Search results for: distress debt

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Jindřiška Šedová

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In the past 20 years the economy of the Czech Republic has experienced substantial changes. In the 1990s the development was affected by the transformation which sought to establish the right conditions for privatization and creation of elementary market relations. In the last decade the characteristic elements such as private ownership and corresponding institutional framework have been strengthened. This development was marked by the accession of the Czech Republic to the EU. The Czech Republic is striving to reduce the difference between its level of economic development and the quality of institutional framework in comparison with other developed countries. The process of finding the adequate solutions has been hampered by the negative impact of the world financial crisis on the Czech Republic and the standard of living of its inhabitants. This contribution seeks to address the question of whether and to which extent the economic development of the transitive Czech economy is affected by the change in behaviour of households and their tendency to consumption, i.e. in the sense of reduction or increase in demand for goods and services. It aims to verify whether the increasing trend of household indebtedness and decreasing trend of saving pose a significant risk in the Czech Republic. At a general level the analysis aims to contribute to finding an answer to the question of whether the debt increase of Czech households is connected to the risk of "eating through" the borrowed money and whether Czech households risk falling into a debt trap. In addition to household indebtedness risks in the Czech Republic the analysis will focus on identification of specifics of the transformation phase of the Czech economy in comparison with the EU countries, or selected OECD countries.

Keywords: household indebtedness, household consumption, credits, financial literacy

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Authors: B. Parchem, M. Watanabe, D. Modrakovic, L. Mathew, A. Franklin, M. Cao, R. E. Broudy

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Objective: Executive functioning (EF) deficits underlie several mental health diagnoses including ADHD, anxiety, and depression. Community mental health clinics face extensive waitlists for services with many referrals involving EF deficits. A pilot trial of a four-week group therapy was developed using key components from Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT), Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT), and mindfulness with an aim to improve EF skills and offer low-fee services. Method: Eight adults (M = 34.5) waiting for services at a community clinic were enrolled in a four-week group therapy at an in-house training clinic for doctoral trainees. Baseline EF, pre-/post-intervention ADHD and distress symptoms, group satisfaction, and curriculum helpfulness were assessed. Results: Downward trends in ADHD and distress symptoms pre/post-intervention were not significant. Favorable responses on group satisfaction and helpfulness suggest clinical utility. Conclusion: Preliminary pilot data from a brief group therapy to improve EF may be an efficacious, acceptable, and feasible intervention for adults waiting for services at community mental health and training clinics where there are high demands and limits to services and staffs.

Keywords: Executive functioning, cognitive-behavioral therapy, dialectical behavior therapy, mindfulness, adult group therapy.

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Authors: Birgül Şakar

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This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.

Keywords: Economics, marketing crisis, financial reforms, political economy

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Authors: Priya Bhakat

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A son in every Hindu society pays his own father the debt and he owes him for his own life whereas a girl child is treated as a burden mainly in case of first child. Even today in India we have many societies which does not welcome girl child. Although there is an increase in overall sex ratio, there is a continuous decline in child sex ratio. This paper focuses on issues of sex selective abortion in Rajasthan based on secondary data. It is found that 90.0 percentages of women in Rajasthan wants at least one son. Around 34.3 percentages of women wants more sons than daughters and only 1.5 percentages of women wants more daughters than sons. It is very common among the rich and educated people.

Keywords: Rajasthan, Family Planning Program (FPP), Sex Selective Abortion (SSA), Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB).

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Authors: B. R. Phanikumar, Sana Suri

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Expansive soils swell when they absorb water and shrink when water evaporates from them. Hence, lightly loaded civil engineering structures founded in these soils are subjected to severe distress. Therefore, there is a need to ameliorate or improve these swelling soils through some innovative methods. This paper discusses chemical stabilisation of expansive soils, a technique in which chemical reagents such as lime and calcium chloride are added to expansive soils to reduce the volumetric changes occurring in expansive soils and to improve their engineering behaviour.

Keywords: Expansive soils, swelling, shrinkage, amelioration, lime, calcium chloride.

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Authors: Azhar E. Serikkaliyeva, Nurzhamal A. Aldabek

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The purpose of this article is to analyze economic and political tendencies of development of integration processes with different developing level and speed on the Eurasian space, by considering two organizations at the region – Eurasian Economic Community and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, by considering the interests of participations in organizations of Russia and China as a global powers and Kazakhstan as a leader among the Central Asian countries. This article investigates what certain goals Eurasian countries (especially Russia, Kazakhstan and China) are waiting from integration within the SCO and the EurAsEC, linking the process with the theories of regional integration. After European debt crisis it is more topically to research the integration within the specific region's conditions.

Keywords: Eurasian Economic Community, China, Kazakhstan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Regional integration, Russia.

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Authors: K. Vallianou, T. Alexopoulos, V. Plaka, M. K. Seleventi, V. Skanavis, C. Skanavis

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The present research addresses the role of place attachment and emotions in community resiliency and recovery within the context of a disaster. Natural disasters represent a disruption in the normal functioning of a community, leading to a general feeling of disorientation. This study draws on the trauma caused by a natural hazard such as a forest fire. The changes of the sense of togetherness are being assessed. Finally this research determines how the place attachment of the inhabitants was affected during the reorientation process of the community. The case study area is Mati, a small coastal town in eastern Attica, Greece. The fire broke out on July 23^rd, 2018. A quantitative research was conducted through questionnaires via phone interviews, one year after the disaster, to address community resiliency in the long-run. The sample was composed of 159 participants from the rural community of Mati plus 120 coming from Skyros Island that was used as a control group. Inhabitants were prompted to answer items gauging their emotions related to the event, group identification and emotional significance of their community, and place attachment before and a year after the fire took place. Importantly, the community recovery and reorientation were examined within the context of a relative absence of government backing and official support. Emotions related to the event were aggregated into 4 clusters related to: activation/vigilance, distress/disorientation, indignation, and helplessness. The findings revealed a decrease in the level of place attachment in the impacted area of Mati as compared to the control group of Skyros Island. Importantly, initial distress caused by the fire prompted the residents to identify more with their community and to report more positive feelings toward their community. Moreover, a mediation analysis indicated that the positive effect of community cohesion on place attachment one year after the disaster was mediated by the positive feelings toward the community. Finally, place attachment contributes to enhanced optimism and a more positive perspective concerning Mati’s future prospects. Despite an insufficient state support to this affected area, the findings suggest an important role of emotions and place attachment during the process of recovery. Implications concerning the role of emotions and social dynamics in meshing place attachment during the disaster recovery process as well as community resiliency are discussed.

Keywords: Community resilience, natural disasters, place attachment, wildfire.

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Authors: Alhaji M. H Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V Gborie

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The crop rice is the staple food of most Sierra Leone with no close substitute. However, its cultivation has been on its last legs over the years. The decline in the domestic rice cultivation has had vicious socio-economic implications such as hiking consumer prices, balance of payment dilemmas with debt burden. The objective of this study is thus, to assess the effect of the shift of rural labour towards non-agricultural sectors on rice cultivation. The tools utilized for analyzing the problem under consideration involved a thorough descriptive statistics and generalized linear model using OLS technique. Increased rural population was established positive and significant in affecting rice cultivation. Fertilizer utilization was insignificant in rice cultivation. For reducing the shift of rural labor force towards nonagricultural sectors, the government should make the agricultural sector very lucrative.

Keywords: Regression Model, Rice Cultivation, Rural Migration, Sierra Leone.

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey

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In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.

Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management

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Authors: Maria S. Trimintziou, Michael G. Sakellariou, Prodromos N. Psarropoulos

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The current study focuses on the seismic design of offshore pipelines against active faults. After an extensive literature review of the provisions of the seismic norms worldwide and of the available analytical methods, the study simulates numerically (through finite-element modeling and strain-based criteria) the distress of offshore pipelines subjected to PGDs induced by active normal and reverse seismic faults at the seabed. Factors, such as the geometrical properties of the fault, the mechanical properties of the ruptured soil formations, and the pipeline characteristics, are examined. After some interesting conclusions regarding the seismic vulnerability of offshore pipelines, potential cost-effective mitigation measures are proposed taking into account constructability issues.

Keywords: Active faults, Seismic design, offshore pipelines.

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Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

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One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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Authors: Drago Jakovcevic, Mihovil Andelinovic, Igor Husak

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The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, a small open economy, are determined by high euroization of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also, thorough analysis of distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return, in order to influence the GDP growth.

Keywords: Global crisis, Selective credit policy, Small open economy.

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Authors: Chiung-ying Lee, Chia-hua Chang

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In July 1, 2007, Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) on market observation post system (MOPS) adds a new "Financial reference database" for investors to do investment reference. This database as a warning to public offering companies listed on the public financial information and it original within eight targets. In this paper, this database provided by the indicators for the application of company financial crisis early warning model verify that the database provided by the indicator forecast for the financial crisis, whether or not companies have a high accuracy rate as opposed to domestic and foreign scholars have positive results. There is use of Logistic Regression Model application of the financial early warning model, in which no joined back-conditions is the first model, joined it in is the second model, has been taken occurred in the financial crisis of companies to research samples and then business took place before the financial crisis point with T-1 and T-2 sample data to do positive analysis. The results show that this database provided the debt ratio and net per share for the best forecast variables.

Keywords: Financial reference database, Financial early warning model, Logistic Regression.

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Authors: Yothin Sawangdee, Piyawat Katewongsa, Chutima Yousomboon, Kornkanok Pongpradit, Sakapas Saengchai, Phusit Khantikul

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Debts reconstruction under some of moratorium projects is one of important method that highly benefits to both the Banks and farmers. The method can reduce probabilities for nonprofits loan. This paper discuss about debts reconstruction and career development training for farmers in Thailand between 2011 and 2013. The research designed is mix-method between quantitative survey and qualitative survey. Sample size for quantitative method is 1003 cases. Data gathering procedure is between October and December 2013. Main results affirmed that debts reconstruction is needed. And there are numerous benefits from farmers’ career development training. Many of farmers who attend field school activities able to bring knowledge learned to apply for the farms’ work. They can reduce production costs. Framers’ quality of life and their household well-being also improve. This program should apply in any countries where farmers have highly debts and highly risks for not return the debts.

Keywords: Career development, debts reconstruction, farmers household well-being, Thailand.

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Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

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The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: Creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures.

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Authors: Jamie L. Stangel

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Increased popularity and visibility of college athletics has contributed to an environment in which institutions—most of which lack self-sufficient athletics department budgets—reallocate monies from the university general fund and seek additional funding sources to keep up with increasing levels of spending on athletics. Given the prevalence of debates on student debt levels, coach salaries, and athlete pay, empirical evidence on whether this spending yields expected return on investment is necessary. This study considered the relationship between the independent variable of winning percentage of the men’s basketball team at a mid-major university, moderated by National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) tournament appearance, and number of applicants, number of enrollments, average SAT score of students, and donor giving to the university general and athletic funds. The results indicate that, other than a small correlation between athletic success and number of applicants, only when NCAA tournament appearance is used as a moderating variable, these purported benefits are not supported, suggesting the need for a reevaluation of athletic department spending and perceptions on tangible and intangible benefits for universities.

Keywords: Athletic success, enrollment, NCAA, private giving.

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Authors: Sunday. E. Ogundipe, Abiola Idowu, Lawrencia. O. Ogundipe

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This study examines the impact of working capital management on firms- performance and market value of the firms in Nigeria. A sample of fifty four non-financial quoted firms in Nigeria listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange was used for this study. Data were collected from annual reports of the sampled firms for the period 1995-2009. This result shows there is a significant negative relationship between cash conversion cycle and market valuation and firm-s performance. It also shows that debt ratio is positively related to market valuation and negatively related firm-s performance. The findings confirm that there is a significant relationship between Market valuation, profitability and working capital component in line with previous studies. This mean that Nigeria firms should ensure adequate management of working capital especially cash conversion cycle components of account receivables, account payables and inventories, as efficiency working capital management is expected to contribute positively to the firms- market value.

Keywords: Cash Conversion Cycle, Firms' Performance, Market Valuation, Working Capital Management

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang, Yuan-Hong Ho

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This study utilizes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Rules Dataset focusing on four specific fiscal rules such as expenditure rule, revenue rule, budget balance rule, and debt rule and five main characteristics of each fiscal rule those are monitoring, enforcement, coverage, legal basis, and escape clause to construct the Fiscal Rule Index for nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 1996 to 2015. After constructing the fiscal rule index for each country, we utilize the Panel Generalized Method of Moments (Panel GMM) by using the constructed fiscal rule index to examine the effectiveness of fiscal rules in reducing procyclicality. Empirical results show that national fiscal rules have a significantly negative impact on procyclicality of government expenditure. Additionally, stricter fiscal rules combined with high government effectiveness are effective in reducing procyclicality of government expenditure. Results of this study indicate that for nine Asia-Pacific countries, policymakers’ use of fiscal rules and government effectiveness to reducing procyclicality of fiscal policy are effective.

Keywords: Counter-cyclical policy, fiscal rules, government effectiveness, procyclical policy.

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: GDP growth, early warning system, advanced economies, developing countries.

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Authors: Jin-Tsann Yeh, Chyong-Ling Lin

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Healthcare providers sometimes use the power of humor as a treatment and therapy for buffering mental health or easing mental disorders because humor can provide relief from distress and conflict. Humor is also very suitable for advertising because of similar benefits. This study carefully examines humor's widespread use in advertising and identifies relationships among humor mechanisms, female depictions, and product types. The purpose is to conceptualize how humor theories can be used not only to successfully define a product as fitting within one of four color categories of the product color matrix, but also to identify compelling contemporary female depictions through humor in ads. The results can offer an idealization for marketing managers and consumers to help them understand how female role depictions can be effectively used with humor in ads. The four propositions developed herein are derived from related literature, through the identification of marketing strategy formulations that achieve product memory enhancement by adopting humor mechanisms properly matched with female role depictions.

Keywords: Humor mechanisms, Female role depiction, Product types.

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Authors: F. Arıkan, Z. Karakus

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Cancer is a widespread disease in the world and is the third reason of deaths among the chronic diseases. Educating patients and caregivers has a vital role for empowering them in managing disease and treatment's symptoms. Informing of the patients about their disease and treatment process decreases patient's distress and decisional conflicts, improves wellbeing of them, increase success of the treatment and survival. In this era, technological education methods are used for patients that have different chronic disease. Many studies indicated that especially web based patient education such as chronic obstructive lung disease; heart failure is more effective than printed materials. Web based education provide easiness to patients while they are reaching health services. It also has more advantages because of it decreases health cost and requirement of staff. It is thought that web based education may be beneficial method for cancer patient's empowerment in coping with the disease's symptoms. The aim of the study is evaluate the effectiveness of web based education for cancer patients' clinical outcomes.

Keywords: Cancer Patients, E-Learning, Nursing, Web Based Education.

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Authors: Ana Mouro, Ana Ramalheira

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Since 1989, with the Fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany has undergone a profound restructuring political and economic process. When the Euro Crisis broke out, Germany was no longer the “sick man” of Europe. Instead, it had recovered its dominance as the strongest and wealthiest economy within the European Union. With the European Debt Crisis, that has been taking place in the European Union since the end of 2009, Germany´s Chancellor Angela Merkel has gained the power of deciding, so to say, on the fate of the debtor nations, but she neither stands for binding German commitments, nor refuses assistance. A debate on whether Merkel’s hesitation has been deliberated and used as a means of coercion has arisen on international print media, and the Portuguese Press has been no exception. This study, which was conducted by using news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the Portuguese weekly Expresso and the daily Público, from 2008 to 2015, tries to show how Merkel’s hesitation, depicted in the press by the term “Merkiavelli”, was perceived in Portugal, a country that had to embrace the austerity measures, imposed by the European Central Bank, but defined under Angela Merkel´s leading role.

Keywords: Euro crisis, “Merkiavelli”, cultural studies, Portuguese quality press.

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Authors: Meor O. Hamzah, Teoh C. Yi

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As the resources for naturally occurring aggregates diminished at an ever increasing rate, researchers are keen to utilize recycled materials in road construction in harmony with sustainable development. Steel slag, a waste product from the steel making industry, is one of the recycled materials reported to exhibit great potential to replace naturally occurring aggregates in asphalt mixtures. This paper presents the resilient modulus properties of steel slag asphalt mixtures subjected to short term oven ageing (STOA). The resilient modulus test was carried out to evaluate the stiffness of asphalt mixtures at 10ºC, 25ºC and 40ºC. Previous studies showed that stiffness changes in asphalt mixture played an important role in inflicting pavement distress particularly cracking and rutting that are common at low and high temperatures respectively. Temperature was found to significantly influence the resilient modulus of asphalt mixes. The resilient modulus of the asphalt specimens tested decreased by more than 90% when the test temperature increased from 10°C to 40°C.

Keywords: Granite, Resilient Modulus, Steel Slag, Temperature.

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Authors: Sunday E. Ogundipe, Rafiu O. Salawu, Lawrencia O. Ogundipe

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The study examines the determinants of corporate cash holding of non-financial quoted firms in Nigeria using a sample of fifty four non-financial quoted firms listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange for the period 1995-2009. Data were sourced from the Annual reports of the sampled firms and analyzed using Generalized Method of Moments(GMM). The study finds evidence supportive of a target adjustment model and that firms can not instantaneously adjust towards the target cash level owing to the fact that adjustment cost being costly,. Also, the result shows significant negative relationship between cash holdings and firm size, net working capital, return on asset and bank relationship and positive relationship with growth opportunities, leverage, inventories, account receivables and financial distress. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship between cash holdings and cash flow. In Nigerian setting, most of the variables that are relevant for explaining cash holdings in the Developed countries are found by this study to be relevant also in Nigeria.

Keywords: Adjustment Model , Cash holding, Determinant, Generalized Method of Moments(GMM)

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Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad

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The research studies the behaviors based on sufficiency economy philosophy at individual and community levelsas well as the satisfaction of the urban community leaders by collecting data with purposive sampling technique. For in-depth interviews with 26 urban community leaders, the result shows that the urban community leaders have good knowledge and understanding about sufficiency economy philosophy. Especially in terms of money spending, they must consider the need for living and be economical. The activities in the community or society should not take advantage of the others as well as colleagues. At present, most of the urban community leaders live in sufficient way. They often spend time with public service, but many families are dealing with debt. Many communities have some political conflict and high family allowances because of living in the urban communities with rapid social and economic changes. However, there are many communities that leaders have applied their wisdom in development for their people by gathering and grouping the professionals to form activities such as making chilli sauce, textile organization, making artificial flowers to worship the sanctity. The most prominent group is the foot massage business in Wat Pracha Rabue Tham. This professional group is supported continuously by the government. One of the factors in terms of satisfaction used for evaluating community leaders is the customary administration in brotherly, interdependent way rather than using the absolute power or controlling power, but using the roles of leader to perform the activities with their people intently, determinedly and having public mind for people.

Keywords: Performance and Activities, Sufficiency Economy, Urban Communities Leader.

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Authors: David Calderón Villegas, Thomas Kalitzky

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Run-of-river (RoR) hydropower projects represent a viable, clean, and cost-effective alternative to dam-based plants and provide decentralized power production. However, RoR schemes’ cost-effectiveness depends on the proper selection of site and design flow, which is a challenging task because it requires multivariate analysis. In this respect, this study presents the development of an investment decision support tool for assessing the optimal size of an RoR scheme considering the technical, environmental, and cost constraints. The net present value (NPV) from a project perspective is used as an objective function for supporting the investment decision. The tool has been tested by applying it to an actual RoR project recently proposed in Colombia. The obtained results show that the optimum point in financial terms does not match the flow that maximizes energy generation from exploiting the river's available flow. For the case study, the flow that maximizes energy corresponds to a value of 5.1 m3/s. In comparison, an amount of 2.1 m3/s maximizes the investors NPV. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the NPV as a function of the debt rate changes and the electricity prices and the CapEx. Even for the worst-case scenario, the optimal size represents a positive business case with an NPV of 2.2 USD million and an internal rate of return (IRR) 1.5 times higher than the discount rate. 

Keywords: small hydropower, renewable energy, RoR schemes, optimal sizing, financial analysis

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

Abstract:

This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.

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Authors: Abdulwahab Kammon, Tan Sheau Wei, Abdul Rahman Omar, Abdunaser Dayhum, Ibrahim Eldghayes, Monier Sharif

Abstract:

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a very dynamic and evolving virus, causing major economic losses to the global poultry industry. Recently, the Libyan poultry industry faced severe outbreak of respiratory distress associated with high mortality and dramatic drop in egg production. Tracheal and cloacal swabs were analyzed for several poultry viruses. IBV was detected using SYBR Green I real-time PCR detection based on the nucleocapsid (N) gene. Sequence analysis of the partial N gene indicated high similarity (~ 94%) to IBV strain 3382/06 that was isolated from Taiwan. Even though the IBV strain 3382/06 is more similar to that of the Mass type H120, the isolate has been implicated associated with intertypic recombinant of 3 putative parental IBV strains namely H120, Taiwan strain 1171/92 and China strain CK/CH/LDL/97I. Complete sequencing and antigenicity studies of the Libya IBV strains are currently underway to determine the evolution of the virus and its importance in vaccine induced immunity. In this paper we documented for the first time the presence of possibly variant IBV strain from Libya which required dramatic change in vaccination program.

Keywords: Libya, Infectious bronchitis, Molecular characterization.

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