Search results for: fire risk assessment

Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Akram Mahdaviparsa, Tamera McCuen, Vahideh Karimimansoob

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Fire service is responsible for protecting life, assets, and natural resources from fire and other hazardous incidents. Search and rescue in unfamiliar buildings is a vital part of firefighters’ responsibilities. Providing firefighters with precise building information in an easy-to-understand format is a potential solution for mitigating the negative consequences of fire hazards. The negative effect of insufficient knowledge about a building’s indoor environment impedes firefighters’ capabilities and leads to lost property. A data rich building information modeling (BIM) is a potentially useful source in three-dimensional (3D) visualization and data/information storage for fire emergency response. Therefore, this research’s purpose is prioritizing the required information for firefighters from the most important information to the least important. A survey was carried out with firefighters working in the Norman Fire Department to obtain the importance of each building information item. The results show that “the location of exit doors, windows, corridors, elevators, and stairs”, “material of building elements”, and “building data” are the three most important information specified by firefighters. The results also implied that the 2D model of architectural, structural and way finding is more understandable in comparison with the 3D model, while the 3D model of MEP system could convey more information than the 2D model. Furthermore, color in visualization can help firefighters to understand the building information easier and quicker. Sufficient internal consistency of all responses was proven through developing the Pearson Correlation Matrix and obtaining Cronbach’s alpha of 0.916. Therefore, the results of this study are reliable and could be applied to the population.

Keywords: BIM, building fire response, ranking, visualization

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Arianna Nativio, Zoran Kapelan, Jan Peter van der Hoek

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Bio-composite materials are becoming increasingly popular in various applications, such as the automotive industry. Usually, bio-composite materials are made from natural resources recovered from plants, now, a new type of bio-composite material has begun to be produced in the Netherlands. This material is made from resources recovered from drinking water treatments (calcite), wastewater treatment (cellulose), and material from surface water management (aquatic plants). Surface water, raw drinking water, and wastewater can be contaminated with pathogens and chemical compounds. Therefore, it would be valuable to develop a framework to assess, monitor, and control the potential risks. Indeed, the goal is to define the major risks in terms of human health, quality of materials, and environment associated with the production and application of these new materials. This study describes the general risk assessment framework, starting with a qualitative risk assessment. The qualitative risk analysis was carried out by using the HAZOP methodology for the hazard identification phase. The HAZOP methodology is logical and structured and able to identify the hazards in the first stage of the design when hazards and associated risks are not well known. The identified hazards were analyzed to define the potential associated risks, and then these were evaluated by using the qualitative Event Tree Analysis. ETA is a logical methodology used to define the consequences for a specific hazardous incidents, evaluating the failure modes of safety barriers and dangerous intermediate events that lead to the final scenario (risk). This paper shows the effectiveness of combining of HAZOP and qualitative ETA methodologies for hazard identification and risk mapping. Then, key risks were identified, and a quantitative framework was developed based on the type of risks identified, such as QMRA and QCRA. These two models were applied to assess human health risks due to the presence of pathogens and chemical compounds such as heavy metals into the bio-composite materials. Thus, due to these contaminations, the bio-composite product, during its application, might release toxic substances into the environment leading to a negative environmental impact. Therefore, leaching tests are going to be planned to simulate the application of these materials into the environment and evaluate the potential leaching of inorganic substances, assessing environmental risk.

Keywords: bio-composite, risk assessment, water reuse, resource recovery

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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Authors: Krzysztof Plesiewicz, Izabela Plesiewicz, Krzysztof Chiżyński, Marzenna Zielińska

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Background: Obesity is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. There are several anthropometric parameters proposed to estimate the level of obesity, but until now there is no agreement which one is the best predictor of cardiometabolic risk. Scientists defined metabolically obese normal weight, who suffer from metabolic abnormalities, the same as obese individuals, and defined this syndrome as normal weight obesity (NWO). Aim of the study: The aim of our study was to determine the occurrence of overweight and obesity in a cohort of young, adult women, using standard and complementary methods of obesity assessment and to indicate those, who are at risk of obesity. The second aim of our study was to test additional methods of obesity assessment and proof that body mass index using alone is not sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. Materials and methods: 384 young women, aged 18-32, were enrolled into the study. Standard anthropometric parameters (waist to hips ratio (WTH), waist to height ratio (WTHR)) and two other methods of body fat percentage measurement (BFPM) were used in the study: electrical bioimpendance analysis (BIA) and skinfold measurement test by digital fat body mass clipper (SFM). Results: In the study group 5% and 7% of participants had waist to hips ratio and accordingly waist to height ratio values connected with visceral obesity. According to BMI 14% participants were overweight and obese. Using additional methods of body fat assessment, there were 54% and 43% of obese for BIA and SMF method. In the group of participants with normal BMI and underweight (not overweight, n =340) there were individuals with the level of BFPM above the upper limit, for the BIA 49% (n =164) and for the SFM 36 % (n=125). Statistical analysis revealed strong correlation between BIA and SFM methods. Conclusion: BMI using alone is not a sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. High percentage of young women with normal BMI values seem to be normal weight obese.

Keywords: electrical bioimpedance, normal weight obesity, skin-fold measurement test, women

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Authors: Alma Shehu, Majlinda Vasjari, Sonila Duka, Loreta Vallja, Nevila Broli

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Humans consume drinking water from several sources, including tap water, bottled water, natural springs, filtered tap water, etc. The quality of drinking water is crucial for human survival given the fact that the consumption of contaminated drinking water is related to many diseases and deaths all over the world. This study represents the investigation of the quality and health risks of different types of drinking waters being consumed by the population in Albania, arising from heavy metals content. Investigated water included industrialized water, tap water, and spring water. In total, 20 samples were analyzed for the content of Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, Fe, Zn, Al, and Mn. Determination of each metal concentration in selected samples was conducted by atomic absorption spectroscopy method with electrothermal atomization, GFAAS. Water quality was evaluated by comparing the obtained metals concentrations with the recommended maximum limits, according to the European Directive (98/83/EC) and Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality (WHO, 2017). Metal Index (MI) was used to assess the overall water quality due to heavy metals content. Health risk assessment was conducted based on the recommendations of the USEPA (1996), human health risk assessment, via ingestion. Results of this investigation showed that Al, Ni, Fe, and Cu were the metals found in higher concentrations while Cd exhibited the lowest concentration. Among the analyzed metals, Al (one sample) and Ni (in five samples) exceeded the maximum allowed limit. Based on the pollution metal index, it was concluded that the overall quality of Glina bottled water can be considered as toxic to humans, while the quality of bottled water (Trebeshina) was classified as moderately toxic. Values of health risk quotient (HQ) varied between 1x10⁻⁶-1.3x10⁻¹, following the order Ni > Cd > Pb > Cu > Al > Fe > Zn > Mn. All the values were lower than 1, which suggests that the analyzed samples exhibit no health risk for humans.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, heavy metals, pollution index

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Authors: Olukayode Bamgbose, Feyisola Agboola, Adewale M. Taiwo, Olanrewaju Olujimi Oluwole Terebo, Azeez Soyingbe, Akeem Bamgbade

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The present study evaluated the contents and health risk assessment of metals determined in milk and milk product samples collected from the Abeokuta market. Forty-five milk and milk product (yoghurt) samples were digested and analysed for selected metals using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric method. Health risk assessment was evaluated for hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR). Data were subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics. The concentrations of Zn, which ranged from 3.24±0.59 to 4.35±0.59 mg/kg, were the highest in the samples. Cr and Cd were measured below the detection limit of the analytical instrument, while the Pb level was higher than the Codex Alimentarius Commission value of 0.02 mg/kg, indicating unsafe for consumption. However, the HQ of Pb and other metals in milk and milk product samples was less than 1.0, thereby establishing no adverse health effects for Pb and other metals. The distribution pattern of metals in milk and milk product samples followed the decreasing order of Zn > Fe > Ni > Co > Cu > Mn > Pb > Cd/Cr. The CR levels of meals were also less than the permissible limit of 1.0 x 10-4, establishing no possible development of cancer. Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, the permissible limit.

Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, permissible limit

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Authors: Robert Pečenko, Karin Tomažič, Igor Planinc, Sabina Huč, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber is favourable structural material due to high strength to weight ratio, recycling possibilities, and green credentials. Despite being flammable material, it has relatively high fire resistance. Everyday engineering practice around the word is based on an outdated design of timber structures considering standard fire exposure, while modern principles of performance-based design enable use of advanced non-standard fire curves. In Europe, standard for fire design of timber structures EN 1995-1-2 (Eurocode 5) gives two methods, reduced material properties method and reduced cross-section method. In the latter, fire resistance of structural elements depends on the effective cross-section that is a residual cross-section of uncharred timber reduced additionally by so called zero strength layer. In case of standard fire exposure, Eurocode 5 gives a fixed value of zero strength layer, i.e. 7 mm, while for non-standard parametric fires no additional comments or recommendations for zero strength layer are given. Thus designers often implement adopted 7 mm rule also for parametric fire exposure. Since the latest scientific evidence suggests that proposed value of zero strength layer can be on unsafe side for standard fire exposure, its use in the case of a parametric fire is also highly questionable and more numerical and experimental research in this field is needed. Therefore, the purpose of the presented study is to use advanced calculation methods to investigate the thickness of zero strength layer and parametric charring rates used in effective cross-section method in case of parametric fire. Parametric studies are carried out on a simple solid timber beam that is exposed to a larger number of parametric fire curves Zero strength layer and charring rates are determined based on the numerical simulations which are performed by the recently developed advanced two step computational model. The first step comprises of hygro-thermal model which predicts the temperature, moisture and char depth development and takes into account different initial moisture states of timber. In the second step, the response of timber beam simultaneously exposed to mechanical and fire load is determined. The mechanical model is based on the Reissner’s kinematically exact beam model and accounts for the membrane, shear and flexural deformations of the beam. Further on, material non-linear and temperature dependent behaviour is considered. In the two step model, the char front temperature is, according to Eurocode 5, assumed to have a fixed temperature of around 300°C. Based on performed study and observations, improved levels of charring rates and new thickness of zero strength layer in case of parametric fires are determined. Thus, the reduced cross section method is substantially improved to offer practical recommendations for designing fire resistance of timber structures. Furthermore, correlations between zero strength layer thickness and key input parameters of the parametric fire curve (for instance, opening factor, fire load, etc.) are given, representing a guideline for a more detailed numerical and also experimental research in the future.

Keywords: advanced numerical modelling, parametric fire exposure, timber structures, zero strength layer

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Authors: Nevila Bardhi, Joanna Magda, Kolapo Alex-Oni, Slavenka Sedlar, Paromita Hore

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The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) receives blood lead test results for NYC residents and conducts lead poisoning case investigations for individuals with elevated blood lead levels exposed to lead occupationally and non-occupationally. To (1) improve participant engagement, (2) aid the identification of potential lead sources, and (3) better tailor recommendations to reduce lead exposure, Motivational Interviewing (MI) techniques were incorporated during risk assessment interviews of non-pregnant adults by DOHMH’s Adult Lead Poisoning Prevention (ALP) Program. MI is an evidence-based counselling method used in clinical settings that have been effective in promoting behavior change by resolving ambivalence and enhancing motivation in treating both physiological and psychological health conditions. The incorporation of MI techniques in the ALP risk assessment interview was effective in improving the identification of lead sources for non-pregnant adult cases, thus, allowing for the opportunity to better tailor lead poisoning prevention recommendations. The embedding of MI cues in the ALP risk assessment interview also significantly increased engagement in the interview process, resulting in approximately 50 more interviews conducted per year and a decrease in interview refusals during case investigations. Additionally, the pre-MI interview completion rate was 57%, while the post-MI Interview completion rate was 68%. We recommend MI techniques to be used by other lead poisoning prevention programs during lead poisoning investigations in similar diverse populations.

Keywords: lead poisoning prevention, motivational interviewing, behavior change, lead poisoning risk factors, self-efficacy

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Guillaume Craveur

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This study shows the opportunity to use numerical tools dedicated to Fire Safety Engineering for the Rolling Stock. Indeed, some lawful requirements can now be demonstrated by using numerical tools. The first part of this study presents the use of modelling evacuation tool to satisfy the criteria of evacuation time for the rolling stock. The buildingEXODUS software is used to model and simulate the evacuation of rolling stock. Firstly, in order to demonstrate the reliability of this tool to calculate the complete evacuation time, a comparative study was achieved between a real test and simulations done with buildingEXODUS. Multiple simulations are performed to capture the stochastic variations in egress times. Then, a new study is done to calculate the complete evacuation time of a train with the same geometry but with a different interior architecture. The second part of this study shows some applications of Computational Fluid Dynamics. This work presents the approach of a multi scales validation of numerical simulations of standardized tests with Fire Dynamics Simulations software developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This work highlights in first the cone calorimeter test, described in the standard ISO 5660, in order to characterize the fire reaction of materials. The aim of this process is to readjust measurement results from the cone calorimeter test in order to create a data set usable at the seat scale. In the second step, the modelisation concerns the fire seat test described in the standard EN 45545-2. The data set obtained thanks to the validation of the cone calorimeter test was set up in the fire seat test. To conclude with the third step, after controlled the data obtained for the seat from the cone calorimeter test, a larger scale simulation with a real part of train is achieved.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, numerical tools, rolling stock, multi-scales validation

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Authors: Anass Rahouti, Guillaume Salze, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Sélim Datoussaïd

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In healthcare facilities, training the staff for firefighting and evacuation in real buildings is very challenging due to the presence of a vulnerable population in such an environment. In a standard environment, traditional approaches, such as fire drills, are often used to train the occupants and provide them with information about fire safety procedures. However, those traditional approaches may be inappropriate for a vulnerable population and can be inefficient from an educational viewpoint as it is impossible to expose the occupants to scenarios similar to a real emergency. Immersive serious games could be used as an alternative to traditional approaches to overcome their limitations. Serious games are already being used in different safety domains such as fires, earthquakes and terror attacks for several building types (e.g., office buildings, train stations, tunnels, etc.). In this study, we developed an immersive serious game to improve the fire safety skills of staff in healthcare facilities. An accurate representation of the healthcare environment was built in Unity3D by including visual and audio stimuli inspired from those employed in commercial action games. The serious game is organised in three levels. In each of them, the trainee is presented with a specific fire emergency and s/he can perform protective actions (e.g., firefighting, helping non-ambulant occupants, etc.) or s/he can ignore the opportunity for action and continue the evacuation. In this paper, we describe all the steps required to develop such a prototype, as well as the key questions that need to be answered, to develop a serious game for firefighting and evacuation in healthcare facilities.

Keywords: fire safety, healthcare, serious game, training

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Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

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Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

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Authors: M. Miljkovic, A. Urakpo, M. Simic-Koumoutsaris

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Benefit-risk assessment (BRA) is a valuable tool that takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's lifecycle, and this assessment can be conducted in a variety of ways. The aim was to summarize current BRA methods used during approval decisions and in post-approval settings and to see possible future directions. Relevant reviews, recommendations, and guidelines published in medical literature and through regulatory agencies over the past five years have been examined. BRA implies the review of two dimensions: the dimension of benefits (determined mainly by the therapeutic efficacy) and the dimension of risks (comprises the safety profile of a drug). Regulators, industry, and academia have developed various approaches, ranging from descriptive textual (qualitative) to decision-analytic (quantitative) models, to facilitate the BRA of medicines during the product lifecycle (from Phase I trials, to authorization procedure, post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies). These approaches can be classified into the following categories: stepwise structured approaches (frameworks); measures for benefits and risks that are usually endpoint specific (metrics), simulation techniques and meta-analysis (estimation techniques), and utility survey techniques to elicit stakeholders’ preferences (utilities). All these approaches share the following two common goals: to assist this analysis and to improve the communication of decisions, but each is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Before using any method, its utility, complexity, the extent to which it is established, and the ease of results interpretation should be considered. Despite widespread and long-time use, BRA is subject to debate, suffers from a number of limitations, and currently is still under development. The use of formal, systematic structured approaches to BRA for regulatory decision-making and quantitative methods to support BRA during the product lifecycle is a standard practice in medicine that is subject to continuous improvement and modernization, not only in methodology but also in cooperation between organizations.

Keywords: benefit-risk assessment, benefit-risk profile, product lifecycle, quantitative methods, structured approaches

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: K. Nasir, S. Ahmad, A. Khan, H. Benkreira

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The topic of the research is to develop sustainable fire-resistant materials for vibration and acoustic damping of structure and airborne noises from sustainable recycled materials and biodegradable binders. The paper reports, methods and techniques of enhancing fire resistive, vibration and acoustic properties of building insulation materials made from natural resources like wood and recycled materials like rubber and textile waste. The structures are designed to optimize the number, size and stratification of closed (heat insulating) and open (noise insulating) pores. The samples produced are tested for their heat and noise insulating properties, including vibration damping and their structural properties (airflow resistivity, porosity, tortuosity and elastic modulus). The structural properties are then used in theoretical models to check the acoustic insulation measurements. Initial data indicate that one layer of such material can yield as much as 18 times more damping, increasing the loss factor by 18%.

Keywords: fire resistant, vibration damping, acoustic material, vibro-acoustic, thermal insulation, sustainable material, low cost materials, recycled materials, construction material

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Authors: Rajlakshmi Banerjee, Sujoy Banerjee

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The prevalence of malnutrition, as the most common cause of morbidity and mortality increases with old age, especially in developing countries like India, because of many factors out of which dentate status is one. It affects diet, nutritional status and general health due to reduced chewing ability and poor food choices. Aim and Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of nutritional status, dietary intake on the Oral Health-related Quality of life (OHRQoL) of elderly edentulous complete denture wearing patients and to know whether they are at a higher risk of malnutrition. The objective was to assess the need to include dietary and nutritional counselling during Prosthodontic rehabilitation of elderly edentulous patients. Materials and method: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 200 elderly denture wearing patients above 60 yrs of age from Nagpur, Maharashtra. The majority of study subjects (60%) were between the age group 60 and 75 years. Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA) Questionnaire was used to assess nutritional status and General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) questionnaire was used to determine the Oral health related Quality of life of these patients.Descriptive statistics was used to analyze data using SPSS version 21. Results: Among the assessed subjects, nearly 80% of them had total scores of GOHAI between 12 and 57 which require ‘needed dental care.’ As per MNA, 10.5% had adequate nutrition, 70 % were at risk of malnutrition, and remaining 19.5 % of subjects were malnourished. There was a significant correlation between GOHAI and MNA scores. A strong association was found between mean GOHAI and MNA scores and thereby nutritional status and OHRQOL.Conclusion: The use of conventional dentures increases the risk of malnutrition in the elderly due to inability to eat and chew food properly and therefore severely affecting the quality of life. Dietary analysis and counselling should be strictly incorporated into geriatric treatment planning during Prosthetic rehabilitation.

Keywords: general oral health assessment index, General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI), nutritional assessment, mini-nutritional assessment, Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA), quality of life

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

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In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. samples was collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) µg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) µg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4 - 253.8) µg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) µg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 µg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: air pollution, respiratory diseases, airQ2.2.3, Makkah

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Authors: Xiaoting Shi, Xiaomei Ma

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In higher education, students' self-assessment and peer assessment of compositions in writing classes can effectively improve their ability of evaluative judgment. However, students' self-assessment and peer assessment are not advocated by most teachers because of the significant difference in scoring compared with teacher assessment. This study used a multi-faceted Rasch model to explore whether an English writing checklist containing 30 descriptors can effectively improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. Meanwhile, a questionnaire was adopted to survey students’ and teachers’ attitudes toward self-assessment and peer assessment using the writing checklist. Results of the multi-faceted Rasch model analysis show that the writing checklist can effectively distinguish the students’ writing ability (separate coefficient = 2.05, separate reliability = 0.81, chi-square value (df = 32) = 123.4). Moreover, the results revealed that the checklist could improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. (separate coefficient = 1.71, separate reliability = 0.75, chi-square value (df=4) = 20.8). The results of the questionnaire showed that more than 85% of students and all teachers believed that the checklist had a good advantage in self-assessment and peer assessment, and they were willing to use the checklist to conduct self-assessment and peer assessment in class in the future.

Keywords: english writing, self-assessment, peer assessment, writing checklist

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Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

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Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

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Authors: E. Duffin, L. Brownlow

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Arson is a crime which can provide exceptional problems to forensic specialists. Its destructive nature makes evidence much harder to find, especially when used to cover up another crime. There is a consistent potential threat of arsonists seeking new and easier ways to set fires. Existing research in this field primarily focuses on the use of accelerants such as petrol, with less attention to other more accessible and harder to detect materials. This includes the growing speculation of potato and maize-based snacks being used as fire accelerants. It was hypothesized that all ‘crisp-type’ snacks in foil packaging had the potential to act as accelerants and would burn readily in the various experiments. To test this hypothesis, a series of small lab-based experiments were undertaken, igniting samples of the snacks. Factors such as ingredients, shape, packaging and calorific value were all taken into consideration. The time (in seconds) spent on fire by the individual snacks was recorded. It was found that all of the snacks tested burnt for statistically similar amounts of time with a p-value of 0.0157. This was followed with a large mock real-life scenario using packets of crisps on fire and car seats to investigate as to the possibility of these snacks being verifiable tools to the arsonist. Here, three full packets of crisps were selected based on variations in burning during the lab experiments. They were each lit with a lighter to initiate burning, then placed onto a car seat to be timed and observed with video cameras. In all three cases, the fire was significant and sustained by the 200-second mark. On the basis of this data, it was concluded that potato and maize-based snacks were viable accelerants of fire. They remain an effective method of starting fires whilst being cheap, accessible, non-suspicious and non-detectable. The results produced supported the hypothesis that all ‘crisp-type’ snacks in foil packaging (that had been tested) had the potential to act as accelerants and would burn readily in the various experiments. This study serves to raise awareness and provide a basis for research and prevention of arson regarding maize and potato-based snacks as fire accelerants.

Keywords: arson, crisps, fires, food

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Dong Zhang, Kang Hai Tan, Aravind Dasari

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Increasing concern on environmental sustainability and waste management has driven the construction and building sector towards renewable materials. In this work, we have explored the usage of natural fibers as an alternative to synthetic fibers like polypropylene (PP) in ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC). PP fibers are incorporated into concrete to resist explosive thermal spalling of UHPC during a fire exposure scenario. Experimental studies on the effect of natural fiber on the mechanical properties and spalling resistance of UHCP were conducted. The residual mechanical properties of UHPC with natural fibers were tested after heating to different temperatures. Spalling behavior of UHPC with natural fibers is also assessed by heating the samples according to ISO 834 fire curve. A range of analytical, physical and microscopic characterization techniques was also used on the concrete samples before and after being subjected to elevated temperature to investigate the phase and microstructural change of the sample. The findings show that natural fibers are able to improve fire resistance of UHPC. Adding natural fibers can prevent UHPC from spalling at high temperature. This study provides an alternative, which is at low cost and environmentally friendly, to prevent spalling of UHPC.

Keywords: high temperature, natural fiber, spalling, ultra-high performance concrete

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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