Search results for: transport demand

Authors: Amir Andria Gad Shehata

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: spare part, spare part inventory, inventory model, optimization, maintenanceneural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Ghassan Al-Dulaimi

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This paper studied the biochemical parameter (BOD5) and (DO) for the Thames River (Canada-Ontario). Water samples have been collected from Thames River along different points between Chatham to Woodstock and were analysed for various water quality parameters during the low flow season (April). The study involves the application of the stream water quality model QUAL2K model to simulate and predict the dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) profiles for Thames River in a stretch of 251 kilometers. The model output showed that DO in the entire river was within the limit of not less than 4 mg/L. For Carbonaceous Biochemical Oxygen Demand CBOD, the entire river may be divided into two main reaches; the first one is extended from Chatham City (0 km) to London (150 km) and has a CBOD concentration of 2 mg/L, and the second reach has CBOD range (2–4) mg/L in which begins from London city and extend to near Woodstock city (73km).

Keywords: biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, Thames river, QUAL2K model

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Authors: Chinedu Ejike

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The United States is now energy self-sufficient due to the production of shale oil reserves. With more than half of it being tapped daily in the United States, these unconventional reserves are massive and provide immense potential for future energy demands. Drilling horizontal wells and fracking are the primary methods for developing these reserves. Regrettably, recovery efficiency is rarely greater than 10%. As a result, optimizing recuperation offers a significant benefit. Huff and puff gas flooding and cyclic gas injection have all been demonstrated to be more successful than tapping the remaining oil in place. Methane, nitrogen, and carbon (IV) oxide, among other high-pressure gases, can be injected. Operators use Darcy's law to assess a reservoir's productive capacity, but they are unaware that the law may not apply to shale oil reserves. This is due to the fact that, unlike pressure differences alone, diffusion, concentration, and gas selection all play a role in the flow of gas injected into the wellbore. The reservoir drainage and oil sweep efficiency rates are determined by the transport method. This research assesses the parameters that influence the gas injection transport mechanism. Understanding the process causing these factors could accelerate recovery by two to three times, according to peer-reviewed studies and effective field testing.

Keywords: enhanced oil recovery, gas injection, shale oil, transport mechanism, unconventional reserve

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Authors: Patsara Sirikamonsin

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The purposes of this study were I) to study development guidelines of community product which was basket handicraft-bag of Ang Thong province; II) to study consumer demand for the community of basket handicraft-bag products of Ang Thong province. Data were collected via group interview of the community of basket handicraft-bag and consumer in order to obtain information related to product development guidelines in line with consumer demand. The study revealed that development guidelines of community product which was basket handicraft-bag of Ang Thong province caused by the demand of consumers changed by the era which made community of basket handicraft-bag products of Ang Thong province might develop community products to be novel, stylish and accessible. The consumer demand for the product came from the need to consume goods that are like local symbols. Most of them were foreigners and tourists. The advantage of this research was that it would lead to policy implementation and lead to the development of basket handicraft-bag community products of Ang Thong to meet the needs of consumers.

Keywords: community product, product development, basket handicraft-bag, business research

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Authors: Sanghamitra Roy

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In recent times, India has experienced the phenomenal rise in the number of registered vehicles and vehicular trips, particularly intra-city trips in most of its urban areas. The increase in vehicle ownership and use have increased parking demand immensely and accommodating the same is now a matter of big concern. Most cities do not have adequate off-street parking facilities thus forcing people to park on the streets. This has resulted in decreased carrying capacity, decreased traffic speed, increased congestion, and increased environmental problems. While integrated multi-modal transportation system is the answer to such problems, parking issues will continue to exist. In Kolkata, only 6.4% land is devoted for roads. The consequences of this huge crunch in road spaces coupled with increased parking demand are severe particularly in the CBD and major commercial areas, making the role of off-street parking facilities in Kolkata even more critical. To meaningfully address parking issues, it is important to identify the factors that influence parking demand so that it can be assessed and comprehensive parking policies and plans for the city can be formulated. This paper aims at identifying the factors that contribute towards parking demand for offices in Kolkata and their degree of correlation with parking demand. The study is limited to home-to-work trips located within Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) where parking related issues are most pronounced. The data for the study is collected through personal interviews, questionnaires and direct observations from offices across the wards of KMC. SPSS is used for classification of the data and analyses of the same. The findings of this study will help in re-assessment of the parking requirements specified in The Kolkata Municipal Corporation Building Rules as a step towards alleviating parking related issues in the city.

Keywords: building rules, office spaces, parking demand, urbanization

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Authors: Christo Nicholls

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The National Electricity Grid (NEG) in South Africa has been under strain for the last five years. This overburden of the NEG led Eskom (the State-Owned Entity responsible for the NEG) to implement a blunt methodology to assist them in reducing the maximum demand (MD) on the NEG, when required, called Loadshedding. The challenge of this methodology is that not only does it lead to immense technical issues with the distribution network equipment, e.g., transformers, due to the frequent abrupt off and on switching, it also has a broader negative fiscal impact on the distributors, as their key consumers (commercial & industrial) are now grid defecting due to the lack of Electricity Security Provision (ESP). This paper provides a pragmatic alternative methodology utilizing specific functionalities embedded within direct-connect single and three-phase Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Solutions deployed within the distribution network, in conjunction with a Multi-Agent Systems Based AI implementation focused on Automated Negotiation Peer-2-Peer trading. The results of this research clearly illustrate, not only does methodology provide a factual percentage contribution towards the NEG MD at the point of consideration, it also allows the distributor to leverage the real-time MD data from key consumers to activate complex, yet impact-measurable Demand Response (DR) programs.

Keywords: AI, AMI, demand response, multi-agent

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: U. Farooq, A. Samson, V. Thangadurai, R. Edwards

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In recent years, an impressive research has been conducted to introduce the solid-state electrolytes for the future energy storage devices like Li-ion batteries more specifically. In this work we tried to prepare a ceramic electrolyte (Li6.5 La2.5 Ba0.5 Nb Zr O12(LLBNZO)) and sintered the pallets of as-prepared material at elevated temperature like 1050, 1100, 1150 and 1200 °C. The objective to carry out this research was to observe the effect of temperature on porosity, density and transport properties of materials. Preliminary results suggest that the material sintered at higher temperature could show enhanced performance in terms of fast ionic transport. This enhancement in performance can be attributed to low porosity of materials which is result of high temperature sintering.

Keywords: solid state battery, electrolyte, garnet structures, Li-ion battery

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Authors: Congping Lin

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Intracellular transport in fungi has a number of important roles in, e.g., filamentous fungal growth and cellular metabolism. Two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport are motor-driven trafficking along microtubules (MTs) and diffusion. Mathematical modelling has been actively developed to understand such intracellular transport and provide unique insight into cellular complexity. Based on live-cell imaging data in Ustilago hyphal cells, probabilistic models have been developed to study mechanism underlying spatial organization of molecular motors and organelles. In particular, anther mechanism - stochastic motility of dynein motors along MTs has been found to contribute to half of its accumulation at hyphal tip in order to support early endosome (EE) recycling. The EE trafficking not only facilitates the directed motion of peroxisomes but also enhances their diffusive motion. Considering the importance of spatial organization of early endosomes in supporting peroxisome movement, computational and experimental approaches have been combined to a whole-cell level. Results from this interdisciplinary study promise insights into requirements for other membrane trafficking systems (e.g., in neurons), but also may inform future 'synthetic biology' studies.

Keywords: intracellular transport, stochastic process, molecular motors, spatial organization

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Authors: Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim, Taehyun Kim

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Human life, activity, and culture depend on the wider environment. Cities offer economic opportunities for goods and services, but cannot exist in environments without food, energy, and water supply. Technological innovation in energy supply and transport speeds up the expansion of urban areas and the physical separation from agricultural land. As a result, division of urban agricultural areas causes more energy demand for food and goods transport between the regions. As the energy resources are leaking all over the world, the impact on the environment crossing the boundaries of cities is also growing. While advances in energy and other technologies can reduce the environmental impact of consumption, there is still a gap between energy supply and demand by current technology, even in technically advanced countries. Therefore, reducing energy demand is more realistic than relying solely on the development of technology for sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to introduce the application of carbon footprint assessment in fields of urban planning and geography. In urban studies, carbon footprint has been assessed at different geographical scales, such as nation, city, region, household, and individual. Carbon footprint assessment for a nation and a city is available by using national or city level statistics of energy consumption categories. By means of carbon footprint calculation, it is possible to compare the ecological capacity and deficit among nations and cities. Carbon footprint also offers great insight on the geographical distribution of carbon intensity at a regional level in the agricultural field. The study shows the background of carbon footprint applications in urban planning and geography by case studies such as figuring out sustainable land-use measures in urban planning and geography. For micro level, footprint quiz or survey can be adapted to measure household and individual carbon footprint. For example, first case study collected carbon footprint data from the survey measuring home energy use and travel behavior of 2,064 households in eight cities in Gyeonggi-do, Korea. Second case study analyzed the effects of the net and gross population densities on carbon footprint of residents at an intra-urban scale in the capital city of Seoul, Korea. In this study, the individual carbon footprint of residents was calculated by converting the carbon intensities of home and travel fossil fuel use of respondents to the unit of metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) by multiplying the conversion factors equivalent to the carbon intensities of each energy source, such as electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. Carbon footprint is an important concept not only for reducing climate change but also for sustainable development. As seen in case studies carbon footprint may be measured and applied in various spatial units, including but not limited to countries and regions. These examples may provide new perspectives on carbon footprint application in planning and geography. In addition, additional concerns for consumption of food, goods, and services can be included in carbon footprint calculation in the area of urban planning and geography.

Keywords: carbon footprint, case study, geography, urban planning

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: Kiatkulchai Jitt-Aer, Graham Wall, Dylan Jones

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As a result of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, logistics applied to disaster relief operations has received great attention in the humanitarian sector. As learned from such disaster, preparing and responding to the aspect of delivering essential items from distribution centres to affected locations are of the importance for relief operations as the nature of disasters is uncertain especially in suffering figures, which are normally proportional to quantity of supplies. Thus, this study proposes a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for humanitarian logistics by integrating Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). The GIS is utilised for acquiring demands simulated from the tsunami flooding model of the affected area in the first stage, and visualising the simulation solutions in the last stage. While CVRP in this study encompasses designing the relief routes of a set of homogeneous vehicles from a relief centre to a set of geographically distributed evacuation points in which their demands are estimated by using both simulation and randomisation techniques. The CVRP is modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem where both total travelling distance and total transport resources used are minimized, while demand-cost efficiency of each route is maximized in order to determine route priority. As the model is a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, the Clarke and Wright Saving heuristics is proposed to solve the problem for the near-optimal solutions. The real-case instances in the coastal area of Phuket, Thailand are studied to perform the SDSS that allows a decision maker to visually analyse the simulation scenarios through different decision factors.

Keywords: demand simulation, humanitarian logistics, geographical information systems, relief operations, capacitated vehicle routing problem

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Authors: Merouane Boudjerda, Bénina Touaibia, Mustapha K Mihoubi

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In Algeria, water resources play a crucial role in economic development. But over the last decades, they are relatively limited and gradually decreasing to the detriment of agriculture. The agricultural irrigation is the primary water consuming sector followed by the domestic and industrial sectors. The research presented in this paper focuses on the optimization of irrigation water demand. Dynamic Programming-Neural Network (DPNN) method is applied to investigate reservoir optimization. The optimal operation rule is formulated to minimize the gap between water release and water irrigation demand. As a case study, Boukerdane dam’s reservoir system in North of Algeria has been selected to examine our proposed optimization model. The application of DPNN method allowed increasing the satisfaction rate (SR) from 34% to 60%. In addition, the operation rule generated showed more reliable and resilience operation for the examined case study.

Keywords: water management, agricultural demand, Boukerdane dam, dynamic programming, artificial neural network

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Authors: Jerzy Merkisz, Piotr Lijewski, Pawel Fuc, Maciej Siedlecki, Andrzej Ziolkowski, Sylwester Weymann

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The paper discusses the problem of load transport using farm tractors and road tractor units. This type of carriage of goods is often done with farm vehicles. The tests were performed with the PEMS equipment (Portable Emission Measurement System) under actual traffic conditions. The vehicles carried a load of 20000 kg. This research method is one of the most desired because it provides reliable information on the actual vehicle emissions and fuel consumption (carbon balance method). For the tests, a route was selected that simulated a trip from a small town to a food-processing facility located in a city. The analysis of the obtained results gave a clear answer as to what vehicles need to be used for the carriage of this type of cargo in terms of exhaust emissions and fuel consumption.

Keywords: emission, transport, fuel consumption, PEMS

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Authors: Jaeun Park, Daekyoung Kim, Ho Kyoon Chung, Heeyeop Chae

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Quantum dots light-emitting diodes (QD-LEDs) have been considered as the next generation display and lighting devices due to their excellent color purity, photo-stability solution process possibility and good device stability. Currently typical quantum dot light emitting diodes contain organic layers such as PEDOT:PSS and PVK for charge transport layers. To make quantum dot light emitting diodes (QD-LED) more stable, it is required to replace those acidic and relatively unstable organic charge transport layers with inorganic materials. Therefore all inorganic and solution processed quantum dot light emitting diodes can potentially be a solution to stable and cost-effective display devices. We studied solution processed NiO films to replace organic charge transport layers that are required for stable all-inorganic based light emitting diodes. The transition metal oxides can be made by various vacuum and solution processes, but the solution processes are considered more cost-effective than vacuum processes. In this work we investigated solution processed NiOx for a hole transport layer (HTL). NiOx, has valence band energy levels of 5.3eV and they are easy to make sol-gel solutions. Water vapor oxidation process was developed and applied to solution processed all-inorganic QD-LED. Turn-on voltage, luminance and current efficiency of QD in this work were 5V, 1800Cd/m2 and 0.5Cd/A, respectively.

Keywords: QD-LED, metal oxide solution, NiO, all-inorganic QD-LED device

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Authors: M. Imran Hossen Khan, M. Mahiuddin, M. A. Karim

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Drying is a food processing technique where simultaneous heat and mass transfer take place from surface to the center of the sample. Deformation of food materials during drying is a common physical phenomenon which affects the textural quality and taste of the dried product. Most of the plant-based food materials are porous and hygroscopic in nature that contains about 80-90% water in different cellular environments: intercellular environment and intracellular environment. Transport of this cellular water has a significant effect on material deformation during drying. However, understanding of the scale of deformation is very complex due to diverse nature and structural heterogeneity of food material. Knowledge about the effect of transport of cellular water on deformation of material during drying is crucial for increasing the energy efficiency and obtaining better quality dried foods. Therefore, the primary aim of this work is to investigate the effect of intracellular water transport on material deformation during drying. In this study, apple tissue was taken for the investigation. The experiment was carried out using 1H-NMR T2 relaxometry with a conventional dryer. The experimental results are consistent with the understanding that transport of intracellular water causes cellular shrinkage associated with the anisotropic deformation of whole apple tissue. Interestingly, it is found that the deformation of apple tissue takes place at different stages of drying rather than deforming at one time. Moreover, it is found that the penetration rate of heat energy together with the pressure gradient between intracellular and intercellular environments is the responsible force to rupture the cell membrane.

Keywords: heat and mass transfer, food material, intracellular water, cell rupture, deformation

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Authors: Nivedita Sharma

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The global demand for fossil fuels is very high, but their use is not sustainable since its reserves are declining. Additionally, fossil fuels are responsible for the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The emission of greenhouse gases from the transport sector can be reduced by substituting fossil fuels by biofuels. Thus, renewable fuels capable of sequestering carbon dioxide are in high demand. Second‐generation biofuels, which require lignocellulosic biomass as a substrate and ultimately producing ethanol, fall largely in this category. Bioethanol is a favorable and near carbon-neutral renewable biofuel leading to reduction in tailpipe pollutant emission and improving the ambient air quality. Lignocellulose consists of three main components: cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin which can be converted to ethanol with the help of microbial enzymes. Enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass in 1st step is considered as the most efficient and least polluting methods for generating fermentable hexose and pentose sugars which subsequently are fermented to power alcohol by yeasts in 2nd step of the process. In the present technology, a complete bioconversion process i.e. potential hydrolytic enzymes i.e. cellulase and xylanase producing microorganisms have been isolated from different niches, screened for enzyme production, identified using phenotyping and genotyping, enzyme production, purification and application of enzymes for saccharification of different lignocellulosic biomass followed by fermentation of hydrolysate to ethanol with high yield is to be presented in detail.

Keywords: cellulase, xylanase, lignocellulose, bioethanol, microbial enzymes

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Authors: Hee Jin Kang

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Despite numerous studies on the reserves and availability of natural gas hydrates, the technology of transporting natural gas hydrates in large quantities to sea has not been put into practical use. Several natural gas hydrate transport technologies presented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are under preparation for commercialization. Among them, NGH tank container concept modularized transportation unit to prevent sintering effect during sea transportation. The natural gas hydrate can be vaporized in a certain part during the transportation. Unprocessed BOG increases the pressure inside the tank. Also, there is a risk of fire if you export the BOG out of the tank without proper handling. Therefore, in this study, we have studied the concept of technology to properly process BOG to modularize natural gas hydrate and to transport it to sea for long distance. The study is expected to contribute to the practical use of NGH tank container, which is a modular transport concept proposed to solve the sintering problem that occurs when transporting natural gas hydrate in the form of bulk cargo.

Keywords: Natural gas hydrate, tank container, marine transportation, boil-off gas

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Authors: Mehdi Naserian, Mohammad Jooshaki, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mohammad Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, Ashknaz Oraee

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In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a recent solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: communication infrastructure, smart meters, power systems, HVAC system, residential HVAC systems

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Authors: Tannia Vindel, Carlos Mejia, Damaris Araujo, Carlos Velasquez, Darlin Trejo

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The DWDM (Dense Wavelenght Division Multiplexing) is in constant growth around the world by consumer demand to meet their needs. Since its inception in this operation arises the need for a system which enable us to expand the communication of an entire nation to improve the computing trends of their societies according to their customs and geographical location. The Honduran Company of Telecommunications (HONDUTEL), provides the internet services and data transport technology with a PDH and SDH, which represents in the Republic of Honduras C. A., the option of viability for the consumer in terms of purchase value and its ease of acquisition; but does not have the efficiency in terms of technological advance and represents an obstacle that limits the long-term socio-economic development in comparison with other countries in the region and to be able to establish a competition between telecommunications companies that are engaged in this heading. For that reason we propose to establish a new technological trend implemented in Europe and that is applied in our country that allows us to provide a data transfer in broadband as it is DWDM, in this way we will have a stable service and quality that will allow us to compete in this globalized world, and that must be replaced by one that would provide a better service and which must be in the forefront. Once implemented the DWDM is build upon the existing resources, such as the equipment used, and you will be given life to a new stage providing a business image to the Republic of Honduras C,A, as a nation, to ensure the data transport and broadband internet to a meaningful relationship. Same benefits in the first instance to existing customers and to all the institutions were bidden to these public and private need of such services.

Keywords: demultiplexers, light detectors, multiplexers, optical amplifiers, optical fibers, PDH, SDH

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Authors: Esha Saha, Pradip Kumar Ray

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A hospital inventory comprises of a large number and great variety of items for the proper treatment and care of patients, such as pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, surgical items, etc. Improper management of these items, i.e. stockouts, may lead to delay in treatment or other fatal consequences, even death of the patient. So, generally the hospitals tend to overstock items to avoid the risk of stockout which leads to unnecessary investment of money, difficulty in storing, more expiration and wastage, etc. Thus, in such challenging environment, it is necessary for hospitals to follow an inventory policy considering the stochasticity of demand in a hospital. Statistical analysis captures the correlation of patient condition based on bed occupancy with the patient demand which changes stochastically. Due to the dependency on bed occupancy, the markov model is developed that helps to map the changes in demand of hospital inventory based on the changes in the patient condition represented by the movements of bed occupancy states (acute care state, rehabilitative state and long-care state) during the length-of-stay of patient in a hospital. An inventory policy is developed for a hospital based on the fulfillment of patient demand with the objective of minimizing the frequency and quantity of placement of orders of inventoried items. The analytical structure of the model based on probability calculation is provided to show the optimal inventory-related decisions. A case-study is illustrated in this paper for the development of hospital inventory model based on patient demand for multiple inpatient pharmaceutical items. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of inventory-related parameters on the developed optimal inventory policy. Therefore, the developed model and solution approach may help the hospital managers and pharmacists in managing the hospital inventory in case of stochastic demand of inpatient pharmaceutical items.

Keywords: bed occupancy, hospital inventory, markov model, patient condition, pharmaceutical items

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Authors: P. G. Siddheshwar, T. N. Sakshath

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In the paper we make linear and non-linear stability analyses of Rayleigh-Bénard convection of a Newtonian nanoliquid in a rotating medium (called as Rayleigh-Bénard-Taylor convection). Rigid-rigid isothermal boundaries are considered for investigation. Khanafer-Vafai-Lightstone single phase model is used for studying instabilities in nanoliquids. Various thermophysical properties of nanoliquid are obtained using phenomenological laws and mixture theory. The eigen boundary value problem is solved for the Rayleigh number using an analytical method by considering trigonometric eigen functions. We observe that the critical nanoliquid Rayleigh number is less than that of the base liquid. Thus the onset of convection is advanced due to the addition of nanoparticles. So, increase in volume fraction leads to advanced onset and thereby increase in heat transport. The amplitudes of convective modes required for estimating the heat transport are determined analytically. The tri-modal standard Lorenz model is derived for the steady state assuming small scale convective motions. The effect of rotation on the onset of convection and on heat transport is investigated and depicted graphically. It is observed that the onset of convection is delayed due to rotation and hence leads to decrease in heat transport. Hence, rotation has a stabilizing effect on the system. This is due to the fact that the energy of the system is used to create the component V. We observe that the amount of heat transport is less in the case of rigid-rigid isothermal boundaries compared to free-free isothermal boundaries.

Keywords: nanoliquid, rigid-rigid, rotation, single phase

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Authors: Tamara Slišković, Tomislav Sekur

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This manuscript examines factors that affect demand and supply of the housing market in Croatia. The period from the beginning of this century, until 2008, was characterized by a strong expansion of construction, housing and real estate market in general. Demand for residential units was expanding, and this was supported by favorable lending conditions of banks. Indicators on the supply side, such as the number of newly built houses and the construction volume index were also increasing. Rapid growth of demand, along with the somewhat slower supply growth, led to the situation in which new apartments were sold before the completion of residential buildings. This resulted in a rise of housing price which was indication of a clear link between the housing prices with the supply and demand in the housing market. However, after 2008 general economic conditions in Croatia worsened and demand for housing has fallen dramatically, while supply descended at much slower pace. Given that there is a gap between supply and demand, it can be concluded that the housing market in Croatia is in imbalance. Such trend is accompanied by a relatively small decrease in housing price. The final result of such movements is the large number of unsold housing units at relatively high price levels. For this reason, it can be argued that housing prices are sticky and that, consequently, the price level in the aftermath of a crisis does not correspond to the discrepancy between supply and demand on the Croatian housing market. The degree of rigidity of the housing price can be determined by inclusion of the housing price as the explanatory variable in the housing demand function. Other independent variables are demographic variable (e.g. the number of households), the interest rate on housing loans, households' disposable income and rent. The equilibrium price is reached when the demand for housing equals its supply, and the speed of adjustment of actual prices to equilibrium prices reveals the extent to which the prices are rigid. The latter requires inclusion of the housing prices with time lag as an independent variable in estimating demand function. We also observe the supply side of the housing market, in order to explain to what extent housing prices explain the movement of new construction activity, and other variables that describe the supply. In this context, we test whether new construction on the Croatian market is dependent on current prices or prices with a time lag. Number of dwellings is used to approximate new construction (flow variable), while the housing prices (current or lagged), quantity of dwellings in the previous period (stock variable) and a series of costs related to new construction are independent variables. We conclude that the key reason for the imbalance in the Croatian housing market should be sought in the relative relationship of price elasticities of supply and demand.

Keywords: Croatian housing market, economic crisis, housing prices, supply imbalance, demand imbalance

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Authors: Ayodele Adekunle Faiyetole, Olumide Olawale Jegede

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This paper presents the experimental design and needs justifications for a localized intelligent parking system (L-IPS), ideal for quasi-close communities with increasing vehicular volume that depends on limited or constant parking facilities. For a constant supply in parking facilities, the demand for an increasing vehicular volume could lead to poor time conservation or extended travel time, traffic congestion or impeded mobility, and safety issues. Increased negative environmental and economic externalities are other associated and consequent downsides of disparities in demand and supply. This L-IPS is designed using a microcontroller, ultrasonic sensors, LED indicators, such that the current status, in terms of parking spots availability, can be known from the main entrance to the community or a parking zone on a LCD screen. As an advanced traffic management system (ATMS), the L-IPS is designed to resolve aspects of infrastructure-to-driver (I2D) communication and parking detection issues. Thus, this L-IPS can act as a timesaver for users by helping them know the availability of parking spots. Providing on-time, informed routing, to a next preference or seamless moving to berth on the available spot on a proximate facility as the case may be. Its use could also increase safety and increase mobility, and fuel savings and costs, therefore, reducing negative environmental and economic externalities due to transportation systems.

Keywords: intelligent parking systems, localized intelligent parking system, intelligent transport systems, advanced traffic management systems, infrastructure-to-drivers communication

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Authors: Lin Dong, Fei Shi

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Based on the railway network and the principles of space syntax, the study attempts to reconstruct the spatial relationship of the passenger network connections from space and time perspective. According to the travel time data of main stations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration obtained by the Internet, the topological drawing of railway network under different time sections is constructed. With the comprehensive index composed of connection and integration, the accessibility and network operation efficiency of the railway network in different time periods is calculated, while the fairness of the network is analyzed by the fairness indicators constructed with the integration and location entropy from the perspective of horizontal and vertical fairness respectively. From the analysis of the efficiency and fairness of the railway passenger transport network, the study finds: (1) There is a strong regularity in regional system accessibility change; (2) The problems of efficiency and fairness are different in different time periods; (3) The improvement of efficiency will lead to the decline of horizontal fairness to a certain extent, while from the perspective of vertical fairness, the supply-demand situation has changed smoothly with time; (4) The network connection efficiency of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is higher than that of the western regions such as Anqing and Chizhou; (5) The marginalization of Nantong, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Taizhou is obvious. The study explores the application of spatial syntactic theory in regional traffic analysis, in order to provide a reference for the development of urban agglomeration transportation network.

Keywords: spatial syntax, the Yangtze River Delta, railway passenger time, efficiency and fairness

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Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

Abstract:

The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

Abstract:

This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

Abstract:

Our increasing reliance on electricity, with inefficient consumption trends, has resulted in several economical and environmental threats. These threats include wasting billions of dollars, draining limited resources, and elevating the impact of climate change. As a solution, the smart grid is emerging as the future power grid, with smart techniques to optimize power consumption and electricity generation. Minimizing the peak power consumption under a fixed delay requirement is a significant problem in the smart grid. In addition, matching demand to supply is a key requirement for the success of the future electricity. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the peak demand under appliances constraints by scheduling power jobs with uniform release dates and deadlines. As the problem is known to be NP-Hard, we propose two versions of a heuristic algorithm for solving this problem. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that our proposed heuristics outperform existing methods by providing a better approximation to the optimal solution. In addition, we consider dynamic pricing methods to minimize the peak load and match demand to supply in the smart grid. Our contribution is the proposal of generic, as well as customized pricing heuristics to minimize the peak demand and match demand with supply. In addition, we propose optimal pricing algorithms that can be used when the maximum deadline period of the power jobs is relatively small. Finally, we provide theoretical analysis and conduct several experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: heuristics, optimization, smart grid, peak demand, power supply

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Authors: Mushfiqul Alam, Kashyapa Narenathreyas

Abstract:

The demand for efficient transonic transport has been growing every day and may turn out to be the most pressed innovation in coming years. Oblique wing configuration was proposed as an alternative to conventional wing configuration for supersonic and transonic passenger aircraft due to its aerodynamic advantages. This paper re-demonstrates the aerodynamic advantages of oblique wing configuration using open source CFD code. The aerodynamic data were generated using Panel Method. Results show that Oblique Wing concept with elliptical wing planform offers a significant reduction in drag at transonic and supersonic speeds and approximately twice the lift distribution compared to conventional operating aircrafts. The paper also presents a preliminary conceptual aircraft sizing which can be used for further experimental analysis.

Keywords: aerodynamics, asymmetric sweep, oblique wing, swing wing

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Authors: Jie Liu, Jinqu Cheng, Qiyuan Peng, Yong Yin

Abstract:

Urban rail transit (URT) plays a significant role in dealing with traffic congestion and environmental problems in cities. However, equipment failure and obstruction of links often lead to URT links’ capacities loss in daily operation. It affects the reliability and transport service quality of URT network seriously. In order to measure the influence of links’ capacities loss on reliability and transport service quality of URT network, passengers are divided into three categories in case of links’ capacities loss. Passengers in category 1 are less affected by the loss of links’ capacities. Their travel is reliable since their travel quality is not significantly reduced. Passengers in category 2 are affected by the loss of links’ capacities heavily. Their travel is not reliable since their travel quality is reduced seriously. However, passengers in category 2 still can travel on URT. Passengers in category 3 can not travel on URT because their travel paths’ passenger flow exceeds capacities. Their travel is not reliable. Thus, the proportion of passengers in category 1 whose travel is reliable is defined as reliability indicator of URT network. The transport service quality of URT network is related to passengers’ travel time, passengers’ transfer times and whether seats are available to passengers. The generalized travel cost is a comprehensive reflection of travel time, transfer times and travel comfort. Therefore, passengers’ average generalized travel cost is used as transport service quality indicator of URT network. The impact of links’ capacities loss on transport service quality of URT network is measured with passengers’ relative average generalized travel cost with and without links’ capacities loss. The proportion of the passengers affected by links and betweenness of links are used to determine the important links in URT network. The stochastic user equilibrium distribution model based on the improved logit model is used to determine passengers’ categories and calculate passengers’ generalized travel cost in case of links’ capacities loss, which is solved with method of successive weighted averages algorithm. The reliability and transport service quality indicators of URT network are calculated with the solution result. Taking Wuhan Metro as a case, the reliability and transport service quality of Wuhan metro network is measured with indicators and method proposed in this paper. The result shows that using the proportion of the passengers affected by links can identify important links effectively which have great influence on reliability and transport service quality of URT network; The important links are mostly connected to transfer stations and the passenger flow of important links is high; With the increase of number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss, the reliability of the network keeps decreasing, the proportion of passengers in category 3 keeps increasing and the proportion of passengers in category 2 increases at first and then decreases; When the number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss increased to a certain level, the decline of transport service quality is weakened.

Keywords: urban rail transit network, reliability, transport service quality, links’ capacities loss, important links

Procedia PDF Downloads 120