Search results for: decisions tree
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 787

Search results for: decisions tree

367 Reconfigurable Autonomous Mini Robot Design using CPLD's

Authors: Aditya K, Dinesh P, Ramesh Bhakthavatchalu

Abstract:

This paper explains a project based learning method where autonomous mini-robots are developed for research, education and entertainment purposes. In case of remote systems wireless sensors are developed in critical areas, which would collect data at specific time intervals, send the data to the central wireless node based on certain preferred information would make decisions to turn on or off a switch or control unit. Such information transfers hardly sums up to a few bytes and hence low data rates would suffice for such implementations. As a robot is a multidisciplinary platform, the interfacing issues involved are discussed in this paper. The paper is mainly focused on power supply, grounding and decoupling issues.

Keywords: CPLD, power supply, decoupling, grounding.

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366 Variable Rate Superorthogonal Turbo Code with the OVSF Code Tree

Authors: Insah Bhurtah, P. Clarel Catherine, K. M. Sunjiv Soyjaudah

Abstract:

When using modern Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) in mobile communications, the user must be able to vary the transmission rate of users to allocate bandwidth efficiently. In this work, Orthogonal Variable Spreading Factor (OVSF) codes are used with the same principles applied in a low-rate superorthogonal turbo code due to their variable-length properties. The introduced system is the Variable Rate Superorthogonal Turbo Code (VRSTC) where puncturing is not performed on the encoder’s final output but rather before selecting the output to achieve higher rates. Due to bandwidth expansion, the codes outperform an ordinary turbo code in the AWGN channel. Simulations results show decreased performance compared to those obtained with the employment of Walsh-Hadamard codes. However, with OVSF codes, the VRSTC system keeps the orthogonality of codewords whilst producing variable rate codes contrary to Walsh-Hadamard codes where puncturing is usually performed on the final output.

Keywords: CDMA, MAP Decoding, OVSF, Superorthogonal Turbo Code.

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365 An Analysis of Activity-Based Costing in a Manufacturing System

Authors: Derya Eren Akyol, Gonca Tuncel, G. Mirac Bayhan

Abstract:

Activity-Based Costing (ABC) represents an alternative paradigm to traditional cost accounting system and it often provides more accurate cost information for decision making such as product pricing, product mix, and make-orbuy decisions. ABC models the causal relationships between products and the resources used in their production and traces the cost of products according to the activities through the use of appropriate cost drivers. In this paper, the implementation of the ABC in a manufacturing system is analyzed and a comparison with the traditional cost based system in terms of the effects on the product costs are carried out to highlight the difference between two costing methodologies. By using this methodology, a valuable insight into the factors that cause the cost is provided, helping to better manage the activities of the company.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, manufacturing systems, product costs, traditional costing.

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364 Proposal of a Model Supporting Decision-Making on Information Security Risk Treatment

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.

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363 Simultaneous Segmentation and Recognition of Arabic Characters in an Unconstrained On-Line Cursive Handwritten Document

Authors: Randa I. Elanwar, Mohsen A. Rashwan, Samia A. Mashali

Abstract:

The last two decades witnessed some advances in the development of an Arabic character recognition (CR) system. Arabic CR faces technical problems not encountered in any other language that make Arabic CR systems achieve relatively low accuracy and retards establishing them as market products. We propose the basic stages towards a system that attacks the problem of recognizing online Arabic cursive handwriting. Rule-based methods are used to perform simultaneous segmentation and recognition of word portions in an unconstrained cursively handwritten document using dynamic programming. The output of these stages is in the form of a ranked list of the possible decisions. A new technique for text line separation is also used.

Keywords: Arabic handwriting, character recognition, cursive handwriting, on-line recognition.

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362 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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361 Direct Democracy and Social Contract in Ancient Athens

Authors: Nicholas Kyriazis, Emmanouil Marios L. Economou, Jr, Loukas Zachilas

Abstract:

In the present essay, a model of choice by actors is analysedby utilizing the theory of chaos to explain how change comes about. Then, by using ancient and modern sources of literature, the theory of the social contract is analysed as a historical phenomenon that first appeared during the period of Classical Greece. Then, based on the findings of this analysis, the practice of direct democracy and public choice in ancient Athens is analysed, through two historical cases: Eubulus and Lycurgus political program in the second half of the 4th century. The main finding of this research is that these policies can be interpreted as an implementation of a social contract, through which citizens were taking decisions based on rational choice according to economic considerations.

Keywords: Chaos theory, public choice, social contract, 4th century BC. Athens.

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360 Classification of Political Affiliations by Reduced Number of Features

Authors: Vesile Evrim, Aliyu Awwal

Abstract:

By the evolvement in technology, the way of expressing opinions switched direction to the digital world. The domain of politics, as one of the hottest topics of opinion mining research, merged together with the behavior analysis for affiliation determination in texts, which constitutes the subject of this paper. This study aims to classify the text in news/blogs either as Republican or Democrat with the minimum number of features. As an initial set, 68 features which 64 were constituted by Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) features were tested against 14 benchmark classification algorithms. In the later experiments, the dimensions of the feature vector reduced based on the 7 feature selection algorithms. The results show that the “Decision Tree”, “Rule Induction” and “M5 Rule” classifiers when used with “SVM” and “IGR” feature selection algorithms performed the best up to 82.5% accuracy on a given dataset. Further tests on a single feature and the linguistic based feature sets showed the similar results. The feature “Function”, as an aggregate feature of the linguistic category, was found as the most differentiating feature among the 68 features with the accuracy of 81% in classifying articles either as Republican or Democrat.

Keywords: Politics, machine learning, feature selection, LIWC.

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359 Impact Assessment of Air Pollution Stress on Plant Species through Biochemical Estimations

Authors: Govindaraju.M, Ganeshkumar.R.S, Suganthi.P, Muthukumaran.V.R, Visvanathan.P

Abstract:

The present study was conducted to investigate the response of plants exposed to lignite-based thermal power plant emission. For this purpose, five plant species were collected from 1.0 km distance (polluted site) and control plants were collected from 20.0 km distance (control site) to thermal power plant. The common tree species Cassia siamea Lamk., Polyalthia longifolia. Sonn, Acacia longifolia (Andrews) Wild., Azadirachta indica A.Juss, Ficus religiosa L. were selected as test plants. Photosynthetic pigments changes (chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b and carotenoids) and rubisco enzyme modifications were studied. Reduction was observed in the photosynthetic pigments of plants growing in polluted site and also large sub unit of the rubisco enzyme was degraded in Azadirachta indica A. Juss collected from polluted site.

Keywords: Air pollution, Lignite-based thermal power plant, Photosynthetic pigments, Rubisco enzyme.

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358 Antibacterial and Antifungal Activity of Essential Oil of Eucalyptus camendulensis on a Few Bacteria and Fungi

Authors: M. Mehani, N. Salhi, T. Valeria, S. Ladjel

Abstract:

Red River Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) is a tree of the genus Eucalyptus widely distributed in Algeria and in the world. The value of its aromatic secondary metabolites offers new perspectives in the pharmaceutical industry. This strategy can contribute to the sustainable development of our country. Preliminary tests performed on the essential oil of Eucalyptus camendulensis showed that this oil has antibacterial activity vis-à-vis the bacterial strains (Enterococcus feacalis, Enterobacter cloaceai, Proteus microsilis, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumonia, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) and antifungic (Fusarium sporotrichioide and Fusarium graminearum). The culture medium used was nutrient broth Muller Hinton. The interaction between the bacteria and the essential oil is expressed by a zone of inhibition with diameters of MIC indirectly expression of. And we used the PDA medium to determine the fungal activity. The extraction of the aromatic fraction (essentially oilhydrolat) of the fresh aerian part of the Eucalyptus camendulensis was performed by hydrodistillation. The average essential oil yield is 0.99%. The antimicrobial and fungal study of the essential oil and hydrosol showed a high inhibitory effect on the growth of pathogens.

Keywords: Essential oil, Eucalyptus camendulensis, bacteria and Fungi.

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357 A Survey of Discrete Facility Location Problems

Authors: Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu

Abstract:

Facility location is a complex real-world problem which needs a strategic management decision. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and developments in Facility Location Problems which are classical optimization problems having a wide-spread applications in various areas such as transportation, distribution, production, supply chain decisions and telecommunication. Our goal is not to review all variants of different studies in FLPs or to describe very detailed computational techniques and solution approaches, but rather to provide a broad overview of major location problems that have been studied, indicating how they are formulated and what are proposed by researchers to tackle the problem. A brief, elucidative table based on a grouping according to “General Problem Type” and “Methods Proposed” used in the studies is also presented at the end of the work.

Keywords: Discrete location problems, exact methods, heuristic algorithms, single source capacitated facility location problems.

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356 Decision Trees for Predicting Risk of Mortality using Routinely Collected Data

Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

Abstract:

It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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355 Search for Flavour Changing Neutral Current Couplings of Higgs-up Sector Quarks at Future Circular Collider (FCC-eh)

Authors: I. Turk Cakir, B. Hacisahinoglu, S. Kartal, A. Yilmaz, A. Yilmaz, Z. Uysal, O. Cakir

Abstract:

In the search for new physics beyond the Standard Model, Flavour Changing Neutral Current (FCNC) is a good research field in terms of the observability at future colliders. Increased Higgs production with higher energy and luminosity in colliders is essential for verification or falsification of our knowledge of physics and predictions, and the search for new physics. Prospective electron-proton collider constituent of the Future Circular Collider project is FCC-eh. It offers great sensitivity due to its high luminosity and low interference. In this work, thq FCNC interaction vertex with off-shell top quark decay at electron-proton colliders is studied. By using MadGraph5_aMC@NLO multi-purpose event generator, observability of tuh and tch couplings are obtained with equal coupling scenario. Upper limit on branching ratio of tree level top quark FCNC decay is determined as 0.012% at FCC-eh with 1 ab ^−1 luminosity.

Keywords: FCC, FCNC, Higgs Boson, Top Quark.

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354 Analysis of Genetic Variations in Camel Breeds (Camelus dromedarius)

Authors: Yasser M. Saad, Amr A. El Hanafy, Saleh A. Alkarim, Hussein A. Almehdar, Elrashdy M. Redwan

Abstract:

Camels are substantial providers of transport, milk, sport, meat, shelter, security and capital in many countries, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Inter simple sequence repeat technique was used to detect the genetic variations among some camel breeds (Majaheim, Safra, Wadah, and Hamara). Actual number of alleles, effective number of alleles, gene diversity, Shannon’s information index and polymorphic bands were calculated for each evaluated camel breed. Neighbor-joining tree that re-constructed for evaluated these camel breeds showed that, Hamara breed is distantly related from the other evaluated camels. In addition, the polymorphic sites, haplotypes and nucleotide diversity were identified for some camelidae cox1 gene sequences (obtained from NCBI). The distance value between C. bactrianus and C. dromedarius (0.072) was relatively low. Analysis of genetic diversity is an important way for conserving Camelus dromedarius genetic resources.

Keywords: Camel, genetics, ISSR, cox1, neighbor-joining.

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353 Application of Multi-objective Optimization Packages in Design of an Evaporator Coil

Authors: A.Mosavi

Abstract:

A novel methodology has been used to design an evaporator coil of a refrigerant. The methodology used is through a complete Computer Aided Design /Computer Aided Engineering approach, by means of a Computational Fluid Dynamic/Finite Element Analysis model which is executed many times for the thermal-fluid exploration of several designs' configuration by an commercial optimizer. Hence the design is carried out automatically by parallel computations, with an optimization package taking the decisions rather than the design engineer. The engineer instead takes decision regarding the physical settings and initializing of the computational models to employ, the number and the extension of the geometrical parameters of the coil fins and the optimization tools to be employed. The final design of the coil geometry found to be better than the initial design.

Keywords: Multi-objective shape optimization, Heat Transfer, multi-physics structures, modeFRONTIER

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352 A Cooperative Weighted Discriminator Energy Detector Technique in Fading Environment

Authors: Muhammad R. Alrabeiah, Ibrahim S. Alnomay

Abstract:

The need in cognitive radio system for a simple, fast, and independent technique to sense the spectrum occupancy has led to the energy detection approach. Energy detector is known by its dependency on noise variation in the system which is one of its major drawbacks. In this paper, we are aiming to improve its performance by utilizing a weighted collaborative spectrum sensing, it is similar to the collaborative spectrum sensing methods introduced previously in the literature. These weighting methods give more improvement for collaborative spectrum sensing as compared to no weighting case. There is two method proposed in this paper: the first one depends on the channel status between each sensor and the primary user while the second depends on the value of the energy measured in each sensor.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, Spectrum sensing, Collaborative sensors, Weighted Decisions.

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351 Digital Sites- Performative Views

Authors: Gavin Perin, Linda Matthews

Abstract:

Webcam systems now function as the new privileged vantage points from which to view the city. This transformation of CCTV technology from surveillance to promotional tool is significant because its'scopic regime' presents, back to the public, a new virtual 'site' that sits alongside its real-time counterpart. Significantly, thisraw 'image' data can, in fact,be co-optedand processed so as to disrupt their original purpose. This paper will demonstrate this disruptive capacity through an architectural project. It will reveal how the adaption the webcam image offers a technical springboard by which to initiate alternate urban form making decisions and subvert the disciplinary reliance on the 'flat' orthographic plan. In so doing, the paper will show how this 'digital material' exceeds the imagistic function of the image; shiftingit from being a vehicle of signification to a site of affect.

Keywords: Surveillance, virtual, scopic, additive

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350 A Symbol by Symbol Clustering Based Blind Equalizer

Authors: Kristina Georgoulakis

Abstract:

A new blind symbol by symbol equalizer is proposed. The operation of the proposed equalizer is based on the geometric properties of the two dimensional data constellation. An unsupervised clustering technique is used to locate the clusters formed by the received data. The symmetric properties of the clusters labels are subsequently utilized in order to label the clusters. Following this step, the received data are compared to clusters and decisions are made on a symbol by symbol basis, by assigning to each data the label of the nearest cluster. The operation of the equalizer is investigated both in linear and nonlinear channels. The performance of the proposed equalizer is compared to the performance of a CMAbased blind equalizer.

Keywords: Blind equalization, channel equalization, cluster based equalisers

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349 Practice of Social Audit in Hotel Companies: Case Study of Agadir, Morocco

Authors: M. El Mousadik, F. Elkandoussi

Abstract:

The concern for increased rigor in social management has led more and more Moroccan business leaders to question the value of applying social audit as an essential tool in the management of human resources. Hotel companies are not excluded; in fact, they are expected to implement such an audit to develop sound and credible human resources management (HRM) policies. The main objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between the practice of social audit as a tool, and its impact on the tourism sector, especially on hotels at one of the Morocco’s first and most popular city for tourism, Agadir. This exploratory study of properties in Agadir has revealed that hotel executives are aware of the importance of social auditing to hone their decisions in the field of HRM.

Keywords: Social audit, hotel companies, human resources management, social piloting.

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348 Textile Dyeing with Natural Dye from Sappan Tree (Caesalpinia sappan Linn.) Extract

Authors: Ploysai Ohama, Nattida Tumpat

Abstract:

Natural dye extracted from Caesalpinia sappan Linn. was applied to a cotton fabric and silk yarn by dyeing process. The dyestuff component of Caesalpinia sappan Linn. was extracted using water and ethanol. Analytical studies such as UV–VIS spectrophotometry and gravimetric analysis were performed on the extracts. Brazilein, the major dyestuff component of Caesalpinia sappan Linn. was confirmed in both aqueous and ethanolic extracts by UV–VIS spectrum. The color of each dyed material was investigated in terms of the CIELAB (L*, a* and b*) and K/S values. Cotton fabric dyed without mordant had a shade of reddish-brown, while those post-mordanted with aluminum potassium sulfate, ferrous sulfate and copper sulfate produced a variety of wine red to dark purple color shades. Cotton fabric and silk yarn dyeing was studied using aluminum potassium sulfate as a mordant. The observed color strength was enhanced with increase in mordant concentration.

Keywords: Natural dyes, Plant materials, Dyeing, Mordant.

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347 Investment Prediction Using Simulation

Authors: Hussam Al-Shorman, Yosef Hasan Jbara

Abstract:

A business case is a proposal for an investment initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the organization will use its resources in the best way by providing justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how simulation was used for business case benefits and return on investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of 8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.

Keywords: Investment cost, business case, return on investment, simulation.

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346 Demographic Factors Influencing Employees’ Salary Expectations and Labor Turnover

Authors: M. Osipova

Abstract:

Thanks to informational technologies development every sphere of economics is becoming more and more datacentralized as people are generating huge datasets containing information on any aspect of their life. Applying research of such data to human resources management allows getting scarce statistics on labor market state including salary expectations and potential employees’ typical career behavior, and this information can become a reliable basis for management decisions. The following article presents results of career behavior research based on freely accessible resume data. Information used for study is much wider than one usually uses in human resources surveys. That is why there is enough data for statistically significant results even for subgroups analysis.

Keywords: Human resources management, labor market, salary expectations, statistics, turnover.

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345 Site Selection of Traffic Camera based on Dempster-Shafer and Bagging Theory

Authors: S. Rokhsari, M. Delavar, A. Sadeghi-Niaraki, A. Abed-Elmdoust, B. Moshiri

Abstract:

Traffic incident has bad effect on all parts of society so controlling road networks with enough traffic devices could help to decrease number of accidents, so using the best method for optimum site selection of these devices could help to implement good monitoring system. This paper has considered here important criteria for optimum site selection of traffic camera based on aggregation methods such as Bagging and Dempster-Shafer concepts. In the first step, important criteria such as annual traffic flow, distance from critical places such as parks that need more traffic controlling were identified for selection of important road links for traffic camera installation, Then classification methods such as Artificial neural network and Decision tree algorithms were employed for classification of road links based on their importance for camera installation. Then for improving the result of classifiers aggregation methods such as Bagging and Dempster-Shafer theories were used.

Keywords: Aggregation, Bagging theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, Site selection

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344 The Concept and Practice of Good Governance in the European Union

Authors: Robert Grzeszczak

Abstract:

The article deals with one of the most significant issues concerning the functioning of the public sector in the European Union. The objectives of good governance were formulated by the EU itself and also the Scholars in reaction to the discussion that started a decade ago and concerned the role of the government in 21st century, the future of integration processes and globalization challenges in Europe. Currently, the concept of good governance is mainly associated with the improvement of management of public policies in the European Union, concerning both domestic and EU policies. However, it goes beyond the issues of state capacity and effectiveness of management. Good governance relates also to societal participation in the public administration and verification of decisions made in public authorities’ (including public administration). Indirectly, the concept and practice of good governance are connected to societal legitimisation of public bodies in the European Union.

Keywords: Good governance, Government, European law, European Union.

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343 Investigating Financial Literacy among Emiratis

Authors: Ashraf Khalil, Salam Abdallah, Khalil Al-hilo, Ebere Iroadu

Abstract:

Financial literacy is one of the key factors needed in making informed financial decisions. As businesses continue to be more profit driven, more financial and economic intrigues arise that continue to put individuals at the risk of spending more and more without considering the short term and long term effects. We conducted a study to assess financial literacy and financial decision making among Emiratis. Our results show that financial literacy is lacking among Emiratis. Also, almost half of respondents owe loans to other peoples and 1/5 of them have bank loans. We expect that the outcome of this research will be useful for designing educational programs and policies to promote financial planning and security among Emiratis. We also posit that deeper and more informed understanding of this problem is a precursor for developing effective financial education programs with the aim of improving financial decision- making among Emiratis.

Keywords: Financial literacy, loans, financial planning, Emiratis.

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342 Molecular Characterization of Free Radicals Decomposing Genes on Plant Developmental Stages

Authors: R. Haddad, K. Morris, V. Buchanan-Wollaston

Abstract:

Biochemical and molecular analysis of some antioxidant enzyme genes revealed different level of gene expression on oilseed (Brassica napus). For molecular and biochemical analysis, leaf tissues were harvested from plants at eight different developmental stages, from young to senescence. The levels of total protein and chlorophyll were increased during maturity stages of plant, while these were decreased during the last stages of plant growth. Structural analysis (nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequence, and phylogenic tree) of a complementary DNA revealed a high level of similarity for a family of Catalase genes. The expression of the gene encoded by different Catalase isoforms was assessed during different plant growth phase. No significant difference between samples was observed, when Catalase activity was statistically analyzed at different developmental stages. EST analysis exhibited different transcripts levels for a number of other relevant antioxidant genes (different isoforms of SOD and glutathione). The high level of transcription of these genes at senescence stages was indicated that these genes are senescenceinduced genes.

Keywords: Biochemical analysis, Oilseed, Expression pattern, Growth phases

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341 Risk Quantification for Tunnel Excavation Process

Authors: J. Šejnoha, D. Jarušková, O. Špačková, E. Novotná

Abstract:

Construction of tunnels is connected with high uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e. unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and planning or failures in the execution. This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and enable the transfer of information and experience between particular tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers, management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a probabilistic approach.

Keywords: risk quantification, tunnel collapse, ETA, FTA, geotechnical risk

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340 Fractal - Wavelet Based Techniques for Improving the Artificial Neural Network Models

Authors: Reza Bazargan Lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

Abstract:

Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for preprocessing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based preprocessing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: Wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN.

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339 A Comprehensive Key Performance Indicators Dashboard for Emergency Medical Services

Authors: G. Feletti, D. Tedesco, P. Trucco

Abstract:

The present study aims to develop a dashboard of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to enhance information and predictive capabilities in Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems, supporting both operational and strategic decisions of different actors. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning the indicators currently in use for the performance measurement of EMS. It emerges that current studies focus on two distinct areas and independent objectives: the ambulance service, a fundamental component of pre-hospital health treatment, and the patient care in the Emergency Department (ED). Conversely, the perspective proposed by this study is to consider an integrated view of the ambulance service process and the ED process, both essential to ensure high quality of care and patient safety. Thus, the proposal covers the end-to-end healthcare service process and, as such, allows considering the interconnection between the two EMS processes, the pre-hospital and hospital ones, connected by the assignment of the patient to a specific ED. In this way, it is possible to optimize the entire patient management. Therefore, attention is paid even to EMS aspects that in current literature tend to be neglected or underestimated. In particular, the integration of the two processes enables to evaluate the advantage of an ED selection decision having visibility on EDs’ saturation status and therefore considering, besides the distance, the available resources and the expected waiting times. Starting from a critical review of the KPIs proposed in extant literature, the design of the dashboard was carried out: the high number of analyzed KPIs was reduced by eliminating firstly the ones not in line with the aim of the study and then the ones supporting a similar functionality. The KPIs finally selected were tested on a realistic dataset, which draw us to exclude additional indicators due to unavailability of data required for their computation. The final dashboard, that was discussed and validated by experts in the field, includes a variety of KPIs able to support operational and planning decisions, early warning, and citizens’ awareness on EDs accessibility in real time. The association of each KPI to the EMS phase it refers to enabled the design of a well-balanced dashboard, covering both efficiency and effectiveness performance objectives of the entire EMS process. Indeed, just the initial phases related to the interconnection between ambulance service and patient care are covered by traditional KPIs. Future developments could be directed to building a hierarchical dashboard, composed by a high-level minimal set of KPIs for measuring the basic performance of the EMS system, at an aggregate level, and lower levels of KPIs that bring additional and more detailed information on specific performance dimensions or EMS phases.

Keywords: Emergency Medical Services, Key Performance Indicators, Dashboard, Decision Support.

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338 The Art of Leadership: Skills to Inspire the Team to Overcome Project Challenges and Achieve Their Goals

Authors: Maitham Al-Safwani

Abstract:

This paper highlights skills that a leader needs to acquire to lead a team successfully. With an appropriate vision and strategy, a team can be inspired, influenced and easily led. The importance of setting codes of conduct and establishing mutual agreements between the team members can help in minimizing issues and improving overall productivity. Leadership skills include the power of questioning (PoQ), effective communication, identification of team member responsibilities, and assessment of self and the team. This paper will highlight the impact of good leadership on work progress and overall team performance. The paper explains how leaders make correct decisions by avoiding hasty actions that could generate new errors, mistakes, and issues. The importance of positive expectations for the team is addressed in this paper that could result in efficient control of the work with better outcomes.

Keywords: Leadership, inspire, confidence, power of questioning, leader impacts.

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