Search results for: economic policy uncertainty

Authors: Daniela Lamaison Sepulveda

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Critical media literacy teaches people to think analytically about the information they receive through the media. It is heavily influenced by Paulo Freire’s critical pedagogy and the necessity of becoming conscious of one’s reality in order to transform it. This qualitative research examines the case of Bolivia, which experienced dramatic political change after the first indigenous president, Evo Morales, was elected in 2006. In 2010, the government passed an education reform — the Avelino Siñani Elizardo Pérez (ASEP) —that draws heavily on decolonial thought and the Freirean notion of critical consciousness. The extent to which these theories were implemented in practice is evaluated in context of a media literacy project, run by an NGO, that trains secondary school teachers from public schools across Bolivia through yearly workshops ranging from producing media to identifying fake news. This context is examined against the backdrop of the highly contested general elections in October 2019. While there is plenty of literature that outlines the benefits of teaching media literacy in the classroom and different ways to apply it, little research has been done analysing implementation at an institutional level and how to best enable teachers who are motivated to teach the subject. Through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and naturalistic observations, this study aims to identify the struggles faced by teachers who are dedicated to teaching critical media literacy in their classrooms and how they navigate educational spaces while being subject to a demanding national curriculum that supposedly also seeks to promote critical thinking. The interplay between the aspirations of teachers and NGOs in contrast to the top-down discourse and policy of governmental institutions provides for a very enlightening case. By exploring these institutional, cultural, sociopolitical and economic barriers the teachers face, this research attempts to contribute to the debate in media literacy theories concerned with implementing the practice in schools.

Keywords: media literacy, critical pedagogy, teacher agency, misinformation, education reform, Bolivia

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Authors: Belachew Gebrewold

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The Horn of Africa is marred by complex and systematic internal and external political, economic and social-cultural causes of conflict that result in internal displacement and migration. This paper engages with them and shows how such a study can help us to understand migration, both in this region and more generally. The conflict has occurred within states, between states, among proxies, between armies. Human insecurities as a result of the state collapse of Somalia, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the whole region, recurrent drought affecting the livelihoods of subsistence farmers as well as nomads, exposure to hunger, environmental degradation, youth unemployment, rapid growth of slums around big cities, and political repression (especially in Eritrea) have been driving various segments of the regional population into regional and international migration. Eritrea has been going through a brutal dictatorship which pushes many Eritreans to flee their country and be exposed to human trafficking, torture, detention, and agony on their way to Europe mainly through Egypt, Libya and Israel. Similarly, Somalia has been devastated since 1991 by unending civil war, state collapse, and radical Islamists. There are some important aspects to highlight in the conflict-migration nexus in the Horn of Africa: first, the main push factor for the Somalis and Eritreans to leave their countries and risk their lives is the physical insecurity they have been facing in their countries. Secondly, as a result of the conflict the economic infrastructure is massively destroyed. Investment is rare; job opportunities are out of sight. Thirdly, in such a grim situation the politically and economically induced decision to migrate is a household decision, not only an individual decision. Based on this third point this research study took place in the Horn of Africa between 2014 and 2016 during different occasions. The main objective of the research was to understanding how the increasing migration is affecting the socio-economic and socio-political environment, and conversely how the socio-economic and socio-political environments are increasing migration decisions; and whether and how these decisions are individual or family decisions. The main finding is the higher the human insecurity, the higher the family decision; the lower the human insecurity, the higher the individual decision. These findings apply not only to the Eritrean, Somali migrants but also to Ethiopian migrants. But the general impacts of migration on sending countries’ human security is quite mixed and complex.

Keywords: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Horn of Africa, insecurity, migration, Somalia

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Authors: Nicolay Worren, Christopher A. Brown

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Axiomatic design (AD) has mainly been applied to support the design of physical products and software solutions. However, it was intended as a general design approach that would also be applicable to the design of social systems, including organizations (i.e., organization design). In this article, we consider how AD may be successfully transferred to the field of organizational design. On the one hand, it provides a much-needed pragmatic approach that can help leaders clarify the link between the purpose and structure of their organizations, identify ineffective organizational structures, and increase the chance of achieving strategic goals. On the other hand, there are four conceptual challenges that may create uncertainty and resistance among scholars and practitioners educated in the social sciences: 1) The exclusive focus in AD on negative interdependencies ('coupling'); 2) No obvious way of representing the need for integration across design parameters (DPs); 3) A lack of principles for handling control processes that seem to require 'deliberate coupling' of FRs; and 4) A lack of principles for handling situations where conflicting FRs (i.e., coupling) might require integration rather than separation. We discuss alternative options for handling these challenges so that scholars and practitioners can make use of AD for organization design.

Keywords: axiomatic design, organization design, social systems, concept definitions

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Authors: Runlian Miao, Wei Xie, Hong Zhang

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In China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is regarded as a strategically important region because itenjoys highest development in economic development, opening up, innovative capacity and andpopulation. Integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasingly emphasized by the government recently years. In 2014, it has ascended to one of the national great development strategies by Chinese central government. In 2015, Coordinated Development Planning Compendium for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was approved. Such decisions signify Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would lead innovation-driven economic development in China. As an essential factor to achieve national innovation-driven development and significant part of regional industry chain, the optimization of science and technology resources allocation will exert great influence to regional economic transformation and upgrading and innovation-driven development. However, unbalanced distribution, poor sharing of resources and existence of information isolated islands have contributed to different interior innovation capability, vitality and efficiency, which impeded innovation and growth of the whole region. Under such a background, to integrate and vitalize regional science and technology resources and then establish high-end, fast-responding and precise innovation service system basing on regional resources, would be of great significance for integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and even handling of unbalanced and insufficient development problem in China. This research uses the method of literature review and field investigation and applies related theories prevailing home and abroad, centering service path of science and technology resources for innovation. Based on the status quo and problems of regional development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, theoretically, the author proposed to combine regional economics and new economic geography to explore solution to problem of low resource allocation efficiency. Further, the author puts forward to applying digital map into resource management and building a platform for information co-building and sharing. At last, the author presents the thought to establish a specific service mode of ‘science and technology plus digital map plus intelligence research plus platform service’ and suggestion on co-building and sharing mechanism of 3 (Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei ) plus 11 (important cities in Hebei Province).

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, science and technology resources, innovation service, digital platform

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Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

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This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds

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Authors: Yannay Casas-Ledon, Cinthya A. Andrade, Camila E. Salazar, Mauricio Aguayo

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The sustainable management of available natural resources is a crucial question for policy-makers, economists, and the research community. Among several, land constitutes one of the most critical resources, which is being intensively appropriated by human activities producing ecological stresses and reducing ecosystem services. In this context, net primary production (NPP) has been considered as a feasible proxy indicator for estimating the impacts of human interventions on land-uses intensity. Accordingly, the human appropriation of NPP (HANPP) was calculated for the south-central regions of Chile between 2007 and 2014. The HANPP was defined as the difference between the potential NPP of the naturally produced vegetation (NPP0, i.e., the vegetation that would exist without any human interferences) and the NPP remaining in the field after harvest (NPPeco), expressed in gC/m² yr. Other NPP flows taken into account in HANPP estimation were the harvested (NPPh) and the losses of NPP through land conversion (NPPluc). The ArcGIS 10.4 software was used for assessing the spatial and temporal HANPP changes. The differentiation of HANPP as % of NPP0 was estimated by each landcover type taken in 2007 and 2014 as the reference years. The spatial results depicted a negative impact on land use efficiency during 2007 and 2014, showing negative HANPP changes for the whole region. The harvest and biomass losses through land conversion components are the leading causes of loss of land-use efficiency. Furthermore, the study depicted higher HANPP in 2014 than in 2007, representing 50% of NPP0 for all landcover classes concerning 2007. This performance was mainly related to the higher volume of harvested biomass for agriculture. In consequence, the cropland depicted the high HANPP followed by plantation. This performance highlights the strong positive correlation between the economic activities developed into the region. This finding constitutes the base for a better understanding of the main driving force influencing biomass productivity and a powerful metric for supporting the sustainable management of land use.

Keywords: human appropriation, land-use changes, land-use impact, net primary productivity

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Authors: Getabalew Derib, Arragaw Alemayehu

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Assessing the sustainability of watersheds holds significant importance for regional natural resource management and to achieve sustainable development. This study investigated the sustainability of the Wulo Abiye watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia. The sustainability status of the watershed was evaluated by using 17 indicators representing the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development goals (SDGs) based on the local and existing conditions of the watershed. The results indicated that environmental sustainability was at a ’ high’ level, while social and economic sustainability and the aggregate index were at ‘moderate’ levels. The overall level of community participation in the planning and evaluation phases of watershed management was at ’low’ levels. The implementation phase was at ’high’ level. Overall , the sustainability status of watershed management and level of community participation were at ‘moderate’ levels. The study concluded that integrated support is needed to overcome the identified challenges to achieve sustainable development in watersheds.

Keywords: Wulo Abiye watershed, community participation, watershed management, sustainable development

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Guo Rui, Cao Xinhu

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In recent decades, the world has endured severe challenges in light of climate change, epidemics, geopolitics, terrorism, economic uncertainties, as well as regional conflicts and rivalries. The appropriate use of critical infrastructures (Cis) is confronted. Ports, as typical Cis cover more than 80% of the global freight movement. Within this context, even the minimal disruption of port operations could cause malfunction of the holistic supply chain network and substantial economic losses. Hence, it is crucial to evaluate port performance from the perspective of resilience. Research on resilience and risk/safety management has been increasing, however, it needs more attention, as it could prevent potential socio-economic losses and inspire decision-makers to make resilience-based decisions to answer the challenges, such as COVID-19. To facilitate better moves from decision-makers, ports need to identify proper factors influencing port resilience. Inappropriately influenced factor selection could have a cascading effect on undesirable port performances. Thus, a systematic evaluation of factors is essential to stimulate the improvement process of port resilience investigation. This study zooms into container ports considering their critical role in international trade and global supply chains. 440 articles are selected after relevance ranking, and consequently, 62 articles are scrutinized after the title and abstract screening. Forty-one articles are included for bibliographic analysis in the end. It is found that there is no standardized index system to measure port resilience. And most studies evaluate port resilience merely in the recovery phase. Only two articles cover absorption, adaption and recovery state. However, no literature involves the prevention state. Hence, a uniform resilience index system is expected with a clear resilience definition. And port safety and security should also be considered while evaluating port resilience.

Keywords: port resilience, port safety and security, literature review, index system, port performance

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Authors: T. Aragaw, P. Gari

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In spite of social, political, and economic marginalization, women are still considered as the backbone of Ethiopia, one of the least developed countries in the world. The general purpose of this study was to assess factors that affect participation of women in politics, social and economic decisions at Kelem-Wollega Administrative Zone of Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Data used in this paper is mainly primary, and a few secondary data were incorporated. Respondents were selected using a systematic random sampling method and were placed questionnaires containing open-ended and closed-ended. Focus group discussion was also used for the study subjects in two offices. According to the information collected from the KWAZ Development and Social Service Office, a total of 18,473 tax-paying employees are present in the Zone, which is 14% of the total population of the Zone. Among the total number of employees in the Zone, 2,617 have been recruited for this study based on the criteria stated. This showed 1.8% of them were comprised of several churches and religious owned integrated development projects in the KWAZ. The 2,103 (80.34%) study participants responded personally, and they completed and returned the questionnaire to the researchers. The study revealed that in public institutions existed in KWAZ, the majority of women were having an educational status of diploma and lower, practicing lower non-decision making and leadership positions. Conclusion: Major barriers hindering women include: Socio-cultural attitudes, lack of necessary experience, education, the burden of domestic responsibilities, and lack of role models of women leaders in the Zone. Empowerment of women via social organizations, critical involvement of the government, and Affirmative action for women is critical. Further research is needed on the scope and challenges in implementing the strategies.

Keywords: women, affirmative action, leadership, empowerment, Ethiopia

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, culture, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili

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The paper analyses the role of small farms in socio-economic development of agriculture in Georgia and evaluates modern concepts regarding the development of the farms of this size. The scale of farms in Georgia is studied and the major problems are revealed. Opportunities and directions of diversification are discussed from the point of increasing the share of Georgian grapes and wine both on domestic and international markets. It’s shown that the size of vineyard areas is directly reflected on the grape and wine production potential. Accordingly, vineyard area and grape production dynamics is discussed. Comparative analysis of small farms in Georgia and Italy is made and the major differences are identified. Diversification is evaluated based on cost-benefit analysis on the one hand and on the other hand, from the point of promoting economic activities, protecting nature and rural area development. The paper provides proofs for the outcomes of diversification. The key hindering factors for the development of small farms are identified and corresponding conclusions are made, based on which recommendations for diversification of the farms of this size are developed.

Keywords: small farms, scale of farms, diversification, Georgia

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Authors: Shih-Jen Feng, Nai-Chia Chao, Meng-Chi Shih, Chien-Chi Chang

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Today, Taiwan agriculture operates under small business scale with economic insufficiency, due to aging population, unproductiveness, inadequate systematic management, insufficient agro-economic scale, and cultivation on agro-education. Moreover, because of farming special working method (physical tiring, shackled weather condition), environment (asymmetric distribution information), hours devoted (unbalance wealth), the willingness for younger generation to delicate into agriculture farming is rare. Although government had provided policies to harmonize the existing problem, significant result is unseen. Living lab (LL) is a methodology approach to sense, prototype and validate complex solutions in real life context. This paper contributes an innovative interaction methodology by probing under implementation of diverse LL sector merging big data analysis utilizing rural redevelopment and revitalization plan of Wufeng.

Keywords: living lab approach, historic rural redevelopment, innovation model, innovation approach

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Authors: M. Tahir Demirsel, Mustafa Atsan

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Many elements of the environment in which businesses operate today leave them faced with unexpected threats and opportunities. One of the major threats is business crisis. The crisis is a state of affairs in a business wherein the executives must take urgent and unprecedented action to try to save the business from failure. In order to survive in the business environment, organizations should be prepared for the potential crises. Technological developments, uncertainty in the market and the intense competition increase the probability of encountering a crisis for organizations. Therefore, by acting proactively to predict crisis, to detect signals of crisis and be prepared for a crisis by taking necessary precautions accordingly, is of great importance for businesses. In this context, the objective of this study is to reveal that how much organizations are proactive and can predict the future crises and investigate whether they are prepared for possible crises or not. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). The findings are analyzed through descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. According to the results, it has been observed that organizations cannot predict the crisis signals and are not prepared for potential crises.

Keywords: crisis preparedness, crisis signals, industrial organizations, proactivity

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Authors: Abder-Rahman Ali, Antoine Vacavant, Manuel Grand-Brochier, Adélaïde Albouy-Kissi, Jean-Yves Boire

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In this paper, we present a new segmentation approach for liver lesions in regions of interest within MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging). This approach, based on a two-cluster Fuzzy C-Means methodology, considers the parameter variable compactness to handle uncertainty. Fine boundaries are detected by a local recursive merging of ambiguous pixels with a sequential forward floating selection with Zernike moments. The method has been tested on both synthetic and real images. When applied on synthetic images, the proposed approach provides good performance, segmentations obtained are accurate, their shape is consistent with the ground truth, and the extracted information is reliable. The results obtained on MR images confirm such observations. Our approach allows, even for difficult cases of MR images, to extract a segmentation with good performance in terms of accuracy and shape, which implies that the geometry of the tumor is preserved for further clinical activities (such as automatic extraction of pharmaco-kinetics properties, lesion characterization, etc).

Keywords: defuzzification, floating search, fuzzy clustering, Zernike moments

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Authors: Dorota M. Michalak

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The agricultural sector, due to the growing demand for food and over-exploitation of the natural environment, contributes to the deepening of climate change, on the one hand, and on the other hand, shrinking freshwater resources, as a negative effect of climate change, threaten the food security of each country. Therefore, adaptation measures to climate change should take into account effective water management and seek solutions ensuring food production at an unchanged or higher level, while not burdening the environment and not contributing to the worsening of the negative consequences of climate change. The problems of Poland's water management result not only from relatively small, natural water resources but to a large extent on the low efficiency of their use. Appropriate agricultural practices and state solutions in this field can contribute to achieving significant benefits in terms of economical water management in agriculture, providing a greater amount of water that could also be used for other purposes, including for purposes related to environmental protection. The aim of the article is to determine the level of use of water resources in Polish agriculture and the advancement of measures aimed at adapting Polish agriculture in the field of water management to climate change. The study provides knowledge about Polish legal regulations and water management tools, the shaping of water policy of Polish agriculture against the background of EU countries and other sources of energy, and measures supporting Polish agricultural holdings in the effective management of water resources run by state budget institutions. In order to achieve the above-mentioned goals, the author used research tools such as the analysis of existing sources and a survey conducted among five groups of entities, i.e. agricultural advisory centers and departments, agricultural, rural and environmental protection departments, regional water management boards, provincial agricultural chambers and restructuring and modernization of agriculture. The main conclusion of the analyses carried out is the low use of water in Polish agriculture in relation to other EU countries, other sources of intake in Poland, as well as irrigation. The analysis allows us to observe another problem, which is the lack of reporting and data collection, which is extremely important from the point of view of the effectiveness of adaptation measures to climate change. The results obtained from the survey indicate a very low level of support for government institutions in the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change and the water management of Polish farms. Some of the basic problems of the adaptation policy to change climate with regard to water management in Polish agriculture include a lack of knowledge regarding climate change, the possibilities of adapting, the available tools or ways to rationalize the use of water resources. It also refers to the lack of ordering procedures and the separation of responsibility with a proper territorial unit, non-functioning channels of information flow and practically low effects.

Keywords: water management, adaptation policy, agriculture, climate change

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Authors: Evangelia-Matroni Tomara

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This thesis answers the question whether the media representations and reporting in 2015-2016 - especially, after the image of the drowned three-year-old Syrian boy in the Mediterranean Sea which made global headlines in the beginning of September 2015 -, the European Commission regulatory sources material and related reporting, have the power to challenge the conceptualization of humanitarianism or even redefine it. The theoretical foundations of the thesis are based on humanitarianism and its core definitions, the power of media representations and the relative portrayal of migrants, refugees and/or asylum seekers, as well as the dominant migration discourse and EU migration governance. Using content analysis for the media portrayal of migrants (436 newspaper articles) and qualitative content analysis for the European Commission Communication documents from May 2015 until June 2016 that required various depths of interpretation, this thesis allowed us to revise the concept of humanitarianism, realizing that the current crisis may seem to be a turning point for Europe but is not enough to overcome the past hostile media discourses and suppress the historical perspective of security and control-oriented EU migration policies. In particular, the crisis helped to shift the intensity of hostility and the persistence in the state-centric, border-oriented securitization in Europe into a narration of victimization rather than threat where mercy and charity dynamics are dominated and into operational mechanisms, noting the emergency of immediate management of the massive migrations flows, respectively. Although, the understanding of a rights-based response to the ongoing migration crisis, is being followed discursively in both political and media stage, the nexus described, points out that the binary between ‘us’ and ‘them’ still exists, with only difference that the ‘invaders’ are now ‘pathetic’ but still ‘invaders’. In this context, the migration crisis challenges the concept of humanitarianism because rights dignify migrants as individuals only in a discursive or secondary level while the humanitarian work is mostly related with the geopolitical and economic interests of the ‘savior’ states.

Keywords: European Union politics, humanitarianism, immigration, media representation, policy-making, refugees, security studies

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Authors: Nur Ashida Salim, Muhammad Murtadha Othman, Ismail Musirin, Mohd Salleh Serwan

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Uncertainty of system operating conditions is one of the causative reasons which may render to the instability of a transmission system. This will encumber the performance of transmission system to efficiently transmit the electrical power between areas. For that reason, accurate assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) is essential in order to ensure effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of system uncertainties. The power transfer is also called as the Available Transfer Capability (ATC) in which it is the information required by the utilities and marketers to instigate selling and buying the electric energy. This paper proposes a computationally effective approach to estimate TRM and ATC by considering the uncertainties of system cascading collapse and transmission line outages which is identified as the main reasons in power system instability. In accordance to the results that have been obtained, the proposed method is essential for the transmission providers which could help the power marketers and planning sectors in the operation and reserving transmission services based on the ATC calculated.

Keywords: system cascading collapse, transmission line outages, transmission reliability margin, available transfer capability

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Rama Debbarma

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The present study deals with the performance of Linear base isolation system to mitigate seismic response of structures characterized by random system parameters. This involves optimization of the tuning ratio and damping properties of the base isolation system considering uncertain system parameters. However, the efficiency of base isolator may reduce if it is not tuned to the vibrating mode it is designed to suppress due to unavoidable presence of system parameters uncertainty. With the aid of matrix perturbation theory and first order Taylor series expansion, the total probability concept is used to evaluate the unconditional response of the primary structures considering random system parameters. For this, the conditional second order information of the response quantities are obtained in random vibration framework using state space formulation. Subsequently, the maximum unconditional root mean square displacement of the primary structures is used as the objective function to obtain optimum damping parameters Numerical study is performed to elucidate the effect of parameters uncertainties on the optimization of parameters of linear base isolator and system performance.

Keywords: linear base isolator, earthquake, optimization, uncertain parameters

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Authors: Zhiming Ye, Dejiang Wang, Huiling Zhao

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Development of the technology demands a higher-level research on the mechanical behavior of materials. Structural members made of bi-modulus materials have different elastic modulus when they are under tension and compression. The stress and strain states of the point effect on the elastic modulus and Poisson ratio of every point in the bi-modulus material body. Accompanied by the uncertainty and nonlinearity of the elastic constitutive relation is the complicated nonlinear problem of the bi-modulus members. In this paper, the small displacement and large displacement finite element method for the bi-modulus members have been proposed. Displacement nonlinearity is considered in the elastic constitutive equation. Mechanical behavior of slender bi-modulus beam-column under different boundary conditions and loading patterns has been simulated by the proposed method. The influence factors on the ultimate bearing capacity of slender beam and columns have been studied. The results show that as the ratio of tensile modulus to compressive modulus increases, the error of the simulation employing the same elastic modulus theory exceeds the engineering permissible error.

Keywords: bi-modulus, ultimate capacity, beam-column, nonlinearity

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Authors: S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi, A. Mollajan

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Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: banking system, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Integrated Resilience Engineering (IRE), performance evaluation, perturbation analysis

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Authors: Beata Ślusarczyk, Sebastian Kot

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In subjective terms, Polish SME sector occupies a prominent position in the national economic development, in which planning of the management strategies should be primarily based on identifying and meeting the innovation needs. As a research sample, there is chosen a printing sector of industry. SMEs share in printing sector in Poland is estimated at the level of 81% of all enterprises. In recent years, the printing industry achieved one of the highest levels of EU support in Poland. There is a relatively high increase in the development of technological innovations in equipment and the associated significant increase in production capacity. It can be also noticed that on average, every third enterprise belonging to the printing industry has implemented innovations, but not all of them effected in better economic results. Therefore, the aim of this article is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of innovation projects financed from the EU funds for performance of SMEs in the printing industry. As the results of research of EU funds co-financing effects on the development of innovation in the printing industry, it was specified that examined SMEs prefer to implement product innovation to receive a grant to the project at a level between 40% to 60%, the remaining part of the investment is usually covered with equity. The most common type of innovation had indicated a single implementation, related only to the change in process, technology, or organization. The relationship between variables of the EU funds and management of innovative activities was verified. It has been observed that the identified variables arising from the support in a form of the EU funds had a positive effect on the level of earned revenue, the increase in margin and in increase in employment as well. It was confirmed that the implemented innovations supported by the European funds have a positive impact on the performance of the printing companies. Although there is a risk that due to the decreasing demand for printing services such a high level of funding the companies in this sector will significantly increase competition in the long term, that may also contribute to the economic problems of the enterprises belonging to the analyzed branch.

Keywords: innovations, SMEs, performance, results

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Authors: Rashmi Shahu

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Flexibility is becoming a more widely accepted aspect of project management. Although contingency theory in project management states that the unknowns are controllable, complexity theory believes that the best way to handle the unknowns would be to have a flexible approach rather than rigidity. Designing a flexible system is a method of managing uncertainty. The present research work aims to evaluate flexibility in the initial design phase of projects taking examples of construction projects. Flexibility in the initial design phase is modeled in order to know the advantage in future. The comparison between the extra cost of flexibility in the initial design phase and the discount that can be achieved in future due to this premium will help the developers in making strategic decisions. This research uses a methodology for valuing flexibility by developing a mathematical formula for predicting future saving of cost. Two case studies were considered in this research to validate the mathematical formula. This research explains three case studies of an educational institution 28 years old for explaining the concept and giving benefits of flexible design for modification/renovation work of building.

Keywords: flexibility, future saving, flexibility cost, construction projects

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Authors: Monica Dantas

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At what socio-economic costs can the food industry offer products at low prices? This research seeks to understand and to explore how we attribute competence and meaning, what enables the outcomes of agriculture and what institutions provides validation regarding food production. This study objective is to explain and interpret conditions of the present state of agriculture in Brazil centring on two distinct segments, agribusiness and family farming, as the Brazilian, rapidly changing political environment unfolds. The approach is grounded in multidisciplinary literature drawing from the politics of development, the sociology of food, the sustainability framework and the conceptual differences between agribusiness and family farming regarding the innate purpose of the two segments. In addition, a quantitative portion of the research includes secondary data analysis from statistical measurements, economic indicators, federal budget information, and census data to compare the two segments, conveying a general snapshot of the conditions investigated. The results raised questions about the perceived image of the success of agribusiness, against some contradicting economic checks and balances. Analyzing how public funds are invested in agriculture shed light on what can enable or undermine the development of food systems in Brazil. It also revealed how politics, ideology, and corporations might influence the Brazilian Federal. In the 2000-2018 observed timeline of annual federal spending on agriculture in Brazil, there is variation in the amount invested in family farming that seems to 'coincide' with the ideological direction of the federal government in power. It was also observed that significant changes in the institutional framework and financial support either promoted or purposely undermined family farming importance using public institutions to validate support for agribusiness.

Keywords: food politics, sustainability, family farming, food system, public budget

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Authors: Nirman Kumar Ojha

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Bamboo plantation can be integrated for natural embankment against flood and live fencing against wild animals, at the same time provide economic opportunity for the poor farmers as a sustainable solution and adaptation alternative. 2010 flood in the Rui River completely inundated fields of four VDCs in Madi, Chitwan National Park with extensive bank erosion. The main aim of this action research was to identify an economically sustainable natural embankment against flood and also providing wildlife friendly fencing to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Community people especially poor farmers were trained for soil testing, land identification, plantation, and the harvesting regime, nursery set up and intercropping along with bamboo plantation on the edge of the river bank in order to reduce or minimize soil erosion. Results show that farmers are able to establish cost efficient and economically sustainable river embankment with bamboo plantation also creating a fence for wildlife which has also promoted bamboo cultivation and conservation. This action research has amalgamated flood control and wildlife control with the livelihood of the farmers which otherwise would cost huge resource. Another major impact of the bamboo plantation is its role in climate change and its adaptation process reducing degradation and improving vegetation cover contributing to landscape management. Based on this study, we conclude that bamboo plantation in Madi, Chitwan promoted the livelihood of the poor farmers providing a sustainable economic solution to reduce bank erosion, human-wildlife conflict and contributes to landscape management.

Keywords: climate change and conservation, economic opportunity, flood control, national park

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Authors: Francine Morales Tavares, Jose Alberto Rio Fernandes

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The expanding concept of Heritage and the increased relevance of how heritage places relate to their surroundings is associated with an important shift in public heritage policies and how they consider the development of cities and communities, with an increasingly relevant role of management. Within the current discussions, management plans, mandatory since the year 2005 in areas classified by UNESCO as World Heritage, it is a tool for the reconciliation of cultural heritage demands with the needs of multiple users of a certain area, being especially critical in the case of urban areas with intense touristic pressure. Considering the transformations of the heritage policy management model, this paper discusses the practices on the integration of cultural heritage in urban policies through indicators which were selected from resource manual 'Managing Cultural World Heritage (2013)' and analyzed two case studies: The Management Plan of the Historic Centre of Porto (Portugal) and The Management Plan for the Historic Site of Olinda (Brazil). The empirical evidence concluded that for the historic centre of Porto the increase of tourism is the main aim driver in the management plan, with positive and negative aspects on the heritage management point of view, unlike Olinda, where the plan for the development of local urban policies was identified as essential. Plans also differ in form, content and process but coincide on being unaligned with committed local political leaders’ agendas, with the consequent misunderstandings between theory and practice, planning and management, and critically missing in the field integration of urban policies. Therefore, more debate about management plans, more efficient tools and also, appropriate methodologies to correlate cultural heritage and urban public policy are still lacking.

Keywords: world heritage, management plan, planning, urban policies

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Authors: Amarasinghe Shashikala, Pramudika Hansini, Fernando Tajan, Rathnayake Piyumi

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This study investigates the prominence of the social entrepreneurship (SE) model over the sustainable entrepreneurship model among Sri Lankan exporters in the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector. The primary objective of this study is to explore how the unique socio-economic contextual nuances of the country influence this behavior. The study employs a multiple-case study approach, collecting data from thirteen SEs in the SME sector. The findings reveal a significant alignment between SE and the lifestyle of the people in Sri Lanka, attributed largely to its deep-rooted religious setting and cultural norms. A crucial factor driving the prominence of SE is the predominantly labor-intensive nature of production processes within the exporters of the SME sector. These processes inherently lend themselves to SE, providing employment opportunities and fostering community engagement. Further, SE initiatives substantially resonate with community-centric practices, making them more appealing and accessible to the local populace. In contrast, the findings highlight a dilemma between cost-effectiveness and sustainable entrepreneurship. Transitioning to sustainable export products and production processes is demanded by foreign buyers and acknowledged as essential for environmental stewardship, which often requires capital-intensive makeovers. This investment inevitably raises the overall cost of the export product, making it less competitive in the global market. Interestingly, the study notes a disparity between international demand for sustainable products and the willingness of buyers to pay a premium for them. Despite the growing global preference for eco-friendly options, the findings suggest that the additional costs associated with sustainable entrepreneurship are not adequately reflected in the purchasing behavior of international buyers. The abundance of natural resources coupled with a minimal occurrence of natural catastrophes renders exporters less environmentally sensitive. The absence of robust policy support for environmental preservation exacerbates this inclination. Consequently, exporters exhibit a diminished motivation to incorporate environmental sustainability into their business decisions. Instead, attention is redirected towards factors such as the local population's minimum standards of living, prevalent social issues, governmental corruption and inefficiency, and rural poverty. These elements impel exporters to prioritize social well-being when making business decisions. Notably, the emphasis on social impact, rather than environmental impact, appears to be a generational trend, perpetuating a focus on societal aspects in the realm of business. In conclusion, the manifestation of entrepreneurial behavior within developing nations is notably contingent upon contextual nuances. This investigation contributes to a deeper understanding of the dynamics shaping the prevalence of SE over sustainable entrepreneurship among Sri Lankan exporters in the SME sector. The insights generated have implications for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and academics seeking to navigate the delicate balance between socio-cultural values, economic feasibility, and environmental sustainability in the pursuit of responsible business practices within the export sector.

Keywords: small and medium enterprises, social entrepreneurship, Sri Lanka, sustainable entrepreneurship

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Authors: Akila Murali, Prithika Manivel

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Disasters are defined as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, which involves widespread human, material, economic or environmental impacts. The number of people suffering food crisis as a result of natural disasters has tripled in the last thirty years. The economic losses due to natural disasters have shown an increase with a factor of eight over the past four decades, caused by the increased vulnerability of the global society, and also due to an increase in the number of weather-related disasters. Efficient disaster detection and alerting systems could reduce the loss of life and properties. In the event of a disaster, another important issue is a good search and rescue system with high levels of precision, timeliness and safety for both the victims and the rescuers. Wireless Sensor Networks technology has the capability of quick capturing, processing, and transmission of critical data in real-time with high resolution. This paper studies the capacity of sensors and a Wireless Sensor Network to collect, collate and analyze valuable and worthwhile data, in an ordered manner to help with disaster management.

Keywords: alerting systems, disaster detection, Ad Hoc network, WSN technology

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Authors: Germans Natuhwera, Peter Ellis, Acuda Wilson, Anne Merriman, Martha Rabwoni

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Objective: The aim of the study was to diagnose the socio-economic burden and impact of a diagnosis of cervical cancer (CC) in rural women in the context of low-resourced country Uganda, using a phenomenological enquiry. Methods: This was a multi-site phenomenological inquiry, conducted at three hospice settings; Mobile Hospice Mbarara in southwestern, Little Hospice Hoima in Western, and Hospice Africa Uganda Kampala in central Uganda. A purposive sample of women with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of CC was recruited. Data was collected using open-ended audio-recorded interviews conducted in the native languages of participants. Interviews were transcribed verbatim in English, and Braun and Clarke’s (2019) framework of thematic analysis was used. Results: 13 women with a mean age of 49.2 and age range 29-71 participated in the study. All participants were of low socioeconomic status. The majority (84.6%) had advanced disease at diagnosis. A fuller reading of transcripts produced four major themes clustered under; (1) socioeconomic characteristics of women, (2) impact of CC on women’s relationships, (3) disrupted and impaired activities of daily living (ADLs), and (4) economic disruptions. Conclusions: A diagnosis of CC introduces significant socio-economic disruptions in a woman’s and her family’s life. CC causes disability, impairs the woman and her family’s productivity hence exacerbating levels of poverty in the home. High and expensive out-of-pocket expenditure on treatment, investigations, and transport costs further compound the socio-economic burden. Decentralizing cancer care services to regional centers, scaling up screening services, subsidizing costs of cancer care services, or making cervical cancer care treatment free of charge, strengthening monitoring mechanisms in public facilities to curb the vice of healthcare workers soliciting bribes from patients, increased mass awareness campaigns about cancer, training more healthcare professionals in cancer investigation and management, and palliative care, and introducing an introductory course on gynecologic cancers into all health training institutions are recommended.

Keywords: activities of daily living, cervical cancer, out-of-pocket, expenditure, phenomenology, socioeconomic

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