Search results for: source of risk.

Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Cheng-Wu Chen, Ken Yeh, Han-Hsi Liang

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Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.

Keywords: Fuzzy risk analysis, life cycle impact assessment, fuzzy logic, environmental impact assessment

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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Authors: Bandaris Shankar, Yohannes Yirga

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In this paper, the problem of heat and mass transfer in unsteady MHD boundary-layer flow of nanofluids over stretching sheet with a non uniform heat source/sink is considered. The unsteadiness in the flow and temperature is caused by the time-dependent stretching velocity and surface temperature. The unsteady boundary layer equations are transformed to a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations and solved numerically using Keller box method. The velocity, temperature, and concentration profiles were obtained and utilized to compute the skin-friction coefficient, local Nusselt number, and local Sherwood number for different values of the governing parameters viz. solid volume fraction parameter, unsteadiness parameter, magnetic field parameter, Schmidt number, space-dependent and temperature-dependent parameters for heat source/sink. A comparison of the numerical results of the present study with previously published data revealed an excellent agreement.

Keywords: Manetohydrodynamics, nanofluid, non-uniform heat source/sink, unsteady.

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: Scaffoldings, health and safety at work, temperature, wind speed.

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Authors: Tusharkanta Das, Tumbanath Samantara, Sukanta Kumar Sahoo

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Unsteady effects of MHD free convection flow past in an infinite vertical plate with heat source in presence of radiation with reference to all critical parameters that appear in field equations are studied in this paper. The governing equations are developed by usual Boussinesq’s approximation. The problem is solved by using perturbation technique. The results are obtained for velocity, temperature, Nusselt number and skin-friction. The effects of magnetic parameter, prandtl number, Grashof number, permeability parameter, heat source/sink parameter and radiation parameter are discussed on flow characteristics and shown by means of graphs and tables.

Keywords: Heat transfer, radiation, MHD, free convection, porous medium, suction.

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Authors: Nargess Mottaghi Golshan, Siti Zaleha Abdul Rasid

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Purpose:This paper aims to gain insights to the influential factors of ERM adoptions by public listed firms in Malaysia. Findings:The two factors of financial leverage and auditor type were found to be significant influential factors for ERM adoption. In other words the findings indicated that firms with higher financial leverage and with a Big Four auditor are more likely to have a form of ERM framework in place. Originality/Value:Since there are relatively few studies conducted in this area and specially in developing economies like Malaysia, this study will broaden the scope of literature by providing novel empirical evidence.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, risk, public listed company.

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Authors: Fathi Taibi

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Measuring the reusability of Object-Oriented (OO) program code is important to ensure a successful and timely adaptation and integration of the reused code in new software projects. It has become even more relevant with the availability of huge amounts of open-source projects. Reuse saves cost, increases the speed of development and improves software reliability. Measuring this reusability is not s straight forward process due to the variety of metrics and qualities linked to software reuse and the lack of comprehensive empirical studies to support the proposed metrics or models. In this paper, a conceptual model is proposed to measure the reusability of OO program code. A comprehensive set of metrics is used to compute the most significant factors of reusability and an empirical investigation is conducted to measure the reusability of the classes of randomly selected open-source Java projects. Additionally, the impact of using inner and anonymous classes on the reusability of their enclosing classes is assessed. The results obtained are thoroughly analyzed to identify the factors behind lack of reusability in open-source OO program code and the impact of nesting on it.

Keywords: Code reuse, Low Complexity, Empirical Analysis, Modularity, Software Metrics, Understandability.

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Authors: Mahmoud Miri, Soleiman Maramaee

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Because of architectural condition and structure application, sometimes mass source and stiffness source are not coincidence, and the structure is irregular. The structure is also might be asymmetric as an asymmetric bracing in plan which leads to unbalance distribution of stiffness or because of unbalance distribution of the mass. Both condition lead to eccentricity and torsion in the structure. The deficiency of ordinary code to evaluate the performance of steel structures against earthquake has been caused designing based on performance level or capacity spectrum be used. By using the mentioned methods it is possible to design a structure that its behavior against different earthquakes be predictive. In this article 5- story buildings with different percentage of asymmetric which is because of stiffness changes have been designed. The static and dynamic nonlinear analysis under three acceleration recording has been done. Finally performance level of the structure has been evaluated.

Keywords: Seismic analysis, torsion, asymmetric, irregular building, stiffness source.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

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Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: K. Jitkue, W. Srisang, C. Yaiprasert, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aims at using multi-source data to monitor coral biodiversity and coral bleaching. We used coral reef at Racha Islands, Phuket as a study area. There were three sources of data: coral diversity, sensor based data and satellite data.

Keywords: Coral reefs, Remote sensing, Sea surfacetemperatue, Satellite imagery.

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Authors: Abimbola Motunrayo Folami, Ibironke Titilayo Enitan, Feroz Mohomed Swalaha

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Water is a vital resource that is important in ensuring the growth and development of any country. To sustain the basic human needs and the demands for agriculture, industry, conservational and ecosystem, enough quality and quantity water is needed. Contamination of water resources is now a global and public health concern. Hence, this study assessed the water quality of Ndawuse River by measuring the physicochemical parameters and heavy metals concentrations of the river using standard methods. In total, 16 surface water samples were obtained from five locations along the river, from upstream to downstream as well as samples from the dumpsite. The results obtained were compared with the standard limits set by both the World Health Organization and the Federal Environmental Protection Agency for domestic purposes. The results of the measured parameters indicated that biological oxygen demand (85.88 mg/L), turbidity (44.51 NTU), Iron (0.014 - 3.511 mg /L) and chromium (0.078 - 0.14 mg /L) were all above the standard limits. The results further showed that the quality of surface water is being significantly affected by human activities around the Ndawuse River which could pose an adverse health risk to several communities that rely on this river as their primary source of water. Therefore, there is a need for strict enforcement of environmental laws to protect the aquatic ecosystem and to avoid long term cumulative exposure risk that heavy metals may pose on human health.

Keywords: Abuja, contaminants, heavy metals, Ndawuse River, Nigeria, surface water.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

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This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of health risk assessment for a dumping site of lead battery smelter factory. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, lead battery smelter factory, health risk assessment.

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Authors: Leila Maleki, Ahmad Esmali Kooraneh, Hossein Taghi Derakhshi

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Neural activity in the human brain starts from the early stages of prenatal development. This activity or signals generated by the brain are electrical in nature and represent not only the brain function but also the status of the whole body. At the present moment, three methods can record functional and physiological changes within the brain with high temporal resolution of neuronal interactions at the network level: the electroencephalogram (EEG), the magnet oencephalogram (MEG), and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI); each of these has advantages and shortcomings. EEG recording with a large number of electrodes is now feasible in clinical practice. Multichannel EEG recorded from the scalp surface provides very valuable but indirect information about the source distribution. However, deep electrode measurements yield more reliable information about the source locations intracranial recordings and scalp EEG are used with the source imaging techniques to determine the locations and strengths of the epileptic activity. As a source localization method, Low Resolution Electro-Magnetic Tomography (LORETA) is solved for the realistic geometry based on both forward methods, the Boundary Element Method (BEM) and the Finite Difference Method (FDM). In this paper, we review the findings EEG- LORETA about epilepsy.

Keywords: Epilepsy, EEG, EEG- Loreta, loreta analysis.

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Authors: Luke McDonagh

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Over the past three decades, free and open source software (FOSS) programmers have developed new, innovative and legally binding licences that have in turn enabled the creation of innumerable pieces of everyday software, including Linux, Mozilla Firefox and Open Office. That FOSS has been highly successful in competing with 'closed source software' (e.g. Microsoft Office) is now undeniable, but in noting this success, it is important to examine in detail why this system of FOSS has been so successful. One key reason is the existence of networks or communities of programmers, who are bound together by a key shared social norm of 'reciprocity'. At the same time, these FOSS networks are not unitary – they are highly diverse and there are large divergences of opinion between members regarding which licences are generally preferable: some members favour the flexible ‘free’ or 'no copyleft' licences, such as BSD and MIT, while other members favour the ‘strong open’ or 'strong copyleft' licences such as GPL. This paper argues that without both the existence of the shared norm of reciprocity and the diversity of licences, it is unlikely that the innovative legal framework provided by FOSS would have succeeded to the extent that it has.

Keywords: Open source, software, licences, reciprocity, networks.

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: Assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title.

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: Cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution.

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Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

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The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family of bivariate distributions, multi-source ordering, materials demand quantity, recency, ordering time.

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Authors: Chien-Lung Chen, Jeng-Lin Tsai, Feng-Chao Chung, Su-Ching Kuo, Kuo-Hsin Tseng, Pei-Hsuan Kuo, Li-Ying Hsieh, Ying I. Tsai

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This study applied the Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient model (GTx) to simulate the particulate matter concentrations and the source apportionments at Nanzih Air Quality Monitoring Station in southern Taiwan from November 2007 to February 2008. The correlation coefficient between the observed and the calculated daily PM10 concentrations is 0.5 and the absolute bias of the PM10 concentrations is 24%. The simulated PM10 concentrations matched well with the observed data. Although the emission rate of PM10 was dominated by area sources (58%), the results of source apportionments indicated that the primary sources for PM10 at Nanzih Station were point sources (42%), area sources (20%) and then upwind boundary concentration (14%). The obvious difference of PM10 source apportionment between episode and non-episode days was upwind boundary concentrations which contributed to 20% and 11% PM10 sources, respectively. The gas-particle conversion of secondary aerosol and long range transport played crucial roles on the PM10 contribution to a receptor.

Keywords: back trajectory model, particulate matter, sourceapportionment

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Authors: Joanna Błach, Anna Doś, Maria Gorczyńska, Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala

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Financial innovations can be regarded as the cause and the effect of the evolution of the financial system. Most of financial innovations are created by various financial institutions for their own purposes and needs. However, due to their diversity, financial innovations can be also applied by various business entities (other than financial institutions). This paper focuses on the potential application of financial innovations by non-financial companies. It is assumed that financial innovations may be effectively applied in all fields of corporate financial decisions integrating financial management with the risk management process. Appropriate application of financial innovations may enhance the development of the company and increase its value by improving its financial situation and reducing the level of risk. On the other hand, misused financial innovations may become the source of extra risk for the company threatening its further operation. The main objective of the paper is to identify the major types of financial innovations offered to non-financial companies by the banking system in Poland. It also aims at identifying the main factors determining the creation of financial innovations in the banking system in Poland and indicating future directions of their development. This paper consists of conceptual and empirical part. Conceptual part based on theoretical study is focused on the determinants of the process of financial innovations and their application by the nonfinancial companies. Theoretical study is followed by the empirical research based on the analysis of the actual offer of the 20 biggest banks operating in Poland with regard to financial innovations offered to SMEs and large corporations. These innovations are classified according to the main functions of the integrated financial management, such as financing, investment, working capital management and risk management. Empirical study has proved that the biggest banks operating in the Polish market offer to their business customers many types and classes of financial innovations. This offer appears vast and adequate to the needs and purposes of the Polish non-financial companies. It was observed that financial innovations pertained to financing decisions dominate in the banks’ offer. However, due to high diversification of the offered financial innovations, business customers may effectively apply them in all fields and areas of integrated financial management. It should be underlined, that the banks’ offer is highly dispersed, which may limit the implementation of financial innovations in the corporate finance. It would be also recommended for the banks operating in the Polish market to intensify the education campaign aiming at increasing knowledge about financial innovations among business customers.

Keywords: Banking products and services, banking sector in Poland, corporate financial management, financial innovations, theory of innovation.

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Authors: Gbenga M. Ayininuola, Olasunkanmi A. Adekitan

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Calcined kaolinite clay (CKC) is a pozzolanic material that is current drawing research attention. This work investigates the conditions for the best performance of a CKC from a kaolinite clay source in Ajebo, Abeokuta (southwest Nigeria) known for its commercial availability. Samples from this source were subjected to X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). XRD shows that kaolinite is the main mineral in the clay source. This mineral is responsible for the pozzolanic behavior of CKC. DSC indicates that the transformation from the clay to CKC occurred between 550 and 750 ^oC. Using this temperature range, clay samples were milled and different CKC samples were produced in an electric muffle furnace using temperatures of 550, 600, 650, 700, 750 and 800 ^oC respectively for 1 hour each. This was also repeated for 2 hours. The degree of de-hydroxylation (d_tg) and strength activity index (SAI) were also determined for each of the CKC samples. The d_tg and SAI tests were repeated two more times for each sample and averages were taken. Results showed that peak d_tg occurred at 750 ^oC for 1 hour calcining combination (94.27%) whereas marginal differences were recorded at some lower temperatures (90.97% for 650 ^oC for 2 hours; 91.05% for 700 ^oC for 1 hour and 92.77% for 700 ^oC for 2 hours). Optimum SAI was reported at 700 ^oC for 1 hour (99.05%). Rating SAI as a better parameter than d_tg, 700 ^oC for 1 hour combination was adopted as the best calcining condition. The paper recommends the adoption of this clay source for pozzolan production by adopting the calcining conditions established in this work.

Keywords: Calcined kaolinite clay, calcination, optimum-calcining conditions, pozzolanity.

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Authors: Rehan Jamil, Irfan Jamil, Ming Li, Zhao Jinquan

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Energy is the important source for the development of the society and it‘s the basic support of national economy and the base for human living. As the development of economy, abrupt increase of population and continuous improvement of living standards, the demand of energy increases continuously, which caused the impetuous scramble of energy source in the world, and urged the attention of the countries for current status and development trends of energy.

Keywords: Energy, Energy Supply Situation, Energy Production & Consumption.

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Authors: Jiann-Ming Wu, Hsiao-Chang Chen, Chun-Chang Wu, Pei-Hsun Hsu

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This work explores blind image deconvolution by recursive function approximation based on supervised learning of neural networks, under the assumption that a degraded image is linear convolution of an original source image through a linear shift-invariant (LSI) blurring matrix. Supervised learning of neural networks of radial basis functions (RBF) is employed to construct an embedded recursive function within a blurring image, try to extract non-deterministic component of an original source image, and use them to estimate hyper parameters of a linear image degradation model. Based on the estimated blurring matrix, reconstruction of an original source image from a blurred image is further resolved by an annealed Hopfield neural network. By numerical simulations, the proposed novel method is shown effective for faithful estimation of an unknown blurring matrix and restoration of an original source image.

Keywords: Blind image deconvolution, linear shift-invariant(LSI), linear image degradation model, radial basis functions (rbf), recursive function, annealed Hopfield neural networks.

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Authors: Ruth Lorivi, Jianzheng Li, John J. Ambuchi, Kaiwen Deng

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Nitrogen removal from wastewater is accomplished by nitrification and denitrification processes. Successful denitrification requires carbon, therefore, if placed after biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and nitrification process, a carbon source has to be re-introduced into the water. To avoid adding a carbon source, denitrification is usually placed before BOD and nitrification processes. This process however involves recycling the nitrified effluent. In this study wood chips were used as internal carbon source which enabled placement of denitrification after BOD and nitrification process without effluent recycling. To investigate the efficiency of a wood packed aerobic-anaerobic baffled reactor on carbon and nutrients removal from domestic wastewater, a three compartment baffled reactor was presented. Each of the three compartments was packed with 329 g wood chips 1x1cm acting as an internal carbon source for denitrification. The proposed mode of operation was aerobic-anoxic-anaerobic (OAA) with no effluent recycling. The operating temperature, hydraulic retention time (HRT), dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were 24 ± 2 ℃, 24 h, less than 4 mg/L and 7 ± 1 respectively. The removal efficiencies of chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N) and total nitrogen (TN) attained was 99, 87 and 83% respectively. TN removal rate was limited by nitrification as 97% of ammonia converted into nitrate and nitrite was denitrified. These results show that application of wood chips in wastewater treatment processes is an efficient internal carbon source. 

Keywords: Aerobic-anaerobic baffled reactor, denitrification, nitrification, wood chip.

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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Authors: E. S. Gower, T. Tsalaile, E. Rakgati, M. O. J. Hawksford

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A frequency grouping approach for multi-channel instantaneous blind source separation (I-BSS) of convolutive mixtures is proposed for a lower net residual inter-symbol interference (ISI) and inter-channel interference (ICI) than the conventional short-time Fourier transform (STFT) approach. Starting in the time domain, STFTs are taken with overlapping windows to convert the convolutive mixing problem into frequency domain instantaneous mixing. Mixture samples at the same frequency but from different STFT windows are grouped together forming unique frequency groups. The individual frequency group vectors are input to the I-BSS algorithm of choice, from which the output samples are dispersed back to their respective STFT windows. After applying the inverse STFT, the resulting time domain signals are used to construct the complete source estimates via the weighted overlap-add method (WOLA). The proposed algorithm is tested for source deconvolution given two mixtures, and simulated along with the STFT approach to illustrate its superiority for fairly motionless sources.

Keywords: Blind source separation, short-time Fouriertransform, weighted overlap-add method

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: Benjamin Anderson-Sackaney, Amr Abdel-Dayem

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This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent source camera identification (SCI) systems. Then, the performance of various sensor pattern noise (SPN) estimators was experimentally assessed, under common photo response non-uniformity (PRNU) frameworks. The experiments used 1350 natural and 900 flat-field images, captured by 18 individual cameras. 12 different experiments, grouped into three sets, were conducted. The results were analyzed using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The experimental results demonstrated that combining the basic SPN estimator with a wavelet-based filtering scheme provides promising results. However, the phase SPN estimator fits better with both patch-based (BM3D) and anisotropic diffusion (AD) filtering schemes.

Keywords: Sensor pattern noise, source camera identification, photo response non-uniformity, anisotropic diffusion, peak to correlation energy ratio.

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Authors: M. Zielina, W. Dabrowski, E. Radziszewska-Zielina

Abstract:

Several different cements have been tested to evaluate their potential to leach calcium, chromium and aluminum ions in soft water environment. The research allows comparing some different cements in order to the potential risk of water contamination. This can be done only in the same environment. To reach the results in reasonable short time intervals and to make heavy metals measurements with high accuracy, demineralized water was used. In this case the conditions of experiments are far away from the water supply practice, but short time experiments and measurably high concentrations of elements in the water solution are an important advantage. Moreover leaching mechanisms can be recognized, our experiments reported here refer to this kind of cements evaluation.

Keywords: Concrete corrosion, hydrogen sulfide, odors, reinforced concrete sewers, sewerage.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

Abstract:

Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: Aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, Tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance.

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