Search results for: square cavity.
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 731

Search results for: square cavity.

71 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling

Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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70 Feature Point Reduction for Video Stabilization

Authors: Theerawat Songyot, Tham Manjing, Bunyarit Uyyanonvara, Chanjira Sinthanayothin

Abstract:

Corner detection and optical flow are common techniques for feature-based video stabilization. However, these algorithms are computationally expensive and should be performed at a reasonable rate. This paper presents an algorithm for discarding irrelevant feature points and maintaining them for future use so as to improve the computational cost. The algorithm starts by initializing a maintained set. The feature points in the maintained set are examined against its accuracy for modeling. Corner detection is required only when the feature points are insufficiently accurate for future modeling. Then, optical flows are computed from the maintained feature points toward the consecutive frame. After that, a motion model is estimated based on the simplified affine motion model and least square method, with outliers belonging to moving objects presented. Studentized residuals are used to eliminate such outliers. The model estimation and elimination processes repeat until no more outliers are identified. Finally, the entire algorithm repeats along the video sequence with the points remaining from the previous iteration used as the maintained set. As a practical application, an efficient video stabilization can be achieved by exploiting the computed motion models. Our study shows that the number of times corner detection needs to perform is greatly reduced, thus significantly improving the computational cost. Moreover, optical flow vectors are computed for only the maintained feature points, not for outliers, thus also reducing the computational cost. In addition, the feature points after reduction can sufficiently be used for background objects tracking as demonstrated in the simple video stabilizer based on our proposed algorithm.

Keywords: background object tracking, feature point reduction, low cost tracking, video stabilization.

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69 Assessing the Actual Status and Farmer’s Attitude towards Agroforestry in Chiniot, Pakistan

Authors: M. F. Nawaz, S. Gul, T. H. Farooq, M. T. Siddiqui, M. Asif, I. Ahmad, N. K. Niazi

Abstract:

In Pakistan, major demands of fuel wood and timber wood are fulfilled by agroforestry. However, the information regarding economic significance of agroforestry and its productivity in Pakistan is still insufficient and unreliable. Survey of field conditions to examine the agroforestry status at local level helps us to know the future trends and to formulate the policies for sustainable wood supply. The objectives of this research were to examine the actual status and potential of agroforestry and to point out the barriers that are faced by farmers in the adoption of agroforestry. Research was carried out in Chiniot district, Pakistan because it is the famous city for furniture industry that is largely dependent on farm trees. A detailed survey of district Chiniot was carried out from 150 randomly selected farmer respondents using multi-objective oriented and pre-tested questionnaire. It was found that linear tree planting method was more adopted (45%) as compared to linear + interplanting (42%) and/or compact planting (12.6%). Chi-square values at P-value <0.5 showed that age (11.35) and education (17.09) were two more important factors in the quick adoption of agroforestry as compared to land holdings (P-value of 0.7). The major reason of agroforestry adoption was to obtain income, fodder and fuelwood. The most dominant species in farmlands was shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) but since last five years, mostly farmers were growing Sufeida (Eucalyptus camaldulensis), kikar (Acacia nilotica) and popular (Populus deltoides) on their fields due to “Shisham die-back” problem. It was found that agro-forestry can be increased by providing good quality planting material to farmers and improving wood markets.

Keywords: Agroforestry, trees, services, agriculture, farmers.

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68 Estimating Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity from Soil Physical Properties using Neural Networks Model

Authors: B. Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, A.M. Liaghat, S. Sohrabi

Abstract:

Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).

Keywords: Neural network, Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Soil physical properties.

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67 A Spatial Information Network Traffic Prediction Method Based on Hybrid Model

Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

Abstract:

Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: Spatial Information Network, Traffic prediction, Wavelet decomposition, Time series model.

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66 The Impact of Gender Differences on the Expressions of Refusal in Jordanian Arabic

Authors: Hanan Yousef, Nisreen Naji Al-Khawaldeh

Abstract:

The present study investigates the use of the expression of refusal by native speakers of Jordanian Arabic (NSsJA) in different social situations (i.e. invitations, suggestions, and offers). It also investigates the influence of gender on the refusal realization patterns within the Jordanian culture to provide a better insight into the relation between situations, strategies and gender in the Jordanian culture. To that end, a group of 70 participants, including 35 male and 35 female students from different departments at the Hashemite University (HU) participated in this study using mixed methods (i.e. Discourse Completion Test (DCT), interviews and naturally occurring data). Data were analyzed in light of a developed coding scheme. The results showed that NSsJA preferred indirect strategies which mitigate the interaction such as "excuse, reason and, explanation" strategy more than other strategies which aggravate the interaction such as "face-threatening" strategy. Moreover, the analysis of this study has revealed a considerable impact of gender on the use of linguistic forms expressing refusal among NSsJA. Significant differences in the results of the Chi-square test relating the effect of participants' gender indicate that both males and females were conscious of the gender of their interlocutors. The findings provide worthwhile insights into the relation amongst types of communicative acts and the rapport between people in social interaction. They assert that refusal should not be labeled as face threatening act since it does not always pose a threat in some cases especially where refusal is expressed among friends, relatives and family members. They highlight some distinctive culture-specific features of the communicative acts of refusal.

Keywords: Speech act, refusals, semantic formulas, politeness, Jordanian Arabic, mixed methodology, gender.

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65 Experimental and Theoretical Investigation of Rough Rice Drying in Infrared-assisted Hot Air Dryer Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: D. Zare, H. Naderi, A. A. Jafari

Abstract:

Drying characteristics of rough rice (variety of lenjan) with an initial moisture content of 25% dry basis (db) was studied in a hot air dryer assisted by infrared heating. Three arrival air temperatures (30, 40 and 500C) and four infrared radiation intensities (0, 0.2 , 0.4 and 0.6 W/cm2) and three arrival air speeds (0.1, 0.15 and 0.2 m.s-1) were studied. Bending strength of brown rice kernel, percentage of cracked kernels and time of drying were measured and evaluated. The results showed that increasing the drying arrival air temperature and radiation intensity of infrared resulted decrease in drying time. High bending strength and low percentage of cracked kernel was obtained when paddy was dried by hot air assisted infrared dryer. Between this factors and their interactive effect were a significant difference (p<0.01). An intensity level of 0.2 W/cm2 was found to be optimum for radiation drying. Furthermore, in the present study, the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for predicting the moisture content during drying (output parameter for ANN modeling) was investigated. Infrared Radiation intensity, drying air temperature, arrival air speed and drying time were considered as input parameters for the model. An ANN model with two hidden layers with 8 and 14 neurons were selected for studying the influence of transfer functions and training algorithms. The results revealed that a network with the Tansig (hyperbolic tangent sigmoid) transfer function and trainlm (Levenberg-Marquardt) back propagation algorithm made the most accurate predictions for the paddy drying system. Mean square error (MSE) was calculated and found that the random errors were within and acceptable range of ±5% with coefficient of determination (R2) of 99%.

Keywords: Rough rice, Infrared-hot air, Artificial Neural Network

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64 Ordinal Regression with Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics: A Case Study of an Orienteering Race

Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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63 Evaluating the Validity of Computational Fluid Dynamics Model of Dispersion in a Complex Urban Geometry Using Two Sets of Experimental Measurements

Authors: Mohammad R. Kavian Nezhad, Carlos F. Lange, Brian A. Fleck

Abstract:

This research presents the validation study of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the scalar dispersion emitted from rooftop sources around the buildings at the University of Alberta North Campus. The ANSYS CFX code was used to perform the numerical simulation of the wind regime and pollutant dispersion by solving the 3D steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a building-scale high-resolution grid. The validation study was performed in two steps. First, the CFD model performance in 24 cases (eight wind directions and three wind speeds) was evaluated by comparing the predicted flow fields with the available data from the previous measurement campaign designed at the North Campus, using the standard deviation method (SDM), while the estimated results of the numerical model showed maximum average percent errors of approximately 53% and 37% for wind incidents from the North and Northwest, respectively. Good agreement with the measurements was observed for the other six directions, with an average error of less than 30%. In the second step, the reliability of the implemented turbulence model, numerical algorithm, modeling techniques, and the grid generation scheme was further evaluated using the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) dispersion dataset. Different statistical measures, including the fractional bias (FB), the mean geometric bias (MG), and the normalized mean square error (NMSE), were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted dispersion field. Our CFD results are in very good agreement with the field measurements.

Keywords: CFD, plume dispersion, complex urban geometry, validation study, wind flow.

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62 An Experimental Study on Evacuated Tube Solar Collector for Heating of Air in India

Authors: Avadhesh Yadav, V.K. Bajpai

Abstract:

A solar powered air heating system using one ended evacuated tubes is experimentally investigated. A solar air heater containing forty evacuated tubes is used for heating purpose. The collector surface area is about 4.44 m2. The length and outer diameters of the outer glass tube and absorber tube are 1500, 47 and 37 mm, respectively. In this experimental setup, we have a header (heat exchanger) of square shape (190 mm x 190 mm). The length of header is 1500 mm. The header consists of a hollow pipe in the center whose diameter is 60 mm through which the air is made to flow. The experimental setup contains approximately 108 liters of water. Water is working as heat collecting medium which collects the solar heat falling on the tubes. This heat is delivered to the air flowing through the header pipe. This heat flow is due to natural convection and conduction. The outlet air temperature depends upon several factors along with air flow rate and solar radiation intensity. The study has been done for both up-flow and down-flow of air in header in similar weather conditions, at different flow rates. In the present investigations the study has been made to find the effect of intensity of solar radiations and flow rate of air on the out let temperature of the air with time and which flow is more efficient. The obtained results show that the system is highly effective for the heating in this region. Moreover, it has been observed that system is highly efficient for the particular flow rate of air. It was also observed that downflow configuration is more effective than up-flow condition at all flow rates due to lesser losses in down-flow. The results show that temperature differences of upper head and lower head, both of water and surface of pipes on the respective ends is lower in down-flow.

Keywords: air flow direction, Evacuated tube solar collector, solar air heating, solar thermal utilization.

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61 Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment with Modified Diffusion Model

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Prior research has not effectively investigated how the profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors, forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account of the profitability factors. The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive, as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion model.

Keywords: diffusion model, genetic algorithms, nonlinear leastsquares (NLS) model, prediction error.

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60 Exploring Additional Intention Predictors within Dietary Behavior among Type 2 Diabetes

Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya

Abstract:

Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.

Keywords: Theory, intention, predictors, mixed methods design.

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59 Sand Production Modelled with Darcy Fluid Flow Using Discrete Element Method

Authors: M. N. Nwodo, Y. P. Cheng, N. H. Minh

Abstract:

In the process of recovering oil in weak sandstone formations, the strength of sandstones around the wellbore is weakened due to the increase of effective stress/load from the completion activities around the cavity. The weakened and de-bonded sandstone may be eroded away by the produced fluid, which is termed sand production. It is one of the major trending subjects in the petroleum industry because of its significant negative impacts, as well as some observed positive impacts. For efficient sand management therefore, there has been need for a reliable study tool to understand the mechanism of sanding. One method of studying sand production is the use of the widely recognized Discrete Element Method (DEM), Particle Flow Code (PFC3D) which represents sands as granular individual elements bonded together at contact points. However, there is limited knowledge of the particle-scale behavior of the weak sandstone, and the parameters that affect sanding. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of using PFC3D and a simple Darcy flow in understanding the sand production behavior of a weak sandstone. An isotropic tri-axial test on a weak oil sandstone sample was first simulated at a confining stress of 1MPa to calibrate and validate the parallel bond models of PFC3D using a 10m height and 10m diameter solid cylindrical model. The effect of the confining stress on the number of bonds failure was studied using this cylindrical model. With the calibrated data and sample material properties obtained from the tri-axial test, simulations without and with fluid flow were carried out to check on the effect of Darcy flow on bonds failure using the same model geometry. The fluid flow network comprised of every four particles connected with tetrahedral flow pipes with a central pore or flow domain. Parametric studies included the effects of confining stress, and fluid pressure; as well as validating flow rate – permeability relationship to verify Darcy’s fluid flow law. The effect of model size scaling on sanding was also investigated using 4m height, 2m diameter model. The parallel bond model successfully calibrated the sample’s strength of 4.4MPa, showing a sharp peak strength before strain-softening, similar to the behavior of real cemented sandstones. There seems to be an exponential increasing relationship for the bigger model, but a curvilinear shape for the smaller model. The presence of the Darcy flow induced tensile forces and increased the number of broken bonds. For the parametric studies, flow rate has a linear relationship with permeability at constant pressure head. The higher the fluid flow pressure, the higher the number of broken bonds/sanding. The DEM PFC3D is a promising tool to studying the micromechanical behavior of cemented sandstones.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method, fluid flow, parametric study, sand production/bonds failure.

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58 Trend Analysis of Annual Total Precipitation Data in Konya

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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57 Indigenous Dayak People’s Perceptions of Wildlife Loss and Gain Related to Oil Palm Development

Authors: A. Sunkar, A. Saraswati, Y. Santosa

Abstract:

Controversies surrounding the impacts of oil palm plantations have resulted in some heated debates, especially concerning biodiversity loss and indigenous people well-being. The indigenous people of Dayak generally used wildlife to fulfill their daily needs thus were assumed to have experienced negative impacts due to oil palm developments within and surrounding their settlement areas. This study was conducted to identify the characteristics of the Dayak community settled around an oil palm plantation, to determine their perceptions of wildlife loss or gain as the results of the development of oil palm plantations, and to identify the determinant characteristic of the perceptions. The research was conducted on March 2018 in Nanga Tayap and Tajok Kayong Villages, which were located around the oil palm plantation of NTYE of Ketapang, West Kalimantan-Indonesia. Data were collected through in depth-structured interview, using closed and semi-open questionnaires and three-scale Likert statements. Interviews were conducted with 74 respondents using accidental sampling, and categorized into respondents who were dependent on oil palm for their livelihoods and those who were not. Data were analyzed using quantitative statistics method, Likert Scale, Chi-Square Test, Spearman Test, and Mann-Whitney Test. The research found that the indigenous Dayak people were aware of wildlife species loss and gain since the establishment of the plantation. Nevertheless, wildlife loss did not affect their social, economic, and cultural needs since they could find substitutions. It was found that prior to the plantation’s development, the local Dayak communities were already slowly experiencing some livelihood transitions through local village development. The only determinant characteristic of the community that influenced their perceptions of wildlife loss/gain was level of education.

Keywords: Wildlife, oil palm plantations, indigenous Dayak, biodiversity loss and gain.

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56 The Quality Assessment of Seismic Reflection Survey Data Using Statistical Analysis: A Case Study of Fort Abbas Area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan

Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

Abstract:

In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, null hypothesis, seismic lines, seismic reflection survey.

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55 Influence of Loudness Compression on Hearing with Bone Anchored Hearing Implants

Authors: Anja Kurz, Marc Flynn, Tobias Good, Marco Caversaccio, Martin Kompis

Abstract:

Bone Anchored Hearing Implants (BAHI) are  routinely used in patients with conductive or mixed hearing loss, e.g.  if conventional air conduction hearing aids cannot be used. New  sound processors and new fitting software now allow the adjustment  of parameters such as loudness compression ratios or maximum  power output separately. Today it is unclear, how the choice of these  parameters influences aided speech understanding in BAHI users.  In this prospective experimental study, the effect of varying the  compression ratio and lowering the maximum power output in a  BAHI were investigated.  Twelve experienced adult subjects with a mixed hearing loss  participated in this study. Four different compression ratios (1.0; 1.3;  1.6; 2.0) were tested along with two different maximum power output  settings, resulting in a total of eight different programs. Each  participant tested each program during two weeks. A blinded Latin  square design was used to minimize bias.  For each of the eight programs, speech understanding in quiet and  in noise was assessed. For speech in quiet, the Freiburg number test  and the Freiburg monosyllabic word test at 50, 65, and 80 dB SPL  were used. For speech in noise, the Oldenburg sentence test was  administered.  Speech understanding in quiet and in noise was improved  significantly in the aided condition in any program, when compared  to the unaided condition. However, no significant differences were  found between any of the eight programs. In contrast, on a subjective  level there was a significant preference for medium compression  ratios of 1.3 to 1.6 and higher maximum power output.

 

Keywords: Bone Anchored Hearing Implant, Compression, Maximum Power Output, Speech understanding.

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54 Analysis of Noise Level Effects on Signal-Averaged Electrocardiograms

Authors: Chun-Cheng Lin

Abstract:

Noise level has critical effects on the diagnostic performance of signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG), because the true starting and end points of QRS complex would be masked by the residual noise and sensitive to the noise level. Several studies and commercial machines have used a fixed number of heart beats (typically between 200 to 600 beats) or set a predefined noise level (typically between 0.3 to 1.0 μV) in each X, Y and Z lead to perform SAECG analysis. However different criteria or methods used to perform SAECG would cause the discrepancies of the noise levels among study subjects. According to the recommendations of 1991 ESC, AHA and ACC Task Force Consensus Document for the use of SAECG, the determinations of onset and offset are related closely to the mean and standard deviation of noise sample. Hence this study would try to perform SAECG using consistent root-mean-square (RMS) noise levels among study subjects and analyze the noise level effects on SAECG. This study would also evaluate the differences between normal subjects and chronic renal failure (CRF) patients in the time-domain SAECG parameters. The study subjects were composed of 50 normal Taiwanese and 20 CRF patients. During the signal-averaged processing, different RMS noise levels were adjusted to evaluate their effects on three time domain parameters (1) filtered total QRS duration (fQRSD), (2) RMS voltage of the last QRS 40 ms (RMS40), and (3) duration of the low amplitude signals below 40 μV (LAS40). The study results demonstrated that the reduction of RMS noise level can increase fQRSD and LAS40 and decrease the RMS40, and can further increase the differences of fQRSD and RMS40 between normal subjects and CRF patients. The SAECG may also become abnormal due to the reduction of RMS noise level. In conclusion, it is essential to establish diagnostic criteria of SAECG using consistent RMS noise levels for the reduction of the noise level effects.

Keywords: Signal-averaged electrocardiogram, Ventricular latepotentials, Chronic renal failure, Noise level effects.

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53 Effects of Duct Geometry, Thickness and Types of Liners on Transmission Loss for Absorptive Silencers

Authors: M. Kashfi, K. Jahani

Abstract:

Sound attenuation in absorptive silencers has been analyzed in this paper. The structure of such devices is as follows. When the rigid duct of an expansion chamber has been lined by a packed absorptive material under a perforated membrane, incident sound waves will be dissipated by the absorptive liners. This kind of silencer, usually are applicable for medium to high frequency ranges. Several conditions for different absorptive materials, variety in their thicknesses, and different shapes of the expansion chambers have been studied in this paper. Also, graphs of sound attenuation have been compared between empty expansion chamber and duct of silencer with applying liner. Plane waves have been assumed in inlet and outlet regions of the silencer. Presented results that have been achieved by applying finite element method (FEM), have shown the dependence of the sound attenuation spectrum to flow resistivity and the thicknesses of the absorptive materials, and geometries of the cross section (configuration of the silencer). As flow resistivity and thickness of absorptive materials increase, sound attenuation improves. In this paper, diagrams of the transmission loss (TL) for absorptive silencers in five different cross sections (rectangle, circle, ellipse, square, and rounded rectangle as the main geometry) have been presented. Also, TL graphs for silencers using different absorptive material (glass wool, wood fiber, and kind of spongy materials) as liner with three different thicknesses of 5 mm, 15 mm, and 30 mm for glass wool liner have been exhibited. At first, the effect of substances of the absorptive materials with the specific flow resistivity and densities on the TL spectrum, then the effect of the thicknesses of the glass wool, and at last the efficacy of the shape of the cross section of the silencer have been investigated.

Keywords: Transmission loss, absorptive material, flow resistivity, thickness, frequency.

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52 Enhancement of Mechanical and Dissolution Properties of a Cast Magnesium Alloy via Equal Angular Channel Processing

Authors: Tim Dunne, Jiaxiang Ren, Lei Zhao, Peng Cheng, Yi Song, Yu Liu, Wenhan Yue, Xiongwen Yang

Abstract:

Two decades of the Shale Revolution has transforming transformed the global energy market, in part by the adaption of multi-stage dissolvable frac plugs. Magnesium has been favored for the bulk of plugs, requiring development of materials to suit specific field requirements. Herein, the mechanical and dissolution results from equal channel angular pressing (ECAP) of two cast dissolvable magnesium alloy are described. ECAP was selected as a route to increase the mechanical properties of two formulations of dissolvable magnesium, as solutionizing failed. In this study, 1” square cross section samples cast Mg alloys formulations containing rare earth were processed at temperatures ranging from 200 to 350 °C, at a rate of 0.005”/s, with a backpressure from 0 to 70 MPa, in a brass, or brass + graphite sheet. Generally, the yield and ultimate tensile strength (UTS) doubled for all. For formulation DM-2, the yield increased from 100 MPa to 250 MPa; UTS from 175 MPa to 325 MPa, but the strain fell from 2 to 1%. Formulation DM-3 yield increased from 75 MPa to 200 MPa, UTS from 150 MPa to 275 MPa, with strain increasing from 1 to 3%. Meanwhile, ECAP has also been found to reduce the dissolution rate significantly. A microstructural analysis showed grain refinement of the alloy and the movement of secondary phases away from the grain boundary. It is believed that reconfiguration of the grain boundary phases increased the mechanical properties and decreased the dissolution rate. ECAP processing of dissolvable high rare earth content magnesium is possible despite the brittleness of the material. ECAP is a possible processing route to increase mechanical properties for dissolvable aluminum alloys that do not extrude.

Keywords: Equal channel angular processing, dissolvable magnesium, frac plug, mechanical properties.

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51 Influence of Security on Fan Attendance during Nigeria Professional Football League Matches

Authors: B. O. Diyaolu

Abstract:

The stadium transcends a field of play to cultural heritage of a club especially when there is security of life and property and a conducive environment with exciting media facilities, CCTV and adequate field of play. Football fans love watching their clubs’ matches especially when nothing discourages their presence in the stadium. This study investigated the influence of security on fans’ attendance during Nigeria Professional Football League matches. Descriptive survey research design was used and the population consists of all Nigeria Professional Football League fans. Simple random sampling technique was used to pick a state from the six geo-political zones. 600 respondents comprising male and female fans were sampled from the ten selected vendors’ stands in each selected state. A structured questionnaire on Security and Fan attendance scale (SFAS) was used. The instrument consists of two sections. Section A seeks information on demographic data of the respondents, while section B was used to elicit information on security and fans’ attendance. The modified instrument which consists of 20 items has a reliability coefficient of 0.73. The hypothesis was tested at 0.05 significance level. The completed questionnaire was collated, coded and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts and percentage and inferential statistics of chi-square (X2). Findings of this study revealed that adequate security significantly influences fan attendance during Nigeria Professional Football League matches. There is no sport that can develop if the facilities in use are inadequate. Improving the condition of the stadium in Nigeria is paramount to the development of the Nigeria Professional Football League. All stakeholders in the organization of the League must put into consideration the need to improve the standard of the stadium as it will help to increase the attendance of fans during matches. Only the standard ones should be used during matches.

Keywords: Adequate Security, fans attendance, football fans, football stadium, Nigeria Professional Football League.

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50 Exploration of Sweet Potato Cultivar Markets Availability in North West Province, South Africa

Authors: V. M. Mmbengwa, J. R. M. Mabuso, C. P. Du Plooy, S. Laurrie, H. D. van Schalkwyk

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Sweet potato products are necessary for the provision of essential nutrients in every household, regardless of their poverty status. Their consumption appears to be highly influenced by socioeconomic factors, such as malnutrition, food insecurity and unemployment. Therefore, market availability is crucial for these cultivars to resolve some of the socio-economic factors. The aim of the study was to investigate market availability of sweet potato cultivars in the North West Province. In this study, both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies were used. Qualitative methodology was used to explain the quantitative outcomes of the variables. On the other hand, quantitative results were used to test the hypothesis. The study used SPSS software to analyse the data. Crosstabulation and Chi-square statistics were used to obtain the descriptive and inferential analyses, respectively. The study found that the Blesbok cultivar is dominating the markets of the North West Province, with the Monate cultivar dominating in the Bojanala Platinum (75%) and Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati (25%) districts. It is also found that a unit increase in the supply of sweet potato cultivars in both local and district municipal markets is accompanied by a reduced demand of 28% and 33% at district and local markets, respectively. All these results were found to be significant at p<0.05. The results further revealed that in four out of nine local municipality markets, the Blesbok cultivar seems to be solely available in those four local municipal markets of North West Province. It can be concluded that Blesbok, relative to other cultivars, is the most commercialised sweet potato variety and that consumers across this Province are highly aware of it. For other cultivars to assume market prominence in this Province, a well-designed marketing campaign for creating awareness may be required. This campaign may be based on nutritional advantages of different cultivars, of which Blesbok is relatively inferior, compared to orange-fleshed sweet potato varieties.

Keywords: Cultivar, malnutrition, markets, sweet potato.

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49 Performance Analysis of Ferrocement Retrofitted Masonry Wall Units under Cyclic Loading

Authors: Raquib Ahsan, Md. Mahir Asif, Md. Zahidul Alam

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A huge portion of old masonry buildings in Bangladesh are vulnerable to earthquake. In most of the cases these buildings contain unreinforced masonry wall which are most likely to be subjected to earthquake damages. Due to deterioration of mortar joint and aging, shear resistance of these unreinforced masonry walls dwindle. So, retrofitting of these old buildings has become an important issue. Among many researched and experimented techniques, ferrocement retrofitting can be a low cost technique in context of the economic condition of Bangladesh. This study aims at investigating the behavior of ferrocement retrofitted unconfined URM walls under different types of cyclic loading. Four 725 mm × 725 mm masonry wall units were prepared with bricks jointed by stretcher bond with 12.5 mm mortar between two adjacent layers of bricks. To compare the effectiveness of ferrocement retrofitting a particular type wire mesh was used in this experiment which is 20 gauge woven wire mesh with 12.5 mm × 12.5 mm square opening. After retrofitting with ferrocement these wall units were tested by applying cyclic deformation along the diagonals of the specimens. Then a comparative study was performed between the retrofitted specimens and control specimens for both partially reversed cyclic load condition and cyclic compression load condition. The experiment results show that ultimate load carrying capacities of ferrocement retrofitted specimens are 35% and 27% greater than the control specimen under partially reversed cyclic loading and cyclic compression respectively. And before failure the deformations of ferrocement retrofitted specimens are 43% and 33% greater than the control specimen under reversed cyclic loading and cyclic compression respectively. Therefore, the test results show that the ultimate load carrying capacity and ductility of ferrocement retrofitted specimens have improved.

Keywords: Cyclic compression, ferrocement, masonry wall, partially reversed cyclic load, retrofitting.

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48 Generative Design of Acoustical Diffuser and Absorber Elements Using Large-Scale Additive Manufacturing

Authors: S. Aziz, B. Alexander, C. Gengnagel, S. Weinzierl

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This paper explores a generative design, simulation, and optimization workflow for the integration of acoustical diffuser and/or absorber geometry with embedded coupled Helmholtz-resonators for full scale 3D printed building components. Large-scale additive manufacturing in conjunction with algorithmic CAD design tools enables a vast amount of control when creating geometry. This is advantageous regarding the increasing demands of comfort standards for indoor spaces and the use of more resourceful and sustainable construction methods and materials. The presented methodology highlights these new technological advancements and offers a multimodal and integrative design solution with the potential for an immediate application in the AEC-Industry. In principle, the methodology can be applied to a wide range of structural elements that can be manufactured by additive manufacturing processes. The current paper focuses on a case study of an application for a biaxial load-bearing beam grillage made of reinforced concrete, which allows for a variety of applications through the combination of additive prefabricated semi-finished parts and in-situ concrete supplementation. The semi-prefabricated parts or formwork bodies form the basic framework of the supporting structure and at the same time have acoustic absorption and diffusion properties that are precisely acoustically programmed for the space underneath the structure. To this end, a hybrid validation strategy is being explored using a digital and cross-platform simulation environment, verified with physical prototyping. The iterative workflow starts with the generation of a parametric design model for the acoustical geometry using the algorithmic visual scripting editor Grasshopper3D inside the Building Information Modeling (BIM) software Revit. Various geometric attributes (i.e., bottleneck and cavity dimensions) of the resonator are parameterized and fed to a numerical optimization algorithm which can modify the geometry with the goal of increasing absorption at resonance and increasing the bandwidth of the effective absorption range. Using Rhino.Inside and LiveLink for Revit the generative model was imported directly into the Multiphysics simulation environment COMSOL. The geometry was further modified and prepared for simulation in a semi-automated process. The incident and scattered pressure fields were simulated from which the surface normal absorption coefficients were calculated. This reciprocal process was repeated to further optimize the geometric parameters. Subsequently the numerical models were compared to a set of 3D concrete printed physical twin models which were tested in a .25 m x .25 m impedance tube. The empirical results served to improve the starting parameter settings of the initial numerical model. The geometry resulting from the numerical optimization was finally returned to grasshopper for further implementation in an interdisciplinary study.

Keywords: Acoustical design, additive manufacturing, computational design, multimodal optimization.

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47 The Necessity of Optimized Management on Surface Water Sources of Zayanderood Basin

Authors: A. Gandomkar, K. Fouladi

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One of the efficient factors in comprehensive development of an area is to provide water sources and on the other hand the appropriate management of them. Population growth and nourishment security for such a population necessitate the achievement of constant development besides the reforming of traditional management in order to increase the profit of sources; In this case, the constant exploitation of sources for the next generations will be considered in this program. The achievement of this development without the consideration and possibility of water development will be too difficult. Zayanderood basin with 41500 areas in square kilometers contains 7 sub-basins and 20 units of hydrologic. In this basin area, from the entire environment descending, just a small part will enter into the river currents and the rest will be out of efficient usage by various ways. The most important surface current of this basin is Zayanderood River with 403 kilometers length which is originated from east slopes of Zagros mount and after draining of this basin area it will enter into Gaavkhooni pond. The existence of various sources and consumptions of water in Zayanderood basin, water transfer of the other basin areas into this basin, of course the contradiction between the upper and lower beneficiaries, the existence of worthwhile natural ecosystems such as Gaavkhooni swamp in this basin area and finally, the drought condition and lack of water in this area all necessitate the existence of comprehensive management of water sources in this central basin area of Iran as this method is a kind of management which considers the development and the management of water sources as an equilibrant way to increase the economical and social benefits. In this study, it is tried to survey the network of surface water sources of basin in upper and lower sections; at the most, according to the difficulties and deficiencies of an efficient management of water sources in this basin area, besides the difficulties of water draining and the destructive phenomenon of flood-water, the appropriate guidelines according to the region conditions are presented in order to prevent the deviation of water in upper sections and development of regions in lower sections of Zayanderood dam.

Keywords: Zayanderood Basin, Efficient Management, Hydrology Climate.

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46 Ethnobotanical Study on the Usage of Toxic Plants in Traditional Medicine in the City Center of Tlemcen, Algeria

Authors: Nassima Elyebdri, Asma Boumediou, Soumia Addoun

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Traditional medicine has been part of the Algerian culture for decades. In particular, the city of Tlemcen still retains practices based on phytotherapy to the present day, as this kind of medicine fulfills the needs of its followers among the local population. The toxic plants contain diverse natural substances which supplied a lot of medicine in the pharmaceutical industry. In order to explore new medicinal sources among toxic plants, an ethnobotanical study was carried out on the use of these plants by the population, at Emir Abdelkader Square of the city of Tlemcen, a rather busy place with a high number of traditional health practitioners and herbalists. This is a descriptive and transversal study aimed at estimating the frequency of using toxic plants among the studied population, for a period of 4 months. The information was collected, using self-anonymous questionnaires, and analyzed by the IBM SPSS Statistics software used for statistical analysis. A sample of 200 people, including 120 women and 80 men, were interviewed. The mean age was 41 ± 16 years. Among those questioned, 83.5% used plants; 8% of them used toxic plants and 35% used plants that can be toxic under certain conditions. Some improvements were observed in 88% of the cases where toxic plants were used. 80 medicinal plants, belonging to 36 botanical families, were listed, identified and classified. The most frequent indications for these plants were for respiratory diseases in 64.7% of cases, and for digestive disorders in 51.5% of cases. 11% of these plants are toxic, 26% could be toxic under certain conditions. Among toxics plants, the most common ones are Berberis vulgaris with 5.4%, indicated in the treatment of uterine fibroids and thyroid, Rhamnus alaternus with 4.8% for hepatic jaundice, Nerium oleander with 3% for hemorrhoids, Ruta chalepensis with 1.2%, indicated for digestive disorders and dysmenorrhea, and Viscum album with 1.2%, indicated for respiratory diseases. The most common plants that could be toxic are Mentha pulegium (15.6%), Eucalyptus globulus (11.4%), and Pimpinella anisum (10.2%). This study revealed interesting results on the use of toxic plants, which are likely to serve as a basis for further ethno-pharmacological investigations in order to get new drug sources.

Keywords: Ethnobotany, phytotherapy, Tlemcen, toxic plants.

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45 A Hybrid Image Fusion Model for Generating High Spatial-Temporal-Spectral Resolution Data Using OLI-MODIS-Hyperion Satellite Imagery

Authors: Yongquan Zhao, Bo Huang

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Spatial, Temporal, and Spectral Resolution (STSR) are three key characteristics of Earth observation satellite sensors; however, any single satellite sensor cannot provide Earth observations with high STSR simultaneously because of the hardware technology limitations of satellite sensors. On the other hand, a conflicting circumstance is that the demand for high STSR has been growing with the remote sensing application development. Although image fusion technology provides a feasible means to overcome the limitations of the current Earth observation data, the current fusion technologies cannot enhance all STSR simultaneously and provide high enough resolution improvement level. This study proposes a Hybrid Spatial-Temporal-Spectral image Fusion Model (HSTSFM) to generate synthetic satellite data with high STSR simultaneously, which blends the high spatial resolution from the panchromatic image of Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the high temporal resolution from the multi-spectral image of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the high spectral resolution from the hyper-spectral image of Hyperion to produce high STSR images. The proposed HSTSFM contains three fusion modules: (1) spatial-spectral image fusion; (2) spatial-temporal image fusion; (3) temporal-spectral image fusion. A set of test data with both phenological and land cover type changes in Beijing suburb area, China is adopted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results indicate that HSTSFM can produce fused image that has good spatial and spectral fidelity to the reference image, which means it has the potential to generate synthetic data to support the studies that require high STSR satellite imagery.

Keywords: Hybrid spatial-temporal-spectral fusion, high resolution synthetic imagery, least square regression, sparse representation, spectral transformation.

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44 Reduction of Plants Biodiversity in Hyrcanian Forest by Coal Mining Activities

Authors: Mahsa Tavakoli, Seyed Mohammad Hojjati, Yahya Kooch

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Considering that coal mining is one of the important industrial activities, it may cause damages to environment. According to the author’s best knowledge, the effect of traditional coal mining activities on plant biodiversity has not been investigated in the Hyrcanian forests. Therefore, in this study, the effect of coal mining activities on vegetation and tree diversity was investigated in Hyrcanian forest, North Iran. After filed visiting and determining the mine, 16 plots (20×20 m2) were established by systematic-randomly (60×60 m2) in an area of 4 ha (200×200 m2-mine entrance placed at center). An area adjacent to the mine was not affected by the mining activity, and it is considered as the control area. In each plot, the data about trees such as number and type of species were recorded. The biodiversity of vegetation cover was considered 5 square sub-plots (1 m2) in each plot. PAST software and Ecological Methodology were used to calculate Biodiversity indices. The value of Shannon Wiener and Simpson diversity indices for tree cover in control area (1.04±0.34 and 0.62±0.20) was significantly higher than mining area (0.78±0.27 and 0.45±0.14). The value of evenness indices for tree cover in the mining area was significantly lower than that of the control area. The value of Shannon Wiener and Simpson diversity indices for vegetation cover in the control area (1.37±0.06 and 0.69±0.02) was significantly higher than the mining area (1.02±0.13 and 0.50±0.07). The value of evenness index in the control area was significantly higher than the mining area. Plant communities are a good indicator of the changes in the site. Study about changes in vegetation biodiversity and plant dynamics in the degraded land can provide necessary information for forest management and reforestation of these areas.

Keywords: Vegetation biodiversity, species composition, traditional coal mining, caspian forest.

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43 Effect of Tethers Tension Force in the Behavior of a Tension Leg Platform Subjected to Hydrodynamic Force

Authors: Amr R. El-Gamal, Ashraf Essa, Ayman Ismail

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The tension leg platform (TLP) is one of the compliant structures which are generally used for deep water oil exploration. With respect to the horizontal degrees of freedom, it behaves like a floating structure moored by vertical tethers which are pretension due to the excess buoyancy of the platform, whereas with respect to the vertical degrees of freedom, it is stiff and resembles a fixed structure and is not allowed to float freely. In the current study, a numerical study for square TLP using modified Morison equation was carried out in the time domain with water particle kinematics using Airy’s linear wave theory to investigate the effect of changing the tether tension force on the stiffness matrix of TLP's, the dynamic behavior of TLP's; and on the fatigue stresses in the cables. The effect was investigated for different parameters of the hydrodynamic forces such as wave periods, and wave heights. The numerical study takes into consideration the effect of coupling between various degrees of freedom. The stiffness of the TLP was derived from a combination of hydrostatic restoring forces and restoring forces due to cables. Nonlinear equation was solved using Newmark’s beta integration method. Only uni-directional waves in the surge direction was considered in the analysis. It was found that for short wave periods (i.e. 10 sec.), the surge response consisted of small amplitude oscillations about a displaced position that is significantly dependent on tether tension force, wave height; whereas for longer wave periods, the surge response showed high amplitude oscillations that is significantly dependent on wave height, and that special attention should be given to tethers fatigue because of their high tensile static and dynamic stress.

Keywords: Tethers tension, tension leg platforms, hydrodynamic wave forces, wave characteristic.

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42 Spatial Variation of WRF Model Rainfall Prediction over Uganda

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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