Search results for: loss distribution approach
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7364

Search results for: loss distribution approach

7364 Loss Reduction and Reliability Improvement of Industrial Distribution System through Network Reconfiguration

Authors: Ei Ei Phyu, Kyaw Myo Lin, Thin Thin Moe

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach to improve the reliability and reduce line losses of practical distribution system applying network reconfiguration. The change of the topology redirects the power flow within the distribution network to obtain better performance of the system. Practical distribution network (Pyigyitagon Industrial Zone (I)) is used as the case study network. The detailed calculations of the reliability indices are done by using analytical method and power flow calculation is performed by Newton-Rephason solver. The comparison of various network reconfiguration techniques are described with respect to power loss and reliability index levels. Finally, the optimal reconfigured network is selected among difference cases based on the two factors: the most reliable network and the least loss minimization.

Keywords: Distribution system reliability, loss reduction, network reconfiguration, reliability enhancement, reliability indices.

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7363 Minimization of Power Loss in Distribution Networks by Different Techniques

Authors: L.Ramesh, S.P.Chowdhury, S.Chowdhury, A.A.Natarajan, C.T.Gaunt

Abstract:

Accurate loss minimization is the critical component for efficient electrical distribution power flow .The contribution of this work presents loss minimization in power distribution system through feeder restructuring, incorporating DG and placement of capacitor. The study of this work was conducted on IEEE distribution network and India Electricity Board benchmark distribution system. The executed experimental result of Indian system is recommended to board and implement practically for regulated stable output.

Keywords: Distribution system, Distributed Generation LossMinimization, Network Restructuring

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7362 Operational Risk – Scenario Analysis

Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

Abstract:

This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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7361 A New Heuristic Approach for Optimal Network Reconfiguration in Distribution Systems

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao, S. V. L. Narasimham

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel approach for optimal reconfiguration of radial distribution systems. Optimal reconfiguration involves the selection of the best set of branches to be opened, one each from each loop, such that the resulting radial distribution system gets the desired performance. In this paper an algorithm is proposed based on simple heuristic rules and identified an effective switch status configuration of distribution system for the minimum loss reduction. This proposed algorithm consists of two parts; one is to determine the best switching combinations in all loops with minimum computational effort and the other is simple optimum power loss calculation of the best switching combination found in part one by load flows. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on 33-bus system. The results show that the performance of the proposed method is better than that of the other methods.

Keywords: Distribution system, network reconfiguration, powerloss reduction, radial network, heuristic technique.

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7360 An Hybrid Approach for Loss Reduction in Distribution Systems using Harmony Search Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

Individually Network reconfiguration or Capacitor control perform well in minimizing power loss and improving voltage profile of the distribution system. But for heavy reactive power loads network reconfiguration and for heavy active power loads capacitor placement can not effectively reduce power loss and enhance voltage profiles in the system. In this paper, an hybrid approach that combine network reconfiguration and capacitor placement using Harmony Search Algorithm (HSA) is proposed to minimize power loss reduction and improve voltage profile. The proposed approach is tested on standard IEEE 33 and 16 bus systems. Computational results show that the proposed hybrid approach can minimize losses more efficiently than Network reconfiguration or Capacitor control. The results of proposed method are also compared with results obtained by Simulated Annealing (SA). The proposed method has outperformed in terms of the quality of solution compared to SA.

Keywords: Capacitor Control, Network Reconfiguration, HarmonySearch Algorithm, Loss Reduction, Voltage Profile.

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7359 Loss Analysis by Loading Conditions of Distribution Transformers

Authors: A. Bozkurt, C. Kocatepe, R. Yumurtaci, İ. C. Tastan, G. Tulun

Abstract:

Efficient use of energy, the increase in demand of energy and also with the reduction of natural energy sources, has improved its importance in recent years. Most of the losses in the system from electricity produced until the point of consumption is mostly composed by the energy distribution system. In this study, analysis of the resulting loss in power distribution transformer and distribution power cable is realized which are most of the losses in the distribution system. Transformer losses in the real distribution system are analyzed by CYME Power Engineering Software program. These losses are disclosed for different voltage levels and different loading conditions.

Keywords: Distribution system, distribution transformer, power cable, technical losses.

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7358 Capacitor Placement in Radial Distribution System for Loss Reduction Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method which applies an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) for capacitor placement in distribution systems with an objective of improving the voltage profile and reduction of power loss. The ABC algorithm is a new population based meta heuristic approach inspired by intelligent foraging behavior of honeybee swarm. The advantage of ABC algorithm is that it does not require external parameters such as cross over rate and mutation rate as in case of genetic algorithm and differential evolution and it is hard to determine these parameters in prior. The other advantage is that the global search ability in the algorithm is implemented by introducing neighborhood source production mechanism which is a similar to mutation process. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on 69-bus system and compared the results with the other approach available in the literature. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution and computational efficiency.

Keywords: Distribution system, Capacitor Placement, Loss reduction, Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.

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7357 Feeder Reconfiguration for Loss Reduction in Unbalanced Distribution System Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Ganesh. Vulasala, Sivanagaraju. Sirigiri, Ramana. Thiruveedula

Abstract:

This paper presents an efficient approach to feeder reconfiguration for power loss reduction and voltage profile imprvement in unbalanced radial distribution systems (URDS). In this paper Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to obtain solution for reconfiguration of radial distribution systems to minimize the losses. A forward and backward algorithm is used to calculate load flows in unbalanced distribution systems. By simulating the survival of the fittest among the strings, the optimum string is searched by randomized information exchange between strings by performing crossover and mutation. Results have shown that proposed algorithm has advantages over previous algorithms The proposed method is effectively tested on 19 node and 25 node unbalanced radial distribution systems.

Keywords: Distribution system, Load flows, Reconfiguration, Genetic Algorithm.

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7356 Optimization of Distribution Network Configuration for Loss Reduction Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao, S.V.L. Narasimham, M. Ramalingaraju

Abstract:

Network reconfiguration in distribution system is realized by changing the status of sectionalizing switches to reduce the power loss in the system. This paper presents a new method which applies an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) for determining the sectionalizing switch to be operated in order to solve the distribution system loss minimization problem. The ABC algorithm is a new population based metaheuristic approach inspired by intelligent foraging behavior of honeybee swarm. The advantage of ABC algorithm is that it does not require external parameters such as cross over rate and mutation rate as in case of genetic algorithm and differential evolution and it is hard to determine these parameters in prior. The other advantage is that the global search ability in the algorithm is implemented by introducing neighborhood source production mechanism which is a similar to mutation process. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on 14, 33, and 119-bus systems and compared with different approaches available in the literature. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution and computational efficiency.

Keywords: Distribution system, Network reconfiguration, Loss reduction, Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.

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7355 Overview of Operational Risk Management Methods

Authors: Milan Rippel, Pert Teplý

Abstract:

Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.

Keywords: Operational risk, economic capital, key risk indicators, loss distribution approach.

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7354 Optimal Capacitor Allocation for loss reduction in Distribution System Using Fuzzy and Plant Growth Simulation Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a new and efficient approach for capacitor placement in radial distribution systems that determine the optimal locations and size of capacitor with an objective of improving the voltage profile and reduction of power loss. The solution methodology has two parts: in part one the loss sensitivity factors are used to select the candidate locations for the capacitor placement and in part two a new algorithm that employs Plant growth Simulation Algorithm (PGSA) is used to estimate the optimal size of capacitors at the optimal buses determined in part one. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it does not require any external control parameters. The other advantage is that it handles the objective function and the constraints separately, avoiding the trouble to determine the barrier factors. The proposed method is applied to 9 and 34 bus radial distribution systems. The solutions obtained by the proposed method are compared with other methods. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution.

Keywords: Distribution systems, Capacitor allocation, Loss reduction, Fuzzy, PGSA.

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7353 Optimal Capacitor Placement in a Radial Distribution System using Plant Growth Simulation Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao, S. V. L. Narasimham

Abstract:

This paper presents a new and efficient approach for capacitor placement in radial distribution systems that determine the optimal locations and size of capacitor with an objective of improving the voltage profile and reduction of power loss. The solution methodology has two parts: in part one the loss sensitivity factors are used to select the candidate locations for the capacitor placement and in part two a new algorithm that employs Plant growth Simulation Algorithm (PGSA) is used to estimate the optimal size of capacitors at the optimal buses determined in part one. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it does not require any external control parameters. The other advantage is that it handles the objective function and the constraints separately, avoiding the trouble to determine the barrier factors. The proposed method is applied to 9, 34, and 85-bus radial distribution systems. The solutions obtained by the proposed method are compared with other methods. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution.

Keywords: Distribution systems, Capacitor placement, loss reduction, Loss sensitivity factors, PGSA.

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7352 Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss

Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

Abstract:

This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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7351 Optimal Allocation of DG Units for Power Loss Reduction and Voltage Profile Improvement of Distribution Networks using PSO Algorithm

Authors: K. Varesi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based technique for the optimal allocation of Distributed Generation (DG) units in the power systems. In this paper our aim is to decide optimal number, type, size and location of DG units for voltage profile improvement and power loss reduction in distribution network. Two types of DGs are considered and the distribution load flow is used to calculate exact loss. Load flow algorithm is combined appropriately with PSO till access to acceptable results of this operation. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software. Test results indicate that PSO method can obtain better results than the simple heuristic search method on the 30-bus and 33- bus radial distribution systems. It can obtain maximum loss reduction for each of two types of optimally placed multi-DGs. Moreover, voltage profile improvement is achieved.

Keywords: Distributed Generation (DG), Optimal Allocation, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Power Loss Minimization, Voltage Profile Improvement.

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7350 GA based Optimal Sizing and Placement of Distributed Generation for Loss Minimization

Authors: Deependra Singh, Devender Singh, K. S. Verma

Abstract:

This paper addresses a novel technique for placement of distributed generation (DG) in electric power systems. A GA based approach for sizing and placement of DG keeping in view of system power loss minimization in different loading conditions is explained. Minimal system power loss is obtained under voltage and line loading constraints. Proposed strategy is applied to power distribution systems and its effectiveness is verified through simulation results on 16, 37-bus and 75-bus test systems.

Keywords: Distributed generation (DG), Genetic algorithms (GA), optimal sizing and placement, Power loss.

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7349 Characterization and Modeling of Packet Loss of a VoIP Communication

Authors: L. Estrada, D. Torres, H. Toral

Abstract:

In this work, a characterization and modeling of packet loss of a Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) communication is developed. The distributions of the number of consecutive received and lost packets (namely gap and burst) are modeled from the transition probabilities of two-state and four-state model. Measurements show that both models describe adequately the burst distribution, but the decay of gap distribution for non-homogeneous losses is better fit by the four-state model. The respective probabilities of transition between states for each model were estimated with a proposed algorithm from a set of monitored VoIP calls in order to obtain representative minimum, maximum and average values for both models.

Keywords: Packet loss, gap and burst distribution, Markovchain, VoIP measurements.

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7348 Estimation of the Upper Tail Dependence Coefficient for Insurance Loss Data Using an Empirical Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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7347 On Bayesian Analysis of Failure Rate under Topp Leone Distribution using Complete and Censored Samples

Authors: N. Feroze, M. Aslam

Abstract:

The article is concerned with analysis of failure rate (shape parameter) under the Topp Leone distribution using a Bayesian framework. Different loss functions and a couple of noninformative priors have been assumed for posterior estimation. The posterior predictive distributions have also been derived. A simulation study has been carried to compare the performance of different estimators. A real life example has been used to illustrate the applicability of the results obtained. The findings of the study suggest  that the precautionary loss function based on Jeffreys prior and singly type II censored samples can effectively be employed to obtain the Bayes estimate of the failure rate under Topp Leone distribution.

Keywords: loss functions, type II censoring, posterior distribution, Bayes estimators.

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7346 Optimal DG Placement in Distribution systems Using Cost/Worth Analysis

Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

Abstract:

DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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7345 Estimating Regression Effects in Com Poisson Generalized Linear Model

Authors: Vandna Jowaheer, Naushad A. Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Com Poisson distribution is capable of modeling the count responses irrespective of their mean variance relation and the parameters of this distribution when fitted to a simple cross sectional data can be efficiently estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) method. In the regression setup, however, ML estimation of the parameters of the Com Poisson based generalized linear model is computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose to use quasilikelihood (QL) approach to estimate the effect of the covariates on the Com Poisson counts and investigate the performance of this method with respect to the ML method. QL estimates are consistent and almost as efficient as ML estimates. The simulation studies show that the efficiency loss in the estimation of all the parameters using QL approach as compared to ML approach is quite negligible, whereas QL approach is lesser involving than ML approach.

Keywords: Com Poisson, Cross-sectional, Maximum Likelihood, Quasi likelihood

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7344 A New Distribution Network Reconfiguration Approach using a Tree Model

Authors: E. Dolatdar, S. Soleymani, B. Mozafari

Abstract:

Power loss reduction is one of the main targets in power industry and so in this paper, the problem of finding the optimal configuration of a radial distribution system for loss reduction is considered. Optimal reconfiguration involves the selection of the best set of branches to be opened ,one each from each loop, for reducing resistive line losses , and reliving overloads on feeders by shifting the load to adjacent feeders. However ,since there are many candidate switching combinations in the system ,the feeder reconfiguration is a complicated problem. In this paper a new approach is proposed based on a simple optimum loss calculation by determining optimal trees of the given network. From graph theory a distribution network can be represented with a graph that consists a set of nodes and branches. In fact this problem can be viewed as a problem of determining an optimal tree of the graph which simultaneously ensure radial structure of each candidate topology .In this method the refined genetic algorithm is also set up and some improvements of algorithm are made on chromosome coding. In this paper an implementation of the algorithm presented by [7] is applied by modifying in load flow program and a comparison of this method with the proposed method is employed. In [7] an algorithm is proposed that the choice of the switches to be opened is based on simple heuristic rules. This algorithm reduce the number of load flow runs and also reduce the switching combinations to a fewer number and gives the optimum solution. To demonstrate the validity of these methods computer simulations with PSAT and MATLAB programs are carried out on 33-bus test system. The results show that the performance of the proposed method is better than [7] method and also other methods.

Keywords: Distribution System, Reconfiguration, Loss Reduction , Graph Theory , Optimization , Genetic Algorithm

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7343 Optimal Placement of DG in Distribution System to Mitigate Power Quality Disturbances

Authors: G.V.K Murthy, S. Sivanagaraju, S. Satyanarayana, B. Hanumantha Rao

Abstract:

Distributed Generation (DG) systems are considered an integral part in future distribution system planning. Appropriate size and location of distributed generation plays a significant role in minimizing power losses in distribution systems. Among the benefits of distributed generation is the reduction in active power losses, which can improve the system performance, reliability and power quality. In this paper, Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal DG-unit size and location by loss sensitivity index in order to minimize the real power loss, total harmonic distortion (THD) and voltage sag index improvement. Simulation study is conducted on 69-bus radial test system to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

Keywords: Distributed generation, artificial bee colony method, loss reduction, radial distribution network.

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7342 Optimal Planning of Dispatchable Distributed Generators for Power Loss Reduction in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

Authors: Mahmoud M. Othman, Y. G. Hegazy, A. Y. Abdelaziz

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel heuristic algorithm that aims to determine the best size and location of distributed generators in unbalanced distribution networks. The proposed heuristic algorithm can deal with the planning cases where power loss is to be optimized without violating the system practical constraints. The distributed generation units in the proposed algorithm is modeled as voltage controlled node with the flexibility to be converted to constant power factor node in case of reactive power limit violation. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB and tested on the IEEE 37 -node feeder. The results obtained show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. 

Keywords: Distributed generation, heuristic approach, Optimization, planning.

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7341 Optimal Planning of Voltage Controlled Distributed Generators for Power Loss Reduction in Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Authors: Mahmoud M. Othman, Yasser G. Hegazy

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel heuristic algorithm that aims to determine the best size and location of distributed generators in unbalanced distribution networks. The proposed heuristic algorithm can deal with the planning cases where power loss is to be optimized without violating the system practical constraints. The distributed generation units in the proposed algorithm is modeled as voltage controlled node with the flexibility to be converted to constant power factor node in case of reactive power limit violation. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB and tested on the IEEE 37 -node feeder. The results obtained show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Distributed generation, heuristic approach, Optimization, planning.

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7340 Experimental Investigation of On-Body Channel Modelling at 2.45 GHz

Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.

Keywords: On-Body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model.

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7339 A Reliable Secure Multicast Key Distribution Scheme for Mobile Adhoc Networks

Authors: D. SuganyaDevi, G. Padmavathi

Abstract:

Reliable secure multicast communication in mobile adhoc networks is challenging due to its inherent characteristics of infrastructure-less architecture with lack of central authority, high packet loss rates and limited resources such as bandwidth, time and power. Many emerging commercial and military applications require secure multicast communication in adhoc environments. Hence key management is the fundamental challenge in achieving reliable secure communication using multicast key distribution for mobile adhoc networks. Thus in designing a reliable multicast key distribution scheme, reliability and congestion control over throughput are essential components. This paper proposes and evaluates the performance of an enhanced optimized multicast cluster tree algorithm with destination sequenced distance vector routing protocol to provide reliable multicast key distribution. Simulation results in NS2 accurately predict the performance of proposed scheme in terms of key delivery ratio and packet loss rate under varying network conditions. This proposed scheme achieves reliability, while exhibiting low packet loss rate with high key delivery ratio compared with the existing scheme.

Keywords: Key Distribution, Mobile Adhoc Network, Multicast and Reliability.

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7338 Application of GAMS and GA in the Location and Penetration of Distributed Generation

Authors: Alireza Dehghani Pilehvarani, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Mohammad Jafari Far, Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Distributed Generation (DG) can help in reducing the cost of electricity to the costumer, relieve network congestion and provide environmentally friendly energy close to load centers. Its capacity is also scalable and it provides voltage support at distribution level. Hence, DG placement and penetration level is an important problem for both the utility and DG owner. DG allocation and capacity determination is a nonlinear optimization problem. The objective function of this problem is the minimization of the total loss of the distribution system. Also high levels of penetration of DG are a new challenge for traditional electric power systems. This paper presents a new methodology for the optimal placement of DG and penetration level of DG in distribution system based on General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA).

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Location, Loss Reduction, Distribution Network, GA, GAMS.

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7337 On the Parameter of the Burr Type X under Bayesian Principles

Authors: T. N. Sindhu, M. Aslam

Abstract:

A comprehensive Bayesian analysis has been carried out in the context of informative and non-informative priors for the shape parameter of the Burr type X distribution under different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Elicitation of hyperparameter through prior predictive approach is also discussed. Also we derive the expression for posterior predictive distributions, predictive intervals and the credible Intervals. As an illustration, comparisons of these estimators are made through simulation study.

Keywords: Credible Intervals, Loss Functions, Posterior Predictive Distributions, Predictive Intervals.

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7336 Bayesian Decision Approach to Protection on the Flood Event in Upper Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar

Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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7335 Effect of DG Installation in Distribution System for Voltage Monitoring Scheme

Authors: S. R. A. Rahim, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, M. H. Hussain

Abstract:

Loss minimization is a long progressing issue mainly in distribution system. Nevertheless its effect led to temperature rise due to significant voltage drop through the distribution line. Thus, compensation scheme should be proper scheduled in the attempt to alleviate the voltage drop phenomenon. Distributed generation has been profoundly known for voltage profile improvement; provided that over-compensation or under-compensation phenomena are avoided. This paper addresses the issue of voltage improvement through different type DG installation. In ensuring optimal sizing and location of the DGs, pre-developed EMEFA technique was made use for this purpose. Incremental loading condition subjected to the system is the concern such that it is beneficial to the power system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation, EMEFA, power loss, voltage profile.

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