Search results for: combining forecasts

Authors: U. Ali Rahoma, Nabil Esawy, Fawzia Ibrahim Moursy, A. H. Hassan, Samy A. Khalil, Ashraf S. Khamees

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The design of any solar energy conversion system requires the knowledge of solar radiation data obtained over a long period. Satellite data has been widely used to estimate solar energy where no ground observation of solar radiation is available, yet there are limitations on the temporal coverage of satellite data. Reanalysis is a “retrospective analysis” of the atmosphere parameters generated by assimilating observation data from various sources, including ground observation, satellites, ships, and aircraft observation with the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, to develop an exhaustive record of weather and climate parameters. The evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa against high-quality surface measured data was performed using statistical analysis. The estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) distribution over six different selected locations in North Africa during ten years from the period time 2011 to 2020. The root means square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of reanalysis data of solar radiation range from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.0145 to 0.198, and 0.055 to 0.178, respectively. The seasonal statistical analysis was performed to study seasonal variation of performance of datasets, which reveals the significant variation of errors in different seasons—the performance of the dataset changes by changing the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison. The monthly mean values of data show better performance, but the accuracy of data is compromised. The solar radiation data of ERA-5 is used for preliminary solar resource assessment and power estimation. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% for the different selected sites in North Africa in the present research. The goal of this research is to give a good representation for global solar radiation to help in solar energy application in all fields, and this can be done by using gridded data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and producing a new model to give a good result.

Keywords: solar energy, solar radiation, ERA-5, potential energy

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Authors: Khen Cohen, Daniel Yankelevich, David Mendlovic, Dan Raviv

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We present a 3D stereo system for high-resolution sensing in both the spatial and the temporal domains by combining a frame-based camera and an event-based camera. We establish a method to merge both devices into one unite system and introduce a calibration process, followed by a correspondence technique and interpolation algorithm for 3D reconstruction. We further provide quantitative analysis about our system in terms of depth resolution and additional parameter analysis. We show experimentally how our system performs temporal super-resolution up to effectively 1ms and can detect fast-moving objects and human micro-movements that can be used for micro-expression analysis. We also demonstrate how our method can extract colored events for an event-based camera without any degradation in the spatial resolution, compared to a colored filter array.

Keywords: DVS-CIS stereo vision, micro-movements, temporal super-resolution, 3D reconstruction

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Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

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A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Mohammad Saeed Bahramy

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Transition metal dichalcogenides have experienced a resurgence of interest in the past few years owing to their rich properties, ranging from metals and superconductors to strongly spin-orbit-coupled semiconductors and charge-density-wave systems. In all these cases, the transition metal d-electrons mainly determine the ground state properties. This presentation focuses on the chalcogen-derived states. Combining density-functional theory calculations with spin- and angle-resolved photoemission, it is shown that these states generically host a coexistence of type I and type II three-dimensional bulk Dirac fermions as well as ladders of topological surface states and surface resonances. It will be discussed how these naturally arise within a single p-orbital manifold as a general consequence of a trigonal crystal field, and as such can be expected across many compounds. Our finding opens a new route to design topological materials with advanced functionalities.

Keywords: topology, electronic structure, Dirac semimetals, transition metal dichalcogenides

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Authors: Abderrahmane Khiat, Moussa Benaissa

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Due to the increasing number of sources of information available on the web and their distribution and heterogeneity, ontology alignment became a very important and inevitable problem to ensure semantic interoperability. Instance-based ontology alignment is based on the comparison of the extensions of concepts; and represents a very promising technique to find semantic correspondences between entities of different ontologies. In practice, two situations may arise: ontologies that share many common instances and ontologies that share few or do not share common instances. In this paper, we describe an approach to manage the latter case. This approach exploits the reasoning on ontologies in order to create a corpus of common instances. We show that it is theoretically powerful because it is based on description logics and very useful in practice. We present the experimental results obtained by running our approach on ontologies of OAEI 2012 benchmark test. The results show the performance of our approach.

Keywords: description logic inference, instance-based ontology alignment, semantic interoperability, semantic web

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Authors: Mohamed Adnan Landolsi, Ali F. Almutairi

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The paper addresses the problem of line-of-sight (LOS) vs. non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation link identification in ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless networks, which is necessary for improving the accuracy of radiolocation and positioning applications. A LOS/NLOS likelihood hypothesis testing approach is applied based on exploiting distinctive statistical features of the channel impulse response (CIR) using parameters related to the “skewness” of the CIR and its root mean square (RMS) delay spread. A log-normal fit is presented for the probability densities of the CIR parameters. Simulation results show that different environments (residential, office, outdoor, etc.) have measurable differences in their CIR parameters’ statistics, which is then exploited in determining the nature of the propagation channels. Correct LOS/NLOS channel identification rates exceeding 90% are shown to be achievable for most types of environments. Additional improvement is also obtained by combining both CIR skewness and RMS delay statistics.

Keywords: UWB, propagation, LOS, NLOS, identification

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Authors: Guoliang Lu, Changhou Lu, Xueyong Li

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In action recognition, previous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple features to improve the recognition performance. We focus on two practical issues: i) most studies use a direct way of concatenating/accumulating multi features to evaluate the similarity between two actions. This way could be too strong since each kind of feature can include different dimensions, quantities, etc; ii) in many studies, the employed classification methods lack of a flexible and effective mechanism to add new feature(s) into classification. In this paper, we explore an unified scheme based on recently-proposed multi-dimensional dynamic time warping (MD-DTW). Experiments demonstrated the scheme's effectiveness of combining multi-feature and the flexibility of adding new feature(s) to increase the recognition performance. In addition, the explored scheme also provides us an open architecture for using new advanced classification methods in the future to enhance action recognition.

Keywords: action recognition, multi features, dynamic time warping, feature combination

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Authors: Edwina Luck, Rory Mulcahy

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This paper explores a distinctive perspective of resources which are integrated to co-destroy transformative value in sport. Combining previously published transformative service research and sports literature with data from twenty in-depth interviews with elite and Olympic rowers, our study uncovers the co-destructive resources of ‘interpersonal misbehavior’ and ‘sport misbehavior’. We also identified transformative value in sport is multi-dimensional, encompassing important benefits that support well-being. This research has important implications for transformative sport service research, recommending the need to embrace a transformative service lens to value, a more holistic understanding of co-destruction, and the need to utilise multi-dimensional frameworks to ensure greater insights into sport and sports services and their impact on sportsperson’s well-being. Gaining this understanding will encourage sport managers, sporting bodies to justify resources that they integrate based upon their impact on co-destruction of value.

Keywords: elite sports, sport misbehavior, transformative sport service research, value co-destruction

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Authors: Liu Lin Xin

Abstract:

With the increasing complexity of systems, log parsing and anomaly detection have become crucial for maintaining system stability. However, traditional methods often struggle with adaptability and accuracy, especially when dealing with rapidly evolving log content and unfamiliar domains. To address these challenges, this paper proposes approach that integrates Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) technology with Prompt Engineering for Large Language Models, applied specifically in LogPrompt. This approach enables dynamic log parsing and intelligent anomaly detection by combining real-time information retrieval with prompt optimization. The proposed method significantly enhances the adaptability of log analysis and improves the interpretability of results. Experimental results on several public datasets demonstrate the method's superior performance, particularly in scenarios lacking training data, where it significantly outperforms traditional methods. This paper introduces a novel technical pathway for log parsing and anomaly detection, showcasing the substantial theoretical value and practical potential.

Keywords: log parsing, anomaly detection, RAG, prompt engineering, LLMs

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Authors: Cristina-Maria Păcurar

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The paper presents an original Python-based application that outlines the advantages of combining some elementary notions of mathematics with the study of a programming language. The application support refers to some of the first lessons of analytic geometry, meaning conics and quadrics and their reduction to a standard form, as well as some related notions. The chosen programming language is Python, not only for its closer to an everyday language syntax – and therefore, enhanced readability – but also for its highly reusable code, which is of utmost importance for a mathematician that is accustomed to exploit already known and used problems to solve new ones. The purpose of this paper is, on one hand, to support the idea that one of the most appropriate means to initiate one into programming is throughout mathematics, and reciprocal, one of the most facile and handy ways to assimilate some basic knowledge in the study of mathematics is to apply them in a personal project. On the other hand, besides being a mean of learning both programming and analytic geometry, the application subject to this paper is itself a useful tool for it can be seen as an independent original Python package for analytic geometry.

Keywords: analytic geometry, conics, python, quadrics

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Najme lari, Shahrokh Ahangarani, Ali Shanaghi

Abstract:

Multilayer structure of thin films by the sol–gel process attracts great attention for antireflection applications. In this paper, antireflective nanometric multilayer SiO2-TiO2 films are formed on both sides of the glass substrates by combining the sol–gel method and the dip-coating technique. SiO2 and TiO2 sols were prepared using tetraethylorthosilicate (TEOS) and tetrabutylorthotitanate (TBOT) as precursors and also nitric acid as catalyst. Prepared coatings were investigated by Field-emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM), Fourier-transformed infrared spectrophotometer (FT-IR) and UV–visible spectrophotometer. After evaluation, all of SiO2 top layer coatings showed excellent antireflection in the wavelength range of 400-800 nm where the transmittance of glass substrate is significantly lower. By increasing the number of double TiO2-SiO2 layers, the transmission of the coated glass increases due to applied multilayer coating properties. 6-layer sol–gel TiO2-SiO2 shows the highest visible transmittance about 99.25% at the band of 550-650 nm.

Keywords: thin films, optical properties, sol-gel, multilayer

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Authors: C. Trapp, A. Vijay, M. Khorasani

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Decentralised micro-grids with sector coupling can combat the spatial and temporal intermittence of renewable energy by combining power, transportation and infrastructure sectors. Intelligent energy conversion concepts such as electrolysers, hydrogen engines and fuel cells combined with energy storage using intelligent batteries and hydrogen storage form the back-bone of such a system. This paper describes a micro-grid based on Photo-Voltaic cells, battery storage, innovative modular and scalable Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolyzer with an efficiency of up to 73%, high-pressure hydrogen storage as well as cutting-edge combustion-engine based Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant with more than 85% efficiency at the university campus to address the challenges of decarbonization whilst eliminating the necessity for expensive high-voltage infrastructure.

Keywords: sector coupling, micro-grids, energy self-sufficiency, decarbonization, AEM electrolysis, hydrogen CHP

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Authors: Ahmed M. El-Araby, Ibrahim Sabry, Ahmed El-Assal

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The relationships between the industrial facilities, the capacity available for these facilities, and the costs involved are the main factors in deciding the correct selection of a facility layout. In general, an issue of facility layout is considered to be an unstructured problem of decision-making. The objective of this work is to provide a survey that describes the techniques by which a facility planning problem can be solved and also the effect of these techniques on the efficiency of the layout. The multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques can be classified according to the previous researches into three categories which are the use of single MCDM, combining two or more MCDM, and the integration of MCDM with another technique such as genetic algorithms (GA). This paper presents a review of different multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques that have been proposed in the literature to pick the most suitable layout design. These methods are particularly suitable to deal with complex situations, including various criteria and conflicting goals which need to be optimized simultaneously.

Keywords: facility layout, MCDM, GA, literature review

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Authors: Gobinda Gopal Khan, Ashutosh K. Singh, Debasish Sarkar

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Unique one-dimensional (1D) Ni-NiO and Co-Ni/Co3O4-NiO core/shell nano-heterostructures are fabricated by combining the electrochemical deposition and annealing. The high-performance pseudo-capacitor electrode based on the Ni-NiO and Co-Ni/Co3O4-NiO core/shell nano-heterostructures is designed and demonstrated. The Co-Ni/Co3O4-NiO core/shell nano-heterostructures exhibit high specific capacitance (2013 Fg-1 at 2.5 Ag-1), high energy and power density (23 Wh kg-1 and 5.5 kW kg-1, at the discharge current density of 20.8 A g-1.), good capacitance retention, and long cyclicality. The remarkable electrochemical property of the large surface area nano-heterostructures is demonstrated based on the novel nano-architectural design of the electrode with the coexistence of the two highly redox active materials at the surface supported by highly conducting metal alloy channel at the core for faster charge transport.

Keywords: nano-heterostructures, energy storage, supercapacitors, electrochemical deposition

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Authors: Dorsa Bakhshandehgeyazdi

Abstract:

This article tries to comprehend the change of Turkish common military relations in an analogical viewpoint. The investigation is taking into account two criteria: institutional / legitimate systems and political oversight of the military's self-sufficiency. Examination of European furthermore, Middle Eastern common military relations models to the Turkish ideal model discloses grave contrasts in the middle of Turkish and Middle Eastern common military relations. The Turkish model in change for not less than 10 years is closer to the European show in both lawful and political perspectives. However, the article underscores that Turkish common military relations are still in change and despite the fact that the EU increase procedure has continuously democratized the legitimate arrangement of the nation, law based combining obliges further advances in the political area. A the result, stabilization in Turkey depends not just on withdrawing of the military from the political domain, additionally on the best possible civilization of the administration in hypothesis and practice.

Keywords: Turkish common military, institutional, legitimate systems, political oversight, middle Eastern common military

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Authors: Qaiser uz Zaman Khan

Abstract:

This research article provides a comprehensive study of combining steel fiber and polypropylene fibers in concrete at different mix ratios. This blending of various fibers has led to the development of hybrid fiber-reinforced concrete (HFRC), which offers notable improvements in mechanical properties and increased resistance to cracking. Steel fibers are known for their high tensile strength and excellent crack control abilities, while polypropylene fibers offer increased toughness and impact resistance. The synergistic use of these two fiber types in concrete has yielded promising outcomes, effectively enhancing its overall performance. This article explores the key aspects of hybridization, including fiber types, proportions, mixing methods, and the resulting properties of the concrete. Additionally, challenges, potential applications, and future research directions in the field are discussed.

Keywords: FRC, fiber-reinforced concrete, split tensile testing, HFRC, mechanical properties, steel fibers, reinforced concrete, polypropylene fibers

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Authors: Hamed Djalal

Abstract:

The thermal analysis of the mechanical draft wet cooling tower is performed in this study by the heat and mass transfer modelization in the packing zone. After combining the heat and mass transfer laws, the mass and energy balances and by involving the Merkel assumptions; firstly, an ordinary differential equations system is derived and solved numerically by the Runge-Kutta method to determine the water and air temperatures, the humidity, and also other properties variation along the packing zone. Secondly, by making some linear assumptions for the air saturation curve, an analytical solution is formed, which is developed for the air washer calculation, but in this study, it is applied for the cooling tower to express also the previous parameters mathematically as a function of the packing height. Finally, a good agreement with experimental data is achieved by both solutions, but the numerical one seems to be the more accurate for modeling the heat and mass transfer process in the wet cooling tower.

Keywords: evaporative cooling, cooling tower, air washer, humidification, moist air, heat, and mass transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Najme Lari, Shahrokh Ahangarani, Ali Shanaghi

Abstract:

Multilayer structure of thin films by the sol–gel process attracts great attention for antireflection applications. In this paper, antireflective nanometric multilayer SiO2-TiO2 films are formed on both sides of the glass substrates by combining the sol–gel method and the dip-coating technique. SiO2 and TiO2 sols were prepared using tetraethylorthosilicate (TEOS) and tetrabutylorthotitanate (TBOT) as precursors and nitric acid as catalyst. Prepared coatings were investigated by Field-emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM), Fourier-transformed infrared spectrophotometer (FT-IR) and UV–visible spectrophotometer. After evaluation, all of SiO2 top layer coatings showed excellent antireflection in the wavelength range of 400-800 nm where the transmittance of glass substrate is significantly lower. By increasing the number of double TiO2-SiO2 layers, the transmission of the coated glass increases due to applied multilayer coating properties. 6-layer sol–gel TiO2-SiO2 shows the highest visible transmittance about 99.25% at the band of 550-650 nm.

Keywords: thin films, optical properties, sol-gel, multilayer

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Nanadcha Sinjindawong

Abstract:

This article discusses the design process of a community mall called Castle of The Mall-dern. The concept behind this mall is to combine elements of a medieval castle with modern architecture. The author aims to create a building that fits into the surroundings while also providing users with the vibes of the ancient era. The total area used for the mall is 4,000 square meters, with three floors. The first floor is 1,500 square meters, the second floor is 1,750 square meters, and the third floor is 750 square meters. Research Aim: The aim of this research is to design a community mall that sells ancient clothes and accessories, and to combine sustainable architectural design with the ideas of ancient architecture in an urban area with convenient transportation. Methodology: The research utilizes qualitative research methods in architectural design. The process begins with calculating the given area and dividing it into different zones. The author then sketches and draws the plan of each floor, adding the necessary rooms based on the floor areas mentioned earlier. The program "SketchUp" is used to create an online 3D model of the community mall, and a physical model is built for presentation purposes on A1 paper, explaining all the details. Findings: The result of this research is a community mall with various amenities. The first floor includes retail shops, clothing stores, a food center, and a service zone. Additionally, there is an indoor garden with a fountain and a tree for relaxation. The second and third floors feature a void in the middle, with a few stores, cafes, restaurants, and studios on the second floor. The third floor is home to the administration and security control room, as well as a community gathering area designed as a public library with a café inside. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field of sustainable architectural design by combining ancient architectural ideas with modern elements. It showcases the potential for creating buildings that blend historical aesthetics with contemporary functionality. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this research is collected through a combination of area calculation, sketching, and building a 3D model. The analysis involves evaluating the design based on the allocated area, zoning, and functional requirements for a community mall. Question Addressed: The research addresses the question of how to design a community mall with a theme of ancient Medieval and Victorian eras. It explores how to combine sustainable architectural design principles with historical aesthetics to create a functional and visually appealing space. Conclusion: In conclusion, this research successfully designs a community mall called “Castle of The Mall-dern” that incorporates elements of Medieval and Victorian architecture. The building encompasses various zones, including retail shops, restaurants, community gathering areas, and service zones. It also features an interior garden and a public library within the mall. The research contributes to the field of sustainable architectural design by showcasing the potential for combining ancient architectural ideas with modern elements in an urban setting.

Keywords: 3D model, community mall, modern architecture, medieval architecture

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Authors: N. S. Achour, M. Hamdaoui, S. Ben Nasrallah

Abstract:

Wicking and evaporation of water in porous knitted fabrics is investigated by combining experimental and analytical approaches: The standard wicking model from Lucas and Washburn is enhanced to account for evaporation and gravity effects. The goal is to model the effect of gravity and evaporation on wicking using simple analytical expressions and investigate the influence of fabrics geometrical parameters, such as porosity and thickness on evaporation impact on maximum reachable height values. The results show that fabric properties have a significant influence on evaporation effect. In this paper, an experimental study of determining water kinetics from different knitted fabrics were gravimetrically investigated permitting the measure of the mass and the height of liquid rising in fabrics in various atmospheric conditions. From these measurements, characteristic pore parameters (capillary radius and permeability) can be determined.

Keywords: evaporation, experimental study, geometrical parameters, model, porous knitted fabrics, wicking

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Authors: Yufei Peng, Zhen Qin, Jianbe Li, Jidong Long

Abstract:

The thermal cathode is widely used in accelerators, FELs and kinds of vacuum electronics. However, emission nonuniformity exists due to surface profile, material distribution, temperature variation, crystal orientation, etc., which will cause intrinsic emittance growth, brightness decline, envelope size augment, device performance deterioration or even failure. To understand how emittance is manipulated by emission nonuniformity, an intrinsic emittance model consisting of contributions from macro and micro surface nonuniformity is developed analytically based on general thermal emission model at temperature limited regime according to a real 3mm cathode. The model shows relative emittance increased about 50% due to temperature variation, and less than 5% from several kinds of micro surface nonuniformity which is much smaller than other research. Otherwise, we also calculated emittance growth combining with Monte Carlo method and PIC simulation, experiments of emission uniformity and emittance measurement are going to be carried out separately.

Keywords: thermal cathode, electron emission fluctuation, intrinsic emittance, surface nonuniformity, cathode lifetime

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Authors: Y. Bablu Singh, B. S. Purkayashtha, Chungkham Yashawanta Singh

Abstract:

Morphological analysis forms the basic foundation in NLP applications including syntax parsing Machine Translation (MT), Information Retrieval (IR) and automatic indexing in all languages. It is the field of the linguistics; it can provide valuable information for computer based linguistics task such as lemmatization and studies of internal structure of the words. Computational Morphology is the application of morphological rules in the field of computational linguistics, and it is the emerging area in AI, which studies the structure of words, which are formed by combining smaller units of linguistics information, called morphemes: the building blocks of words. Morphological analysis provides about semantic and syntactic role in a sentence. It analyzes the Manipuri word forms and produces several grammatical information associated with the words. The Morphological Analyzer for Manipuri has been tested on 3500 Manipuri words in Shakti Standard format (SSF) using Meitei Mayek as source; thereby an accuracy of 80% has been obtained on a manual check.

Keywords: morphological analysis, machine translation, computational morphology, information retrieval, SSF

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Authors: Xiaofei Hu, Zhiyu Cai, Weian Yao

Abstract:

V-notch problem under dynamic loading condition is considered in this paper. In the time domain, the precise time domain expanding algorithm is employed, in which a self-adaptive technique is carried out to improve computing accuracy. By expanding variables in each time interval, the recursive finite element formulas are derived. In the space domain, a Symplectic Analytical Singular Element (SASE) for V-notch problem is constructed addressing the stress singularity of the notch tip. Combining with the conventional finite elements, the proposed SASE can be used to solve the dynamic stress intensity factors (DSIFs) in a simple way. Numerical results show that the proposed SASE for V-notch problem subjected to dynamic loading condition is effective and efficient.

Keywords: V-notch, dynamic stress intensity factor, finite element method, precise time domain expanding algorithm

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: William Ho, Agus Wicaksana

Abstract:

Anecdotal evidence in the last decade shows that the occurrence of disruptive events and uncertainties in the supply chain is increasing. The coupling of these events with the nature of an increasingly complex and interdependent business environment leads to devastating impacts that quickly propagate within and across organizations. For example, the recent COVID-19 pandemic increased the global supply chain disruption frequency by at least 20% in 2020 and is projected to have an accumulative cost of $13.8 trillion by 2024. This crisis raises attention to organizational resilience to weather business uncertainty. However, the concept has been criticized for being vague and lacking a consistent definition, thus reducing the significance of the concept for practice and research. This study is intended to solve that issue by providing a comprehensive review of the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience that have been discussed in the supply chain risk management literature (SCRM). We performed a Scholarly Network Analysis, combining citation-based and text-based approaches, on 252 articles published from 2000 to 2021 in top-tier journals based on three parameters: AJG ranking and ABS ranking, UT Dallas and FT50 list, and editorial board review. We utilized a hybrid scholarly network analysis by combining citation-based and text-based approaches to understand the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience in the SCRM literature. Specifically, we employed a Bibliographic Coupling Analysis in the research cluster formation stage and a Co-words Analysis in the research cluster interpretation and analysis stage. Our analysis reveals three major research clusters of resilience research in the SCRM literature, namely (1) supply chain network design and optimization, (2) organizational capabilities, and (3) digital technologies. We portray the research process in the last two decades in terms of the exemplar studies, problems studied, commonly used approaches and theories, and solutions provided in each cluster. We then provide a conceptual framework on the conceptualization and antecedents of resilience based on studies in these clusters and highlight potential areas that need to be studied further. Finally, we leverage the concept of abnormal operating performance to propose a new measurement strategy for resilience. This measurement overcomes the limitation of most current measurements that are event-dependent and focus on the resistance or recovery stage - without capturing the growth stage. In conclusion, this study provides a robust literature review through a scholarly network analysis that increases the completeness and accuracy of research cluster identification and analysis to understand conceptualization, antecedents, and measurement of resilience. It also enables us to perform a comprehensive review of resilience research in SCRM literature by including research articles published during the pandemic and connects this development with a plethora of articles published in the last two decades. From the managerial perspective, this study provides practitioners with clarity on the conceptualization and critical success factors of firm resilience from the SCRM perspective.

Keywords: supply chain risk management, organizational resilience, scholarly network analysis, systematic literature review

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

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In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence or pattern recognition/ classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: hybrid systems, hidden markov models, recurrent neural networks, deterministic finite state automata

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Authors: Eduardo Remirez, Luis Moreno

Abstract:

The rapid growth of the private satellite launchers sector is leading the space race. Hence, with the privatization of the sector, all the companies are racing for a more efficient and reliant way to set satellites in orbit. Having detected the current needs for power management in the launcher vehicle industry, the Modular Power Bus is proposed as a technology to revolutionize power management in current and future Launcher Vehicles. The MPBus Project is committed to develop a new power bus architecture combining ejectable batteries with the main bus through intelligent nodes. These nodes are able to communicate between them and a battery controller using an improved, data over DC line technology, expected to reduce the total weight in two main areas: improving the use of the batteries and reducing the total weight due to harness. This would result in less weight for each launch stage increasing the operational satellite payload and reducing cost. These features make the system suitable for a number of launchers.

Keywords: modular power bus, Launcher vehicles, ejectable batteries, intelligent nodes

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Authors: Li Shiyue

Abstract:

In an urban built environment, urban green space is scarce, especially around old residential areas. Due to the innate design deficiency and the non-core location of these areas, they lack green space, and the recreational opportunities of the surrounding residents are not guaranteed. Micro greenspace becomes a "patch" to compensate for the urban function. To realize the renewal and transformation of micro greenspace, and make it meet the use needs of most groups, this paper introduces the concept of inclusive design. Based on relevant research at home and abroad, this paper discusses the connotation and current situation of micro greenspace. Combining with the realistic conditions of China, this paper thinks about the planning path of inclusive renewal from the aspects of selecting micro greenspace transformation potential points and exploring the key points of site renewal. Among them, the key points of site renewal are explored from five angles: land guarantee, systematic coordination, refined design, and shared space creation, to provide useful references for related research and practice.

Keywords: inclusive design, micro greenspace, old city area, space renewal

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: G. S. Walia, H. P. Singh, D. Padma

Abstract:

The integration of wide variety of communication services is made possible with invention of 3G technology. Code Division Multiple Access 2000 operates on various RF channel bandwidths 1.2288 or 3.6864 Mcps (1x or 3x systems). It is a 3G system which offers high bandwidth and wireless broadband services but its efficiency is lowered due to various factors like fading, interference, scattering, absorption etc. This paper investigates the effect of diversity (MRC), roll off factor in Root Raised Cosine (RRC) filter for the BPSK and QPSK modulation schemes. It is possible to transmit data with minimum Inter symbol Interference and within limited bandwidth with proper pulse shaping technique. Bit error rate (BER) performance is analyzed by applying diversity technique by varying the roll off factor for BPSK and QPSK. Roll off factor reduces the ISI and diversity reduces the Fading.

Keywords: CDMA2000, root raised cosine, roll-off factor, ISI, diversity, interference, fading

Procedia PDF Downloads 408