season, efforts should be exerted on thorough preventive measures during the period to control the disease in the State, particularly in the Western zone.

Keywords: incidence, dermatophilosis, cattle, Bauchi State

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Authors: Taieb Kherafa Noureddine

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The paper presents a new approach regarding the management in sports that is based on the principles of reengineering. Applying that modern and pure management system, called reengineering, in sports activity, we hope to get better and better results, in order to increase both the health state and the performances of trained athletes. The paper also presents the similarities between BPR (Business Process Reengineering) and sports managements, as well as the proposed solution for a proper implementation of such model of management. The five components of the basic BPR model are presented, together with their features for sports management.

Keywords: business process reengineering, great sports events, sports management, training activities

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Authors: Jose Ramon Sanabria Navarro, Yahilina Silveira Perez

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The Pan American Games are one of the best regional sports integration events for the Americas, thousands of athletes from different countries are integrated based on obtaining satisfactory sports results and bringing the glory of the national identity of the sport to their country. There are countries that despite the small number of inhabitants have obtained very satisfactory results such as Cuba. Objective: To analyze the impact of Cuba's sports results in the Pan American Games. The methodology was based on the postulates of the materialist dialectic since the investigated reality was studied from historicity, systematicity and in its systemic character. The population and sample consisted of 41 countries of the American continent, and the 15 events carried out to date were analyzed. The impact of Cuba is very relevant because it is the country that has the second place by country in terms of number of medals, is among the first in terms of medals per inhabitants and in general sense of all the indicators treated assumes the fourth place integral. What is the current status of Cuba's sports results in Pan American Games? Having as a general objective, analyze the impact of Cuba's sports results in the Pan American Games. The hypotheses that will lead this research have the following methodological and interaction order: H1: Cuba's performance in Pan American Sports Games positively impacts the amount of medals obtained. H2: The amount of medals from Cuba in Pan American Sports Games positively impacts the general podium for countries of these regional events. H3: The amount of medals obtained by Cuba in Pan American Sports Games positively impacts the number of inhabitants. H4: The amount of medals obtained by Cuba positively impacts the overall result of the countries. H5: Cuba's performance in the Panamerican Sports Games positively impacts the overall results of these regional events. In general, it is possible to demonstrate the impact of Cuba's sports performance in Pan American Games and the organizational sports structure that has allowed the country to obtain them is evidenced.

Keywords: Cuba, history of sport, sports games, regional events, sport

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Authors: S. Kurian, S. Satpathy, S. K. Gupta, S. Arya, D. K. Sharma

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Advances in the use of health care technology have resulted in increased adverse events (AEs) related to the use of medical devices. The study focused on the existing reporting systems. This study was conducted in a tertiary care public sector hospital. Devices included Syringe infusion pumps, Cardiac monitors, Pulse oximeters, Ventilators and Defibrillators. A total of 211 respondents were recruited. Interviews were held with 30 key informants. Medical records were scrutinized. Relevant statistical tests were used. Resident doctors reported maximum frequency of AEs, followed by nurses; and least by consultants. A significant association was found between the cadre of health care personnel and awareness that the patients and bystanders have a risk of sustaining AE. Awareness regarding reporting of AEs was low, and it was generally done verbally. Other critical findings are discussed in the light of the barriers to reporting, reasons for non-compliance, recording system, and so on.

Keywords: adverse events, health care technology, medical devices, public sector hospital, reporting systems

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Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

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Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

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Authors: Bo Liu, Qingshan Kong, Weiqing Huang

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With the rapid development of modern communication, diagnosing the fiber-optic quality and faults in real-time is widely focused. In this paper, a Labview-based system is proposed for fiber-optic faults detection. The wavelet threshold denoising method combined with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to denoise the optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) signal. Then the method based on Gabor representation is used to detect events. Experimental measurements show that signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the OTDR signal is improved by 1.34dB on average, compared with using the wavelet threshold denosing method. The proposed system has a high score in event detection capability and accuracy. The maximum detectable fiber length of the proposed Labview-based system can be 65km.

Keywords: empirical mode decomposition, events detection, Gabor transform, optical time domain reflectometer, wavelet threshold denoising

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Authors: Emmanuel Yussuf, John Muthama, John Ng'ang'A

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There has been increasing noise levels all over the world in the last decade. Many factors contribute to this increase, which is causing health related effects to humans. Developing countries are not left out of the whole picture as they are still growing and advancing their development. Motor vehicles are increasing on urban roads; there is an increase in infrastructure due to the rising population, increasing number of industries to provide goods and so many other activities. All this activities lead to the high noise levels in cities. This study was conducted in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) with the main objective of simulating noise levels in order to understand the noise exposed to the people within the urban area, in relation to weather parameters namely temperature, rainfall and wind field. The study was achieved using the Neighbourhood Proximity Model and Time Series Analysis, with data obtained from proxies/remotely-sensed from satellites, in order to establish the levels of noise exposed to which people of Nairobi CBD are exposed to. The findings showed that there is an increase in temperature (0.1°C per year) and a decrease in precipitation (40 mm per year), which in comparison to the noise levels in the area, are increasing. The study also found out that noise levels exposed to people in Nairobi CBD were roughly between 61 and 63 decibels and has been increasing, a level which is high and likely to cause adverse physical and psychological effects on the human body in which air temperature, precipitation and wind contribute so much in the spread of noise. As a noise reduction measure, the use of sound proof materials in buildings close to busy roads, implementation of strict laws to most emitting sources as well as further research on the study was recommended. The data used for this study ranged from the year 2000 to 2015, rainfall being in millimeters (mm), temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) and the urban form characteristics being in meters (m).

Keywords: simulation, noise exposure, weather, proxy

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Authors: Ada Yurman

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Social reactions to deviant groups with political goals follow two central patterns; one that associates personal characteristics with deviant behavior, and the other that claims that society is to be blamed for deviant behavior. The establishment usually tends towards the former notion and thus disclaims any responsibility for the distress of the underprivileged, while it is usually those who oppose government policies who believe that the fault lies with society. The purpose of the present research was to examine social reactions to the Wadi Salib riots that occurred in Haifa in 1959. These riots represented the first ethnic protest within Israeli society with its ideology of the ingathering of the exiles. The central question was whether this ideology contributed to the development of a different reaction when compared to reactions to similar events abroad. This question was examined by means of analyzing articles in the Israeli press of that period. The Israeli press representing the views of the establishment was at pains to point out that the rioters were criminals, their object being to obstruct the development of society. Opposition party leaders claimed that the rioters lived in poor circumstances, which constituted a direct result of government policies. An analysis of press reports on the Wadi Salib riots indicates a correspondence between the reaction to these events and similar events abroad. Nevertheless, the reaction to the Wadi Salib riots did not only express a conflict between different political camps, but also different symbolic universes. Each group exploited the events at Wadi Salib to prove that their ideology was the legitimate one.

Keywords: riots, media, political deviance, symbolic universe

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Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

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Authors: Leonard Chimaobi Agim, Charles Arinzechukwu Igwe, Emmanuel Uzoma Onweremadu, Gabreil Osuji

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Soil erosion has been linked to stream sedimentation, ecosystem degradation, and loss of soil nutrients. A study was conducted to evaluate the effect of some organic amendment on sediment yield, splash loss, and runoff of soils of selected parent materials in southeastern Nigeria. A total of 20 locations, five from each of four parent materials namely: Asu River Group (ARG), Bende Ameki Group (BAG), Coastal Plain Sand (CPS) and Falsebedded Sandstone (FBS) were used for the study. Collected soil samples were analyzed with standard methods for the initial soil properties. Rainfall simulation at an intensity of 190 mm hr-1was conducted for 30 minutes on the soil samples at both the initial stage and after amendment to obtain erosion parameters. The influence of parent material on sediment yield, splash loss and runoff based on rainfall simulation was tested for using one way analyses of variance, while the influence of organic material and their combinations were a factorially fitted in a randomized complete block design. The organic amendments include; goat dropping (GD), poultry dropping (PD), municipal solid waste (MSW) and their combinations (COA) applied at four rates of 0, 10, 20 and 30 t ha-1 respectively. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance suitable for a factorial experiment. Significant means were separated using LSD at 5 % probability levels. Result showed significant (p ≤ 0.05) lower values of sediment yield, splash loss and runoff following amendment. For instance, organic amendment reduced sediment yield under wet and dry runs by 12.91 % and 26.16% in Ishiagu, 40.76% and 45.67%, in Bende, 16.17% and 50% in Obinze and 22.80% and 42.35% in Umulolo respectively. Goat dropping and combination of amendment gave the best results in reducing sediment yield.

Keywords: organic amendment, parent material, rainfall simulation, soil erosion

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Authors: Jinee Gogoi, Som K. Sharma, Kalyan Bhuyan

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The atmospheric layers are coupled to each other with the different dynamical, electrical, radiative and chemical processes. A large scale thermodynamical phenomenon in winter polar regions which affects the middle atmosphere vigorously is Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Two major SSW events were occurred during 1998-1999; one in December 1998 which is associated with vortex displacement and another in February- March 1999 associated with vortex splitting. Lidar study of these two major events from Mt. Abu (24.36⁰N, 72.45⁰E, ~1670 m amsl) has shown that though SSWs are mostly observed over high and mid latitudes, their effects can also be seen over India. We have studied ionospheric variations (primarily fₒF₂, h’F and hpF₂) over Ahmedabad (23.1⁰N, 72.58⁰E) during these events. Ionospheric disturbances have been found after four-five days of peak temperature. An increase (decrease) in critical frequency (fₒF₂) during morning (afternoon) has been noticed which may be in response to the updrift (down drift). Effects are stronger during displacement event (1998) than during the splitting event (1999). We have also studied some recent events occurred during 2006 (January), 2009 (January) and 2013 (January) using temperature data from Sounding of Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite. Though some modeling work supports the hypothesis that planetary waves are responsible for atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, there is still more significant works to do to understand how exactly the coupling can take place.

Keywords: sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), polar vortex, ionosphere, critical frequency

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Authors: Kok Meng Ng, Sulung Veronica

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Electronic Dance Music (EDM), a musical event that so sought-after amongst the youth, is getting prevailed around the world. The emergence of this à la mode event has magnetized lots of attentions from the media as well as the public due to its high probabilities in creating social problems and menacing social harmony of one destination, for instance, two death cases occurred during the EDM events in Malaysia caused a feeling of consternation of the society. The arguments over the impacts of such events towards the society are endless. This paper focuses on the study of the impacts of EDM towards social harmony in Klang Valley area, Malaysia by scrutinizing the contradiction of statements from several experts and the local communities. This study sampled 15-20 people that represent different social background with face-to-face and online interview through snowball sampling method. This study helps to understand the social context as a whole based on the impacts of EDM events that take place in Malaysia. It also provides valuable information to EDMs’ organizer as well as local authorities for a proper event management to minimize EDM impacts towards society as part of the sustainable growth of the event industry.

Keywords: electronic dance music, social harmony, impacts, Klang Valley

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Authors: Rebecca A. Deek

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There is evidence that erratic and extreme weather is becoming a common occurrence, and even predictions that this will become even more frequent and more severe. It also appears that the severity of earthquakes is intensifying. Some observers believe that human conduct has given reasons for such change; others attribute this to environmental and geological cycles. However, as some physicists, environmental scientists, politicians, and others continue to debate the connection between weather events, seismic activities, and climate change, other scientists, engineers, and urban planners are exploring how can our habitat become more responsive and resilient to such phenomena. There are a number of recent instances of nature’s destructive events that provide basis for the development of defensive measures.

Keywords: biomimicry, natural disasters, protection of human lives, resilient infrastructures

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Authors: Shawn G. Gallaher, Lilli E. Hirth

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As permafrost thaws with the continued warming of the Alaskan North Slope, a progressively thicker active thaw layer is evidently releasing previously sequestered nutrients, metals, and particulate matter exposed to fluvial transport. In this study, we estimate material fluxes on the North Slope of Alaska during the 2019-2022 melt seasons. The watershed of the Alaskan North Slope can be categorized into three regions: mountains, tundra, and coastal plain. Precipitation and discharge data were collected from repeat visits to 14 sample sites for biogeochemical surface water samples, 7 point discharge measurements, 3 project deployed meteorology stations, and 2 U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous discharge observation sites. The timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of precipitation determine the material flux composition in the Sagavanirktok and surrounding bodies of water, with geogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)) expected from mountain flushed events and biogenic constituents (e.g., dissolved organic compound (DOC)) expected from transitional tundra precipitation events. Project goals include connecting late summer precipitation events to peak discharge to determine the responses of the watershed to localized atmospheric forcing. Field study measurements showed widespread precipitation in August 2019, generating an increase in total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and iron fluxes from the tundra, shifting the main-stem mountain river biogeochemistry toward tundra source characteristics typically only observed during the spring floods. Intuitively, a large-scale precipitation event (as defined by this study as exceeding 12.5 mm of precipitation on a single observation day) would dilute a body of water; however, in this study, concentrations increased with higher discharge responses on several occasions. These large-scale precipitation events continue to produce peak constituent fluxes as the thaw layer increases in depth and late summer precipitation increases, evidenced by 6 large-scale events in July 2022 alone. This increase in late summer events is in sharp contrast to the 3 or fewer large events in July in each of the last 10 years. Changes in precipitation intensity, timing, and location have introduced late summer peak constituent flux events previously confined to the spring freshet.

Keywords: Alaska North Slope, arctic rivers, material flux, precipitation

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Authors: A. Caicedo Padilla, J. Zambrano Nájera

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Cali, the capital of Valle del Cauca and the second city of Colombia, is located in the Cauca River Valley between the Western and Central Cordillera that is South West of the country. The topography of the city is mainly flat, but it is possibly to find mountains in the west. The city has increased urbanization during XX century, especially since 1958 when started a rapid growth due to migration of people from other parts of the region. Much of that population has settled in eastern of Cali, an area originally intended for cane cultivation and a zone of flood from Cauca River and its tributaries. Due to the unplanned migration, settling was inadequate and produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Sewerage networks capacity were not enough for this higher runoff volume, because in first term they were not adequately designed and built, causing its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods generating considerable effects on the economy and development of normal activities in Cali. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization on hydrology of watersheds with very low slopes. The project aims to identify changes in natural drainage patterns caused by the changes made on landscape. From the identification of such modifications it will be defined the most critical areas due to recurring flood events in the city of Cali. Critical areas are defined as areas where the sewerage system does not work properly as surface runoff increases considerable with storm events, and floods are recurrent. The assessment will be done from the analysis of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers from CVC Environmental Institution of Regional Control in Valle del Cauca, hydrological data and disaster database developed by OSSO Corporation. Rainfall data from a network and historical stream flow data will be used for analysis of historical behavior and change of precipitation and hydrological response according to homogeneous zones characterized by EMCALI S.A. public utility enterprise of Cali in 1999.

Keywords: drainage systems, land cover changes, urban hydrology, urban planning

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Authors: Mohsen Yaghmoor, Sima Radmanesh, Ameneh Gholami

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Cities are the principal ground for manifestation of an information society. To create an entrepreneurial city, it is required that just and equal access to opportunities are provided for all segments of the city and technologies are intelligently employed. Furthermore, it is necessary for us to be electronically ready in all political, economic, social, cultural, and technological aspects. Also e-city creates enormous potentials and opportunities for development of the entrepreneurial city. After improvement of e-readiness for establishment of entrepreneurial e-city, potentials, and capitals of the city become productive and more suitable opportunities are offered to citizens, state sectors, and private sectors in order to become entrepreneurs. To create and develop an entrepreneurial city, we need to have readiness to detection and creation of entrepreneurial opportunities and finally exploitation of these opportunities which, in turn, lead to use of entrepreneurial events and their quality in the city. In this model, the quality of entrepreneurial events, the productivity of activities, the necessity of reducing the digital gap, positive and active attendance in information society and compatibility and aligning with the global society are emphasized. In an entrepreneurial city, citizens are not help seekers, private sector is not passive, and the government is entrepreneurial.

Keywords: e-city, e-readiness, entrepreneurial city, entrepreneurial events, technological entrepreneurship

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Authors: Sabry A. El Azazy

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Tourism plays an essential role in supporting the National Economy. Egypt was ranked as one of the most attractive touristic destinations worldwide. Tourism as a service sector affects political events and unstable conditions. Within the revolution of January 25th, 2011, tourism became below standards, and the archeological heritage sites were subject to threat. Because of the political tension and social instability, Egypt's tourism sector has drastically dropped. Currently, Egypt is working on overcoming the crisis caused by political unrest. However, it is expected to take a long time to get back to where it was, especially in terms of regaining the confidence of travelers in the country's ability to guarantee and maintain security and stability. Recently, many great projects have been done, such as; New Administrative Cairo Capital, New Suez Canal logistic project, New City of Al Alamin, New Grand Egyptian Museum, as well as other great projects that reflect positively on the tourism industry and archaeological heritage development in Egypt.

Keywords: archaeology, archaeological heritage, attractions, national economy, political events, touristic destinations, tourism industry

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Authors: Mareen Brosterhaus, Antje Hammer, Steffen Kalina, Stefan Grau, Anjali A. Roeth, Hany Ashmawy, Thomas Gross, Marcel Binnebosel, Wolfram T. Knoefel, Tanja Manser

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Background: The identification of critical incidents in hospitals is an essential component of improving patient safety. To date, various methods have been used to measure and characterize such critical incidents. These methods are often viewed by physicians and nurses as external quality assurance, and this creates obstacles to the reporting events and the implementation of recommendations in practice. One way to overcome this problem is to use tools that directly involve staff in measuring indicators of quality and safety of care in the department. One such instrument is the global trigger tool (GTT), which helps physicians and nurses identify adverse events by systematically reviewing randomly selected patient records. Based on so-called ‘triggers’ (warning signals), indications of adverse events can be given. While the tool is already used internationally, its implementation in German hospitals has been very limited. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the feasibility and potential of the global trigger tool for identifying adverse events in German hospitals. Methods: A total of 120 patient records were randomly selected from two surgical, and one neurosurgery, departments of three university hospitals in Germany over a period of two months per department between January and July, 2017. The records were reviewed using an adaptation of the German version of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement Global Trigger Tool to identify triggers and adverse event rates per 1000 patient days and per 100 admissions. The severity of adverse events was classified using the National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention. Results: A total of 53 adverse events were detected in the three departments. This corresponded to adverse event rates of 25.5-72.1 per 1000 patient-days and from 25.0 to 60.0 per 100 admissions across the three departments. 98.1% of identified adverse events were associated with non-permanent harm without (Category E–71.7%) or with (Category F–26.4%) the need for prolonged hospitalization. One adverse event (1.9%) was associated with potentially permanent harm to the patient. We also identified practical challenges in the implementation of the tool, such as the need for adaptation of the global trigger tool to the respective department. Conclusions: The global trigger tool is feasible and an effective instrument for quality measurement when adapted to the departmental specifics. Based on our experience, we recommend a continuous use of the tool thereby directly involving clinicians in quality improvement.

Keywords: adverse events, global trigger tool, patient safety, record review

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Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

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The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

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Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Y. Fekir, K. Mederbal, M. A. Hamadouche, D. Anteur

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The soil erosion by water has become one of the biggest problems of the environment in the world, threatening the majority of countries. There are several models to evaluate erosion. These models are still a simplified representation of reality. They permit the analysis of complex systems, measurements are complementary to allow an extrapolation in time and space and may combine different factors. The empirical model of soil loss proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (Universal Soil Loss Equation), is widely used in many countries. He considers that erosion is a multiplicative function of five factors: rainfall erosivity (the R factor) the soil erodibility factor (K), topography (LS), the erosion control practices (P) and vegetation cover and agricultural practices (C). In this work, we tried to develop a tool based on Web GIS functionality to evaluate soil losses caused by erosion taking into account five factors. This tool allows the user to integrate all the data needed for the evaluation (DEM, Land use, rainfall ...) in the form of digital layers to calculate the five factors taken into account in the USLE equation (R, K, C, P, LS). Accordingly, and after treatment of the integrated data set, a map of the soil losses will be achieved as a result. We tested the proposed tool on a watershed basin located in the weste of Algeria where a dataset was collected and prepared.

Keywords: USLE, erosion, web gis, Algeria

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban areas contain abundant potential biochemical storages and renewable and non-renewable flows. Urban natural environments for breeding natural assets and urban economic development for maintaining urban functions can be analyzed form the concept of ecological economic system. Land use change and ecosystem services change are resulting from the interactions between human activities and environments factually. Land use change due to human activities is the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and supporting services. However, it lacks discussion on the interactions among urban land use change, ecosystem services change, and extreme precipitation events. Energy synthesis can use the same measure standard unit, solar energy, for different energy resources (e.g. sunlight, water, fossil fuels, minerals, etc.) and analyze contributions of various natural environmental resources on human economic systems. Therefore, this research adopts the concept of ecological, economic systems and energy synthesis for analyzing dynamic spatial impacts of land use change on ecosystem services, using the Taipei area as a case study. The analysis results show that changes in land use in the Taipei area, especially the conversion of natural lands and agricultural lands to urban lands, affect the ecosystem services negatively. These negative effects become more significant during the extreme precipitation events.

Keywords: urban ecological economic system, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, energy

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

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Authors: Hemant Kumar

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Brahmaputra River is known according to the Hindu mythology the son of the Lord Brahma. According to this name, the river Brahmaputra creates mass destruction during the monsoon season in Assam, India. It is a state situated in North-East part of India. This is one of the essential states out of the seven countries of eastern India, where almost all entire Brahmaputra flow carried out. The other states carry their tributaries. In the present case study, the spatial analysis performed in this specific case the number of MODIS data are acquired. In the method of detecting the change, the spray content was found during heavy rainfall and in the flooded monsoon season. By this method, particularly the analysis over the Brahmaputra outflow determines the flooded season. The charged particle-associated in aerosol content genuinely verifies the heavy water content below the ground surface, which is validated by trend analysis through rainfall spectrum data. This is confirmed by in-situ sampled view data from a different position of Brahmaputra River. Further, a Hyperion Hyperspectral 30 m resolution data were used to scan the sediment deposits, which is also confirmed by in-situ sampled view data from a different position.

Keywords: aerosol, change detection, spatial analysis, trend analysis

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Authors: Edda E. Falcone, Cinzia Federico, Sergio Bellomo, Lorenzo Brusca, Manfredi Longo, Walter D’Alessandro

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Although trace metals are an essential element for living beings, they can become toxic at high concentrations. Their potential toxicity is related not only to the total content in the environment but mostly upon their bioavailability. Volcanoes are important natural metal emitters and they can deeply affect the quality of air, water and soils, as well as the human health. Trace metals tend to accumulate in the tissues of living organisms, depending on the metal contents in food, air and water and on the exposure time. Birds are considered as bioindicators of interest, because their feathers directly reflects the metals uptake from the blood. Birds are exposed to the atmospheric pollution through the contact with rainfall, dust, and aerosol, and they accumulate metals over the whole life cycle. We report on the first data combining the rainfall metal content in three different areas of Mt Etna, variably fumigated by the volcanic plume, and the metal contents in the feathers of pigeons, collected in the same areas. Rainfall samples were collected from three rain gauges placed at different elevation on the Eastern flank of the volcano, the most exposed to airborne plume, filtered, treated with HNO₃ Suprapur-grade and analyzed for Fe, Cr, Co, Ni, Se, Zn, Cu, Sr, Ba, Cd and As by ICP-MS technique, and major ions by ion chromatography. Feathers were collected from single individuals, in the same areas where the rain gauges were installed. Additionally, some samples were collected in an urban area, poorly interested by the volcanic plume. The samples were rinsed in MilliQ water and acetone, dried at 50°C until constant weight and digested in a mixture of 2:1 HNO₃ (65%) - H₂O₂ (30%) Suprapur-grade for 25-50 mg of sample, in a bath at near-to-boiling temperature. The solutions were diluted up to 20 ml prior to be analyzed by ICP-MS. The rainfall samples most contaminated by the plume were collected at close distance from the summit craters (less than 6 km), and show lower pH values and higher concentrations for all analyzed metals relative to those from the sites at lower elevation. Analyzed samples are enriched in both metals directly emitted by the volcanic plume and transported by acidic gases (SO₂, HCl, HF), and metals leached from the airborne volcanic ash. Feathers show different patterns in the different sites related to the exposure to natural or anthropogenic pollutants. They show abundance ratios similar to rainfall for lithophile elements (Ba, Sr), whereas are enriched in Zn and Se, known for their antioxidant properties, probably as adaptive response to oxidative stress induced by toxic metal exposure. The pigeons revealed a clear heterogeneity of metal uptake in the different parts of the volcano, as an effect of volcanic plume impact. Additionally, some physiological processes can modify the fate of some metals after uptake and this offer some insights for translational studies.

Keywords: bioindicators, environmental pollution, feathers, trace metals, volcanic plume

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Authors: Elizabeth F. Rodrigues, Julia da R. Mattos, Naira Q. Leitão, Roberta T. da Cunha

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The business strategy of many companies has two factors in common: the search for the competitive edge and its long term maintenance. The thing that differentiates the companies’ performance in their abilities to set the right strategy, which depends on their capacity to analyze and apply all sort of management support tools. In this context, the sponsorship of events stands out as an important way to increase brand awareness, especially when it is a worldwide event, such as Rio 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games. This paper will present the case of a car maker company, which chose to invest on sponsorship as a way to reach its goals and grow in the brazilian market.

Keywords: strategy, sponsorship, events, management

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Authors: Saeed Mohammadirad

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Financing activities involve long-term liabilities, stockholders' equity (or owner's equity), and changes to short-term borrowings. Finance is very important for every business activities. To perform the finance we have to follow the accounting languages bases on the nature of the business. If all are one package in the software, it is easy to handle, monitor, control, plan, organize, direct and budget the finance. Let us make a challenge in the computer software for the whole finance packages of every business related activities. In this article, it mentioned about the finance functions in the various levels of the business activities and how it should be maintained properly to avoid the unethical events.

Keywords: financing activities, business activities, computer software, unethical events

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Zhengyang Ma

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Mongolia is a significant country bordered by China and Russia. The Mongolian people are the descendants of Genghis Khan. Mongolia has a glorious history and possesses strategic mineral resources. Throughout history, the Qing empire of China has always considered this region as part of China’s hegemony. Due to a series of historical events, Mongolia successfully achieved its independence from China in 1945. In order to clearly understand the status quo in Mongolia today better, it is necessary to explore the reasons that caused Mongolia to achieve its independence from a historical context. Therefore, this essay will analyze and describe the crucial events and reasons that led to the independence of Mongolia through different historical periods.

Keywords: Mongolia, history, power bargain, Sino-Russia relations

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Li Yongyi

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In order to explore the distribution of geological disasters within the expressway area of Shaanxi Province, the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory is applied based on the geographic information system technology platform, and the ground elevation, rainfall, vegetation coverage and other indicators are selected for analysis, and the expressway area is sensitive Sexual evaluation. The results show that the highway area disasters in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the southern mountainous areas and are dominated by landslides; the disaster area ratio basically increases with the increase in ground elevation, surface slope, surface undulation, rainfall, and vegetation coverage. The increase in the distance from the river shows a decreasing trend; after grading the disaster sensitivity within 5km of the expressway, the extremely sensitive area, the highly sensitive area, the medium sensitive area, the low sensitive area, and the extremely low sensitive area respectively account for 8.17%、15.80%、22.99%、26.22%、26.82%. Highly sensitive road areas are mainly distributed in southern Shaanxi.

Keywords: highway engineering, sensitivity, analytic hierarchy process, geological hazard, road area

Procedia PDF Downloads 91