Search results for: prediction modelling

Authors: Guillaume Craveur

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This study shows the opportunity to use numerical tools dedicated to Fire Safety Engineering for the Rolling Stock. Indeed, some lawful requirements can now be demonstrated by using numerical tools. The first part of this study presents the use of modelling evacuation tool to satisfy the criteria of evacuation time for the rolling stock. The buildingEXODUS software is used to model and simulate the evacuation of rolling stock. Firstly, in order to demonstrate the reliability of this tool to calculate the complete evacuation time, a comparative study was achieved between a real test and simulations done with buildingEXODUS. Multiple simulations are performed to capture the stochastic variations in egress times. Then, a new study is done to calculate the complete evacuation time of a train with the same geometry but with a different interior architecture. The second part of this study shows some applications of Computational Fluid Dynamics. This work presents the approach of a multi scales validation of numerical simulations of standardized tests with Fire Dynamics Simulations software developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This work highlights in first the cone calorimeter test, described in the standard ISO 5660, in order to characterize the fire reaction of materials. The aim of this process is to readjust measurement results from the cone calorimeter test in order to create a data set usable at the seat scale. In the second step, the modelisation concerns the fire seat test described in the standard EN 45545-2. The data set obtained thanks to the validation of the cone calorimeter test was set up in the fire seat test. To conclude with the third step, after controlled the data obtained for the seat from the cone calorimeter test, a larger scale simulation with a real part of train is achieved.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, numerical tools, rolling stock, multi-scales validation

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Authors: Levente Kovács, Fruzsina Luca Kézér, Ottó Szenci

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Prediction of the onset of calving and recognizing difficulties at calving has great importance in decreasing neonatal losses and reducing the risk of health problems in the early postpartum period. In this study, changes of rumination time, reticuloruminal pH and temperature were investigated in eutocic (EUT, n = 10) and dystocic (DYS, n = 8) dairy cows around parturition. Rumination time was continuously recorded using an acoustic biotelemetry system, whereas reticuloruminal pH and temperature were recorded using an indwelling and wireless data transmitting system. The recording period lasted from 3 d before calving until 7 days in milk. For the comparison of rumination time and reticuloruminal characteristics between groups, time to return to baseline (the time interval required to return to baseline from the delivery of the calf) and area under the curve (AUC, both for prepartum and postpartum periods) were calculated for each parameter. Rumination time decreased from baseline 28 h before calving both for EUT and DYS cows (P = 0.023 and P = 0.017, respectively). After 20 h before calving, it decreased onwards to reach 32.4 ± 2.3 and 13.2 ± 2.0 min/4 h between 8 and 4 h before delivery in EUT and DYS cows, respectively, and then it decreased below 10 and 5 min during the last 4 h before calving (P = 0.003 and P = 0.008, respectively). Until 12 h after delivery rumination time reached 42.6 ± 2.7 and 51.0 ± 3.1 min/4 h in DYS and EUT dams, respectively, however, AUC and time to return to baseline suggested lower rumination activity in DYS cows than in EUT dams for the 168-h postpartum observational period (P = 0.012 and P = 0.002, respectively). Reticuloruminal pH decreased from baseline 56 h before calving both for EUT and DYS cows (P = 0.012 and P = 0.016, respectively), but did not differ between groups before delivery. In DYS cows, reticuloruminal temperature decreased from baseline 32 h before calving by 0.23 ± 0.02 °C (P = 0.012), whereas in EUT cows such a decrease was found only 20 h before delivery (0.48 ± 0.05 °C, P < 0.01). AUC of reticuloruminal temperature calculated for the prepartum period was greater in EUT cows than in DYS cows (P = 0.042). During the first 4 h after calving, it decreased from 39.7 ± 0.1 to 39.00 ± 0.1 °C and from 39.8 ± 0.1 to 38.8 ± 0.1 °C in EUT and DYS cows, respectively (P < 0.01 for both groups) and reached baseline levels after 35.4 ± 3.4 and 37.8 ± 4.2 h after calving in EUT and DYS cows, respectively. Based on our results, continuous monitoring of changes in rumination time and reticuloruminal temperature seems to be promising in the early detection of cows with a higher risk of dystocia. Depressed postpartum rumination time of DYS cows highlights the importance of the monitoring of cows experiencing difficulties at calving.

Keywords: reticuloruminal pH, reticuloruminal temperature, rumination time, dairy cows, dystocia

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Authors: N. D. Iswarya, M. A. Maluk Mohamed, N. Vijaya

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Grid is infrastructure that allows the deployment of distributed data in large size from multiple locations to reach a common goal. Scheduling data intensive applications becomes challenging as the size of data sets are very huge in size. Only two solutions exist in order to tackle this challenging issue. First, computation which requires huge data sets to be processed can be transferred to the data site. Second, the required data sets can be transferred to the computation site. In the former scenario, the computation cannot be transferred since the servers are storage/data servers with little or no computational capability. Hence, the second scenario can be considered for further exploration. During scheduling, transferring huge data sets from one site to another site requires more network bandwidth. In order to mitigate this issue, this work focuses on incorporating cognitive science in scheduling. Cognitive Science is the study of human brain and its related activities. Current researches are mainly focused on to incorporate cognitive science in various computational modeling techniques. In this work, the problem solving approach of human brain is studied and incorporated during the data intensive scheduling in grid environments. Here, a cognitive engine is designed and deployed in various grid sites. The intelligent agents present in CE will help in analyzing the request and creating the knowledge base. Depending upon the link capacity, decision will be taken whether to transfer data sets or to partition the data sets. Prediction of next request is made by the agents to serve the requesting site with data sets in advance. This will reduce the data availability time and data transfer time. Replica catalog and Meta data catalog created by the agents assist in decision making process.

Keywords: data grid, grid workflow scheduling, cognitive artificial intelligence

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Authors: Didier Auroux, Vladimir Groza

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This work is part of STEEP Marie-Curie ITN project, and it focuses on the identification of unknown parameters of the proposed generic Abrasive WaterJet Milling (AWJM) PDE model, that appears as an ill-posed inverse problem. The necessity of studying this problem comes from the industrial milling applications where the possibility to predict and model the final surface with high accuracy is one of the primary tasks in the absence of any knowledge of the model parameters that should be used. In this framework, we propose the identification of model parameters by minimizing a cost function, measuring the difference between experimental and numerical solutions. The adjoint approach based on corresponding Lagrangian gives the opportunity to find out the unknowns of the AWJM model and their optimal values that could be used to reproduce the required trench profile. Due to the complexity of the nonlinear problem and a large number of model parameters, we use an automatic differentiation software tool (TAPENADE) for the adjoint computations. By adding noise to the artificial data, we show that in fact the parameter identification problem is highly unstable and strictly depends on input measurements. Regularization terms could be effectively used to deal with the presence of data noise and to improve the identification correctness. Based on this approach we present results in 2D and 3D of the identification of the model parameters and of the surface prediction both with self-generated data and measurements obtained from the real production. Considering different types of model and measurement errors allows us to obtain acceptable results for manufacturing and to expect the proper identification of unknowns. This approach also gives us the ability to distribute the research on more complex cases and consider different types of model and measurement errors as well as 3D time-dependent model with variations of the jet feed speed.

Keywords: Abrasive Waterjet Milling, inverse problem, model parameters identification, regularization

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Authors: Idris M. Olatunde, Kareem B.

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In manufacturing systems, especially job shops, service performance is a key factor that determines customer satisfaction. Service performance depends not only on the quality of the output but on the delivery lead times as well. Besides product quality enhancement, delivery lead time must be minimized for optimal patronage. Quoting accurate due dates is sine quo non for job shop operational survival in a global competitive environment. Quoting accurate due dates in job shops has been a herculean task that nearly defiled solutions from many methods employed due to complex jobs routing nature of the system. This class of NP-hard problems possessed no rigid algorithms that can give an optimal solution. Jobshop operational problem is more complex in developing nations due to some peculiar factors. Operational complexity in job shops emanated from political instability, poor economy, technological know-how, and the non-promising socio-political environment. The mentioned exogenous factors were hardly considered in the previous studies on scheduling problem related to due date determination in job shops. This study has filled the gap created in the past studies by developing a dynamic model that incorporated the exogenous factors for accurate determination of due dates for varying jobs complexity. Real data from six job shops selected from the different part of Nigeria, were used to test the efficacy of the model, and the outcomes were analyzed statistically. The results of the analyzes showed that the model is more promising in determining accurate due dates than the traditional models deployed by many job shops in terms of patronage and lead times minimization.

Keywords: due dates prediction, improved performance, customer satisfaction, dynamic model, exogenous factors, job shops

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Authors: Salma Loukman, Reda Benmrid, Najat Bouchmaa, Hicham Hboub, Rachid El Fatimy, Rachid Benhida

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In this study, it use integrated transcriptomic datasets from the GEO repository with the purpose of investigating immune dysregulation in COVID-19. Thus, in this context, we decided to be focused on NK cells and CD14+ monocytes gene expression, considering datasets GSE165461 and GSE198256, respectively. Other datasets with PBMCs, lung, olfactory, and sensory epithelium and lymph were used to provide robust validation for our results. This approach gave an integrated view of the immune responses in COVID-19, pointing out a set of potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets with special regard to standards of physiological conditions. IFI27, MKI67, CENPF, MBP, HBA2, TMEM158, THBD, HBA1, LHFPL2, SLA, and AC104564.3 were identified as key genes from our analysis that have critical biological processes related to inflammation, immune regulation, oxidative stress, and metabolic processes. Consequently, such processes are important in understanding the heterogeneous clinical manifestations of COVID-19—from acute to long-term effects now known as 'long COVID'. Subsequent validation with additional datasets consolidated these genes as robust biomarkers with an important role in the diagnosis of COVID-19 and the prediction of its severity. Moreover, their enrichment in key pathophysiological pathways presented them as potential targets for therapeutic intervention.The results provide insight into the molecular dynamics of COVID-19 caused by cells such as NK cells and other monocytes. Thus, this study constitutes a solid basis for targeted diagnostic and therapeutic development and makes relevant contributions to ongoing research efforts toward better management and mitigation of the pandemic.

Keywords: SARS-COV-2, RNA-seq, biomarkers, severity, long COVID-19, bio analysis

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Authors: Gajanan M. Sonwane

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Nowadays, the entire pharmaceutical industry is facing the challenge of increasing efficiency and innovation. The major hurdles are the growing cost of research and development and a concurrent stagnating number of new chemical entities (NCEs). Hence, the challenge is to select the most druggable targets and to search the equivalent drug-like compounds, which also possess specific pharmacokinetic and toxicological properties that allow them to be developed as drugs. The present research work includes the studies of developing new anticancer heterocycles by using molecular modeling techniques. The heterocycles synthesized through such methodology are much effective as various physicochemical parameters have been already studied and the structure has been optimized for its best fit in the receptor. Hence, on the basis of the literature survey and considering the need to develop newer anticancer agents, new phenazinamine derivatives were designed by subjecting the nucleus to molecular modeling, viz., GQSAR analysis and docking studies. Simultaneously, these designed derivatives were subjected to in silico prediction of biological activity through PASS studies and then in silico toxicity risk assessment studies. In PASS studies, it was found that all the derivatives exhibited a good spectrum of biological activities confirming its anticancer potential. The toxicity risk assessment studies revealed that all the derivatives obey Lipinski’s rule. Amongst these series, compounds 4c, 5b and 6c were found to possess logP and drug-likeness values comparable with the standard Imatinib (used for anticancer activity studies) and also with the standard drug methotrexate (used for antimitotic activity studies). One of the most notable mutations is the threonine to isoleucine mutation at codon 315 (T315I), which is known to be resistant to all currently available TKI. Enzyme assay planned for confirmation of target selective activity.

Keywords: drug design, tyrosine kinases, anticancer, Phenazinamine

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Authors: Maryam Zarabian, Hector Guzman, Pedro Pereira-Almao, Abraham Fapojuwo

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Dry reforming of methane (DRM) has sparked significant industrial and scientific interest not only as a viable alternative for addressing the environmental concerns of two main contributors of the greenhouse effect, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), but also produces syngas, i.e., a mixture of hydrogen (H₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) utilized by a wide range of downstream processes as a feedstock for other chemical productions. In this study, we develop an AI-enable syngas production model to tackle the problem of achieving an equivalent H₂/CO ratio [1:1] with respect to the most efficient conversion. Firstly, the unsupervised density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSAN) algorithm removes outlier data points from the original experimental dataset. Then, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN) models employ the error-free dataset to predict the DRM results. DNN models inherently would not be able to obtain accurate predictions without a huge dataset. To cope with this limitation, we employ reusing pre-trained layers’ approaches such as transfer learning and greedy layer-wise pretraining. Compared to the other deep models (i.e., pure deep model and transferred deep model), the greedy layer-wise pre-trained deep model provides the most accurate prediction as well as similar accuracy to the RF model with R² values 1.00, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, and 0.999 for the total outlet flow, H₂/CO ratio, H₂ yield, CO yield, CH₄ conversion, and CO₂ conversion outputs, respectively.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, dry reforming of methane, artificial neural network, deep learning, machine learning, transfer learning, greedy layer-wise pretraining

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Authors: K. Geetha Ramesh, A. Ramachandraiah

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In an internal building space, daylight becomes a powerful source of illumination. The challenge therefore, is to develop means of utilizing both direct and diffuse natural light in buildings while maintaining and improving occupant's visual comfort, particularly at greater distances from the windows throwing daylight. The geometrical features of windows in a building have significant effect in providing daylight. The main goal of this research is to develop an innovative window geometry, which will effectively provide the daylight component adequately together with internal reflected component(IRC) and also the external reflected component(ERC), if any. This involves exploration of a light redirecting system using fractal geometry for windows, in order to penetrate and distribute daylight more uniformly to greater depths, minimizing heat gain and glare, and also to reduce building energy use substantially. Of late the creation of fractal geometrical window and the occurrence of daylight illuminance due to such windows is becoming an interesting study. The amount of daylight can change significantly based on the window geometry and sky conditions. This leads to the (i) exploration of various fractal patterns suitable for window designs, and (ii) quantification of the effect of chosen fractal window based on the relationship between the fractal pattern, size, orientation and glazing properties for optimizing daylighting. There are a lot of natural lighting applications able to predict the behaviour of a light in a room through a traditional opening - a regular window. The conventional prediction methodology involves the evaluation of the daylight factor, the internal reflected component and the external reflected component. Having evaluated the daylight illuminance level for a conventional window, the technical performance of a fractal window for an optimal daylighting is to be studied and compared with that of a regular window. The methodologies involved are highlighted in this paper.

Keywords: daylighting, fractal geometry, fractal window, optimization

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Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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Authors: Di Yao, Gunther Prokop, Kay Buttner

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Dynamic parameters, including the center of gravity, mass and inertia moments of vehicle, play an essential role in vehicle simulation, collision test and real-time control of vehicle active systems. To identify the important vehicle dynamic parameters, a systematic parameter identification procedure is studied in this work. In the first step of the procedure, a conceptual parallel manipulator (virtual test rig), which possesses three rotational degrees-of-freedom, is firstly proposed. To realize kinematic characteristics of the conceptual parallel manipulator, the kinematic analysis consists of inverse kinematic and singularity architecture is carried out. Based on the Euler's rotation equations for rigid body dynamics, the dynamic model of parallel manipulator and derivation of measurement matrix for parameter identification are presented subsequently. In order to reduce the sensitivity of parameter identification to measurement noise and other unexpected disturbances, a parameter optimization process of searching for optimal exciting trajectory of parallel manipulator is conducted in the following section. For this purpose, the 321-Euler-angles defined by parameterized finite-Fourier-series are primarily used to describe the general exciting trajectory of parallel manipulator. To minimize the condition number of measurement matrix for achieving better parameter identification accuracy, the unknown coefficients of parameterized finite-Fourier-series are estimated by employing an iterative algorithm based on MATLAB®. Meanwhile, the iterative algorithm will ensure the parallel manipulator still keeps in an achievable working status during the execution of optimal exciting trajectory. It is showed that the proposed procedure and methods in this work can effectively identify the vehicle dynamic parameters and could be an important application of parallel manipulator in the fields of parameter identification and test rig development.

Keywords: parameter identification, parallel manipulator, singularity architecture, dynamic modelling, exciting trajectory

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Briony Gray, Glenn Simpson, Hajira Dambha-Miller, Andrew Farmer

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Multimorbidity may be strongly affected by a variety of conditions, factors, and variables requiring higher demands on health and social care services, infrastructure, and expenses. Holding one or more conditions increases one’s risk for development of future conditions; with patients over 65 years old at highest risk. Psychosocial factors such as anxiety and depression are rising exponentially globally, which has been amplified by the COVID19 pandemic. These are highly correlated and predict poorer outcomes when held in coexistence and increase the likelihood of comorbid physical health conditions. While possible future reform of social and healthcare systems may help to alleviate some of these mounting pressures, there remains an urgent need to better understand the potential role health behaviours and psychosocial conditions - such as anxiety and depression – may have on aging populations. Using the UK healthcare scene as a lens for analysis, this study uses big data collected in the UK Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) to examine the role of anxiety and depression in ageing populations (65yrs+). Using logistic regression modelling, results identify the 10 most significant variables correlated with both anxiety and depression from data categorised into the areas of health behaviour, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and life satisfaction (each demonstrated through literature review to be of significance). These are compared with wider global research findings with the aim of better understanding the areas in which social and healthcare reform can support multimorbidity interventions, making suggestions for improved patient-centred care. Scope of future research is outlined, which includes analysis of 59 total multimorbidity variables from the ELSA dataset, going beyond anxiety and depression.

Keywords: multimorbidity, health behaviours, patient centred care, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Farzad Danaei, Yilmaz Akkaya

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In many civil engineering applications, especially in the construction of large concrete structures, the early age behavior of concrete has shown to be a crucial problem. The uneven rise in temperature within the concrete in these constructions is the fundamental issue for quality control. Therefore, developing accurate and fast temperature prediction models is essential. The thermal properties of concrete fluctuate over time as it hardens, but taking into account all of these fluctuations makes numerical models more complex. Experimental measurement of the thermal properties at the laboratory conditions also can not accurately predict the variance of these properties at site conditions. Therefore, specific heat capacity and the heat conductivity coefficient are two variables that are considered constant values in many of the models previously recommended. The proposed equations demonstrate that these two quantities are linearly decreasing as cement hydrates, and their value are related to the degree of hydration. The effects of changing the thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity values on the maximum temperature and the time it takes for concrete to reach that temperature are examined in this study using numerical sensibility analysis, and the results are compared to models that take a fixed value for these two thermal properties. The current study is conducted in 7 different mix designs of concrete with varying amounts of supplementary cementitious materials (fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag). It is concluded that the maximum temperature will not change as a result of the constant conductivity coefficient, but variable specific heat capacity must be taken into account, also about duration when a concrete's central node reaches its max value again variable specific heat capacity can have a considerable effect on the final result. Also, the usage of GGBFS has more influence compared to fly ash.

Keywords: early-age concrete, mass concrete, specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity coefficient

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Authors: H. Dakhlaoui, D. Ruelland, Y. Tramblay, Z. Bargaoui

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To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that are able to be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. This study aims at assessing the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in Northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability. Their robustness was evaluated according to a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period regarding simultaneously precipitation and temperature conditions. The studied catchments are situated in a region where climate change is likely to have significant impacts on runoff and they already suffer from scarcity of water resources. They cover the main hydrographical basins of Northern Tunisia (High Medjerda, Zouaraâ, Ichkeul and Cap bon), which produce the majority of surface water resources in Tunisia. The streamflow regime of the basins can be considered as natural since these basins are located upstream from storage-dams and in areas where withdrawals are negligible. A 30-year common period (1970‒2000) was considered to capture a large spread of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while the evaluation of model transferability is performed according to the Nash-Suttfliff efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to have similar behaviour under climate variability. Models prove a better ability to simulate the runoff pattern when transferred toward wetter periods compared to the case when transferred to drier periods. The limits of transferability are beyond -20% of precipitation and +1.5 °C of temperature in comparison with the calibration period. The deterioration of model robustness could in part be explained by the climate dependency of some parameters.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, hydro-climate variability, model robustness, uncertainty, Tunisia

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Authors: Rohit Agarwal, Mrityunjay K. Singh, Soma Ghosh, Ramesh Shankar, Biswajit Ghosh, Vinay V. Mahashabde

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Thermo-mechanical treatment (TMT) of rebars is a critical process to impart sufficient strength and ductility to rebar. TMT rebars are produced by the Tempcore process, involves an 'in-line' heat treatment in which hot rolled bar (temperature is around 1080°C) is passed through water boxes where it is quenched under high pressure water jets (temperature is around 25°C). The quenching rate dictates composite structure consisting (four non-homogenously distributed phases of rebar microstructure) pearlite-ferrite, bainite, and tempered martensite (from core to rim). The ferrite and pearlite phases present at core induce ductility to rebar while martensitic rim induces appropriate strength. The TMT process is difficult to model as it brings multitude of complex physics such as heat transfer, highly turbulent fluid flow, multicomponent and multiphase flow present in the control volume. Additionally the presence of film boiling regime (above Leidenfrost point) due to steam formation adds complexity to domain. A coupled heat transfer and fluid flow model based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been developed at product technology division of Tata Steel, India which efficiently predicts temperature profile and percentage martensite rim thickness of rebar during quenching process. The model has been validated with 16 mm rolling of New Bar mill (NBM) plant of Tata Steel Limited, India. Furthermore, based on the scenario analyses, optimal configuration of nozzles was found which helped in subsequent increase in rolling speed.

Keywords: boiling, critical heat flux, nozzles, thermo-mechanical treatment

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Authors: Madhur Verma, Meena Rajput, Kamal Kishore

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Background: The general view that obesity is a problem of prosperous Western countries has been repealed with substantial evidence showing that middle-income countries like India are now at the heart of a fat explosion. Neck circumference has evolved as a promising index to measure obesity, because of the convenience of its use, even in culture sensitive population. Objectives: To determine whether neck circumference (NC) was associated with overweight and obesity and contributed to the prediction like other classical anthropometric indices. Methodology: Cross-sectional study consisting of 1080 adults (> 19 years) selected through Multi-stage random sampling between August 2013 and September 2014 using the pretested semi-structured questionnaire. After recruitment, the demographic and anthropometric parameters [BMI, Waist & Hip Circumference (WC, HC), Waist to hip ratio (WHR), waist to height ratio (WHtR), body fat percentage (BF %), neck circumference (NC)] were recorded & calculated as per standard procedures. Analysis was done using appropriate statistical tests. (SPSS, version 21.) Results: Mean age of study participants was 44.55+15.65 years. Overall prevalence of overweight & obesity as per modified criteria for Asian Indians (BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2) was 49.62% (Females-51.48%; Males-47.77%). Also, number of participants having high WHR, WHtR, BF%, WC & NC was 827(76.57%), 530(49.07%), 513(47.5%), 537(49.72%) & 376(34.81%) respectively. Variation of NC, BMI & BF% with age was non- significant. In both the genders, as per the Pearson’s correlational analysis, neck circumference was positively correlated with BMI (men, r=0.670 {p < 0.05}; women, r=0.564 {p < 0.05}), BF% (men, r=0.407 {p < 0.05}; women, r= 0.283 {p < 0.05}), WC (men, r=0.598{p < 0.05}; women, r=0.615 {p < 0.05}), HC (men, r=0.512{p < 0.05}; women, r=0.523{p < 0.05}), WHR (men, r= 0.380{p > 0.05}; women, r=0.022{p > 0.05}) & WHtR (men, r=0.318 {p < 0.05}; women, r=0.396{p < 0.05}). On ROC analysis, NC showed good discriminatory power to identify obesity with AUC (AUC for males: 0.822 & females: 0.873; p- value < 0.001) with maximum sensitivity and specificity at a cut-off value of 36.55 cms for males & 34.05cms for females. Conclusion: NC has fair validity as a community-based screener for overweight and obese individuals in the study context and has also correlated well with other classical indices.

Keywords: neck circumference, obesity, anthropometric indices, body fat percentage

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Authors: Umairah Natasya Binti Mohd Omeershffudin, Suresh Kumar

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Klebsiella pneumoniae, a Gram-negative enteric bacterium that causes nosocomial and urinary tract infections. Particular concern is the global emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae. Characterization of antibiotic resistance determinants at the genomic level plays a critical role in understanding, and potentially controlling, the spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens. In this study, drug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae strain 825795-1 was investigated with extensive computational approaches aimed at identifying novel drug targets among hypothetical proteins. We have analyzed 1099 hypothetical proteins available in genome. We have used in-silico genome subtraction methodology to design potential and pathogen-specific drug targets against Klebsiella pneumoniae. We employed bioinformatics tools to subtract the strain-specific paralogous and host-specific homologous sequences from the bacterial proteome. The sorted 645 proteins were further refined to identify the essential genes in the pathogenic bacterium using the database of essential genes (DEG). We found 135 unique essential proteins in the target proteome that could be utilized as novel targets to design newer drugs. Further, we identified 49 cytoplasmic protein as potential drug targets through sub-cellular localization prediction. Further, we investigated these proteins in the DrugBank databases, and 11 of the unique essential proteins showed druggability according to the FDA approved drug bank databases with diverse broad-spectrum property. The results of this study will facilitate discovery of new drugs against Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Keywords: pneumonia, drug target, hypothetical protein, subtractive genomics

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Authors: Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Tobias Landmann, Richard Kyalo, George Ong’amo, Bruno Le Ru

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is a major staple food crop in Africa, particularly in the eastern region of the continent. The maize growing area in Africa spans over 25 million ha and 84% of rural households in Africa cultivate maize mainly as a means to generate food and income. Average maize yields in Sub Saharan Africa are 1.4 t/ha as compared to global average of 2.5–3.9 t/ha due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In East Africa, yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% to 40% of the total production. The objective of the present study was therefore to predict stem borer larvae density in maize fields using RapidEye reflectance data and generalized linear models (GLMs). RapidEye images were captured for a test site in Kenya (Machakos) in January and in February 2015. Stem borer larva numbers were modeled using GLMs assuming Poisson (Po) and negative binomial (NB) distributions with error with log arithmetic link. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were employed to assess the models performance using a leave one-out cross-validation approach. Results showed that NB models outperformed Po ones in all study sites. RMSE and RPD ranged between 0.95 and 2.70, and between 2.39 and 6.81, respectively. Overall, all models performed similar when used the January and the February image data. We conclude that reflectance data from RapidEye data can be used to estimate stem borer larvae density. The developed models could to improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers using various integrated pest management (IPM) protocols.

Keywords: maize, stem borers, density, RapidEye, GLM

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Authors: Emir Alaca, Hasbi Apaydin, Rohullah Rahmatullah, Necibe Fusun Oyman Serteller

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In recent years, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) have found extensive applications in various industrial sectors, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics, due to their high performance and low losses. Accurate mathematical modeling of PMSMs is crucial for advanced studies in electric machines. To enhance the effectiveness of graduate-level education, incorporating virtual or real experiments becomes essential to reinforce acquired knowledge. Virtual laboratories have gained popularity as cost-effective alternatives to physical testing, mitigating the risks associated with electrical machine experiments. This study presents a MATLAB-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) for PMSMs. The GUI offers a visual interface that allows users to observe variations in motor outputs corresponding to different input parameters. It enables users to explore healthy motor conditions and the effects of short-circuit faults in the one-phase winding. Additionally, the interface includes menus through which users can access equivalent circuits related to the motor and gain hands-on experience with the mathematical equations used in synchronous motor calculations. The primary objective of this paper is to enhance the learning experience of graduate and doctoral students by providing a GUI-based approach in laboratory studies. This interactive platform empowers students to examine and analyze motor outputs by manipulating input parameters, facilitating a deeper understanding of PMSM operation and control.

Keywords: magnet synchronous motor, mathematical modelling, education tools, winding inter-turn fault

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Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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Authors: Swee Yang Low, Dong Eon Kim, Canh Tien Trinh Nguyen, Yixiong Cai, Shie-Yui Liong

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Nee Soon swamp forest is one of the last vestiges of tropical wetland in Singapore. Understanding the hydrological regime of the swamp forest and implications for water quality is critical to guide stakeholders in implementing effective measures to preserve the wetland against anthropogenic impacts. In particular, although current field measurement data do not indicate a concern with organic pollution, reviewing the ways in which the wetland responds to elevated organic waste influx (and the corresponding impact on dissolved oxygen, DO) can help identify potential hotspots, and the impact on the outflow from the catchment which drains into downstream controlled watercourses. An integrated water quality model is therefore developed in this study to investigate spatial and temporal concentrations of DO levels and organic pollution (as quantified by biochemical oxygen demand, BOD) within the catchment’s river network under hypothetical, projected scenarios of spiked upstream inflow. The model was developed using MIKE HYDRO for modelling the study domain, as well as the MIKE ECO Lab numerical laboratory for characterising water quality processes. Model parameters are calibrated against time series of observed discharges at three measurement stations along the river network. Over a simulation period of April 2014 to December 2015, the calibrated model predicted that a continuous spiked inflow of 400 mg/l BOD will elevate downstream concentrations at the catchment outlet to an average of 12 mg/l, from an assumed nominal baseline BOD of 1 mg/l. Levels of DO were decreased from an initial 5 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l. Though a scenario of spiked organic influx at the swamp forest’s undeveloped upstream sub-catchments is currently unlikely to occur, the outcomes nevertheless will be beneficial for future planning studies in understanding how the water quality of the catchment will be impacted should urban redevelopment works be considered around the swamp forest.

Keywords: hydrology, modeling, water quality, wetland

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Authors: Ben Hadj Hassen Sameh, Gaillard Corentin, Andrew Parker, Kristine Krug

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Perceptual decisions about sequences of sensory stimuli often show serial dependence. The behavioural choice on one trial is often affected by the choice on previous trials. We investigated whether the neuronal signals in extrastriate visual area V5/MT on preceding trials might influence choice on the current trial and thereby reveal the neuronal mechanisms of sequential choice effects. We analysed data from 30 single neurons recorded from V5/MT in three Rhesus monkeys making sequential choices about the direction of rotation of a three-dimensional cylinder. We focused exclusively on the responses of neurons that showed significant choice-related firing (mean choice probability =0.73) while the monkey viewed perceptually ambiguous stimuli. Application of a wavelet transform to the choice-related firing revealed differences in the frequency band of neuronal activity that depended on whether the previous trial resulted in a correct choice for an unambiguous stimulus that was in the neuron’s preferred direction (low alpha and high beta and gamma) or non-preferred direction (high alpha and low beta and gamma). To probe this in further detail, we applied a regularized linear decoder to predict the choice for an ambiguous trial by referencing the neuronal activity of the preceding unambiguous trial. Neuronal activity on a previous trial provided a significant prediction of the current choice (61% correc, 95%Cl~52%t), even when limiting analysis to preceding trials that were correct and rewarded. These findings provide a potential neuronal signature of sequential choice effects in the primate visual cortex.

Keywords: perception, decision making, attention, decoding, visual system

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Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

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The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Samuel Ahamefula Mba

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Fluid turbulence is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon that occurs in various natural and industrial processes. Understanding turbulence remains a challenging task due to its intricate nature. One approach to gain insights into turbulence is through the study of entropy, which quantifies the disorder or randomness of a system. This research presents a numerical investigation of entropy signatures in fluid turbulence. The work is to develop a numerical framework to describe and analyse fluid turbulence in terms of entropy. This decomposes the turbulent flow field into different scales, ranging from large energy-containing eddies to small dissipative structures, thus establishing a correlation between entropy and other turbulence statistics. This entropy-based framework provides a powerful tool for understanding the underlying mechanisms driving turbulence and its impact on various phenomena. This work necessitates the derivation of the Poisson equation for pressure transformation of Navier-Stokes equation and using Chebyshev-Finite Difference techniques to effectively resolve it. To carry out the mathematical analysis, consider bounded domains with smooth solutions and non-periodic boundary conditions. To address this, a hybrid computational approach combining direct numerical simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulation with Wall Models (LES-WM) is utilized to perform extensive simulations of turbulent flows. The potential impact ranges from industrial process optimization and improved prediction of weather patterns.

Keywords: turbulence, Navier-Stokes equation, Poisson pressure equation, numerical investigation, Chebyshev-finite difference, hybrid computational approach, large Eddy simulation with wall models, direct numerical simulation

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Authors: Christopher B. Obida, George A. Blackburn, James D. Whyatt, Kirk T. Semple

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In many regions of the world, especially in developing countries, river network data are outdated or completely absent, yet such information is critical for supporting important functions such as flood mitigation efforts, land use and transportation planning, and the management of water resources. In this study, a method was developed for delineating river networks using Sentinel 1 imagery. Unsupervised classification was applied to multi-temporal Sentinel 1 data to discriminate water bodies from other land covers then the outputs were combined to generate a single persistent water bodies product. A thinning algorithm was then used to delineate river centre lines, which were converted into vector features and built into a topologically structured geometric network. The complex river system of the Niger Delta was used to compare the performance of the Sentinel-based method against alternative freely available water body products from United States Geological Survey, European Space Agency and OpenStreetMap and a river network derived from a Shuttle Rader Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model. From both raster-based and vector-based accuracy assessments, it was found that the Sentinel-based river network products were superior to the comparator data sets by a substantial margin. The geometric river network that was constructed permitted a flow routing analysis which is important for a variety of environmental management and planning applications. The extracted network will potentially be applied for modelling dispersion of hydrocarbon pollutants in Ogoniland, a part of the Niger Delta. The approach developed in this study holds considerable potential for generating up to date, detailed river network data for the many countries where such data are deficient.

Keywords: Sentinel 1, image processing, river delineation, large scale mapping, data comparison, geometric network

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Avoseh Funmilola, Osman Khalid, Wayne Nelson, Paramespri Naidoo, Deresh Ramjugernath

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The increasing global atmospheric temperature is of great concern and this has led to the development of technologies to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Flue gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion are major sources of greenhouse gases. One of the ways to reduce the emission of CO₂ from flue gases is by post combustion capture process and this can be done by absorbing the gas into suitable chemical solvents before emitting the gas into the atmosphere. Alkanolamines are promising solvents for this capture process. Vapour liquid equilibrium of CO₂-alkanolamine systems is often represented by CO₂ loading and partial pressure of CO₂ without considering the liquid phase. The liquid phase of this system is a complex one comprising of 9 species. Online analysis of the process is important to monitor the concentrations of the liquid phase reacting and product species. Liquid phase analysis of CO₂-diethanolamine (DEA) solution was performed by attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. A robust Calibration was performed for the CO₂-aqueous DEA system prior to an online monitoring experiment. The partial least square regression method was used for the analysis of the calibration spectra obtained. The models obtained were used for prediction of DEA and CO₂ concentrations in the online monitoring experiment. The experiment was performed with a newly built recirculating experimental set up in the laboratory. The set up consist of a 750 ml equilibrium cell and ATR-FTIR liquid flow cell. Measurements were performed at 400°C. The results obtained indicated that the FTIR spectroscopy combined with Partial least square method is an effective tool for online monitoring of speciation.

Keywords: ATR-FTIR, CO₂ capture, online analysis, PLS regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Michael Lousis

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The systematic identification of the most conspicuous and significant errors made by learners during three-years of testing of their progress in learning Arithmetic throughout the development of the Kassel Project in England and Greece was accomplished. How much retentive these errors were over three-years in the officially provided school instruction of Arithmetic in these countries has also been shown. The learners’ errors in Arithmetic stemmed from a sample, which was comprised of two hundred (200) English students and one hundred and fifty (150) Greek students. The sample was purposefully selected according to the students’ participation in each testing session in the development of the three-year project, in both domains simultaneously in Arithmetic and Algebra. Specific teaching practices have been invented and are presented in this study for subverting these learners’ errors, which were found out to be retentive to the level of the nationally provided mathematical education of each country. The invention and the development of these proposed teaching practices were founded on the rationality of the theoretical accounts concerning the explanation, prediction and control of the errors, on the conceptual metaphor and on an analysis, which tried to identify the required cognitive components and skills of the specific tasks, in terms of Psychology and Cognitive Science as applied to information-processing. The aim of the implementation of these instructional practices is not only the subversion of these errors but the achievement of the mathematical competence, as this was defined to be constituted of three elements: appropriate representations - appropriate meaning - appropriately developed schemata. However, praxis is of paramount importance, because there is no independent of science ‘real-truth’ and because praxis serves as quality control when it takes the form of a cognitive method.

Keywords: arithmetic, cognitive science, cognitive psychology, information-processing paradigm, Kassel project, level of the nationally provided mathematical education, praxis, remedial mathematical teaching practices, retentiveness of errors

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Authors: Yuxiang Pan, Yong Qiu, Chenlei Gu, Ping Wang

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In the past decade, three-dimensional (3D) tumor cell models have attracted increasing interest in the field of drug screening due to their great advantages in simulating more accurately the heterogeneous tumor behavior in vivo. Drug sensitivity testing based on 3D tumor cell models can provide more reliable in vivo efficacy prediction. The gold standard fluorescence staining is hard to achieve the real-time and label-free monitoring of the viability of 3D tumor cell models. In this study, micro-groove impedance sensor (MGIS) was specially developed for dynamic and non-invasive monitoring of 3D cell viability. 3D tumor cells were trapped in the micro-grooves with opposite gold electrodes for the in-situ impedance measurement. The change of live cell number would cause inversely proportional change to the impedance magnitude of the entire cell/matrigel to construct and reflect the proliferation and apoptosis of 3D cells. It was confirmed that 3D cell viability detected by the MGIS platform is highly consistent with the standard live/dead staining. Furthermore, the accuracy of MGIS platform was demonstrated quantitatively using 3D lung cancer model and sophisticated drug sensitivity testing. In addition, the parameters of micro-groove impedance chip processing and measurement experiments were optimized in details. The results demonstrated that the MGIS and 3D cell-based biosensor and would be a promising platform to improve the efficiency and accuracy of cell-based anti-cancer drug screening in vitro.

Keywords: micro-groove impedance sensor, 3D cell-based biosensors, 3D cell viability, micro-electromechanical systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Yusuf Dawa Sidi, Abdulrahman Bulama Bizi

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The most dependable and precise source of climate data is often gauge observation. However, long-term records of gauge observations, on the other hand, are unavailable in many regions around the world. In recent years, a number of gridded climate datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions have emerged as viable alternatives to gauge-based measurements. However, it is crucial to thoroughly evaluate their performance prior to utilising them in hydroclimatic applications. Therefore, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets in accurately estimating precipitation and temperature patterns within the dry region of Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. The study employs widely used statistical metrics and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to effectively capture the monthly variability of precipitation and temperature and inter-annual anomalies in rainfall. The findings suggest that CRU exhibited superior performance compared to NASA POWER in terms of monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, demonstrating a high correlation and much lower error values for both RMSE and MAE. Nevertheless, NASA POWER has exhibited a moderate agreement with gauge observations in accurately replicating monthly precipitation. The analysis of the SPI reveals that the CRU product exhibits superior performance compared to NASA POWER in accurately reflecting inter-annual variations in rainfall anomalies. The findings of this study indicate that the CRU gridded product is often regarded as the most favourable gridded precipitation product.

Keywords: CRU, climate change, precipitation, SPI, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 92