Search results for: interest rate model

Authors: Vahdettin Sariyel, Birol Dag

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In this research, it is aimed to determine the effects of several environmental factors on adaptation and some yield parameters of Saanen goats reared under intensive conditions at a private farm in Konya province. Gestation rate, twins rate and litter size were evaluated as reproductive traits. Gestation rate was determined as 93.8% and 90.5% for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Twins rate was determined as 59.35 % and 70.00 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Litter size was 1.49 and 1.46 for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Survival rates of kids from birth to weaning at three months of age were found as 87.74 % and 98.54 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively.

Keywords: gestation rate, reproduction, saanen, twins rate, vitality

Procedia PDF Downloads 577

Authors: Zaid Almahmoud, Rana Mahmoud

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To mitigate the environmental impacts of throwing away plastic waste, there has been a recent interest in manufacturing and producing biodegradable plastics. Here, we study a new class of biodegradable plastics which are mixed with external natural additives, including catalytic additives that lead to a successful degradation of the resulting material. To recommend the best alternative among multiple materials, we propose a multi-objective AI model that evaluates the material against multiple objectives given the material properties. As a proof of concept, the AI model was implemented in an expert system and evaluated using multiple materials. Our findings showed that Polyethylene Terephalate is potentially the best biodegradable plastic substitute based on its material properties. Therefore, it is recommended that governments shift the attention to the use of Polyethylene Terephalate in the manufacturing of bottles to gain a great environmental and sustainable benefits.

Keywords: plastic bottles, expert systems, multi-objective model, biodegradable substitutes

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Authors: Umadevi B., Dinesh P. A., Indira. R., Vinay C. V.

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A mathematical model is developed to study the simultaneous effects of particle drag and slip parameter on the velocity as well as rate of flow in an annular cross sectional region bounded by two eccentric cylinders. In physiological flows this phenomena can be observed in an eccentric catheterized artery with inner cylinder wall is impermeable and outer cylinder wall is permeable. Blood is a heterogeneous fluid having liquid phase consisting of plasma in which a solid phase of suspended cells and proteins. Arterial wall gets damaged due to aging and lipid molecules get deposited between damaged tissue cells. Blood flow increases towards the damaged tissues in the artery. In this investigation blood is modeled as two phase fluid as one is a fluid phase and the other is particulate phase. The velocity of the fluid phase and rate of flow are obtained by transforming eccentric annulus to concentric annulus with the conformal mapping. The formulated governing equations are analytically solved for the velocity and rate of flow. The numerical investigations are carried out by varying eccentricity parameter, slip parameter and drag parameter. Enhancement of slip parameter signifies loss of fluid then the velocity and rate of flow will be decreased. As particulate drag parameter increases then the velocity as well as rate flow decreases. Eccentricity facilitates transport of more fluid then the velocity and rate of flow increases.

Keywords: catheter, slip parameter, drag parameter, eccentricity

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Authors: Myunggon Yoon, Jung-Ho Moon

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In this paper, we present a transfer function representation of a general one-dimensional combustor. The input of the transfer function is a heat rate perturbation of a burner and the output is a flow velocity perturbation at the burner. This paper considers a general combustor model composed of multiple cans with different cross sectional areas, along with a non-zero flow rate.

Keywords: combustor, dynamics, thermoacoustics, transfer function

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Authors: Nicolas Plamondon, Stuart Atkinson, Shuzi Zhou

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The insurance industry is usually not the first topic one has in mind when thinking about applications of data science. However, the use of data science in the finance and insurance industry is growing quickly for several reasons, including an abundance of reliable customer data, ferocious competition requiring more accurate pricing, etc. Among the top use cases of data science, we find pricing optimization, customer segmentation, customer risk assessment, fraud detection, marketing, and triage analytics. The objective of this paper is to present an application of the generalized additive model (GAM) on a commercial automobile insurance product: an individually rated commercial automobile. These are vehicles used for commercial purposes, but for which there is not enough volume to apply pricing to several vehicles at the same time. The GAM model was selected as an improvement over GLM for its ease of use and its wide range of applications. The model was trained using the largest split of the data to determine model parameters. The remaining part of the data was used as testing data to verify the quality of the modeling activity. We used the Gini coefficient to evaluate the performance of the model. For long-term monitoring, commonly used metrics such as RMSE and MAE will be used. Another topic of interest in the insurance industry is to process of producing the model. We will discuss at a high level the interactions between the different teams with an insurance company that needs to work together to produce a model and then monitor the performance of the model over time. Moreover, we will discuss the regulations in place in the insurance industry. Finally, we will discuss the maintenance of the model and the fact that new data does not come constantly and that some metrics can take a long time to become meaningful.

Keywords: insurance, data science, modeling, monitoring, regulation, processes

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to optimize and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~2000 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.8 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0 DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i.e. from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75% and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA, pH affect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model presents relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, hetrotrophic denitritation

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Authors: Sajjad Negahban, Ruihe Wang, Baojiang Sun

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Gas-lift dual gradient drilling is a solution for deepwater drilling challenges. As well, Continuous development of drilling technology leads to increase employment of mineral oil based drilling fluids and synthetic-based drilling fluids, which have adequate characteristics such as: high rate of penetration, lubricity, shale inhibition and low toxicity. The paper discusses utilization of nitrified mineral oil base drilling for deepwater drilling and for more accurate prediction of pressure in DGD at marine riser, solubility and bubble pressure were considered in steady state hydraulic model. The Standing bubble pressure and solubility correlations, and two models which were acquired from experimental determination were applied in hydraulic model. The effect of the black oil correlations, and new solubility and bubble pressure models was evaluated on the PVT parameters such as oil formation volume factor, density, viscosity, volumetric flow rate. Eventually, the consequent simulated pressure profile due to these models was presented.

Keywords: solubility, bubble pressure, gas-lift dual gradient drilling, steady state hydraulic model

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Authors: Mahmood Alsaadi, Alexei Lisitsa

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Nowadays, medical devices rely completely on software whether as whole software or as embedded software, therefore, the organization that develops medical device software can benefit from adopting agile practices. Using agile practices in healthcare software development industries would bring benefits such as producing a product of a high-quality with low cost and in short period. However, medical device software development companies faced challenges in adopting agile practices. These due to the gaps that exist between agile practices and the requirements of healthcare regulations such as documentation, traceability, and formality. This research paper will conduct a study to investigate the adoption rate of agile practice in medical device software development, and they will extract and outline the requirements of healthcare regulations such as Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), and Medical Device Directive (MDD) that affect directly or indirectly on software development life cycle. Moreover, this research paper will evaluate the suitability of using agile practices in healthcare industries by analyzing the most popular agile practices such as eXtream Programming (XP), Scrum, and Feature-Driven Development (FDD) from healthcare industry point of view and in comparison with the requirements of healthcare regulations. Finally, the authors propose an agile mixture model that consists of different practices from different agile methods. As result, the adoption rate of agile practices in healthcare industries still low and agile practices should enhance with regard to requirements of the healthcare regulations in order to be used in healthcare software development organizations. Therefore, the proposed agile mixture model may assist in minimizing the gaps existing between healthcare regulations and agile practices and increase the adoption rate in the healthcare industry. As this research paper part of the ongoing project, an evaluation of agile mixture model will be conducted in the near future.

Keywords: adoption of agile, agile gaps, agile mixture model, agile practices, healthcare regulations

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Authors: Taylor Harris

Abstract:

Gustilo-anderson grade III tibial fractures are exquisitely difficult injuries to manage as they require extensive soft tissue repair in addition to fracture fixation. These injuries are best managed collaboratively by Orthopedic and Plastic surgeons. While utilizing an Orthoplastics approach has decreased the rates of adverse outcomes in these injuries, there is a large amount of variation in exactly how an Orthoplastics team approaches complex cases such as these. It is sometimes recommended that definitive bone fixation and soft tissue coverage be completed simultaneously in a single-stage manner, but there is a paucity of large scale studies to provide evidence to support this recommendation. It is the aim of this study to report the outcomes of a single-stage "fix-and-flap" approach through a systematic review of the available literature. Hopefully, this better informs an evidence-based Orthoplastics approach to managing open tibial fractures. Systematic review of the literature was performed. Medline and Google Scholar were used and all studies published since 2000, in English were included. 103 studies were initially evaluated for inclusion. Reference lists of all included studies were also examined for potentially eligible studies. Gustilo grade III tibial shaft fractures in adults that were managed with a single-stage Orthoplastics approach were identified and evaluated with regard to outcomes of interest. Exclusion criteria included studies with patients <16 years old, case studies, systemic reviews, meta-analyses. Primary outcomes of interest were the rates of deep infections and rates of limb salvage. Secondary outcomes of interest included time to bone union, rates of non-union, and rates of re-operation. 15 studies were eligible. 11 of these studies reported rates of deep infection as an outcome, with rates ranging from 0.98%-20%. The pooled rate between studies was 7.34%. 7 studies reported rates of limb salvage with a range of 96.25%-100%. The pooled rate of the associated studies was 97.8%. 6 reported rates of non-union with a range of 0%-14%, a pooled rate of 6.6%. 6 reported time to bone union with a range of 24 to 40.3 weeks and a pooled average time of 34.2 weeks, and 4 reported rates of reoperation ranging from 7%-55%, with a pooled rate of 31.1%. A few studies that compared a single stage to a multi stage approach side-by-side unanimously favored the single stage approach. Outcomes of Gustilo grade III open tibial fractures utilizing an Orthoplastics approach that is specifically done in a single-stage produce low rates of adverse outcomes. Large scale studies of Orthoplastic collaboration that were not completed in strictly a single stage, or were completed in multiple stages, have not reported as favorable outcomes. We recommend that not only should Orthopedic surgeons and Plastic surgeons collaborate in the management of severe open tibial fracture, but they should plan to undergo definitive fixation and coverage in a single-stage for improved outcomes.

Keywords: orthoplastic, gustilo grade iii, single-stage, trauma, systematic review

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Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

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The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: thermo-mechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damage

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

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We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of real life data set.

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood

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Authors: João Paulo Pascon

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A constitutive model accounting for large strains, thermoviscoplasticity, and ductile damage evolution is proposed in the present work. To this end, a fully Lagrangian framework is employed, considering plane stress conditions and multiplicative split of the deformation gradient. The full model includes Gurson’s void growth, nucleation and coalescence, plastic work heating, strain and strain-rate hardening, thermal softening, and heat conductivity. The contribution of the work is the combination of all the above-mentioned features within the finite-strain setting. The model is implemented in a computer code using triangular finite elements and nonlinear analysis. Two mechanical examples involving ductile damage and finite strain levels are analyzed: an inhomogeneous tension specimen and the necking problem. Results demonstrate the capabilities of the developed formulation regarding ductile fracture and large deformations.

Keywords: ductile damage model, finite element method, large strains, thermoviscoplasticity

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: activity-based cost estimating, cost estimation, ETICS, life cycle costing

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to achieve, optimize and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~2000 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.8 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0, DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i-e, from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to 7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75% and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA & FNA, pH affect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model present relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, hetrotrophic denitritation

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Alain Villemeur

Abstract:

The relationships between the profit share in income on the one hand and the growth rates of output and employment on the other hand have been studied for 17 advanced economies since 1961. The vast majority (98%) of annual values for the profit share fall between 20% and 40%, with an average value of 33.9%. For the 17 advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product and productivity growth rates tend to fall as the profit share in income rises. For the employment growth rates, the relationships are complex; nevertheless, over long periods (1961-2000), it appears that the more job-creating economies are Australia, Canada, and the United States; they have experienced a profit share close to 1/3. This raises a number of questions, not least the value of 1/3 for the profit share and its role in macroeconomic fundamentals. To explain these facts, an endogenous growth model is developed. This growth and distribution model reconciles the great ideas of Kaldor (economic growth as a chain reaction), of Keynes (effective demand and marginal efficiency of capital) and of Ricardo (importance of the wage-profit distribution) in an economy facing creative destruction. A production function is obtained, depending mainly on the growth of employment, the rate of net investment and the profit share in income. In theory, we show the existence of incentives: an incentive for job creation when the profit share is less than 1/3 and another incentive for job destruction in the opposite case. Thus, increasing the profit share can boost the employment growth rate until it reaches the value of 1/3; otherwise lowers the employment growth rate. Three key findings can be drawn from these considerations. The first reveals that the best GDP and productivity growth rates are obtained with a profit share of less than 1/3. The second is that maximum job growth is associated with a 1/3 profit share, given the existence of incentives to create more jobs when the profit share is less than 1/3 or to destroy more jobs otherwise. The third is the decline in performance (GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate) when the profit share increases. In conclusion, increasing the profit share in income weakens GDP growth or productivity growth as a long-term trend, contrary to the trickle-down hypothesis. The employment growth rate is maximum for a profit share in income of 1/3. All these lessons suggest macroeconomic policies considering the profit share in income.

Keywords: advanced countries, GDP growth, employment growth, profit share, economic policies

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Authors: Mukesh Ranjan

Abstract:

Applying probit model on the micro data of NSS 71st round on education for understanding the access to education post the passage of Right to Education act,2009 in India. The empirical analysis shows that at all India level the mean age of enrollment in school is 5.5 years and drop-out age is around 14 years (or studied up to class 7) and around 60 percent females never get enrolled in any school in their lifetime. Nearly 20 percent children in Bihar never seen school and surprisingly, the relatively developed states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have more than one-third of the children and half of the children in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa as educationally wasted. The relative contribution in educational wastage is maximum by Bengal (10 %) while UP contributed a maximum of 30 % in educational non-enrollment in the country. Educational wastage is more likely to increase with age. Marriage is a resistive factor in getting education. Muslims are educationally more deprived than Hindus. Larger family and rich household are less likely to be educationally deprived. Major reasons for drop-out until 9 years were lack of interest in education and financial constraint; between 10-12 years, lack of interest and unable to cope up with studies and post 12 years financial constraint, marriage and other household reasons.

Keywords: probit model, educational wastage, educational non-enrollment, educational deprivation

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Authors: Esam I. Jassim

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate the prediction of the model capability of predicting the nucleation process, the growth rate, and the deposition potential of second phase particles in gas flowlines. The primary objective of the research is to predict the risk hazards involved in the marine transportation of compressed natural gas. However, the proposed model can be equally used for other applications including production and transportation of natural gas in any high-pressure flow-line. The proposed model employs the following three main components to approach the problem: computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique is used to configure the flow field; the nucleation model is developed and incorporated in the simulation to predict the incipient hydrate particles size and growth rate; and the deposition of the gas/particle flow is proposed using the concept of the particle deposition velocity. These components are integrated in a comprehended model to locate the hydrate deposition in natural gas flowlines. The present research is prepared to foresee the deposition location of solid particles that could occur in a real application in Compressed Natural Gas loading and offloading. A pipeline with 120 m length and different sizes carried a natural gas is taken in the study. The location of particle deposition formed as a result of restriction is determined based on the procedure mentioned earlier and the effect of water content and downstream pressure is studied. The critical flow speed that prevents such particle to accumulate in the certain pipe length is also addressed.

Keywords: hydrate deposition, compressed natural gas, marine transportation, oceanography

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Authors: Stephen Barnes, Ian Mills, Frances Cleary

Abstract:

Augmented and virtual reality-based applications offer many benefits for the heritage and tourism sector. This technology provides a platform to showcase the regions of interest to people without the need for them to be physically present, which has had a positive impact on enticing tourists to visit those locations. However, the technology also provides the opportunity to present historical artefacts in a form that accurately represents their original, intended appearance. Three sites of interest were identified in the Lingaun Valley in South East Ireland, wherein virtual representations of site-specific artefacts of interest were created via a multidisciplinary team encompassing archaeology, art history, 3D modelling, design, and software development. The collated information has been presented to users via an augmented reality mobile-based application that provides information in an engaging manner that encourages an interest in history as well as visits to the sites in the Lingaun Valley.

Keywords: augmented reality, virtual heritage, 3D modelling, archaeology, virtual representation

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Authors: Obiora E. Anisiji, Jeremiah L. Chukwuneke, Chinonso H. Achebe, Paul C. Okolie

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This work developed a mathematical model of a biogas plant from a mechanistic point of view, for urban area clean energy requirement. It aimed at integrating thermodynamics; which deals with the direction in which a process occurs and Biochemical kinetics; which gives the understanding of the rates of biochemical reaction. The mathematical formulation of the proposed gas plant follows the fundamental principles of thermodynamics, and further analysis were accomplished to develop an algorithm for evaluating the plant performance preferably in terms of daily production capacity. In addition, the capacity of the plant is equally estimated for a given cycle of operation and presented in time histories. A nominal 1500m3 biogas plant was studied characteristically and its performance efficiency evaluated. It was observed that the rate of biogas production is essentially a function of enthalpy ratio, the reactor temperature, pH, substrate concentration, rate of degradation of the biomass, and the accumulation of matter in the system due to bacteria growth. The results of this study conform to a very large extent with reported empirical data of some existing plant and further model validations were conducted in line with classical records found in literature.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas plant, biogas production, bio-reactor, energy, fermentation, rate of production, temperature, therm

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Souâad Boudebza, Omar Nouali, Faiçal Azouaou

Abstract:

Social networks have recently gained a growing interest on the web. Traditional formalisms for representing social networks are static and suffer from the lack of semantics. In this paper, we will show how semantic web technologies can be used to model social data. The SemTemp ontology aligns and extends existing ontologies such as FOAF, SIOC, SKOS and OWL-Time to provide a temporal and semantically rich description of social data. We also present a modeling scenario to illustrate how our ontology can be used to model social networks.

Keywords: ontology, semantic web, social network, temporal modeling

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Authors: Balarabe Z. Ahmad, Anne-Lorène Vernay

Abstract:

The emergence of electricity in Nigeria was dated back to 1896. The power plants have the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power. Whereas current dispatch is about 4,000 MW, access to electrification is about 60%, with consumption at 0.14 MWh/capita. The government embarked on energy reforms to mitigate energy poverty. The reform targeted the provision of electricity access to 75% of the population by 2020 and 90% by 2030. Growth of total electricity demand by a factor of 5 by 2035 had been projected. This means that Nigeria will require almost 530 TWh of electricity which can be delivered through generators with a capacity of 65 GW. Analogously, the geographical location of Nigeria has placed it in an advantageous position as the source of solar energy; the availability of a high sunshine belt is obvious in the country. The implication is that the far North, where energy poverty is high, equally has about twice the solar radiation as against southern Nigeria. Hence, the chance of generating solar electricity is 66% possible at 11850 x 103 GWh per year, which is one hundred times the current electricity consumption rate in the country. Harvesting these huge potentials may be a mirage if the entrepreneurs in the solar panel business are left with the conventional business models that are not uncertainty resilient. Currently, business entities in RE in Nigeria are uncertain of; accessing the national grid, purchasing potentials of cooperating organizations, currency fluctuation and interest rate increases. Uncertainties such as the security of projects and government policy are issues entrepreneurs must navigate to remain sustainable in the solar panel industry in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurial firms consider uncertainties in developing workable business models for commercializing solar energy projects in Nigeria. In an attempt to develop a novel business model, the paper investigated how entrepreneurial firms assess and navigate uncertainties. The roles of key stakeholders in helping entrepreneurs to manage uncertainties in the Nigeria RE sector were probed in the ongoing study. The study explored empirical uncertainties that are peculiar to RE entrepreneurs in Nigeria. A mixed-mode of research was embraced using qualitative data from face-to-face interviews conducted on the Solar Energy Entrepreneurs and the experts drawn from key stakeholders. Content analysis of the interview was done using Atlas. It is a nine qualitative tool. The result suggested that all stakeholders are required to synergize in developing an uncertainty resilient business model. It was opined that the RE entrepreneurs need modifications in the business recommendations encapsulated in the energy policy in Nigeria to strengthen their capability in delivering solar energy solutions to the yawning Nigerians.

Keywords: uncertainties, entrepreneurial, business model, solar-panel

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Authors: Suyeb Ahmed Khan, Mahmood Mian

Abstract:

Simulation plays an important role during all phases of the design and engineering of communications systems, from early stages of conceptual design through the various stages of implementation, testing, and fielding of the system. In the present paper, a simulation model has been constructed for the WCDMA system in order to evaluate the performance. This model describes multiusers effects and calculation of BER (Bit Error Rate) in 3G mobile systems using Simulink MATLAB 7.1. Gaussian Approximation defines the multi-user effect on system performance. BER has been analyzed with comparison between transmitting data and receiving data.

Keywords: WCDMA, simulations, BER, MATLAB

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Authors: Wong Hock Tsen

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export in Malaysia. The moving standard deviation with order three (MSD(3)) is used for the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The conventional and partially asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used in the estimations. This study finds exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total export and some sub-categories of real total export. Moreover, this study finds that the positive or negative exchange rate volatility tends to have positive or negative impact on real export. Exchange rate volatility can be harmful to export of Malaysia.

Keywords: exchange rate volatility, autoregressive distributed lag, export, Malaysia

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Authors: B. Padmaja, V. V. Rama Prasad, K. V. N. Sunitha, E. Krishna Rao Patro

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Stress is a psychological condition that reduces the quality of sleep and affects every facet of life. Constant exposure to stress is detrimental not only for mind but also body. Nevertheless, to cope with stress, one should first identify it. This paper provides an effective method for the cognitive stress level detection by using data provided from a physical activity tracker device Fitbit. This device gathers people’s daily activities of food, weight, sleep, heart rate, and physical activities. In this paper, four major stressors like physical activities, sleep patterns, working hours and change in heart rate are used to assess the stress levels of individuals. The main motive of this system is to use machine learning approach in stress detection with the help of Smartphone sensor technology. Individually, the effect of each stressor is evaluated using logistic regression and then combined model is built and assessed using variants of ordinal logistic regression models like logit, probit and complementary log-log. Then the quality of each model is evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and probit is assessed as the more suitable model for our dataset. This system is experimented and evaluated in a real time environment by taking data from adults working in IT and other sectors in India. The novelty of this work lies in the fact that stress detection system should be less invasive as possible for the users.

Keywords: physical activity tracker, sleep pattern, working hours, heart rate, smartphone sensor

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Authors: Dharamashi Rabari, Anand Patel

Abstract:

n-Butanol can be regarded as a potential biofuel. Being resistive to corrosion and having high calorific value, butanol is a very attractive energy source as opposed to ethanol. By fermentation process called ABE (acetone, butanol, ethanol), bio-butanol can be produced. ABE carried out mostly by bacteria Clostridium acetobutylicum. The major drawback of the process is the butanol concentration higher than 10 g/L, delays the growth of microbes resulting in a low yield. It indicates the simultaneous separation of butanol from the fermentation broth. Two hydrophobic Ionic Liquids (ILs) 1-butyl-1-methylpiperidinium bis (trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [bmPIP][Tf₂N] and 1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium bis (trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [hmim][Tf₂N] were chosen. The binary interaction parameters for both ternary systems i.e. [bmPIP][Tf₂N] + water + n-butanol and [hmim][Tf₂N] + water +n-butanol were taken from the literature that was generated by NRTL model. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) with the isothermal sum rate (ISR) method was used to optimize the cost of liquid-liquid extractor. For [hmim][Tf₂N] + water +n-butanol system, PSO shows 84% success rate with the number of stages equal to eight and solvent flow rate equal to 461 kmol/hr. The number of stages was three with 269.95 kmol/hr solvent flow rate for [bmPIP][Tf₂N] + water + n-butanol system. Moreover, both ILs were very efficient as the loss of ILs in raffinate phase was negligible.

Keywords: particle swarm optimization, isothermal sum rate method, success rate, extraction

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Authors: Racholsan Raj Nirmal, B. S. V. Patnaik, R. Jayaganthan

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The deformation behaviour of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy under low strains, high strain rates and elevated temperature conditions is essential to analyse and predict its response against dynamic loading such as impact and thermomechanical fatigue. The constitutive relation of Johnson-Cook is used to capture the strain rate sensitivity and thermal softening effect in AlSi10Mg alloy. Johnson-Cook failure model is widely used for exploring damage mechanics and predicting the fracture in many materials. In this present work, Johnson-Cook material and damage model parameters for additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy have been determined numerically from four types of uniaxial tensile test. Three different uniaxial tensile tests with dynamic strain rates (0.1, 1, 10, 50, and 100 s^-1) and elevated temperature tensile test with three different temperature conditions (450 K, 500 K and 550 K) were performed on 3D printed AlSi10Mg alloy in ABAQUS/Explicit. Hexahedral elements are used to discretize tensile specimens and fracture energy value of 43.6 kN/m was used for damage initiation. Levenberg Marquardt optimization method was used for the evaluation of Johnson-Cook model parameters. It was observed that additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy has shown relatively higher strain rate sensitivity and lower thermal stability as compared to the other Al alloys.

Keywords: ABAQUS, additive manufacturing, AlSi10Mg, Johnson-Cook model

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Valentina A. Mikhailova, Serguei V. Feskov, Anatoly I. Ivanov

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In the last decade the nonequilibrium charge transfer have attracted considerable interest from the scientific community. Examples of such processes are the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes and the intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state. In these reactions the charge transfer proceeds predominantly in the nonequilibrium mode. In the excited donor-acceptor complexes the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the pump pulse. The intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state is an example where the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the forward electron transfer. The kinetics of these nonequilibrium reactions demonstrate a number of peculiar properties. Most important from them are: (i) the absence of the Marcus normal region in the free energy gap law for the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (ii) extremely low quantum yield of thermalized charge separated state in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state, (iii) the nonexponential charge recombination dynamics in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (iv) the dependence of the charge transfer rate constant on the excitation pulse frequency. This report shows that most of these kinetic features can be well reproduced in the framework of stochastic point-transition multichannel model. The model involves an explicit description of the nonequilibrium excited state formation by the pump pulse and accounts for the reorganization of intramolecular high-frequency vibrational modes, for their relaxation as well as for the solvent relaxation. The model is able to quantitatively reproduce complex nonequilibrium charge transfer kinetics observed in modern experiments. The interpretation of the nonequilibrium effects from a unified point of view in the terms of the multichannel point transition stochastic model allows to see similarities and differences of electron transfer mechanism in various molecular donor-acceptor systems and formulates general regularities inherent in these phenomena. The nonequilibrium effects in photoinduced ultrafast charge transfer which have been studied for the last 10 years are analyzed. The methods of suppression of the ultrafast charge recombination, similarities and dissimilarities of electron transfer mechanism in different molecular donor-acceptor systems are discussed. The extremely low quantum yield of the thermalized charge separated state observed in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state in the complex consisting of 1,2,4-trimethoxybenzene and tetracyanoethylene in acetonitrile solution directly demonstrates that its effectiveness can be close to unity. This experimental finding supports the idea that the nonequilibrium charge recombination in the excited donor-acceptor complexes can be also very effective so that the part of thermalized complexes is negligible. It is discussed the regularities inherent to the equilibrium and nonequilibrium reactions. Their fundamental differences are analyzed. Namely the opposite dependencies of the charge transfer rates on the dynamical properties of the solvent. The increase of the solvent viscosity results in decreasing the thermal rate and vice versa increasing the nonequilibrium rate. The dependencies of the rates on the solvent reorganization energy and the free energy gap also can considerably differ. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 16-13-10122).

Keywords: Charge recombination, higher excited states, free energy gap law, nonequilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

Abstract:

Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 355