Search results for: risk estimation

Authors: Qian Zhang, Dongkai Shen, Yan Shi

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A new mechanical ventilator with automatic secretion clearance function can improve the secretion clearance safely and efficiently. However, in recent modeling studies on various mechanical ventilators, it was considered that human had one lung, and the coupling effect of double lungs was never illustrated. In this paper, to expound the coupling effect of double lungs, a mathematical model of a ventilation system of a bi-level positive airway pressure (BiPAP) controlled ventilator with secretion clearance was set up. Moreover, an experimental study about the mechanical ventilation system of double lungs on BiPAP ventilator was conducted to verify the mathematical model. Finally, the coupling effect of double lungs of the mathematical ventilation was studied by simulation and orthogonal experimental design. This paper adds to previous studies and can be referred to optimization methods in medical researches.

Keywords: double lungs, coupling effect, secretion clearance, orthogonal experimental design

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Authors: S. Zolghadri, M. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, F. Abbasi-Davani

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In this study, the absorbed dose of human organs after injection of ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC was studied based on the biodistribution of the complex in adenocarcinoma breast cancer bearing mice. For this purpose, the biodistribution of the radiolabelled complex was studied and compartmental modeling was applied to calculate the absorbed dose with high precision. As expected, ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC illustrated a notable specific uptake in tumor and pancreas, organs with high level of somatostatin receptor on their surface and the effectiveness of the radio-conjugate for targeting of the breast adenocarcinoma tumors was indicated. The elicited results of modeling were the exponential equations, and those are utilized for obtaining the cumulated activity data by taking their integral. The results also exemplified that non-target absorbed-doses such as the liver, spleen and pancreas were approximately 0.008, 0.004, and 0.039, respectively. While these values were so much lower than target (tumor) absorbed-dose, it seems due to this low toxicity, this complex is a good agent for therapy.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu, breast cancer, compartmental modeling, dosimetry

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Authors: Tomas Menard

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The design of control-law for engineering systems has been investigated for many decades. While many results are concerned with continuous systems with continuous output, nowadays, many controlled systems have to transmit their output measurements through network, hence making it discrete-time. But it is well known that the sampling of a system whose control-law is based on the continuous output may render the system unstable, especially when this sampling period is long compared to the system dynamics. The control design then has to be adapted in order to cope with this issue. In this paper, we consider systems which can be modeled as double integrator with uncertainty on the input since many mechanical systems can be put under such form. We present a control scheme based on an observer using only discrete time measurement and which provides continuous time estimation of the state, combined with a continuous control law, which stabilized a system with second-order dynamics even in the presence of uncertainty. It is further shown that arbitrarily long sampling periods can be dealt with properly setting the control scheme parameters.

Keywords: dynamical system, control law design, sampled output, observer design

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Authors: Moses Balina, Archbald Bahizi

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Introduction: Early onset neonatal sepsis is a systemic infection in a newborn baby during the first week after birth and contributes to 50% of neonatal deaths each year. Risk factors for early onset neonatal sepsis, which can be maternal, health care provider, or health care facility associated, can be prevented with access to quality antenatal care. Objective: The objective of the study was to assess early onset neonatal sepsis and antenatal factors associated with Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital. Methodology: A cross sectional study design was used. The study involved 60 respondents who were mothers of breastfeeding neonates being treated for early onset neonatal sepsis at Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital neonatal intensive care unit. Simple random sampling was used to select study participants. Data were collected using questionnaires, entered in Stata 16, and analysed using logistic regression. Results: The prevalence of early onset neonatal sepsis at Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital was 25%. Multivariate analysis revealed that institutional factors were the only antenatal factors found to be significantly associated with early onset neonatal sepsis at Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital (p < 0.01). Bivariate analysis revealed that attending antenatal care at a health centre III or IV instead of a hospital (p = 0.011) and attending antenatal care in health care facilities with no laboratory investigations (p = 0.048) were risk factors for early onset neonatal sepsis in the newborn at Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital. Conclusion: Antenatal factors were associated with early onset neonatal sepsis, and health care facility factors like lower level health centre and unavailability of quality laboratory investigations to pregnant women contributed to early onset neonatal sepsis in the newborn. Mentorships, equipping/stocking laboratories, and improving staffing levels were necessary to reduce early onset neonatal sepsis.

Keywords: antenatal factors, early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates 0-7 days, fort portal regional referral hospital

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Authors: Magdi M. E. Zumrawi, Mohamed Awad

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Determination of Resilient Modulus (M_R) is quite important for characterizing materials in pavement design and evaluation. The main focus of this study is to develop a correlation that predict the resilient modulus of subgrade soils from simple and easy measured soil index properties. To achieve this objective, three subgrade soils representing typical Khartoum soils were selected and tested in the laboratory for measuring resilient modulus. Other basic laboratory tests were conducted on the soils to determine their physical properties. Several soil samples were prepared and compacted at different moisture contents and dry densities and then tested using resilient modulus testing machine. Based on experimental results, linear relationship of M_R with the consistency factor ‘F_c’ which is a combination of dry density, void ratio and consistency index had been developed. The results revealed that very good linear relationship found between the M_R and the consistency factor with a coefficient of linearity (R²) more than 0.9. The consistency factor could be used for the prediction of the M_R of compacted subgrade soils with precise and reliable results.

Keywords: Consistency factor, resilient modulus, subgrade soil, properties

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Authors: Anna Guitart Atienza, Ana Fernández del Río, Madhav Nekkar, Jelena Ljubicic, África Periáñez, Eura Shin, Lauren Bellhouse

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The use of digital devices in healthcare or mobile health (mHealth) has increased in recent years due to the advances in digital technology, making it possible to nudge healthy behaviors through individual interventions. In addition, mHealth is becoming essential in poor-resource settings due to the widespread use of smartphones in areas where access to professional healthcare is limited. In this work, we evaluate mHealth interventions in low-income countries with a focus on causal inference. Counterfactuals estimation and other causal computations are key to determining intervention success and assisting in empirical decision-making. Our main purpose is to personalize treatment recommendations and triage patients at the individual level in order to maximize the entire intervention's impact on the desired outcome. For this study, collected data includes mHealth individual logs from front-line healthcare workers, electronic health records (EHR), and external variables data such as environmental, demographic, and geolocation information.

Keywords: causal inference, mHealth, intervention, personalization

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Authors: Riad

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As present world needs more and more energy in a low cost way, it needs to find out the optimal way of power generation. In the sense of low cost, renewable energy is one of the greatest sources of power generation. Water vapour of sea/river/lake can be used for power generation by using the greenhouse effect in a large flat type water chamber floating on the water surface. The water chamber will always be kept half filled. When water evaporates by sunlight, the high pressured gaseous water will be stored in the chamber. By passing through a pipe and by using aerodynamics it can be used for power generation. The water level of the chamber is controlled by some means. As a large amount of water evaporates, an estimation can be highlighted, approximately 3 to 4 thousand gallons of water evaporates from per acre of surface (this amount will be more by greenhouse effect). This large amount of gaseous water can be utilized for power generation by passing through a pipe. This method can be a source of power generation.

Keywords: renewable energy, greenhouse effect, water chamber, water vapour

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Authors: Yasir Khan

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The continued growth in international students coming to China for higher education had a significant positive impact on trade and GDP in China. Student mobility may expend trade with their country of origin, owing to superior knowledge, or preferential access to market opportunities. We test this hypothesis using Chinese trade data from 1999 to 2017. In fully-modify (OLS) and dynamic (OLS) testing estimation, we find that a 1.24 percent increase in student inward mobility is associated with a 1 percent increase in Chinese export trade. On the other hand, we find that a 1.18 percent increase in the student inward mobility to China is associated with a 1 percent increase in import trade. In addition, we find that a 1.13 percent increase in international student inward mobility is associated with a 1 percent increase in the GDP. The outcome suggests that international students have a strong influence on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports and imports trade. However, the study holds that the government should attach great attachment and importance to the role of international students in the export and import trade.

Keywords: international student mobility, China, export, import, GDP, FMOLS, DOLS

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Authors: Nasreen Abdulmannan

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Fetal abnormalities are categorized as a structural abnormality, non-structural abnormality, or a combination of both. Fetal structural abnormalities (FSA) include, but are not limited, to Down syndrome, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and cleft lip and palate. These abnormalities can be detected in the first weeks of pregnancy, which is almost around 9 - 20 weeks gestational. Etiological factors for FSA are unknown; however, transmitted genetic risk can be one of these factors. Consanguineous marriage often referred to as inbreeding, represents a significant risk factor for FSA due to the increased likelihood of deleterious genetic traits shared by both biological parents. In a country such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), consanguineous marriage is high, which creates a significant risk of children being born with congenital abnormalities. Historically, the practice of consanguinity occurred commonly among European royalty. For example, Great Britain’s Queen Victoria married her German first cousin, Prince Albert of Coburg. Although a distant blood relationship, the United Kingdom’s Queen Elizabeth II married her cousin, Prince Philip of Greece and Denmark—both of them direct descendants of Queen Victoria. In Middle Eastern countries, a high incidence of consanguineous unions still exists, including in the KSA. Previous studies indicated that a significant gap exists in understanding the lived experiences of Saudi women dealing with an FSA-complicated pregnancy. Eleven participants were interviewed using a semi-structured interview format for this qualitative phenomenological study investigating the lived experiences of pregnant Saudi women carrying a child with FSA. This study explored the gaps in current literature regarding the lived experiences of pregnant Saudi women whose pregnancies were complicated by FSA. In addition, the researcher acquired knowledge about the available support and resources as well as the Saudi cultural perspective on FSA. This research explored the lived experiences of pregnant Saudi women utilizing Giorgi’s (2009) approach to data collection and data management. Findings for this study cover five major themes: (1) initial maternal reaction to the FSA diagnosis per ultrasound screening; (2) strengthening of the maternal relationship with God; (3) maternal concern for their child’s future; (4) feeling supported by their loved ones; and (5) lack of healthcare provider support and guidance. Future research in the KSA is needed to explore the network support for these mothers. This study recommended further clinical nursing research, nursing education, clinical practice, and healthcare policy/procedures to provide opportunities for improvement in nursing care and increase awareness in KSA society.

Keywords: fetal structural abnormalities, psychological distress, health provider, health care

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Authors: Iman Nezamzadeh, Ali Faghih, Behnam Oveisi

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In order to reduce earthquake hazards in urban areas, it is necessary to perform comprehensive studies to understand the dynamics of the active faults and identify potentially high risk areas. The fault slip-rates in Late Quaternary sediment are critical indicators of seismic hazard and also provide valuable data to recognize young crustal deformations. To measure slip-rates accurately, is needed to displacement of geomorphic markers and ages of quaternary sediment samples of alluvial deposit that deformed by movements on fault. In this study we produced information about Intermediate term slip rate of Sabzpushan Fault Zone (SPF) within the central part of the Zagros Mountains of Iran using OSL dating technique to make better analysis of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction for Shiraz city. For this purpose identifiable geomorphic fluvial surfaces help us to provide a reference frame to determine differential or absolute horizontal and vertical deformation. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is an alternative and independent method of determining the burial age of mineral grains in Quaternary sediments. Field observation and satellite imagery show geomorphic markers that deformed horizontally along the Sabzpoushan Fault. Here, drag folds is forming because of evaporites material of Miocen Formation. We estimate 2.8±0.5 mm/yr (mm/y) horizontal slip rate along the Sabzpushan fault zone, where ongoing deformation is involve with drug folding. The Soltan synclinal structure, close to the Sabzpushan fault, shows slight uplift rate due to active core-extrousion.

Keywords: slip rate, active tectonics, OSL, geomorphic markers, Sabzpushan Fault Zone, Zagros, Iran

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Authors: Hala M. Abdelkarem, Abeer H. Gafeer

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The metabolic syndrome (Mts) is a constellation of risk factors. The main objective of this study is to compare the ameliorating effect of metformin, lipitor, orilstate, lipoic acid and carnitin on insulin, lipid profile, leptin, adenonectin levels in metabolic syndrom (high fructose fed rats HF). Seventy male albino rats were divided into seven groups. G1: normal control. G2: G7 rats fed HF for 8wks. After four wk HF feeding, G3, G4, G5, G6, and G7 were orally administered (200 mg/kg daily) metformin, lipitor, orilstate, lipoic acid and carnitin respectively. All drugs were adminiseterd once daily. After 8 weeks of feeding, a significant increase in blood glucose level was observed in HF fed rats compared to normal rats, but this increase was significantly decreased after administration of metformin and lipitor. The raised of serum insulin level in HF fed rats was significantly decreased after administration of lipoic, carnitin, metformin. Significant higher concentrations of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol & low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL- C) were observed in HF fed rats and these increases were significantly lowered after the administration of all the previous drugs. There was a significant decrease in serum high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in HF group administration of all drugs alleviates this reduction. The increased of serum leptin level in HF group was decreased significantly in met and orilstate groups. Whereas the reduction of serum adiponectin level in HF fed rats was increased in Lipitor, carnitin, orilstate groups. These data suggested that benefial effect of metformin, lipitor, orilstate, lipoic acid carnitin in reducing risk for people with decreased insulin sensitivity, increased oxidative stress and hyperlipidemia such as those with the metabolic syndrome or type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, diabetes, proinflammation, antioxidants

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Authors: G. N. Tiwari, Shyam

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Photovoltaic thermal (PVT) roof type greenhouse dryer installed above the wind tower of SODHA BERS COMPLEX, Varanasi has been analyzed for all types of weather conditions. The product to be dried has been kept at three different trays. The upper tray receives energy from the PV cover while the bottom tray receives thermal energy from the hot air of the wind tower. The annual energy estimation has been done for the all types of weather condition of composite climate of northern India. It has been found that maximum energy saving is observed for c type of weather condition whereas minimum energy saving is observed for a type of weather condition. The energy saving on overall thermal energy basis and exergy basis are 1206.8 kWh and 360 kWh respectively for c type of weather condition. The energy saving from all types of weather condition are found to be 3175.3 kWh and 957.6 kWh on overall thermal energy and overall exergy basis respectively.

Keywords: exergy, greenhouse, photovoltaic thermal, solar dryer

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Authors: Nicole Merkle, Stefan Zander

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Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) describes a technological and methodological stack of (e.g. formal model-theoretic semantics, rule-based reasoning and machine learning), different aspects regarding the behavior, activities and characteristics of humans. Hence, a semantic representation of the user environment and its relevant elements are required in order to allow assistive agents to recognize situations and deduce appropriate actions. Furthermore, the user and his/her characteristics (e.g. physical, cognitive, preferences) need to be represented with a high degree of expressiveness in order to allow software agents a precise evaluation of the users’ context models. The correct interpretation of these context models highly depends on temporal, spatial circumstances as well as individual user preferences. In most AAL approaches, model representations of real world situations represent the current state of a universe of discourse at a given point in time by neglecting transitions between a set of states. However, the AAL domain currently lacks sufficient approaches that contemplate on the dynamic adaptions of context-related representations. Semantic representations of relevant real-world excerpts (e.g. user activities) help cognitive, rule-based agents to reason and make decisions in order to help users in appropriate tasks and situations. Furthermore, rules and reasoning on semantic models are not sufficient for handling uncertainty and fuzzy situations. A certain situation can require different (re-)actions in order to achieve the best results with respect to the user and his/her needs. But what is the best result? To answer this question, we need to consider that every smart agent requires to achieve an objective, but this objective is mostly defined by domain experts who can also fail in their estimation of what is desired by the user and what not. Hence, a smart agent has to be able to learn from context history data and estimate or predict what is most likely in certain contexts. Furthermore, different agents with contrary objectives can cause collisions as their actions influence the user’s context and constituting conditions in unintended or uncontrolled ways. We present an approach for dynamically updating a semantic model with respect to the current user context that allows flexibility of the software agents and enhances their conformance in order to improve the user experience. The presented approach adapts rules by learning sensor evidence and user actions using probabilistic reasoning approaches, based on given expert knowledge. The semantic domain model consists basically of device-, service- and user profile representations. In this paper, we present how this semantic domain model can be used in order to compute the probability of matching rules and actions. We apply this probability estimation to compare the current domain model representation with the computed one in order to adapt the formal semantic representation. Our approach aims at minimizing the likelihood of unintended interferences in order to eliminate conflicts and unpredictable side-effects by updating pre-defined expert knowledge according to the most probable context representation. This enables agents to adapt to dynamic changes in the environment which enhances the provision of adequate assistance and affects positively the user satisfaction.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, machine learning, semantic web, software agents

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Authors: Harisudha Kuresan, Dhanalakshmi Samiappan, T. Rama Rao

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In modern telecommunication applications, Glottal Closure Instants location finding is important and is directly evaluated from the speech waveform. Here, we study the GCI using Speech Event Detection using Residual Excitation and the Mean Based Signal (SEDREAMS) algorithm. Speech coding uses parameter estimation using audio signal processing techniques to model the speech signal combined with generic data compression algorithms to represent the resulting modeled in a compact bit stream. This paper proposes a sub-band coder SBC, which is a type of transform coding and its performance for GCI detection using SEDREAMS are evaluated. In SBCs code in the speech signal is divided into two or more frequency bands and each of these sub-band signal is coded individually. The sub-bands after being processed are recombined to form the output signal, whose bandwidth covers the whole frequency spectrum. Then the signal is decomposed into low and high-frequency components and decimation and interpolation in frequency domain are performed. The proposed structure significantly reduces error, and precise locations of Glottal Closure Instants (GCIs) are found using SEDREAMS algorithm.

Keywords: SEDREAMS, GCI, SBC, GOI

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Authors: Mukondi Nethavhakone

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The high prevalence of violence against women is a global public health problem. Our societies have become dangerous places for women. Women during their child-bearing ages are at a higher risk of experiencing emotional, physical, and sexual violence. What makes it more concerning is that these violent acts are perpetrated by family members or partners, or ex-partners. Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is associated with long-lasting physical, reproductive, sexual, mental, and maternal health implications. Expectedly women’s mental health would dimmish as a result of experiencing IPV. The burden of violence against women is seen to be heavier in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to the rest of the world. Countries have committed to eliminating all forms of violence against women through the sustainable development goal, aiming to see changes by the year 2030. As such, various countries have implemented psychosocial interventions of different levels of impact. However, little is known, especially in low- and middle-income countries, with regard to the potential of psychosocial interventions for IPV to improve the mental health outcomes for the survivors and/or victims of IPV. Analysing the risk for IPV through a social-ecological theoretical approach, low- and middle-income countries still readdressing gender inequality which is the cause of intimate partner violence. That is why it is taking time for these countries to shift psychosocial interventions to focus more on the improvement of the mental health of the survivors. It is, therefore, against this backdrop that the researcher intends to undertake a scoping review to understand the nature and characteristics of psychosocial interventions that have been implemented in low- and middle-income countries. With the findings from the scoping review, the researcher aims to develop a conceptual framework that may be a useful resource for healthcare practitioners and researchers in low- and middle-income countries. As this area of research has not been thoroughly reviewed, the results from this scoping will determine whether a systematic review will be justifiable. Additionally, the researcher will identify gaps and opportunities for future research in this area.

Keywords: mental health improvement, psychosocial interventions, intimate partner violence, LMICs

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Authors: Lei Li, Ping Yin, Haneen Khreis

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Stroke is the second leading cause of death and a third leading cause of death and disability worldwide in 2019. Given the significant role of environmental factors in stroke development and progression, it is essential to investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke occurrence while considering the modifying effects of meteorological variables. This study aimed to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and the incidence of stroke subtypes in Shenzhen, China, and to explore the potential interactions of meteorological factors with air pollutants. The study analyzed data from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014, including 88,214 cases of ischemic stroke and 30,433 cases of hemorrhagic stroke among residents of Shenzhen. Using a time-stratified case–crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression, the study estimated the percentage changes in stroke morbidity associated with short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 mm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). A five-day moving average of air pollution was applied to capture the cumulative effects of air pollution. The estimates were further stratified by sex, age, education level, and season. The additive and multiplicative interaction between air pollutants and meteorologic variables were assessed by the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and adding the interactive term into the main model, respectively. The study found that NO₂ was positively associated with ischemic stroke occurrence throughout the year and in the cold season (November through April), with a stronger effect observed among men. Each 10 μg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of NO₂ was associated with a 2.38% (95% confidence interval was 1.36% to 3.41%) increase in the risk of ischemic stroke over the whole year and a 3.36% (2.04% to 4.69%) increase in the cold season. The harmful effect of CO on ischemic stroke was observed only in the cold season, with each 1 mg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of CO increasing the risk by 12.34% (3.85% to 21.51%). There was no statistically significant additive interaction between individual air pollutants and temperature or relative humidity, as demonstrated by the RERI. The interaction term in the model showed a multiplicative antagonistic effect between NO₂ and temperature (p-value=0.0268). For hemorrhagic stroke, no evidence of the effects of any individual air pollutants was found in the whole population. However, the RERI indicated a statistically additive and multiplicative interaction of temperature on the effects of PM10 and O₃ on hemorrhagic stroke onset. Therefore, the insignificant conclusion should be interpreted with caution. The study suggests that environmental NO₂ and CO might increase the morbidity of ischemic stroke, particularly during the cold season. These findings could help inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution levels to prevent stroke and other health conditions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights into the interaction between air pollution and meteorological variables, which underscores the need for further research into the complex relationship between environmental factors and health.

Keywords: air pollution, meteorological variables, interactive effect, seasonal pattern, stroke

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Authors: M. Medrano, M. D. M. S., L. Younes, M. D.

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Introduction: Incidence of tibial hemimelia is 1:1,000,000. Due to pre-existing case studies and literature, there is now a better understanding of the genetics, etiology and pathoanatomy of tibial hemimelia, but an underlying cause is generally unknown. This presentation aims to discuss a rare, congenital lower limb deficiency observed in a patient in order to identify potential prenatal risk factors and future considerations for the patient’s well-being. Observation: A newborn female child, born full term via spontaneous vaginal delivery after induction of labor to unaffected and non-consanguineous parents. The prenatal course was notable for limited and disjointed prenatal care as well as maternal tobacco and marijuana use, anemia of pregnancy, and inadequate weight gain. Prenatal imaging showed lower extremity deformity with the inability to visualize tibia and bilateral clubfeet in the setting of Intrauterine Growth Restriction (IUGR). The patient presented with right equino varus deformity of the foot and right knee joint deformity. Radiological imaging showed the absence of the right tibia and varus angulation of the right foot with dislocation of the tibiotalar joint. Normal femur with lateral and mild anterior displacement of a wide fibula (Weber Type VIIa). Due to the absence of the patient’s tibia and knee extensor mechanism, the patient was not a candidate for reconstructive surgery and ultimately underwent successful right knee disarticulation. Discussion and Conclusion: By utilizing a retrospective chart review of this case, possible risk factors in prenatal care may be identified and add to existing knowledge on etiology. Hopefully, a cause can be clearly identified in the future and, thus, addressed in the prenatal period. In addition, we can investigate the patient’s well-being and adjustment post-operatively to support outpatient management of an uncommon anomaly.

Keywords: Tibial hemimelia, prenatal care, pediatric orthopedics, congenital deformity

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Authors: Madhav Khadilkar

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Construction of a large standby reservoir was required to provide secure water supply. The new reservoir was required to be constructed at the same location of an abandoned old open pond due to space constraints. Some investigations were carried out earlier to improvise and re-commission the existing pond. But due to a lack of quantified risk of settlement from voids in the underlying limestone, the shallow foundations were not found feasible. Since the reservoir was resting on hard strata for about three-quarter of plan area and one quarter was resting on soil underlying with limestone and considerably low subgrade modulus. Further investigations were carried out to ascertain the locations and extent of voids within the limestone. It was concluded that the risk due to lime dissolution was acceptably low, and the site was found geotechnically feasible. The hazard posed by limestone dissolution was addressed through the integrated structural and geotechnical analysis and design approach. Finite Element Analysis was carried out to quantify the stresses and differential settlement due to various probable loads and soil-structure interaction. Walls behaving as cantilever under operational loads were found undergoing in-plane bending and tensile forces due to soil-structure interaction. Sensitivity analysis for varying soil subgrade modulus was carried out to check the variation in the response of the structure and magnitude of stresses developed. The base slab was additionally checked for the loss of soil contact due to lime pocket formations at random locations. The expansion and contraction joints were planned to receive minimal additional forces due to differential settlement. The reservoir was designed to sustain the actions corresponding to allowable deformation limits per code, and geotechnical measures were proposed to achieve the soil parameters set in structural analysis.

Keywords: differential settlement, limestone dissolution, reservoir, soil structure interaction

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Authors: Alaa Ashraf Khaleel Abdallah

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Background: The global landscape has witnessed an alarming rise in armed conflicts, further devastating populations through enforced displacement, compromised infrastructure, and strained healthcare systems. In Sudan, the situation is particularly dire, with conflict exacerbating shortages in medical supplies and personnel, pushing the already fragile healthcare system into crisis, especially affecting surgical care. Initially, war impacts were significant in conflict zones like Khartoum, but since mid-April 2023, the entire country has descended into chaos. Weak monitoring and health information systems hinder accurate assessment of surgical care in conflict zones, leading to inadequate resource allocation, suboptimal care, and missed opportunities for global learning. This study investigates the impact of the Sudanese conflict on postoperative complications, exploring prevalence, types, outcomes, and psychological effects in conflict and safe areas. Methods: Conducted across 10 Sudanese states—5 in conflict zones such as Khartoum and West Darfur, and 5 in safer regions like River Nile and Kassala—this study analyzed data from 1,457 patients who underwent surgery post-April 2023. Data were collected using a pretested, mixed-mode questionnaire that incorporated elements from validated frameworks and tailored questions specific to the study's context. Hospital records and surgical logs were also used, with data analyzed via SPSS. Results: The overall prevalence of postoperative complications was 35.89%, with a higher rate in conflict zones (57.5%) compared to safe areas (26.4%). Surgical site infections predominated in conflict zones (24.7%) and higher than its prevalence in safe areas, and while fever was prevalent in safer regions even though much less compared to conflict areas, bleeding from surgical site was very frequent in conflict areas. Most patients recovered within two months at a rate higher in safe areas, but most of them required further medical or surgical management within the first month, but psychological impacts were more pronounced in conflict zones with 22.22% reported anxiety among injuries patients, and 20.6% experienced depression, 13.5% and 16.9% respectively, in those had surgeries for other medical conditions, compared to 0.22%anxiety rates and 8.1%for depression in safer regions. Risk factors included age, travel to conflict zones, access to care, delays, and comorbidities. Conclusion: Strengthening healthcare systems and ensuring accessible surgical care are critical in both conflict and safe areas. Specific attention must be given to addressing patient suffering and demographic shifts caused by armed conflict. Further research is needed to refine the predictive model for postoperative complications in conflict zones.

Keywords: postoperative complications, conflict zones, risk factors, surgical outcomes, Sudan

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Authors: A. Khan, I. Khan, M. Younus, S. E. Haque, U. Waheed, H. Neubauer, A. A. Anjum, S. A. Muhammad, A. Idrees T. Abbas, S. Raza, M. A. Ali, M. Farooq, M. Mahmood, A. Hussain, H. Danish, U. Tayyab, M. Zafar, M. Aslam.

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Brucellosis is one of the major problems of milk producing animals in our country which deteriorate the health of livestock. It is a disease of zoonotic significance which is capable of producing disease in humans leading to infertility, orchitis, abortions, and synovitis. In this particular study, milk and serum samples of cattle and buffalo (n=402) were collected from different districts of Punjab including Narowal, Gujranwala and Gujrat. Milk samples were analyzed by Milk Ring Test (MRT), while serum samples were tested through Rose Bengal Plate agglutination Test (RBPT) and Indirect Enzyme Linked Immunosorbant Assay (i-ELISA). The sample tested with MRT were 9.5% positive, including cattle 9.6% and buffalo 9.3%. While using the RBPT test for the detection of serum samples and for screening purpose it was observed that 16.4% animals were seropositive, cattle were 18.8% and buffalo were 13.9% seropositive. The higher prevalence of brucellosis indicates the danger of the disease to human population. The serum samples positive by RBPT were further confirmed by the use of most specific and sensitive serological test known as i-ELISA. 11.4% animals were confirmed as seropositive by i-ELISA including cattle 13.5% seropositive and buffalo 9.3%. The results indicated high seroprevalence of brucellosis in cattle as compared to buffalos. Different risk factors were also studied to know the association between disease and their spread. Advanced age, larger herds, history of abortion and pregnancy of the animals is considered to be the important factors for the prevalence and spread of the hazardous zoonotic disease. It is a core issue of developing countries like Pakistan and has major public health impact.

Keywords: humans, bovines, infertility, orchitis, abortions, seroprevalence, brucellosis

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Authors: Arman Kishan, Mark Haft, Kiyanna Thomas, Duc Nguyen, Dawn Laporte

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Objective: Patients receiving anticoagulation therapy frequently experience increased rates of postoperative complications. Presently, limited data exist regarding the outcomes of patients undergoing carpal tunnel release surgery (CTR) while on anticoagulation. Our objective is to examine and compare the occurrence of complications in patients on anticoagulation who underwent either endoscopic CTR (ECTR) or open CTR (OCTR) for CTS. Methods: The Trinet X database was utilized to retrospectively identify patients who underwent OCTR or ECTR while concurrently on anticoagulation. Demographic data, medical comorbidities, and complication rates were analyzed. We used multivariable analysis to identify differences in postoperative complications, including wound infection within 90 days, wound dehiscence within 90 days, and intraoperative median nerve injury between the two surgical methods in patients on anticoagulation. Results: A total of 10,919 carpal tunnel syndrome patients on anticoagulation were included in the study, with 9082 and 1837 undergoing OCTR and ECTR, respectively. Among patients on anticoagulation, those undergoing ECTR exhibited a significantly lower occurrence of 90-day wound infection (p < 0.001) and nerve injury (p < 0.001) compared to those who underwent OCTR. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the risk of 90-day wound dehiscence between the two groups (p = 0.323). Conclusion:  In prior studies, ECTR demonstrated reduced rates of postoperative complications compared to OCTR in the general population. Our study demonstrates that among patients on anticoagulation, those undergoing ECTR experienced a significantly lower incidence of 90-day wound infection and nerve injury, with risk reductions of 35% and 40%, respectively. These findings support using ECTR as a preferred surgical method for patients with CTS who are on anticoagulation therapy.

Keywords: endoscopic treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, open treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, postoperative complications in patients on anticoagulation, carpal tunnel syndrome

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Authors: Muhammad Isa Khan, Jalil Ur Rehman, Muhammad Afzal Khan Rao, James Chow

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Purpose: This study investigates the dose-volume variations in planning target volume (PTV) and organs-at-risk (OARs) using different collimator angles for smart arc prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Awareness of the collimator angle for PTV and OARs sparing is essential for the planner because optimization contains numerous treatment constraints producing a complex, unstable and computationally challenging problem throughout its examination of an optimal plan in a rational time. Materials and Methods: Single arc VMAT plans at different collimator angles varied systematically (0°-90°) were performed on a Harold phantom and a new treatment plan is optimized for each collimator angle. We analyzed the conformity index (CI), homogeneity index (HI), gradient index (GI), monitor units (MUs), dose-volume histogram, mean and maximum doses to PTV. We also explored OARs (e.g. bladder, rectum and femoral heads), dose-volume criteria in the treatment plan (e.g. D30%, D50%, V30Gy and V38Gy of bladder and rectum; D5%,V14Gy and V22Gy of femoral heads), dose-volume histogram, mean and maximum doses for smart arc VMAT at different collimator angles. Results: There was no significance difference found in VMAT optimization at all studied collimator angles. However, if 0.5% accuracy is concerned then collimator angle = 45° provides higher CI and lower HI. Collimator angle = 15° also provides lower HI values like collimator angle 45°. It is seen that collimator angle = 75° is established as a good for rectum and right femur sparing. Collimator angle = 90° and collimator angle = 30° were found good for rectum and left femur sparing respectively. The PTV dose coverage statistics for each plan are comparatively independent of the collimator angles. Conclusion: It is concluded that this study will help the planner to have freedom to choose any collimator angle from (0°-90°) for PTV coverage and select a suitable collimator angle to spare OARs.

Keywords: VMAT, dose-volume histogram, collimator angle, organs-at-risk

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Authors: Bryan Low

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In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

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Authors: Harshith Gowda K. S, Tejaskumar N, Shubhanga R. B, Gowtham N, Deekshith Gowda H. S

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Phasor measurement units (PMU) are playing an important role in the current power system for state estimation. It is necessary to have complete observability of the power system while minimizing the cost. For this purpose, the optimal location of the phasor measurement units in the power system is essential. In a bus system, zero injection buses need to be evaluated to minimize the number of PMUs. In this paper, the optimization problem is formulated using mixed integer programming to obtain the optimal location of the PMUs with increased observability. The formulation consists of with and without zero injection bus as constraints. The formulated problem is simulated using a CPLEX solver in the GAMS software package. The proposed method is tested on IEEE 30, IEEE 39, IEEE 57, and IEEE 118 bus systems. The results obtained show that the number of PMUs required is minimal with increased observability.

Keywords: PMU, observability, mixed integer programming (MIP), zero injection buses (ZIB)

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Authors: Riktesh Srivastava

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Online Shopping have established an astonishing evolution in the last few years. And it is now apparent that B2C architecture is becoming progressively imperative channel for even traditional brick and mortar type traders as well. In this completion knowing customers and predicting behavior are extremely important. More important, when any customer logs onto the B2C architecture, the traces of their buying patterns can be stored and used for future predictions. Such a prediction is called Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). Earlier, we used Net Present Value to do so, however, it ignores two important aspects of B2C architecture, “market risks” and “big amount of customer data”. Now, we use RFM- Recency, Frequency and Monetary Value to estimate the CLV, and as the term exemplifies, market risks, is well sheltered. Big Data Analysis is also roofed in RFM, which gives real exploration of the Big Data and lead to a better estimation for future cash flow from customers. In the present paper, 6 factors (collected from varied sources) are used to determine as to what attracts the customers to the B2C architecture. For these 6 factors, RFM is computed for 3 years (2013, 2014 and 2015) respectively. CLV and Revenue are the two parameters defined using RFM analysis, which gives the clear picture of the future predictions.

Keywords: CLV, RFM, revenue, recency, frequency, monetary value

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Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

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The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.

Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance

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Authors: Yu Liang, Wei Wei

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Spatial representation of numbers and numerical magnitude are important for preschoolers’ mathematical ability. Mental number line, a typical index to measure numbers spatial representation, and numerical comparison are both related to arithmetic obviously. However, they seem to rely on different mechanisms and probably influence arithmetic through different mechanisms. In line with this idea, preschool children were trained with two tasks to investigate which one is more important for approximate arithmetic. The training of numerical processing and number line estimation were proved to be effective. They both improved the ability of approximate arithmetic. When the difficulty of approximate arithmetic was taken into account, the performance in number line training group was not significantly different among three levels. However, two harder levels achieved significance in numerical comparison training group. Thus, comparing spatial representation ability, symbolic approximation arithmetic relies more on numerical magnitude. Educational implications of the study were discussed.

Keywords: approximate arithmetic, mental number line, numerical magnitude, preschooler

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Authors: Asma Naseer Cheema, Attya Bhatti, Jabar Ali, John Peter

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Background: High cholesterol levels, endothelial dysfunction, inefficient coagulation cascade and hyper inflammatory response all are the basis of coronary artery disease (CAD). Several studies are carried out to see the genetic influence of these factors on disease outcome. Objective: The objective of our study was to see the association of 10 putative loci with coronary artery disease in our population. Materials & Methods: We screened our population for 10 putative loci of CAD showing significant association (p < 5x10-8) with candidate genes (regulating the cholesterol metabolism, endothelial function, coagulation cascade and inflammatory response of body). Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium in cases and controls s were estimated separately. Approximately 5-10 ng of dried DNA in 384 well plate format was used to genotype each sample on the Sequenom iPLEX assay at University of Pittsburgh Genomics and Proteomics Core Laboratories. It was built on single-base primer extension with the MALDI-TOF MS detection possessing high sensitivity and specificity. The SNPs were genotyped through Taqman assay. Hardy Weinberg test was applied. The 10 SNPs were selected as genetic markers for this study (rs579459, rs1561198, rs2954029, rs1122608, rs17114036, rs9515203, rs10947789, rs7173743, rs2895811, rs2075650). Results: Mean age of the patient was 52 ± 11 years. Blood pressure and positive family history was found a significant risk factor for CAD. None of the selected SNPs showed significant association with coronary artery disease in our population (p>0.05). Conclusion: rs579459, rs1561198, rs2954029, rs1122608, rs17114036, rs9515203, rs10947789, rs7173743, rs2895811, rs2075650 are not significant genetic markers for CAD in our population.

Keywords: CAD, genetic markers, loci, risk factors

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Authors: Malika Kharouf, Aly Chkeir, Khac Tuan Huynh

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Detecting change points in time series data is a challenging problem, especially in scenarios where there is limited prior knowledge regarding the data’s distribution and the nature of the transitions. We present a method designed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of high-dimensional time series data, where the number of variables closely matches the data length. Our objective is to achieve unbiased test statistic estimation under the null hypothesis. We delve into the utilization of Random Matrix Theory to analyze the behavior of our test statistic within a high-dimensional context. Specifically, we illustrate that our test statistic converges pointwise to a normal distribution under the null hypothesis. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed approach, we conduct evaluations on a simulated dataset. Furthermore, we employ our method to examine changes aimed at detecting frailty in the elderly.

Keywords: change point detection, hypothesis tests, random matrix theory, frailty in elderly

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Authors: Paras Agarwal

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Background: Initially believed to be rare, metastases to the eye are the most common ocular malignancy. The choroid’s high perfusion rate not only makes it the most susceptible ocular site for tumour seeding, but also promotes its growth. The cancers most frequently responsible for choroidal metastases originate from the breast and lung, although a significant proportion have unidentified primaries at the time of presentation. Case Presentation: This case report describes a 34 year old female presenting to the ophthalmology department with a one month history of painless distorted vision. On fundus examination, she was noted to have bilateral choroidal lesionsand subsequently underwent a comprehensive diagnostic work-up. The patient was diagnosed with metastatic pulmonary adenocarcinoma, despite lacking conventional risk factors. As she was found to have a mutation in EGFR, the patient was commenced on tyrosine-kinase inhibition with afatinib. The choroidal lesions regressed with a significant improvement in visual acuity and a dramatic anatomical reduction of the choroidal masses. Conclusions: Our case demonstrates the importance of considering metastases as a differential diagnosis for choroidal lesions. Appropriate and thorough history-taking, examination and investigations may be required in order to deduce the underlying cause. Our case is unusual in view of the choroidal lesion being the primary manifestation of metastatic lung cancer in a young patient with no known risk factors. Early recognition of choroidal metastases is important as it is often the first sign of tumour dissemination and will prompt earlier treatment with systemic medications such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy or hormonal therapy. Our case report also demonstrates the efficacy of afatinib for the treatment of choroidal metastases, with morphological and functional improvements observed with regard to the choroidal metastatic tumour.

Keywords: choroidal neoplasm, choroidal naevus, pulmonary adenocarcinoma, metastases, lung cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 140