Search results for: gambling decision

Authors: Larry O. Awo, George N. Duru

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There is growing public and mental health concerns over the availability of gambling platforms and shops in Nigeria and the high level of youth involvement in gambling. Early theorizing maintained that gambling involvement driven by the quest for resource gains. However, evidences show that the economic model of gambling tend to explain the involvement of the gambling business owners (sport lottery operators: SLOs) as most gamblers lose more than they win. This loss, according to the law of effect, ought to discourage decisions to gamble. However, the quest to recover loses has often initiated and prolonged gambling sessions. Therefore, the need to investigate mental contemplations (such as counterfactual reasoning (upward versus downward) of what “would, should, or could” have been, and feeling of the illusion of control; IOC) over gambling outcome as risk or protective factors in gambling decisions became pertinent. The present study sought to understand the differential contributions and conditional effects of upward versus downward counterfactual reasoning as pathways through which the association between IOC and gambling decision of Nigerian youths (N = 120, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) could be explained. The study adopted a randomized group design, and data were obtained by means of stimulus material (the Gambling Episode; GE) and self-report measures of IOC and Gambling Decision. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that participants in the upward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 22.08) differed from their colleagues in the downward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 17.33) on the decision to gamble, and this difference was significant [F(1,112) = 23, P < .01]. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results showed that 1) IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were positively associated with the decision to gamble (B = 14.21, t = 6.10, p < .01 and B = 7.22, t = 2.07, p < .01), 3) upward counterfactual reasoning did not moderate the association between IOC and gambling decision (p > .05), and 4) downward counterfactual reasoning negatively moderated the association between IOC and gambling decision (B = 07, t = 2.18, p < .05) such that the association was strong at a low level of downward counterfactual, but wane at high levels of downward counterfactual reasoning. The implication of these findings are that IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were risk factors and promote gambling behavior, while downward counterfactual reasoning protects individuals from gambling activities. Thus, it is concluded that downward counterfactual reasoning strategies should be included in gambling therapy and treatment packages as it could diminish feelings of both IOC and negative feelings of missed positive outcomes and the urge to gamble.

Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, gambling cognition, gambling decision, nigeria, youths

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Authors: Larry O. Awo, George N. Duru

Abstract:

There are growing public and mental health concerns over the availability of gambling platforms and shops in Nigeria and the high level of youth involvement in gambling. Early theorizing maintained that gambling involvement was driven by a quest for resource gains. However, evidence shows that the economic model of gambling tends to explain the involvement of the gambling business owners (sport lottery operators: SLOs) as most gamblers lose more than they win. This loss, according to the law of effect, ought to discourage decisions to gamble. However, the quest to recover losses has often initiated prolonged gambling sessions. Therefore, the need to investigate mental contemplations (such as counterfactual reasoning (upward versus downward) of what “would, should, or could” have been, and feeling of the illusion of control; IOC) over gambling outcomes as risk or protective factors in gambling decisions became pertinent. The present study sought to understand the differential contributions and conditional effects of upward versus downward counterfactual reasoning as pathways through which the association between IOC and gambling decisions of Nigerian youths (N = 120, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) could be explained. The study adopted a randomized group design, and data were obtained by means of stimulus material (the Gambling Episode; GE) and self-report measures of IOC and Gambling Decision. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that participants in the upward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 22.08) differed from their colleagues in the downward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 17.33) on the decision to gamble, and this difference was significant [F(1,112) = 23, P < .01]. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results showed that 1) IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were positively associated with the decision to gamble (B = 14.21, t = 6.10, p < .01 and B = 7.22, t = 2.07, p <.05, respectively), 2) downward counterfactual reasoning was negatively associated with the decision to gamble more to recover losses (B = 10.03, t = 3.21, p < .01), 3) upward counterfactual reasoning did not moderate the association between IOC and gambling decision (p > .05), and 4) downward counterfactual reasoning negatively moderated the association between IOC and gambling decision (B = 07, t = 2.18, p < .05) such that the association was strong at the low level of downward counterfactual, but wane at high levels of downward counterfactual reasoning. The implication of these findings is that IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were risk factors and promoted gambling behavior, while downward counterfactual reasoning protects individuals from gambling activities. Thus, it is concluded that downward counterfactual reasoning strategies should be included in gambling therapy and treatment packages as it could diminish feelings of both IOC and negative feelings of missed positive outcomes and the urge to gamble.

Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, gambling cognition, gambling decision, Nigeria, youths

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Authors: Larry O. Awo, Precious I. Nwachukwu

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The increase in proliferation of gambling venues in Nigeria in the last decade has led to an increase in gambling prevalence among the youths who have shown signs of problem gambling and its associated risks and pressures to parents and therapists. The present study sought to investigate the roles of counterfactual thinking (CFT) forms (upward CFT vs downward CFT) in the relationship between impulsivity and gambling intention of 371 Nigerian youths who have gambled prior to the study (mean age = 17.37, SD = 4.13). Hayes PROCESS macro result revealed that, after controlling for age, downward CFT was negatively associated with and contributed to a decrease in gambling intention, while upward CFT was positively associated with and contributed to an increase in gambling intention. Mediation analysis result showed that upward CFT amplified the contribution of impulsivity to gambling intention. The association between impulsivity and gambling was partially weakened by downward CFT, even though this weakness was not significant. We conclude that gambling therapies should encourage packages that attenuate upward CFT impulsivity and at the same time, increase downward CFT skills.

Keywords: upward counterfactuals, downward counterfactuals, gambling intention, nigerian youths

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Authors: Archen Sara Vincent

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Gambling is the practice or act of betting or wagering on uncertain events with the hope of winning money or any other valuable assets. Nowadays, the practice of gambling can be seen in almost all grounds of events, especially in sports. In sports, this is commonly known among people as sports betting. The history of gambling can be traced about 2,000 years back. It originated from Greeks, from Greeks to the Romans, then to England, where betting on horse races was much popular among the elites. The evolution of gambling in sports has made a greater impact in the modern era. In India, the legality of gambling in sports is regulated by The Public Gambling Act 1867, which prohibits gambling activities in public places. The major draw of this statute is that it does not have specific laws regarding online sports gambling. Section 30 of The Indian Contract Act 1872 considers wagering agreements void. However, there are certain exceptions for this section, that is, (1) state-owned lotteries and (2) wagering on horse races with a sum of Rupees 500 or upward. As per the Indian Constitution, the rules regarding sports gambling are within the powers of the state legislatures. Some of the states have enacted their own laws which explicitly permit or prohibit gambling within their jurisdiction. Recently in Tamilnadu, The Tamilnadu Gaming Act was amended in 2021 to completely ban online gambling and betting. Moreover, the Central Government has introduced the Online Gaming and Prevention of Fraud Bill, 2018, to legalize and regulate sports betting in India. However, this bill has not yet been passed as law. Now as the Indian legal system does not have a specific rule regarding online sports gambling, sports betting companies use this major drawback and attract people to use the gambling and betting apps by advertising with well-known sports players and other celebrities. This paper aims to critically evaluate gambling in sports and the laws relating to it in India.

Keywords: history of gambling, The Public Gambling Act 1862, state legislations, gambling in India

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Authors: Hong Fan, Lifang Gao, Feng Zhan

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This paper examines the influence of local gambling attitudes on a firm's long-term financial performance. Firms located in gambling-prone regions may be more willing to take risks, thus spending more on innovative projects. However, firms in such regions may also be likely to choose projects impulsively and allocate resources inefficiently. By studying Chinese publicly listed firms from 2010 to 2017, we find that firms in more gambling-prone regions invest more in R&D. Both local gambling attitudes and firms’ R&D spending are positively associated with firms’ long-term financial performance. More importantly, our study reveals that the positive impact of R&D spending on firms’ long-term financial performance is weakened by gambling-friendly attitudes, probably because firms in gambling-prone regions are more likely to overinvest in risky projects. This effect is stronger for larger firms, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), firms with more government subsidies, and firms with weaker internal control.

Keywords: regional gambling attitudes, long-term financial performance, R&D, risk, local bias

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Authors: Cameron Brown, Jessica Vanburen, Scott Hunt

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This study analyzed 411 international newspaper stories pertaining to gambling-related crimes from January 2013 to December 2014. These stories included accounts of crimes committed to fund gambling or pay gambling debts or that occurred at gambling establishments. Our analysis pays particular attention to those crimes that were imputed to be committed by “problem” or “addictive” gamblers, who commit crimes to fund gambling or pay gambling debts. Previous research on problem/addictive gambling has focused on its etiology or prevalence rates and has not attended to the media portrayals of this behavior and its association with crime. Using frame analysis concepts, the data demonstrate that the newspaper stories typically frame the events as “crimes” and not the result of illness or addiction. The “evidence” of motive that could have indicated psychological problems or additions were rather framed as “criminal motive.” This framing practice advances an identity of a “problem/addictive gambler” as a deviant criminal perpetrator and not a victim of addiction. The paper concludes with a discussion of how these findings can be used to advance research on social portrayals of problem/addictive gamblers. Specifically, we consider how these media frames impede an understanding of problem/addictive gambling as a public health problem.

Keywords: problem gambling, addictive gambling, identity resonace, frame analysis

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Authors: Vesali Naseh Morteza, Najafi Mohammad Hosein

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The possibility of trading in-game items for real money provides a high economic capacity for online games and turns them into a business model. Nowadays, the market for in-game item purchases and microtransactions or micropayments has been growing increasingly. Since the market should be legal, lawyers and lawmakers around the world have expressed concerns over the legality of online gaming and in-game transactions. The issue is highlighted by the recent emergence of an in-game business model in the name of loot boxes. Similarities between loot boxes gaming and gambling features activities have started a legal debate as to whether loot boxes constitute a form of gambling or whether the game’s use of loot boxes should be considered gambling. Hence, based on the relationship between loot boxes purchasing and problem gambling, the paper investigates the legal effect of the newly emergent phenomenon of loot boxes on online games from the perspective of Iranian law.

Keywords: serious games, loot boxes, online gambling, in-game purchase, virtual items

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Authors: Violet Justine Mtonga, Cecilia Diaz

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this paper explores the prevalence of loyalty programs in the UK gambling industry and their association with unintended consequences and harm amongst program members. The use of loyalty programs within the UK gambling industry has risen significantly with over 40 million cards in circulation. Some research suggests that as of 2013-2014, nearly 95% of UK consumers have at least one loyalty card with 78% being members of two or more programs, and the average household possesses ‘22 loyalty programs’, nearly half of which tend to be used actively. The core design of loyalty programs is to create a relational ‘win-win’ approach where value is jointly created between the parties involved through repetitive engagement. However, main concern about the diffusion of gambling organisations’ loyalty programs amongst consumers, might be the use by the organisations within the gambling industry to over influence customer engagement and potentially cause unintended harm. To help understand the complex phenomena of the diffusions and adaptation of the use of loyalty programs in the gambling industry, and the potential unintended outcomes, this study is theoretically underpinned by the social exchange theory of relationships entrenched in the processes of social exchanges of resources, rewards, and costs for long-term interactions and mutual benefits. Qualitative data were collected via in-depth interviews from 14 customers and 12 employees within the UK land-based gambling firms. Data were analysed using a combination of thematic and clustering analysis to help reveal and discover the emerging themes regarding the use of loyalty cards for gambling companies and exploration of subgroups within the sample. The study’s results indicate that there are different unintended consequences and harm of loyalty program engagement and usage such as maladaptive gambling behaviours, risk of compulsiveness, and loyalty programs promoting gambling from home. Furthermore, there is a strong indication of a rite of passage among loyalty program members. There is also strong evidence to support other unfavorable behaviors such as amplified gambling habits and risk-taking practices. Additionally, in pursuit of rewards, loyalty program incentives effectuate overconsumption and heighten expenditure. Overall, the primary findings of this study show that loyalty programs in the gambling industry should be designed with an ethical perspective and practice.

Keywords: gambling, loyalty programs, social exchange theory, unintended harm

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Authors: Vânia Costa, Nuno De Sá Teixeira, Ana C. Santos, Eduardo Santos

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Financial literacy and numeracy have been regarded as paramount for rational household decision making in the increasing complexity of financial markets. However, financial decisions are often made under sub-optimal circumstances, including cognitive overload. The present study aims to clarify how financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant expert knowledge for financial decision-making, modulate possible effects of cognitive load. Participants were required to perform a choice between a sure loss or a gambling pertaining a financial investment, either with or without a competing memory task. Two experiments were conducted varying only the content of the competing task. In the first, the financial choice task was made while maintaining on working memory a list of five random letters. In the second, cognitive load was based upon the retention of six random digits. In both experiments, one of the items in the list had to be recalled given its serial position. Outcomes of the first experiment revealed no significant main effect or interactions involving cognitive load manipulation and numeracy and financial literacy skills, strongly suggesting that retaining a list of random letters did not interfere with the cognitive abilities required for financial decision making. Conversely, and in the second experiment, a significant interaction between the competing mnesic task and level of financial literacy (but not numeracy) was found for the frequency of choice of a gambling option. Overall, and in the control condition, both participants with high financial literacy and high numeracy were more prone to choose the gambling option. However, and when under cognitive load, participants with high financial literacy were as likely as their illiterate counterparts to choose the gambling option. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that financial literacy prevents intuitive risk-aversion reasoning only under highly favourable conditions, as is the case when no other task is competing for cognitive resources. In contrast, participants with higher levels of numeracy were consistently more prone to choose the gambling option in both experimental conditions. These results are discussed in the light of the opposition between classical dual-process theories and fuzzy-trace theories for intuitive decision making, suggesting that while some instances of expertise (as numeracy) are prone to support easily accessible gist representations, other expert skills (as financial literacy) depend upon deliberative processes. It is furthermore suggested that this dissociation between types of expert knowledge might depend on the degree to which they are generalizable across disparate settings. Finally, applied implications of the present study are discussed with a focus on how it informs financial regulators and the importance and limits of promoting financial literacy and general numeracy.

Keywords: decision making, cognitive load, financial literacy, numeracy

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Authors: Semion Kertzman, Pinhas Dannon

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Impulsive behaviour and the underlying brain processes are hypothesized to be central in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. Inhibition ability can be differentially impaired in pathological gamblers (PGs). Aims: This study aimed to compare the ability of eight widely used inhibition measures to discriminate between PGs and healthy controls (HCs). Methods: PGs (N=51) and demographically matched HCs (N=51) performed cognitive inhibition (the Stroop), motor inhibition (the Go/NoGo) and reflective inhibition (the Matching Familiar Figures (MFFT)) tasks. Results: An augmented total interference response time in the Stroop task (η² =0.054), a large number of commission errors (η² =0.053) in the Go/NoGo task, and the total number of errors in the MFFT (η² =0.05) can discriminate PGs from HCs. Other measures are unable to differentiate between PGs and HCs. No significant correlations were observed between inhibition measures. Conclusion: Inhibition measures varied in the ability to discriminate PGs from HCs. Most inhibition measures were not relevant to gambling behaviour. PGs do not express rash, impulsive behaviour, such as quickly choosing an answer without thinking. In contrast, in PGs, inhibition impairment was related to slow-inaccurate performance.

Keywords: pathological gambling, impulsivity, neurocognition, addiction

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Authors: Gordon James Knowles

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Historically the Chinatown district in Sandwich Islands has been plagued with the traditional vice crimes of illegal drugs, gambling, and prostitution since the early 1800s. However, a new form of psychologically addictive arcade style table gambling machines has become the dominant form of illegal revenue made in Honolulu, Hawaii. This study attempts to document the drive, desire, or will to play and wager with arcade style video gaming and understand the role of illegal game rooms in facilitating pathological gambling addiction. Indicators of police corruption by Chinese organized crime syndicates related to protection rackets, bribery, and pay-offs were revealed. Information fusion from a police science and sociological intelligence perspective indicates insurgent warfare is being waged on the streets of Honolulu by the People’s Republic of China. This state-sponsored communist terrorism in the Hawaiian Islands used “contactless” irregular warfare entailing: (1) the deployment of psychologically addictive gambling machines, (2) the distribution of the physically addictive fentanyl drug as a lethal chemical weapon, and (3) psychological warfare by circulating pro-China anti-American propaganda newspapers targeted at the small island populace.

Keywords: Chinese and Polynesian organized crime, china daily newspaper, electronic arcade style table games, gaming technology addiction, illegal compulsive gambling, and police intelligence

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Authors: T. Marinaci, C. Venuleo

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Different conceptualizations of disease affect patient care. This study aims to address this gap. It explores how health professionals conceptualize gambling problem, addiction and the goals of recovery process. In-depth, semi-structured, open-ended interviews were conducted with Italian psychologists, psychiatrists, general practitioners, and support staff (N= 114), working within health centres for the treatment of addiction (public health services or therapeutic communities) or medical offices. A Lexical Correspondence Analysis (LCA) was applied to the verbatim transcripts. LCA allowed to identify two main factorial dimensions, which organize similarity and dissimilarity in the discourses of the interviewed. The first dimension labelled 'Models of relationship with the problem', concerns two different models of relationship with the health problem: one related to the request for help and the process of taking charge and the other related to the identification of the psychopathology underlying the disorder. The second dimension, labelled 'Organisers of the intervention' reflects the dialectic between two ways to address the problem. On the one hand, they are the gambling dynamics and its immediate life-consequences to organize the intervention (whatever the request of the user is); on the other hand, they are the procedures and the tools which characterize the health service to organize the way the professionals deal with the user’ s problem (whatever it is and despite the specify of the user’s request). The results highlight how, despite the differences, the respondents share a central assumption: understanding gambling problem implies the reference to the gambler’s identity, more than, for instance, to the relational, social, cultural or political context where the gambler lives. A passive stance is attributed to the user, who does not play any role in the definition of the goal of the intervention. The results will be discussed to highlight the relationship between professional models and users’ ways to understand and deal with the problems related to gambling.

Keywords: cultural models, health professionals, intervention models, problem gambling

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Authors: Xinrong Zong, Tao Zhang

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Macau is known as the Oriental Monte Carlo and its economy depends on gambling heavily. The dealer is the key position of the gambling industry, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2015, there were over 24,000 dealers among the 56,000 full-time employees in gambling industry. More than half of dealers were female. The dealer is also called 'Croupier', the main responsibilities of them are shuffling, dealing, processing chips, rolling dice game and inspecting play. Due to the limited land and small population of Macao, the government has not allowed hiring foreign domestic dealers since Macao developed temporary gambling industry. Therefore, local dealers enjoy special advantages but also bear the high stresses from work. From the middle of last year, with the reduced income of gambling, and the decline of mainland gamblers as well as VIP lounges, the working time of dealers increased greatly. Thus, many problems occurred in this condition, such as the rise of working pressures, psychological pressures and family-responsibility pressures, which may affect job satisfaction as well. Because of the less research of dealer satisfaction, and a lack of standing on feminine perspective to analyze female dealers, this study will focus on investigating the relationship between working pressure and job satisfaction from feminine view. Several issues will be discussed specifically: firstly, to understand current situation of the working pressures and job satisfactions of female dealers in different ages; secondly, to research if there is any relevance between working pressures and job satisfactions of female dealers in different ages; thirdly, to find out the relationship between dealers' working pressures and job satisfactions in different ages. This paper combined qualitative approach with quantitative approach selected samples by convenient sampling. The research showed the female dealers from diverse ages have different kinds of working pressures; second, job satisfactions of the female dealers in different ages are dissimilar; moreover, there is negative correlation between working pressure and job satisfaction of female dealer in different ages' groups; last but not the least, working pressure has a significant negative impact on job satisfaction. The research result will provide a reference value for the Macau gambling business. It is a pattern to improve dealers' working environment, to increase employees' job satisfaction, as well as to offer tourists a better service, which can help to attract more and more visitors from a good image of Macau gaming and tourism.

Keywords: female dealers, job satisfaction, working pressure, Macau

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Authors: Dragos Dragomir-Stanciu, Leon Marsh

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Background As a response to the gaps identified in recent research in the provision of residential care to address co-occurring health needs, including mental health problems and complexities Gamble Aware has facilitated the possibility to provide a new service which would extend the NGTS provision of residential rehabilitation for gambling disorder with complex and co-morbid presentation. Gordon Moody, together with Adferiad have been successful in securing the tender for this service and this presentation aims to introduce FOLD, the resulting model of treatment developed for the delivery of the service. Setting As a partnership, we have come together to coproduce a model which allows us to share our clinical and industry knowledge and build on our reputations as trusted treatment providers. The presentation will outline our expertise share in development of a unified approach to recovery-oriented models of care, clinical governance, risk assessment and management and aftercare and continuous recovery. We will also introduce our innovative specialist referral portal which will offer referring partners the ability to include the service user in planning their own recovery journey. Outcomes Our collaboration has resulted in the development of the FOLD model which includes three agile and flexible treatment packages aimed at offering the most enhanced and comprehensive treatment in UK, to date, for those most affected by gambling harm. The paper will offer insight into each treatment package and all recovery model stages involved, as well as into the partnership work with NGST providers, local mental health and social care providers and lived experience organisation that will enable us to offer support to more 100 people a year who would otherwise get “lost in the system”. Conclusion FOLD offers a great opportunity to develop, implement and evaluate a new, much needed, whole-person and whole-system approach to counter gambling related harms.

Keywords: gambling treatment, partnership working, integrated care pathways, NGTS, complex needs

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Authors: Ying Chuan Wang, Zhang Tao

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The aim of this article intends to explore the differences of well-being of employees in casino hotels before and after the Chinese government began to fight corruption. This researcher also attempted to find out the relationship between work pressure and well-being of employees in gambling workplaces before and after the Chinese government crackdowns the corruption. The category of well-being including life well-being, workplace well-being, and psychological well-being was included for analyzing well-being of employees in gaming workplaces. In addition, the psychological pressure classification was applied into this study and the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ) would be adopted on investigating employees’ work pressure in terms of decision latitude, psychological demands, and workplace support. This study is a quantitative approach research and was conducted in March 2017. A purposive sampling was used in this study. A total of valid 339 responses were collected and the participants were casino hotel employees. The findings showed that decision latitude was significantly different prior to and after Chinese government crackdowns on corruption. Moreover, workplace support was strongly significantly related to employees’ well-being before Chinese government crackdowns. Decision latitude was strongly significantly related to employees’ well-being after Chinese government crackdowns. The findings suggest that employees’ work pressure affects their well being. In particular, because of workplace supports, it may alleviate employees’ work pressure and affect their perceptions of well-being but only prior to fighting the crackdowns. Importantly, decision latitude has become an essential factor affecting their well-being after the crackdown. It is finally hoped that the findings of this study provide suggestion to the managerial levels of hospitality industries. It is important to enhance employees’ decision latitude. Offering training courses to equip employees’ skills could be a possible way to reduce work pressure. In addition, establishing career path for the employees to pursuit is essential for their self-development and the improvement of well being. This would be crucial for casino hotels’ sustainable development and strengthening their competitiveness.

Keywords: well-being, work pressure, Casino hotels’ employees, gaming workplace

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Authors: Qiang Yang, Ping-An Du

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Group decision making with multiple attribute has attracted intensive concern in the decision analysis area. This paper assumes that the contributions of all the decision makers (DMs) are not equal to the decision process based on different knowledge and experience in group setting. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel approach to determine weights of DMs in the group decision making problems. In this paper, the weights of DMs are determined in the group decision environment via angle cosine and projection method. First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined as the ideal decision. After that, we define the weight of each decision maker (DM) by aggregating the angle cosine and projection between individual decision and ideal decision with associated direction indicator μ. By using the weights of DMs, all individual decisions are aggregated into a collective decision. Further, the preference order of alternatives is ranked in accordance with the overall row value of collective decision. Finally, an example in a chemical company is provided to illustrate the developed approach.

Keywords: angel cosine, ideal decision, projection method, weights of decision makers

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Authors: Avinash S. Jagtap, Sharad D. Gore, Rajendra G. Gurao

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Decision rules become more and more complex as the number of conditions increase. As a consequence, the complexity of the decision rule also influences the time complexity of computer implementation of such a rule. Consider, for example, a decision that depends on four conditions A, B, C and D. For simplicity, suppose each of these four conditions is binary. Even then the decision rule will consist of 16 lines, where each line will be of the form: If A and B and C and D, then action 1. If A and B and C but not D, then action 2 and so on. While executing this decision rule, each of the four conditions will be checked every time until all the four conditions in a line are satisfied. The minimum number of logical comparisons is 4 whereas the maximum number is 64. This paper proposes to present a complex decision rule in the form of a decision tree. A decision tree divides the cases into branches every time a condition is checked. In the form of a decision tree, every branching eliminates half of the cases that do not satisfy the related conditions. As a result, every branch of the decision tree involves only four logical comparisons and hence is significantly simpler than the corresponding complex decision rule. The conclusion of this paper is that every complex decision rule can be represented as a decision tree and the decision tree is mathematically equivalent but computationally much simpler than the original complex decision rule

Keywords: strategic, tactical, operational, adaptive, innovative

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Authors: Kubra Korkmaz Onat

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Decision-making significantly influences outcomes and shapes future actions, making it a crucial aspect of both personal and professional life. This study examines various decision-making approaches, focusing on their procedures and applications. The rational decision-making model is highlighted for its systematic approach and reliance on data analysis and logical reasoning. Additionally, the study explores consensus, weighted scoring, voting, and brainstorming analysis methods. Key findings indicate that each method has unique strengths and is best suited for specific contexts. The article concludes by offering practical guidance for how to choose the appropriate decision-making approach based on the circumstances.

Keywords: decision-making, decision-making process, decision-making methods, group decision-making

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Authors: D. Pérez, M. M. E. Alemany

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In this work a Framework to model the Supply Chain (SC) Collaborative Planning (CP) Process is proposed, and particularly its Decisional view. The main Framework contributions with regards to previous related works are the following, 1) the consideration of not only the Decision view, the most important one due to the Process type, but other additional three views which are the Physical, Organisation and Information ones, closely related and complementing the Decision View, 2) the joint consideration of two interdependence types, the Temporal (among Decision Centres belonging to different Decision Levels) and Spatial (among Decision Centres belonging to the same Decision Level) to support the distributed Decision-Making process in SC where several decision Centres interact among them in a collaborative manner.

Keywords: collaborative planning, decision view, distributed decision-making, framework

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Authors: Zhen Wu, David Lupien St-Pierre, Georges Abdul-Nour

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In decision making under strict uncertainty, decision makers have to choose a decision without any information about the states of nature. The classic criteria of Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwicz and Starr are introduced and compared in a case study of sewer network planning. Furthermore, results from different criteria are discussed and analyzed. Moreover, this paper discusses the idea that decision making under strict uncertainty (DMUSU) can be viewed as a two-player game and thus be solved by a solution concept in game theory: Nash equilibrium.

Keywords: decision criteria, decision making, sewer network planning, decision making, strict uncertainty

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Authors: Ahmet Ali Turk, Muhterem Bayram

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In this study, it is intended to determine that what kind of traps military leaders fall into during the decision making and how they make take a measure against them. In the study, the domestic and foreign literature on the military leadership has been reviewed and military decision-making process of the different countries has been introduced and study has been designed by making interviews as a sample with 50 people who had made military leadership. The issues resulting from the literature review that led to wrong decisions of military leaders and the points obtained as a result of interview have been evaluated by comparing. As a result, it has been emerged that the personnel who have made especially military leadership are in tendency of making the wrong decision due to decision traps such as excessive self-confidence, lack of experience, unplanned movement, hasty decision making and prohibitive conditions and also the need for increased situational awareness about this condition has been emerged.

Keywords: military leadership, decision making, military decision making, military decision making traps

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Authors: Norfiza Ibrahim, Norshuhada Shiratuddin, Siti Mahfuzah Sarif

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Decision-making system is used to facilitate people in making the right choice for their important daily activities. For the youth, proper guidance in making important decisions is needed. Their skills in decision-making aid decisions will indirectly affect their future. For that reason, this study focuses on the intelligent aspects in the development of intelligent decision support application. The aid apparently integrates Personality Traits (PT) and Multiple Intelligence (MI) data in development of a computerized personal decision aid for youth named as Youth Personal Decision Aid (Youth PDA). This study is concerned with the aid’s helpfulness based on the hybrid intelligent process. There are four main items involved which are reliability, decision making effort, confidence, as well as decision process awareness. Survey method was applied to the actual user of this system, namely the school and the Institute of Higher Education (IPT)’s students. An establish instrument was used to evaluate the study. The results of the analysis and findings in the assessment indicates a high mean value of the four dimensions in helping Youth PDA to be accepted as a useful tool for the youth in decision-making.

Keywords: decision support, multiple intelligent, personality traits, youth personal decision aid

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Authors: Doyin Afolabi, Phillip Adewole, Oladipupo Sennaike

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Most well-known classifiers, including the decision tree algorithm, can make predictions on balanced datasets efficiently. However, the decision tree algorithm tends to be biased towards imbalanced datasets because of the skewness of the distribution of such datasets. To overcome this problem, this study proposes a weighted decision tree algorithm that aims to remove the bias toward the majority class and prevents the reduction of majority observations in imbalance datasets classification. The proposed weighted decision tree algorithm was tested on three imbalanced datasets- cancer dataset, german credit dataset, and banknote dataset. The specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed decision tree algorithm on the datasets. The evaluation results show that for some of the weights of our proposed decision tree, the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy metrics gave better results compared to that of the ID3 decision tree and decision tree induced with minority entropy for all three datasets.

Keywords: data mining, decision tree, classification, imbalance dataset

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Authors: Harleen Kaur, Deepika Jindal Singla

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Buying decision making is a complicated process, in which consumer’s decision is under the impact of others. The buying decision making is directed in a way that they have to act as customers in the society. Media and family are key socialising agents for adolescents’. Moreover, changes in the socio-cultural environment in India necessitate that adolescents’ influence in family’s buying decision-making should be investigated. In comparison to Western society, Indian is quite different, when compared in terms of family composition and structure, behaviour, values and norms which effect adolescents’ buying decision-making.

Keywords: adolescents, buying behavior, Indian urban families, consumer socialization

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Authors: Ivana Bulog

Abstract:

Decision making is a vital part of the business world and any other field of human endeavor. Which way a business organization will take, and where that way will lead it, depends on broad range of decisions made by managers in the managerial structure. Strategic decisions are of the greatest importance for organizational success. Although much empirical research has been done trying to describe and explain its nature and effectiveness, knowledge about strategic decision making is still incomplete. This paper explores the nature of strategic decision making in particular setting - in Croatian companies. The main focus of this research is on the style that decision makers on strategic management level are following when making decisions of life importance for their companies. Two main decision making style that explain the way decision maker collects and processes available information and performs all the activities in strategic decision making process were empirical tested: rational and intuitive one. Besides analyzing their existence on strategic management level in Croatian companies, their effectiveness is analyzed as well. Results showed that decision makers at strategic management level are following both styles somewhat equally in order to function effectively, and that intuitive style is more effective when considering decisions outcomes.

Keywords: decision making style, decision making effectiveness, strategic decisions, management sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Eva Štěpánková

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The decision-making process is theoretically clearly defined. Generally, it includes the problem identification and analysis, data gathering, goals and criteria setting, alternatives development and optimal alternative choice and its implementation. In practice however, various modifications of the theoretical decision-making process can occur. The managers can consider some of the phases to be too complicated or unfeasible and thus they do not carry them out and conversely some of the steps can be overestimated. The aim of the paper is to reveal and characterize the perception of the individual phases of decision-making process by the managers. The research is concerned with managers in the military environment–commanders. Quantitative survey is focused cross-sectionally in the individual levels of management of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. On the total number of 135 respondents the analysis focuses on which of the decision-making process phases are problematic or not carried out in practice and which are again perceived to be the easiest. Then it is examined the reasons of the findings.

Keywords: decision making, decision making process, decision problems, concrete organization

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Authors: Nasser Y. Mahamoud, Pierre Dehombreux, Hassan E. Robleh

Abstract:

Industrial companies may be confronted with questions about their choice of maintenance policy. This choice must be guided by several numbers of decision criteria or objectives related to their production or service activities but also to their level of development and their investment prospects. A decision-support methodology to choose a maintenance policy (corrective, systematic or conditional preventive, predictive, opportunistic or not) is proposed to facilitate this choice using the main categories of the most important decision criteria. The different steps of this methodology are illustrated using theoretical case: identification of the different maintenance alternatives, determining the structure of the most important categories of the decision criteria, assessing the different maintenance policies on to the criteria by using an ordinal preference relation, and finally ranking the different maintenance policies.

Keywords: maintenance policy, decision criteria, decision-making process, AHP

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Authors: Linda P. M. Pluymen, Mariska M. G. Leeflang, I. Stegeman, Henock G. Yebyo, Anne E. M. Brabers, Patrick M. Bossuyt, E. Dekker, Anke J. Woudstra, Mirjam P. Fransen

Abstract:

Weighing the benefits and harms of colorectal cancer screening can be difficult for individuals. An existing online decision aid was expanded with a benefit-harm analysis to help people make an informed decision about participating in colorectal cancer screening. In a randomized controlled trial, we investigated whether those in the intervention group who used the decision aid with benefit-harm analysis were more certain about their decision than those in the control group who used the decision aid without benefit-harm analysis. Participants were 623 (39% of those invited) men and women aged 45 until 75 years old. Analyses were performed in those 386 participants (62%) who reported to have completed the entire decision aid. No statistically significant differences were observed between intervention and control group in decisional conflict score (mean difference 2.4, 95% CI -0.9, 5.6), clarity of values (mean difference 1.0, 95% CI -4.4, 6.6), deliberation score (mean difference 0.5, 95% CI -0.6, 1.7), anxiety score (mean difference 0.0, 95% CI -0.3, 0.3) and risk perception score (mean difference 0.1, -0.1, 0.3). Adding a benefit-harm analysis to an online decision aid did not improve informed decision making about participating in colorectal cancer screening.

Keywords: benefit-harm analysis, decision aid, informed decision making, personalized decision making

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Authors: Gennady P. Ginkul, Sergey Yu. Soloviov

Abstract:

The article proposes to use so-called "quotation-based algorithm" for simulation of decision making process in distributed expert systems and multi-agent systems. The idea was adopted from the techniques for group decision-making. It is based on the assumption that one expert system to perform its logical inference may use rules from another expert system. The application of the algorithm was demonstrated on the example in which the consolidated decision is the decision that requires minimal quotation.

Keywords: backward chaining inference, distributed expert systems, group decision making, multi-agent systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Seung-Un Chae, Heung-Yul Kim, Sa-Kil Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents the findings of preliminary study on human control performance in case of fire. The relationship between human control and human decision is studied in decision processes and stress model of human in a fire. Human behavior aspects involved in the decision process during a fire incident. The decision processes appear that six of individual perceptual processes: recognition, validation, definition, evaluation, commitment, and reassessment. Then, human may be stressed in order to get an optimal decision for their activity. This paper explores problems in human control processes and stresses in a catastrophic situation. Thus, the future approach will be concerned to reduce stresses and ambiguous irrelevant information.

Keywords: human reliability, decision processes, stress model, fire

Procedia PDF Downloads 986