Search results for: fundamental risks

Authors: Jorge Gonzalez Camus, Valentin Keyantuo, Mahamadi Warma

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In this work, we obtain representation results for solutions of a time-fractional differential equation involving the discrete fractional Laplace operator in terms of generalized Wright functions. Such equations arise in the modeling of many physical systems, for example, chain processes in chemistry and radioactivity. The focus is on the linear problem of the simplified Moore - Gibson - Thompson equation, where the discrete fractional Laplacian and the Caputo fractional derivate of order on (0,2] are involved. As a particular case, we obtain the explicit solution for the discrete heat equation and discrete wave equation. Furthermore, we show the explicit solution for the equation involving the perturbed Laplacian by the identity operator. The main tool for obtaining the explicit solution are the Laplace and discrete Fourier transforms, and Stirling's formula. The methodology mainly is to apply both transforms in the equation, to find the inverse of each transform, and to prove that this solution is well defined, using Stirling´s formula.

Keywords: discrete fractional Laplacian, explicit representation of solutions, fractional heat and wave equations, fundamental

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Authors: T. J. Stepien, L. T. Stepien

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This abstract concerns an extremely fundamental issue. Namely, the fundamental problem of science is the issue of consistency. In this abstract, we present the theorem saying that the classical calculus of quantifiers is inconsistent in the traditional sense. At the beginning, we introduce a notation, and later we remind the definition of the consistency in the traditional sense. S1 is the set of all well-formed formulas in the calculus of quantifiers. RS1 denotes the set of all rules over the set S1. Cn(R, X) is the set of all formulas standardly provable from X by rules R, where R is a subset of RS1, and X is a subset of S1. The couple < R,X > is called a system, whenever R is a subset of RS1, and X is a subset of S1. Definition: The system < R,X > is consistent in the traditional sense if there does not exist any formula from the set S1, such that this formula and its negation are provable from X, by using rules from R. Finally, < R0+, L2 > denotes the classical calculus of quantifiers, where R0+ consists of Modus Ponens and the generalization rule. L2 is the set of all formulas valid in the classical calculus of quantifiers. The Main Result: The system < R0+, L2 > is inconsistent in the traditional sense.

Keywords: classical calculus of quantifiers, classical predicate calculus, generalization rule, consistency in the traditional sense, Modus Ponens

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Authors: Mamta Chandrashekhar

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Women’s participation in mainstream political and social activity has important implications for the broader arena of governance in any country. This research work will highlights some of the key issues that concerned with the impact of constitutional & Legal provision on the Indian women Status in present century. The principle of gender equality is enshrined in the Indian Constitution in its Preamble, Fundamental Rights, Fundamental Duties and Directive Principles. The Constitution not only grants equality to women, but also empowers the State to adopt measures of positive discrimination in favour of women. In recent years, the empowerment of women has been recognized as the central issue in determining the status of women. The main objective of this research is to analyzed the status of Indian women and the existing wide gap between the goals enunciated in the Constitution, legislation, policies, plans, programmes, and related mechanisms on the one hand and the situational reality of the status of women in India, This work encourage and inspire to women empowerment, will be beneficial to build a well-organized ideal society through Gender Equality and Development & Peace in the 21st century.

Keywords: awareness, constitution, development, empowerment

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Authors: Barry Aifesehi Aiworo, Henry Oriakhi

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This paper, examines the analysis of access pattern to school and travel risks among school children in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. The risk includes accident, molestation (sexually) and kidnapping. The objective of this paper are to examine the various means (modes) of transport to school; determine the type and incidences of risk experienced by school children in the study area; examine the risk incidences and ages of school children in the study area. Hypothesis which states that the types of risks encountered by school children are independent of means of transport was tested using the chi-square test (X2). A sampling ratio of twelve percent (12%) was taken from 396 schools in Benin City. By implication, 49 schools were randomly selected in Benin City for this research. A total of 42,053 students in the 49 schools constitute the sample frame for the research. Two percent (2%), 841 students were taken as the sample size. The use of stratified sampling method was applied by stratifying the study area (Benin City) into local governments- Egor, Ikpoba-Okha and Oredo. Thereafter, the lists of schools in the various local governments were obtained from the Ministry of Education before the schools for research were randomly chosen from each local government area. The analysis revealed that 6.7% of the total students interviewed have been involved in road accidents. 1.04% of the total respondents said at one time or the other that they have been kidnapped. Finally, the research found that travel is comparatively safe and believes this may be partly attributable to safer route to schools and school children being more familiar with the school journey. The research indicates that children aged between eleven and fifteen are most at risk of hit or knocked down on Benin City’s roads. These findings may help in planning and targeting road safety initiative (education, campaigns) in Benin City.

Keywords: accident, molestation (sexually), kidnapping, pedophile, pedestrian

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Authors: Siavash Soltani Hemmat

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Although 21st-century humanity is at the height of technology and has stepped toward the endless boundaries of knowledge, there are still people in many parts of the world who are deprived of even the most fundamental freedoms. Whereas without freedom, no possible meaning can be imagined for human life, none of the human talents will have the chance to flourish, and that man will be reduced to the level of an animal, removing the obstacles to human freedom, especially from the viewpoint of thoughts, is of utmost importance, in which the liberal ideas of the modern centuries have played an incomparable role. The aim of the present study is to introduce and explain the liberal ideas in the modern centuries and their role in the expansion of human freedoms in order to weaken and discredit the ideological and intellectual barriers to restricting the freedom of individuals and to pave the way for the liberation of humanity. A descriptive method has been employed in order to achieve the objectives of the research. Besides, for data collection, a library method has been conducted. In this study, three ideological teachings of the social contract , resistance against unjust governance and natural law were recognized as the foundations of the realization of fundamental freedoms of the people in the modern centuries and their content was explained and examined.

Keywords: freedom, natural law, social contract, resistance

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Authors: Devin Doos, Ashley Hughes, Trang Pham, Paul Barach, Rami Ahmed

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Over 115,000 Health Care Workers (HCWs) have died from COVID-19, and millions have been infected while caring for patients. HCWs have filed thousands of safety complaints surrounding safety concerns due to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) shortages, which included concerns around inadequate and PPE reuse. Protocols for donning and doffing PPE remain ambiguous, lacking an evidence-base, and often result in wide deviations in practice. PPE donning and doffing protocol deviations commonly result in self-contamination but have not been thoroughly addressed. No evidence-driven protocols provide guidance on protecting HCW during periods of PPE reuse. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine safety-related threats and risks to Health Care Workers (HCWs) due to the reuse of PPE among Emergency Department personnel. Method: We conducted a prospective observational study to examine the risks of reusing PPE. First, ED personnel were asked to don and doff PPE in a simulation lab. Each participant was asked to don and doff PPE five times, according to the maximum reuse recommendation set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Each participant was videorecorded; video recordings were reviewed and coded independently by at least 2 of the 3trained coders for safety behaviors and riskiness of actions. A third coder was brought in when the agreement between the 2 coders could not be reached. Agreement between coders was high (81.9%), and all disagreements (100%) were resolved via consensus. A bowtie risk assessment chart was constructed analyzing the factors that contribute to increased risks HCW are faced with due to PPE use and reuse. Agreement amongst content experts in the field of Emergency Medicine, Human Factors, and Anesthesiology was used to select aspects of health care that both contribute and mitigate risks associated with PPE reuse. Findings: Twenty-eight clinician participants completed five rounds of donning/doffing PPE, yielding 140 PPE donning/doffing sequences. Two emerging threats were associated with behaviors in donning, doffing, and re-using PPE: (i) direct exposure to contaminant, and (ii) transmission/spread of contaminant. Protective behaviors included: hand hygiene, not touching the patient-facing surface of PPE, and ensuring a proper fit and closure of all PPE materials. 100% of participants (n= 28) deviated from the CDC recommended order, and most participants (92.85%, n=26) self-contaminated at least once during reuse. Other frequent errors included failure to tie all ties on the PPE (92.85%, n=26) and failure to wash hands after a contamination event occurred (39.28%, n=11). Conclusions: There is wide variation and regular errors in how HCW don and doffPPE while including in reusing PPE that led to self-contamination. Some errors were deemed “recoverable”, such as hand washing after touching a patient-facing surface to remove the contaminant. Other errors, such as using a contaminated mask and accidentally spreading to the neck and face, can lead to compound risks that are unique to repeated PPE use. A more comprehensive understanding of the contributing threats to HCW safety and complete approach to mitigating underlying risks, including visualizing with risk management toolsmay, aid future PPE designand workflow and space solutions.

Keywords: bowtie analysis, health care, PPE reuse, risk management

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Authors: Hammadi Larbi

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The treatment of wastewater in sewage plants usually results in the formation of a large amount of sludge. These appear at the outlet of the treatment plant as a viscous fluid loaded with a high concentration of dry matter. This sludge production presents environmental, ecological, and economic risks. That is why it is necessary to find many solutions for minimizing these risks. In the present article, the effect of hydrogen peroxide, thermal treatment, and quicklime on the characteristics of the activated sludge produced in urban wastewater plant were evaluated in order to avoid any risk in the plants. The study shows increasing of the dose of H2O2 from 0 to 0.4 g causes an increase in the solubilization rate of COD from 12% to 45% and a reduction in the organic matter content of sludge (VM/SM) from 74% to 36% . The results also show that the optimum efficiency of the heat treatment corresponds to a temperature of 80 ° C for a treatment time of 40 min is 47% and 51.82% for a temperature equal to 100 ° C and 76.30 % for a temperature of 120 ° C, and 79.38% for a temperature of 140 ° C. The treatment of sludge by quicklime gives the optimum efficiency of 70.62 %. It was shown the increasing of the temperature from 80°C to 140°C, the pH of sludge was increased from 7.12 to 9.59. The obtained results showed that with increasing the dose of quicklime from 0 g/l to 1g/l in activated sludge led to an increase of their pH from 7.12 to 12.06. The study shows the increasing the dose of quicklime from 0 g/l to 1g/l causes also an increase in the solubilization of COD from 0% to 70.62 %

Keywords: activated sludge, hydrogen peroxide, thermal treatment, quicklime

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Authors: Brendan Mooney

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We often do not consider the quality of the way we express ourselves as being fundamental to well-being. Society focuses predominantly on what we do, not the way we do it, to our great detriment. For example, those who have experienced domestic violence often comment that it was not what was said that hurt the most but the way it was said. In other words, the quality in the way the words were used communicated far more than the actual words themselves. This is an important area of focus for practitioners who may be inclined to emphasize who said what but not bring equal, if not more, focus to the quality of one’s expression. The aim of this study is to highlight how and why the way we express ourselves is more important than what we express, which includes words and all behaviors. Given we are a sensitive species it matters to pay attention to the communication that is not said. For example, we have the ability to recognize that a person is upset or angry by the way they walk into a room, even if they do not say anything or look at anyone. Our sensitivity allows us to detect even the slightest change in another’s emotional state, irrespective of what their exterior behaviors may be exhibiting. This study will focus on the importance of recognizing the quality in the way we express as being fundamental to wellbeing, as it allows us to easily and simply navigate life and relationships without needing to experience the usual pitfalls that otherwise prevail. This research utilizes clinical experience, client observations and client feedback, and several case studies were utilized to illustrate real-life examples of the above. This study is not so much a model of life but a way of life that confirms our deepest nature, that we are incredibly sensitive and far more so than we appreciate or utilize in everyday practical human life.

Keywords: communication, integrity, quality, sensitivity, wellbeing

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Authors: Rassima Salimbayeva, Kaliash Stamkulova, Gulparshyn Satbayeva

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In order to adapt projects to promote Sustainable Development Goal 11. «Ensuring openness, security, resilience and environmental sustainability of cities and human settlements», presented in the UN Concept, it is necessary to assess the environmental sustainability of cities. From the analysis of the problems of sustainable development of cities in Kazakhstan, it can be seen that the industrial past created a typical range of problems -transport, housing, environment, and, importantly, image. Currently, the issue of air pollution in cities whose economies are dominated by one industry or company should be studied in more detail at the level of projects. In this research, using ecological, economic, and social indicators of five single-industry towns of the Karaganda region of Kazakhstan, an assessment of the risks of the negative impact of environmental factors on the health of the population was carried out, including by paying special attention to air quality. In order to investigate the relationship between the structure of industry, environmental pressure, and environmental sustainability of resource-oriented cities, an analysis of the main components was carried out to measure the structure of industry, environmental stress, and environmental sustainability of single-industry towns. It has been established that in resource-based cities, economic growth mainly depends on the development of one main industry, which primarily depends on local natural resources. Empirical results show that the regional structure of industry has a significant negative impact on the environmental sustainability of cities, in particular on the health of the population living in them. The paper complements the study of the theory of urban sustainability and clarifies the relationship between industrial structure and environmental pressure on health safety and environmental sustainability of cities and towns, which is crucial for further promoting the "green" development of single-industry towns based on natural resources.

Keywords: public health risks, urban sustainability, suspended solids, single-industry towns, atmospheric air, environmental pollution

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Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

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Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

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Authors: Iyd Eqqab Maree, Habil Jurgen Bast

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Vibration control of machines and structures incorporating viscoelastic materials in suitable arrangement is an important aspect of investigation. The use of viscoelastic layers constrained between elastic layers is known to be effective for damping of flexural vibrations of structures over a wide range of frequencies. The energy dissipated in these arrangements is due to shear deformation in the viscoelastic layers, which occurs due to flexural vibration of the structures. Multilayered cantilever sandwich beam like structures can be used in aircrafts and other applications such as robot arms for effective vibration control. These members may experience parametric instability when subjected to time dependant forces. The theory of dynamic stability of elastic systems deals with the study of vibrations induced by pulsating loads that are parametric with respect to certain forms of deformation. The purpose of the present work is to investigate the dynamic stability of a three layered symmetric sandwich beam (Drone Aircraft wings ) subjected to an end periodic axial force . Equations of motion are derived using finite element method (MATLAB software). It is observed that with increase in core thickness parameter fundamental buckling load increases. The fundamental resonant frequency and second mode frequency parameter also increase with increase in core thickness parameter. Fundamental loss factor and second mode loss factor also increase with increase in core thickness parameter. Increase in core thickness parameter enhances the stability of the beam. With increase in core loss factor also the stability of the beam enhances. There is a very good agreement of the experimental results with the theoretical findings.

Keywords: steel cantilever beam, viscoelastic material core, loss factor, transition region, MATLAB R2011a

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Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

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It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Sabina Chytilová, Josef Navrátil

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Emergency management is a discipline of dealing with and avoiding risks. Appropriate emergency management software allows better management of these risks and has a direct influence on reducing potential negative impacts. Although there are several emergency management software products in the Czech Republic, they cover user requirements from the emergency management field only partially. Therefore, the paper focuses on the issues of requirement analysis within development of emergency management software. Analysis of the current state describes the basic features and properties of user requirements for software development as well as basic methods and approaches for gathering these requirements. Then, the paper presents more specific mechanisms for requirement analysis based on chosen software development approach: structured, object-oriented or agile. Based on these experiences it is designed new methodology for requirement analysis. Methodology describes how to map user requirements comprehensively in the field of emergency management and thus reduce misunderstanding between software analyst and emergency manager. Proposed methodology was consulted with department of fire brigade and also has been applied in the requirements analysis for their current emergency management software. The proposed methodology has general character and can be used also in other specific areas during requirement analysis.

Keywords: emergency software, methodology, requirement analysis, stakeholders, use case diagram, user stories

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Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

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Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

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Authors: Hernani Brinati, Mardel de Conti, Moyses Szajnbok, Valentina Domiciano

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This study brings a mathematical model and examples for the numerical prediction of submersible maneuvers in the horizontal and in the vertical planes. The geometry of the submarine is here taken as a body of revolution plus a sail, two horizontal and two vertical rudders. The model includes the representation of the hull resistance and of the propeller thrust and torque, what enables to consider the variation of the longitudinal component of the velocity of the ship when maneuvering. The hydrodynamic forces are represented through power series expansions of the acceleration and velocity components. The hydrodynamic derivatives for the body of revolution are mostly estimated based on fundamental principles applicable to the flow around airplane fuselages in the subsonic regime. The hydrodynamic forces for the sail and rudders are estimated based on a finite aspect ratio wing theory. The objective of this study is to build an expedite model for submarine maneuvers prediction, based on fundamental principles, which may be convenient in the early stages of the ship design. This model is tested against available numerical and experimental data.

Keywords: submarine maneuvers, submarine, maneuvering, dynamics

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: David Cobham

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In higher education, a great degree of importance is placed on the internationalization of the student experience. This is seen as a valuable contributor to elements such as building confidence, broadening knowledge, creating networks and connections, and enhancing employability for current students who will become the next generation of managers in technology and business. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of people’s lives. The limitations of travel coupled with the fears and concerns generated by the health risks have dramatically reduced the opportunity for students to engage with this agenda. Institutions of higher education have been required to rethink fundamental aspects of their business model from recruitment and enrolment through learning approaches, assessment methods, and the pathway to employment. This paper presents a case study which focuses on student mobility and how the physical experience of being in another country, either to study, to work, to volunteer or to gain cultural and social enhancement, has of necessity been replaced by alternative approaches. It considers trans-national education as an alternative to physical study overseas, virtual mobility and internships as an alternative to international work experience, and adopting collaborative online projects as an alternative to in-person encounters. The paper concludes that although these elements have been adopted to address the current situation, the lessons learned and the feedback gained suggests that they have contributed successfully in new and sometimes unexpected ways and that they will persist beyond the present to become part of the 'new normal' for the future. That being the case, senior leaders of institutions of higher education will be required to revisit their international plans and to rewrite their international strategies to take account of and build upon these changes.

Keywords: higher education management, internationalization, transnational education, virtual mobility

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Authors: Michel Soto Chalhoub

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Building code-related literature provides recommendations on normalizing approaches to the calculation of the dynamic properties of structures. Most building codes make a distinction among types of structural systems, construction material, and configuration through a numerical coefficient in the expression for the fundamental period. The period is then used in normalized response spectra to compute base shear. The typical parameter used in simplified code formulas for the fundamental period is overall building height raised to a power determined from analytical and experimental results. However, reinforced concrete buildings which constitute the majority of built space in less developed countries pose additional challenges to the ones built with homogeneous material such as steel, or with concrete under stricter quality control. In the present paper, the particularities of reinforced concrete buildings are explored and related to current methods of equivalent static analysis. A comparative study is presented between the Uniform Building Code, commonly used for buildings within and outside the USA, and data from the Middle East used to model 151 reinforced concrete buildings of varying number of bays, number of floors, overall building height, and individual story height. The fundamental period was calculated using eigenvalue matrix computation. The results were also used in a separate regression analysis where the computed period serves as dependent variable, while five building properties serve as independent variables. The statistical analysis shed light on important parameters that simplified code formulas need to account for including individual story height, overall building height, floor plan, number of bays, and concrete properties. Such inclusions are important for reinforced concrete buildings of special conditions due to the level of concrete damage, aging, or materials quality control during construction. Overall results of the present analysis show that simplified code formulas for fundamental period and base shear may be applied but they require revisions to account for multiple parameters. The conclusion above is confirmed by the analytical model where fundamental periods were computed using numerical techniques and eigenvalue solutions. This recommendation is particularly relevant to code upgrades in less developed countries where it is customary to adopt, and mildly adapt international codes. We also note the necessity of further research using empirical data from buildings in Lebanon that were subjected to severe damage due to impulse loading or accelerated aging. However, we excluded this study from the present paper and left it for future research as it has its own peculiarities and requires a different type of analysis.

Keywords: seismic behaviour, reinforced concrete, simplified code formulas, equivalent static analysis, base shear, response spectra

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Authors: Gergely G. Karacsony

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Fundamental rights are the result of thousand years’ progress of legislation, adjudication and legal practice. They serve as the framework of peaceful cohabitation of people, protecting the individual from any abuse by the government or violation by other people. Artificial intelligence, however, is the development of the very recent past, being one of the most important prospects to the future. Artificial intelligence is now capable of communicating and performing actions the same way as humans; such acts are sometimes impossible to tell from actions performed by flesh-and-blood people. In a world, where human-robot interactions are more and more common, a new framework of peaceful cohabitation is to be found. Artificial intelligence, being able to take part in almost any kind of interaction where personal presence is not necessary without being recognized as a non-human actor, is now able to break the law, violate people’s rights, and disturb social peace in many other ways. Therefore, a code of peaceful coexistence is to be found or created. We should consider the issue, whether human rights can serve as the code of ethical and rightful conduct in the new era of artificial intelligence and human coexistence. In this paper, we will examine the applicability of fundamental rights to human-robot interactions as well as to the actions of artificial intelligence performed without human interaction whatsoever. Robot ethics has been a topic of discussion and debate of philosophy, ethics, computing, legal sciences and science fiction writing long before the first functional artificial intelligence has been introduced. Legal science and legislation have approached artificial intelligence from different angles, regulating different areas (e.g. data protection, telecommunications, copyright issues), but they are only chipping away at the mountain of legal issues concerning robotics. For a widely acceptable and permanent solution, a more general set of rules would be preferred to the detailed regulation of specific issues. We argue that human rights as recognized worldwide are able to be adapted to serve as a guideline and a common basis of coexistence of robots and humans. This solution has many virtues: people don’t need to adjust to a completely unknown set of standards, the system has proved itself to withstand the trials of time, legislation is easier, and the actions of non-human entities are more easily adjudicated within their own framework. In this paper we will examine the system of fundamental rights (as defined in the most widely accepted source, the 1966 UN Convention on Human Rights), and try to adapt each individual right to the actions of artificial intelligence actors; in each case we will examine the possible effects on the legal system and the society of such an approach, finally we also examine its effect on the IT industry.

Keywords: human rights, robot ethics, artificial intelligence and law, human-robot interaction

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Authors: Samuel Mwangi, Josephine K. Mule

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Access control as a security technique regulates who or what can access resources. It is a fundamental concept in security that minimizes risks to the institutions that use access control. Regulating access to institutions of higher learning is key to ensure only authorized personnel and students are allowed into the institutions. The use of biometrics has been criticized due to the setup and maintenance costs, hygiene concerns, and trepidations regarding data privacy, among other apprehensions. Facial recognition is arguably a fast and accurate way of validating identity in order to guard protected areas. It guarantees that only authorized individuals gain access to secure locations while requiring far less personal information whilst providing an additional layer of security beyond keys, fobs, or identity cards. This exploratory study sought to investigate the use of facial recognition in controlling access in institutions of higher learning in Kenya. The sample population was drawn from both private and public higher learning institutions. The data is based on responses from staff and students. Questionnaires were used for data collection and follow up interviews conducted to understand responses from the questionnaires. 80% of the sampled population indicated that there were many security breaches by unauthorized people, with some resulting in terror attacks. These security breaches were attributed to stolen identity cases, where staff or student identity cards were stolen and used by criminals to access the institutions. These unauthorized accesses have resulted in losses to the institutions, including reputational damages. The findings indicate that security breaches are a major problem in institutions of higher learning in Kenya. Consequently, access control would be beneficial if employed to curb security breaches. We suggest the use of facial recognition technology, given its uniqueness in identifying users and its non-repudiation capabilities.

Keywords: facial recognition, access control, technology, learning

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Authors: Arsalan Memon

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There are many challenges that a caregiver faces in average everyday life. One such challenge is coping with the stress and negative emotions of caregiving. The Stoics (i.e. Lucius Annaeus Seneca [4 B.C.E. - 65 C.E.], Epictetus [50-135 C.E.], and Marcus Aurelius [121-180 C.E.]) have provided coping techniques that are useful for dealing with stress and negative emotions. This paper lists and explains some of the fundamental coping techniques provided by the Stoics. For instance, some Stoic coping techniques thus follow (the list is far from exhaustive): a) mindfulness: to the best of your ability, constantly being aware of your thoughts, habits, desires, norms, memories, likes/dislikes, beliefs, values, and of everything outside of you in the world (b) constantly adjusting one’s expectations in accordance with reality, c) memento mori: constantly reminding oneself that death is inevitable and that death is not to be seen as evil, and d) praemeditatio malorum: constantly detaching oneself from everything that is so dear to one so that the least amount of suffering follows from the loss, damage, or ceasing to be of such entities. All coping techniques will be extracted from the following original texts by the Stoics: Seneca’s Letters to Lucilius, Epictetus’ Discourses and the Encheiridion, and Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations. One major finding is that the usefulness of each Stoic coping technique can be empirically tested by anyone in the sense of applying it one’s own life especially when one is facing real-life challenges. Another major finding is that all of the Stoic coping techniques are predicated upon, and follow from, one fundamental principle: constantly differentiate what is and what is not in one’s control. After differentiating it, one should constantly habituate oneself in not controlling things that are beyond one’s control. For example, the following things are beyond one’s control (all things being equal): death, certain illnesses, being born in a particular socio-economic family, etc. The conclusion is that if one habituates oneself by practicing to the best of one’s ability both the fundamental Stoic principle and the Stoic coping techniques, then such a habitual practice can eventually decrease the stress and negative emotions that one experiences by being a caregiver.

Keywords: care-giving, coping techniques, negative emotions, stoicism, stress

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Authors: Dennis Schmickle

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Introductory statement: Augmented reality (AR) can be used to breathe life into traditional graphic design media, such as posters, book covers, and album art. AR superimposes a unique image/video on a user’s view of the real world, which makes it more immersive and realistic than traditional 2D media. This study developed a series of projects that utilize both traditional and AR media to teach the fundamental principles of graphic design. The results of this study suggest that AR can be an effective tool for teaching graphic design. Abstract: Traditional graphic design media, such as posters, book covers, and album art, could be considered to be “old media.” However, augmented reality (AR) can breathe life into these formats by making them more interactive and engaging for students and audiences alike. AR is a technology that superimposes a computer-generated image on a user’s view of the real world. This allows users to interact with digital content in a way that is more immersive and interactive than traditional 2D media. AR is becoming increasingly popular, as more and more people have access to smartphones and other devices that can support AR experiences. This study is comprised of a series of projects that utilize both traditional and AR media to teach the fundamental principles of graphic design. In these projects, students learn to create traditional design objects, such as posters, book covers, and album art. However, they are also required to create an animated version of their design and to use AR software to create an AR experience with which viewers can interact. The results of this study suggest that AR can be an effective and exciting tool for teaching graphic design. The students who participated in the study were able to learn the fundamental principles of graphic design, and they also developed the skills they need to create effective AR content. This study has implications for the future of graphic design education. As AR becomes more popular, it is likely that it will become an increasingly important tool for teaching graphic design.

Keywords: graphic design, augmented reality, print media, new media, AR, old media

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Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter

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Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.

Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import

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Authors: Donatus Otuiheoma Ohajianya, Augusta Onyekachi Unamba

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This study analyzed risk among poultry farm enterprises in Imo State of Nigeria. Specifically, it examined sources of risks, the major risks associated with poultry farm enterprise, and the risk-reducing strategies among the poultry farm enterprises in the study area. Primary data collected in 2015 with validated questionnaire from 120 proportionately and randomly selected poultry farm enterprises were used for the study. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and W-Statistic that was validated with Pearson Criterion (X2). The results showed that major risk sources affecting poultry farm enterprises were production, marketing, financial and political in that order. The results found a W-Statistic value of 0.789, which was verified by Pearson Criterion to obtain X2-Calculated value of 4.65 which is lower that X2-Critical value of 11.07 at 5% significant level. The risk-reducing strategies were found to be diversification, savings, co-operative marketing, borrowing, and insurance. It was recommended that government and donor agencies should make policies aimed at encouraging poultry farm enterprises adopt the highlighted risk-reducing strategies in risk management to improve their productivity and farm income.

Keywords: risk, measurement, management, poultry farm, Imo State

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Sumohon Matilal, Neveen Abdelrehim

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The purpose of this study is to examine the way households manage the risks of civil war, using the calculative practices of accounting as a lens. As is the case with other social phenomena, accounting serves as a conduit for attributing values and rationales to crisis and in the process makes it visible and calculable. Our focus, in particular, is on the dialogue facilitated by the numerical logic of accounting between the householder and a crisis scenario, such as civil war. In other words, we seek to study how the risk of war is rationalized through household budgets, income and expenditure statements etc. and how such accounting constructs in turn shape attitudes toward earnings and spending in a wartime economy. The existing literature on war and accounting demonstrates how an accounting logic can have potentially destabilising consequences and how it is used to legitimise war. However, very few scholars have looked at the way accounting constructs are used to internalise the effects of war in an average household and the behavioural consequences that arise from such accounting. Relatedly, scholars studying household accounting have mostly focussed on the links between gender and hierarchy in relation to managing the financial affairs. Few have focused on the role of household accounts in a crisis scenario. This study intends to fill this gap. We draw upon Egypt, a country in the middle of civil war since 2011 for our purpose. We intend to carry out 15-20 semi-structured interviews with middle income households in Cairo that maintain some form of accounts to study the following issues: 1. How do people internalise the risks of civil war? What kind of accounting constructs do they use (this may take the form of simple budgets, income-expenditure notes/statements on a periodic basis, spreadsheets etc.) 2. How has civil war affected household expenditure? Are people spending more/less than before? 3. How has civil war affected household income? Are people finding it difficult/easy to survive on the pre-war income? 4. How is such accounting affecting household behaviour towards earnings and expenditure? Are families prioritising expenditure on necessities alone? Are they refraining from indulging in luxuries? Are family members doing two or three jobs to cope with difficult times? Are families increasingly turning toward borrowing? Is credit available? From whom?

Keywords: risk, accounting, war, crisis

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-topsis, fuzzy set, flight data monitoring (FDM), flight safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 168