Search results for: prediction error method
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9452

Search results for: prediction error method

9302 Tractive Performance Prediction for Intelligent Air-Cushion Track Vehicle: Fuzzy Logic Approach

Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, A. K. M. Mohiuddin, Yulfian Aminanda

Abstract:

Fuzzy logic approach is used in this study to predict the tractive performance in terms of traction force, and motion resistance for an intelligent air cushion track vehicle while it operates in the swamp peat. The system is effective to control the intelligent air –cushion system with measuring the vehicle traction force (TF), motion resistance (MR), cushion clearance height (CH) and cushion pressure (CP). Sinkage measuring sensor, magnetic switch, pressure sensor, micro controller, control valves and battery are incorporated with the Fuzzy logic system (FLS) to investigate experimentally the TF, MR, CH, and CP. In this study, a comparison for tractive performance of an intelligent air cushion track vehicle has been performed with the results obtained from the predicted values of FLS and experimental actual values. The mean relative error of actual and predicted values from the FLS model on traction force, and total motion resistance are found as 5.58 %, and 6.78 % respectively. For all parameters, the relative error of predicted values are found to be less than the acceptable limits. The goodness of fit of the prediction values from the FLS model on TF, and MR are found as 0.90, and 0.98 respectively.

Keywords: Cushion pressure, Fuzzy logic, Motion resistance, Traction force.

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9301 Drainage Prediction for Dam using Fuzzy Support Vector Regression

Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

Abstract:

The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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9300 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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9299 Straightness Error Compensation Servo-system for Single-axis Linear Motor Stage

Authors: M. S. Kang, D. H. Kim, J. S. Yoon, B. S. Park, J. K. Lee

Abstract:

Since straightness error of linear motor stage is hardly dependent upon machining accuracy and assembling accuracy, there is limit on maximum realizable accuracy. To cope with this limitation, this paper proposed a servo system to compensate straightness error of a linear motor stage. The servo system is mounted on the slider of the linear motor stage and moves in the direction of the straightness error so as to compensate the error. From position dependency and repeatability of the straightness error of the slider, a feedforward compensation control is applied to the platform servo control. In the consideration of required fine positioning accuracy, a platform driven by an electro-magnetic actuator is suggested and a sliding mode control was applied. The effectiveness of the sliding mode control was verified along with some experimental results.

Keywords: Linear Motor Stage, Straightness Error, Friction, Sliding Mode Control.

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9298 New Efficient Iterative Optimization Algorithm to Design the Two Channel QMF Bank

Authors: Ram Kumar Soni, Alok Jain, Rajiv Saxena

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient method for the design of two channel quadrature mirror filter (QMF) bank. To achieve minimum value of reconstruction error near to perfect reconstruction, a linear optimization process has been proposed. Prototype low pass filter has been designed using Kaiser window function. The modified algorithm has been developed to optimize the reconstruction error using linear objective function through iteration method. The result obtained, show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is better than that of the already exists methods.

Keywords: Filterbank, near perfect reconstruction, Kaiserwindow, QMF.

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9297 A C1-Conforming Finite Element Method for Nonlinear Fourth-Order Hyperbolic Equation

Authors: Yang Liu, Hong Li, Siriguleng He, Wei Gao, Zhichao Fang

Abstract:

In this paper, the C1-conforming finite element method is analyzed for a class of nonlinear fourth-order hyperbolic partial differential equation. Some a priori bounds are derived using Lyapunov functional, and existence, uniqueness and regularity for the weak solutions are proved. Optimal error estimates are derived for both semidiscrete and fully discrete schemes.

Keywords: Nonlinear fourth-order hyperbolic equation, Lyapunov functional, existence, uniqueness and regularity, conforming finite element method, optimal error estimates.

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9296 A Design of Fractional-Order PI Controller with Error Compensation

Authors: Mazidah Tajjudin, Norhashim Mohd Arshad, Ramli Adnan

Abstract:

Fractional-order controller was proven to perform better than the integer-order controller. However, the absence of a pole at origin produced marginal error in fractional-order control system. This study demonstrated the enhancement of the fractionalorder PI over the integer-order PI in a steam temperature control. The fractional-order controller was cascaded with an error compensator comprised of a very small zero and a pole at origin to produce a zero steady-state error for the closed-loop system. Some modification on the error compensator was suggested for different order fractional integrator that can improve the overall phase margin.

Keywords: Fractional-order PI, Ziegler-Nichols tuning, Oustaloup's Recursive Approximation, steam temperature control.

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9295 Identification, Prediction and Detection of the Process Fault in a Cement Rotary Kiln by Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Technique

Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

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9294 Operational risks Classification for Information Systems with Service-Oriented Architecture (Including Loss Calculation Example)

Authors: Irina Pyrlina

Abstract:

This article presents the results of a study conducted to identify operational risks for information systems (IS) with service-oriented architecture (SOA). Analysis of current approaches to risk and system error classifications revealed that the system error classes were never used for SOA risk estimation. Additionally system error classes are not normallyexperimentally supported with realenterprise error data. Through the study several categories of various existing error classifications systems are applied and three new error categories with sub-categories are identified. As a part of operational risks a new error classification scheme is proposed for SOA applications. It is based on errors of real information systems which are service providers for application with service-oriented architecture. The proposed classification approach has been used to classify SOA system errors for two different enterprises (oil and gas industry, metal and mining industry). In addition we have conducted a research to identify possible losses from operational risks.

Keywords: Enterprise architecture, Error classification, Oil&Gas and Metal&Mining industries, Operational risks, Serviceoriented architecture

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9293 Intelligent Earthquake Prediction System Based On Neural Network

Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

Abstract:

Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information about Earthquake Existed throughout history & the Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of the object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, Prediction, RBF neural network.

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9292 The New Semi-Experimental Method for Simulation of Turbine Flow Meters Rotation in the Transitional Flow

Authors: J. Tonkonogij, A. Pedišius, A. Stankevičius

Abstract:

The new semi-experimental method for simulation of the turbine flow meters rotation in the transitional flow has been developed. The method is based on the experimentally established exponential low of changing of dimensionless relative turbine gas meter rotation frequency and meter inertia time constant. For experimental evaluation of the meter time constant special facility has been developed. The facility ensures instant switching of turbine meter under test from one channel to the other channel with different flow rate and measuring the meter response. The developed method can be used for evaluation and predication of the turbine meters response and dynamic error in the transitional flow with any arbitrary law of flow rate changing. The examples of the method application are presented.

Keywords: Dynamic error, pulsing flow, numerical simulation, response, turbine gas meters.

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9291 Vibration Induced Fatigue Assessment in Vehicle Development Process

Authors: Fatih Kagnici

Abstract:

Improvement in CAE methods has an important role for shortening of the vehicle product development time. It is provided that validation of the design and improvements in terms of durability can be done without hardware prototype production. In recent years, several different methods have been developed in order to investigate fatigue damage of the vehicle. The intended goal among these methods is prediction of fatigue damage in a short time with reduced costs. This study developed a new fatigue damage prediction method in the automotive sector using power spectrum densities of accelerations. This study also confirmed that the weak region in vehicle can be easily detected with the method developed in this study which results were compared with conventional method.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, Power spectrum density, Vibration induced fatigue, Vehicle development

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9290 Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Reet Kamal Kaur

Abstract:

Protein structure determination and prediction has been a focal research subject in the field of bioinformatics due to the importance of protein structure in understanding the biological and chemical activities of organisms. The experimental methods used by biotechnologists to determine the structures of proteins demand sophisticated equipment and time. A host of computational methods are developed to predict the location of secondary structure elements in proteins for complementing or creating insights into experimental results. However, prediction accuracies of these methods rarely exceed 70%.

Keywords: Protein, Secondary Structure, Prediction, DNA, RNA.

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9289 Methods for Better Assessment of Fatigue and Deterioration in Bridges and Other Steel or Concrete Constructions

Authors: J. Menčík, B. Culek, Jr., L. Beran, J. Mareš

Abstract:

Large metal and concrete structures suffer by various kinds of deterioration, and accurate prediction of the remaining life is important. This paper informs about two methods for its assessment. One method, suitable for steel bridges and other constructions exposed to fatigue, monitors the loads and damage accumulation using information systems for the operation and the finite element model of the construction. In addition to the operation load, the dead weight of the construction and thermal stresses can be included into the model. The second method is suitable for concrete bridges and other structures, which suffer by carbonatation and other degradation processes, driven by diffusion. The diffusion constant, important for the prediction of future development, can be determined from the depth-profile of pH, obtained by pH measurement at various depths. Comparison with measurements on real objects illustrates the suitability of both methods.

Keywords: Bridges, carbonatation, concrete, diagnostics, fatigue, life prediction, monitoring, railway, simulation, structures.

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9288 Stock Movement Prediction Using Price Factor and Deep Learning

Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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9287 Determine of Constant Coefficients to RelateTotal Dissolved Solids to Electrical Conductivity

Authors: M. Siosemarde, F. Kave, E. Pazira, H. Sedghi, S. J. Ghaderi

Abstract:

Salinity is a measure of the amount of salts in the water. Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) as salinity parameter are often determined using laborious and time consuming laboratory tests, but it may be more appropriate and economical to develop a method which uses a more simple soil salinity index. Because dissolved ions increase salinity as well as conductivity, the two measures are related. The aim of this research was determine of constant coefficients for predicting of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) based on Electrical Conductivity (EC) with Statistics of Correlation coefficient, Root mean square error, Maximum error, Mean Bias error, Mean absolute error, Relative error and Coefficient of residual mass. For this purpose, two experimental areas (S1, S2) of Khuzestan province-IRAN were selected and four treatments with three replications by series of double rings were applied. The treatments were included 25cm, 50cm, 75cm and 100cm water application. The results showed the values 16.3 & 12.4 were the best constant coefficients for predicting of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) based on EC in Pilot S1 and S2 with correlation coefficient 0.977 & 0.997 and 191.1 & 106.1 Root mean square errors (RMSE) respectively.

Keywords: constant coefficients, electrical conductivity, Khuzestan plain and total dissolved solids.

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9286 Prediction of Natural Gas Viscosity using Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: E. Nemati Lay, M. Peymani, E. Sanjari

Abstract:

Prediction of viscosity of natural gas is an important parameter in the energy industries such as natural gas storage and transportation. In this study viscosity of different compositions of natural gas is modeled by using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on back-propagation method. A reliable database including more than 3841 experimental data of viscosity for testing and training of ANN is used. The designed neural network can predict the natural gas viscosity using pseudo-reduced pressure and pseudo-reduced temperature with AARD% of 0.221. The accuracy of designed ANN has been compared to other published empirical models. The comparison indicates that the proposed method can provide accurate results.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Empirical correlation, Natural gas, Viscosity

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9285 Estimation of Load Impedance in Presence of Harmonics

Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a fast and efficient on-line technique for estimating impedance of unbalanced loads in power systems. The proposed technique is an application of a discrete timedynamic filter based on stochastic estimation theory which is suitable for estimating parameters in noisy environment. The algorithm uses sets of digital samples of the distorted voltage and current waveforms of the non-linear load to estimate the harmonic contents of these two signal. The non-linear load impedance is then calculated from these contents. The method is tested using practical data. Results are reported and compared with those obtained using the conventional least error squares technique. In addition to the very accurate results obtained, the method can detect and reject bad measurements. This can be considered as a very important advantage over the conventional static estimation methods such as the least error square method.

Keywords: Estimation, identification, Harmonics, Dynamic Filter.

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9284 Application of EEG Wavelet Power to Prediction of Antidepressant Treatment Response

Authors: Dorota Witkowska, Paweł Gosek, Lukasz Swiecicki, Wojciech Jernajczyk, Bruce J. West, Miroslaw Latka

Abstract:

In clinical practice, the selection of an antidepressant often degrades to lengthy trial-and-error. In this work we employ a normalized wavelet power of alpha waves as a biomarker of antidepressant treatment response. This novel EEG metric takes into account both non-stationarity and intersubject variability of alpha waves. We recorded resting, 19-channel EEG (closed eyes) in 22 inpatients suffering from unipolar (UD, n=10) or bipolar (BD, n=12) depression. The EEG measurement was done at the end of the short washout period which followed previously unsuccessful pharmacotherapy. The normalized alpha wavelet power of 11 responders was markedly different than that of 11 nonresponders at several, mostly temporoparietal sites. Using the prediction of treatment response based on the normalized alpha wavelet power, we achieved 81.8% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity for channel T4.

Keywords: Alpha waves, antidepressant, treatment outcome, wavelet.

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9283 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling

Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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9282 Genetic Algorithm and Padé-Moment Matching for Model Order Reduction

Authors: Shilpi Lavania, Deepak Nagaria

Abstract:

A mixed method for model order reduction is presented in this paper. The denominator polynomial is derived by matching both Markov parameters and time moments, whereas numerator polynomial derivation and error minimization is done using Genetic Algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method can be investigated in terms of closeness of the response of reduced order model with respect to that of higher order original model and a comparison of the integral square error as well.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction (MOR), control theory, Markov parameters, time moments, genetic algorithm, Single Input Single Output (SISO).

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9281 A New Type of Integration Error and its Influence on Integration Testing Techniques

Authors: P. Prema, B. Ramadoss

Abstract:

Testing is an activity that is required both in the development and maintenance of the software development life cycle in which Integration Testing is an important activity. Integration testing is based on the specification and functionality of the software and thus could be called black-box testing technique. The purpose of integration testing is testing integration between software components. In function or system testing, the concern is with overall behavior and whether the software meets its functional specifications or performance characteristics or how well the software and hardware work together. This explains the importance and necessity of IT for which the emphasis is on interactions between modules and their interfaces. Software errors should be discovered early during IT to reduce the costs of correction. This paper introduces a new type of integration error, presenting an overview of Integration Testing techniques with comparison of each technique and also identifying which technique detects what type of error.

Keywords: Integration Error, Integration Error Types, Integration Testing Techniques, Software Testing

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9280 A New History Based Method to Handle the Recurring Concept Shifts in Data Streams

Authors: Hossein Morshedlou, Ahmad Abdollahzade Barforoush

Abstract:

Recent developments in storage technology and networking architectures have made it possible for broad areas of applications to rely on data streams for quick response and accurate decision making. Data streams are generated from events of real world so existence of associations, which are among the occurrence of these events in real world, among concepts of data streams is logical. Extraction of these hidden associations can be useful for prediction of subsequent concepts in concept shifting data streams. In this paper we present a new method for learning association among concepts of data stream and prediction of what the next concept will be. Knowing the next concept, an informed update of data model will be possible. The results of conducted experiments show that the proposed method is proper for classification of concept shifting data streams.

Keywords: Data Stream, Classification, Concept Shift, History.

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9279 MIMO System Order Reduction Using Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Swadhin Ku. Mishra, Sidhartha Panda, Simanchala Padhy, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, real-coded genetic algorithm (RCGA) optimization technique has been applied for large-scale linear dynamic multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) system. The method is based on error minimization technique where the integral square error between the transient responses of original and reduced order models has been minimized by RCGA. The reduction procedure is simple computer oriented and the approach is comparable in quality with the other well-known reduction techniques. Also, the proposed method guarantees stability of the reduced model if the original high-order MIMO system is stable. The proposed approach of MIMO system order reduction is illustrated with the help of an example and the results are compared with the recently published other well-known reduction techniques to show its superiority.

Keywords: Multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) system.Modelorder reduction. Integral squared error (ISE). Real-coded geneticalgorithm

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9278 Novel Hybrid Method for Gene Selection and Cancer Prediction

Authors: Liping Jing, Michael K. Ng, Tieyong Zeng

Abstract:

Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer. More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment results on real world data show that the proposed framework often outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods, say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.

Keywords: Gene Selection, Cancer Prediction, Lasso, Clustering, Classification.

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9277 Virulent-GO: Prediction of Virulent Proteins in Bacterial Pathogens Utilizing Gene Ontology Terms

Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.

Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.

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9276 Selection of Designs in Ordinal Regression Models under Linear Predictor Misspecification

Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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9275 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems Technique for Modeling of Postweld Heat Treatment Process of Pressure Vessel Steel ASTM A516 Grade 70

Authors: Omar Al Denali, Abdelaziz Badi

Abstract:

The ASTM A516 Grade 70 steel is a suitable material used for the fabrication of boiler pressure vessels working in moderate and lower temperature services, and it has good weldability and excellent notch toughness. The post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or stress-relieving heat treatment has significant effects on avoiding the martensite transformation and resulting in high hardness, which can lead to cracking in the heat-affected zone (HAZ). An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was implemented to predict the material tensile strength of PWHT experiments. The ANFIS models presented excellent predictions, and the comparison was carried out based on the mean absolute percentage error between the predicted values and the experimental values. The ANFIS model gave a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.556%, which confirms the high accuracy of the model.

Keywords: Prediction, post-weld heat treatment, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, mean absolute percentage error.

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9274 An Efficient Energy Adaptive Hybrid Error Correction Technique for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ammar Elyas babiker, M.Nordin B. Zakaria, Hassan Yosif, Samir B. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Variable channel conditions in underwater networks, and variable distances between sensors due to water current, leads to variable bit error rate (BER). This variability in BER has great effects on energy efficiency of error correction techniques used. In this paper an efficient energy adaptive hybrid error correction technique (AHECT) is proposed. AHECT adaptively changes error technique from pure retransmission (ARQ) in a low BER case to a hybrid technique with variable encoding rates (ARQ & FEC) in a high BER cases. An adaptation algorithm depends on a precalculated packet acceptance rate (PAR) look-up table, current BER, packet size and error correction technique used is proposed. Based on this adaptation algorithm a periodically 3-bit feedback is added to the acknowledgment packet to state which error correction technique is suitable for the current channel conditions and distance. Comparative studies were done between this technique and other techniques, and the results show that AHECT is more energy efficient and has high probability of success than all those techniques.

Keywords: Underwater communication, wireless sensornetworks, error correction technique, energy efficiency

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9273 Performance Analysis of Artificial Neural Network with Decision Tree in Prediction of Diabetes Mellitus

Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

Abstract:

Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. Medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patient’s health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. WEKA software was used for the implementation of the algorithms. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. From the results obtained, DTA performed better than ANN. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913 that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, classification, decision tree, diabetes mellitus.

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