Search results for: supply chain resilience
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4286

Search results for: supply chain resilience

1136 Trends in the Incidence of Bloodstream Infections in Patients with Hematological Malignancies in the Period 1991–2012

Authors: V. N. Chebotkevich, E. E. Schetinkina, V. V. Burylev, E. I. Kaytandzhan, N. P. Stizhak

Abstract:

Objective: Blood stream infections (BSI) are severe, life-threatening illness for immuno compromised patients with hematological malignancies. We report the trend in blood-stream infections in this group of patients in the period 1991-2013. Methods: A total of 4742 blood samples investigated. All blood cultures were incubated in a continuous monitoring system for 7 days before discarding negative. On signaled positive, organism was identified by conventional methods. The Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for the indication of human herpes virus 6 (HHV-6), Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). Results: Between 1991 and 2001 the incidence of Gram-positive bacteria (Staphylococcus epidermidis, Staphylococcus aureus) being the most common germs isolated (70,9%) were as Gram-negative rods (Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp., Pseudomonas spp.) – 29,1%. In next decade 2002-2012 the number of Gram-negative bacteria was increased up to 40.2%. It is shown that the incidence of bacteremia was significantly more frequent at the background of detectable Cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus-specific DNA in blood. Over recent years, an increased frequency of micro mycetes was registered in blood of the patients with hematological malignancies (Candida spp. was predominant). Conclusion: Accurate and timely detection of BSI is important in determining appropriate treatment of infectious complications in patients with hematological malignancies. The isolation of Staphylococcus epidermidis from blood cultures remains a clinical dilemma for physicians and microbiologists. But in many cases this agent is of the clinical significance in immunocompromised patients with hematological malignancies. The role of CMV and EBV in development of bacteremia was demonstrated.

Keywords: infectious complications, blood stream infections, bacteremia, hemoblastosis

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1135 The Strategic Entering Time of a Commerce Platform

Authors: Chia-li Wang

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The surge of service and commerce platforms, such as e-commerce and internet-of-things, have rapidly changed our lives. How to avoid the congestion and get the job done in the platform is now a common problem that many people encounter every day. This requires platform users to make decisions about when to enter the platform. To that end, we investigate the strategic entering time of a simple platform containing random numbers of buyers and sellers of some item. Upon a trade, the buyer and the seller gain respective profits, yet they pay the cost of waiting in the platform. To maximize their expected payoffs from trading, both buyers and sellers can choose their entering times. This creates an interesting and practical framework of a game that is played among buyers, among sellers, and between them. That is, a strategy employed by a player is not only against players of its type but also a response to those of the other type, and, thus, a strategy profile is composed of strategies of buyers and sellers. The players' best response, the Nash equilibrium (NE) strategy profile, is derived by a pair of differential equations, which, in turn, are used to establish its existence and uniqueness. More importantly, its structure sheds valuable insights of how the entering strategy of one side (buyers or sellers) is affected by the entering behavior of the other side. These results provide a base for the study of dynamic pricing for stochastic demand-supply imbalances. Finally, comparisons between the social welfares (the sum of the payoffs incurred by individual participants) obtained by the optimal strategy and by the NE strategy are conducted for showing the efficiency loss relative to the socially optimal solution. That should help to manage the platform better.

Keywords: double-sided queue, non-cooperative game, nash equilibrium, price of anarchy

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1134 Critically Analyzing the Application of Big Data for Smart Transportation: A Case Study of Mumbai

Authors: Tanuj Joshi

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Smart transportation is fast emerging as a solution to modern cities’ approach mobility issues, delayed emergency response rate and high congestion on streets. Present day scenario with Google Maps, Waze, Yelp etc. demonstrates how information and communications technologies controls the intelligent transportation system. This intangible and invisible infrastructure is largely guided by the big data analytics. On the other side, the exponential increase in Indian urban population has intensified the demand for better services and infrastructure to satisfy the transportation needs of its citizens. No doubt, India’s huge internet usage is looked as an important resource to guide to achieve this. However, with a projected number of over 40 billion objects connected to the Internet by 2025, the need for systems to handle massive volume of data (big data) also arises. This research paper attempts to identify the ways of exploiting the big data variables which will aid commuters on Indian tracks. This study explores real life inputs by conducting survey and interviews to identify which gaps need to be targeted to better satisfy the customers. Several experts at Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA), Mumbai Metro and Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST) were interviewed regarding the Information Technology (IT) systems currently in use. The interviews give relevant insights and requirements into the workings of public transportation systems whereas the survey investigates the macro situation.

Keywords: smart transportation, mobility issue, Mumbai transportation, big data, data analysis

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1133 Agroforestry Systems: A Sustainable Strategy of the Agricultural Systems of Cumaral (Meta), Colombia

Authors: Amanda Silva Parra, Dayra Yisel García Ramirez

Abstract:

In developing countries, agricultural "modernization" has led to a loss of biodiversity and inefficiency of agricultural systems, manifested in increases in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and the C footprint, generating the susceptibility of systems agriculture to environmental problems, loss of biodiversity, depletion of natural resources, soil degradation and loss of nutrients, and a decrease in the supply of products that affect food security for peoples and nations. Each year agriculture emits 10 to 12% (5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO2eq per year) of the total estimated GHG emissions (51 Gt CO2 eq per year). The FAO recommends that countries that have not yet done so consider declaring sustainable agriculture as an essential or strategic activity of public interest within the framework of green economies to better face global climate change. The objective of this research was to estimate the balance of GHG in agricultural systems of Cumaral, Meta (Colombia), to contribute to the recovery and sustainable operation of agricultural systems that guarantee food security and face changes generated by the climate in a more intelligent way. To determine the GHG balances, the IPCC methodologies were applied with a Tier 1 and 2 level of use. It was estimated that all the silvopastoral systems evaluated play an important role in this reconversion compared to conventional systems such as improved pastures. and degraded pastures due to their ability to capture C both in soil and in biomass, generating positive GHG balances, guaranteeing greater sustainability of soil and air resources.

Keywords: climate change, carbon capture, environmental sustainability, GHG mitigation, silvopastoral systems

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1132 Sensing of Cancer DNA Using Resonance Frequency

Authors: Sungsoo Na, Chanho Park

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Lung cancer is one of the most common severe diseases driving to the death of a human. Lung cancer can be divided into two cases of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-SCLC (NSCLC), and about 80% of lung cancers belong to the case of NSCLC. From several studies, the correlation between epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and NSCLCs has been investigated. Therefore, EGFR inhibitor drugs such as gefitinib and erlotinib have been used as lung cancer treatments. However, the treatments result showed low response (10~20%) in clinical trials due to EGFR mutations that cause the drug resistance. Patients with resistance to EGFR inhibitor drugs usually are positive to KRAS mutation. Therefore, assessment of EGFR and KRAS mutation is essential for target therapies of NSCLC patient. In order to overcome the limitation of conventional therapies, overall EGFR and KRAS mutations have to be monitored. In this work, the only detection of EGFR will be presented. A variety of techniques has been presented for the detection of EGFR mutations. The standard detection method of EGFR mutation in ctDNA relies on real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Real-time PCR method provides high sensitive detection performance. However, as the amplification step increases cost effect and complexity increase as well. Other types of technology such as BEAMing, next generation sequencing (NGS), an electrochemical sensor and silicon nanowire field-effect transistor have been presented. However, those technologies have limitations of low sensitivity, high cost and complexity of data analyzation. In this report, we propose a label-free and high-sensitive detection method of lung cancer using quartz crystal microbalance based platform. The proposed platform is able to sense lung cancer mutant DNA with a limit of detection of 1nM.

Keywords: cancer DNA, resonance frequency, quartz crystal microbalance, lung cancer

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1131 Development of Automatic Farm Manure Spreading Machine for Orchards

Authors: Barış Ozluoymak, Emin Guzel, Ahmet İnce

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Since chemical fertilizers are used for meeting the deficiency of plant nutrients, its many harmful effects are not taken into consideration for the structure of the earth. These fertilizers are hampering the work of the organisms in the soil immediately after thrown to the ground. This interference is first started with a change of the soil pH and micro organismic balance is disrupted by reaction in the soil. Since there can be no fragmentation of plant residues, organic matter in the soil will be increasingly impoverished in the absence of micro organismic living. Biological activity reduction brings about a deterioration of the soil structure. If the chemical fertilization continues intensively, soils will get worse every year; plant growth will slow down and stop due to the intensity of chemical fertilizers, yield decline will be experienced and farmer will not receive an adequate return on his investment. In this research, a prototype of automatic farm manure spreading machine for orange orchards that not just manufactured in Turkey was designed, constructed, tested and eliminate the human drudgery involved in spreading of farm manure in the field. The machine comprised several components as a 5 m3 volume hopper, automatic controlled hydraulically driven chain conveyor device and side delivery conveyor belts. To spread the solid farm manure automatically, the machine was equipped with an electronic control system. The hopper and side delivery conveyor designs fitted between orange orchard tree row spacing. Test results showed that the control system has significant effects on reduction in the amount of unnecessary solid farm manure use and avoiding inefficient manual labor.

Keywords: automatic control system, conveyor belt application, orchard, solid farm manure

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1130 Bottom-up Quantification of Mega Inter-Basin Water Transfer Vulnerability to Climate Change

Authors: Enze Zhang

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Large numbers of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are constructed or proposed all around the world as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. Nowadays, as climate change warms the atmosphere, alters the hydrologic cycle, and perturbs water availability, large scale IBWTs which are sensitive to these water-related changes may carry significant risk. Given this reality, IBWTs have elicited great controversy and assessments of vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed worldwide. In this paper, we consider the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in China as a case study, and introduce a bottom-up vulnerability assessment framework. Key hazards and risks related to climate change that threaten future water availability for the SNWTP are firstly identified. Then a performance indicator is presented to quantify the vulnerability of IBWT by taking three main elements (i.e., sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree) into account. A probabilistic Budyko model is adapted to estimate water availability responses to a wide range of possibilities for future climate conditions in each region of the study area. After bottom-up quantifying the vulnerability based on the estimated water availability, our findings confirm that SNWTP would greatly alleviate geographical imbalances in water availability under some moderate climate change scenarios but raises questions about whether it is a long-term solution because the donor basin has a high level of vulnerability due to extreme climate change.

Keywords: vulnerability, climate change, inter-basin water transfer, bottom-up

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1129 Research on the Role of Platelet Derived Growth Factor Receptor Beta in Promoting Dedifferentiation and Pulmonary Metastasis of Osteosarcoma Under Hypoxic Microenvironment

Authors: Enjie Xu, Zhen Huang, Kunpeng Zhu, Jianping Hu, Xiaolong Ma, Yongjie Wang, Jiazhuang Zhu, Chunlin Zhang

Abstract:

Abstract: Hypoxia and dedifferentiation of osteosarcoma (OS) cells leads to poor prognosis. We plan to identify the role of hypoxia on dedifferentiation and the associated signaling pathways. We performed a sphere formation assay and determined spheroid cells as dedifferentiated cells by detecting stem cell-like markers. RNAi assay was used to explore the expression relationship between hypoxia inducible factor 1 subunit alpha (HIF1A) and platelet derived growth factor receptor beta (PDGFRB). We obtained PDGFRB knockdown and overexpression cells through lentiviral infection experiments and the effects of PDGFRB on cytoskeleton rearrangement and cell adhesion were explored by immunocytochemistry. Wound-healing experiments, transwell assays, and animal trials were employed to investigate the effect of PDGFRB on OS metastasis. Dedifferentiated OS cells were found to exhibit high expression of HIF1A and PDGFRB, and HIF1A promoted the expression of PDGFRB, subsequently activated ras homolog family member A (RhoA), and increased the phosphorylation of myosin light chain (MLC). PDGFRB also enhanced the phosphorylation of focal adhesion kinase (FAK). The OS cell morphology and vinculin distribution were altered by PDGFRB. PDGFRB also promoted cell dedifferentiation and had a significant impact on the metastasis of OS cells both in vitro and in vivo. Our results demonstrated that HIF1A up-regulated PDGFRB under hypoxic conditions, and PDGFRB regulated the actin cytoskeleton by activating RhoA and subsequently phosphorylating MLC, thereby promoting OS dedifferentiation and pulmonary metastasis.

Keywords: osteosarcoma, dedifferentiation, metastasis, cytoskeleton rearrangement, PDGFRB, hypoxia

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1128 Soil Nutrient Management Implications of Growing Food Crops within the Coffee Gardens

Authors: Pennuel P. Togonave, Bartholomew S. Apis, Emma Kiup, Gure Tumae, Johannes Pakatul, Michael Webb

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Interplanting food crops in coffee gardens has increased in recent years. The purpose of this study was to quantify the nutrient management implications of growing food crops within the coffee garden and to investigate the sustainability of this practice through field surveys in two accessible sites (Asaro and Bena) and two remote sites (Marawaka and Baira), in Eastern Highlands Province of Papua New Guinea. Coffee gardens were selected at each site and surveys were conducted to assess the status of intercropping in each of the smallholder coffee gardens. Food crops in the coffee gardens were sampled for nutrient analysis Survey results indicate intercropping as a common practice in coffee gardens and entailed mixed cropping of food crops in an irregular pattern and spacing. More than 40% of the farmers used 40-60% of their total coffee garden area for intercropping. In remote sites, more than 50% of the coffee garden areas closest to the house were intercropped with food crops compared to 40% of inaccessible sites. In both remote and accessible sites, the most common intercropped food crops were 90% banana (Musa spp) varieties and 50% sugarcane (Saccharum spp). Nutrient analysis of the by-products and residuals of some common intercrops shows the potential to replenish the coffee plant's deficient nutrients like Potassium, Magnesium, Phosphorus, Boron and Zinc. Intercropping of coffee gardens is increasing due to land pressure, marketing opportunities, food security and labor supply

Keywords: by-products, coffee, crops, intercropping, nutrients, soil

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1127 An Analytical Metric and Process for Critical Infrastructure Architecture System Availability Determination in Distributed Computing Environments under Infrastructure Attack

Authors: Vincent Andrew Cappellano

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In the early phases of critical infrastructure system design, translating distributed computing requirements to an architecture has risk given the multitude of approaches (e.g., cloud, edge, fog). In many systems, a single requirement for system uptime / availability is used to encompass the system’s intended operations. However, when architected systems may perform to those availability requirements only during normal operations and not during component failure, or during outages caused by adversary attacks on critical infrastructure (e.g., physical, cyber). System designers lack a structured method to evaluate availability requirements against candidate system architectures through deep degradation scenarios (i.e., normal ops all the way down to significant damage of communications or physical nodes). This increases risk of poor selection of a candidate architecture due to the absence of insight into true performance for systems that must operate as a piece of critical infrastructure. This research effort proposes a process to analyze critical infrastructure system availability requirements and a candidate set of systems architectures, producing a metric assessing these architectures over a spectrum of degradations to aid in selecting appropriate resilient architectures. To accomplish this effort, a set of simulation and evaluation efforts are undertaken that will process, in an automated way, a set of sample requirements into a set of potential architectures where system functions and capabilities are distributed across nodes. Nodes and links will have specific characteristics and based on sampled requirements, contribute to the overall system functionality, such that as they are impacted/degraded, the impacted functional availability of a system can be determined. A machine learning reinforcement-based agent will structurally impact the nodes, links, and characteristics (e.g., bandwidth, latency) of a given architecture to provide an assessment of system functional uptime/availability under these scenarios. By varying the intensity of the attack and related aspects, we can create a structured method of evaluating the performance of candidate architectures against each other to create a metric rating its resilience to these attack types/strategies. Through multiple simulation iterations, sufficient data will exist to compare this availability metric, and an architectural recommendation against the baseline requirements, in comparison to existing multi-factor computing architectural selection processes. It is intended that this additional data will create an improvement in the matching of resilient critical infrastructure system requirements to the correct architectures and implementations that will support improved operation during times of system degradation due to failures and infrastructure attacks.

Keywords: architecture, resiliency, availability, cyber-attack

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1126 The Future of Insurance: P2P Innovation versus Traditional Business Model

Authors: Ivan Sosa Gomez

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Digitalization has impacted the entire insurance value chain, and the growing movement towards P2P platforms and the collaborative economy is also beginning to have a significant impact. P2P insurance is defined as innovation, enabling policyholders to pool their capital, self-organize, and self-manage their own insurance. In this context, new InsurTech start-ups are emerging as peer-to-peer (P2P) providers, based on a model that differs from traditional insurance. As a result, although P2P platforms do not change the fundamental basis of insurance, they do enable potentially more efficient business models to be established in terms of ensuring the coverage of risk. It is therefore relevant to determine whether p2p innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector. For this purpose, it is considered necessary to develop P2P innovation from a business perspective, as well as to build a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Objectives: The objectives are (1) to represent P2P innovation in the business model compared to the traditional insurance model and (2) to establish a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Methodology: The research design is defined as action research in terms of understanding and solving the problems of a collectivity linked to an environment, applying theory and best practices according to the approach. For this purpose, the study is carried out through the participatory variant, which involves the collaboration of the participants, given that in this design, participants are considered experts. For this purpose, prolonged immersion in the field is carried out as the main instrument for data collection. Finally, an actuarial model is developed relating to the calculation of premiums that allows for the establishment of projections of future scenarios and the generation of conclusions between the two models. Main Contributions: From an actuarial and business perspective, we aim to contribute by developing a comparison of the two models in the coverage of risk in order to determine whether P2P innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector.

Keywords: Insurtech, innovation, business model, P2P, insurance

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1125 MiR-200a/ZEB1 Pathway in Liver Fibrogenesis of Biliary Atresia

Authors: Hai-Ying Liu, Yi-Hao Chen, Shu-Yin Pang, Feng-Hua Wang, Xiao-Fang Peng, Li-Yuan Yang, Zheng-Rong Chen, Yi Chen, Bing Zhu

Abstract:

Objective: Biliary atresia (BA) is characterized by progressive liver fibrosis. Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been implicated as a key mechanism in the pathogenesis of organ fibrosis. MiR-200a has been shown to repress EMT. We aim to explore the role of miR-200a in the fibrogenesis of BA. Methods: We obtained the plasma samples and liver samples from patients with BA or controls to examine the role of miR-200a. Histological liver fibrosis was assessed using the Ishak fibrosis scores. Reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was performed to detect the expression of miR-200a in plasma. We also evaluated the expression of miR-200a in liver tissues using tyramide signal amplification fluorescence in situ hybridization (TSA-FISH). The expression of EMT related proteins zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1 (ZEB1), E-cadherin and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) in the liver sections were detected by immunohistochemical staining. Results: We found that the expression of miR-200a was both elevated in the plasma and liver tissues from BA patients compared with the controls. The hepatic expression of ZEB1 and α-SMA were markedly increased in the liver sections from BA patients compared to the controls, whereas E-cadherin was downregulated in the BA group. Simultaneously, we noted that the hepatic expression of miR-200a, E-cadherin and α-SMA were upregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in the BA group, while ZEB1 was downregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in BA patients. Conclusion: These findings suggest EMT has a critical effect on the fibrotic process of BA, and the interaction between miR-200a and ZEB1 may regulate EMT and eventually influence liver fibrogenesis of BA.

Keywords: biliary atresia, liver fibrosis, MicroRNA, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1

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1124 Development of a Comprehensive Energy Model for Canada

Authors: Matthew B. Davis, Amit Kumar

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With potentially dangerous impacts of climate change on the horizon, Canada has an opportunity to take a lead role on the international stage to demonstrate how energy use intensity and greenhouse gas emission intensity may be effectively reduced. Through bottom-up modelling of Canada’s energy sector using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software, it can be determined where efforts should to be concentrated to produce the most positive energy management results. By analyzing a provincially integrated Canada, one can develop strategies to minimize the country’s economic downfall while transitioning to lower-emission energy technologies. Canada’s electricity sector plays an important role in accommodating these transitionary technologies as fossil-fuel based power production is prevalent in many parts of the country and is responsible for a large portion (17%) of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. Current findings incorporate an in-depth model of Canada’s current energy supply and demand sectors, as well as a business-as-usual scenario up to the year 2035. This allows for in-depth analysis of energy flow from resource potential, to extraction, to fuel and electricity production, to energy end use and emissions in Canada’s residential, transportation, commercial, institutional, industrial, and agricultural sectors. Bottom-up modelling techniques such as these are useful to critically analyze and compare the various possible scenarios of implementing sustainable energy measures. This work can aid government in creating effective energy and environmental policies, as well as guide industry to what technology or process changes would be most worthwhile to pursue.

Keywords: energy management, LEAP, energy end-use, GHG emissions

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1123 Comparison of Different Artificial Intelligence-Based Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Methods

Authors: Jamerson Felipe Pereira Lima, Jeane Cecília Bezerra de Melo

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The difficulty and cost related to obtaining of protein tertiary structure information through experimental methods, such as X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy, helped raising the development of computational methods to do so. An approach used in these last is prediction of tridimensional structure based in the residue chain, however, this has been proved an NP-hard problem, due to the complexity of this process, explained by the Levinthal paradox. An alternative solution is the prediction of intermediary structures, such as the secondary structure of the protein. Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Bayesian statistics, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others, were used to predict protein secondary structure. Due to its good results, artificial neural networks have been used as a standard method to predict protein secondary structure. Recent published methods that use this technique, in general, achieved a Q3 accuracy between 75% and 83%, whereas the theoretical accuracy limit for protein prediction is 88%. Alternatively, to achieve better results, support vector machines prediction methods have been developed. The statistical evaluation of methods that use different AI techniques, such as ANNs and SVMs, for example, is not a trivial problem, since different training sets, validation techniques, as well as other variables can influence the behavior of a prediction method. In this study, we propose a prediction method based on artificial neural networks, which is then compared with a selected SVM method. The chosen SVM protein secondary structure prediction method is the one proposed by Huang in his work Extracting Physico chemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure (2013). The developed ANN method has the same training and testing process that was used by Huang to validate his method, which comprises the use of the CB513 protein data set and three-fold cross-validation, so that the comparative analysis of the results can be made comparing directly the statistical results of each method.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, protein secondary structure, protein structure prediction, support vector machines

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1122 Modified Weibull Approach for Bridge Deterioration Modelling

Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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1121 Enhancing the Pricing Expertise of an Online Distribution Channel

Authors: Luis N. Pereira, Marco P. Carrasco

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Dynamic pricing is a revenue management strategy in which hotel suppliers define, over time, flexible and different prices for their services for different potential customers, considering the profile of e-consumers and the demand and market supply. This means that the fundamentals of dynamic pricing are based on economic theory (price elasticity of demand) and market segmentation. This study aims to define a dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the e-consumers profile in order to improve the number of reservations of an online distribution channel. Segmentation methods (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) were used to identify and validate an optimal number of market segments. A profile of the market segments was studied, considering the characteristics of the e-consumers and the probability of reservation a room. In addition, the price elasticity of demand was estimated for each segment using econometric models. Finally, predictive models were used to define rules for classifying new e-consumers into pre-defined segments. The empirical study illustrates how it is possible to improve the intelligence of an online distribution channel system through an optimal dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the profile of each new e-consumer. A database of 11 million e-consumers of an online distribution channel was used in this study. The results suggest that an appropriate policy of market segmentation in using of online reservation systems is benefit for the service suppliers because it brings high probability of reservation and generates more profit than fixed pricing.

Keywords: dynamic pricing, e-consumers segmentation, online reservation systems, predictive analytics

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1120 Dangerous Words: A Moral Economy of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland

Authors: Robin Root

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A fundamental premise of medical anthropology is that clinical phenomena are simultaneously cultural, political, and economic: none more so than the linked acronyms HIV/AIDS. For the medical researcher, HIV/AIDS signals an epidemiological pandemic and a pathophysiology. For persons diagnosed with an HIV-related condition, the acronym often conjures dread, too often marking and marginalizing the afflicted irretrievably. Critical medical anthropology is uniquely equipped to theorize the linkages that bind individual and social wellbeing to global structural and culture-specific phenomena. This paper reports findings from an anthropological study of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland, site of the highest HIV prevalence in the world. The project, initiated in 2005, has documented experiences of HIV/AIDS, religiosity, and treatment and care as well as drought and famine. Drawing on interviews with Swazi religious and traditional leaders about their experiences of leadership amidst worsening economic conditions, environmental degradation, and an ongoing global health crisis, the paper provides uncommon insights for global health practitioners whose singular paradigm for designing and delivering interventions is biomedically-based. In contrast, this paper details the role of local leaders in mediating extreme social suffering and resilience in ways that medical science cannot model but which radically impact how sickness is experienced and health services are delivered and accessed. Two concepts help to organize the paper’s argument. First, a ‘moral economy of language’ is central to showing up the implicit ‘technologies of knowledge’ that inhere in scientific and religious discourses of HIV/AIDS; people draw upon these discourses strategically to navigate highly vulnerable conditions. Second, Paulo Freire’s ethnographic focus on a culture’s 'dangerous words' opens up for examination how ‘sex’ is dangerous for religion and ‘god’ is dangerous for science. The paper interrogates hegemonic and ‘lived’ discourses, both biomedical and religious, and contributes to an important literature on the moral economies of health, a framework of explication and, importantly, action appropriate to a wide-range of contemporary global health phenomena. The paper concludes by asserting that it is imperative that global health planners reflect upon and ‘check’ their hegemonic policy platforms by, one, collaborating with local authoritative agents of ‘what sickness means and how it is best treated,’ and, two, taking account of the structural barriers to achieving good health.

Keywords: Africa, biomedicine, HIV/AIDS, qualitative research , religion

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1119 Protective Effect of Vitamin D on Cardiac Apoptosis in Obese Rats

Authors: Kadeejah Alsolami, Zainab Alrefay, Husaam Awad

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Obesity and vitamin D deficiency have both been related to cardiovascular disease. The present work aimed to investigate the possible protective effect of vitamin D on cardiac apoptosis in a rat model of dietary-induced obesity. Methods: 30 male Wistar rats included in this study. They were allocated into 4 groups: Control (n=5), animal were fed standard diet for 3 months: Control + vitamin D (VD) (n=5),animals were fed a standard diet with 400IU VD/kg for 3 months: hypercaloric diets group (n=10), animals were fed a high fat diet for 3 months: hypercaloric diet with VD group (n=10), animals were fed a high fat diet with 400IU VD/kg for 3 months. At the beginning of the experiment, the weight and length were measured to assess body mass index (BMI) and repeated every 45 days. Food intake and body weight were monitored throughout the study period. Then rats were sacrificed and heart tissues collected for Quantitative Real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). qRT-PCR used to detect different genetic markers of apoptosis (anti-apoptotic gene (BCL2), a pro-apoptotic gene(BAX), pro-apoptotic genes (FAS, FAS-L), tumour necrosis factor (TNF), mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK). Results: FAS and FAS-L gene expression were significantly upregulated in rats fed with high fat diet. And FAS-L gene expression was significantly upregulated in all groups on comparison with control. Whereas Bax gene expression was significantly downregulated in rats fed with high-fat diet supplied with vitamin D. TNF was significantly upregulated in rats fed with high-fat diet treated with vitamin D. MAPK was significantly upregulated in rats fed with high fat diet group, and in rats fed with high-fat diet supplied with vitamin D. Conclusion: The cardiac apoptotic pathways were more activated in rats fed with high-fat than lean rats. And vitamin D protect the heart from the cardiac mitochondrial-dependent apoptotic pathway.

Keywords: apoptosis, heart, obesity, Vitamin D

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1118 Applied of LAWA Classification for Assessment of the Water by Nutrients Elements: Case Oran Sebkha Basin

Authors: Boualla Nabila

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The increasing demand on water, either for the drinkable water supply, or for the agricultural and industrial custom, requires a very thorough hydrochemical study to protect better and manage this resource. Oran is relatively a city with the worst quality of the water. Recently, the growing populations may put stress on natural waters by impairing the quality of the water. Campaign of water sampling of 55 points capturing different levels of the aquifer system was done for chemical analyzes of nutriments elements. The results allowed us to approach the problem of contamination based on the largely uniform nationwide approach LAWA (LänderarbeitsgruppeWasser), based on the EU CIS guidance, has been applied for the identification of pressures and impacts, allowing for easy comparison. Groundwater samples were analyzed, also, for physico-chemical parameters such as pH, sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulphate, carbonate and bicarbonate. The analytical results obtained in this hydrochemistry study were interpreted using Durov diagram. Based on these representations, the anomaly of high groundwater salinity observed in Oran Sebkha basin was explained by the high chloride concentration and to the presence of inverse cation exchange reaction. Durov diagram plot revealed that the groundwater has been evolved from Ca-HCO3 recharge water through mixing with the pre-existing groundwater to give mixed water of Mg-SO4 and Mg-Cl types that eventually reached a final stage of evolution represented by a Na-Cl water type.

Keywords: contamination, water quality, nutrients elements, approach LAWA, durov diagram

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1117 Determinants of the Shadow Economy with an Islamic Orientation: An Application to Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Non-Organization of Islamic Cooperation Countries

Authors: Shabeer Khan

Abstract:

The main objective of Islamic Finance is to promote social justice thorough financial inclusion and redistribution of economic resources between rich and poor. The approach of Islamic finance is more comprehensive in nature and covers both formal and informal sectors of the economy, first, through reducing the gap between both sectors, and second by using specific Islamic values to reallocate the wealth between formal and informal sectors. Applying Generalized Method of Movements (GMM) to the annual data spanning from 1995-2015 for 141 countries, this study explores the determinants of informal business sector in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries and then compares with Non-OIC countries. Economic freedom and institutions variables as well as economic growth and money supply are found to reduce informal business sector in both OIC and Non-OIC nations while government expenditure are found to increase informal business sector in both group of nations. Informal Business sector remain the same in both types of countries but still the majority Muslim population in OIC economies create main difference between both groups of nations and justify the potential role of Islamic Finance in informal business sector in OIC nations. The study suggests that institutions quality should be improved and entrepreneurs’ friendly business environment must be provided. This study refines the main features of informal business sector and discuss their implications on policy designing and implementation, particularly in the context of Islamic finance fight against poverty, inequality and improving living standards of informal sector participants in OIC countries.

Keywords: Islamic finance, informal Business Sector, Generalized Method of Movements (GMM) and OIC

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1116 Exploring the Relationship between Organisational Identity and Value Systems: Reflecting on the Values-Crafting Process in a Multi-National Organisation within the Entertainment Industry

Authors: Dieter Veldsman, Theo Heyns Veldsman

Abstract:

The knowledge economy demands an organisation that is flexible, adaptable and able to navigate the ever-changing environment. This fast-paced environment has however resulted in an organizational landscape that battles to engage employees, retain top talent and create meaningful work for its members. In the knowledge economy, the concept of organizational identity has become an important consideration as organisations aim to create a compelling and inviting narrative for all stakeholders across the business value chain. Values are often seen as the behavioural framework that informs organisational culture, yet often values are perceived to be inauthentic and misaligned with the true character or identity of the organisation and how it is perceived by different role players. This paper focuses on exploring the relationship between organisational identity and value systems by focusing on a case study within a multi-national organisation within South Africa. The paper evaluates the implementation of mixed methods OD approach that gathered collaborative inputs of more than 4500 employees who participated in crafting the newly established values system post a retrenchment process. The paper will evaluate the relationship between the newly crafted value system and the identity of the organisation as described by various internal and external stakeholders in order to explore potential alignment, dissonance and key insights into understanding the relationship between organisational identity and values. The case study will be reported from the perspective of an OD consultant who supported the transformation process over a period of 8 months and aims to provide key insights into values and identity alignment within knowledge economy organisations. From a practical perspective, the paper provides insights into how values are created, perceived and lived within organisations and the impact on employee engagement and culture.

Keywords: culture, organisational development, organisational identity, values

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1115 Identification of Flooding Attack (Zero Day Attack) at Application Layer Using Mathematical Model and Detection Using Correlations

Authors: Hamsini Pulugurtha, V.S. Lakshmi Jagadmaba Paluri

Abstract:

Distributed denial of service attack (DDoS) is one altogether the top-rated cyber threats presently. It runs down the victim server resources like a system of measurement and buffer size by obstructing the server to supply resources to legitimate shoppers. Throughout this text, we tend to tend to propose a mathematical model of DDoS attack; we discuss its relevancy to the choices like inter-arrival time or rate of arrival of the assault customers accessing the server. We tend to tend to further analyze the attack model in context to the exhausting system of measurement and buffer size of the victim server. The projected technique uses an associate in nursing unattended learning technique, self-organizing map, to make the clusters of identical choices. Lastly, the abstract applies mathematical correlation and so the standard likelihood distribution on the clusters and analyses their behaviors to look at a DDoS attack. These systems not exclusively interconnect very little devices exchanging personal data, but to boot essential infrastructures news standing of nuclear facilities. Although this interconnection brings many edges and blessings, it to boot creates new vulnerabilities and threats which might be conversant in mount attacks. In such sophisticated interconnected systems, the power to look at attacks as early as accomplishable is of paramount importance.

Keywords: application attack, bandwidth, buffer correlation, DDoS distribution flooding intrusion layer, normal prevention probability size

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1114 Analysis of a Multiejector Cooling System in a Truck at Different Loads

Authors: Leonardo E. Pacheco, Carlos A. Díaz

Abstract:

An alternative way of addressing the difficult to recover the useless heat is through an ejector refrigeration cycle for vehicles applications. A group of thermo-compressor supply the mechanical compressor function at conventional refrigeration compression system. The thermo-compressor group recovers the thermal energy from waste streams (exhaust gases product in internal combustion motors, gases burned in wellhead among others) to eliminate the power consumption of the mechanical compressor. These types of alternative cooling system (air-conditioners) present a kind of advantages in both the increase in energy efficiency and the improvement of the COP of the system being studied from their its mechanical simplicity (decrease of moving parts). An ejector refrigeration cycle represents a significant step forward in the optimization of the efficient use of energy in the process of air conditioning and an alternative to reduce the environmental impacts. On one side, with the energy recycling decreases the temperature of the gases thrown into the atmosphere, which contributes to the principal beneficiaries of the average temperature of the planet. In parallel, mitigating the environmental impact caused by the production and handling of conventional cooling fluids commonly available in the market, causing the destruction of the ozone layer. This work had studied the operation of the multiejector cooling system for a truck with a 420 HP engine at different rotation speed. The operation condition limits and the COP of multi-ejector cooling systems applied in a truck are analyzed for a variable rpm range from to 800–1800 rpm.

Keywords: ejector system, exhaust gas, multiejector cooling system, recovery energy

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1113 Investigation of Multiple Dynamic Vibration Absorbers' Performance in Overhead Transmission Lines

Authors: Pedro F. D. Oliveira, Rangel S. Maia, Aline S. Paula

Abstract:

As the electric energy consumption grows, the necessity of energy transmission lines increases. One of the problems caused by an oscillatory response to dynamical loads (such as wind effects) in transmission lines is the cable fatigue. Thus, the dynamical behavior of transmission cables understanding and its control is extremely important. The socioeconomic damage caused by a failure in these cables can be quite significant, from large economic losses to energy supply interruption in large regions. Dynamic Vibration Absorbers (DVA) are oscillatory elements used to mitigate the vibration of a primary system subjected to harmonic excitation. The positioning of Stockbridge (DVA for overhead transmission lines) plays an important role in mitigating oscillations of transmission lines caused by airflows. Nowadays, the positioning is defined by technical standards or commercial software. The aim of this paper is to conduct an analysis of multiple DVAs performances in cable conductors of overhead transmission lines. The cable is analyzed by a finite element method and the model is calibrated by experimental results. DVAs performance is analyzed by evaluating total cable energy, and a study of multiple DVAs positioning is conducted. The results are compared to the existing regulations showing situations where proper positioning, different from the standard, can lead to better performance of the DVA. Results also show situations where the use of multiple DVAs is appropriate.

Keywords: dynamical vibration absorber, finite element method, overhead transmission lines, structural dynamics

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1112 Exceptionally Glauconite-Rich Strata from the Miocene Bejaoua Facies of Northern Tunisia: Origin, Composition, and Depositional Conditions

Authors: Abdelbasset Tounekti, Kamel Boukhalfa, Tathagata Roy Choudhury, Mohamed Soussi, Santanu Banerjee

Abstract:

The exceptionally glauconite-rich Miocene strata are superbly exposed throughout the front of the nappes zone of northern Tunisia. Each of the glauconitic fine-grained intervals coincide with the peak rise of third order sea-level cycles during the Burdigalian-Langhiantime. These deposits show coarsening- and thickening-upward glauconitic shale and sandstone, recording a shallowing upward progression across offshore-shoreface settings. Petrographic investigation reveals that the glauconite was originated from the alteration of fecal pellets, and lithoclast including feldspar, volcanic particle, and quartz and infillings with intraparticle pores. Mineralogical analysis of both randomly oriented and air-dried, ethylene-glycolate, and heated glauconite pellets show the low intensity of (002) reflection peaks, indicating high iron substitution for aluminum in octahedral sites. Geochemical characterization of the Miocene glauconite reveals a high K2O and variable Fe2O3 (total) content. A combination of layer lattice and divertissement theories explains the origin of glauconite. The formation of glauconite was facilitated by the abundant supply of Fe through contemporaneous volcanism in Algeria and surrounding areas, which accompanied the African-European plate convergence. Therefore, the occurrence of glauconite in the Miocene succession of Tunisia is influenced by the combination of eustacy and volcanism.

Keywords: glauconite, autogenic, volcanism, geochemistry, chamosite, northern Tunisia, miocene

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1111 Automated Distribution System Management: Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution for Obafemi Awolowo University

Authors: Aderonke Oluseun Akinwumi, Olusola A. Komolaf

Abstract:

This paper gives information about the wide array of challenges facing both the electric utilities and consumers in the distribution system in developing countries, using Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife Nigeria as a case study. It also proffers cost-effective solution through remote monitoring, diagnostic and operation of distribution networks without compromising the system reliability. As utilities move from manned and unintelligent networks to completely unmanned smart grids, switching activities at substations and feeders will be managed and controlled remotely by dedicated systems hence this design. The Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution (sRDOs) would remotely monitor the load on Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) feeders as well as distribution transformers and allow the utility disconnect non-paying customers with absolutely no extra resource deployment and without interrupting supply to paying customers. The aftermath of the implementation of this design improved the lifetime of key distribution infrastructure by automatically isolating feeders during overload conditions and more importantly erring consumers. This increased the ratio of revenue generated on electricity bills to total network load.

Keywords: electric utility, consumers, remote monitoring, diagnostic, system reliability, manned and unintelligent networks, unmanned smart grids, switching activities, medium voltage, low voltage, distribution transformer

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1110 Insulin Resistance in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Upper Egypt Experience

Authors: Ali Kassem

Abstract:

Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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1109 Describing Professional Purchasers' Performance Applying the 'Big Five Inventory': Findings from a Survey in Austria

Authors: Volker Koch, Sigrid Swobodnik, Bernd M. Zunk

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The success of companies on globalized markets is significantly influenced by the performance of purchasing departments and, of course, the individuals employed as professional purchasers. Nonetheless, this is generally accepted in practice, in literature as well as in empirical research, only insufficient attention was given to the assessment of this relationship between the personality of professional purchasers and their individual performance. This paper aims to describe the relationship against the background of the 'Big Five Inventory'. Based on the five dimensions of a personality (openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) a research model was designed. The research model divides the individual performance of professional purchasers into two major dimensions: operational and strategic. The operational dimension consists of the items 'cost', 'quality delivery' and 'flexibility'; the strategic dimension comprises the positions 'innovation', 'supplier satisfaction' as wells as 'purchasing and supply management integration in the organization'. To test the research model, a survey study was performed, and an online questionnaire was sent out to purchasing professionals in Austrian companies. The data collected from 78 responses was used to test the research model applying a group comparison. The comparison points out that there is (i) an influence of the purchasers’ personality on the individual performance of professional purchasers and (ii) a link between purchasers’ personality to a high or a low individual performance of professional purchasers. The findings of this study may help human resource managers during staff recruitment processes to identify the 'right performing personality' for an operational and/or a strategic position in purchasing departments.

Keywords: big five inventory, individual performance, personality, purchasing professionals

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1108 Artificial Insemination for Cattle and Carabaos in Bicol Region, Philippines: Its Implementation and Assessment

Authors: Lourdita Llanto

Abstract:

This study described and assessed the implementation of artificial insemination (AI) for cattle and carabaos in the Bicol Region, Philippines: Albay, Sorsogon and Camarines Sur. Three hundred respondents were interviewed. Results were analyzed using frequency counts, means, percentages and chi-square test. Semen samples from different stations were analyzed for motility, viability and morphology. T-test was used in semen quality evaluation. Provincial AI coordinators (PAIC) were male, averaging 59 years old, married, had college education, served in government service for 34 years, but as PAIC for 5.7 years. All had other designations. Mean AI operation was 11.33 years with annual support from the local government unit of Php76,666.67. AI technicians were males, married, with college education, and trained on AI. Problems were on mobility; inadequate knowledge of farmers in animal raising and AI; and lack of liquid nitrogen and frozen semen supply. There was 2.95 municipalities and breedable cattle/carabaos of 3,091.25 per AI technician. Mean number of artificially inseminated animals per AI technician for 2011 was 28.57 heads for carabaos and 8.64 heads for cattle. There was very low participation rate among farmers. Carabaos were 6.52 years with parity 1.53. Cattle were 5.61 years, with parity of 1.51. Semen quality significantly (p ≤ 0.05) deteriorated in normal and live sperm with storage and handling at the provincial and field stations. Breed, AI technicians practices and AI operation significantly affected conception rate. Mean conception rate was 57.62%.

Keywords: artificial insemination, carabao, parity, mother tanks, frozen semen

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1107 In-Farm Wood Gasification Energy Micro-Generation System in Brazil: A Monte Carlo Viability Simulation

Authors: Erich Gomes Schaitza, Antônio Francisco Savi, Glaucia Aparecida Prates

Abstract:

The penetration of renewable energy into the electricity supply in Brazil is high, one of the highest in the World. Centralized hydroelectric generation is the main source of energy, followed by biomass and wind. Surprisingly, mini and micro-generation are negligible, with less than 2,000 connections to the national grid. In 2015, a new regulatory framework was put in place to change this situation. In the agricultural sector, the framework was complemented by the offer of low interest rate loans to in-farm renewable generation. Brazil proposed to more than double its area of planted forests as part of its INDC- Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the UNFCCC-U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is an ambitious target which will be achieved only if forests are attractive to farmers. Therefore, this paper analyses whether planting forests for in-farm energy generation with a with a woodchip gasifier is economically viable for microgeneration under the new framework and at if they could be an economic driver for forest plantation. At first, a static case was analyzed with data from Eucalyptus plantations in five farms. Then, a broader analysis developed with the use of Monte Carlo technique. Planting short rotation forests to generate energy could be a viable alternative and the low interest loans contribute to that. There are some barriers to such systems such as the inexistence of a mature market for small scale equipment and of a reference network of good practices and examples.

Keywords: biomass, distribuited generation, small-scale, Monte Carlo

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