Search results for: price discovery

Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Mehravar Javid

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This article delves straight into the fascinating role of dream interpretation in psychotherapy, particularly in the context of trauma and healing. By applying a detailed case study of a 19-year-old Iranian woman who has been undergoing therapy, it can explore to what extent her vivid and symbolic dreams – featuring mermaids, hanging fetuses, and themes of control and domination – serve as a reflection of her innermost fears, unresolved traumas, and struggles with identity and sexuality. Another fact to be highlighted is that the dreams, rich in metaphor and symbolism, offer a unique outlook into the patient's subconscious mind, revealing layers of her psychological state that might otherwise remain obscured and vague. On the other hand, the article examines how the therapist navigates these dreamscapes by utilizing them as a tool to understand and address the patient's deep-seated emotional conflicts, traumatic experiences, and identity issues. By analyzing these dreams, we can demonstrate how such dreams can be a crucial part of the healing process, providing insights that facilitate emotional recovery and self-discovery. This discovery underscores the significance of dreams in psychotherapy, highlighting their potential as a powerful medium for unraveling the complexities of the human psyche and aiding in the journey toward mental health and recovery.

Keywords: dream, interpreting, trauma, healing

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Authors: Alyona Cerfontyne, Levita D'Souza, Lefteris Patlamazoglou

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Unlike adoption and donor-assisted reproduction, misattributed paternity occurring within the context of spontaneous conception and outside of formally recognised practices of having a child remains largely an understudied phenomenon. In adulthood, to discover misattributed paternity, i.e., that the man you call your father is not related to you genetically, can have profound implications for everyone affected. Until the advent of direct-to-consumer DNA testing 20 years ago, such discoveries were relatively rare. Despite the growing number of individuals uncovering their biogenetic paternity through genetic testing, there is very limited research on misattributed paternity from the perspective of adult children affected by it. No research exists on how to support these individuals through counselling post-discovery. Framed as insider action research, this study aimed to explore the perceived psychosocial consequences of misattributed paternity discoveries and coping strategies used by individuals who discover their misattributed paternity status in adulthood. In total, 12 individuals with misattributed paternity participated in semi-structured interviews in July-August 2022. The collected data was analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. The study’s results indicate that discovering misattributed paternity in adulthood can be likened to a watershed moment forever changing the trajectory of one’s life. Psychological experiences consistent with trauma, as well as grief and loss, re-evaluation of close family relationships, reestablishment of one’s identity, as well as experiencing a profound need to belong are the key themes emerging from the analysis of psychosocial experiences. Post-discovery, individuals with misattributed paternity employ a wide range of emotional and problem-focused coping strategies, amongst which seeking connection with those who understand, searching for information on the new biogenetic family and finding new meanings to life are most prominent. The study contributes both to the academic and practical knowledge of experiences of misattributed paternity and highlights the importance of further research on the topic.

Keywords: discovery of misattributed paternity, misattributed paternity, paternal discrepancy, psychosocial consequences, coping

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Golamhassan Ghahramani Aghdam, Pedram Bavili Tabrizi

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The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between accounting information and the value of the companies accepted in Tehran Exchange Market. The dependent variable in this research is the value of a company that is measured by price coefficients, and the independent variables are balance sheet information, profit and loss information, cash flow state information, and profit quality characteristics. The profit quality characteristic index is to be related and to be on-time. This research is an application research, and the research population includes all companies that are active in Tehran exchange market. The number of 194 companies was selected by the systematic method as the statistics sample in the period of 2018-2019. The multi-variable linear regression model was used for the hypotheses test. The results show that there is no relationship between accounting information and companies’ value (stock value) that can be due to the lack of efficiency of the investment market and the inability to use the accounting information by investment market activists.

Keywords: accounting information, company value, profit quality characteristics, price coefficient

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Authors: Baoubadi Atozou, Koffi Akakpo

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Since the decade 2000, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat, and soybeans in biofuel production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Thus, prices for these agricultural products are rising in the world market. These cereals are the most important source of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries members’ population. These countries are highly dependent on imports of most of these products. Thereby, rising prices can have an important impact on import levels and consequently on food security in these countries. This study aims to analyze the interrelationship between the prices of these commodities and their volatilities, and their effects on imports of these agricultural products by each WAEMU ’country member. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the GARCH Multivariate model, and the Granger Causality Test are used in this investigation. The results show that import levels are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes as well as their volatility. In the short term as well as in the long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. There is a positive relationship in general between price volatility. And these volatilities have negative effects on the level of imports. The market characteristics affect food security in these countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. The policies makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

Keywords: price volatility, import of agricultural products, food safety, WAEMU

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Authors: E. A. Ojoko, G. B. Umbugadu

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This study aims at describing the expenditure pattern of households on millet, maize and sorghum across income groups in Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 316 respondents for the study. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was adopted in this study. Results from the study shows that the average household size was five persons with dependency ratio of 52 %, which plays an important role on the household’s expenditure pattern by increasing the household budget share. On the average 82 % were male headed households with an average age of 49 years and 13 years of formal education. Results on expenditure share show that maize has the highest expenditure share of 38 % across the three income groups and that most of the price effects are significantly different from zero at 5 % significant level. This shows that the low price of maize increased its demand as compared to other cereals. Household size and age of household members are major factors affecting the demand for cereals in the study. This agrees with the fact that increased household population (size) will bring about increase consumption. The results on factors influencing preferences for cereal grains reveals that cooking quality and appearance (65.7 %) were the most important factors affecting the demand for maize in the study area. This study recommends that cereal crop production should be prioritized in government policies and farming activities that help to boost food security and alleviate poverty should be subsidized.

Keywords: expenditure pattern, AIDS model, budget share, price cereal grains and consumption

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Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

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This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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Authors: S. Nandagopalan, N. Pradeep

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The aim of this paper is to propose a general framework for storing, analyzing, and extracting knowledge from two-dimensional echocardiographic images, color Doppler images, non-medical images, and general data sets. A number of high performance data mining algorithms have been used to carry out this task. Our framework encompasses four layers namely physical storage, object identification, knowledge discovery, user level. Techniques such as active contour model to identify the cardiac chambers, pixel classification to segment the color Doppler echo image, universal model for image retrieval, Bayesian method for classification, parallel algorithms for image segmentation, etc., were employed. Using the feature vector database that have been efficiently constructed, one can perform various data mining tasks like clustering, classification, etc. with efficient algorithms along with image mining given a query image. All these facilities are included in the framework that is supported by state-of-the-art user interface (UI). The algorithms were tested with actual patient data and Coral image database and the results show that their performance is better than the results reported already.

Keywords: active contour, bayesian, echocardiographic image, feature vector

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Authors: Mohamad H. Atyeh, Ahmad Khaldi

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The main objective of this research is to measure the relationship between the Kuwait stock Exchange (KSE) index and its two marketing sectors after the new market classification. The findings of this research are important for Public economic policy makers as they need to know if the new system (new classification) is efficient and to what level, to monitor the markets and intervene with appropriate measures. The data used are the daily index of the whole Kuwaiti market and the daily closing price, number of deals and volume of shares traded of two marketing sectors (consumer goods and consumer services) for the period from the 13th of May 2012 till the 12th of December 2016. The results indicate a positive direct impact of the closing price, volume and deals indexes of the consumer goods and the consumer services companies on the overall KSE index, volume and deals of the Kuwaiti stock market (KSE).

Keywords: correlation, market capitalization, Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE), marketing sectors, stock performance

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development

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Authors: Hema Bhardwaj, D. Srinivasa Rao

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Technology for analysing, processing, and extracting meaningful data from enormous and complicated datasets can be termed as "big data." The technique of big data mining and big data analysis is extremely helpful for business movements such as making decisions, building organisational plans, researching the market efficiently, improving sales, etc., because typical management tools cannot handle such complicated datasets. Special computational and statistical issues, such as measurement errors, noise accumulation, spurious correlation, and storage and scalability limitations, are brought on by big data. These unique problems call for new computational and statistical paradigms. This research paper offers an overview of the literature on big data mining, its process, along with problems and difficulties, with a focus on the unique characteristics of big data. Organizations have several difficulties when undertaking data mining, which has an impact on their decision-making. Every day, terabytes of data are produced, yet only around 1% of that data is really analyzed. The idea of the mining and analysis of data and knowledge discovery techniques that have recently been created with practical application systems is presented in this study. This article's conclusion also includes a list of issues and difficulties for further research in the area. The report discusses the management's main big data and data mining challenges.

Keywords: big data, data mining, data analysis, knowledge discovery techniques, data mining challenges

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Authors: Zo Hasina Rabemananjara

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The North-East of Madagascar is the pillar of Madagascar's foreign trade, providing 41% and 80% of world exports of cloves and vanilla, respectively, in 2016. For Madagascar, the north-eastern escarpment is home to the last massifs of humid forest in large scale of the island, surrounded by a small scale agricultural mosaic. In the sites where this study is taking place, located in the peripheral zones of protected areas, the production of rent aims to supply international markets. In fact, importers of the cash crops produced in these areas are located mainly in India, Singapore, France, Germany and the United States. Recently, the price of these products has increased significantly, especially from the year 2015. For vanilla, the price has skyrocketed, from an approximate price of 73 USD per kilo in 2015 to more than 250 USD per kilo in 2016. The value of clove exports increased sharply by 49.4% in 2017, largely to Singapore and India due to the sharp increase in exported volume (+47, 6%) in 2017. If the relationship between the rise in prices of rented products and the change in physical environments is known, the evolution of the behavior of land users linked to this aspect was not yet addressed by research. In fact, the consequence of this price increase in the organization of the use of space at the local level still raises questions. Hence, the research question is: to what extent does this improvement in the price of imported products affect user behavior linked to the local organization of access to the factor of soil production? To fully appreciate this change in behavior, surveys of 144 land user households were carried out, and group interviews were also carried out. The results of this research showed that the rise in the prices of annuity products from the year 2015 caused significant changes in the behavior of land users in the study sites. Young people, who have not been attracted to farming for a long time, have started to show interest in it since the period of rising vanilla and clove prices. They have set up their own fields of vanilla and clove cultivation. This revival of interest conferred an important value on the land and caused conflicts especially between family members because the acquisition of the cultivated land was done by inheritance or donation. This change in user behavior has also affected the farmers' life strategy since the latter have decided to abandon rain-fed rice farming, which has long been considered a guaranteed subsistence activity for cash crops. This research will contribute to nourishing scientific reflection on the management of land use and also to support political decision-makers in decision-making on spatial planning.

Keywords: behavior of land users, North-eastern Madagascar, price of export products, spatial planning

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Authors: Hector Carcel Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

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This paper examines the time series behavior of three variables (GDP, Price level of Consumption and Population) in the eight countries that belong to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which are Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. The reason for carrying out this study lies in the considerable heterogeneity that can be perceived in the data from these countries. We conduct a long memory and fractional integration modeling framework and we also identify potential breaks in the data. The aim of the study is to perceive up to which degree the eight West African countries that belong to the same monetary union follow the same economic patterns of stability. Testing for mean reversion, we only found strong evidence of it in the case of Senegal for the Price level of Consumption, and in the cases of Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal for GDP.

Keywords: West Africa, Monetary Union, fractional integration, economic patterns

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Authors: Mingming Leng

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Wal-Mart has allocated considerable human resources for its quality assurance program, in which the largest retailer serves its supply chains as a quality gatekeeper. Asda Stores Ltd., the second largest supermarket chain in Britain, is now investing £27m in significantly increasing the frequency of quality control checks in its supply chains and thus enhancing quality across its fresh food business. Moreover, Tesco, the largest British supermarket chain, already constructed a quality assessment center to carry out its gatekeeping responsibility. Motivated by the above practices, we consider a supply chain in which a retailer plays the gatekeeping role in quality assurance by identifying defects among a manufacturer's products prior to selling them to consumers. The impact of a retailer's gatekeeping activity on pricing and quality assurance in a supply chain has not been investigated in the operations management area. We draw a number of managerial insights that are expected to help practitioners judiciously consider the quality gatekeeping effort at the retail level. As in practice, when the retailer identifies a defective product, she immediately returns it to the manufacturer, who then replaces the defect with a good quality product and pays a penalty to the retailer. If the retailer does not recognize a defect but sells it to a consumer, then the consumer will identify the defect and return it to the retailer, who then passes the returned 'unidentified' defect to the manufacturer. The manufacturer also incurs a penalty cost. Accordingly, we analyze a two-stage pricing and quality decision problem, in which the manufacturer and the retailer bargain over the manufacturer's average defective rate and wholesale price at the first stage, and the retailer decides on her optimal retail price and gatekeeping intensity at the second stage. We also compare the results when the retailer performs quality gatekeeping with those when the retailer does not. Our supply chain analysis exposes some important managerial insights. For example, the retailer's quality gatekeeping can effectively reduce the channel-wide defective rate, if her penalty charge for each identified de-fect is larger than or equal to the market penalty for each unidentified defect. When the retailer imple-ments quality gatekeeping, the change in the negotiated wholesale price only depends on the manufac-turer's 'individual' benefit, and the change in the retailer's optimal retail price is only related to the channel-wide benefit. The retailer is willing to take on the quality gatekeeping responsibility, when the impact of quality relative to retail price on demand is high and/or the retailer has a strong bargaining power. We conclude that the retailer's quality gatekeeping can help reduce the defective rate for consumers, which becomes more significant when the retailer's bargaining position in her supply chain is stronger. Retailers with stronger bargaining powers can benefit more from their quality gatekeeping in supply chains.

Keywords: bargaining, game theory, pricing, quality, supply chain

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Authors: Fatihin Khoirul, Muhammad Muqorrobin Ist

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Bojonegoro Regency is one of the districts that use the concept Agropolitan as the Territorial Development Policy. Three sub-district designated as Area Development District of Agropolitan are Kapas, Dander, and Kalitidu or commonly called KADEKA. Current policy has been shown results, but there was an inequality of results in some areas. One of them occurred in the Ngringinrejo village with the main commodities is Starfruit and Wedi village with the main commodities is Salak fruit. Therefore, a comparative study is used to search for causal factors of inequality result of the policy by using the 5 aspects compared, namely: (1) Management Development Agropolitan; (2) Physical Condition agropolitan Region; (3) Implementing Agency at the Village Level; (4) Village Government Support; and (5) Community support. Based on the discussion of qualitative analysis, it was found that five aspects have their respective roles in creating inequality of outcomes that occur in both villages. But beyond that, there are conditions where the two villages experienced the same condition that is when the initial implementation of the policy. The condition is referred to as 'the phenomenon of price trap.' The condition is caused by lower commodity prices, causing the village government's commitment in implementing policies too low, followed by public awareness in support of the policy is also low, so care for commodities is also low, and the quality is too low lead and eventually back causing low price. However, the difference is that the village Ngringinrejo able to get out of this condition with 'the new culture of administration' at the end of 2013. While the conditions in the village of Wedi compounded by not respected request assistance by the irrigation district.

Keywords: comparative policy analysis, qualitative comparative, inequallity, price trap, new culture of administration

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Authors: Trina Isabel D. Santiago, Juan Raphael M. Perez, Maria Angelica O. Soriano, Teresita B. Suing, Jumee F. Tayaban

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To achieve universal healthcare for everyone, the World Health Organization has emphasized the importance of National Medicines Policies for increased accessibility and utilization of high-quality and affordable medications. In the Philippines, significant challenges have been identified surrounding the sustainability of essential medicines, resulting in limited access such as high cost and dominance and market dominance and monopoly of multinational companies (MNCs) in the Philippine pharmaceutical industry. These identified challenges have been addressed by several initiatives, such as the Philippine National Drug Policy and Generics Act of 1988 (Republic Act 6675), to attempt to reduce drug prices. Despite these efforts, the concerns with drug accessibility and affordability continue to persist; hence, Republic Act 9502 was enacted. This paper attempts to review RA 9502 in the pursuit of making medicines more affordable for Filipinos, analyze and critique the problems and challenges associated with the law, and provide recommendations to address identified problems and challenges. A literature search and review, as well as an analysis of the law, has been done to evaluate the policy. RA 9502 recognizes the importance of market competition in drug price reduction and quality medicine accessibility. Contentious issues prior to enactment of the law include 1) parallel importation, pointing out that the drug price will depend on the global market price, 2) contrasting approaches in the drafting of the law as the House version focused on medicine price control while the Senate version prioritized market competition, and 3) MNCs opposing the amendments with concerns on discrimination, constitutional violations, and noncompliance with international treaty obligations. There are also criticisms and challenges with the implementation of the law in terms of content or modeling, interpretation and implementation, and other external factors or hindrances. The law has been criticized for its narrow scope as it only covers specific essential medicines with no cooperation with the national health insurance program. Moreover, the law has sections taking advantage of the TRIPS flexibilities, which disallow smaller countries to reap the benefits of flexibilities. The sanctions and penalties have an insignificant role in implementation as they only ask for a small portion of the income of MNCs. Proposed recommendations for policy improvement include aligning existing legislation through strengthened price regulation and expanded law coverage, strengthening penalties to promote law adherence, and promoting research and development to encourage and support local initiatives. Through these comprehensive recommendations, the issues surrounding the policy can be addressed, and the goal of enhancing the affordability and accessibility of medicines in the country can be achieved.

Keywords: drug accessibility, drug affordability, price regulation, Republic Act 9502

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Authors: Marcos Centurion-Vicencio

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This study discusses the idea of ‘dominance’ in economic policy and its practical influence over monetary decisions. The discretionary use of repurchase agreements in Brazil over the period 2006-2016 and its effects on the overall price level are the specific issues we will be focusing on. The set of in-depth interviews carried out with public servants at the Brazilian central bank and national treasury, alongside data collected from the National Institution of Statistics (IBGE), suggest that monetary and fiscal dominance do not differ in nature once the assumption of depoliticized central bankers is relaxed. In both regimes, the pursuit of private gains via public institutions affects price stability. While short-sighted politicians in the latter are at the origin of poor monetary decisions, the action of short-sighted financial interest groups is likely to generate a similar outcome in the former. This study then contributes to rethinking monetary policy theory as well as the nature of public borrowing.

Keywords: fiscal and monetary interactions, interest groups, monetary capture, public borrowing

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: Narges Nejati

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Nowadays as science hasten toward technology, only quantity of construction noticed and there is a little attention toward quality of construction and there is no usage for element which was prevalent in traditional architecture. This is the cause of this issue that nowadays we see building that most of them just keep you from heat and cold of outside environment and there is no trace of any culture of their country or nation in it. And although we know that man is a creature that adores beauty by his nature, but this spiritual need of him is ignored. And designers by taking an enormous price instead of planning (spiritual designing) to release peace, they attend to planning which make a human soul bothered and ill. The present research is trying to illustrate price of concepts and principles of water usage as one of the elements of nature and also shows the water application in some of the Iranian constructions and the results show the motif of using water in constructions and also some benefits of using it in constructions. And also this matter can causes a reconnection between nature and constructing of a beautiful environment which is consonant and proportional with man’ physical, spiritual and cultural needs. And causes peace and comfort of men. A construction which man feels a friendly atmosphere in them which he has a sense of belonging to them not a construction which arouses feeling of weariness and fatigue.

Keywords: water usage, belonging, sustainable architecture, urban design

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Authors: Elena G. Salina, Vadim A. Makarov

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With the emergence of primary resistance to the current drugs and wide distribution of latent tuberculosis infection, a need for new compounds with a novel mode of action is growing steadily. Copper-mediated innate immunity and antibacterial toxicity propose novel strategies in TB drug discovery and development. Transcriptome of M. tuberculosis was obtained by RNA-seq, intracellular copper content was measured by ISP MS and complexes of 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines with copper were detected by HPLC.1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridine derivatives were found to be highly active in vitro against both actively growing and dormant non-culturable M. tuberculosis. Transcriptome response to 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines revealed signs of copper toxicity in M. tuberculosis bacilli. Indeed, Cu was found to accumulate inside cells treated with 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines. These compounds were found to form stable charged lipophylic complexes with Cu²⁺ ions which transport into mycobacterial cell. Subsequent metabolic destruction of the complex led to transformation of 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines into 2-methylmercapto-2-ethoxycarbonylpyridines, which did not possess antitubercular activity and releasing of free Cu²⁺ in the cytoplasm. 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines are a potent class of Cu-dependent inhibitors of M. tuberculosis which may control M. tuberculosis infection by impairment of copper homeostasis. Acknowledgment: This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the RussianFederation (Agreement No 14.616.21.0065; unique identifier RFMEFI61616X0065).

Keywords: copper toxicity, drug discovery, M. tuberculosis inhibitors, 2-thiopyridines

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Authors: Nguyen Thi Huong Nhai

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This paper examines how different motivations to engage in organic farming may impact the farmers’ subjective well-being using a survey database from the French Agence Bio. Three measures representing the subjective well-being of farmers brought by their involvement in organic farming are used in this study: feelings of pride, satisfaction, and feeling of happiness. We focus on the effects of two different types of motivations: intrinsic motivations, such as preservation of human health and public health, concern about the environment, and autonomy in farming decisions; extrinsic motivations, such as fair price, income, and demand incentives. Results show that not all intrinsic motivations can increase farmers’s well-being. The intrinsic motivation relating to environment concern and aspiration seems to have the highest positive impact on the three proxies of SWB in our study. It is interesting to find out that the two extrinsic motivations (profitable price, satisfying the incentive of consumer and cooperative) are proven to have a negative influence. Some comparisons, explanations, and practical implications are also indicated in this research.

Keywords: intrinsic otivation, extrinsic motivation, subjective wellbeing, organic farmers

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Authors: Norm Josephy, Lucy Kimball, Victoria Steblovskaya

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Hedging of a portfolio of European options under proportional transaction costs is considered. Our discrete time financial market model extends the binomial market model with transaction costs to the case where the underlying stock price ratios are distributed over a bounded interval rather than over a two-point set. An optimal hedging strategy is chosen from a set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies. Our approach to optimal hedging of a portfolio of options is based on theoretical foundation that includes determination of a no-arbitrage option price interval as well as on properties of the non-self-financing strategies and their residuals. A computational algorithm for optimizing an investor relevant criterion over the set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies is developed. Applicability of our approach is demonstrated using both simulated data and real market data.

Keywords: extended binomial model, non-self-financing hedging, optimization, proportional transaction costs

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Authors: Reem Al-Shidhani, Isabelle S. R. Storer, Michael J. Bromley, Lydia Tabernero

Abstract:

Invasive fungal diseases are an increasing global health concern that contributes to the high mortality rates in immunocompromised patients. The rising of antifungal resistance severely lowers the efficacy of the limited antifungal agents available. New antifungal drugs that target new mechanisms are necessary to tackle the current shortfalls. Amongst post- modifications, phosphorylation is a predominant and an outstanding protein alteration in all eukaryotes. In fungi, protein phosphorylation plays a vital role in many signal transduction pathways, including cell cycle, cell growth, metabolism, transcription, differentiation, proliferation, and virulence. The investigation of Aspergillus fumigatus phosphatases revealed seven genes essential for viability. Inhibiting one of these phosphatases is a new interesting route to develop novel antifungal drugs. In this study, we carried out an early drug discovery process targeting oneessential phosphatase, GlcA. Here, we report the identification of new GlcA inhibitors that show antifungal activity. These important finding open a new avenue to the development of novel antifungals to expand the current narrow arsenal of clinical candidates.

Keywords: invasive fungal diseases, phosphatases, GlcA, competitive inhibitors

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Authors: Joanna Smoluk-Sikorska, Władysława Łuczka

Abstract:

Organic farming is an important element of sustainable agriculture. It has been developing very dynamically in Poland, especially since Poland’s accession to the EU. Nevertheless, properly functioning organic market is a necessary condition justifying development of organic agriculture. Despite significant improvement, this market in Poland is still in the initial stage of growth. An important element of the market is distribution, especially retail, which offers specified product range to consumers. Therefore, there is a need to investigate retail outlets offering organic food in order to improve functioning of this part of the market. The inquiry research conducted in three types of outlets offering organic food, between 2011 and 2012 in the 8 largest Polish cities, shows that the majority of outlets offer cereals, processed fruit and vegetables as well as spices and the least shops – meat and sausages. The distributors mostly indicate unsatisfactory product range of suppliers as the reason for this situation. The main providers of the outlets are wholesalers, particularly in case of processed products, and in fresh products – organic farms. A very important distribution obstacle is dispersion of producers, which generates high transportation costs and what follows that, high price of organics. In the investigated shops, the most often used price calculation method is a cost method. The majority of the groceries and specialist shops apply margins between 21 and 40%. The margin in specialist outlets is the highest, in regard to the qualified service and advice. In turn, most retail networks declare the margin between 0 and 20%, which is consistent with low-price strategy applied in these shops. Some lacks in the product range of organics and in particular high prices cause that the demand volume is rather low. Therefore there is a need to support certain market actions, e.g. on-farm processing or promotion.

Keywords: organic food, retail, product range, supply sources

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Yehya Abdellatif, Iyad M. Muslih, Azzah Alkhalailah, Abdallah Muslih

Abstract:

Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) software was utilized to find the optimum design of a hybrid off-Grid system, by choosing the optimal solution depending on the cost analysis of energy based on different capacity shortage percentages. A complete study for the site conditions and load profile was done to optimize the design and implementation of a hybrid off-grid power station. In addition, the solution takes into consecration the ambient temperature effect on the efficiency of the power generation and the economical aspects of selection depending on real market price. From the analysis of the HOMER model results, the optimum hybrid power station was suggested, based on wind speed, and solar conditions. The optimization function objective is to minimize the Net Price Cost (NPC) and the Cost of Energy (COE) with zero and 10 percentage of capacity shortage.

Keywords: energy modeling, HOMER, off-grid system, optimization

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Authors: Luís Antonio de Almeida Rodriguez, José Maria Parente de Oliveira, Ednelson Oliveira

Abstract:

In the last two decades, the world’s aviation authorities have made several attempts to create consensus about a global and accepted approach for applying semantics to web services registry descriptions. This problem has led communities to face a fat and disorganized infrastructure to describe aeronautical web services. It is usual for developers to implement ad-hoc connections among consumers and providers and manually create non-standardized service compositions, which need some particular approach to compose and semantically discover a desired web service. Current practices are not precise and tend to focus on lightweight specifications of some parts of the OWL-S and embed them into syntactic descriptions (SOAP artifacts and OWL language). It is necessary to have the ability to manage the use of both technologies. This paper presents an implementation of the ontology OWL-S that describes a Brazilian Aeronautical Web Service Registry, which makes it able to publish, advertise, make multi-criteria semantic discovery aligned with the ideas of the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) Program, and invoke web services within the Air Traffic Management context. The proposal’s best finding is a generic approach to describe semantic web services. The paper also presents a set of functional requirements to guide the ontology development and to compare them to the results to validate the implementation of the OWL-S Ontology.

Keywords: aeronautical web services, OWL-S, semantic web services discovery, ontologies

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Authors: Bing Li, Zhi Li, Yilong Yang

Abstract:

Web classification can promote the quality of service discovery and management in the service repository. It is widely used to locate developers desired services. Although traditional classification methods based on supervised learning models can achieve classification tasks, developers need to manually mark web services, and the quality of these tags may not be enough to establish an accurate classifier for service classification. With the doubling of the number of web services, the manual tagging method has become unrealistic. In recent years, the attention mechanism has made remarkable progress in the field of deep learning, and its huge potential has been fully demonstrated in various fields. This paper designs a multi-head attention graph convolutional network (MHAGCN) service classification method, which can assign different weights to the neighborhood nodes without complicated matrix operations or relying on understanding the entire graph structure. The framework combines the advantages of the attention mechanism and graph convolutional neural network. It can classify web services through automatic feature extraction. The comprehensive experimental results on a real dataset not only show the superior performance of the proposed model over the existing models but also demonstrate its potentially good interpretability for graph analysis.

Keywords: attention mechanism, graph convolutional network, interpretability, service classification, service discovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Reysand Mae A. Abapial, Christine Claire Z. Agra, Quenna Lyn V. De Guzman, Marielle Arianne Joyce Q. Hojilla, John Joseph A. Tiangco

Abstract:

The study focused on the assessment of the tourists’ satisfaction on the local gastronomy in Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte as a tourist destination as perceived by 100 tourists visiting the tourist destination, which is determined through convenient random sampling. Mean, percentage frequency and Wilcoxon rank sum test were used in the collection of data. The results revealed that the tourists agree that the local establishments offering local cuisines are accessible in terms of the location, internet visibility and facilities for persons-with-disabilities. The tourist are also willing to pay for the local food because it is attainable, budget-friendly, worthy for an expensive price, satisfies the cravings, reflects the physical appearance of the establishment and its quantity is reasonable based on the price. However, the tourists disagree that the local food completes their overall experience as tourists and it does not have the potential to satisfy all types of tourists. Recommendations for the enhancement of the local cuisine and implications for future research are discussed.

Keywords: gastronomy, local gastronomy, tourist satisfaction, Pagudpud

Procedia PDF Downloads 639