Search results for: hidden Markov Model

Authors: Jui-Ching Chou

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Numerical simulation is a popular method used to evaluate the effects of soil liquefaction on a structure or the effectiveness of a mitigation plan. Many constitutive models (UBCSAND model, PM4 model, SANISAND model, etc.) were presented to model the liquefaction phenomenon. In general, inputs of a constitutive model need to be calibrated against the soil cyclic resistance before being applied to the numerical simulation model. Then, simulation results can be compared with results from simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods. In this article, inputs of the UBCSAND model, a simple elastic-plastic stress-strain model, are calibrated against several popular generic liquefaction triggering curves of simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods via FLAC program. Calibrated inputs can provide engineers to perform a preliminary evaluation of an existing structure or a new design project.

Keywords: calibration, liquefaction, numerical simulation, UBCSAND Model

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Authors: Pontus Backstrom

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In the educational literature on peer effects, attention has been brought to the fact that the mechanisms creating peer effects are still to a large extent hidden in obscurity. The hypothesis in this study is that the Frame Factor Theory can be used to explain these mechanisms. At heart of the theory is the concept of “time needed” for students to learn a certain curricula unit. The relations between class-aggregated time needed and the actual time available, steers and hinders the actions possible for the teacher. Further, the theory predicts that the timing and pacing of the teachers’ instruction is governed by a “criterion steering group” (CSG), namely the pupils in the 10th-25th percentile of the aptitude distribution in class. The class composition hereby set the possibilities and limitations for instruction, creating peer effects on individual outcomes. To test if the theory can be applied to the issue of peer effects, the study employs multilevel structural equation modelling (M-SEM) on Swedish TIMSS 2015-data (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; students N=4090, teachers N=200). Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in the SEM-framework in MPLUS, latent variables are specified according to the theory, such as “limitations of instruction” from TIMSS survey items. The results indicate a good model fit to data of the measurement model. Research is still in progress, but preliminary results from initial M-SEM-models verify a strong relation between the mean level of the CSG and the latent variable of limitations on instruction, a variable which in turn have a great impact on individual students’ test results. Further analysis is required, but so far the analysis indicates a confirmation of the predictions derived from the frame factor theory and reveals that one of the important mechanisms creating peer effects in student outcomes is the effect the class composition has upon the teachers’ instruction in class.

Keywords: compositional effects, frame factor theory, peer effects, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

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Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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It is known that the most crucial influence of the psychological, social and emotional factors that affect any human behavior is to corrupt the rational decision making mechanism of the individuals and cause them to display irrational behaviors. In this regard, the social context of human beings influences the rationality of our decisions, and people tend to display different behaviors when they were alone compared to when they were surrounded by others. At this point, the interaction and interdependence of the behavioral finance and economics with the area of social psychology comes, where intentions and the behaviors of the individuals are being analyzed in the actual or implied presence of others comes into prominence. Within the context of this study, the prevalent theories of behavioral finance, which are The Prospect Theory, The Utility Theory Given Uncertainty and the Five Axioms of Choice under Uncertainty, Veblen’s Hidden Utility Theory, and the concept of ‘Overreaction’ has been examined and demonstrated; and the meaning, existence and validity of these theories together with the social context has been assessed. Finally, in this study the behavior of the individuals in financial crisis situations where the majority of the society is being affected from the same negative conditions at the same time has been analyzed, by taking into account how individual behavior will change according to the presence of the others.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

Procedia PDF Downloads 547

Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Timothy Kephart

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Many law enforcement officials believe that gangs communicate messages to both the community and to rival gangs through graffiti. Some social scientists have documented this as well, however no recent research has examined gang graffiti for its underlying meaning. Empirical research on gang graffiti and gang communication through graffiti is limited. This research can be described as an exploratory effort to better understand how, and perhaps why, gangs employ this medium for communication. Furthermore this research showcases how law enforcement agencies can utilize this hidden form of communication to better direct resources and impact gang violence.

Keywords: gangs, graffiti, juvenile justice, policing

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Authors: Ahmed Khalil, Elhamy Tarabees, Svetlana Kovacikova

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The Red Sea Mountains have been famous for their ore deposits since ancient times. Also, petrographic analysis and previous potential field surveys indicated large unexplored accumulations of ore minerals in the area. Therefore, the main goal of the presented study is to contribute to the discovery of hitherto unknown ore mineral deposits in the Red Sea region. To achieve this goal, we used two geophysical techniques: land magnetic survey and magnetotelluric data. A high-resolution land magnetic survey has been acquired using two proton magnetometers, one instrument used as a base station for the diurnal correction and the other used to measure the magnetic field along the study area. Two hundred eighty land magnetic stations were measured over a mesh-like area with a 500m spacing interval. The necessary reductions concerning daily variation, regional gradient and time observation were applied. Then, the total intensity anomaly map was constructed and transformed into the reduced magnetic pole (RTP). The magnetic interpretation was carried out using the analytical signal as well as regional–residual separation is carried out using the power spectrum. Also, the tilt derivative method (TDR) technique is applied to delineate the structure and hidden anomalies. Data analysis has been performed using trend analysis and Euler deconvolution. The results indicate that magnetic contacts are not the dominant geological feature of the study area. The magnetotleruric survey consisted of two profiles with a total of 8 broadband measurement points with a duration of about 24 hours crossing a wadi um Gheig approximately 50 km south of El Quseir. Collected data have been inverted to the electrical resistivity model using the 3D modular 3D inversion technique ModEM. The model revealed a non-conductive body in its central part, probably corresponding to a dolerite dyke, with which possible ore mineralization could be related.

Keywords: magnetic survey, magnetotelluric, mineralization, 3d modeling

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Mustafa Hyder, Shamaila Burney, Roohi Mumtaz

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The aim of this study is to determine the consequences of silent or hidden messages and their effectiveness in deteriorating or altering our ethical norms and values. The study also focuses the repercussions of subconscious messages and possibilities of ethical diffusion in our society. The research based on the question that what are the different factors that motivate advertisers to include subliminal messages and how much these unspoken truths affecting our ethical values silently. What are the causes and effects of the subliminal messages in general and the level of ethical diffusion and its acceptance? The concept of advertising is to promote and highlight the salient features of the products and services, a company offers. Advertising is the best option nowadays to convey the related information to the consumers so that they attracted more towards the products or services proposed. The other thing advertisers concentrate, is the psychological characteristics using to persuade consumers choice. Using skills and tactics of advertising to promote a product in such a way that it creates a sensation, controversy or brand consciousness among the consumers or customers. The purpose to have increase purchase or to gain popularity in comparison to their competitors, they sometimes use such tactics and techniques, which is highly unethical and immoral for any society. These kinds of stuff used very smartly within the ads that only the conscious mind subconsciously catches the meaning of those glittery images, posters, phrases, tag lines and non-verbal clues. This study elucidates the subliminal advertising their repercussions and impact on consumer’s behaviour in our society with the help of few ads embedded subliminally and the trends of profitability. The methods used to accomplish our research are based on qualitative research along with the research articles, books and feedback from focused groups regarding the topic. The basic objective of this study was that, there is no significant change in the behaviour and attitude observed. These messages capture very short-term life on the viewer’s subconscious mind but in long run people get used to it and hence not only have the diffusion power but also has the high level of acceptance as well that reflects mostly through their social behaviours and attitudes.

Keywords: ethical diffusion, subconscious, subliminal advertising, unspoken facts

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

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Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

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Authors: Li Zhou, Yanmei Fang

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With current technology, images and videos can be obtained more easily than ever. It is so easy to manipulate these digital multimedia information when obtained, and that the content or source of the image and video could be easily tampered. In this paper, we propose to identify the image and video frame by the texture-based approach, e.g. Markov Transition Probability (MTP), which is in space domain, DCT domain and DWT domain, respectively. In the experiment, image and video frame database is constructed, and is used to train and test the classifier Support Vector Machine (SVM). Experiment results show that the texture-based approach has good performance. In order to verify the experiment result, and testify the universality and robustness of algorithm, we build a random testing dataset, the random testing result is in keeping with above experiment.

Keywords: multimedia forensics, video frame, LBP, MTP, SVM

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar Mishra, Tarun Kumar Dan

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Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control method is proposed based on Internal Model Control (IMC) strategy. In this paper, we have designed the Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control for binary distillation column for SISO process (considering only bottom product). The transfer function has been taken from Wood and Berry model. We have find the composition control and disturbance rejection using Lead-Lag based IMC and comparing with the response of simple Internal Model Controller.

Keywords: SISO, lead-lag, internal model control, wood and berry, distillation column

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Authors: Isaiah Ifeanyichukwu Agbo

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Human speech is capable of serving many purposes. Power and control are not always exercised overtly by linguistic acts, but maybe enacted and exercised in the myriad of taken-for-granted actions of everyday life. Domination, power control, discrimination and mind control exist in human speech and may lead to asymmetrical power relations. In discourse, there are persuasive and manipulative linguistic acts that serve to establish solidarity and identification with the 'we group' and polarize with the 'they group'. Political discourse is crafted to defend and promote the problematic narrative of outright controversial events in a nation’s history thereby sustaining domination, marginalization, manipulation, inequalities and injustices, often without the dominated and marginalized group being aware of them. They are designed and positioned to serve the political and social needs of the producers. Political crisis speeches in Nigeria, just like in other countries concentrate on positive self-image, de-legitimization of political opponents, reframing accusation to one’s advantage, redefining problematic terms and adopting reversal strategy. In most cases, the people are ignorant of the hidden ideological positions encoded in the text. Few researches have been conducted adopting the frameworks of critical discourse analysis and systemic functional linguistics to investigate this situation in the political crisis speeches in Nigeria. In this paper, we focus attention on the analyses of the linguistic, semantic, and ideological elements in selected political crisis speeches in Nigeria to investigate if they create and sustain unequal power relations and manipulative tendencies from the perspectives of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) and Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL). Critical Discourse Analysis unpacks both opaque and transparent structural relationships of power dominance, power relations and control as manifested in language. Critical discourse analysis emerged from a critical theory of language study which sees the use of language as a form of social practice where social relations are reproduced or contested and different interests are served. Systemic function linguistics relates the structure of texts to their function. Fairclough’s model of CDA and Halliday’s systemic functional approach to language study are adopted in this paper. This paper probes into language use that perpetuates inequalities. This study demystifies the hidden implicature of the selected political crisis speeches and reveals the existence of information that is not made explicit in what the political actors actually say. The analysis further reveals the ideological configurations present in the texts. These ideological standpoints are the basis for naturalizing implicit ideologies and hegemonic influence in the texts. The analyses of the texts further uncovered the linguistic and discursive strategies deployed by text producers to manipulate the unsuspecting members of the public both mentally and conceptually in order to enact, sustain and maintain unhealthy power relations at crisis times in the Nigerian political history.

Keywords: critical discourse analysis, language, political crisis, power relations, systemic functional linguistics

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Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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It is known that in humans, the adaptation to a given odor occurs within a quite short span of time (typically one minute) after the odor is presented to the brain. Different models of human olfaction have been developed by scientists but none of these models consider the diffusion phenomenon in olfaction. A novel microscopic model of the human olfaction is presented in this paper. We develop this model by incorporating the transient diffusivity. In fact, the mathematical model is written based on diffusion of the odorant within the mucus layer. By the use of the model developed in this paper, it becomes possible to provide quantification of the objective strength of odor.

Keywords: diffusion, microscopic model, mucus layer, olfaction

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Authors: Abbas Mohamed Abbas, Raafat El-Shafie Fat-Helbary, Karrar Omar El Fergawy, Ahmed Hamed Sayed

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The exploration in archaeological area requires non-invasive methods, and hence the Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) technique is a proper candidate for this task. GPR investigation is widely applied for searching for hidden ancient targets. So, in this paper GPR technique has been used in archaeological investigation. The aim of this study was to obtain information about the subsurface and associated structures beneath two selected sites at the western bank of the River Nile at Aswan city. These sites have archaeological structures of different ages starting from 6thand 12th Dynasties to the Greco-Roman period. The first site is called Nag’ El Gulab, the study area was 30 x 16 m with separating distance 2m between each profile, while the second site is Nag’ El Qoba, the survey method was not in grid but in lines pattern with different lengths. All of these sites were surveyed by GPR model SIR-3000 with antenna 200 MHz. Beside the processing of each profile individually, the time-slice maps have been conducted Nag’ El Gulab site, to view the amplitude changes in a series of horizontal time slices within the ground. The obtained results show anomalies may interpret as presence of associated tombs structures. The probable tombs structures similar in their depth level to the opened tombs in the studied areas.

Keywords: ground penetrating radar, archeology, Nag’ El Gulab, Nag’ El Qoba

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

Abstract:

There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

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Authors: Zainab Magaji Musa, Nordin M. A. Rahman, Julaily Aida Jusoh

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The web services applications for digital reference service (WSDRS) of LIS model is an informal model that claims to reduce the problems of digital reference services in libraries. It uses web services technology to provide efficient way of satisfying users’ needs in the reference section of libraries. The formal WSDRS model consists of the Z specifications of all the informal specifications of the model. This paper discusses the formal validation of the Z specifications of WSDRS model. The authors formally verify and thus validate the properties of the model using Z/EVES theorem prover.

Keywords: validation, verification, formal, theorem prover

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Authors: Matthew C. Best

Abstract:

Linear Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic models can be identified, with no a priori knowledge of model structure or order, using a new Generalised Identifying Filter (GIF). Based on an Extended Kalman Filter, the new filter identifies the model iteratively, in a continuous modal canonical form, using only input and output time histories. The filter’s self-propagating state error covariance matrix allows easy determination of convergence and conditioning, and by progressively increasing model order, the best fitting reduced-order model can be identified. The method is shown to be resistant to noise and can easily be extended to identification of smoothly nonlinear systems.

Keywords: system identification, Kalman filter, linear model, MIMO, model order reduction

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Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

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Authors: Pengcheng Xiang Jr., Xueqing Sun, Dong Ngoduy

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In the context of rapid urbanization, urban sprawl has brought about extensive negative impacts on ecosystems and the environment, resulting in a gradual shift from "incremental growth" to ‘stock growth’ in cities. A detailed urban growth boundary is a prerequisite for urban renewal and management. This study takes Shenyang City, China, as the study area and evaluates the spatial distribution of urban spatial suitability in the study area from the perspective of spatial constraints-suitability using multi-source data and simulates the future rigid and elastic growth boundaries of the city in the study area using the CA-Markov model. The results show that (1) the suitable construction area and moderate construction area in the study area account for 8.76% and 19.01% of the total area, respectively, and the suitable construction area and moderate construction area show a trend of distribution from the urban centre to the periphery, mainly in Shenhe District, the southern part of Heping District, the western part of Dongling District, and the central part of Dadong District; (2) the area of expansion of construction land in the study area in the period of 2023-2030 is 153274.6977hm2, accounting for 44.39% of the total area of the study area; (3) the rigid boundary of the study area occupies an area of 153274.6977 hm2, accounting for 44.39% of the total area of the study area, and the elastic boundary of the study area contains an area of 75362.61 hm2, accounting for 21.69% of the total area of the study area. The study constructed a method for urban growth boundary delineation, which helps to apply remote sensing to guide future urban spatial growth management and urban renewal.

Keywords: urban growth boundary, spatial constraints, spatial suitability, urban sprawl

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Authors: D. Thawinkarn, S. Wongbutlee

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The Social Change Leadership model is strongly aligned with administration’s mission. This research aims to examine the elements of social change leadership, build and develop leadership for social change, and evaluate effectiveness of leadership development model for social change. The research operation has 3 phases: model studies by in-depth interviews and survey research; drafting and creating model which verified by the experts; and trial of model in schools. The results showed that administrators and teachers have the elements of leadership for social change in moderate level. These elements are ranged descending from consciousness of self, common purpose, congruence, collaboration, commitment, citizenship, and controversy with civility. Model of leadership for social change is included the principles, objectives, content, process. Workshop process: Results show that the model of leadership development for social change in administrators and teachers leads to higher score in leadership evaluation prior to administering the operation.

Keywords: leadership, social change model, organization, administrators

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