Search results for: high-performance cycle model application
21522 Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation Using MuDRain Model: Malaysia Experience
Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish
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Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model
Procedia PDF Downloads 51621521 Li-Ion Batteries vs. Synthetic Natural Gas: A Life Cycle Analysis Study on Sustainable Mobility
Authors: Guido Lorenzi, Massimo Santarelli, Carlos Augusto Santos Silva
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The growth of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources in the European electricity generation mix is promoting the research of technically feasible and cost-effective solutions to make use of the excess energy, produced when the demand is low. The increasing intermittent renewable capacity is becoming a challenge to face especially in Europe, where some countries have shares of wind and solar on the total electricity produced in 2015 higher than 20%, with Denmark around 40%. However, other consumption sectors (mainly transportation) are still considerably relying on fossil fuels, with a slow transition to other forms of energy. Among the opportunities for different mobility concepts, electric (EV) and biofuel-powered vehicles (BPV) are the options that currently appear more promising. The EVs are targeting mainly the light duty users because of their zero (Full electric) or reduced (Hybrid) local emissions, while the BPVs encourage the use of alternative resources with the same technologies (thermal engines) used so far. The batteries which are applied to EVs are based on ions of Lithium because of their overall good performance in energy density, safety, cost and temperature performance. Biofuels, instead, can be various and the major difference is in their physical state (liquid or gaseous). In this study gaseous biofuels are considered and, more specifically, Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) produced through a process of Power-to-Gas consisting in an electrochemical upgrade (with Solid Oxide Electrolyzers) of biogas with CO2 recycling. The latter process combines a first stage of electrolysis, where syngas is produced, and a second stage of methanation in which the product gas is turned into methane and then made available for consumption. A techno-economic comparison between the two alternatives is possible, but it does not capture all the different aspects involved in the two routes for the promotion of a more sustainable mobility. For this reason, a more comprehensive methodology, i.e. Life Cycle Assessment, is adopted to describe the environmental implications of using excess electricity (directly or indirectly) for new vehicle fleets. The functional unit of the study is 1 km and the two options are compared in terms of overall CO2 emissions, both considering Cradle to Gate and Cradle to Grave boundaries. Showing how production and disposal of materials affect the environmental performance of the analyzed routes is useful to broaden the perspective on the impacts that different technologies produce, in addition to what is emitted during the operational life. In particular, this applies to batteries for which the decommissioning phase has a larger impact on the environmental balance compared to electrolyzers. The lower (more than one order of magnitude) energy density of Li-ion batteries compared to SNG implies that for the same amount of energy used, more material resources are needed to obtain the same effect. The comparison is performed in an energy system that simulates the Western European one, in order to assess which of the two solutions is more suitable to lead the de-fossilization of the transport sector with the least resource depletion and the mildest consequences for the ecosystem.Keywords: electrical energy storage, electric vehicles, power-to-gas, life cycle assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 17821520 Isolation and Identification of Sarcocystis suihominis in a Slaughtered Domestic Pig (Sus scrofa) in Benue State, Nigeria
Authors: H. I. Obadiah, S. N. Wieser, E. A. Omudu, B. O. Atu, O. Byanet, L. Schnittger, M. Florin-Christensen
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Sarcocystis sp. are Apicomplexan protozoan parasites with a life cycle that involves a predator and a prey as final and intermediate hosts, respectively. In tissues of the intermediate hosts, the parasites produce sarcocysts that vary in size and morphology according to the species. When a suitable predator ingests sarcocyst-containing meat, the parasites are released in the intestine and undergo sexual reproduction producing infective sporocysts, which are excreted with the feces into the environment. The cycle is closed when a prey ingests sporocyst-contaminated water or pasture; the parasites gain access to the circulation, and eventually invade tissues and reproduce asexually yielding sarcocysts. Pig farming is a common practice in Nigeria as well as in many countries around the world. In addition to its importance as protein source, pork is also a source of several pathogens relevant to humans. In the case of Sarcocystis, three species have been described both in domestic and wild pigs, namely, S. miescheriana, S. porcifelis and S. suihominis. Humans can act both as final and aberrant intermediate hosts of S. suihominis, after ingesting undercooked sarcocyst-infested pork. Infections are usually asymptomatic but can be associated with inappetence, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, or with muscle pain, fever, eosinophilia and bronchospasm, in humans acting as final or intermediate hosts, respectively. Moreover, excretion of infective forms with human feces leads to further dissemination of the infection. In this study, macroscopic sarcocysts of white color, oval shape and a size range of approximately 3-5 mm were observed in the skeletal muscle of a slaughtered pig in an abattoir in Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria, destined to human consumption. Sarcocysts were excised and washed in distilled water, and genomic DNA was extracted using a commercial kit. The near-complete length of the 18S rRNA gene was analyzed after PCR amplification of two overlapping fragments, each of which were submitted to direct sequencing. In addition, the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase (cox-1) gene was PCR-amplified and directly sequenced. Two phylogenetic trees containing the obtained sequences along with available relevant 18S rRNA and cox-1 sequences were constructed by neighbor joining after alignment, using the corresponding sequences of Toxoplasma gondii as outgroup. The results showed in both cases that the analyzed sequences grouped with S. suihominis with high bootstrap value, confirming the identity of this macroscopic sarcocyst-forming parasite as S. suihominis. To the best of our knowledge, these results represent the first demonstration of this parasite in pigs of Nigeria and the largest sarcocysts described so far for S. suihominis. The close proximity between pigs and humans in pig farms, and the frequent poor sanitary conditions in human dwellings strongly suggest that the parasite undergoes the sexual stages of its life cycle in humans as final hosts. These findings provide an important reference for the examination and control of Sarcocystis species in pigs of Nigeria.Keywords: nigeria, pork, sarcocystis suihominis, zoonotic parasite
Procedia PDF Downloads 8821519 Economic Development Process: A Compartmental Analysis of a Model with Two Delays
Authors: Amadou Banda Ndione, Charles Awono Onana
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In this paper the compartmental approach is applied to build a macroeconomic model characterized by countries. We consider a total of N countries that are subdivided into three compartments according to their economic status: D(t) denotes the compartment of developing countries at time t, E(t) stands for the compartment of emerging countries at time t while A(t) represents advanced countries at time t. The model describes the process of economic development and includes the notion of openness through collaborations between countries. Two delays appear in this model to describe the average time necessary for collaborations between countries to become efficient for their development process. Our model represents the different stages of development. It further gives the conditions under which a country can change its economic status and demonstrates the short-term positive effect of openness on economic growth. In addition, we investigate bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examine the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical part and to support discussion.Keywords: compartmental systems, delayed dynamical system, economic development, fiscal policy, hopf bifurcation
Procedia PDF Downloads 13721518 Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Productivity and Nutrient Use Efficiency of Maize in the Semi-arid Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke
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Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 8621517 Numerical Analysis of Mandible Fracture Stabilization System
Authors: Piotr Wadolowski, Grzegorz Krzesinski, Piotr Gutowski
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The aim of the presented work is to recognize the impact of mini-plate application approach on the stress and displacement within the stabilization devices and surrounding bones. The mini-plate osteosynthesis technique is widely used by craniofacial surgeons as an improved replacement of wire connection approach. Many different types of metal plates and screws are used to the physical connection of fractured bones. Below investigation is based on a clinical observation of patient hospitalized with mini-plate stabilization system. Analysis was conducted on a solid mandible geometry, which was modeled basis on the computed tomography scan of the hospitalized patient. In order to achieve most realistic connected system behavior, the cortical and cancellous bone layers were assumed. The temporomandibular joint was simplified to the elastic element to allow physiological movement of loaded bone. The muscles of mastication system were reduced to three pairs, modeled as shell structures. Finite element grid was created by the ANSYS software, where hexahedral and tetrahedral variants of SOLID185 element were used. A set of nonlinear contact conditions were applied on connecting devices and bone common surfaces. Properties of particular contact pair depend on screw - mini-plate connection type and possible gaps between fractured bone around osteosynthesis region. Some of the investigated cases contain prestress introduced to the mini-plate during the application, what responds the initial bending of the connecting device to fit the retromolar fossa region. Assumed bone fracture occurs within the mandible angle zone. Due to the significant deformation of the connecting plate in some of the assembly cases the elastic-plastic model of titanium alloy was assumed. The bone tissues were covered by the orthotropic material. As a loading were used the gauge force of magnitude of 100N applied in three different locations. Conducted analysis shows significant impact of mini-plate application methodology on the stress distribution within the miniplate. Prestress effect introduces additional loading, which leads to locally exceed the titanium alloy yield limit. Stress in surrounding bone increases rapidly around the screws application region, exceeding assumed bone yield limit, what indicate the local bone destruction. Approach with the doubled mini-plate shows increased stress within the connector due to the too rigid connection, where the main path of loading leads through the mini-plates instead of plates and connected bones. Clinical observations confirm more frequent plate destruction of stiffer connections. Some of them could be an effect of decreased low cyclic fatigue capability caused by the overloading. The executed analysis prove that the mini-plate system provides sufficient support to mandible fracture treatment, however, many applicable solutions shifts the entire system to the allowable material limits. The results show that connector application with the initial loading needs to be carefully established due to the small material capability tolerances. Comparison to the clinical observations allows optimizing entire connection to prevent future incidents.Keywords: mandible fracture, mini-plate connection, numerical analysis, osteosynthesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 27421516 Pattern Recognition Based on Simulation of Chemical Senses (SCS)
Authors: Nermeen El Kashef, Yasser Fouad, Khaled Mahar
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No AI-complete system can model the human brain or behavior, without looking at the totality of the whole situation and incorporating a combination of senses. This paper proposes a Pattern Recognition model based on Simulation of Chemical Senses (SCS) for separation and classification of sign language. The model based on human taste controlling strategy. The main idea of the introduced model is motivated by the facts that the tongue cluster input substance into its basic tastes first, and then the brain recognizes its flavor. To implement this strategy, two level architecture is proposed (this is inspired from taste system). The separation-level of the architecture focuses on hand posture cluster, while the classification-level of the architecture to recognizes the sign language. The efficiency of proposed model is demonstrated experimentally by recognizing American Sign Language (ASL) data set. The recognition accuracy obtained for numbers of ASL is 92.9 percent.Keywords: artificial intelligence, biocybernetics, gustatory system, sign language recognition, taste sense
Procedia PDF Downloads 29421515 Parameter Identification Analysis in the Design of Rock Fill Dams
Authors: G. Shahzadi, A. Soulaimani
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This research work aims to identify the physical parameters of the constitutive soil model in the design of a rockfill dam by inverse analysis. The best parameters of the constitutive soil model, are those that minimize the objective function, defined as the difference between the measured and numerical results. The Finite Element code (Plaxis) has been utilized for numerical simulation. Polynomial and neural network-based response surfaces have been generated to analyze the relationship between soil parameters and displacements. The performance of surrogate models has been analyzed and compared by evaluating the root mean square error. A comparative study has been done based on objective functions and optimization techniques. Objective functions are categorized by considering measured data with and without uncertainty in instruments, defined by the least square method, which estimates the norm between the predicted displacements and the measured values. Hydro Quebec provided data sets for the measured values of the Romaine-2 dam. Stochastic optimization, an approach that can overcome local minima, and solve non-convex and non-differentiable problems with ease, is used to obtain an optimum value. Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Differential Evolution (DE) are compared for the minimization problem, although all these techniques take time to converge to an optimum value; however, PSO provided the better convergence and best soil parameters. Overall, parameter identification analysis could be effectively used for the rockfill dam application and has the potential to become a valuable tool for geotechnical engineers for assessing dam performance and dam safety.Keywords: Rockfill dam, parameter identification, stochastic analysis, regression, PLAXIS
Procedia PDF Downloads 14621514 Digital Twin of Real Electrical Distribution System with Real Time Recursive Load Flow Calculation and State Estimation
Authors: Anosh Arshad Sundhu, Francesco Giordano, Giacomo Della Croce, Maurizio Arnone
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Digital Twin (DT) is a technology that generates a virtual representation of a physical system or process, enabling real-time monitoring, analysis, and simulation. DT of an Electrical Distribution System (EDS) can perform online analysis by integrating the static and real-time data in order to show the current grid status and predictions about the future status to the Distribution System Operator (DSO), producers and consumers. DT technology for EDS also offers the opportunity to DSO to test hypothetical scenarios. This paper discusses the development of a DT of an EDS by Smart Grid Controller (SGC) application, which is developed using open-source libraries and languages. The developed application can be integrated with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) of any EDS for creating the DT. The paper shows the performance of developed tools inside the application, tested on real EDS for grid observability, Smart Recursive Load Flow (SRLF) calculation and state estimation of loads in MV feeders.Keywords: digital twin, distributed energy resources, remote terminal units, supervisory control and data acquisition system, smart recursive load flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 11021513 Application of Remote Sensing Technique on the Monitoring of Mine Eco-Environment
Authors: Haidong Li, Weishou Shen, Guoping Lv, Tao Wang
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Aiming to overcome the limitation of the application of traditional remote sensing (RS) technique in the mine eco-environmental monitoring, in this paper, we first classified the eco-environmental damages caused by mining activities and then introduced the principle, classification and characteristics of the Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technique. The potentiality of LiDAR technique in the mine eco-environmental monitoring was analyzed, particularly in extracting vertical structure parameters of vegetation, through comparing the feasibility and applicability of traditional RS method and LiDAR technique in monitoring different types of indicators. The application situation of LiDAR technique in extracting typical mine indicators, such as land destruction in mining areas, damage of ecological integrity and natural soil erosion. The result showed that the LiDAR technique has the ability to monitor most of the mine eco-environmental indicators, and exhibited higher accuracy comparing with traditional RS technique, specifically speaking, the applicability of LiDAR technique on each indicator depends on the accuracy requirement of mine eco-environmental monitoring. In the item of large mine, LiDAR three-dimensional point cloud data not only could be used as the complementary data source of optical RS, Airborne/Satellite LiDAR could also fulfill the demand of extracting vertical structure parameters of vegetation in large areas.Keywords: LiDAR, mine, ecological damage, monitoring, traditional remote sensing technique
Procedia PDF Downloads 39721512 A Hardware-in-the-loop Simulation for the Development of Advanced Control System Design for a Spinal Joint Wear Simulator
Authors: Kaushikk Iyer, Richard M Hall, David Keeling
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Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation is an advanced technique for developing and testing complex real-time control systems. This paper presents the benefits of HIL simulation and how it can be implemented and used effectively to develop, test, and validate advanced control algorithms used in a spinal joint Wear simulator for the Tribological testing of spinal disc prostheses. spinal wear simulator is technologically the most advanced machine currently employed For the in-vitro testing of newly developed spinal Discimplants. However, the existing control techniques, such as a simple position control Does not allow the simulator to test non-sinusoidal waveforms. Thus, there is a need for better and advanced control methods that can be developed and tested Rigorouslybut safely before deploying it into the real simulator. A benchtop HILsetupis was created for experimentation, controller verification, and validation purposes, allowing different control strategies to be tested rapidly in a safe environment. The HIL simulation aspect in this setup attempts to replicate similar spinal motion and loading conditions. The spinal joint wear simulator containsa four-Barlinkpowered by electromechanical actuators. LabVIEW software is used to design a kinematic model of the spinal wear Simulator to Validatehow each link contributes towards the final motion of the implant under test. As a result, the implant articulates with an angular motion specified in the international standards, ISO-18192-1, that define fixed, simplified, and sinusoid motion and load profiles for wear testing of cervical disc implants. Using a PID controller, a velocity-based position control algorithm was developed to interface with the benchtop setup that performs HIL simulation. In addition to PID, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) was also developed that acts as a supervisory controller. FLC provides intelligence to the PID controller by By automatically tuning the controller for profiles that vary in amplitude, shape, and frequency. This combination of the fuzzy-PID controller is novel to the wear testing application for spinal simulators and demonstrated superior performance against PIDwhen tested for a spectrum of frequency. Kaushikk Iyer is a Ph.D. Student at the University of Leeds and an employee at Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom, (e-mail: [email protected], phone: +44 740 541 5502). Richard M Hall is with the University of Leeds, the United Kingdom as a professor in the Mechanical Engineering Department (e-mail: [email protected]). David Keeling is the managing director of Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom (e-mail: [email protected]). Results obtained are successfully validated against the load and motion tolerances specified by the ISO18192-1 standard and fall within limits, that is, ±0.5° at the maxima and minima of the motion and ±2 % of the complete cycle for phasing. The simulation results prove the efficacy of the test setup using HIL simulation to verify and validate the accuracy and robustness of the prospective controller before its deployment into the spinal wear simulator. This method of testing controllers enables a wide range of possibilities to test advanced control algorithms that can potentially test even profiles of patients performing various dailyliving activities.Keywords: Fuzzy-PID controller, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), real-time simulation, spinal wear simulator
Procedia PDF Downloads 17121511 Estimation of the Temperatures in an Asynchronous Machine Using Extended Kalman Filter
Authors: Yi Huang, Clemens Guehmann
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In order to monitor the thermal behavior of an asynchronous machine with squirrel cage rotor, a 9th-order extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm is implemented to estimate the temperatures of the stator windings, the rotor cage and the stator core. The state-space equations of EKF are established based on the electrical, mechanical and the simplified thermal models of an asynchronous machine. The asynchronous machine with simplified thermal model in Dymola is compiled as DymolaBlock, a physical model in MATLAB/Simulink. The coolant air temperature, three-phase voltages and currents are exported from the physical model and are processed by EKF estimator as inputs. Compared to the temperatures exported from the physical model of the machine, three parts of temperatures can be estimated quite accurately by the EKF estimator. The online EKF estimator is independent from the machine control algorithm and can work under any speed and load condition if the stator current is nonzero current system.Keywords: asynchronous machine, extended Kalman filter, resistance, simulation, temperature estimation, thermal model
Procedia PDF Downloads 28521510 Behavior of the RC Slab Subjected to Impact Loading According to the DIF
Authors: Yong Jae Yu, Jae-Yeol Cho
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In the design of structural concrete for impact loading, design or model codes often employ a dynamic increase factor (DIF) to impose dynamic effect on static response. Dynamic increase factors that are obtained from laboratory material test results and that are commonly given as a function of strain rate only are quite different from each other depending on the design concept of design codes like ACI 349M-06, fib Model Code 2010 and ACI 370R-14. Because the dynamic increase factors currently adopted in the codes are too simple and limited to consider a variety of strength of materials, their application in practical design is questionable. In this study, the dynamic increase factors used in the three codes were validated through the finite element analysis of reinforced concrete slab elements which were tested and reported by other researcher. The test was intended to simulate a wall element of the containment building in nuclear power plants that is assumed to be subject to impact scenario that the Pentagon experienced on September 11, 2001. The finite element analysis was performed using the ABAQAUS 6.10 and the plasticity models were employed for the concrete, reinforcement. The dynamic increase factors given in the three codes were applied to the stress-strain curves of the materials. To estimate the dynamic increase factors, strain rate was adopted as a parameter. Comparison of the test and analysis was done with regard to perforation depth, maximum deflection, and surface crack area of the slab. Consequently, it was found that DIF has so great an effect on the behavior of the reinforced concrete structures that selection of DIF should be very careful. The result implies that DIF should be provided in design codes in more delicate format considering various influence factors.Keywords: impact, strain rate, DIF, slab elements
Procedia PDF Downloads 29421509 Application of Multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Analysis Based Hybrid-Approach for Predicting and Monitoring the Pattern of LULC Using Random Forest Classification in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan
Authors: Basit Aftab, Zhichao Wang, Feng Zhongke
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Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a critical environmental issue that has significant effects on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) across a three-decade period (1992–2022) in a district area. The goal is to support sustainable land management and urban planning by utilizing the combination of remote sensing, GIS data, and observations from Landsat satellites 5 and 8 to provide precise predictions of the trajectory of urban sprawl. In order to forecast the LULCC patterns, this study suggests a hybrid strategy that combines the Random Forest method with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Markov Chain analysis. To predict the dynamics of LULC change for the year 2035, a hybrid technique based on multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Model Analysis (MLP-MCA) was employed. The area of developed land has increased significantly, while the amount of bare land, vegetation, and forest cover have all decreased. This is because the principal land types have changed due to population growth and economic expansion. The study also discovered that between 1998 and 2023, the built-up area increased by 468 km² as a result of the replacement of natural resources. It is estimated that 25.04% of the study area's urbanization will be increased by 2035. The performance of the model was confirmed with an overall accuracy of 90% and a kappa coefficient of around 0.89. It is important to use advanced predictive models to guide sustainable urban development strategies. It provides valuable insights for policymakers, land managers, and researchers to support sustainable land use planning, conservation efforts, and climate change mitigation strategies.Keywords: land use land cover, Markov chain model, multi-layer perceptron, random forest, sustainable land, remote sensing.
Procedia PDF Downloads 3421508 Beyond Classic Program Evaluation and Review Technique: A Generalized Model for Subjective Distributions with Flexible Variance
Authors: Byung Cheol Kim
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The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1821507 Terrain Classification for Ground Robots Based on Acoustic Features
Authors: Bernd Kiefer, Abraham Gebru Tesfay, Dietrich Klakow
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The motivation of our work is to detect different terrain types traversed by a robot based on acoustic data from the robot-terrain interaction. Different acoustic features and classifiers were investigated, such as Mel-frequency cepstral coefficient and Gamma-tone frequency cepstral coefficient for the feature extraction, and Gaussian mixture model and Feed forward neural network for the classification. We analyze the system’s performance by comparing our proposed techniques with some other features surveyed from distinct related works. We achieve precision and recall values between 87% and 100% per class, and an average accuracy at 95.2%. We also study the effect of varying audio chunk size in the application phase of the models and find only a mild impact on performance.Keywords: acoustic features, autonomous robots, feature extraction, terrain classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 36921506 Large Eddy Simulation of Hydrogen Deflagration in Open Space and Vented Enclosure
Authors: T. Nozu, K. Hibi, T. Nishiie
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This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.Keywords: deflagration, large eddy simulation, turbulent combustion, vented enclosure
Procedia PDF Downloads 24421505 A Qualitative Study of Experienced Early Childhood Teachers Resolving Workplace Challenges with Character Strengths
Authors: Michael J. Haslip
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Character strength application improves performance and well-being in adults across industries, but the potential impact of character strength training among early childhood educators is mostly unknown. To explore how character strengths are applied by early childhood educators at work, a qualitative study was completed alongside professional development provided to a group of in-service teachers of children ages 0-5 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Study participants (n=17) were all female. The majority of participants were non-white, in full-time lead or assistant teacher roles, had at least ten years of experience and a bachelor’s degree. Teachers were attending professional development weekly for 2 hours over a 10-week period on the topic of social and emotional learning and child guidance. Related to this training were modules and sessions on identifying a teacher’s character strength profile using the Values in Action classification of 24 strengths (e.g., humility, perseverance) that have a scientific basis. Teachers were then asked to apply their character strengths to help resolve current workplace challenges. This study identifies which character strengths the teachers reported using most frequently and the nature of the workplace challenges being resolved in this context. The study also reports how difficult these challenges were to the teachers and their success rate at resolving workplace challenges using a character strength application plan. The study also documents how teachers’ own use of character strengths relates to their modeling of these same traits (e.g., kindness, teamwork) for children, especially when the nature of the workplace challenge directly involves the children, such as when addressing issues of classroom management and behavior. Data were collected on action plans (reflective templates) which teachers wrote to explain the work challenge they were facing, the character strengths they used to address the challenge, their plan for applying strengths to the challenge, and subsequent results. Content analysis and thematic analysis were used to investigate the research questions using approaches that included classifying, connecting, describing, and interpreting data reported by educators. Findings reveal that teachers most frequently use kindness, leadership, fairness, hope, and love to address a range of workplace challenges, ranging from low to high difficulty, involving children, coworkers, parents, and for self-management. Teachers reported a 71% success rate at fully or mostly resolving workplace challenges using the action plan method introduced during professional development. Teachers matched character strengths to challenges in different ways, with certain strengths being used mostly when the challenge involved children (love, forgiveness), others mostly with adults (bravery, teamwork), and others universally (leadership, kindness). Furthermore, teacher’s application of character strengths at work involved directly modeling character for children in 31% of reported cases. The application of character strengths among early childhood educators may play a significant role in improving teacher well-being, reducing job stress, and improving efforts to model character for young children.Keywords: character strengths, positive psychology, professional development, social-emotional learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 10521504 Simulation of Kinetic Friction in L-Bending of Sheet Metals
Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert, Timotius Pasang
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This paper aims at experimental and numerical investigation of springback behavior of sheet metals during L-bending process with emphasis on Stribeck-type friction modeling. The coefficient of friction in Stribeck curve depends on sliding velocity and contact pressure. The springback behavior of mild steel and aluminum alloy 6022-T4 sheets was studied experimentally and using numerical simulations with ABAQUS software with two types of friction model: Coulomb friction and Stribeck friction. The influence of forming speed on springback behavior was studied experimentally and numerically. The results showed that Stribeck-type friction model has better results in predicting springback in sheet metal forming. The FE prediction error for mild steel and 6022-T4 AA is 23.8%, 25.5% respectively, using Coulomb friction model and 11%, 13% respectively, using Stribeck friction model. These results show that Stribeck model is suitable for simulation of sheet metal forming especially at higher forming speed.Keywords: friction, L-bending, springback, Stribeck curves
Procedia PDF Downloads 49121503 Forecasting Equity Premium Out-of-Sample with Sophisticated Regression Training Techniques
Authors: Jonathan Iworiso
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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains
Procedia PDF Downloads 10721502 Modeling of Large Elasto-Plastic Deformations by the Coupled FE-EFGM
Authors: Azher Jameel, Ghulam Ashraf Harmain
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In the recent years, the enriched techniques like the extended finite element method, the element free Galerkin method, and the Coupled finite element-element free Galerkin method have found wide application in modeling different types of discontinuities produced by cracks, contact surfaces, and bi-material interfaces. The extended finite element method faces severe mesh distortion issues while modeling large deformation problems. The element free Galerkin method does not have mesh distortion issues, but it is computationally more demanding than the finite element method. The coupled FE-EFGM proves to be an efficient numerical tool for modeling large deformation problems as it exploits the advantages of both FEM and EFGM. The present paper employs the coupled FE-EFGM to model large elastoplastic deformations in bi-material engineering components. The large deformation occurring in the domain has been modeled by using the total Lagrangian approach. The non-linear elastoplastic behavior of the material has been represented by the Ramberg-Osgood model. The elastic predictor-plastic corrector algorithms are used for the evaluation stresses during large deformation. Finally, several numerical problems are solved by the coupled FE-EFGM to illustrate its applicability, efficiency and accuracy in modeling large elastoplastic deformations in bi-material samples. The results obtained by the proposed technique are compared with the results obtained by XFEM and EFGM. A remarkable agreement was observed between the results obtained by the three techniques.Keywords: XFEM, EFGM, coupled FE-EFGM, level sets, large deformation
Procedia PDF Downloads 44721501 Finding Data Envelopment Analysis Target Using the Multiple Objective Linear Programming Structure in Full Fuzzy Case
Authors: Raziyeh Shamsi
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In this paper, we present a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) problem in full fuzzy case and find Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) targets. In the presented model, we are seeking the least inputs and the most outputs in the production possibility set (PPS) with the variable return to scale (VRS) assumption, so that the efficiency projection is obtained for all decision making units (DMUs). Then, we provide an algorithm for finding DEA targets interactively in the full fuzzy case, which solves the full fuzzy problem without defuzzification. Owing to the use of interactive methods, the targets obtained by our algorithm are more applicable, more realistic, and they are according to the wish of the decision maker. Finally, an application of the algorithm in 21 educational institutions is provided.Keywords: DEA, MOLP, full fuzzy, target
Procedia PDF Downloads 30221500 A Case Study on Smart Energy City of the UK: Based on Business Model Innovation
Authors: Minzheong Song
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The purpose of this paper is to see a case of smart energy evolution of the UK along with government projects and smart city project like 'Smart London Plan (SLP)' in 2013 with the logic of business model innovation (BMI). For this, it discusses the theoretical logic and formulates a research framework of evolving smart energy from silo to integrated system. The starting point is the silo system with no connection and in second stage, the private investment in smart meters, smart grids implementation, energy and water nexus, adaptive smart grid systems, and building marketplaces with platform leadership. As results, the UK’s smart energy sector has evolved from smart meter device installation through smart grid to new business models such as water-energy nexus and microgrid service within the smart energy city system.Keywords: smart city, smart energy, business model, business model innovation (BMI)
Procedia PDF Downloads 16221499 An Application of E-Learning Technology for Students with Deafness and Hearing Impairment
Authors: Eyup Bayram Guzel
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There have been growing awareness that technology offers unique and promising advantages by offering up-to-data educational materials in promoting teaching and learning materials, new strategies for building enhanced communication environment for people with disabilities and specifically for this study concentrated on the students with deafness and hearing impairments. Creating e-learning environment where teachers and students work in collaboration to develop better educational outcomes is the foremost reason of conducting this research. This study examined the perspectives of special education teachers’ regarding an application of e-learning software called Multimedia Builder on the students with deafness and hearing impairments. Initial and follow up interviews were conducted with 15 special education teachers around the scope of qualitative case study. Grounded approach has been used to analyse and interpret the data. The research results revealed that application of Multimedia Builder software were influential on reading, sign language, vocabulary improvements, computer and ICT usage developments and on audio-visual learning achievements for the advantages of students with deafness and hearing impairments. The implications of the study encouraged the ways of using e-learning tools and strategies to promote unique and comprehensive learning experiences for the targeted students and their teachers.Keywords: e-learning, special education, deafness and hearing impairment, computer-ICT usage.
Procedia PDF Downloads 43821498 Deep Foundations: Analysis of the Lateral Response of Closed Ended Steel Tubular Piles Embedded in Sandy Soil Using P-Y Curves
Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill
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Understanding the behaviour of the piles under the action of the independent lateral loads and the precise prediction of the capacity of piles subjected to different lateral loads are vital topics in foundation design and analysis. Moreover, the laterally loaded behaviour of deep foundations penetrated in cohesive and non-cohesive soils is basically analysed by the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation), in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and contacted soil is simulated by nonlinear p–y curves. The presence of many approaches to interpret the behaviour of soil-pile interaction has resulted in numerous outputs and indicates that no general approach has yet been adopted. The current study presents the result of numerical modelling of the behaviour of steel tubular piles (25.4mm) outside diameter with various embedment depth-to-diameter ratios (L/d) embedded in a sand calibrated chamber of known relative density. The study revealed that the shear strength parameters of the sand specimens and the (L/d) ratios are the most significant factor influencing the response of the pile and its capacity while taking into consideration the complex interaction between the pile and soil. Good agreement has been achieved when comparing the application of this modelling approach with experimental physical modelling carried out by another researcher.Keywords: deep foundations, slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), non-cohesive soil
Procedia PDF Downloads 29921497 The Emancipatory Methodological Approach to the Organizational Problems Management
Authors: Slavica P. Petrovic
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One of the key dimensions of management problems in organizations refers to the relations between stakeholders. The management problems that are characterized by conflict and coercion, in which participants do not agree on the ends and means, in which different groups, i.e., individuals, strive to – using the power they have – impose on others their favoured strategy and decisions represent the relevant research subject. Creatively managing the coercive problems in organizations, in which the sources of power can be identified, implies the emancipatory paradigm and the use of corresponding systems methodology. The main research aim is to critically reassess the theoretical foundations and methodological and methodical development of Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) – as a valid representative of the emancipatory paradigm – in order to determine the conditions, ways, and achievements of its application in managing the coercive problems in organizations. The basic hypothesis is that CSH, as the emancipatory methodology, given its own theoretical foundations and methodological-methodical development, can be employed in a scientifically based and practically useful manner in creative addressing the coercive problems. The scientific instrumentarium corresponding to this research aim is critical systems thinking with its three key commitments to: a) Critical awareness of the strengths and weaknesses of each research instrument (theory, methodology, method, technique, model) for structuring the problem situations in organizations, b) Improvement of managing the coercive problems in organizations, and c) Pluralism – respect the different perceptions and interpretations of problem situations, and enable the combined use of research instruments. The relevant research result is that CSH – considering its theoretical foundations, methodological and methodical development – enables to reveal the normative content of the proposed or existing designs of organizational systems. Accordingly, it can be concluded that through the use of critically heuristic categories and dialectical debate between those involved and those affected by the designs, but who are not included in designing organizational systems, CSH endeavours to – in the application – support the process of improving position of all stakeholders.Keywords: coercion and conflict in organizations, creative management, critical systems heuristics, the emancipatory systems methodology
Procedia PDF Downloads 44221496 A Cross-Cultural Investigation of Self-Compassion in Adolescents Across Gender
Authors: H. N. Cheung
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Self-compassion encourages one to accept oneself, reduce self-criticism and self-judgment, and see one’s shortcomings and setbacks in a balanced view. Adolescent self-compassion is a crucial protective factor against mental illness. It is, however, affected by gender. Given the scarcity of self-compassion scales for adolescents, the current study evaluates the Self-Compassion Scale for Youth (SCS-Y) in a large cross-cultural sample and investigates how the subscales of SCS-Y relate to the dimensions of depressive symptoms across gender. Through the internet-based Qualtrics, a total of 2881 teenagers aged 12 to 18 years were recruited from Hong Kong (HK), China, and the United Kingdom. A Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model was used to evaluate measurement invariance of the SCS-Y, and differential item functioning (DIF) was checked across gender. Upon the establishment of the best model, a multigroup structural equation model (SEM) was built between factors of SCS-Y and Multidimensional depression assessment scale (MDAS) which assesses four dimensions of depressive symptoms (emotional, cognitive, somatic and interpersonal). The SCS-Y was shown to have good reliability and validity. The MIMIC model produced a good model fit for a hypothetical six-factor model (CFI = 0.980; TLI = 0.974; RMSEA = 0.038) and no item was flagged for DIF across gender. A gender difference was observed between SCS-Y factors and depression dimensions. Conclusions: The SCS-Y exhibits good psychometric characteristics, including measurement invariance across gender. The study also highlights the gender difference between self-compassion factors and depression dimensions.Keywords: self compassion, gender, depression, structural equation modelling, MIMIC model
Procedia PDF Downloads 7121495 The Association between Antimicrobial Usage and Biosecurity Practices on Commercial Chicken Farms in Bangladesh
Authors: Tasneem Imam, Justine S. Gibson, Mohammad Foysal, Shetu B. Das, Rashed Mahmud, Suman D. Gupta, Ahasanul Hoque, Guillaume Fournie, Joerg Henning
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Commercial chicken production is an import livestock industry in Bangladesh. Antimicrobials are commonly used to control and prevent infectious diseases. It was hypothesized that inadequate biosecurity practices might promote antimicrobial usage on commercial chicken farms. A cross-sectional study was carried out to evaluate antimicrobial usage and farm biosecurity practices implemented on 57 layer and 83 broiler farms in eight sub-districts of the Chattogram district in Bangladesh. A questionnaire was used to collect data on antimicrobial usage and biosecurity practices on these farms. A causal framework was used to guide the development of a multi-level mixed-effects logistic regression analysis to evaluate the total and direct effects of practiced biosecurity management on prophylactic and therapeutic administration of antimicrobials. A total of 24 antimicrobials were administered in the current production cycle at the time of the survey. The most administered antimicrobials on layer farms were ciprofloxacin (37.0% of farms), amoxicillin (33.3%), and tiamulin (31.5%); however, on broiler farms, colistin (56.6% of farms), doxycycline (50.6%), and neomycin (38.6%) were most used. Only 15.3% of commercial farmers used antimicrobials entirely for therapeutic purposes, whereas 84.7% administered antimicrobials prophylactically. Inadequate biosecurity practices were more common among commercial broiler farmers compared to layer farmers. For example, only 2.4% of broiler farmers used footbaths before entering sheds compared to 22.2% of the layer farmers (p < 0.001). Farms that used antimicrobials only for therapeutic purposes (vs prophylactic) implemented more frequently adequate disease control measures, such as separating sick birds from healthy birds. This research highlighted that the prophylactic application of antimicrobials is often conducted to substitute poor biosecurity practices on commercial chicken farms. Awareness programs for farmers are crucial to inform them about the risk associated with antimicrobial usage and to highlight the economic benefits of implementing cost-effective biosecurity measures to control infectious poultry diseases.Keywords: antimicrobial, biosecurity, broiler, layer
Procedia PDF Downloads 16421494 AIPM:An Integrator and Pull Request Matching Model in Github
Authors: Zhifang Liao, Yanbing Li, Li Xu, Yan Zhang, Xiaoping Fan, Jinsong Wu
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Pull Request (PR) is the primary method for code contributions from the external contributors in Github. PR review is an essential part of open source software developments for maintaining the quality of software. Matching a new PR of an appropriate integrator will make the PR review more effective. However, PR and integrator matching are now organized manually in Github. To reduce this cost, we presented an AIPM model to predict highly relevant integrator of incoming PRs. AIPM uses topic model to extract topics from the PRs, and builds a one-to-one correspondence between topics and integrators. Then, AIPM finds the most suitable integrator according to the maximum entry of the topic-document distribution. On average, AIPM can reach a precision of 60%, and even in some projects, can reach a precision of 80%.Keywords: pull Request, integrator matching, Github, open source project, topic model
Procedia PDF Downloads 29921493 Number of Parameters of Anantharam's Model with Single-Input Single-Output Case
Authors: Kazuyoshi Mori
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In this paper, we consider the parametrization of Anantharam’s model within the framework of the factorization approach. In the parametrization, we investigate the number of required parameters of Anantharam’s model. We consider single-input single-output systems in this paper. By the investigation, we find three cases that are (1) there exist plants which require only one parameter and (2) two parameters, and (3) the number of parameters is at most three.Keywords: linear systems, parametrization, coprime factorization, number of parameters
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