Search results for: rank estimates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 402

Search results for: rank estimates

222 Improving Survivability in Wireless Ad Hoc Network

Authors: Seyed Ali Sadat Noori, Elham Sahebi Bazaz

Abstract:

Topological changes in mobile ad hoc networks frequently render routing paths unusable. Such recurrent path failures have detrimental effects on quality of service. A suitable technique for eliminating this problem is to use multiple backup paths between the source and the destination in the network. This paper proposes an effective and efficient protocol for backup and disjoint path set in ad hoc wireless network. This protocol converges to a highly reliable path set very fast with no message exchange overhead. The paths selection according to this algorithm is beneficial for mobile ad hoc networks, since it produce a set of backup paths with more high reliability. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of our algorithm in terms of route numbers in the path set and its reliability. In order to acquire link reliability estimates, we use link expiration time (LET) between two nodes.

Keywords: Wireless Ad Hoc Networks, Reliability, Routing, Disjoint Path

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221 Endogenous Growth of Small Open Economies in New Europe under Global Imbalance

Authors: Tatyana Boikova

Abstract:

The strong international competition as the factor of rising economic development efficiency should not turn into destructive force for models of social orientation. What result Europe received from the accelerated integration without a long transition period of the accepted countries. Correlative relationship between the research and development expenditure and labor productivity, inflation and the rate economy's growth of the USA and the euro zone, employment and gross value added between Old and New Europe is analyzed in this article. The article estimates the differences in economic growth of Old and New Europe. Correlation rate between cycles of the euro area and the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe very much differs, though some of these countries have high correlation as members of the Economic and Monetary Union. Besides, the majority of the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe does not correspond to criteria of an optimum currency area.

Keywords: endogenous economic growth, sustainability, competitiveness, economic development

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220 A Survey on Quasi-Likelihood Estimation Approaches for Longitudinal Set-ups

Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

Abstract:

The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood-based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasi-likelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill-conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQL-III) that is based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: Longitudinal, Com-Poisson, Ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL.

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219 Clustering of Variables Based On a Probabilistic Approach Defined on the Hypersphere

Authors: Paulo Gomes, Adelaide Figueiredo

Abstract:

We consider n individuals described by p standardized variables, represented by points of the surface of the unit hypersphere Sn-1. For a previous choice of n individuals we suppose that the set of observables variables comes from a mixture of bipolar Watson distribution defined on the hypersphere. EM and Dynamic Clusters algorithms are used for identification of such mixture. We obtain estimates of parameters for each Watson component and then a partition of the set of variables into homogeneous groups of variables. Additionally we will present a factor analysis model where unobservable factors are just the maximum likelihood estimators of Watson directional parameters, exactly the first principal component of data matrix associated to each group previously identified. Such alternative model it will yield us to directly interpretable solutions (simple structure), avoiding factors rotations.

Keywords: Dynamic Clusters algorithm, EM algorithm, Factor analysis model, Hierarchical Clustering, Watson distribution.

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218 Self Organizing Mixture Network in Mixture Discriminant Analysis: An Experimental Study

Authors: Nazif Çalış, Murat Erişoğlu, Hamza Erol, Tayfun Servi

Abstract:

In the recent works related with mixture discriminant analysis (MDA), expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate parameters of Gaussian mixtures. But, initial values of EM algorithm affect the final parameters- estimates. Also, when EM algorithm is applied two times, for the same data set, it can be give different results for the estimate of parameters and this affect the classification accuracy of MDA. Forthcoming this problem, we use Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) algorithm to estimate parameters of Gaussians mixtures in MDA that SOMN is more robust when random the initial values of the parameters are used [5]. We show effectiveness of this method on popular simulated waveform datasets and real glass data set.

Keywords: Self Organizing Mixture Network, MixtureDiscriminant Analysis, Waveform Datasets, Glass Identification, Mixture of Multivariate Normal Distributions

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217 EML-Estimation of Multivariate t Copulas with Heuristic Optimization

Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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216 Random Access in IoT Using Naïve Bayes Classification

Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

Abstract:

This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: Random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation.

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215 Baseline Performance of Notebook Computer under Various Environmental and Usage Conditions for Prognostics

Authors: Sachin Kumar, Michael Pecht

Abstract:

A study was conducted to formally characterize notebook computer performance under various environmental and usage conditions. Software was developed to collect data from the operating system of the computer. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the performance parameters- variations, trends, and correlations, as well as the extreme value they can attain in various usage and environmental conditions. An automated software script was written to simulate user activity. The variability of each performance parameter was addressed by establishing the empirical relationship between performance parameters. These equations were presented as baseline estimates for performance parameters, which can be used to detect system deviations from normal operation and for prognostic assessment. The effect of environmental factors, including different power sources, ambient temperatures, humidity, and usage, on performance parameters of notebooks was studied.

Keywords: Health monitoring, Electronic prognostics, Reliability, Usage monitoring, Notebook computer.

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214 Estimation of Groundwater Recovery by Recharge in the Agricultural Area

Authors: Tsutomu Ichikawa

Abstract:

The Kumamoto area, Kyushu, Japan has 1,041km2 in area and about 1milion in population. This area is a greatest area in Japan which depends on groundwater for all of drinking water. Quantity of this local groundwater use is about 200MCM during the year. It is understood that the main recharging area of groundwater exist in the rice field zone which have high infiltrate height ahead of 100mm/ day of the irrigated water located in the middle area of the Shira-River Basin. However, by decrease of the paddy-rice planting area by urbanization and an acreage reduction policy, the groundwater income and expenditure turned worse. Then Kumamoto city and four companies expended financial support to increase recharging water to underground by ponded water in the field from 2004. In this paper, the author reported the situation of recovery of groundwater by recharge and estimates the efficiency of recharge by statistical method.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, groundwater level, spring water, paddy field.

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213 The Recreation Technique Model from the Perspective of Environmental Quality Elements

Authors: G. Gradinaru, S. Olteanu

Abstract:

The quality improvements of the environmental elements could increase the recreational opportunities in a certain area (destination). The technique of the need for recreation focuses on choosing certain destinations for recreational purposes. The basic exchange taken into consideration is the one between the satisfaction gained after staying in that area and the value expressed in money and time allocated. The number of tourists in the respective area, the duration of staying and the money spent including transportation provide information on how individuals rank the place or certain aspects of the area (such as the quality of the environmental elements). For the statistical analysis of the environmental benefits offered by an area through the need of recreation technique, the following stages are suggested: - characterization of the reference area based on the statistical variables considered; - estimation of the environmental benefit through comparing the reference area with other similar areas (having the same environmental characteristics), from the perspective of the statistical variables considered. The model compared in recreation technique faced with a series of difficulties which refers to the reference area and correct transformation of time in money.

Keywords: Comparison in recreation technique, the quality of the environmental elements, statistical analysis model.

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212 Comparative Analysis of the Software Effort Estimation Models

Authors: Jaswinder Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Karanjeet Singh Kahlon

Abstract:

Accurate software cost estimates are critical to both developers and customers. They can be used for generating request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring and control. The exact relationship between the attributes of the effort estimation is difficult to establish. A neural network is good at discovering relationships and pattern in the data. So, in this paper a comparative analysis among existing Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model and Neural Network Based Model is performed. Neural Network has outperformed the other considered models. Hence, we proposed Neural Network system as a soft computing approach to model the effort estimation of the software systems.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural Network, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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211 A Black-box Approach for Response Quality Evaluation of Conversational Agent Systems

Authors: Ong Sing Goh, C. Ardil, Wilson Wong, Chun Che Fung

Abstract:

The evaluation of conversational agents or chatterbots question answering systems is a major research area that needs much attention. Before the rise of domain-oriented conversational agents based on natural language understanding and reasoning, evaluation is never a problem as information retrieval-based metrics are readily available for use. However, when chatterbots began to become more domain specific, evaluation becomes a real issue. This is especially true when understanding and reasoning is required to cater for a wider variety of questions and at the same time to achieve high quality responses. This paper discusses the inappropriateness of the existing measures for response quality evaluation and the call for new standard measures and related considerations are brought forward. As a short-term solution for evaluating response quality of conversational agents, and to demonstrate the challenges in evaluating systems of different nature, this research proposes a blackbox approach using observation, classification scheme and a scoring mechanism to assess and rank three example systems, AnswerBus, START and AINI.

Keywords: Evaluation, conversational agents, Response Quality, chatterbots

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210 Motion Recognition Based On Fuzzy WP Feature Extraction Approach

Authors: Keun-Chang Kwak

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with motion recognition based fuzzy WP(Wavelet Packet) feature extraction approach from Vicon physical data sets. For this purpose, we use an efficient fuzzy mutual-information-based WP transform for feature extraction. This method estimates the required mutual information using a novel approach based on fuzzy membership function. The physical action data set includes 10 normal and 10 aggressive physical actions that measure the human activity. The data have been collected from 10 subjects using the Vicon 3D tracker. The experiments consist of running, seating, and walking as physical activity motion among various activities. The experimental results revealed that the presented feature extraction approach showed good recognition performance.

Keywords: Motion recognition, fuzzy wavelet packet, Vicon physical data.

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209 Model-Based Small Area Estimation with Application to Unemployment Estimates

Authors: Hichem Omrani, Philippe Gerber, Patrick Bousch

Abstract:

The problem of Small Area Estimation (SAE) is complex because of various information sources and insufficient data. In this paper, an approach for SAE is presented for decision-making at national, regional and local level. We propose an Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) as an estimator in order to combine several information sources to evaluate various indicators. First, we present the urban audit project and its environmental, social and economic indicators. Secondly, we propose an approach for decision making in order to estimate indicators. An application is used to validate the theoretical proposal. Finally, a decision support system is presented based on open-source environment.

Keywords: Small area estimation, statistical method, sampling, empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), decision-making.

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208 Prioritizing Service Quality Dimensions:A Neural Network Approach

Authors: A. Golmohammadi, B. Jahandideh

Abstract:

One of the determinants of a firm-s prosperity is the customers- perceived service quality and satisfaction. While service quality is wide in scope, and consists of various dimensions, there may be differences in the relative importance of these dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction of service quality. Identifying the relative rank of different dimensions of service quality is very important in that it can help managers to find out which service dimensions have a greater effect on customers- overall satisfaction. Such an insight will consequently lead to more effective resource allocation which will finally end in higher levels of customer satisfaction. This issue –despite its criticality- has not received enough attention so far. Therefore, using a sample of 240 bank customers in Iran, an artificial neural network is developed to address this gap in the literature. As customers- evaluation of service quality is a subjective process, artificial neural networks –as a brain metaphor- may appear to have a potentiality to model such a complicated process. Proposing a neural network which is able to predict the customers- overall satisfaction of service quality with a promising level of accuracy is the first contribution of this study. In addition, prioritizing the service quality dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction –by using sensitivity analysis of neural network- is the second important finding of this paper.

Keywords: service quality, customer satisfaction, relativeimportance, artificial neural network.

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207 Subjective Versus Objective Assessment for Magnetic Resonance Images

Authors: Heshalini Rajagopal, Li Sze Chow, Raveendran Paramesran

Abstract:

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is one of the most important medical imaging modality. Subjective assessment of the image quality is regarded as the gold standard to evaluate MR images. In this study, a database of 210 MR images which contains ten reference images and 200 distorted images is presented. The reference images were distorted with four types of distortions: Rician Noise, Gaussian White Noise, Gaussian Blur and DCT compression. The 210 images were assessed by ten subjects. The subjective scores were presented in Difference Mean Opinion Score (DMOS). The DMOS values were compared with four FR-IQA metrics. We have used Pearson Linear Coefficient (PLCC) and Spearman Rank Order Correlation Coefficient (SROCC) to validate the DMOS values. The high correlation values of PLCC and SROCC shows that the DMOS values are close to the objective FR-IQA metrics.

Keywords: Medical Resonance (MR) images, Difference Mean Opinion Score (DMOS), Full Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA).

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206 Multidimensional Compromise Programming Evaluation of Digital Commerce Websites

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Multidimensional compromise programming evaluation of digital commerce websites is essential not only to have recommendations for improvement, but also to make comparisons with global business competitors. This research provides a multidimensional decision making model that prioritizes the objective criteria weights of various commerce websites using multidimensional compromise solution. Evaluation of digital commerce website quality can be considered as a complex information system structure including qualitative and quantitative factors for a multicriteria decision making problem. The proposed multicriteria decision making approach mainly consists of three sequential steps for the selection problem. In the first step, three major different evaluation criteria are characterized for website ranking problem. In the second step, identified critical criteria are weighted using the standard deviation procedure. In the third step, the multidimensional compromise programming is applied to rank the digital commerce websites.

Keywords: Standard deviation, commerce website, website evaluation, multicriteria decision making, multicriteria compromise programming, website quality, multidimensional decision analysis.

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205 Response Quality Evaluation in Heterogeneous Question Answering System: A Black-box Approach

Authors: Goh Ong Sing, C. Ardil, Wilson Wong, Shahrin Sahib

Abstract:

The evaluation of the question answering system is a major research area that needs much attention. Before the rise of domain-oriented question answering systems based on natural language understanding and reasoning, evaluation is never a problem as information retrieval-based metrics are readily available for use. However, when question answering systems began to be more domains specific, evaluation becomes a real issue. This is especially true when understanding and reasoning is required to cater for a wider variety of questions and at the same time achieve higher quality responses The research in this paper discusses the inappropriateness of the existing measure for response quality evaluation and in a later part, the call for new standard measures and the related considerations are brought forward. As a short-term solution for evaluating response quality of heterogeneous systems, and to demonstrate the challenges in evaluating systems of different nature, this research presents a black-box approach using observation, classification scheme and a scoring mechanism to assess and rank three example systems (i.e. AnswerBus, START and NaLURI).

Keywords: Evaluation, question answering, response quality.

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204 Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Turkish Air Force Stealth Fighter Aircraft Selection

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Neutrosophic logic decision analysis is proposed as a method of stealth fighter aircraft selection for Turkish Air Force. The opinion of experts is employed to rank the alternatives across a set of criteria. The analyst uses neutrosophic logic numbers to describe the experts' preferences. This approach can handle the situation in the case of unavailability of precise data, which is most commonly the case in stealth fighter aircraft selection. Neutrosophic logic numbers can consider the imprecision of the factors affecting decision making such as stealth analysis, survivability analysis, and performance analysis. Neutrosophic logic ranking is achieved using weighted arithmetic operator and weighted geometric operator and the alternatives are ranked from best to worst. An example is also presented to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. 

Keywords: Neutrosophic set theory, stealth fighter aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision-making, neutrosophic logic decision making, Turkish Air Force, MCDM

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203 Average Switching Thresholds and Average Throughput for Adaptive Modulation using Markov Model

Authors: Essam S. Altubaishi

Abstract:

The motivation for adaptive modulation and coding is to adjust the method of transmission to ensure that the maximum efficiency is achieved over the link at all times. The receiver estimates the channel quality and reports it back to the transmitter. The transmitter then maps the reported quality into a link mode. This mapping however, is not a one-to-one mapping. In this paper we investigate a method for selecting the proper modulation scheme. This method can dynamically adapt the mapping of the Signal-to- Noise Ratio (SNR) into a link mode. It enables the use of the right modulation scheme irrespective of changes in the channel conditions by incorporating errors in the received data. We propose a Markov model for this method, and use it to derive the average switching thresholds and the average throughput. We show that the average throughput of this method outperforms the conventional threshold method.

Keywords: Adaptive modulation and coding, CDMA, Markov model.

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202 Prioritizing Service Quality Dimensions: A Neural Network Approach

Authors: A. Golmohammadi, B. Jahandideh

Abstract:

One of the determinants of a firm-s prosperity is the customers- perceived service quality and satisfaction. While service quality is wide in scope, and consists of various dimensions, there may be differences in the relative importance of these dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction of service quality. Identifying the relative rank of different dimensions of service quality is very important in that it can help managers to find out which service dimensions have a greater effect on customers- overall satisfaction. Such an insight will consequently lead to more effective resource allocation which will finally end in higher levels of customer satisfaction. This issue – despite its criticality- has not received enough attention so far. Therefore, using a sample of 240 bank customers in Iran, an artificial neural network is developed to address this gap in the literature. As customers- evaluation of service quality is a subjective process, artificial neural networks –as a brain metaphor- may appear to have a potentiality to model such a complicated process. Proposing a neural network which is able to predict the customers- overall satisfaction of service quality with a promising level of accuracy is the first contribution of this study. In addition, prioritizing the service quality dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction –by using sensitivity analysis of neural network- is the second important finding of this paper.

Keywords: service quality, customer satisfaction, relative importance, artificial neural network.

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201 The Wijma Delivery Expectancy/Experience Questionnaire (W-DEQ) with Turkish Sample: Confirmatory and Exploratory Factor Analysis

Authors: Oznur Korukcu, Kamile Kukulu, Mehmet Z. Firat

Abstract:

The propose of this study is to investigate the factor structures of the W-DEQ, originally developed on UK and Swedish women, were confirmed in Turkish samples, and to obtain a new modified factor structure appropriate to Turkish culture. Statistical analyses of the data obtained were performed using SPSS© for Windows version 13.0 and the SAS statistical software Version 9.1. Both confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis of W-DEQ were performed in the study. Factor analysis yielded four factors related to hope, fear, lack of positive anticipation and riskiness. The alpha estimates of the total W-DEQ score were somewhat higher, being 0.92 for the parous and 0.90 for the nulliparous sample. These are well above the accepted limit of 0.70 and indicate excellent levels of internal reliability, thus showing that the questions were appropriate to the Turkish culture and useful scale for the evaluation of fear of childbirth in Turkish pregnants.

Keywords: Confirmatory factor analysis, cross-cultural research, exploratory factor analysis, fear of childbirth.

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200 Gender Differences in Risk Aversion Behavior: Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Jordan

Authors: Razan Salem

Abstract:

Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors.

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199 Robust Statistics Based Algorithm to Remove Salt and Pepper Noise in Images

Authors: V.R.Vijaykumar, P.T.Vanathi, P.Kanagasabapathy, D.Ebenezer

Abstract:

In this paper, a robust statistics based filter to remove salt and pepper noise in digital images is presented. The function of the algorithm is to detect the corrupted pixels first since the impulse noise only affect certain pixels in the image and the remaining pixels are uncorrupted. The corrupted pixels are replaced by an estimated value using the proposed robust statistics based filter. The proposed method perform well in removing low to medium density impulse noise with detail preservation upto a noise density of 70% compared to standard median filter, weighted median filter, recursive weighted median filter, progressive switching median filter, signal dependent rank ordered mean filter, adaptive median filter and recently proposed decision based algorithm. The visual and quantitative results show the proposed algorithm outperforms in restoring the original image with superior preservation of edges and better suppression of impulse noise

Keywords: Image denoising, Nonlinear filter, Robust Statistics, and Salt and Pepper Noise.

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198 Impact of Revenue Gap on Budget Deficit, Debt Burden and Economic Growth: An Evidence from Pakistan

Authors: M. W. Siddiqi, M. Ilyas

Abstract:

Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and error correction mechanism on three different models for the period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.

Keywords: Revenue Gap, Economic Growth, Budget Deficit, Debt Burden

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197 The Maximum Likelihood Method of Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression Model

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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196 The Links between Cardiovascular Risk and Psychological Wellbeing in Elderly

Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.

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195 Measuring the Relationship between Customers- Satisfaction and Cognitions: A Case of Janfusun Fancyworld in Taiwan

Authors: Wan-Yu Liu, Yen-Hsiang Liu, Shing-Yi Huang, Hao-Zhi Wen

Abstract:

The private theme parks are gradually surpassing public-owned scenic areas after many years of development and have become a mainstream choice for domestic tourists. Previous studies show that visitors from different backgrounds differ in consumer behavior and satisfaction factors. An understanding of visitor satisfaction is therefore of extreme importance to operators of privately-owned theme parks. Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) is used to measure consumer's potential satisfaction with services and has become a widely used management tool for strength and weakness analysis for brands, products, services and point of sales. As IPA has so far not been used to evaluate the visitor satisfaction with privately-owned theme parks, in this study the IPA method is used to analyze visitor satisfaction with Janfusun Fancyworld (one of the most popular private theme parks in Taiwan) and to rank visitor focus and satisfaction on/in theme park facilities and services. Results of the analysis provide private theme park operators with an understanding of user or consumer demands as well as an assessment of the quality of services currently offered.

Keywords: Satisfaction, Importance-Performance Analysis, Theme Parks, Janfusun Fancyworld.

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194 Impact of Similarity Ratings on Human Judgement

Authors: Ian A. McCulloh, Madelaine Zinser, Jesse Patsolic, Michael Ramos

Abstract:

Recommender systems are a common artificial intelligence (AI) application. For any given input, a search system will return a rank-ordered list of similar items. As users review returned items, they must decide when to halt the search and either revise search terms or conclude their requirement is novel with no similar items in the database. We present a statistically designed experiment that investigates the impact of similarity ratings on human judgement to conclude a search item is novel and halt the search. In the study, 450 participants were recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk to render judgement across 12 decision tasks. We find the inclusion of ratings increases the human perception that items are novel. Percent similarity increases novelty discernment when compared with star-rated similarity or the absence of a rating. Ratings reduce the time to decide and improve decision confidence. This suggests that the inclusion of similarity ratings can aid human decision-makers in knowledge search tasks.

Keywords: Ratings, rankings, crowdsourcing, empirical studies, user studies, similarity measures, human-centered computing, novelty in information retrieval.

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193 Phenotypic and Genetic Parameters of Pre-Weaning Growth Traits in Gentile di Puglia Lambs

Authors: M. Selvaggi, F. Pinto, A. R. Pesce Delfino, A. Vicenti, C. Dario

Abstract:

Data from 1731 Gentile di Puglia lambs, sired by 65 rams over a 5-year period were analyzed by a mixed model to estimate the variance components for heritability. The considered growth traits were: birth weight (BW), weight at 30 days of age (W30) and average daily gain from birth to 30 days of age (DG). Year of birth, sex of lamb, type of birth (single or twin), dam age at lambing and farm were significant sources of variation for all the considered growth traits. The average lamb weights were 3.85±0.16 kg at birth, 9.57±0.91 kg at 30 days of age and the average daily gain was 191±14 g. Estimates of heritability were 0.33±0.05, 0.41±0.06 and 0.16±0.05 respectively for the same traits. These values suggest there is a good opportunity to improve Gentile di Puglia lambs by selecting animals for growth traits.

Keywords: heritability estimate, growth traits, lambs, Gentile diPuglia.

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