Search results for: naïve Bayesian tree.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 549

Search results for: naïve Bayesian tree.

219 Online Optic Disk Segmentation Using Fractals

Authors: Srinivasan Aruchamy, Partha Bhattacharjee, Goutam Sanyal

Abstract:

Optic disk segmentation plays a key role in the mass screening of individuals with diabetic retinopathy and glaucoma ailments. An efficient hardware-based algorithm for optic disk localization and segmentation would aid for developing an automated retinal image analysis system for real time applications. Herein, TMS320C6416DSK DSP board pixel intensity based fractal analysis algorithm for an automatic localization and segmentation of the optic disk is reported. The experiment has been performed on color and fluorescent angiography retinal fundus images. Initially, the images were pre-processed to reduce the noise and enhance the quality. The retinal vascular tree of the image was then extracted using canny edge detection technique. Finally, a pixel intensity based fractal analysis is performed to segment the optic disk by tracing the origin of the vascular tree. The proposed method is examined on three publicly available data sets of the retinal image and also with the data set obtained from an eye clinic. The average accuracy achieved is 96.2%. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first work reporting the use of TMS320C6416DSK DSP board and pixel intensity based fractal analysis algorithm for an automatic localization and segmentation of the optic disk. This will pave the way for developing devices for detection of retinal diseases in the future.

Keywords: Color retinal fundus images, Diabetic retinopathy, Fluorescein angiography retinal fundus images, Fractal analysis.

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218 A Real-Time Bayesian Decision-Support System for Predicting Suspect Vehicle’s Intended Target Using a Sparse Camera Network

Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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217 Using Time-Series NDVI to Model Land Cover Change: A Case Study in the Berg River Catchment Area, Western Cape, South Africa

Authors: A. S. Adesuyi, Z. Munch

Abstract:

This study investigates the use of a time-series of MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2 not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2 was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.

Keywords: Change detection, Land cover, NDVI, time-series.

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216 Effect of Scene Changing on Image Sequences Compression Using Zero Tree Coding

Authors: Mbainaibeye Jérôme, Noureddine Ellouze

Abstract:

We study in this paper the effect of the scene changing on image sequences coding system using Embedded Zerotree Wavelet (EZW). The scene changing considered here is the full motion which may occurs. A special image sequence is generated where the scene changing occurs randomly. Two scenarios are considered: In the first scenario, the system must provide the reconstruction quality as best as possible by the management of the bit rate (BR) while the scene changing occurs. In the second scenario, the system must keep the bit rate as constant as possible by the management of the reconstruction quality. The first scenario may be motivated by the availability of a large band pass transmission channel where an increase of the bit rate may be possible to keep the reconstruction quality up to a given threshold. The second scenario may be concerned by the narrow band pass transmission channel where an increase of the bit rate is not possible. In this last case, applications for which the reconstruction quality is not a constraint may be considered. The simulations are performed with five scales wavelet decomposition using the 9/7-tap filter bank biorthogonal wavelet. The entropy coding is performed using a specific defined binary code book and EZW algorithm. Experimental results are presented and compared to LEAD H263 EVAL. It is shown that if the reconstruction quality is the constraint, the system increases the bit rate to obtain the required quality. In the case where the bit rate must be constant, the system is unable to provide the required quality if the scene change occurs; however, the system is able to improve the quality while the scene changing disappears.

Keywords: Image Sequence Compression, Wavelet Transform, Scene Changing, Zero Tree, Bit Rate, Quality.

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215 Accuracy of Divergence Measures for Detection of Abrupt Changes

Authors: P. Bergl

Abstract:

Numerous divergence measures (spectral distance, cepstral distance, difference of the cepstral coefficients, Kullback-Leibler divergence, distance given by the General Likelihood Ratio, distance defined by the Recursive Bayesian Changepoint Detector and the Mahalanobis measure) are compared in this study. The measures are used for detection of abrupt spectral changes in synthetic AR signals via the sliding window algorithm. Two experiments are performed; the first is focused on detection of single boundary while the second concentrates on detection of a couple of boundaries. Accuracy of detection is judged for each method; the measures are compared according to results of both experiments.

Keywords: Abrupt changes detection, autoregressive model, divergence measure.

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214 An Artificial Neural Network Model Based Study of Seismic Wave

Authors: Hemant Kumar, Nilendu Das

Abstract:

A study based on ANN structure gives us the information to predict the size of the future in realizing a past event. ANN, IMD (Indian meteorological department) data and remote sensing were used to enable a number of parameters for calculating the size that may occur in the future. A threshold selected specifically above the high-frequency harvest reached the area during the selected seismic activity. In the field of human and local biodiversity it remains to obtain the right parameter compared to the frequency of impact. But during the study the assumption is that predicting seismic activity is a difficult process, not because of the parameters involved here, which can be analyzed and funded in research activity.

Keywords: ANN, Bayesian class, earthquakes, IMD.

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213 On the Solution of the Towers of Hanoi Problem

Authors: Hayedeh Ahrabian, Comfar Badamchi, Abbass Nowzari-Dalini

Abstract:

In this paper, two versions of an iterative loopless algorithm for the classical towers of Hanoi problem with O(1) storage complexity and O(2n) time complexity are presented. Based on this algorithm the number of different moves in each of pegs with its direction is formulated.

Keywords: Loopless algorithm, Binary tree, Towers of Hanoi.

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212 A Content Vector Model for Text Classification

Authors: Eric Jiang

Abstract:

As a popular rank-reduced vector space approach, Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI) has been used in information retrieval and other applications. In this paper, an LSI-based content vector model for text classification is presented, which constructs multiple augmented category LSI spaces and classifies text by their content. The model integrates the class discriminative information from the training data and is equipped with several pertinent feature selection and text classification algorithms. The proposed classifier has been applied to email classification and its experiments on a benchmark spam testing corpus (PU1) have shown that the approach represents a competitive alternative to other email classifiers based on the well-known SVM and naïve Bayes algorithms.

Keywords: Feature Selection, Latent Semantic Indexing, Text Classification, Vector Space Model.

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211 Prediction of MicroRNA-Target Gene by Machine Learning Algorithms in Lung Cancer Study

Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

Abstract:

MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: MicroRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM.

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210 The Negative Effect of Traditional Loops Style on the Performance of Algorithms

Authors: Mahmoud Moh'd Mhashi

Abstract:

A new algorithm called Character-Comparison to Character-Access (CCCA) is developed to test the effect of both: 1) converting character-comparison and number-comparison into character-access and 2) the starting point of checking on the performance of the checking operation in string searching. An experiment is performed using both English text and DNA text with different sizes. The results are compared with five algorithms, namely, Naive, BM, Inf_Suf_Pref, Raita, and Cycle. With the CCCA algorithm, the results suggest that the evaluation criteria of the average number of total comparisons are improved up to 35%. Furthermore, the results suggest that the clock time required by the other algorithms is improved in range from 22.13% to 42.33% by the new CCCA algorithm.

Keywords: Pattern matching, string searching, charactercomparison, character-access, text type, and checking

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209 Combining ILP with Semi-supervised Learning for Web Page Categorization

Authors: Nuanwan Soonthornphisaj, Boonserm Kijsirikul

Abstract:

This paper presents a semi-supervised learning algorithm called Iterative-Cross Training (ICT) to solve the Web pages classification problems. We apply Inductive logic programming (ILP) as a strong learner in ICT. The objective of this research is to evaluate the potential of the strong learner in order to boost the performance of the weak learner of ICT. We compare the result with the supervised Naive Bayes, which is the well-known algorithm for the text classification problem. The performance of our learning algorithm is also compare with other semi-supervised learning algorithms which are Co-Training and EM. The experimental results show that ICT algorithm outperforms those algorithms and the performance of the weak learner can be enhanced by ILP system.

Keywords: Inductive Logic Programming, Semi-supervisedLearning, Web Page Categorization

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208 Combining Skin Color and Optical Flow for Computer Vision Systems

Authors: Muhammad Raza Ali, Tim Morris

Abstract:

Skin color is an important visual cue for computer vision systems involving human users. In this paper we combine skin color and optical flow for detection and tracking of skin regions. We apply these techniques to gesture recognition with encouraging results. We propose a novel skin similarity measure. For grouping detected skin regions we propose a novel skin region grouping mechanism. The proposed techniques work with any number of skin regions making them suitable for a multiuser scenario.

Keywords: Bayesian tracking, chromaticity space, optical flowgesture recognition

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207 Evaluation of Classifiers Based On I2C Distance for Action Recognition

Authors: Lei Zhang, Tao Wang, Xiantong Zhen

Abstract:

Naive Bayes Nearest Neighbor (NBNN) and its variants, i,e., local NBNN and the NBNN kernels, are local feature-based classifiers that have achieved impressive performance in image classification. By exploiting instance-to-class (I2C) distances (instance means image/video in image/video classification), they avoid quantization errors of local image descriptors in the bag of words (BoW) model. However, the performances of NBNN, local NBNN and the NBNN kernels have not been validated on video analysis. In this paper, we introduce these three classifiers into human action recognition and conduct comprehensive experiments on the benchmark KTH and the realistic HMDB datasets. The results shows that those I2C based classifiers consistently outperform the SVM classifier with the BoW model.

Keywords: Instance-to-class distance, NBNN, Local NBNN, NBNN kernel.

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206 Development of Better Quality Low-Cost Activated Carbon from South African Pine Tree (Pinus patula) Sawdust: Characterization and Comparative Phenol Adsorption

Authors: L. Mukosha, M. S. Onyango, A. Ochieng, H. Kasaini

Abstract:

The remediation of water resources pollution in developing countries requires the application of alternative sustainable cheaper and efficient end-of-pipe wastewater treatment technologies. The feasibility of use of South African cheap and abundant pine tree (Pinus patula) sawdust for development of lowcost AC of comparable quality to expensive commercial ACs in the abatement of water pollution was investigated. AC was developed at optimized two-stage N2-superheated steam activation conditions in a fixed bed reactor, and characterized for proximate and ultimate properties, N2-BET surface area, pore size distribution, SEM, pHPZC and FTIR. The sawdust pyrolysis activation energy was evaluated by TGA. Results indicated that the chars prepared at 800oC and 2hrs were suitable for development of better quality AC at 800oC and 47% burn-off having BET surface area (1086m2/g), micropore volume (0.26cm3/g), and mesopore volume (0.43cm3/g) comparable to expensive commercial ACs, and suitable for water contaminants removal. The developed AC showed basic surface functionality at pHPZC at 10.3, and a phenol adsorption capacity that was higher than that of commercial Norit (RO 0.8) AC. Thus, it is feasible to develop better quality low-cost AC from (Pinus patula) sawdust using twostage N2-steam activation in fixed-bed reactor.

Keywords: Activated carbon, phenol adsorption, sawdust integrated utilization, economical wastewater treatment.

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205 Level of Acceptability of Moringa oleifera Diversified Products among Rural and Urban Dwellers in Nigeria

Authors: Mojisola F. Oyewole, Franscisca T. Adetoro, Nkiru T. Meludu

Abstract:

Moringa oleifera is a nutritious vegetable tree with varieties of potential uses, as almost every part of the Moringa oleifera tree can be used for food. This study was conducted in Oyo State, Nigeria, to find out the level of acceptability of Moringa oleifera diversified products among rural and urban dwellers. Purposive sampling was used to select two local governments’ areas. Stratified sampling technique was also used to select one community each from rural and urban areas while snowball sampling technique was used to select ten respondents each from the two communities, making a total number of forty respondents. Data were analyzed using frequencies, percentages, Chi-square, Pearson Product Moment Correlation and regression analysis. Result from the study revealed that majority of the respondents (80%) fell within the age range of 20-49 years and 55% of them were male, 55% were married, 70% of them were Christians, 80% of them had tertiary education. The result also showed that 85% were aware of the Moringa plant and (65%) of them have consumed Moringa oleifera and the perception statements on the benefits of Moringa oleifera indicated that (52.5%) of the respondents rated Moringa oleifera to be favorable, most of them had high acceptability for Moringa egusi soup, Moringa tea, Moringa pap and yam pottage with Moringa. The result of the hypotheses testing showed that there is a significant relationship between sex of the respondents and acceptability of the diversified Moringa oleifera products (x2=6.465, p = 0.011). There is also a significant relationship between family size of the respondents level of acceptability of the Moringa oleifera products (r = 0.327, p = 0.040). Based on the level of acceptability of Moringa oleifera diversified products; the plant is of great economic importance to the populace. Therefore, there should be more public awareness through the media to enlighten people on the beneficial effects of Moringa oleifera.

Keywords: Acceptability, Moringa oleifera, Diversified, Product, Dwellers.

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204 Information Fusion for Identity Verification

Authors: Girija Chetty, Monica Singh

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a novel approach for ascertaining human identity based on fusion of profile face and gait biometric cues The identification approach based on feature learning in PCA-LDA subspace, and classification using multivariate Bayesian classifiers allows significant improvement in recognition accuracy for low resolution surveillance video scenarios. The experimental evaluation of the proposed identification scheme on a publicly available database [2] showed that the fusion of face and gait cues in joint PCA-LDA space turns out to be a powerful method for capturing the inherent multimodality in walking gait patterns, and at the same time discriminating the person identity..

Keywords: Biometrics, gait recognition, PCA, LDA, Eigenface, Fisherface, Multivariate Gaussian Classifier

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203 Automatic Microaneurysm Quantification for Diabetic Retinopathy Screening

Authors: A. Sopharak, B. Uyyanonvara, S. Barman

Abstract:

Microaneurysm is a key indicator of diabetic retinopathy that can potentially cause damage to retina. Early detection and automatic quantification are the keys to prevent further damage. In this paper, which focuses on automatic microaneurysm detection in images acquired through non-dilated pupils, we present a series of experiments on feature selection and automatic microaneurysm pixel classification. We found that the best feature set is a combination of 10 features: the pixel-s intensity of shade corrected image, the pixel hue, the standard deviation of shade corrected image, DoG4, the area of the candidate MA, the perimeter of the candidate MA, the eccentricity of the candidate MA, the circularity of the candidate MA, the mean intensity of the candidate MA on shade corrected image and the ratio of the major axis length and minor length of the candidate MA. The overall sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy are 84.82%, 99.99%, 89.01%, and 99.99%, respectively.

Keywords: Diabetic retinopathy, microaneurysm, naive Bayes classifier

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202 Soil Evaluation for Cashew, Cocoa and Oil Palm in Akure, South-West Nigeria

Authors: Francis Bukola Dada, Samuel Ojo Ajayi, Babatunde Sunday Ewulo, Kehinde Oseni Saani

Abstract:

A key element in the sustainability of the soil-plant relationship in crop yield and performance is the soil's capacity to support tree crops prior to establishment. With the intention of determining the suitability and limitations of the soils of the locations, the northern and southern portions of Akure, a rainforest in Nigeria, were chosen for the suitability evaluation of land for tree crops. In the study area, 16 pedons were established with the help of the Global Positioning System (GPS), the locations were georeferenced and samples were taken from the pedons. The samples were subjected to standard physical and chemical testing. The findings revealed that soils in the research locations were deep to extremely deep, with pH ranging from highly acidic to slightly acidic (4.94 to 6.71). and that sand predominated. The soils had low levels of organic carbon, effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC), total nitrogen, and available phosphorus, whereas exchangeable cations were evaluated as low to moderate. The suitability result indicated that only Pedon 2 and Pedon 14 are currently highly suitable (S1) for the production of oil palms, while others ranged from moderately suitable to marginally suitable. Pedons 4, 12, and 16 were not suitable (N1), respectively, but other Pedons were moderately suitable (S2) and marginally suitable (S3) for the cultivation of cocoa. None of the study areas are currently highly suitable for the production of oil palms. The poor soil texture and low fertility status were the two main drawbacks found. Finally, sound management practices and soil conservation are essential for fertility sustainability.

Keywords: Cashew, cocoa, land evaluation, oil palm, soil fertility suitability.

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201 Integrating Security Indifference Curve to Formal Decision Evaluation

Authors: Anon Yantarasri, Yachai Limpiyakorn

Abstract:

Decisions are regularly made during a project or daily life. Some decisions are critical and have a direct impact on project or human success. Formal evaluation is thus required, especially for crucial decisions, to arrive at the optimal solution among alternatives to address issues. According to microeconomic theory, all people-s decisions can be modeled as indifference curves. The proposed approach supports formal analysis and decision by constructing indifference curve model from the previous experts- decision criteria. These knowledge embedded in the system can be reused or help naïve users select alternative solution of the similar problem. Moreover, the method is flexible to cope with unlimited number of factors influencing the decision-making. The preliminary experimental results of the alternative selection are accurately matched with the expert-s decisions.

Keywords: Decision Analysis and Resolution, Indifference Curve, Multi-criteria Decision Making.

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200 Customer Churn Prediction Using Four Machine Learning Algorithms Integrating Feature Selection and Normalization in the Telecom Sector

Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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199 Case Study Analysis of 2017 European Railway Traffic Management Incident: The Application of System for Investigation of Railway Interfaces Methodology

Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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198 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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197 Integrating Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques in E-learning Environments

Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

Abstract:

In this contribution a newly developed elearning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.

Keywords: E-learning environments, intelligent agents, user modeling, Bayesian Networks, computational intelligence.

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196 Some New Bounds for a Real Power of the Normalized Laplacian Eigenvalues

Authors: Ayşe Dilek Maden

Abstract:

For a given a simple connected graph, we present some new bounds via a new approach for a special topological index given by the sum of the real number power of the non-zero normalized Laplacian eigenvalues. To use this approach presents an advantage not only to derive old and new bounds on this topic but also gives an idea how some previous results in similar area can be developed.

Keywords: Degree Kirchhoff index, normalized Laplacian eigenvalue, spanning tree.

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195 Wavelet Feature Selection Approach for Heart Murmur Classification

Authors: G. Venkata Hari Prasad, P. Rajesh Kumar

Abstract:

Phonocardiography is important in appraisal of congenital heart disease and pulmonary hypertension as it reflects the duration of right ventricular systoles. The systolic murmur in patients with intra-cardiac shunt decreases as pulmonary hypertension develops and may eventually disappear completely as the pulmonary pressure reaches systemic level. Phonocardiography and auscultation are non-invasive, low-cost, and accurate methods to assess heart disease. In this work an objective signal processing tool to extract information from phonocardiography signal using Wavelet is proposed to classify the murmur as normal or abnormal. Since the feature vector is large, a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with mutation for feature selection is proposed. The extracted features improve the classification accuracy and were tested across various classifiers including Naïve Bayes, kNN, C4.5, and SVM.

Keywords: Phonocardiography, Coiflet, Feature selection, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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194 Computational Intelligence Techniques and Agents- Technology in E-learning Environments

Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

Abstract:

In this contribution a newly developed e-learning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.

Keywords: Computational Intelligence, E-learning Environments, Intelligent Agents, User Modelling, Bayesian Networks.

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193 Integrating Context Priors into a Decision Tree Classification Scheme

Authors: Kasim Terzic, Bernd Neumann

Abstract:

Scene interpretation systems need to match (often ambiguous) low-level input data to concepts from a high-level ontology. In many domains, these decisions are uncertain and benefit greatly from proper context. This paper demonstrates the use of decision trees for estimating class probabilities for regions described by feature vectors, and shows how context can be introduced in order to improve the matching performance.

Keywords: Classification, Decision Trees, Interpretation, Vision

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192 A New Distribution Network Reconfiguration Approach using a Tree Model

Authors: E. Dolatdar, S. Soleymani, B. Mozafari

Abstract:

Power loss reduction is one of the main targets in power industry and so in this paper, the problem of finding the optimal configuration of a radial distribution system for loss reduction is considered. Optimal reconfiguration involves the selection of the best set of branches to be opened ,one each from each loop, for reducing resistive line losses , and reliving overloads on feeders by shifting the load to adjacent feeders. However ,since there are many candidate switching combinations in the system ,the feeder reconfiguration is a complicated problem. In this paper a new approach is proposed based on a simple optimum loss calculation by determining optimal trees of the given network. From graph theory a distribution network can be represented with a graph that consists a set of nodes and branches. In fact this problem can be viewed as a problem of determining an optimal tree of the graph which simultaneously ensure radial structure of each candidate topology .In this method the refined genetic algorithm is also set up and some improvements of algorithm are made on chromosome coding. In this paper an implementation of the algorithm presented by [7] is applied by modifying in load flow program and a comparison of this method with the proposed method is employed. In [7] an algorithm is proposed that the choice of the switches to be opened is based on simple heuristic rules. This algorithm reduce the number of load flow runs and also reduce the switching combinations to a fewer number and gives the optimum solution. To demonstrate the validity of these methods computer simulations with PSAT and MATLAB programs are carried out on 33-bus test system. The results show that the performance of the proposed method is better than [7] method and also other methods.

Keywords: Distribution System, Reconfiguration, Loss Reduction , Graph Theory , Optimization , Genetic Algorithm

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191 Modelling the Occurrence of Defects and Change Requests during User Acceptance Testing

Authors: Kevin McDaid, Simon P. Wilson

Abstract:

Software developed for a specific customer under contract typically undergoes a period of testing by the customer before acceptance. This is known as user acceptance testing and the process can reveal both defects in the system and requests for changes to the product. This paper uses nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model a real user acceptance data set from a recently developed system. In particular a split Poisson process is shown to provide an excellent fit to the data. The paper explains how this model can be used to aid the allocation of resources through the accurate prediction of occurrences both during the acceptance testing phase and before this activity begins.

Keywords: User acceptance testing. Software reliability growth modelling. Split Poisson process. Bayesian methods.

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190 Analysis of a Population of Diabetic Patients Databases with Classifiers

Authors: Murat Koklu, Yavuz Unal

Abstract:

Data mining can be called as a technique to extract information from data. It is the process of obtaining hidden information and then turning it into qualified knowledge by statistical and artificial intelligence technique. One of its application areas is medical area to form decision support systems for diagnosis just by inventing meaningful information from given medical data. In this study a decision support system for diagnosis of illness that make use of data mining and three different artificial intelligence classifier algorithms namely Multilayer Perceptron, Naive Bayes Classifier and J.48. Pima Indian dataset of UCI Machine Learning Repository was used. This dataset includes urinary and blood test results of 768 patients. These test results consist of 8 different feature vectors. Obtained classifying results were compared with the previous studies. The suggestions for future studies were presented.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Classifiers, Data Mining, Diabetic Patients.

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