Search results for: regional climate model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19732

Search results for: regional climate model

16642 The Analysis of Changes in Urban Hierarchy of Isfahan Province in the Fifty-Year Period (1956-2006)

Authors: Hamidreza Joudaki, Yousefali Ziari

Abstract:

The appearance of city and urbanism is one of the important processes which have affected social communities. Being industrialized urbanism developed along with each other in the history. In addition, they have had simple relationship for more than six thousand years, that is, from the appearance of the first cities. In 18th century by coming out of industrial capitalism, progressive development took place in urbanism in the world. In Iran, the city of each region made its decision by itself and the capital of region (downtown) was the only central part and also the regional city without any hierarchy, controlled its realm. However, this method of ruling during these three decays, because of changing in political, social and economic issues that have caused changes in rural and urban relationship. Moreover, it has changed the variety of performance of cities and systematic urban network in Iran. Today, urban system has very vast imbalanced apace and performance. In Isfahan, the trend of urbanism is like the other part of Iran and systematic urban hierarchy is not suitable and normal. This article is a quantitative and analytical. The statistical communities are Isfahan Province cities and the changes in urban network and its hierarchy during the period of fifty years (1956 -2006) has been surveyed. In addition, those data have been analyzed by model of Rank and size and Entropy index. In this article Iran cities and also the factor of entropy of primate city and urban hierarchy of Isfahan Province have been introduced. Urban residents of this Province have been reached from 55 percent to 83% (2006). As we see the analytical data reflects that there is mismatching and imbalance between cities. Because the entropy index was.91 in 1956.And it decreased to.63 in 2006. Isfahan city is the primate city in the whole of these periods. Moreover, the second and the third cities have population gap with regard to the other cities and finally, they do not follow the system of rank-size.

Keywords: urban network, urban hierarchy, primate city, Isfahan province, urbanism, first cities

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16641 Exploring the Activity Fabric of an Intelligent Environment with Hierarchical Hidden Markov Theory

Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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16640 Leverage Effect for Volatility with Generalized Laplace Error

Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

Abstract:

We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

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16639 Analysis and Optimized Design of a Packaged Liquid Chiller

Authors: Saeed Farivar, Mohsen Kahrom

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to develop a physical simulation model for the purpose of studying the effect of various design parameters on the performance of packaged-liquid chillers. This paper presents a steady-state model for predicting the performance of package-Liquid chiller over a wide range of operation condition. The model inputs are inlet conditions; geometry and output of model include system performance variable such as power consumption, coefficient of performance (COP) and states of refrigerant through the refrigeration cycle. A computer model that simulates the steady-state cyclic performance of a vapor compression chiller is developed for the purpose of performing detailed physical design analysis of actual industrial chillers. The model can be used for optimizing design and for detailed energy efficiency analysis of packaged liquid chillers. The simulation model takes into account presence of all chiller components such as compressor, shell-and-tube condenser and evaporator heat exchangers, thermostatic expansion valve and connection pipes and tubing’s by thermo-hydraulic modeling of heat transfer, fluids flow and thermodynamics processes in each one of the mentioned components. To verify the validity of the developed model, a 7.5 USRT packaged-liquid chiller is used and a laboratory test stand for bringing the chiller to its standard steady-state performance condition is build. Experimental results obtained from testing the chiller in various load and temperature conditions is shown to be in good agreement with those obtained from simulating the performance of the chiller using the computer prediction model. An entropy-minimization-based optimization analysis is performed based on the developed analytical performance model of the chiller. The variation of design parameters in construction of shell-and-tube condenser and evaporator heat exchangers are studied using the developed performance and optimization analysis and simulation model and a best-match condition between the physical design and construction of chiller heat exchangers and its compressor is found to exist. It is expected that manufacturers of chillers and research organizations interested in developing energy-efficient design and analysis of compression chillers can take advantage of the presented study and its results.

Keywords: optimization, packaged liquid chiller, performance, simulation

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16638 Replicating Brain’s Resting State Functional Connectivity Network Using a Multi-Factor Hub-Based Model

Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

Abstract:

The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity

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16637 Multiscale Modelization of Multilayered Bi-Dimensional Soils

Authors: I. Hosni, L. Bennaceur Farah, N. Saber, R Bennaceur

Abstract:

Soil moisture content is a key variable in many environmental sciences. Even though it represents a small proportion of the liquid freshwater on Earth, it modulates interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather. Accurate modeling of the above processes depends on the ability to provide a proper spatial characterization of soil moisture. The measurement of soil moisture content allows assessment of soil water resources in the field of hydrology and agronomy. The second parameter in interaction with the radar signal is the geometric structure of the soil. Most traditional electromagnetic models consider natural surfaces as single scale zero mean stationary Gaussian random processes. Roughness behavior is characterized by statistical parameters like the Root Mean Square (RMS) height and the correlation length. Then, the main problem is that the agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical values is usually poor due to the large variability of the correlation function, and as a consequence, backscattering models have often failed to predict correctly backscattering. In this study, surfaces are considered as band-limited fractal random processes corresponding to a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian process each one having a spatial scale. Multiscale roughness is characterized by two parameters, the first one is proportional to the RMS height, and the other one is related to the fractal dimension. Soil moisture is related to the complex dielectric constant. This multiscale description has been adapted to two-dimensional profiles using the bi-dimensional wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe more correctly natural surfaces. We characterize the soil surfaces and sub-surfaces by a three layers geo-electrical model. The upper layer is described by its dielectric constant, thickness, a multiscale bi-dimensional surface roughness model by using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm, and volume scattering parameters. The lower layer is divided into three fictive layers separated by an assumed plane interface. These three layers were modeled by an effective medium characterized by an apparent effective dielectric constant taking into account the presence of air pockets in the soil. We have adopted the 2D multiscale three layers small perturbations model including, firstly air pockets in the soil sub-structure, and then a vegetable canopy in the soil surface structure, that is to simulate the radar backscattering. A sensitivity analysis of backscattering coefficient dependence on multiscale roughness and new soil moisture has been performed. Later, we proposed to change the dielectric constant of the multilayer medium because it takes into account the different moisture values of each layer in the soil. A sensitivity analysis of the backscattering coefficient, including the air pockets in the volume structure with respect to the multiscale roughness parameters and the apparent dielectric constant, was carried out. Finally, we proposed to study the behavior of the backscattering coefficient of the radar on a soil having a vegetable layer in its surface structure.

Keywords: multiscale, bidimensional, wavelets, backscattering, multilayer, SPM, air pockets

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16636 From the Sharing Economy to Social Manufacturing: Analyzing Collaborative Service Networks in the Manufacturing Domain

Authors: Babak Mohajeri

Abstract:

In recent years, the conventional business model of ownership has been changed towards accessibility in a variety of markets. Two trends can be observed in the evolution of this rental-like business model. Firstly, the technological development that enables the emergence of new business models. These new business models increasingly become agile and flexible. For example Spotify, an online music stream company provides consumers access to over millions of music tracks, conveniently through the smartphone, tablet or computer. Similarly, Car2Go, the car sharing company accesses its members with flexible and nearby sharing cars. The second trend is the increasing communication and connections via social networks. This trend enables a shift to peer-to-peer accessibility based business models. Conventionally, companies provide access for their customers to own companies products or services. In peer-to-peer model, nonetheless, companies facilitate access and connection across their customers to use other customers owned property or skills, competencies or services .The is so-called the sharing economy business model. The aim of this study is to investigate into a new and emerging type of the sharing economy model in which role of customers and service providers may dramatically change. This new model is called Collaborative Service Networks. We propose a mechanism for Collaborative Service Networks business model. Uber and Airbnb, two successful growing companies, have been selected for our case studies and their business models are analyzed. Finally, we study the emergence of the collaborative service networks in the manufacturing domain. Our finding results to a new manufacturing paradigm called social manufacturing.

Keywords: sharing economy, collaborative service networks, social manufacturing, manufacturing development

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16635 Volatility Model with Markov Regime Switching to Forecast Baht/USD

Authors: Nop Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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16634 Implementation of Free-Field Boundary Condition for 2D Site Response Analysis in OpenSees

Authors: M. Eskandarighadi, C. R. McGann

Abstract:

It is observed from past experiences of earthquakes that local site conditions can significantly affect the strong ground motion characteristics experience at the site. One-dimensional seismic site response analysis is the most common approach for investigating site response. This approach assumes that soil is homogeneous and infinitely extended in the horizontal direction. Therefore, tying side boundaries together is one way to model this behavior, as the wave passage is assumed to be only vertical. However, 1D analysis cannot capture the 2D nature of wave propagation, soil heterogeneity, and 2D soil profile with features such as inclined layer boundaries. In contrast, 2D seismic site response modeling can consider all of the mentioned factors to better understand local site effects on strong ground motions. 2D wave propagation and considering that the soil profile on the two sides of the model may not be identical clarifies the importance of a boundary condition on each side that can minimize the unwanted reflections from the edges of the model and input appropriate loading conditions. Ideally, the model size should be sufficiently large to minimize the wave reflection, however, due to computational limitations, increasing the model size is impractical in some cases. Another approach is to employ free-field boundary conditions that take into account the free-field motion that would exist far from the model domain and apply this to the sides of the model. This research focuses on implementing free-field boundary conditions in OpenSees for 2D site response analysisComparisons are made between 1D models and 2D models with various boundary conditions, and details and limitations of the developed free-field boundary modeling approach are discussed.

Keywords: boundary condition, free-field, opensees, site response analysis, wave propagation

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16633 Cuckoo Search Optimization for Black Scholes Option Pricing

Authors: Manas Shah

Abstract:

Black Scholes option pricing model is one of the most important concepts in modern world of computational finance. However, its practical use can be challenging as one of the input parameters must be estimated; implied volatility of the underlying security. The more precisely these values are estimated, the more accurate their corresponding estimates of theoretical option prices would be. Here, we present a novel model based on Cuckoo Search Optimization (CS) which finds more precise estimates of implied volatility than Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA).

Keywords: black scholes model, cuckoo search optimization, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm

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16632 Solar Energy Applications in Seawater Distillation

Authors: Yousef Abdulaziz Almolhem

Abstract:

Geographically, the most Arabic countries locate in areas confined to arid or semiarid regions. For this reason, most of our countries have adopted the seawater desalination as a strategy to overcome this problem. For example, the water supply of AUE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia is almost 100% from the seawater desalination plants. Many areas in Saudia Arabia and other countries in the world suffer from lack of fresh water which hinders the development of these areas, despite the availability of saline water and high solar radiation intensity. Furthermore, most developing countries do not have sufficient meteorological data to evaluate if the solar radiation is enough to meet the solar desalination. A mathematical model was developed to simulate and predict the thermal behavior of the solar still which used direct solar energy for distillation of seawater. Measurement data were measured in the Environment and Natural Resources Department, Faculty of Agricultural and Food sciences, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia, in order to evaluate the present model. The simulation results obtained from this model were compared with the measured data. The main results of this research showed that there are slight differences between the measured and predicted values of the elements studied, which is resultant from the change of some factors considered constants in the model such as the sky clearance, wind velocity and the salt concentration in the water in the basin of the solar still. It can be concluded that the present model can be used to estimate the average total solar radiation and the thermal behavior of the solar still in any area with consideration to the geographical location.

Keywords: mathematical model, sea water, distillation, solar radiation

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16631 Lineup Optimization Model of Basketball Players Based on the Prediction of Recursive Neural Networks

Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: recurrent neural network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model

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16630 Elasto-Plastic Behavior of Rock during Temperature Drop

Authors: N. Reppas, Y. L. Gui, B. Wetenhall, C. T. Davie, J. Ma

Abstract:

A theoretical constitutive model describing the stress-strain behavior of rock subjected to different confining pressures is presented. A bounding surface plastic model with hardening effects is proposed which includes the effect of temperature drop. The bounding surface is based on a mapping rule and the temperature effect on rock is controlled by Poisson’s ratio. Validation of the results against available experimental data is also presented. The relation of deviatoric stress and axial strain is illustrated at different temperatures to analyze the effect of temperature decrease in terms of stiffness of the material.

Keywords: bounding surface, cooling of rock, plasticity model, rock deformation, elasto-plastic behavior

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16629 Application of Artificial Neural Network in Initiating Cleaning Of Photovoltaic Solar Panels

Authors: Mohamed Mokhtar, Mostafa F. Shaaban

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Among the challenges facing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), dust accumulation on solar panels is considered the most severe problem that faces the growth of solar power plants. The accumulation of dust on the solar panels significantly degrades output from these panels. Hence, solar PV panels have to be cleaned manually or using costly automated cleaning methods. This paper focuses on initiating cleaning actions when required to reduce maintenance costs. The cleaning actions are triggered only when the dust level exceeds a threshold value. The amount of dust accumulated on the PV panels is estimated using an artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments are conducted to collect the required data, which are used in the training of the ANN model. Then, this ANN model will be fed by the output power from solar panels, ambient temperature, and solar irradiance, and thus, it will be able to estimate the amount of dust accumulated on solar panels at these conditions. The model was tested on different case studies to confirm the accuracy of the developed model.

Keywords: machine learning, dust, PV panels, renewable energy

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16628 A Bayesian Multivariate Microeconometric Model for Estimation of Price Elasticity of Demand

Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

Abstract:

Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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16627 A Geographical Spatial Analysis on the Benefits of Using Wind Energy in Kuwait

Authors: Obaid AlOtaibi, Salman Hussain

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Wind energy is associated with many geographical factors including wind speed, climate change, surface topography, environmental impacts, and several economic factors, most notably the advancement of wind technology and energy prices. It is the fastest-growing and least economically expensive method for generating electricity. Wind energy generation is directly related to the characteristics of spatial wind. Therefore, the feasibility study for the wind energy conversion system is based on the value of the energy obtained relative to the initial investment and the cost of operation and maintenance. In Kuwait, wind energy is an appropriate choice as a source of energy generation. It can be used in groundwater extraction in agricultural areas such as Al-Abdali in the north and Al-Wafra in the south, or in fresh and brackish groundwater fields or remote and isolated locations such as border areas and projects away from conventional power electricity services, to take advantage of alternative energy, reduce pollutants, and reduce energy production costs. The study covers the State of Kuwait with an exception of metropolitan area. Climatic data were attained through the readings of eight distributed monitoring stations affiliated with Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR). The data were used to assess the daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual available wind energy accessible for utilization. The researchers applied the Suitability Model to analyze the study by using the ArcGIS program. It is a model of spatial analysis that compares more than one location based on grading weights to choose the most suitable one. The study criteria are: the average annual wind speed, land use, topography of land, distance from the main road networks, urban areas. According to the previous criteria, the four proposed locations to establish wind farm projects are selected based on the weights of the degree of suitability (excellent, good, average, and poor). The percentage of areas that represents the most suitable locations with an excellent rank (4) is 8% of Kuwait’s area. It is relatively distributed as follows: Al-Shqaya, Al-Dabdeba, Al-Salmi (5.22%), Al-Abdali (1.22%), Umm al-Hayman (0.70%), North Wafra and Al-Shaqeeq (0.86%). The study recommends to decision-makers to consider the proposed location (No.1), (Al-Shqaya, Al-Dabdaba, and Al-Salmi) as the most suitable location for future development of wind farms in Kuwait, this location is economically feasible.

Keywords: Kuwait, renewable energy, spatial analysis, wind energy

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16626 Mathematical Model for Defection between Two Political Parties

Authors: Abdullahi Mohammed Auwal

Abstract:

Formation and change or decamping from one political party to another have now become a common trend in Nigeria. Many of the parties’ members who could not secure positions and or win elections in their parties or are not very much satisfied with the trends occurring in the party’s internal democratic principles and mechanisms, change their respective parties. This paper developed/presented and analyzed the used of non linear mathematical model for defections between two political parties using epidemiological approach. The whole population was assumed to be a constant and homogeneously mixed. Equilibria have been analytically obtained and their local and global stability discussed. Conditions for the co-existence of both the political parties have been determined, in the study of defections between People Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive Congress (APC) in Nigeria using numerical simulations to support the analytical results.

Keywords: model, political parties, deffection, stability, equilibrium, epidemiology

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16625 Analysis of Brain Signals Using Neural Networks Optimized by Co-Evolution Algorithms

Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zourikalatehsamad,

Abstract:

Up to 40 years ago, after recognition of epilepsy, it was generally believed that these attacks occurred randomly and suddenly. However, thanks to the advance of mathematics and engineering, such attacks can be predicted within a few minutes or hours. In this way, various algorithms for long-term prediction of the time and frequency of the first attack are presented. In this paper, by considering the nonlinear nature of brain signals and dynamic recorded brain signals, ANFIS model is presented to predict the brain signals, since according to physiologic structure of the onset of attacks, more complex neural structures can better model the signal during attacks. Contribution of this work is the co-evolution algorithm for optimization of ANFIS network parameters. Our objective is to predict brain signals based on time series obtained from brain signals of the people suffering from epilepsy using ANFIS. Results reveal that compared to other methods, this method has less sensitivity to uncertainties such as presence of noise and interruption in recorded signals of the brain as well as more accuracy. Long-term prediction capacity of the model illustrates the usage of planted systems for warning medication and preventing brain signals.

Keywords: co-evolution algorithms, brain signals, time series, neural networks, ANFIS model, physiologic structure, time prediction, epilepsy suffering, illustrates model

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16624 Fuzzy Logic Based Fault Tolerant Model Predictive MLI Topology

Authors: Abhimanyu Kumar, Chirag Gupta

Abstract:

This work presents a comprehensive study on the employment of Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a three-phase voltage-source inverter to regulate the output voltage efficiently. The inverter is modeled via the Clarke Transformation, considering a scenario where the load is unknown. An LC filter model is developed, demonstrating its efficacy in Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) reduction. The system, when implemented with fault-tolerant multilevel inverter topologies, ensures reliable operation even under fault conditions, a requirement that is paramount with the increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. The research also integrates a Fuzzy Logic based fault tolerance system which identifies and manages faults, ensuring consistent inverter performance. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is substantiated through rigorous simulations and comparative results, shedding light on the voltage prediction efficiency and the robustness of the model even under fault conditions.

Keywords: total harmonic distortion, fuzzy logic, renewable energy sources, MLI

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16623 Calibration and Validation of ArcSWAT Model for Estimation of Surface Runoff and Sediment Yield from Dhangaon Watershed

Authors: M. P. Tripathi, Priti Tiwari

Abstract:

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a distributed parameter continuous time model and was tested on daily and fortnightly basis for a small agricultural watershed (Dhangaon) of Chhattisgarh state in India. The SWAT model recently interfaced with ArcGIS and called as ArcSWAT. The watershed and sub-watershed boundaries, drainage networks, slope and texture maps were generated in the environment of ArcGIS of ArcSWAT. Supervised classification method was used for land use/cover classification from satellite imageries of the years 2009 and 2012. Manning's roughness coefficient 'n' for overland flow and channel flow and Fraction of Field Capacity (FFC) were calibrated for monsoon season of the years 2009 and 2010. The model was validated on a daily basis for the years 2011 and 2012 by using the observed daily rainfall and temperature data. Calibration and validation results revealed that the model was predicting the daily surface runoff and sediment yield satisfactorily. Sensitivity analysis showed that the annual sediment yield was inversely proportional to the overland and channel 'n' values whereas; annual runoff and sediment yields were directly proportional to the FFC. The model was also tested (calibrated and validated) for the fortnightly runoff and sediment yield for the year 2009-10 and 2011-12, respectively. Simulated values of fortnightly runoff and sediment yield for the calibration and validation years compared well with their observed counterparts. The calibration and validation results revealed that the ArcSWAT model could be used for identification of critical sub-watershed and for developing management scenarios for the Dhangaon watershed. Further, the model should be tested for simulating the surface runoff and sediment yield using generated rainfall and temperature before applying it for developing the management scenario for the critical or priority sub-watersheds.

Keywords: watershed, hydrologic and water quality, ArcSWAT model, remote sensing, GIS, runoff and sediment yield

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16622 Experimental Evaluation of UDP in Wireless LAN

Authors: Omar Imhemed Alramli

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As Transmission Control Protocol (TCP), User Datagram Protocol (UDP) is transfer protocol in the transportation layer in Open Systems Interconnection model (OSI model) or in TCP/IP model of networks. The UDP aspects evaluation were not recognized by using the pcattcp tool on the windows operating system platform like TCP. The study has been carried out to find a tool which supports UDP aspects evolution. After the information collection about different tools, iperf tool was chosen and implemented on Cygwin tool which is installed on both Windows XP platform and also on Windows XP on virtual box machine on one computer only. Iperf is used to make experimental evaluation of UDP and to see what will happen during the sending the packets between the Host and Guest in wired and wireless networks. Many test scenarios have been done and the major UDP aspects such as jitter, packet losses, and throughput are evaluated.

Keywords: TCP, UDP, IPERF, wireless LAN

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16621 Create a Dynamic Model in Project Control and Management

Authors: Hamed Saremi, Shahla Saremi

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In this study, control and management of construction projects is evaluated through developing a dynamic model in which some means are used in order to evaluating planning assumptions and reviewing the effectiveness of some project control policies based on previous researches about time, cost, project schedule pressure management, source management, project control, adding elements and sub-systems from cost management such as estimating consumption budget from budget due to costs, budget shortage effects and etc. using sensitivity analysis, researcher has evaluated introduced model that during model simulation by VENSIM software and assuming optimistic times and adding information about doing job and changes rate and project is forecasted with 373 days (2 days sooner than forecasted) and final profit $ 1,960,670 (23% amount of contract) assuming 15% inflation rate in year and costs rate accordance with planned amounts and other input information and final profit.

Keywords: dynamic planning, cost, time, performance, project management

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16620 Proposal of a Model Supporting Decision-Making Based on Multi-Objective Optimization Analysis on Information Security Risk Treatment

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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16619 Design and Analysis of Flexible Slider Crank Mechanism

Authors: Thanh-Phong Dao, Shyh-Chour Huang

Abstract:

This study presents the optimal design and formulation of a kinematic model of a flexible slider crank mechanism. The objective of the proposed innovative design is to take extra advantage of the compliant mechanism and maximize the fatigue life by applying the Taguchi method. A formulated kinematic model is developed using a Pseudo-Rigid-Body Model (PRBM). By means of mathematic models, the kinematic behaviors of the flexible slider crank mechanism are captured using MATLAB software. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is used to show the stress distribution. The results show that the optimal shape of the flexible hinge includes a force of 8.5N, a width of 9mm and a thickness of 1.1mm. Analysis of variance shows that the thickness of the proposed hinge is the most significant parameter, with an F test of 15.5. Finally, a prototype is manufactured to prepare for testing the kinematic and dynamic behaviors.

Keywords: kinematic behavior, fatigue life, pseudo-rigid-body model, flexible slider crank mechanism

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16618 Sampled-Data Model Predictive Tracking Control for Mobile Robot

Authors: Wookyong Kwon, Sangmoon Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, a sampled-data model predictive tracking control method is presented for mobile robots which is modeled as constrained continuous-time linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. The presented sampled-data predictive controller is designed by linear matrix inequality approach. Based on the input delay approach, a controller design condition is derived by constructing a new Lyapunov function. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: model predictive control, sampled-data control, linear parameter varying systems, LPV

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16617 Spatial Heterogeneity of Urban Land Use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on DMSP/OLS Data

Authors: Liang Zhou, Qinke Sun

Abstract:

Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, using long-term nighttime lighting data from DMSP/OLS from 1992 to 2012, support vector machine classification (SVM) was used to quantitatively extract urban built-up areas of economic belts, and spatial analysis of expansion intensity index, standard deviation ellipse, etc. was introduced. The model conducts detailed and in-depth discussions on the strength, direction, and type of the expansion of the middle and lower reaches of the economic belt and the key node cities. The results show that: (1) From 1992 to 2012, the built-up areas of the major cities in the Yangtze River Valley showed a rapid expansion trend. The built-up area expanded by 60,392 km², and the average annual expansion rate was 31%, that is, from 9615 km² in 1992 to 70007 km² in 2012. The spatial gradient analysis of the watershed shows that the expansion of urban built-up areas in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin takes Shanghai as the leading force, and the 'bottom-up' model shows an expanding pattern of 'upstream-downstream-middle-range' declines. The average annual rate of expansion is 36% and 35%, respectively. 17% of which the midstream expansion rate is about 50% of the upstream and downstream. (2) The analysis of expansion intensity shows that the urban expansion intensity in the Yangtze River Basin has generally shown an upward trend, the downstream region has continued to rise, and the upper and middle reaches have experienced different amplitude fluctuations. To further analyze the strength of urban expansion at key nodes, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan in the upper and middle reaches maintain a high degree of consistency with the intensity of regional expansion. Node cities with Shanghai as the core downstream continue to maintain a high level of expansion. (3) The standard deviation ellipse analysis shows that the overall center of gravity of the Yangtze River basin city is located in Anqing City, Anhui Province, and it showed a phenomenon of reciprocating movement from 1992 to 2012. The nighttime standard deviation ellipse distribution range increased from 61.96 km² to 76.52 km². The growth of the major axis of the ellipse was significantly larger than that of the minor axis. It had obvious east-west axiality, in which the nighttime lights in the downstream area occupied in the entire luminosity scale urban system leading position.

Keywords: urban space, support vector machine, spatial characteristics, night lights, Yangtze River Economic Belt

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16616 Estimation of Maize Yield by Using a Process-Based Model and Remote Sensing Data in the Northeast China Plain

Authors: Jia Zhang, Fengmei Yao, Yanjing Tan

Abstract:

The accurate estimation of crop yield is of great importance for the food security. In this study, a process-based mechanism model was modified to estimate yield of C4 crop by modifying the carbon metabolic pathway in the photosynthesis sub-module of the RS-P-YEC (Remote-Sensing-Photosynthesis-Yield estimation for Crops) model. The yield was calculated by multiplying net primary productivity (NPP) and the harvest index (HI) derived from the ratio of grain to stalk yield. The modified RS-P-YEC model was used to simulate maize yield in the Northeast China Plain during the period 2002-2011. The statistical data of maize yield from study area was used to validate the simulated results at county-level. The results showed that the Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was 0.827 (P < 0.01) between the simulated yield and the statistical data, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 712 kg/ha with a relative error (RE) of 9.3%. From 2002-2011, the yield of maize planting zone in the Northeast China Plain was increasing with smaller coefficient of variation (CV). The spatial pattern of simulated maize yield was consistent with the actual distribution in the Northeast China Plain, with an increasing trend from the northeast to the southwest. Hence the results demonstrated that the modified process-based model coupled with remote sensing data was suitable for yield prediction of maize in the Northeast China Plain at the spatial scale.

Keywords: process-based model, C4 crop, maize yield, remote sensing, Northeast China Plain

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16615 Study on Constitutive Model of Particle Filling Material Considering Volume Expansion

Authors: Xu Jinsheng, Tong Xin, Zheng Jian, Zhou Changsheng

Abstract:

The NEPE (nitrate ester plasticized polyether) propellant is a kind of particle filling material with relatively high filling fraction. The experimental results show that the microcracks, microvoids and dewetting can cause the stress softening of the material. In this paper, a series of mechanical testing in inclusion with CCD technique were conducted to analyze the evolution of internal defects of propellant. The volume expansion function of the particle filling material was established by measuring of longitudinal and transverse strain with optical deformation measurement system. By analyzing the defects and internal damages of the material, a visco-hyperelastic constitutive model based on free energy theory was proposed incorporating damage function. The proposed constitutive model could accurately predict the mechanical properties of uniaxial tensile tests and tensile-relaxation tests.

Keywords: dewetting, constitutive model, uniaxial tensile tests, visco-hyperelastic, nonlinear

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16614 Integrated Evaluation of Green Design and Green Manufacturing Processes Using a Mathematical Model

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Shin-Han Lin

Abstract:

In this research, a mathematical model for integrated evaluation of green design and green manufacturing processes is presented. To design a product, there can be alternative options to design the detailed components to fulfill the same product requirement. In the design alternative cases, the components of the product can be designed with different materials and detailed specifications. If several design alternative cases are proposed, the different materials and specifications can affect the manufacturing processes. In this paper, a new concept for integrating green design and green manufacturing processes is presented. A green design can be determined based the manufacturing processes of the designed product by evaluating the green criteria including energy usage and environmental impact, in addition to the traditional criteria of manufacturing cost. With this concept, a mathematical model is developed to find the green design and the associated green manufacturing processes. In the mathematical model, the cost items include material cost, manufacturing cost, and green related cost. The green related cost items include energy cost and environmental cost. The objective is to find the decisions of green design and green manufacturing processes to achieve the minimized total cost. In practical applications, the decision-making can be made to select a good green design case and its green manufacturing processes. In this presentation, an example product is illustrated. It shows that the model is practical and useful for integrated evaluation of green design and green manufacturing processes.

Keywords: supply chain management, green supply chain, green design, green manufacturing, mathematical model

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16613 Analysis of Extreme Case of Urban Heat Island Effect and Correlation with Global Warming

Authors: Kartikey Gupta

Abstract:

Global warming and environmental degradation are at their peak today, with the years after 2000A.D. giving way to 15 hottest years in terms of average temperatures. In India, much of the standard temperature measuring equipment are located in ‘developed’ urban areas, hence showing us an incomplete picture in terms of the climate across many rural areas, which comprises most of the landmass. This study showcases data studied by the author since 3 years at Vatsalya’s Children’s village, in outskirts of Jaipur, Rajasthan, India; in the midst of semi-arid topography, where consistently huge temperature differences of up to 15.8 degrees Celsius from local Jaipur weather only 30 kilometers away, are stunning yet scary at the same time, encouraging analysis of where the natural climatic pattern is heading due to rapid unrestricted urbanization. Record-breaking data presented in this project enforces the need to discuss causes and recovery techniques. This research further explores how and to what extent we are causing phenomenal disturbances in the natural meteorological pattern by urban growth. Detailed data observations using a standardized ambient weather station at study site and comparing it with closest airport weather data, evaluating the patterns and differences, show striking differences in temperatures, wind patterns and even rainfall quantity, especially during high-pressure zone days. Winter-time lows dip to 8 degrees below freezing with heavy frost and ice, while only 30 kms away minimum figures barely touch single-digit temperatures. Human activity is having an unprecedented effect on climatic patterns in record-breaking trends, which is a warning of what may follow in the next 15-25 years for the next generation living in cities, and a serious exploration into possible solutions is a must.

Keywords: climate change, meteorology, urban heat island, urbanization

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