Search results for: electricity market reform
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1291

Search results for: electricity market reform

1201 Downtrend Algorithm and Hedging Strategy in Futures Market

Authors: S. Masteika, A.V. Rutkauskas, A. Tamosaitis

Abstract:

The paper investigates downtrend algorithm and trading strategy based on chart pattern recognition and technical analysis in futures market. The proposed chart formation is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and one higher low on each side. The contribution of this paper lies in the reinforcement of statements about the profitability of momentum trend trading strategies. Practical benefit of the research is a trading algorithm in falling markets and back-test analysis in futures markets. When based on daily data, the algorithm has generated positive results, especially when the market had downtrend period. Downtrend algorithm can be applied as a hedge strategy against possible sudden market crashes. The proposed strategy can be interesting for futures traders, hedge funds or scientific researchers performing technical or algorithmic market analysis based on momentum trend trading.

Keywords: trading algorithm, chart pattern, downtrend trading, futures market, hedging

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1200 Groundwater Management–A Policy Perspective

Authors: M. Annie Jenifer, Carolin Arul

Abstract:

Groundwater has become the most dependable source of fresh water for agriculture, domestic and industrial uses in the past few decades. This wide use of groundwater if left uncontrolled and unseen will lead to overexploitation causing sea water intrusion in the coastal areas and illegal water marketing. Several Policies and Acts have been enacted to regulate and manage the use of this valuable resource. In spite of this the over extraction of groundwater beyond the recharging capacity of aquifers and depletion in the quality of groundwater is continuing. The current study aims at reviewing the Acts and Policies existing in the State of Tamil Nadu and in the National level regarding groundwater regulation and management. Further an analysis is made on the rights associated with the usage of groundwater resources and the gaps in these policies have been analyzed. Some suggestions are made to reform the existing groundwater policies for better management and regulation of the resource.

Keywords: Act, groundwater, policy, reform

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1199 Development of a Comprehensive Electricity Generation Simulation Model Using a Mixed Integer Programming Approach

Authors: Erik Delarue, David Bekaert, Ronnie Belmans, William D'haeseleer

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an electricity simulation model taking into account electrical network constraints, applied on the Belgian power system. The base of the model is optimizing an extensive Unit Commitment (UC) problem through the use of Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Electrical constraints are incorporated through the implementation of a DC load flow. The model encloses the Belgian power system in a 220 – 380 kV high voltage network (i.e., 93 power plants and 106 nodes). The model features the use of pumping storage facilities as well as the inclusion of spinning reserves in a single optimization process. Solution times of the model stay below reasonable values.

Keywords: Electricity generation modeling, Unit Commitment(UC), Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), DC load flow.

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1198 Modification of the Conventional Power Flow Analysis for the Deployment of an HVDC Grid System in the Indian Subcontinent

Authors: Farhan Beg

Abstract:

The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to the energy security in member countries, i.e. providing a reliable source of electricity to facilitate development across various sectors of the economy and thereby achieve the developmental targets it has set for itself. A highly precarious situation exists in the subcontinent which is observed in the series of system failures which most of the times leads to system collapses-blackouts. To mitigate the issues related with energy security as well as keep in check the increasing supply demand gap, a possible solution that stands in front of the subcontinent is the deployment of an interconnected electricity ‘Supergrid’ designed to carry huge quanta of power across the sub continent as well as provide the infra structure for RES integration. This paper assesses the need and conditions for a Supergrid deployment and consequently proposes a meshed topology based on VSC HVDC converters for the Supergrid modeling.

Keywords: Super grid, Wind and Solar Energy, HVDC, Electricity management, Load Flow Analysis.

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1197 Working Capital Management, Firms- Performance and Market Valuation in Nigeria

Authors: Sunday. E. Ogundipe, Abiola Idowu, Lawrencia. O. Ogundipe

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of working capital management on firms- performance and market value of the firms in Nigeria. A sample of fifty four non-financial quoted firms in Nigeria listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange was used for this study. Data were collected from annual reports of the sampled firms for the period 1995-2009. This result shows there is a significant negative relationship between cash conversion cycle and market valuation and firm-s performance. It also shows that debt ratio is positively related to market valuation and negatively related firm-s performance. The findings confirm that there is a significant relationship between Market valuation, profitability and working capital component in line with previous studies. This mean that Nigeria firms should ensure adequate management of working capital especially cash conversion cycle components of account receivables, account payables and inventories, as efficiency working capital management is expected to contribute positively to the firms- market value.

Keywords: Cash Conversion Cycle, Firms' Performance, Market Valuation, Working Capital Management

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1196 Multistage Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Malmquist Productivity Index Using Grey's System Theory to Evaluate Performance of Electric Power Supply Chain in Iran

Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh

Abstract:

Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, Charnes Cooper & Rhodes (CCR) Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain.

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1195 Effects of the Stock Market Dynamic Linkages on the Central and Eastern European Capital Markets

Authors: Ioan Popa, Cristiana Tudor, Radu Lupu

Abstract:

The interdependences among stock market indices were studied for a long while by academics in the entire world. The current financial crisis opened the door to a wide range of opinions concerning the understanding and measurement of the connections considered to provide the controversial phenomenon of market integration. Using data on the log-returns of 17 stock market indices that include most of the CEE markets, from 2005 until 2009, our paper studies the problem of these dependences using a new methodological tool that takes into account both the volatility clustering effect and the stochastic properties of these linkages through a Dynamic Conditional System of Simultaneous Equations. We find that the crisis is well captured by our model as it provides evidence for the high volatility – high dependence effect.

Keywords: Stock market interdependences, Dynamic System ofSimultaneous Equations, financial crisis

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1194 Immigration and Gender Equality – An Analysis of the Labor Market Characteristics of Turkish Migrants Living in Germany

Authors: C. Asarkaya, S. Z. Siretioglu Girgin

Abstract:

Turkish migrants constitute the largest group among people with migration background living in Germany. Turkish women’s labor market participation is of significant importance for their social and economic integration to the German society. This paper thus aims to investigate their labor market positions. Turkish migrant women participate less in the labor market compared to men, and are responsible for most of the housework, child care, and elderly care. This is due to their traditional roles in the family, educational level, insufficient knowledge of German language, and insufficient professional experience. We strongly recommend that wide-reaching integration policies for women are formulated, so as to encourage participation of not only migrant women but also their husbands, fathers and/or brothers, and natives.

Keywords: Empowerment, Germany, Labor Market, Migration, Turkish, Women.

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1193 Exploring Value of Time, Shopping Behavior and Shopping Motivation of International Tourists in the Chatuchak Weekend Market

Authors: Chanin Yoopetch, Natcha Toemtemsab

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to explore the demographic differences of international tourists according to three main factors, including the value of time, shopping behavior and shopping motivation. The Chatuchak Weekend Market is known as one of the biggest weekend markets in the world. Too little academic studies had been conducted in this area of weekend market, despite its growth and continuous development. In general, both domestic visitors and international tourists are attracted to the perception of cheap and bargaining prices the weekend market. However, systematic research study can provide reliable understanding of the perception of the visitors. This study focused on the group of international tourists who visited the market and aimed to provide better insights based on the differences in their demographic factors. Findings indicated that several differences in value of time, shopping behavior, and shopping motivation were identified by gender, income and age. Research implications and directions for further studies were discussed.

Keywords: Value of Time, Shopping Behavior, Shopping Motivation, Chatuchak Weekend Market.

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1192 Quantifying the UK’s Future Thermal Electricity Generation Water Use: Regional Analysis

Authors: Daniel Murrant, Andrew Quinn, Lee Chapman

Abstract:

A growing population has led to increasing global water and energy demand. This demand, combined with the effects of climate change and an increasing need to maintain and protect the natural environment, represents a potentially severe threat to many national infrastructure systems. This has resulted in a considerable quantity of published material on the interdependencies that exist between the supply of water and the thermal generation of electricity, often known as the water-energy nexus. Focusing specifically on the UK, there is a growing concern that the future availability of water may at times constrain thermal electricity generation, and therefore hinder the UK in meeting its increasing demand for a secure, and affordable supply of low carbon electricity. To provide further information on the threat the water-energy nexus may pose to the UK’s energy system, this paper models the regional water demand of UK thermal electricity generation in 2030 and 2050. It uses the strategically important Energy Systems Modelling Environment model developed by the Energy Technologies Institute. Unlike previous research, this paper was able to use abstraction and consumption factors specific to UK power stations. It finds that by 2050 the South East, Yorkshire and Humber, the West Midlands and North West regions are those with the greatest freshwater demand and therefore most likely to suffer from a lack of resource. However, it finds that by 2050 it is the East, South West and East Midlands regions with the greatest total water (fresh, estuarine and seawater) demand and the most likely to be constrained by environmental standards.

Keywords: Water-energy nexus, water resources, abstraction, climate change, power station cooling.

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1191 Choice Experiment Approach on Evaluation of Non-Market Farming System Outputs: First Results from Lithuanian Case Study

Authors: A. Novikova, L. Rocchi, G. Startiene

Abstract:

Market and non-market outputs are produced jointly in agriculture. Their supply depends on the intensity and type of production. The role of agriculture as an economic activity and its effects are important for the Lithuanian case study, as agricultural land covers more than a half of country. Positive and negative externalities, created in agriculture are not considered in the market. Therefore, specific techniques such as stated preferences methods, in particular choice experiments (CE) are used for evaluation of non-market outputs in agriculture. The main aim of this paper is to present construction of the research path for evaluation of non-market farming system outputs in Lithuania. The conventional and organic farming, covering crops (including both cereal and industrial crops) and livestock (including dairy and cattle) production has been selected. The CE method and nested logit (NL) model were selected as appropriate for evaluation of non-market outputs of different farming systems in Lithuania. A pilot survey was implemented between October–November 2018, in order to test and improve the CE questionnaire. The results of the survey showed that the questionnaire is accepted and well understood by the respondents. The econometric modelling showed that the selected NL model could be used for the main survey. The understanding of the differences between organic and conventional farming by residents was identified. It was revealed that they are more willing to choose organic farming in comparison to conventional farming.

Keywords: Choice experiments, farming system, Lithuania market outputs, non-market outputs.

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1190 Easy Shopping by Electronic Credit

Authors: M. Kargar, A. Isazadeh, F. Fartash, T. Saderi

Abstract:

In this paper we suggest a method for setting electronic credits for the customers. In this method banks and market-sites help each other to make doing large shopping through internet so easy. By developing this system, the people who have less money to buy most of the things they want, become able to buy all of them just through a credit. This credit is given by market-sites through a banking control on it. The method suggested can stop being imprisoned because of banking debts.

Keywords: E-Business, E-Credit, Market-site, Buy-site, Bank, E-Commerce.

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1189 The Evaluation of Electricity Generation and Consumption from Solar Generator: A Case Study at Rajabhat Suan Sunandha’s Learning Center in Samutsongkram

Authors: Chonmapat Torasa

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance of electricity generation and consumption from solar generator installed at Rajabhat Suan Sunandha’s learning center in Samutsongkram. The result from the experiment showed that solar cell began to work and distribute the current into the system when the solar energy intensity was 340 w/m2, starting from 8:00 am to 4:00 pm (duration of 8 hours). The highest intensity read during the experiment was 1,051.64w/m2. The solar power was 38.74kWh/day. The electromotive force from solar cell averagely was 93.6V. However, when connecting solar cell with the battery charge controller system, the voltage was dropped to 69.07V. After evaluating the power distribution ability and electricity load of tested solar cell, the result showed that it could generate power to 11 units of 36-watt fluorescent lamp bulbs, which was altogether 396W. In the meantime, the AC to DC power converter generated 3.55A to the load, and gave 781VA.

Keywords: Solar Cell, Solar-cell power generating system.

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1188 Information Transmission between Large and Small Stocks in the Korean Stock Market

Authors: Sang Hoon Kang, Seong-Min Yoon

Abstract:

Little attention has been paid to information transmission between the portfolios of large stocks and small stocks in the Korean stock market. This study investigates the return and volatility transmission mechanisms between large and small stocks in the Korea Exchange (KRX). This study also explores whether bad news in the large stock market leads to a volatility of the small stock market that is larger than the good news volatility of the large stock market. By employing the Granger causality test, we found unidirectional return transmissions from the large stocks to medium and small stocks. This evidence indicates that pat information about the large stocks has a better ability to predict the returns of the medium and small stocks in the Korean stock market. Moreover, by using the asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we observed the unidirectional relationship of asymmetric volatility transmission from large stocks to the medium and small stocks. This finding suggests that volatility in the medium and small stocks following a negative shock in the large stocks is larger than that following a positive shock in the large stocks.

Keywords: Asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, Asymmetric volatility transmission, Causality, Korean stock market, Spillover effect

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1187 Electoral Mathematics and Asymmetrical Treatment to Political Parties: The Mexican Case

Authors: Verónica Arredondo, Miguel Martínez-Panero, Teresa Peña, Victoriano Ramírez

Abstract:

The Mexican Chamber of Deputies is composed of 500 representatives: 300 of them elected by relative majority and another 200 ones elected through proportional representation in five electoral clusters (constituencies) with 40 representatives each. In this mixed-member electoral system, the seats distribution of proportional representation is not independent of the election by relative majority, as it attempts to correct representation imbalances produced in single-member districts. This two-fold structure has been maintained in the successive electoral reforms carried out along the last three decades (eight from 1986 to 2014). In all of them, the election process of 200 seats becomes complex: Formulas in the Law are difficult to understand and to be interpreted. This paper analyzes the Mexican electoral system after the electoral reform of 2014, which was applied for the first time in 2015. The research focuses on contradictions and issues of applicability, in particular situations where seats allocation is affected by ambiguity in the law and where asymmetrical treatment of political parties arises. Due to these facts, a proposal of electoral reform will be presented. It is intended to be simpler, clearer, and more enduring than the current system. Furthermore, this model is more suitable for producing electoral outcomes free of contradictions and paradoxes. This approach would allow a fair treatment of political parties and as a result an improved opportunity to exercise democracy.

Keywords: Apportionment paradoxes, biproportional representation, electoral mathematics, electoral reform, Mexican electoral system, proportional representation, political asymmetry.

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1186 Electricity Generation from Renewables and Targets: An Application of Multivariate Statistical Techniques

Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Tugrul Bayraktar

Abstract:

Renewable energy is referred to as "clean energy" and common popular support for the use of renewable energy (RE) is to provide electricity with zero carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides useful insight into the European Union (EU) RE, especially, into electricity generation obtained from renewables, and their targets. The objective of this study is to identify groups of European countries, using multivariate statistical analysis and selected indicators. The hierarchical clustering method is used to decide the number of clusters for EU countries. The conducted statistical hierarchical cluster analysis is based on the Ward’s clustering method and squared Euclidean distances. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified eight distinct clusters of European countries. Then, non-hierarchical clustering (k-means) method was applied. Discriminant analysis was used to determine the validity of the results with data normalized by Z score transformation. To explore the relationship between the selected indicators, correlation coefficients were computed. The results of the study reveal the current situation of RE in European Union Member States.

Keywords: Share of electricity generation, CO2 emission, targets, multivariate methods, hierarchical clustering, K-means clustering, discriminant analyzed, correlation, EU member countries.

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1185 Reducing the Imbalance Penalty through Artificial Intelligence Methods Geothermal Production Forecasting: A Case Study for Turkey

Authors: H. Anıl, G. Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations, since the geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning and time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Doğal Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was predicted for the first one-week and first two-weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: Machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting.

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1184 Arabic and Islamic Education in Nigeria: The Case of Al-Majiri Schools

Authors: Abdul Ganiy A. S. Oladosu

Abstract:

The AL-MAJIRI school system is a variant of private Arabic and Islamic schools which cater for the religious and moral development of Muslims. In the past, the system produced clerics, scholars, judges, religious reformers, eminent teachers and great men who are worthy of emulation, particularly in northern Nigeria. Gradually, the system lost its glory but continued to discharge its educational responsibilities to a certain extent. This paper takes a look at the activities of the AL-MAJIRI schools. The introduction provides background information about Nigeria where the schools operate. This is followed by an overview of the Nigerian educational system, the nature and the features of the AL-MAJIRI school system, its weaknesses and the current challenges facing the schools. The paper concludes with emphasis on the urgent need for a comprehensive reform of the curriculum content of the schools. The step by step procedure required for the reform is discussed.

Keywords: AL-MAJIRI, Arabic and Islamic schools, Nigeria.

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1183 Energy Communities from Municipality Level to Province Level: A Comparison Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

Abstract:

Considering the energy crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes increasingly necessary to change energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy, not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption, but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energy communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next 10 years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series.

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1182 Multifunctional Barcode Inventory System for Retailing. Are You Ready for It?

Authors: Ling Shi Cai, Leau Yu Beng, Charlie Albert Lasuin, Tan Soo Fun, Chin Pei Yee

Abstract:

This paper explains the development of Multifunctional Barcode Inventory Management System (MBIMS) to manage inventory and stock ordering. Today, most of the retailing market is still manually record their stocks and its effectiveness is quite low. By providing MBIMS, it will bring effectiveness to retailing market in inventory management. MBIMS will not only save time in recording input, output and refilling the inventory stock, but also in calculating remaining stock and provide auto-ordering function. This system is developed through System Development Life Cycle (SDLC) and the flow and structure of the system is fully built based on requirements of a retailing market. Furthermore, this system has been developed from methodical research and study where each part of the system is vigilantly designed. Thus, MBIMS will offer a good solution to the retailing market in achieving effectiveness and efficiency in inventory management.

Keywords: Inventory, Retailing Market, Barcode, Automated Alerting and Ordering

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1181 Generating Normally Distributed Clusters by Means of a Self-organizing Growing Neural Network– An Application to Market Segmentation –

Authors: Reinhold Decker, Christian Holsing, Sascha Lerke

Abstract:

This paper presents a new growing neural network for cluster analysis and market segmentation, which optimizes the size and structure of clusters by iteratively checking them for multivariate normality. We combine the recently published SGNN approach [8] with the basic principle underlying the Gaussian-means algorithm [13] and the Mardia test for multivariate normality [18, 19]. The new approach distinguishes from existing ones by its holistic design and its great autonomy regarding the clustering process as a whole. Its performance is demonstrated by means of synthetic 2D data and by real lifestyle survey data usable for market segmentation.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, clustering, multivariatenormality, market segmentation, self-organization

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1180 Sustainable Development in Iranian South Coastal and Islands Using Wind Energy

Authors: Amir Gandomkar

Abstract:

The development incompatible with environment cannot be sustainable. Using renewable energy sources such as solar energy, geothermal energy and wind energy can make sustainable development in a region. Iran has a lot of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. Since Iran has a special geographic position, it has lot of solar and wind energy resources. Both solar and wind energy are free, renewable and adaptable with environment. The study of 10 year wind data in Iranian South coastal and Islands synoptic stations shows that the production of wind power electricity and water pumping is possible in this region. In this research, we studied the local and temporal distribution of wind using three – hour statistics of windspeed in Iranian South coastal and Islands synoptic stations. This research shows that the production of wind power electricity is possible in this region all the year.

Keywords: Wind energy, wind regime, wind electricity, synoptic station.

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1179 Underpricing of IPOs during Hot and Cold Market Periods on the South African Stock Exchange (JSE)

Authors: Brownhilder N. Neneh, A. Van Aardt Smit

Abstract:

Underpricing is one anomaly in initial public offerings (IPO) literature that has been widely observed across different stock markets with different trends emerging over different time periods. This study seeks to determine how IPOs on the JSE performed on the first day, first week and first month over the period of 1996-2011. Underpricing trends are documented for both hot and cold market periods in terms of four main sectors (cyclical, defensive, growth stock and interest rate sensitive stocks). Using a sample of 360 listed companies on the JSE, the empirical findings established that IPOs on the JSE are significantly underpriced with an average market adjusted first day return of 62.9%. It is also established that hot market IPOs on the JSE are more underpriced than the cold market IPOs. Also observed is the fact that as the offer price per share increases above the median price for any given period, the level of underpricing decreases substantially. While significant differences exist in the level of underpricing of IPOs in the four different sectors in the hot and cold market periods, interest rates sensitive stocks showed a different trend from the other sectors and thus require further investigation to uncover this pattern.

Keywords: Underpricing, hot and cold markets, South Africa, JSE.

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1178 Market Acceptance of a Murabaha-Based Finance Structure within a Social Network of Non-Islamic Small and Medium Enterprise Owners in African Procurement

Authors: Craig M. Allen

Abstract:

Twenty two African entrepreneurs with Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in a single social network centered around a non-Muslim population in a smaller African country, selected an Islamic financing structure, a form of Murabaha, based solely on market rationale. These entrepreneurs had all won procurement contracts from major purchasers of goods within their country and faced difficulty arranging traditional bank financing to support their supply-chain needs. The Murabaha-based structure satisfied their market-driven demand and provided an attractive alternative to the traditional bank-offered lending products. The Murabaha-styled trade-financing structure was not promoted with any religious implications, but solely as a market solution to the existing problems associated with bank-related financing. This indicates the strong market forces that draw SMEs to financing structures that are traditionally considered within the framework of Islamic finance.

Keywords: Africa, entrepreneurs, Islamic finance, market acceptance, Murabaha, SMEs.

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1177 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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1176 A Study on Integrated Performance of Tap-Changing Transformer and SVC in Association with Power System Voltage Stability

Authors: Mahmood Reza Shakarami, Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Electricity market activities and a growing demand for electricity have led to heavily stressed power systems. This requires operation of the networks closer to their stability limits. Power system operation is affected by stability related problems, leading to unpredictable system behavior. Voltage stability refers to the ability of a power system to sustain appropriate voltage levels through large and small disturbances. Steady-state voltage stability is concerned with limits on the existence of steady-state operating points for the network. FACTS devices can be utilized to increase the transmission capacity, the stability margin and dynamic behavior or serve to ensure improved power quality. Their main capabilities are reactive power compensation, voltage control and power flow control. Among the FACTS controllers, Static Var Compensator (SVC) provides fast acting dynamic reactive compensation for voltage support during contingency events. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with appropriate representations of tap-changer transformers and SVC is investigated. Integrating both of these devices is the main topic of this paper. Effect of the presence of tap-changing transformers on static VAR compensator controller parameters and ratings necessary to stabilize load voltages at certain values are highlighted. The interrelation between transformer off nominal tap ratios and the SVC controller gains and droop slopes and the SVC rating are found. P-V curves are constructed to calculate loadability margins.

Keywords: SVC, voltage stability, P-V curve, reactive power, tap changing transformer.

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1175 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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1174 Market Segmentation and Conjoint Analysis for Apple Family Design

Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie, Nour Bata

Abstract:

A distributor of Apple products' experiences numerous difficulties in developing marketing strategies for new and existing mobile product entries that maximize customer satisfaction and the firm's profitability. This research, therefore, integrates market segmentation in platform-based product family design and conjoint analysis to identify iSystem combinations that increase customer satisfaction and business profits. First, the enhanced market segmentation grid is created. Then, the estimated demand model is formulated. Finally, the profit models are constructed then used to determine the ideal product family design that maximizes profit. Conjoint analysis is used to explore customer preferences with their satisfaction levels. A total of 200 surveys are collected about customer preferences. Then, simulation is used to determine the importance values for each attribute. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the product family design that maximizes both objectives. In conclusion, the results of this research shall provide great support to Apple distributors in determining the best marketing strategies that enhance their market share.

Keywords: Market segmentation, conjoint analysis, market strategies, optimization.

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1173 An Investigation into the Role of Market Beta in Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market

Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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1172 Solid Waste Management Challenges and Possible Solution in Kabul City

Authors: Ghulam Haider Haidaree, Nsenda Lukumwena

Abstract:

Most developing nations face energy production and supply problems. This is also the case of Afghanistan whose generating capacity does not meet its energy demand. This is due in part to high security and risk caused by war which deters foreign investments and insufficient internal revenue. To address the issue above, this paper would like to suggest an alternative and affordable way to deal with the energy problem. That is by converting Solid Waste to energy. As a result, this approach tackles the municipal solid waste issue (potential cause of several diseases), contributes to the improvement of the quality of life, local economy, and so on. While addressing the solid waste problem in general, this paper samples specifically one municipality which is District-12, one of the 22 districts of Kabul city. Using geographic information system (GIS) technology, District-12 is divided into nine different zones whose municipal solid waste is respectively collected, processed, and converted into electricity and distributed to the closest area. It is important to mention that GIS has been used to estimate the amount of electricity to be distributed and to optimally position the production plant.

Keywords: Energy problem, estimation of electricity, GIS zones, solid waste management system.

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