Search results for: risk assessment model

Authors: Daniel A. Montoya, Marta L. Tostes

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This investigation aims at analyzing and determining the relation between two very important variables in the human resource management: The organizational climate and the performance assessment. This study aims at contributing with knowledge in the search of the relation between the mentioned variables because the literature still does not provide solid evidence to this respect and the cases revised are incipient to reach conclusions enabling a typology about this relation.To this regard, a correlational and cross-sectional perspective was adopted in which quantitative and qualitative techniques were chosen with the total of the workers of the tourist service company PTS Peru. In order to measure the organizational climate, the OCQ (Organization Climate Questionnaire) from was used; it has 50 items and measures 9 dimensions of the Organizational Climate. Also, to assess performance, a questionnaire with 21 items and 6 dimensions was designed. As a means of assessment, a focus group was prepared and was applied to a worker in every area of the company. Additionally, interviews to human resources experts were conducted. The results of the investigation show a clear relation between the organizational climate and the personnel performance assessment as well as a relation between the nine dimensions of the organizational climate and the work performance in general and with some of its dimensions.

Keywords: Job performance, human resource management, organization climate, performance assessment.

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Authors: Peng Mei, Yan-Jun Qi, Yu Cui, Song Lu, He-Ping Zhang

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A lot of computer-based methods have been developed to assess the evacuation capability (EC) of high-rise buildings. Because softwares are time-consuming and not proper for on scene applications, we adopted two methods, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS), for EC assessment of a high-rise building in Jinan. The EC scores obtained with the two methods and the evacuation time acquired with Pathfinder 2009 for floors 47-60 of the building were compared with each other. The results show that FAHP performs better than TOPSIS for EC assessment of high-rise buildings, especially in the aspect of dealing with the effect of occupant type and distance to exit on EC, tackling complex problem with multi-level structure of criteria, and requiring less amount of computation. However, both FAHP and TOPSIS failed to appropriately handle the situation where the exit width changes while occupants are few.

Keywords: Evacuation capability assessment, FAHP, high-rise buildings, TOPSIS.

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Authors: Jae-Young Lee, Woo-Young Jung, Myeong-Jun Nam

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Water hammer is a hydraulic transient problem which is commonly encountered in the penstocks of hydropower plants. The numerical model was developed to estimate the transient behavior of pressure waves in pipe systems. The computational algorithm was proposed to model the water hammer phenomenon in a pipe system with pump shutdown at midstream and sudden valve closure at downstream. To predict the pressure head and flow velocity as a function of time as a result of rapidly closing a valve and pump shutdown, two boundary conditions at the ends considering pump operation and valve control can be implemented as specified equations of the pressure head and flow velocity based on the characteristics method. It was shown that the effects of transient flow make it determine the needs for protection devices, such as surge tanks, surge relief valves, or air valves, at various points in the system against overpressure and low pressure. It produced reasonably good performance with the results of the proposed transient model for pipeline systems. The proposed numerical model can be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydropower plants due to water hammer.

Keywords: Water hammer, hydraulic transient, pipe systems, characteristics method.

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Authors: Sihao Lin, Bo Shen, Xuexiang Dai, Xuyan Xu, Zhenyi Wu, Xianzhe Zeng

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Infrared Thermography (IRT) has been little documented in the objective measurement of ergonomic exposure. We aimed to examine the association between different ergonomic exposures and low back skin temperature measured by IRT. A total of 114 subjects among sedentary students, sports students and cleaning workers were selected as different ergonomic exposure levels. Low back skin temperature was measured by IRT before and post ergonomic exposure. Ergonomic exposure was assessed by Quick Exposure Check (QEC) and quantitative scores were calculated on the low back. Multiple regressions were constructed to examine the possible associations between ergonomic risk exposures and the skin temperature over the low back. Compared to the two student groups, clean workers had significantly higher ergonomic exposure scores on the low back. The low back temperature variations were different among the three groups. The temperature decreased significantly among students with ergonomic exposure (P < 0.01), while it increased among cleaning workers. With adjustment of confounding, the post-exposure temperature and the temperature changes after exposure showed a significantly negative association with ergonomic exposure scores. For maximum temperature, one increasing ergonomic score decreased -0.23 °C (95% CI -0.37, -0.10) of temperature after ergonomic exposure over the low back. There was a significant association between ergonomic exposures and infrared thermal temperature over low back. IRT could be used as an objective assessment of ergonomic exposure on the low back.

Keywords: Ergonomic exposure, infrared thermography, musculoskeletal disorders, skin temperature, low back.

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Authors: Melek Kalkan, Hatice Odacı, Hatice Epli Koç

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The aim of this study is to compare the innovativeness, risk taking, and focusing on opportunity of the nurse managers and nurses. The data are collected from nurse managers and nurses in Ondokuz Mayıs University, Faculty of Medicine Hospital and Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Medicine Hospital. The study sample consisted of 151 participants, 76 nurse managers (50.3%) and 75 nurses (49.7%). All participants have been assessed by Participant Information Form and Corporate Entrepreneurship Scale. In data analysis, independent t-test has applied. The results show that there are significant differences between nurse managers and nurses on innovativeness (t = 2.42, p < 0.05), risk taking (t = 3.62, p < 0.01), and focusing on opportunity (t = 2.16, p < 0.05). Consequently, it can be said that nurse managers have more innovativeness than nurses and tend to take more risks and focus more on opportunities. 

Keywords: Focusing on opportunity attitudes, innovativeness, risk taking, nurse.

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Authors: Kuntal Thakkar, Chaouki Ghenai, Ahmed Hachicha

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. The main objective of this study was to develop various green-house gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the state of Florida. The Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was used in this study to examine the energy alternative and GHG emissions reduction scenarios for short and long term (2010-2050). One of the energy analysis and GHG mitigation scenarios was developed by taking into account the available renewable energy resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida. This will help to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against “Business As Usual” and ‘State of Florida Policy” scenarios. Two master scenarios: “Electrification” and “Energy efficiency and Lifestyle” were developed through combination of various mitigation scenarios: technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation. The results show a net reduction of the energy demand and GHG emissions by adopting these two energy scenarios compared to the business as usual.

Keywords: Integrated modeling, energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Romain Bosquet, Pierre-Olivier Vandanjon, Alex Coiret, Tristan Lorino

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In the hardening energy context, the transport sector which constitutes a large worldwide energy demand has to be improving for decrease energy demand and global warming impacts. In a controversial situation where subsists an increasing demand for long-distance and high-speed travels, high-speed trains offer many advantages, as consuming significantly less energy than road or air transports. At the project phase of new rail infrastructures, it is nowadays important to characterize accurately the energy that will be induced by its operation phase, in addition to other more classical criteria as construction costs and travel time. Current literature consumption models used to estimate railways operation phase are obsolete or not enough accurate for taking into account the newest train or railways technologies. In this paper, an updated model of consumption for high-speed is proposed, based on experimental data obtained from full-scale tests performed on a new high-speed line. The assessment of the model is achieved by identifying train parameters and measured power consumptions for more than one hundred train routes. Perspectives are then discussed to use this updated model for accurately assess the energy impact of future railway infrastructures.

Keywords: High-speed train, energy, model, track profile, infrastructure

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Authors: Bello Nurudeen Akinsola

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The study analyzed the risk and returns of commercial-property in Southwestern Nigeria and selected stocksmarket investment between 2000 and 2009; compared the inflation hedging characteristics and diversification potentials of investing in commercial-property and selected stock- market investment. Primary data were collected on characteristics, rental and capital values of commercial- properties from their property managers through the use of questionnaire. Secondary data on stock prices and dividends on banking, insurance and conglomerates sectors were sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (2000-2009). The result showed that average return on all the selected stock- investments was higher than that of commercial-property. As regards risk, commercial-property indicated lower risk, compared to stocks. Also the stock-investment had better inflation hedging capacity than commercial-properties; combination of both had diversification potentials. The study concluded that stock-market investment offered attractive higher return than commercial-property although with higher risk and there could be diversification benefits in combining commercial-property with stock- investment.

Keywords: Commercial-Property, Return, Risk, Stock Market

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Authors: Hekmatpanah, M.

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Since the beginning of human history, human activities have caused many changes in the environment. Today, a particular attention should be paid to gaining knowledge about water quality of wetlands which are pristine natural environments rich in genetic reserves. If qualitative conditions of industrial areas (in terms of both physicochemical and biological conditions) are not addressed properly, they could cause disruption in natural ecosystems, especially in rivers. With regards to the quality of water resources, determination of pollutant sources plays a pivotal role in engineering projects as well as designing water quality control systems. Thus, using different methods such as flow duration curves, dischargepollution load model and frequency analysis by HYFA software package, risk of various industrial pollutants in international and ecologically important Gavkhoni wetland is analyzed. In this study, a station located at Varzaneh City is used as the last station on Zayanderud River, from where the river water is discharged into the wetland. Results showed that elements- concentrations often exceeded the allowed level and river water can endanger regional ecosystem. In addition, if the river discharge is managed on Q25 basis, this basis can lower concentrations of elements, keeping them within the normal level.

Keywords: Pollutants Risk, Industry, Flow Discharge, Management, Gavkhoni Wetland

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Authors: Alfred Hasanaj, Ardit Gjeta, Miranda Kullolli

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The approach in analyzing defects on different pipe lines is conducted through Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD). These methods of analyses have further extended in recent years. This approach is used to identify and stress out a solution for the defects which randomly occur with gas pipes such are corrosion defects, gauge defects, and combination of defects where gauge and dents are included. Few of the defects are to be analyzed in this paper where our main focus will be the fracture of cast Iron pipes, elastic-plastic failure and plastic collapse of X52 steel pipes for gas transport. We need to conduct a calculation of probability of the defects in order to predict and avoid such costly defects.

Keywords: Defects, Failure Assessment Diagrams, Safety Factor Steel Pipes.

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Authors: Isabel Duarte de Almeida, João Vilas-Boas, Ana Abrantes Cabral

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The number and adequacy of Performance-Indicators (PIs) for organisational purposes are core to the success of organisations and a major concern to the sponsor of this research. This assignment developed a procedure to improve a firm’s performance assessment system, by identifying two key-PIs out of 28 initial ones, and by setting criteria and their relative importance to validate and rank the adequacy and the right number of operational metrics. The Analytical-Hierarchy-Process was used with a synthesismethod to treat data coming from the management inquiries. Although organisational alignment has been achieved, business processes should also be targeted and PIs continuously revised.

Keywords: Strategic performance assessment systems, Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

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FMEA has been used for several years and proved its efficiency for system’s risk analysis due to failures. Risk priority number found in FMEA is used to rank failure modes that may occur in a system. There are some guidelines in the literature to assign the values of FMEA components known as Severity, Occurrence and Detection. This paper propose a method to assign the value for occurrence in more realistic manner representing the state of the system under study rather than depending totally on the experience of the analyst. This method uses the hazard function of a system to determine the value of occurrence depending on the behavior of the hazard being constant, increasing or decreasing.

Keywords: FMEA, Hazard Function, Risk Priority Number.

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Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

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The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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Authors: C. Li, G. Coates, N. Johnson, M. McGuinness

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In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding. This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.

Keywords: ABM, Flood response, SMEs, Business continuity.

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Authors: J. Carlos Frutos Dordelly, M. Coillot, M. El Mankibi, R. Enríquez Miranda, M. José Jimenez, J. Arce Landa

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Natural ventilation systems have increasingly been the subject of research due to rising energetic consumption within the building sector and increased environmental awareness. In the last two decades, the mounting concern of greenhouse gas emissions and the need for an efficient passive ventilation system have driven the development of new alternative passive technologies such as ventilated facades, trombe walls or solar chimneys. The objective of the study is the assessment of PCM panels in an in situ solar chimney for the establishment of a numerical model. The PCM integrated solar chimney shows slight performance improvement in terms of mass flow rate and external temperature and outlet temperature difference. An increase of 11.3659 m³/h can be observed during low wind speed periods. Additionally, the surface temperature across the chimney goes beyond 45 °C and allows the activation of PCM panels.

Keywords: Energy storage, passive ventilation, phase changing materials, solar chimney, solar energy.

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Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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Authors: Münevver Başman, Ezel Tavşancıl

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Making the right decisions about students depends on teachers’ use of the assessment and evaluation techniques effectively. In order to do that, teachers should have positive attitudes and adequate self-efficacy perception towards assessment and evaluation. The purpose of this study is to investigate relationship between self-efficacy perception and the attitudes of prospective teachers towards assessment and evaluation and what kind of differences these issues have in terms of a variety of demographic variables. The study group consisted of 277 prospective teachers who have been studying in different departments of Marmara University, Faculty of Education. In this study, ‘Personal Information Form’, ‘A Perceptual Scale for Measurement and Evaluation of Prospective Teachers Self-Efficacy in Education’ and ‘Attitudes toward Educational Measurement Inventory’ are applied. As a result, positive correlation was found between self-efficacy perceptions and the attitudes of prospective teachers towards assessment and evaluation. Considering different departments, there is a significant difference between the mean score of attitudes of prospective teachers and between the mean score of self-efficacy perceptions of them. However, considering variables of attending statistics class and the class types at the graduated high school, there is no significant difference between the mean score of attitudes of prospective teachers and between the mean score of self-efficacy perceptions of them.

Keywords: Attitude, perception, prospective teacher, self-efficacy.

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

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Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, E-constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization.

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Authors: Georgia Garani

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A generalised relational data model is formalised for the representation of data with nested structure of arbitrary depth. A recursive algebra for the proposed model is presented. All the operations are formally defined. The proposed model is proved to be a superset of the conventional relational model (CRM). The functionality and validity of the model is shown by a prototype implementation that has been undertaken in the functional programming language Miranda.

Keywords: nested relations, recursive algebra, recursive nested operations, relational data model.

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Authors: M. C. Pardo-Ferreira, J. C. Rubio-Romero, M. Martínez-Rojas

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Resilience Engineering is a new paradigm of safety management that proposes to change the way of managing the safety to focus on the things that go well instead of the things that go wrong. Many complex and high-risk sectors such as air traffic control, health care, nuclear power plants, railways or emergencies, have applied this new vision of safety and have obtained very positive results. In the construction sector, safety management continues to be a problem as indicated by the statistics of occupational injuries worldwide. Therefore, it is important to improve safety management in this sector. For this reason, it is proposed to apply Resilience Engineering to the construction sector. The Construction Phase Health and Safety Plan emerges as a key element for the planning of safety management. One of the key tools of Resilience Engineering is the Resilience Assessment Grid that allows measuring the four essential abilities (respond, monitor, learn and anticipate) for resilient performance. The purpose of this paper is to develop a questionnaire based on the Resilience Assessment Grid, specifically on the ability to learn, to assess whether a Construction Phase Health and Safety Plans helps companies in a construction site to implement this ability. The research process was divided into four stages: (i) initial design of a questionnaire, (ii) validation of the content of the questionnaire, (iii) redesign of the questionnaire and (iii) application of the Delphi method. The questionnaire obtained could be used as a tool to help construction companies to evolve from Safety-I to Safety-II. In this way, companies could begin to develop the ability to learn, which will serve as a basis for the development of the other abilities necessary for resilient performance. The following steps in this research are intended to develop other questions that allow evaluating the rest of abilities for resilient performance such as monitoring, learning and anticipating.

Keywords: Resilience engineering, construction sector, resilience assessment grid, construction phase health and safety plan.

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Authors: Chan-Sik Kim, Jong-Seong Kim, Se Won Lee, Hoo-Gon Choi

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In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.

Keywords: NPD projects, risk cost, strategy, optimal responses, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Alaa Al Hawari, Mohammad Khader, Wael El Hasan, Mahmoud Alijla, Ammar Manawi, Abdelbaki Benamour

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The production of aluminum alloys and ingots – starting from the processing of alumina to aluminum, and the final cast product – was studied using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The studied aluminum supply chain consisted of a carbon plant, a reduction plant, a casting plant, and a power plant. In the LCA model, the environmental loads of the different plants for the production of 1 ton of aluminum metal were investigated. The impact of the aluminum production was assessed in eight impact categories. The results showed that for all of the impact categories the power plant had the highest impact only in the cases of Human Toxicity Potential (HTP) the reduction plant had the highest impact and in the Marine Aquatic Eco-Toxicity Potential (MAETP) the carbon plant had the highest impact. Furthermore, the impact of the carbon plant and the reduction plant combined was almost the same as the impact of the power plant in the case of the Acidification Potential (AP). The carbon plant had a positive impact on the environment when it come to the Eutrophication Potential (EP) due to the production of clean water in the process. The natural gas based power plant used in the case study had 8.4 times less negative impact on the environment when compared to the heavy fuel based power plant and 10.7 times less negative impact when compared to the hard coal based power plant.

Keywords: Life cycle assessment, aluminum production, Supply chain.

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Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

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Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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Authors: Abiodun M. Lawal, Benjamin O. Olley

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Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. Questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. Intervention had significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test (t{7}= 6.01, p<.01) and at follow up (t{7} = 6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14} = - 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14} = -9.56, p<.05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in control group. Drivers in experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers’ sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, Long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, Sexual risk behaviours.

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Authors: A. Asambe

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A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures.

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Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

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Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: Modelling, Monte Carlo Simulations, Probabilistic Models, Data Clustering, Reinforced Concrete Members, Structural Design.

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Authors: Rusu Ligia, Cosma Germina, Lica Eliana, Marin Mihnea, Cernăianu Sorina, Copilusi Petre Cristian, Rusu Petre Florinel

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The aim of this paper is to present the role of myotonometry in assessment muscle viscoelasticity by measurement of force index (IF) and stiffness (S) at thigh muscle groups. The results are used for improve the muscle training. The method is based on mechanic impulse on the muscle group, that involve a muscle response like acceleration, speed and amplitude curves. From these we have information about elasticity, stiffness beginning from mechanic oscillations of muscle tissue. Using this method offer the possibility for monitoring the muscle capacity for produce mechanic energy, that allows a efficiency of movement with a minimal tissue deformation.

Keywords: assessment, infraspinatus syndrome, kinetic therapy, rehabilitation

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Authors: Melisa Yazdan Panahi

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Since, today in most countries around the world much attention is paid to planning the smallest unit in the city i.e. the residential neighborhoods to achieve sustainable urban development goals, a variety of assessment tools have been developed to assess and monitor the sustainability of new developments. One of the most reliable and widely used assessment tools is LEED-ND rating system. This paper whit the aim of assessing sustainability level of Roshdieh neighborhood in Tabriz, has introduced this rating system and applied it in the study area. The results indicate that Roshdieh has the potential of achieving the standards of sustainable neighborhoods, but the present situation is far from the ideal point.

Keywords: LEED-ND, Sustainable Neighborhood, New Developments, Tabriz.

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Authors: Michael W. Markowitz

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A central element of higher education today is the “core” or “general education” curriculum: that configuration of courses that often encompasses the essence of liberal arts education. Ensuring that such offerings reflect the mission and values of the institution is a challenge faced by most college and universities, often more than once. This paper presents an action model of program planning designed to structure the processes of developing, implementing and revising core curricula in a manner consistent with key institutional goals and objectives. Through presentation of a case study from a university in the United States, the elements of needs assessment, stakeholder investment and collaborative compromise are shown as key components of a planning strategy that can produce a general education program that is comprehensive, academically rigorous, assessable, and mission consistent. The paper concludes with recommendations for both the implementation and evaluation of such programs in practice.

Keywords: Academic assessment, academic program planning, curriculum development, general education reform.

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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