Search results for: logistic performance

Authors: Thorben Kuprat, Julian Becker, Jonas Mayer, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

For years now, it has been recognized that logistic performance capability contributes enormously to a production enterprise’s competitiveness and as such is a critical control lever. In doing so, the orientation on customer wishes (e.g. delivery dates) represents a key parameter not only in the value-adding production but also in product regeneration. Since production and regeneration processes have different characteristics, production planning and control measures cannot be directly transferred to regeneration processes. As part of a special research project, the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics Hannover is focused on increasing the logistic performance capability of regeneration processes for complex capital goods. The aim is to ensure logistic targets are met by implementing a model specifically designed to align the capacities and load in regeneration processes.

Keywords: Capacity planning, complex capital goods, logistic performance, regeneration process.

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Authors: Jonas Mayer, Kai-Frederic Seitz, Thorben Kuprat

Abstract:

In today’s competitive environment production’s logistic objectives such as ‘delivery reliability’ and ‘delivery time’ and distribution’s logistic objectives such as ‘service level’ and ‘delivery delay’ are attributed great importance. Especially for small and mid-sized enterprises (SME) attaining these objectives pose a key challenge. Within this context, one of the difficulties is that interactions between departments within the enterprise and their specific objectives are insufficiently taken into account and aligned. Interdepartmental independencies along with contradicting targets set within the different departments result in enterprises having sub-optimal logistic performance capability. This paper presents a research project which will systematically describe the interactions between departments and convert them into a quantifiable form.

Keywords: Department-specific actuating and control variables, interdepartmental interactions, cybernetic model, logistic objectives.

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Authors: Marco Kennemann, Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Peter Nyhuis

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An increasingly dynamic and complex environment poses huge challenges to production enterprises, especially with regards to logistics. The Logistic Operating Curve Theory, developed at the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics (IFA) of the Leibniz University of Hanover, is a recognized approach to describing logistic interactions, nevertheless, it reaches its limits when it comes to the dynamic aspects. In order to facilitate a timely and optimal Logistic Positioning a method is developed for quickly and reliably identifying dynamic processing states.

Keywords: Dynamics, Logistic Operating Curves, Production Logistics, Production Planning and Control

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Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

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In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: Reverse logistics, Network design, Performance model, Open loop configuration.

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Marco Kennemann, Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Due to the growing dynamic and complexity within the market environment production enterprises in particular are faced with new logistic challenges. Moreover, it is here in this dynamic environment that the Logistic Operating Curve Theory also reaches its limits as a method for describing the correlations between the logistic objectives. In order to convert this theory into a method for dynamically monitoring productions this paper will introduce methods for reliably and quickly identifying structural changes relevant to logistics.

Keywords: Dynamics, Logistic Operating Curves, Production Logistics, Production Planning and Control

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Authors: Abdellatif Tchantchane

Abstract:

A Matlab based software for logistic regression is developed to enhance the process of teaching quantitative topics and assist researchers with analyzing wide area of applications where categorical data is involved. The software offers an option of performing stepwise logistic regression to select the most significant predictors. The software includes a feature to detect influential observations in data, and investigates the effect of dropping or misclassifying an observation on a predictor variable. The input data may consist either as a set of individual responses (yes/no) with the predictor variables or as grouped records summarizing various categories for each unique set of predictor variables' values. Graphical displays are used to output various statistical results and to assess the goodness of fit of the logistic regression model. The software recognizes possible convergence constraints when present in data, and the user is notified accordingly.

Keywords: Logistic regression, Matlab, Categorical data, Influential observation.

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Authors: Sin Yin Teh, Abdul Rahman Othman, Michael Boon Chong Khoo

Abstract:

In this paper, the concepts of dichotomous logistic regression (DLR) with leave-one-out (L-O-O) were discussed. To illustrate this, the L-O-O was run to determine the importance of the simulation conditions for robust test of spread procedures with good Type I error rates. The resultant model was then evaluated. The discussions included 1) assessment of the accuracy of the model, and 2) parameter estimates. These were presented and illustrated by modeling the relationship between the dichotomous dependent variable (Type I error rates) with a set of independent variables (the simulation conditions). The base SAS software containing PROC LOGISTIC and DATA step functions can be making used to do the DLR analysis.

Keywords: Dichotomous logistic regression, leave-one-out, testof spread.

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Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

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It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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Authors: Hongmin Deng, Qionghua Wang

Abstract:

A modified two dimensional (2D) logistic map based on cross feedback control is proposed. This 2D map exhibits more random chaotic dynamical properties than the classic one dimensional (1D) logistic map in the statistical characteristics analysis. So it is utilized as the pseudo-random (PN) sequence generator, where the obtained real-valued PN sequence is quantized at first, then applied to radio frequency identification (RFID) communication system in this paper. This system is experimentally validated on a cortex-M₀ development board, which shows the effectiveness in key generation, the size of key space and security. At last, further cryptanalysis is studied through the test suite in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Keywords: Chaos encryption, logistic map, pseudo-random sequence, RFID.

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Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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Authors: Hui-Min Ting, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Ming-Yuan Cho, Pei-Ju Chao, Chun-Ming Chang, Long-Chang Chen, Fu-Min Fang

Abstract:

To evaluate the ability to predict xerostomia after radiotherapy, we constructed and compared neural network and logistic regression models. In this study, 61 patients who completed a questionnaire about their quality of life (QoL) before and after a full course of radiation therapy were included. Based on this questionnaire, some statistical data about the condition of the patients’ salivary glands were obtained, and these subjects were included as the inputs of the neural network and logistic regression models in order to predict the probability of xerostomia. Seven variables were then selected from the statistical data according to Cramer’s V and point-biserial correlation values and were trained by each model to obtain the respective outputs which were 0.88 and 0.89 for AUC, 9.20 and 7.65 for SSE, and 13.7% and 19.0% for MAPE, respectively. These parameters demonstrate that both neural network and logistic regression methods are effective for predicting conditions of parotid glands.

Keywords: NPC, ANN, logistic regression, xerostomia.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

Abstract:

Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords:

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Authors: R. Kenova, K. Anguelov, R. Nikolova

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The human factor plays a major role in boosting the competitive capacity of logistic enterprises. This is of particular importance when it comes to logistic companies. On the one hand they should be strictly compliant with legislation; on the other hand, they should be competitive in terms of pricing and of delivery timelines. Moreover, their policies should allow them to be as flexible as possible. All these circumstances are reason for very serious challenges for the qualification, motivation and experience of the human resources, working in logistic companies or in logistic departments of trade and industrial enterprises. The geographic place of Bulgaria puts it in position of a country with some specific competitive advantages in the goods transport from Europe to Asia and back. Along with it, there is a number of logistic companies, that operate in this sphere in Bulgaria. In the current paper, the authors aim to establish the condition of the administrative capacity and human resources in the logistic companies and logistic departments of trade and industrial companies in Bulgaria in order to propose some guidelines for improving of their effectiveness. Due to independent empirical research, conducted in Bulgarian logistic, trade and industrial enterprises, the authors investigate both the impact degree and the interdependence of various factors that characterize the administrative capacity. The study is conducted with a prepared questionnaire, in format of direct interview with the respondents. The volume of the poll is 50 respondents, representatives of: general managers of industrial or trade enterprises; logistic managers of industrial or trade enterprises; general managers of forwarding companies – either with own or with hired transport; experts from Bulgarian association of logistics; logistic lobbyist and scientists of the relevant area. The data are gathered for 3 months, then arranged by a specialized software program and analyzed by preset criteria. Based on the results of this methodological toolbox, it can be claimed that there is a correlation between the individual criteria. Also, a commitment between the administrative capacity and other factors that determine the competitiveness of the studied companies is established. In this paper, the authors present results of the empirical research that concerns the number and the workload in the logistic departments of the enterprises. Also, what is commented is the experience, related to logistic processes management and human resources competence. Moreover, the overload level of the logistic specialists is analyzed as one of the main threats for making mistakes and losing clients. The paper stands behind the thesis that there is indispensability of forming an effective and efficient administrative capacity, based on the number, qualification, experience and motivation of the staff in the logistic companies. The paper ends with recommendations about the qualification and experience of the specialists in logistic departments; providing effective and efficient administrative capacity in the logistic departments; interdependence of the human factor and the other factors that influence the enterprise competitiveness.

Keywords: Administrative capacity, human resources, logistic competitiveness, staff qualification.

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Authors: Michael Grigutsch, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Due to the volatile global economy, enterprises are increasingly focusing on logistics. By investing in suitable measures a company can increase their logistic performance and assert themselves over the competition. However, enterprises are also faced with the challenge of investing available capital for maximum profits. In order to be able to create an informed and quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need a suitable model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures in production. Previously, within the frame of Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the Institute for Production Systems and Logistics, (IFA) a Logistic Information System was developed specifically for providing enterprises in the forging industry with support when making decisions. Based on this research, a new initiative referred to as ‘Transfer Project T7’, aims to develop a universal approach for logistically and monetarily evaluating production measures. This paper focuses on the structural measure echelon storage and their impact on the entire production system.

Keywords: Logistic Operating Curves, Transfer Functions, Production Logistics, Storages Echelon.

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Authors: M. Sitoe, O. Zacarias

Abstract:

University education is influenced by several factors that range from the adoption of strategies to strengthen the whole process to the academic performance improvement of the students themselves. This work uses data mining techniques to develop a predictive model to identify students with a tendency to evasion and retention. To this end, a database of real students’ data from the Department of University Admission (DAU) and the Department of Mathematics and Informatics (DMI) was used. The data comprised 388 undergraduate students admitted in the years 2009 to 2014. The Weka tool was used for model building, using three different techniques, namely: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and logistic regression. To allow for training on multiple train-test splits, a cross-validation approach was employed with a varying number of folds. To reduce bias variance and improve the performance of the models, ensemble methods of Bagging and Stacking were used. After comparing the results obtained by the three classifiers, Logistic Regression using Bagging with seven folds obtained the best performance, showing results above 90% in all evaluated metrics: accuracy, rate of true positives, and precision. Retention is the most common tendency.

Keywords: Evasion and retention, cross validation, bagging, stacking.

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Authors: Mohd Iskandar Illyas Tan, Raziah Noor Razali, Zuhra Junaida Husny

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is i) to investigate the driving factors and barriers of the adoption of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in Halal logistic and ii) to develop an ICT adoption framework for Halal logistic service provider. The Halal LSPs selected for the study currently used ICT service platforms, such as accounting and management system for Halal logistic business. The study categorizes the factors influencing the adoption decision and process by LSPs into four groups: technology related factors, organizational and environmental factors, Halal assurance related factors, and government related factors. The major contribution in this study is the discovery that technology related factors (ICT compatibility with Halal requirement) and Halal assurance related factors are the most crucial factors among the Halal LSPs applying ICT for Halal control in transportation-s operation. Among the government related factors, ICT requirement for monitoring Halal included in Halal Logistic Standard on Transportation (MS2400:2010) are the most influencing factors in the adoption of ICT with the support of the government. In addition, the government related factors are very important in the reducing the main barriers and the creation of the atmosphere of ICT adoption in Halal LSP sector.

Keywords: Information and communication technology (ICT), Halal logistic, Halal transportation, Technology adoption

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Johannes Nywlt, Julian Becker, Sebastian Bertsch

Abstract:

Due to high dynamics in current markets the expectations regarding logistics increase steadily. However, the complexity and variety of products and production make it difficult to understand the interdependencies between logistical objectives and their determining factors. Therefore specific models are needed to meet this challenge. The Logistic Operating Curves Theory is such a model. With its aid the basic correlations between the logistic objectives can be described. Within this model the capacity flexibility represents an important parameter. However, a proper mathematical description for this parameter is still missing. Within this paper such a description will be developed in order to make the Logistic Operating Curves Theory more accurate.

Keywords: Capacity flexibility, Production controlling, Production logistics, Production management.

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Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

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As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focusses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: Auto-ID, Construction Logistic, Fuzzy, Monitoring, RFID, Scheduling.

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Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

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The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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Authors: Chie Obayashi, Hidekazu Tanaka, Yoshiji Takagi

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In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.

Keywords: Berkson estimator, modified maximum likelihood estimator, Multi-parameter logistic regression model, second order admissibility.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

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The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: Poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, sample, Monte Carlo simulations.

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Authors: H. Ogras, M. Turk

Abstract:

In this study, a system of encryption based on chaotic sequences is described. The system is used for encrypting digital image data for the purpose of secure image transmission. An image secure communication scheme based on Logistic map chaotic sequences with a nonlinear function is proposed in this paper. Encryption and decryption keys are obtained by one-dimensional Logistic map that generates secret key for the input of the nonlinear function. Receiver can recover the information using the received signal and identical key sequences through the inverse system technique. The results of computer simulations indicate that the transmitted source image can be correctly and reliably recovered by using proposed scheme even under the noisy channel. The performance of the system will be discussed through evaluating the quality of recovered image with and without channel noise.

Keywords: Digital image, Image encryption, Secure communication

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Authors: Paria Soleimani, Arezoo Neshati

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the patient reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result of impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of a heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense, but most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then early detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to save them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system designing to assist physicians in early diagnosis of the acute heart attacks is obvious. The main purpose of this study would be to enable patients to become better informed about their condition and to encourage them to seek professional care at an earlier stage in the appropriate situations. For this purpose, the data were collected on 711 heart patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical factors can be reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic regression models were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict the risk of heart attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of performance had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. The variables, severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of breath, nausea and vomiting, were selected as the main features.

Keywords: Coronary heart disease, acute heart attacks, prediction, logistic regression.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Michael Grigutsch, Marco Kennemann, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Due to the recovering global economy, enterprises are increasingly focusing on logistics. Investing in logistic measures for a production generates a large potential for achieving a good starting point within a competitive field. Unlike during the global economic crisis, enterprises are now challenged with investing available capital to maximize profits. In order to be able to create an informed and quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need an adequate model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures in production. The Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the Institute for Production Systems (IFA) developed a Logistic Information System which provides support in making decisions and is designed specifically for the forging industry. The aim of a project that has been applied for is to now transfer this process in order to develop a universal approach to logistically and monetarily evaluate measures in production.

Keywords: Measures in Production, Logistic Operating Curves, Transfer Functions, Production Logistics

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Authors: T. Tambovceva, A. Tambovcevs

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The activities which are mostly related to the environmental performance need to be pointed, especially how logistics systems influence on environmental performance. This paper analyses how company could lead the initiative in this area by incorporating environmental management principles into their daily activities. The analysis is based on literature review about logistics and environment, the information from company R website as well as face-to-face interviews. A case study is given to show how they can turn practices into green while simultaneously meet the efficiency objectives. The research results show that the adoption of EMS and ISO 14001 certification is an effective tool for the logistics management. Such practices simultaneously reduce the negative contribute to better company performance. The results also show that the emissions to air and water, and energy consumption are the main logistics impacts to the environment.

Keywords: environmental management system, green logistics, information technology, information systems.

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Authors: Tshaudi Motsima

Abstract:

Class attendance is key at all levels of education. At tertiary level many students develop a tendency of not attending all classes without being aware of the repercussions of not attending all classes. It is important for all students to attend all classes as they can receive first-hand information and they can benefit more. The student who attends classes is likely to perform better academically than the student who does not. The aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between class attendance and academic performance of industrial engineering students. The data for this study were collected through the attendance register of students and the other data were accessed from the Integrated Tertiary Software and the Higher Education Data Analyzer Portal. Data analysis was conducted on a sample of 93 students. The results revealed that students with medium predicate scores (OR = 3.8; p = 0.027) and students with low predicate scores (OR = 21.4, p < 0.001) were significantly likely to attend less than 80% of the classes as compared to students with high predicate scores. Students with examination performance of less than 50% were likely to attend less than 80% of classes than students with examination performance of 50% and above, but the differences were not statistically significant (OR = 1.3; p = 0.750).

Keywords: Class attendance, examination performance, final outcome, logistic regression.

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Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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