Search results for: financial economics

Authors: Anna Lower, Michal Lower, Robert Masztalski, Agnieszka Szumilas

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Contemporary cities are facing serious congestion and parking problems. In urban transport policy the introduction of the park and ride system (P&R) is an increasingly popular way of limiting vehicular traffic. The determining of P&R facilities location is a key aspect of the system. Criteria for assessing the quality of the selected location are formulated generally and descriptively. The research outsourced to specialists are expensive and time consuming. The most focus is on the examination of a few selected places. The practice has shown that the choice of the location of these sites in a intuitive way without a detailed analysis of all the circumstances, often gives negative results. Then the existing facilities are not used as expected. Methods of location as a research topic are also widely taken in the scientific literature. Built mathematical models often do not bring the problem comprehensively, e.g. assuming that the city is linear, developed along one important communications corridor. The paper presents a new method where the expert knowledge is applied to fuzzy inference model. With such a built system even a less experienced person could benefit from it, e.g. urban planners, officials. The analysis result is obtained in a very short time, so a large number of the proposed location can also be verified in a short time. The proposed method is intended for testing of car parks location in a city. The paper will show selected examples of locations of the P&R facilities in cities planning to introduce the P&R. The analysis of existing objects will also be shown in the paper and they will be confronted with the opinions of the system users, with particular emphasis on unpopular locations. The research are executed using the fuzzy inference model which was built and described in more detail in the earlier paper of the authors. The results of analyzes are compared to documents of P&R facilities location outsourced by the city and opinions of existing facilities users expressed on social networking sites. The research of existing facilities were conducted by means of the fuzzy model. The results are consistent with actual users feedback. The proposed method proves to be good, but does not require the involvement of a large experts team and large financial contributions for complicated research. The method also provides an opportunity to show the alternative location of P&R facilities. The performed studies show that the method has been confirmed. The method can be applied in urban planning of the P&R facilities location in relation to the accompanying functions. Although the results of the method are approximate, they are not worse than results of analysis of employed experts. The advantage of this method is ease of use, which simplifies the professional expert analysis. The ability of analyzing a large number of alternative locations gives a broader view on the problem. It is valuable that the arduous analysis of the team of people can be replaced by the model's calculation. According to the authors, the proposed method is also suitable for implementation on a GIS platform.

Keywords: fuzzy logic inference, park and ride system, P&R facilities, P&R location

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Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

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Authors: M. Sirhan, S. Bekhor, A. Sidess

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In-service pavements deteriorate with time due to traffic wheel loads, environment, and climate conditions. Pavement deterioration leads to a reduction in their serviceability and structural behavior. Consequently, proper maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) are necessary actions to keep the in-service pavement network at the desired level of serviceability. Due to resource and financial constraints, the pavement management system (PMS) prioritizes roads most in need of maintenance and rehabilitation action. It recommends a suitable action for each pavement based on the performance and surface condition of each road in the network. The pavement performance and condition are usually quantified and evaluated by different types of roughness-based and stress-based indices. Examples of such indices are Pavement Serviceability Index (PSI), Pavement Serviceability Ratio (PSR), Mean Panel Rating (MPR), Pavement Condition Rating (PCR), Ride Number (RN), Profile Index (PI), International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). PCI is commonly used in PMS as an indicator of the extent of the distresses on the pavement surface. PCI values range between 0 and 100; where 0 and 100 represent a highly deteriorated pavement and a newly constructed pavement, respectively. The PCI value is a function of distress type, severity, and density (measured as a percentage of the total pavement area). PCI is usually calculated iteratively using the 'Paver' program developed by the US Army Corps. The use of soft computing techniques, especially Artificial Neural Network (ANN), has become increasingly popular in the modeling of engineering problems. ANN techniques have successfully modeled the performance of the in-service pavements, due to its efficiency in predicting and solving non-linear relationships and dealing with an uncertain large amount of data. Typical regression models, which require a pre-defined relationship, can be replaced by ANN, which was found to be an appropriate tool for predicting the different pavement performance indices versus different factors as well. Subsequently, the objective of the presented study is to develop and train an ANN model that predicts the PCI values. The model’s input consists of percentage areas of 11 different damage types; alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, block cracking, longitudinal/transverse cracking, edge cracking, shoving, raveling, potholes, patching, and lane drop off, at three severity levels (low, medium, high) for each. The developed model was trained using 536,000 samples and tested on 134,000 samples. The samples were collected and prepared by The National Transport Infrastructure Company. The predicted results yielded satisfactory compliance with field measurements. The proposed model predicted PCI values with relatively low standard deviations, suggesting that it could be incorporated into the PMS for PCI determination. It is worth mentioning that the most influencing variables for PCI prediction are damages related to alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, and potholes.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, computer programming, pavement condition index, pavement management, performance prediction

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Authors: Maia Kharadze, Indira Djaparidze, Maia Vanidze, Aleko Kalandia

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Modern scientific world studies chemical components and antioxidant activity of different kinds of vines according to their breed purity and location. To our knowledge, this kind of research has not been conducted in Georgia yet. The object of our research was to study Chkhaveri vine, which is included in the oldest varieties of the Black Sea basin vine. We have studied different-altitude Chkaveri grapes, juice, and wine (half dry rose-colored produced with European technologies) and their technical markers, qualitative and quantitive composition of their biologically active compounds and their antioxidant activity. We were determining the amount of phenols using Folin-Ciocalteu reagent, Flavonoids, Catechins and Anthocyanins using Spectral method and antioxidant activity using DPPH method. Several compounds were identified using –HPLC-UV-Vis, UPLC-MS methods. Six samples of Chkhaveri species– 5, 300, 360, 380, 400, 780 meter altitudes were taken and analyzed. The sample taken from 360 m altitude is distinguished by its cluster mass (383.6 grams) and high amount of sugar (20.1%). The sample taken from the five-meter altitude is distinguished by having high acidity (0.95%). Unlike other grapes varieties, such concentration of sugar and relatively low levels of citric acid ultimately leads to Chkhaveri wine individuality. Biologically active compounds of Chkhaveri were researched in 2014, 2015, 2016. The amount of total phenols in samples of 2016 fruit varies from 976.7 to 1767.0 mg/kg. Amount of Anthocians is 721.2-1630.2 mg/kg, and the amount of Flavanoids varies from 300.6 to 825.5 mg/kg. Relatively high amount of anthocyanins was found in the Chkhaveri at 780-meter altitude - 1630.2 mg/kg. Accordingly, the amount of Phenols and Flavanoids is high- 1767.9 mg/kg and 825.5 mg/kg. These characteristics are low in samples gathered from 5 meters above sea level, Anthocyanins-721.2 mg/ kg, total Phenols-976.7 mg/ kg, and Flavanoids-300.6 mg/kg. The highest amount of bioactive compounds can be found in the Chkhaveri samples of high altitudes because with rising height environment becomes harsh, the plant has to develop a better immune system using Phenolic compounds. The technology that is used for the production of wine also plays a huge role in the composition of the final product. Optimal techniques of maceration and ageing were worked out. While squeezing Chkhaveri, there are no anthocyanins in the juice. However, the amount of Anthocyanins rises during maceration. After the fermentation of dregs, the amount of anthocyanins is 55%, 521.3 gm/l, total Phenols 80% 1057.7 mg/l and Flavanoids 23.5 mg/l. Antioxidant activity of samples was also determined using the effect of 50% inhibition of the samples. All samples have high antioxidant activity. For instance, in samples at 780 meters above the sea-level antioxidant activity was 53.5%. It is relatively high compared to the sample at 5 m above sea-level with the antioxidant activity of 30.5%. Thus, there is a correlation between the amount Anthocyanins and antioxidant activity. The designated project has been fulfilled by financial support of the Georgia National Science Foundation (Grant AP/96/13, Grant 216816), Any idea in this publication is possessed by the author and may not represent the opinion of the Georgia National Science Foundation.

Keywords: antioxidants, bioactive content, wine, chkhaveri

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Authors: Priyanka Verma, Vijaya Dixit, Rishabh Bajpai

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This research paper is aimed at selecting appropriate material handling equipment among the given choices so that the automation level in material handling can be enhanced. This work is a practical case scenario of material handling systems in consumer electronic appliances manufacturing organization. The choices of material handling equipment among which the decision has to be made are Automated Guided Vehicle’s (AGV), Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR), Overhead Conveyer’s (OC) and Battery Operated Trucks/Vehicle’s (BOT). There is a need of attaining a certain level of automation in order to reduce human interventions in the organization. This requirement of achieving certain degree of automation can be attained by material handling equipment’s mentioned above. The main motive for selecting above equipment’s for study was solely based on corporate financial strategy of investment and return obtained through that investment made in stipulated time framework. Since the low cost automation with respect to material handling devices has to be achieved hence these equipment’s were selected. Investment to be done on each unit of this equipment is less than 20 lakh rupees (INR) and the recovery period is less than that of five years. Fuzzy analytic hierarchic process (FAHP) is applied here for selecting equipment where the four choices are evaluated on basis of four major criteria’s and 13 sub criteria’s, and are prioritized on the basis of weight obtained. The FAHP used here make use of triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN). The inability of the traditional AHP in order to deal with the subjectiveness and impreciseness in the pair-wise comparison process has been improved in the FAHP. The range of values for general rating purposes for all decision making parameters is kept between 0 and 1 on the basis of expert opinions captured on shop floor. These experts were familiar with operating environment and shop floor activity control. Instead of generating exact value the FAHP generates the ranges of values to accommodate the uncertainty in decision-making process. The four major criteria’s selected for the evaluation of choices of material handling equipment’s available are materials, technical capabilities, cost and other features. The thirteen sub criteria’s listed under these following four major criteria’s are weighing capacity, load per hour, material compatibility, capital cost, operating cost and maintenance cost, speed, distance moved, space required, frequency of trips, control required, safety and reliability issues. The key finding shows that among the four major criteria selected, cost is emerged as the most important criteria and is one of the key decision making aspect on the basis of which material equipment selection is based on. While further evaluating the choices of equipment available for each sub criteria it is found that AGV scores the highest weight in most of the sub-criteria’s. On carrying out complete analysis the research shows that AGV is the best material handling equipment suiting all decision criteria’s selected in FAHP and therefore it is beneficial for the organization to carry out automated material handling in the facility using AGV’s.

Keywords: fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), material handling equipment, subjectiveness, triangular fuzzy number (TFN)

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Authors: Shivani Thakur, Jasmin Dominguez Cervantes, Ahmed Zabiba, Fatima Zabiba, Sandhini Agarwal, Kamalpreet Kaur, Hussein Maatouk, Shae Chand, Omar Madriz, Tiffany Huang, Saloni Bansal

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Contraceptives are an effective public health achievement, allowing for family planning and reducing the risk of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). California’s rural Central Valley has high rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs. Factors affecting contraceptive usage here may include religious concerns, financial issues, and regional variations in the accessibility and availability of contraceptives. The increasing population and diversity of the Central Valley make the understanding of the determinants of unintended pregnancy and STDs increasingly nuanced. Patients in California’s Central Valley were surveyed at 6 surgical clinics to assess attitudes toward contraceptives. The questionnaire consisted of demographics and 14 Likert-scale statements investigating patients’ feelings regarding contraceptives. Parametric and non-parametric analysis was performed on the Likert statements. A correlation matrix for the Likert-scale statements was used to evaluate the strength of the relationship between each question. 76 patients aged 18-75 years completed the questionnaire. 90% of the participants were female, 76% Hispanic, 36% married, 44% with an income range between 30-60K, and 83% were between childbearing ages. 60% of participants stated they are currently using or had used some type of contraceptive. 25% of participants had at least one unplanned pregnancy. The most common type of contraceptives used were oral contraceptives(28%) and condoms(38%). The top reasons for patients’ contraceptive usage were: prevention of pregnancy (72%), safe sex/prevention of STDs (32%), and regulation of menstrual cycle (19%). Further analysis of Likert responses revealed that contraception usage increased due to approval of contraceptives (x̄=3.98, σ =1.02); partner approval of contraceptives (x̄=3.875, σ =1.16); and reduced anxiety about pregnancy (x̄=3.875, σ =1.23). Younger females (18-34 years old) agreed more with the statement that the cost of contraceptive supplies is too expensive than older females (35-75 years old), (x̄=3.2, σ = 1.4 vs x̄=2.8, σ =1.3, p<0.05). Younger females (44%) were also more likely to use short-acting contraceptive methods (oral and male condoms) compared to older females (64%) who use long-acting methods (implants/ intrauterine devices). 51% of Hispanic females were using some type of contraceptive. Of those Hispanic females who do not use contraceptives, 33% stated having no children, and all plan to have at least one child in the future. 35% of participants had a bachelor's degree. Those with bachelor’s degrees were more likely to use contraceptives, 58% vs 51%, p<0.05, and less likely to have unplanned pregnancy, 50% vs. 12%, p<0.01. There is increasing use and awareness among patients in rural settings concerning contraceptives. Our finding shows that younger women and women with higher educational attainment tend to have more positive attitudes towards the use of contraceptives. This work gives physicians an understanding of patients’ concerns about contraceptive methods and offers insight into culturally competent intervention programs that respect individual values.

Keywords: contraceptives, public health, rural california, women of child baring age

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Authors: Songdi Li, Louise Spry, Tony Woodall

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Nowadays, Corporate Social responsibility (CSR) is becoming a buzz word, and more and more academics are putting efforts on CSR studies. It is believed that CSR could influence Corporate Reputation (CR), and they hold a favourable view that CSR leads to a positive CR. To be specific, the CSR related activities in the reputational context have been regarded as ways that associate to excellent financial performance, value creation, etc. Also, it is argued that CSR and CR are two sides of one coin; hence, to some extent, doing CSR is equal to establishing a good reputation. Still, there is no consensus of the CSR-CR relationship in the literature; thus, a systematic literature review is highly in need. This research conducts a systematic literature review with both bibliometric and content analysis. Data are selected from English language sources, and academic journal articles only, then, keyword combinations are applied to identify relevant sources. Data from Scopus and WoS are gathered for bibliometric analysis. Scopus search results were saved in RIS and CSV formats, and Web of Science (WoS) data were saved in TXT format and CSV formats in order to process data in the Bibexcel software for further analysis which later will be visualised by the software VOSviewer. Also, content analysis was applied to analyse the data clusters and the key articles. In terms of the topic of CSR-CR, this literature review with bibliometric analysis has made four achievements. First, this paper has developed a systematic study which quantitatively depicts the knowledge structure of CSR and CR by identifying terms closely related to CSR-CR (such as ‘corporate governance’) and clustering subtopics emerged in co-citation analysis. Second, content analysis is performed to acquire insight on the findings of bibliometric analysis in the discussion section. And it highlights some insightful implications for the future research agenda, for example, a psychological link between CSR-CR is identified from the result; also, emerging economies and qualitative research methods are new elements emerged in the CSR-CR big picture. Third, a multidisciplinary perspective presents through the whole bibliometric analysis mapping and co-word and co-citation analysis; hence, this work builds a structure of interdisciplinary perspective which potentially leads to an integrated conceptual framework in the future. Finally, Scopus and WoS are compared and contrasted in this paper; as a result, Scopus which has more depth and comprehensive data is suggested as a tool for future bibliometric analysis studies. Overall, this paper has fulfilled its initial purposes and contributed to the literature. To the author’s best knowledge, this paper conducted the first literature review of CSR-CR researches that applied both bibliometric analysis and content analysis; therefore, this paper achieves its methodological originality. And this dual approach brings advantages of carrying out a comprehensive and semantic exploration in the area of CSR-CR in a scientific and realistic method. Admittedly, its work might exist subjective bias in terms of search terms selection and paper selection; hence triangulation could reduce the subjective bias to some degree.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, corporate reputation, bibliometric analysis, software program

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Authors: Haniyeh Parhizkar

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When Sarris came up with the "auteur theory" in 1962, he emphasized that the utmost premise of auteur theory is the inner meanings and concepts of a film and that a film is purely an art form. Today's mainstream movies are conceptually closer to what the Frankfurt School scholars regarded as "reproduced" and "mass culture" years ago. Hollywood goes on to be a huge movie-making machine that leads the dominant paradigms of films throughout the world and cinema is far from art. Although there are still movies, directors, and audiences who favor art cinema over Hollywood and mainstream movies, it's an almost undeniable fact that, for the most part, people's perception of movies is widely influenced by their American depiction and Hollywood's legacy of mass culture. With the uprising of Hollywood studios as the forerunners of the movie industry and cinema being largely dependent on economics rather than artistic values, this distinctive role of cinema has diminished and is replaced with a global standard. The Blockbuster 2022 film, 'Everything, Everywhere, All at Once' is now the most-awarded movie of all time, winning seven Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards. Despite its main cast being Asian, the movie is produced by American incorporation and is heavily influenced by Hollywood's dominant themes of superheroes, fantasy, action, and adventure. The New Yorker film critic, Richard Brody, called the movie "a pitch for a Marvel" and critiqued the film for being "universalized" and "empty of history and culture". Other critics of Variety pinpointed the movie's similarities to Marvel, particularly in their storylines of multi-universe which manifest traces of American legacy. As argued by these critics, 'Everything, Everywhere, All at Once' might appear as a unique and authentic film at first glance, but it can be argued that it is yet another version of a Marvel movie. While the movie's universal acclaim was regarded as recognition and an acknowledgment of its Asian cast, the issue that arises here is when the Hollywood influences and American themes are so robust in the film, is the movie industry honoring another culture or is it yet another celebration of Hollywood's dominant paradigm. This essay will employ a critical approach to Hollywood's dominance and mass-produced culture, which has deprived authenticity of non-American movies and is constantly reproducing the same formula of success.

Keywords: hollywoodization, universalization, blockbuster, dominant paradigm, marvel, authenticity, diversity

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Authors: Tasneem Chopra

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The 1968 Summer Olympics will forever be remembered for the silent protest against racism exhibited by American athletes Tommy Smith and John Carlos. Also standing on the medal podium was Australian Peter Norman, whose silent solidarity as a white sportsman completes the powerful, evocative image of that night in Mexico City. In the 50 years since Norman’s stance of solidarity with his American counterparts, Australian sports has traveled a wide arc of racism narratives, with athletes still experiencing episodes of bigotry, both on the pitch and elsewhere. Aboriginal athletes, like tennis champion Yvonne Goolagong, have endured the plaudits of appreciation for their achievements on both the national and international stage, while simultaneously being subject to both prejudice and even questions as to their right to represent their country as full, acceptable citizens. Racism in Australia is directed toward Australian athletes of colour as well as foreign sportspeople who visit the country. The complex, mutating nature of racism in Australia is also informed by the culture of silence, where fellow athletes stand mute in light of their colleagues’ experience with bigotry. This paper analyses the phenomenon of sports racism in Australia over the past fifty years, culminating in the most recent showdown between Heretier Lumumba, former Collingwood football player, and his public allegations of racism experienced by team mates over his 10 year career. It shall examine the treatment and mistreatment of athletes because of their race and will further assess how such public perceptions both shape Australian culture or are themselves a manifestation of preexisting pathologies of bigotry. Further, it will examine the efficacy of anti-racism initiatives in responding to this hate. This paper will analyse the growing influence of corporate and media entities in crafting the economics of Australian sports and assess the role of such factors in creating the narrative of racism in the nation, both as a sociological reality as well as a marker of national identity. Finally, this paper will examine the political, social and economic forces that contribute to the culture of silence in Australian society in defying racism.

Keywords: aboriginal, Australia, corporations, silence

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Authors: D. M. Koers, A. J. Groen, P. D. Englis, R. Harms

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We are witnessing the largest level of displacement of people since World War II. Refugees want to become independent as quickly as possible and build a new, safe future; however, access to the labor market is difficult and they face many problems that are not easily solved. This makes self-employment including social entrepreneurship a valuable alternative. Our research studied refugee-based entrepreneurship and examined whether prior knowledge, unmet personal needs and contextual factors influence how refugees recognize opportunities and if this influences their social orientation. In addition, we examine the barriers refugees face when starting up a company in the Netherlands. We use a case study design with a mixed-method approach, combining in-depth interviews and survey data. Data was collected from two Dutch entrepreneurial training programs in the Netherlands. We have a sample size of 27 latent refugee entrepreneurs. Our results show that refugees score high on the social entrepreneurial measures. They perceive themselves as having a strong social vision and are determined to defend a social need. They also score high on sustainability and state that their business ideas improve the quality of life on the long run. Based on these findings, we did not expect that only 5 participants had business ideas with a social orientation. In this group, 37,5% started a company before and 77.8% used their personal experience to come up with this business idea. Another 70,3% had the higher professional education or academic education. In the interviews, we found that they often copy and paste their gained experience from a previous profession on their new context and expect that it would work well. The social aspect lies in their cultural values and personal beliefs but is not reflected in their business models. One of the reasons could be that the context in which the refugee operates as a moderator suppressing the social mission and social value creation opportunities. Refugees are first and foremost focused on their survival. They do not want to be on social welfare and feel a strong need to be independent. Since they cannot access the labor market easily and face labor market discrimination they want to start a company. Another factor that explains lack of the social orientation in their business ideas is that social entrepreneurship is not a known concept in their home countries. Their idea of entrepreneurship differs substantially. We found that a huge barrier for refugees is their expectations about setting up a business, which are often not realistic because they have little knowledge about the system, institutions and corresponding red tape. In those instances, can the institutional configuration of a country, cultural differences, and perspective on entrepreneurship hinders social entrepreneurship. In conclusion, there might be latent potential for social entrepreneurship in refugees but there are many barriers to overcome. Overcoming these barriers can enhance local communities and enhance integration. In addition it has a positive financial impact on the host country because it reduces the pressure on the social system and stimulate the economy.

Keywords: immigrant entrepreneurship, refugee entrepreneurship, social entrepreneurship, prior experience, opportunity recognition

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Authors: Eyup Dogan

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The number of research articles analyzing the integration properties of energy variables has rapidly increased in the energy literature for about a decade. The stochastic behaviors of energy variables are worth knowing due to several reasons. For instance, national policies to conserve or promote energy consumption, which should be taken as shocks to energy consumption, will have transitory effects in energy consumption if energy consumption is found to be stationary in one country. Furthermore, it is also important to know the order of integration to employ an appropriate econometric model. Despite being an important subject for applied energy (economics) and having a huge volume of studies, several known limitations still exist with the existing literature. For example, many of the studies use aggregate energy consumption and national level data. In addition, a huge part of the literature is either multi-country studies or solely focusing on the U.S. This is the first study in the literature that considers a form of energy consumption by sectors at sub-national level. This research study aims at investigating unit root properties of electricity consumption for 12 regions of Turkey by four sectors in addition to total electricity consumption for the purpose of filling the mentioned limits in the literature. In this regard, we analyze stationarity properties of 60 cases . Because the use of multiple unit root tests make the results robust and consistent, we apply Dickey-Fuller unit root test based on Generalized Least Squares regression (DFGLS), Phillips-Perron unit root test (PP) and Zivot-Andrews unit root test with one endogenous structural break (ZA). The main finding of this study is that electricity consumption is trend stationary in 7 cases according to DFGLS and PP, whereas it is stationary process in 12 cases when we take into account the structural change by applying ZA. Thus, shocks to electricity consumption have transitory effects in those cases; namely, agriculture in region 1, region 4 and region 7, industrial in region 5, region 8, region 9, region 10 and region 11, business in region 4, region 7 and region 9, total electricity consumption in region 11. Regarding policy implications, policies to decrease or stimulate the use of electricity have a long-run impact on electricity consumption in 80% of cases in Turkey given that 48 cases are non-stationary process. On the other hand, the past behavior of electricity consumption can be used to predict the future behavior of that in 12 cases only.

Keywords: unit root, electricity consumption, sectoral data, subnational data

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Authors: Shreya Saxena

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Background: Choledocholithiasis is a common complication of gallstone disease. Risk scoring systems exist to guide the need for further imaging or endoscopy in managing choledocholithiasis. We completed an audit to review the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) scoring system for prediction and management of choledocholithiasis against the current practice at a tertiary hospital to assess its utility in resource optimisation. We have now conducted a cost focused sub-analysis on patients categorized high-risk for choledocholithiasis according to the guidelines to determine any associated cost benefits. Method: Data collection from our prior audit was used to retrospectively identify thirteen patients considered high-risk for choledocholithiasis. Their ongoing management was mapped against the guidelines. Individual costs for the key investigations were obtained from our hospital financial data. Total cost for the different management pathways identified in clinical practice were calculated and compared against predicted costs associated with recommendations in the guidelines. We excluded the cost of laparoscopic cholecystectomy and considered a set figure for per day hospital admission related expenses. Results: Based on our previous audit data, we identified a77% positive predictive value for the ASGE risk stratification tool to determine patients at high-risk of choledocholithiasis. 47% (6/13) had an magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) prior to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), whilst 53% (7/13) went straight for ERCP. The average length of stay in the hospital was 7 days, with an additional day and cost of £328.00 (£117 for ERCP) for patients awaiting an MRCP prior to ERCP. Per day hospital admission was valued at £838.69. When calculating total cost, we assumed all patients had admission bloods and ultrasound done as the gold standard. In doing an MRCP prior to ERCP, there was a 130% increase in cost incurred (£580.04 vs £252.04) per patient. When also considering hospital admission and the average length of stay, it was an additional £1166.69 per patient. We then calculated the exact costs incurred by the department, over a three-month period, for all patients, for key investigations or procedures done in the management of choledocholithiasis. This was compared to an estimate cost derived from the recommended pathways in the ASGE guidelines. Overall, 81% (£2048.45) saving was associated with following the guidelines compared to clinical practice. Conclusion: MRCP is the most expensive test associated with the diagnosis and management of choledocholithiasis. The ASGE guidelines recommend endoscopy without an MRCP in patients stratified as high-risk for choledocholithiasis. Our audit that focused on assessing the utility of the ASGE risk scoring system showed it to be relatively reliable for identifying high-risk patients. Our cost analysis has shown significant cost savings per patient and when considering the average length of stay associated with direct endoscopy rather than an additional MRCP. Part of this is also because of an increased average length of stay associated with waiting for an MRCP. The above data supports the ASGE guidelines for the management of high-risk for choledocholithiasis patients from a cost perspective. The only caveat is our small data set that may impact the validity of our average length of hospital stay figures and hence total cost calculations.

Keywords: cost-analysis, choledocholithiasis, risk stratification tool, general surgery

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Authors: Varsha Puri, Sharon Hudson, Ian Kim

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Background: Incest-related childhood sexual abuse (IRCSA) is challenging to study due to the shame and secrecy experienced by its survivors. Ramifications of IRCSA worsen when it is unidentified, and interventions are not made. IRCSA perspectives are essential for future prevention and intervention strategies. However, there is limited understanding of this population’s experiences, perspectives, and long-term struggles. To date, research for IRCSA has utilized data from treatment programs and qualitative research with cohorts of 10-20 people, much of the data is from 10-40 years prior. Methods. In June 2018, an anonymous online survey was posted to multiple social media sites (e.g., Facebook IRCSA groups) and sexual abuse resource sites. Survey responses were collected for a year. The survey collected non-identifying demographics, IRCSA experiences, and outcomes data. Results: We obtained 1310 completed surveys. Demographics of all ages, racial backgrounds, financial backgrounds, and genders were obtained; the majority identified as white (81%) and female (76%). Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) started before the age of 6 in 49% and was endured for more than one year in 84% of respondents, and 39% reported ten or more years of abuse. CSA by multiple perpetrators occurred in 58%, while 8% had ten or more perpetrators. CSA by perpetrators under 21 years old was reported by 46%. Female perpetrators were reported by 28% of respondents. Fathers were the highest reported sexual abusers at 60%, and mothers were reported at 17%. Only 16% reported that at least one of their perpetrators was prosecuted for sexual abuse of a minor. Respondents confirmed that 54% of the time, they informed an adult of the abuse; only 2% agreed that “an intervention was made by the family that protected me.” A majority reported that IRCSA has negatively impacted their intimate/sexual relationships (96%) and mental health (96%). A majority reported negative impacts on biological family relationships (88%), physical health (73%), finances (59%), educational achievement (57%), and employment (56%). When asked about suffering from addiction, 85% of respondents answered yes. Prevention strategies selected most by respondents include early school education around CSA prevention (67%), removing the statute of limitations for reporting CSA (69%), and improved laws protecting IRCSA survivors (63%). Conclusion: The data document that IRCSA can be pervasive, and the dearth of intervention and support for survivors have major lasting impacts. Survivors have a unique and valuable perspective on what interventions are needed to prevent IRCSA and support survivors; their voice has long been unheard in crafting prevention and intervention policies and services. These results thus provide an important call to action from these critical stakeholders. Pediatricians should recognize that perpetrators can be pediatric patients, women, and parents. Pediatricians can advocate for more early CSA prevention education and policy changes that remove the statute of limitations for reporting CSA.

Keywords: incest, childhood sexual abuse, incest-related childhood sexual abuse, incest survivor

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Authors: Olasunkanmi Olapeju

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A large chunk of global population are not yet connected to water borne faecal management systems that rely on flush mechanisms and sewers networks that are linked with a central treatment plant. Only about 10% of sub-Saharan African countries are connected to central sewage systems. In Nigeria, majority of the population do not only depend on on-plot sanitation systems, a huge chunk do not also have access to safe and improved toilets. Apart from the organizational challenges and technical capacity, the other major factors that account for why faecal waste management is yet unimproved in developing countries are faulty planning frameworks that fail to maintain balance between urbanization dynamics and infrastructures, and misconceptions about what modern sanitation is all about. In most cases, the quest to implement developmental patterns that integrate modern sewers based sanitation systems have huge financial and political costs. Faecal waste management in poor countries largely lacks the needed political attention and budgetary prioritization. Yet, the on-plot sanitation systems being mainly relied upon the need to be managed in a manner that is sustainable and healthy, pending when development would embrace a more sustainable off-site central sewage system. This study is aimed at investigating existing strategies for managing on-plot sanitation systems’ faecal waste in Ogun state, Nigeria, with the aim of recommending sustainable sanitation management systems. The study adopted the convergent parallel variant of the mixed-mode technique, which involves the adoption of both quantitative and qualitative method of data collection. Adopting a four-level multi-stage approach, which is inclusive of all political divisions in the study area, a total of 330 questionnaires were respectively administered in the study area. Moreover, the qualitative data adopted the purposive approach in scoping down to 33 key informants. SPSS software (Version 22.0) was employed for descriptively analysis. The study shows that about 52% of households adopt the non-recovery management (NRM) means of burying their latrines with sand sludge shrinkage with chemicals such as carbides. The dominance of the non-recovery management means seriously constrains the quest for faecal resource recovery. Essentially, the management techniques adopted by households depend largely on the technology of their sanitary containments, emptying means available, the ability of households to pay for the cost of emptying, and the social acceptability of the reusability of faecal waste, which determines faecal resource recoverability. The study suggests that there is a need for municipal authorities in the study area to urgently intervene in the sanitation sector and consider it a key element of the planning process. There is a need for a comprehensive plan that would ensure a seamless transition to the adoption of a modern sanitation management system.

Keywords: faecal, management, planning, waste, sanitation, sustainability

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Authors: Garima Singh

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Objectives: Behavioral Crisis Center (BCC) is a community solution to a community problem. There has been an exponential increase in the incidence and prevalence of mental health crises around the world. The effects of the crisis negatively impact our patients and their families and strain the law enforcement and emergency room. The goal of the multi-disciplinary care model is to break the crisis cycle and provide 24-7 rapid access to an acre and crisis stabilization. We initiated our first BCC care center in 2020 in the midst of the COVID pandemic and have seen a remarkable improvement in patient ‘care and positive financial outcome. Background: Mental illnesses are common in the United States. Nearly one in five U.S. adults live with a mental illness (52.9 million in 2020). This number represented 21.0% of all U.S. adults. To address some of these challenges and help our community, In May 2020, we opened our first Behavioral crisis center (BCC). Since then, we have served more than 2500 patients and is the first southwest Missouri’s first 24/7 facility for crisis–level behavioral health and substance use needs. It has been proven to be a more effective place than emergency departments, jails, or local law enforcement. Methods: BCC was started in 2020 to serve the unmet need of the community and provide access to behavioral health and substance use services identified in the community. Funding was possible with significant investment from the county and Missouri Foundation for Health, with contributions from medical partners. It is a multi-disciplinary care center consisting of Physicians, nurse practitioners, nurses, behavioral technicians, peer support specialists, clinical intake specialists, and clinical coordinators and hospitality specialists. The center provides services including psychiatry care, outpatient therapy, community support services, primary care, peer support and engagement. It is connected to a residential treatment facility for substance use treatment for continuity of care and bridging the gap, which has resulted in the completion of treatment and better outcomes. Results: BCC has proven to be a great resource to the community and the Missouri Health Coalition is providing funding to replicate the model in other regions and work on a similar model for children and adolescents. Overall, 29% of the patients seen at BCC are stabilized and discharged with outpatient care. 50% needed acute stabilization in a hospital setting and 21% required long-term admission, mostly for substance use treatment. The local emergency room had a 42% reduction in behavioral health encounters compared to the previous 3 years. Also, by a quick transfer to BCC, the average stay in ER was reduced by 10 hours and time to follow up behavioral health assessment decreased by an average of 4 hours. Uninsured patients are also provided Medicaid application assistance which has benefited 55% of individuals receiving care at BCC. Conclusions: BCC is impacting community health and improving access to quality care and substance use treatment. It is a great investment for our patients and families.

Keywords: BCC, behvaioral health, community health care, addiction treatment

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Empirical evidence has, over time, confirmed that the behavior of individuals is inconsistent with the descriptions provided by the Discounted Utility Model, an essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. The model assumes that individuals calculate the utility of intertemporal prospectuses by adding up the values of all outcomes obtained by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome by the discount function estimated at the time the outcome is received. The trend of the discount function is crucial for the preferences of the decision maker because it represents the perception of the future, and its trend causes temporally consistent or temporally inconsistent preferences. In particular, because different formulations of the discount function lead to various conclusions in predicting choice, the descriptive ability of models with a hyperbolic trend is greater than linear or exponential models. Suboptimal choices from any time point of view are the consequence of this mechanism, the psychological factors of which are encapsulated in the discount rate trend. In addition, analyzing the decision-making process from a psychological perspective, there is an equivalence between the selection of dominated prospects and a degree of impatience that decreases over time. The first part of the paper describes and investigates the anomalies of the discounted utility model by relating the cognitive distortions of the decision-maker to the emotional factors that are generated during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. Specifically, by studying the degree to which impatience decreases, it’s possible to quantify how the psychological and emotional mechanisms of the decision-maker result in a lack of decision persistence. In addition, this description presents inconsistency as the consequence of an inconsistent attitude towards time-delayed choices. The second part of the paper presents an experimental phase in which we show the relationship between inconsistency and impatience in different contexts. Analysis of the degree to which impatience decreases confirms the influence of the decision maker's emotional impulses for each anomaly in the utility model discussed in the first part of the paper. This work provides an application in the field of personalized behavioral finance. Indeed, the numerous behavioral diversities, evident even in the degrees of decrease in impatience in the experimental phase, support the idea that optimal strategies may not satisfy individuals in the same way. With the aim of homogenizing the categories of investors and to provide a personalized approach to advice, the results proven in the experimental phase are used in a complementary way with the information in the field of behavioral finance to implement the Analytical Hierarchy Process model in intertemporal choices, useful for strategic personalization. In the construction of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the degree of decrease in impatience is understood as reflecting irrationality in decision-making and is therefore used for the construction of weights between anomalies and behavioral traits.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance, financial anomalies, impatience, time inconsistency

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Authors: A. F. G. Van Woezik, L. M. A. Braakman-Jansen, O. A. Kulyk, J. E. W. C. Van Gemert-Pijnen

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Background: Zoonoses pose a serious threat to public health and economies worldwide, especially as antimicrobial resistance grows and newly emerging zoonoses can cause unpredictable outbreaks. In order to prevent and control emerging and re-emerging zoonoses, collaboration between veterinary, human health and public health domains is essential. In reality however, there is a lack of cooperation between these three disciplines and uncertainties exist about their tasks and responsibilities. The objective of this ongoing research project (ZonMw funded, 2014-2018) is to develop an online education and communication One Health platform, “eZoon”, for the general public and professionals working in veterinary, human health and public health domains to support the risk communication of non-alimentary zoonoses in the Netherlands. The main focus is on education and communication in times of outbreak as well as in daily non-outbreak situations. Methods: A participatory development approach was used in which stakeholders from veterinary, human health and public health domains participated. Key stakeholders were identified using business modeling techniques previously used for the design and implementation of antibiotic stewardship interventions and consisted of a literature scan, expert recommendations, and snowball sampling. We used a stakeholder salience approach to rank stakeholders according to their power, legitimacy, and urgency. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders (N=20) from all three disciplines to identify current problems in risk communication and stakeholder values for the One Health platform. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded inductively by two researchers. Results: The following key values were identified (but were not limited to): (a) need for improved awareness of veterinary and human health of each other’s fields, (b) information exchange between veterinary and human health, in particularly at a regional level; (c) legal regulations need to match with daily practice; (d) professionals and general public need to be addressed separately using tailored language and information; (e) information needs to be of value to professionals (relevant, important, accurate, and have financial or other important consequences if ignored) in order to be picked up; and (f) need for accurate information from trustworthy, centrally organised sources to inform the general public. Conclusion: By applying a participatory development approach, we gained insights from multiple perspectives into the main problems of current risk communication strategies in the Netherlands and stakeholder values. Next, we will continue the iterative development of the One Health platform by presenting key values to stakeholders for validation and ranking, which will guide further development. We will develop a communication platform with a serious game in which professionals at the regional level will be trained in shared decision making in time-critical outbreak situations, a smart Question & Answer (Q&A) system for the general public tailored towards different user profiles, and social media to inform the general public adequately during outbreaks.

Keywords: ehealth, one health, risk communication, stakeholder, zoonosis

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Authors: Álvaro Turriago-Hoyos

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Most research tends to see innovation as an explanatory factor in achieving high levels of competitiveness and productivity. More recent studies have begun to analyze the determinants of innovation in the services sector as opposed to the much-discussed industrial sector of a country’s economy. This research paper focuses on the services sector in Colombia, one of Latin America’s fastest growing and biggest economies. Over the past decade, much of Colombia’s economic expansion has relied on commodity exports (mainly oil and coffee) whilst the industrial sector has performed relatively poorly. Such developments highlight the potential of the innovative role played by the services sector of the Colombian economy and its future growth prospects. This research paper analyzes the relationship between inputs, which at the same time are internal sources of innovation (such as R&D activities), and external sources that are improved by technology acquisition. The outputs are basically the four kinds of innovation that the OECD Oslo Manual recognizes: product, process, marketing and organizational innovations. The instrument used to measure this input-output relationship is based on Knowledge Production Function approaches. We run Probit models in order to identify the existing relationships between the above inputs and outputs, but also to identify spill-overs derived from interactions of the components of the value chain of the services firms analyzed: customers, suppliers, competitors, and complementary firms. Data are obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics for the period 2008 to 2013 published in the II and III Colombian National Innovation Survey. A short summary of the results obtained lead to conclude that firm size and a firm’s level of technological development turn out to be important discriminating factors for the description of the innovative process at the firm level. The model’s outcomes show a positive impact on the probability of introducing any kind of innovation both on R&D and Technology Acquisition investment. Also, cooperation agreements with customers, research institutes, competitors, and the suppliers are significant. Belonging to a particular industrial group is an important determinant but only to product and organizational innovation. It is possible to establish that Health Services, Education, Computer, Wholesale trade, and Financial Intermediation are the ISIC sectors, which report the highest number of frequencies of the considered set of firms. Those five sectors of the sixteen considered, in all cases, explained more than half of the total of all kinds of innovations. Product Innovation, which is followed by Marketing Innovation, gets the highest results. Displaying the same set of firms distinguishing by size, and belonging to high and low tech services sector shows that the larger the firms the larger a number of innovations, but also that always high-tech firms show a better innovation performance.

Keywords: Colombia, determinants of innovation, innovation, services sector

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Authors: Giga Rahmah An-Nafisah, Lailatus Syifa Kamilah

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Agriculture today, especially in Indonesia have globally improved. Since the election of the new president, who in the program of work priority the food self-sufficiency. Many ways and attempts have been planned carefully. All this is done to maximize agricultural production for the future. But if we look from another side, there is something missing. Yes! Improvement of life safety of the farmers, useless we fix all agricultural processing systems to maximize agricultural output, but the Hero of agriculture itself it does not change towards a better life. Yes, broker or middleman system agriculture results. Broker system or middleman this is the real problem facing farmers for their welfare. How come? As much as agriculture result, but if farmers were sell into middlemen with very low prices, then there will be no progress for their welfare. Broker system who do the actual middlemen should not happen in the current agricultural system, because the agriculture condition currently being concern, they would still be able to reap a profit as much as possible, no matter how miserable farmers manage the farm and currently face import competition this cannot be avoided anymore. This phenomenon is already visible plain sight all, who see it. Why? Because farmers those who fell victim cannot do anything to change this system. It is true, if only these middlemen who want to receive it for the sale of agricultural products, or arguably the only system that is the bridge realtor economic life of the farmers. The problem is that we should strive for the welfare of the heroes of our food. A golden bridge that could save them that, are the government. Why? Because the government can more easily with the powers to stop this broker system compared to other parties. The government supposed to be a bridge connecting the farmers with consumers or the people themselves. Yes, with improved broker system becomes: buy agricultural produce with highest prices to farmers and selling of agricultural products with lowest price to the consumer or the people themselves. And then the next question about the fate of middlemen? The system indirectly realtor is like system corruption. Why? Because the definition of corruption is an activity that is detrimental to the victim without being noticed by anyone continue to enrich himself and his victim's life miserable. Government may transfer performance of the middlemen into the idea of a new bridge that is done by the government itself. The government could lift them into this new bridge system employs them to remain a distributor of agricultural products themselves, but under the new policy made by the government to keep improving the welfare of farmers. This idea is made is not going to have much effect would improve the welfare of farmers, but most/least this idea will bring around many people for helping conscience farmers to the government, through the daily chatter, as well as celebrity gossip can quickly know too many people.

Keywords: broker system, farmers live, government, agricultural economics

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Authors: Tarek Saadawi, Rosario Gennaro, Jonathan Akeley

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There is rapidly growing demand for professionals to fill positions in Cybersecurity. This is recognized as a national priority both by government agencies and the private sector. Cybersecurity is a very wide technical area which encompasses all measures that can be taken in an electronic system to prevent criminal or unauthorized use of data and resources. This requires defending computers, servers, networks, and their users from any kind of malicious attacks. The need to address this challenge has been recognized globally but is particularly acute in the New York metropolitan area, home to some of the largest financial institutions in the world, which are prime targets of cyberattacks. In New York State alone, there are currently around 57,000 jobs in the Cybersecurity industry, with more than 23,000 unfilled positions. The Cybersecurity Program at City College is a collaboration between the Departments of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering. In Fall 2020, The City College of New York matriculated its first students in theCybersecurity Master of Science program. The program was designed to fill gaps in the previous offerings and evolved out ofan established partnership with Facebook on Cybersecurity Education. City College has designed a program where courses, curricula, syllabi, materials, labs, etc., are developed in cooperation and coordination with industry whenever possible, ensuring that students graduating from the program will have the necessary background to seamlessly segue into industry jobs. The Cybersecurity Program has created multiple pathways for prospective students to obtain the necessary prerequisites to apply in order to build a more diverse student population. The program can also be pursued on a part-time basis which makes it available to working professionals. Since City College’s Cybersecurity M.S. program was established to equip students with the advanced technical skills needed to thrive in a high-demand, rapidly-evolving field, it incorporates a range of pedagogical formats. From its outset, the Cybersecurity program has sought to provide both the theoretical foundations necessary for meaningful work in the field along with labs and applied learning projects aligned with skillsets required by industry. The efforts have involved collaboration with outside organizations and with visiting professors designing new courses on topics such as Adversarial AI, Data Privacy, Secure Cloud Computing, and blockchain. Although the program was initially designed with a single asynchronous course in the curriculum with the rest of the classes designed to be offered in-person, the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a move to fullyonline learning. The shift to online learning has provided lessons for future development by providing examples of some inherent advantages to the medium in addition to its drawbacks. This talk will address the structure of the newly-implemented Cybersecurity Master’s Program and discuss the innovations, challenges, and possible future directions.

Keywords: cybersecurity, new york, city college, graduate degree, master of science

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Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

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On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

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Authors: Lata Shakya, Toshio Otsuki, Saori Imoto, Bijaya Krishna Shrestha, Umesh Bahadur Malla

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2015 Gorkha Nepal earthquake have damaged the human settlements in 14 districts of Nepal. Historic core areas of three principal cities namely Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur including numerous traditional ‘newari’ settlements in the peripheral areas have been either collapsed or severely damaged. Despite Government of Nepal and (international) non-government organisations’ attempt towards disaster risk management through the preparation of policies and guidelines and implementation of community-based activities, the recent ‘Gorkha’ earthquake has demonstrated the inadequate preparedness, poor implementation of a legal instrument, resource constraints, and managerial weakness. However, the social capital through community based institutions, self-help attitude, and community bond has helped a lot not only in rescue and relief operation but also in a post-disaster temporary shelter living thereby exhibiting the resilient power of the local community. Conducting a detailed case study of ‘Kaminani’ community with 42 houses at ward no. 16 of Bhaktapur municipality, this paper analyses the local community’s response and activities on the Gorkha earthquake in rescue and relief operation as well as in post disaster work. Leadership, the existence of internal/external aid, physical and human support are also analyzed. Social resource and networking are also explained through critical review of the existing community organisation and their activities. The research methodology includes literature review, field survey, and interview with community leaders and residents based on a semi-structured questionnaire. The study reveals that community carried their recovery process in four different phases: (i) management of emergency evacuation, (ii) constructing community owed temporary shelter for individuals, (iii) demolishing upper floors of the damaged houses, and (iv) planning for collaborative housing reconstruction. As territorial based organization, religion based agency and aim based institution exist in the survey area from pre-disaster time, it can be assumed that the community activists including leaders are well experienced to create aim-based group and manage teamwork to deal with various issues and problems collaboratively. Physical and human support including partial financial aid from external source as a result of community leader’s personal networking is extended to the community members. Thus, human/social resource and personal/social network play a crucial role in the recovery process. And to build such social capital, community should have potential from pre-disaster time.

Keywords: Gorkha Nepal earthquake, local community, recovery process, social resource, social network

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Authors: Elena Filova, Ondrej Kaplan, Marie Markova, Helena Dragounova, Roman Matejka, Eduard Brynda, Lucie Bacakova

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Decellularized vessels have been evaluated as small-diameter vascular prostheses. Reseeding autologous cells onto decellularized tissue prior implantation should prolong prostheses function and make them living tissues. Suitable cell types for reseeding are both endothelial cells and bone marrow-derived stem cells, with a capacity for differentiation into smooth muscle cells upon mechanical loading. Endothelial cells assure antithrombogenicity of the vessels and MSCs produce growth factors and, after their differentiation into smooth muscle cells, they are contractile and produce extracellular matrix proteins as well. Fibrin is a natural scaffold, which allows direct cell adhesion based on integrin receptors. It can be prepared autologous. Fibrin can be modified with bound growth factors, such as basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). These modifications in turn make the scaffold more attractive for cells ingrowth into the biological scaffold. The aim of the study was to prepare thin surface-attached fibrin assemblies with bound FGF-2 and VEGF, and to evaluate growth and differentiation of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells on the fibrin (Fb) assemblies. Following thin surface-attached fibrin assemblies were prepared: Fb, Fb+VEGF, Fb+FGF2, Fb+heparin, Fb+heparin+VEGF, Fb+heparin+FGF2, Fb+heparin+FGF2+VEGF. Cell culture poly-styrene and glass coverslips were used as controls. Human MSCs (passage 3) were seeded at the density of 8800 cells/1.5 mL alpha-MEM medium with 2.5% FS and 200 U/mL aprotinin per well of a 24-well cell culture. The cells have been cultured on the samples for 6 days. Cell densities on day 1, 3, and 6 were analyzed after staining with LIVE/DEAD cytotoxicity/viability assay kit. The differentiation of MSCs is being analyzed using qPCR. On day 1, the highest density of MSCs was observed on Fb+VEGF and Fb+FGF2. On days 3 and 6, there were similar densities on all samples. On day 1, cell morphology was polygonal and spread on all sample. On day 3 and 6, MSCs growing on Fb assemblies with FGF2 became apparently elongated. The evaluation of expression of genes for von Willebrand factor and CD31 (endothelial cells), for alpha-actin (smooth muscle cells), and for alkaline phosphatase (osteoblasts) is in progress. We prepared fibrin assemblies with bound VEGF and FGF-2 that supported attachment and growth of mesenchymal stem cells. The layers are promising for improving the ingrowth of MSCs into the biological scaffold. Supported by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic TA04011345, and Ministry of Health NT11270-4/2010, and BIOCEV – Biotechnology and Biomedicine Centre of the Academy of Sciences and Charles University” project (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0109), funded by the European Regional Development Fund for their financial supports.

Keywords: fibrin assemblies, FGF-2, mesenchymal stem cells, VEGF

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Authors: Katarina Ott, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić, Branko Stanić

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The determinants of national budget transparency have been widely discussed in the literature, while research on determinants of local budget transparency are scarce and empirically inconclusive, particularly in the new, fiscally centralised, EU member states. To fill the gap, we combine two strands of the literature: that concerned with public administration and public finance, shedding light on the economic and financial determinants of local budget transparency, and that on the political economy of transparency (principal agent theory), covering the relationships among politicians and between politicians and voters. Our main hypothesis states that variables describing residents’ capacity have a greater impact on local budget transparency than variables indicating the institutional capacity of local government units (LGUs). Additional subhypotheses test the impact of each variable analysed on local budget transparency. We address the determinants of local budget transparency in Croatia, measured by the number of key local budget documents published on the LGUs’ websites. By using a data set of 128 cities and 428 municipalities over the 2015-2017 period and by applying panel data analysis based on Poisson and negative binomial distribution, we test our main hypothesis and sub-hypotheses empirically. We measure different characteristics of institutional and residents’ capacity for each LGU. Age, education and ideology of the mayor/municipality head, political competition indicators, number of employees, current budget revenues and direct debt per capita have been used as a measure of the institutional capacity of LGU. Residents’ capacity in each LGU has been measured through the numbers of citizens and their average age as well as by average income per capita. The most important determinant of local budget transparency is average residents' income per capita at both city and municipality level. The results are in line with most previous research results in fiscally decentralised countries. In the context of a fiscally centralised country with numerous small LGUs, most of whom have low administrative and fiscal capacity, this has a theoretical rationale in the legitimacy and principal-agent theory (opportunistic motives of the incumbent). The result is robust and significant, but because of the various other results that change between city and municipality levels (e.g. ideology and political competition), there is a need for further research (both on identifying other determinates and/or methods of analysis). Since in Croatia the fiscal capacity of a LGU depends heavily on the income of its residents, units with higher per capita incomes in many cases have also higher budget revenues allowing them to engage more employees and resources. In addition, residents’ incomes might be also positively associated with local budget transparency because of higher citizen demand for such transparency. Residents with higher incomes expect more public services and have more access to and experience in using the Internet, and will thus typically demand more budget information on the LGUs’ websites.

Keywords: budget transparency, count data, Croatia, local government, political economy

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Authors: Ignitia Motjolopane

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in economies by contributing to economic growth and employment. In the fourth industrial revolution, the convergence of technologies and the changing nature of work created pressures on economies globally. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) may support SMEs in exploring, exploiting, and transforming business models to align with their growth aspirations. SMEs' growth aspirations fall into four categories: subsistence, income, growth, and speculative. Subsistence-oriented firms focus on meeting basic financial obligations and show less motivation for business model innovation. SMEs focused on income, growth, and speculation are more likely to pursue business model innovation to support growth strategies. SMEs' strategic goals link to distinct business model innovation paths depending on whether SMEs are starting a new business, pursuing growth, or seeking profitability. Integrating generative artificial intelligence in start-up SME business model innovation enhances value creation, user-oriented innovation, and SMEs' ability to adapt to dynamic changes in the business environment. The existing literature may lack comprehensive frameworks and guidelines for effectively integrating generative AI in start-up reiterative business model innovation paths. This paper examines start-up business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence. A theoretical approach is used to examine start-up-focused SME reiterative business model innovation path with generative AI. Articulating how generative AI may be used to support SMEs to systematically and cyclically build the business model covering most or all business model components and analyse and test the BM's viability throughout the process. As such, the paper explores generative AI usage in market exploration. Moreover, market exploration poses unique challenges for start-ups compared to established companies due to a lack of extensive customer data, sales history, and market knowledge. Furthermore, the paper examines the use of generative AI in developing and testing viable value propositions and business models. In addition, the paper looks into identifying and selecting partners with generative AI support. Selecting the right partners is crucial for start-ups and may significantly impact success. The paper will examine generative AI usage in choosing the right information technology, funding process, revenue model determination, and stress testing business models. Stress testing business models validate strong and weak points by applying scenarios and evaluating the robustness of individual business model components and the interrelation between components. Thus, the stress testing business model may address these uncertainties, as misalignment between an organisation and its environment has been recognised as the leading cause of company failure. Generative AI may be used to generate business model stress-testing scenarios. The paper is expected to make a theoretical and practical contribution to theory and approaches in crafting a robust business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence in start-up SMEs.

Keywords: business models, innovation, generative AI, small medium enterprises

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Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Leila Mrabet, Taoufik Khalfallah

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Background and aims: School accidents are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among pupils and students. Indeed, they may induce an elevated number of lost school days, heavy emotional and physical disabilities, and financial costs on the victims and their families. This study aims to evaluate the annual incidence of school accidents in the central Tunisian governorate of Mahdia and to identify the epidemiological profile of victims and risk factors of these accidents. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted over the period of 5 school years, focusing on school accidents that occurred in public educational institutions (primary, basic, secondary and university) in the governorate of Mahdia (area = 2 966 km² and number of inhabitants in 2014 = 410 812). All accidents declared near the only official insurance of this type of injuries (MASU: Mutual School and University Accidents), and initially taken in charge at the University Hospital of Mahdia were included. Data was collected from the MASU reporting forms and the medical records of emergency and other specialized hospital departments. Results: With 3248 identified victims, the annual incidence of school accidents was equal to 0.69 per 100 pupils and students per year. The average age of victims was 14.51 ± 0.059 years and the sex ratio was 1.58. Pupils aged between 12 and 15 years, were concerned by 46.7% of the identified accidents. The practice of sports was the most relevant circumstances of these accidents (76.2 %). In 56.58 % of cases, falls were the leading mechanism. Bruises and fractures were the most frequent lesions (32.43 % and 30.51 %). Serious school accidents were noted in 28% of cases with hospitalization in 2.27 % of them. The average lost school days, was 12.23±1.73 days. Accidents occurring during sports or leisure activities were significantly more serious (p= 0.021). Furthermore, the frequency of hospitalization was significantly higher among boys (2.81% vs. 1.43%; p= 0.035), students ≤11 years (p= 0.008), and following crush trauma (p= 0.000). In addition, the surgical interventions were statistically more frequent among male victims (p=0.00), accidents occurring during physical education sessions (p=0.000); those associated to falls (p=0.000) and to crushes mechanisms (p=0.002), and injuries affecting lower limbs (p=0.000). Following this Multi-varied analysis concluded that the severity of school accident is correlated to the activity practiced during the trauma and the geographical location of the school. Conclusion: Children and adolescents are one of the most vulnerable groups against incidents with the risk of permanent disability, mainly related to the perturbation of the growth process and physiological limitations. Our five-year study, objectified a real elevate incidence of school accident among children and adolescents, with a considerable rate of severe injuries. In any community, the promotion of adolescents and children’s health is an important indicator of the public health level. Thus, it’s important to develop a multidisciplinary prevention strategy of school accident, based on safety and security rules and adapted to the specificity of our context.

Keywords: children and adolescents, children health, injuries and disability, school accident

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Authors: Madison Hall

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The Assisted Colonization of Polar Bears to Antarctica requires a careful analysis of treaties to understand existing legal barriers to Ursus maritimus transport and movement. An absence of land-based migration routes prevent polar bears from accessing southern polar regions on their own. This lack of access is compounded by current treaties which limit human intervention and assistance to ford these physical and legal barriers. In a time of massive planetary extinctions, Assisted Colonization posits that certain endangered species may be prime candidates for relocation to hospitable environments to which they have never previously had access. By analyzing existing treaties, this paper will examine how polar bears are limited in movement by humankind’s legal barriers. International treaties may be considered codified reflections of anthropocentric values of the best knowledge and understanding of an identified problem at a set point in time, as understood through the human lens. Even as human social values and scientific insights evolve, so too must treaties evolve which specify legal frameworks and structures impacting keystone species and related biomes. Due to costs and other myriad difficulties, only a very select number of species will be given this opportunity. While some species move into new regions and are then deemed invasive, Assisted Colonization considers that some assistance may be mandated due to the nature of humankind’s role in climate change. This moral question and ethical imperative against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, drives the question forward; what is the potential for successfully relocating a select handful of charismatic and ecologically important life forms? Is it possible to reimagine a different, but balanced Antarctic ecosystem? Listed as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a result of the ongoing loss of critical habitat by melting sea ice, polar bears have limited options for long term survival in the wild. Our current regime for safeguarding animals facing extinction frequently utilizes zoos and their breeding programs, to keep alive the genetic diversity of the species until some future time when reintroduction, somewhere, may be attempted. By exploring the potential for polar bears to be relocated to Antarctica, we must analyze the complex ethical, legal, political, financial, and biological realms, which are the backdrop to framing all questions in this arena. Can we do it? Should we do it? By utilizing an environmental ethics perspective, we propose that the Ecological Commons of the Arctic and Antarctic should not be viewed solely through the lens of human resource management needs. From this perspective, polar bears do not need our permission, they need our assistance. Antarctica therefore represents a second, if imperfect chance, to buy time for polar bears, in a world where polar regimes, not yet fully understood, are themselves quickly changing as a result of climate change.

Keywords: polar bear, climate change, environmental ethics, Arctic, Antarctica, assisted colonization, treaty

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Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

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Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

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Authors: Jane E. Hill

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Sexual, physical, or emotional abuses are behaviors used by one person in a relationship or within a family unit to control the other person. Physical abuse can consist of, but not limited to hitting, pushing, and shoving. Sexual abuse is unwanted or forced sexual activity on a person without their consent. Abusive behaviors include intimidation, manipulation, humiliation, isolation, frightening, terrorizing, coercing, threatening, blaming, hurting, injuring, or wounding another individual. Although emotional, psychological and financial abuses are not criminal behaviors, they are forms of abuse and can leave emotional scars on their victim. The purpose of this literature review research was to examine characteristics of female offenders, past abuse, and pathways to offending. The question that guided this research: does past abuse influence recidivism? The theoretical foundation used was relational theory by Jean Baker Miller. One common feature of female offenders is abuse (sexual, physical, or verbal). Abuse can cause mental illnesses and substance abuse. The abuse does not directly affect the women's recidivism. However, results indicated the psychological and maladaptive behaviors as a result of the abuse did contribute to indirect pathways to continue offending. The female offenders’ symptoms of ongoing depression, anxiety, and engaging in substance abuse (self medicating) did lead to the women's incarceration. Using the childhood victimization model as the treatment approach for women's mental illness and substance abuse disorders that were a result from history of child abuse have shown success. With that in mind, if issues surrounding early victimization are not addressed, then the women offenders may not recover from their mental illness or addiction and are at a higher risk of reoffending. However, if the women are not emotionally ready to engage in the treatment process, then it should not be forced onto them because it may cause harm (targeting prior traumatic experiences). Social capital is family support and sources that assist in helping the individual with education, employment opportunities that can lead to success. Human capital refers to internal knowledge, skills, and capacities that help the individual act in new and appropriate ways. The lack of human and social capital is common among female offenders, which leads to extreme poverty and economic marginalization, more often in frequent numbers than men. In addition, the changes in welfare reform have exacerbated women’s difficulties in gaining adequate-paying jobs to support themselves and their children that have contributed to female offenders reoffending. With that in mind, one way to lower the risk factor of female offenders from reoffending is to provide them with educational and vocational training, enhance their self-efficacy, and teach them appropriate coping skills and life skills. Furthermore, it is important to strengthen family bonds and support. Having a supportive family relationship was a statistically significant protective factor for women offenders.

Keywords: characteristics, childhood victimization model, female offenders, treatment

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Authors: Urom Scholastica Mgbo, Ifeanyichukwu, Vivian, Anaba, Uchemadu Martins, Arusiaba, Nelson Chijioke

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The study was investigated to determine the growth performance , haematological and serum biochemistry of broiler fed graded levels of cocoyam (Xanthosoma sagittifolium). One hundred and twenty (120) day old broiler chicks of Anak strain were used for the study. The birds were randomly divided into 4 treatment groups of 30 birds per group, and each group was further divided into 3 replicates of 10 birds per replicate in group. Cooked cocoyam was used to formulate diets at inclusion levels of 0.00% for T1 (control), while T2, T3 and T4 contained 10.00%, 20.00% and 30.00% inclusion of cocoyam in partial replacement of maize in a Completely Randomized Design (CRD). At the end of the research, the haematological indices of broiler showed that packed cell volume (PCV) of birds fed diets 1(42.26%) and 3 (42.42%) were significantly (p<0.05) higher than birds fed diets 2 (39.72%) and 4 (38.78%).The Haemoglobin (Hb) of birds fed diets 3 (12.58g/dl) and 4 (12.26g/dl) were significantly (p<0.05) higher than birds fed diets 1 (11.60g/dl) and 2 (11.42g/dl). The values of the white blood cell (WBC) of the broiler chickens placed on cocoyam diet increased significantly (P<0.05) compared with the values obtained in the control (T1) . The serum protein value for birds fed diet I (5.45g/dl) were statistically (P>0.05) similar to those fed diets 2 (5.10g/dl) and 3 (5.38g/dl) but differ significantly (P<0.05) from diet 4 (4.97g/dl) which had the least protein value. Final weight of the birds showed that diet 4 (2370.85g) had the highest (P<0.05) value which was followed closely by diet 3 (2225.55g), while birds fed diets 1 (2165.70g) and diet 2 (2145.00g) recorded the least values Similar pattern was observed in the weight gain of the birds. Birds fed diet 4 (2270.30g) had higher (P<0.05) value, followed by birds on diet 3 (2125.45g), while birds fed diet 1 (2065.15g) and 2 (2044.90g) had the least values.. This study showed that birds fed diet 3 (50.60g) and diet 4 (54.05g) gave significantly (P<0.05) higher weight than the control diet (49.17g). There was significant (P<0.05) difference among the treatments for feed conversion ratio (FCR), were birds fed diet 4 (1.74) performed better, having the least feed conversion ratio. Economics of broiler chickens showed that Cost/kg of feed favored diet 4 (₦158.65) followed by diets 3 (₦165.95), 2 (₦178.52) and control diet 1 (₦197.14). From the result, the higher weight recorded in T4 4 showed that cocoyam meal can successfully replace maize up to 30% in the diet of broiler chickens. The low cost recorded in cocoyam based diets showed that the diets were more economical and beneficial compared to control diet 1. Therefore, feeding diet 4 (30%) cocoyam meal as replacement of maize in broiler chickens is recommended.

Keywords: cocoyam, growth, heamatology, serum biochemistry

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