Search results for: computer aided prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2365

Search results for: computer aided prediction.

2065 The Customization of 3D Last Form Design Based On Weighted Blending

Authors: Shih-Wen Hsiao, Chu-Hsuan Lee, Rong-Qi Chen

Abstract:

When it comes to last, it is regarded as the critical foundation of shoe design and development. Not only the last relates to the comfort of shoes wearing but also it aids the production of shoe styling and manufacturing. In order to enhance the efficiency and application of last development, a computer aided methodology for customized last form designs is proposed in this study. The reverse engineering is mainly applied to the process of scanning for the last form. Then the minimum energy is used for the revision of surface continuity, the surface of the last is reconstructed with the feature curves of the scanned last. When the surface of a last is reconstructed, based on the foundation of the proposed last form reconstruction module, the weighted arithmetic mean method is applied to the calculation on the shape morphing which differs from the grading for the control mesh of last, and the algorithm of subdivision is used to create the surface of last mesh, thus the feet-fitting 3D last form of different sizes is generated from its original form feature with functions remained. Finally, the practicability of the proposed methodology is verified through later case studies.

Keywords: 3D last design, Customization, Reverse engineering, Weighted morphing, Shape blending.

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2064 Evaluation of Context Information for Intermittent Networks

Authors: S. Balaji, E. Golden Julie, Y. Harold Robinson

Abstract:

The context aware adaptive routing protocol is presented for unicast communication in intermittently connected mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). The selection of the node is done by the Kalman filter prediction theory and it also makes use of utility functions. The context aware adaptive routing is defined by spray and wait technique, but the time consumption in delivering the message is too high and also the resource wastage is more. In this paper, we describe the spray and focus routing scheme for avoiding the existing problems.

Keywords: Context aware adaptive routing, Kalman filter prediction, spray and wait, spray and focus, intermittent networks.

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2063 Infrastructure means for Adaptive Camouflage

Authors: Jiri Barta, Albert Srnik

Abstract:

The paper deals with the perspectives and possibilities of "smart solutions" to critical infrastructure protection. It means that common computer aided technologies are used from the perspective of new, better protection of selected infrastructure objects. The paper is focused on the co-product of the Czech Defence Research Project - ADAPTIV. This project is carrying out by the University of Defence, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Department of Civil Protection. The project creates system and technology for adaptive cybernetic camouflage of armed forces objects, armaments, vehicles and troops and of mobilization infrastructure. These adaptive camouflage system and technology will be useful for army tactic activities protection and for decoys generation also. The fourth chapter of the paper concerns the possibilities of using the introduced technology to the protection of selected civil (economically important), critical infrastructure objects. The aim of this section is to introduce the scientific capabilities and potential of the University of Defence research results and solutions for the practice.

Keywords: ADAPTIV, Adaptive camouflage technology, CAMouflage, Cybernetic Active Camouflage

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2062 A Stereo Image Processing System for Visually Impaired

Authors: G. Balakrishnan, G. Sainarayanan, R. Nagarajan, Sazali Yaacob

Abstract:

This paper presents a review on vision aided systems and proposes an approach for visual rehabilitation using stereo vision technology. The proposed system utilizes stereo vision, image processing methodology and a sonification procedure to support blind navigation. The developed system includes a wearable computer, stereo cameras as vision sensor and stereo earphones, all moulded in a helmet. The image of the scene infront of visually handicapped is captured by the vision sensors. The captured images are processed to enhance the important features in the scene in front, for navigation assistance. The image processing is designed as model of human vision by identifying the obstacles and their depth information. The processed image is mapped on to musical stereo sound for the blind-s understanding of the scene infront. The developed method has been tested in the indoor and outdoor environments and the proposed image processing methodology is found to be effective for object identification.

Keywords: Blind navigation, stereo vision, image processing, object preference, music tones.

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2061 Evaluation of Chiller Power Consumption Using Grey Prediction

Authors: Tien-Shun Chan, Yung-Chung Chang, Cheng-Yu Chu, Wen-Hui Chen, Yuan-Lin Chen, Shun-Chong Wang, Chang-Chun Wang

Abstract:

98% of the energy needed in Taiwan has been imported. The prices of petroleum and electricity have been increasing. In addition, facility capacity, amount of electricity generation, amount of electricity consumption and number of Taiwan Power Company customers have continued to increase. For these reasons energy conservation has become an important topic. In the past linear regression was used to establish the power consumption models for chillers. In this study, grey prediction is used to evaluate the power consumption of a chiller so as to lower the total power consumption at peak-load (so that the relevant power providers do not need to keep on increasing their power generation capacity and facility capacity). In grey prediction, only several numerical values (at least four numerical values) are needed to establish the power consumption models for chillers. If PLR, the temperatures of supply chilled-water and return chilled-water, and the temperatures of supply cooling-water and return cooling-water are taken into consideration, quite accurate results (with the accuracy close to 99% for short-term predictions) may be obtained. Through such methods, we can predict whether the power consumption at peak-load will exceed the contract power capacity signed by the corresponding entity and Taiwan Power Company. If the power consumption at peak-load exceeds the power demand, the temperature of the supply chilled-water may be adjusted so as to reduce the PLR and hence lower the power consumption.

Keywords: Gery system theory, grey prediction, chller.

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2060 Investigation of Improved Chaotic Signal Tracking by Echo State Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron via Training of Extended Kalman Filter Approach

Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

This paper presents a prediction performance of feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Echo State Networks (ESN) trained with extended Kalman filter. Feedforward neural networks and ESN are powerful neural networks which can track and predict nonlinear signals. However, their tracking performance depends on the specific signals or data sets, having the risk of instability accompanied by large error. In this study we explore this process by applying different network size and leaking rate for prediction of nonlinear or chaotic signals in MLP neural networks. Major problems of ESN training such as the problem of initialization of the network and improvement in the prediction performance are tackled. The influence of coefficient of activation function in the hidden layer and other key parameters are investigated by simulation results. Extended Kalman filter is employed in order to improve the sequential and regulation learning rate of the feedforward neural networks. This training approach has vital features in the training of the network when signals have chaotic or non-stationary sequential pattern. Minimization of the variance in each step of the computation and hence smoothing of tracking were obtained by examining the results, indicating satisfactory tracking characteristics for certain conditions. In addition, simulation results confirmed satisfactory performance of both of the two neural networks with modified parameterization in tracking of the nonlinear signals.

Keywords: Feedforward neural networks, nonlinear signal prediction, echo state neural networks approach, leaking rates, capacity of neural networks.

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2059 Meteorological Data Study and Forecasting Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Authors: S. Esfandeh, M. Sedighizadeh

Abstract:

Weather systems use enormously complex combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting. Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore, the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms. Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld meteorological time series.

Keywords: Weather, Climate, PSO, Prediction, Meteorological

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2058 Prediction of Natural Gas Viscosity using Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: E. Nemati Lay, M. Peymani, E. Sanjari

Abstract:

Prediction of viscosity of natural gas is an important parameter in the energy industries such as natural gas storage and transportation. In this study viscosity of different compositions of natural gas is modeled by using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on back-propagation method. A reliable database including more than 3841 experimental data of viscosity for testing and training of ANN is used. The designed neural network can predict the natural gas viscosity using pseudo-reduced pressure and pseudo-reduced temperature with AARD% of 0.221. The accuracy of designed ANN has been compared to other published empirical models. The comparison indicates that the proposed method can provide accurate results.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Empirical correlation, Natural gas, Viscosity

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2057 Application and Assessment of Artificial Neural Networks for Biodiesel Iodine Value Prediction

Authors: Raquel M. de Sousa, Sofiane Labidi, Allan Kardec D. Barros, Alex O. Barradas Filho, Aldalea L. B. Marques

Abstract:

Several parameters are established in order to measure biodiesel quality. One of them is the iodine value, which is an important parameter that measures the total unsaturation within a mixture of fatty acids. Limitation of unsaturated fatty acids is necessary since warming of higher quantity of these ones ends in either formation of deposits inside the motor or damage of lubricant. Determination of iodine value by official procedure tends to be very laborious, with high costs and toxicity of the reagents, this study uses artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict the iodine value property as an alternative to these problems. The methodology of development of networks used 13 esters of fatty acids in the input with convergence algorithms of back propagation of back propagation type were optimized in order to get an architecture of prediction of iodine value. This study allowed us to demonstrate the neural networks’ ability to learn the correlation between biodiesel quality properties, in this caseiodine value, and the molecular structures that make it up. The model developed in the study reached a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.99 for both network validation and network simulation, with Levenberg-Maquardt algorithm.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Biodiesel, Iodine Value, Prediction.

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2056 High Capacity Data Hiding based on Predictor and Histogram Modification

Authors: Hui-Yu Huang, Shih-Hsu Chang

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a high capacity image hiding technology based on pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram. This approach is used the pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram to calculate the best embedding point. This approach can improve the predictive accuracy and increase the pixel difference to advance the hiding capacity. We also use the histogram modification to prevent the overflow and underflow. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method within the same average hiding capacity can still keep high quality of image and low distortion

Keywords: data hiding, predictor

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2055 Prediction of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Dynamics in an Iowan Agriculture Watershed

Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

Abstract:

In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the Ksat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured Ksat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of Ksat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

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2054 Evaluation of Introductory Programming Course for Non-Computer Science Majored Students

Authors: H. Varol

Abstract:

Although students’ interest level in pursuing Computer Science and related degrees are lower than previous decade, fundamentals of computers, specifically introductory level programming courses are either listed as core or elective courses for a number of non-computer science majors. Universities accommodate these non-computer science majored students either via creating separate sections of a class for them or simply offering mixed-body classroom solutions, in which both computer science and non-computer science students take the courses together. In this work, we demonstrated how we handle introductory level programming course at Sam Houston State University and also provide facts about our observations on students’ success during the coursework. Moreover, we provide suggestions and methodologies that are based on students’ major and skills to overcome the deficiencies of mix-body type of classes.

Keywords: Computer science, non-computer science major, programming, programming education.

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2053 Thermalytix: An Advanced Artificial Intelligence Based Solution for Non-Contact Breast Screening

Authors: S. Sudhakar, Geetha Manjunath, Siva Teja Kakileti, Himanshu Madhu

Abstract:

Diagnosis of breast cancer at early stages has seen better clinical and survival outcomes. Survival rates in developing countries like India are very low due to accessibility and affordability issues of screening tests such as Mammography. In addition, Mammography is not much effective in younger women with dense breasts. This leaves a gap in current screening methods. Thermalytix is a new technique for detecting breast abnormality in a non-contact, non-invasive way. It is an AI-enabled computer-aided diagnosis solution that automates interpretation of high resolution thermal images and identifies potential malignant lesions. The solution is low cost, easy to use, portable and is effective in all age groups.  This paper presents the results of a retrospective comparative analysis of Thermalytix over Mammography and Clinical Breast Examination for breast cancer screening. Thermalytix was found to have better sensitivity than both the tests, with good specificity as well. In addition, Thermalytix identified all malignant patients without palpable lumps.

Keywords: Breast Cancer Screening, Radiology, Thermalytix, Artificial Intelligence, Thermography.

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2052 Determining the Width and Depths of Cut in Milling on the Basis of a Multi-Dexel Model

Authors: Jens Friedrich, Matthias A. Gebele, Armin Lechler, Alexander Verl

Abstract:

Chatter vibrations and process instabilities are the most important factors limiting the productivity of the milling process. Chatter can leads to damage of the tool, the part or the machine tool. Therefore, the estimation and prediction of the process stability is very important. The process stability depends on the spindle speed, the depth of cut and the width of cut. In milling, the process conditions are defined in the NC-program. While the spindle speed is directly coded in the NC-program, the depth and width of cut are unknown. This paper presents a new simulation based approach for the prediction of the depth and width of cut of a milling process. The prediction is based on a material removal simulation with an analytically represented tool shape and a multi-dexel approach for the workpiece. The new calculation method allows the direct estimation of the depth and width of cut, which are the influencing parameters of the process stability, instead of the removed volume as existing approaches do. The knowledge can be used to predict the stability of new, unknown parts. Moreover with an additional vibration sensor, the stability lobe diagram of a milling process can be estimated and improved based on the estimated depth and width of cut.

Keywords: Dexel, process stability, material removal, milling.

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2051 Massive Lesions Classification using Features based on Morphological Lesion Differences

Authors: U. Bottigli, D.Cascio, F. Fauci, B. Golosio, R. Magro, G.L. Masala, P. Oliva, G. Raso, S.Stumbo

Abstract:

Purpose of this work is the development of an automatic classification system which could be useful for radiologists in the investigation of breast cancer. The software has been designed in the framework of the MAGIC-5 collaboration. In the automatic classification system the suspicious regions with high probability to include a lesion are extracted from the image as regions of interest (ROIs). Each ROI is characterized by some features based on morphological lesion differences. Some classifiers as a Feed Forward Neural Network, a K-Nearest Neighbours and a Support Vector Machine are used to distinguish the pathological records from the healthy ones. The results obtained in terms of sensitivity (percentage of pathological ROIs correctly classified) and specificity (percentage of non-pathological ROIs correctly classified) will be presented through the Receive Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). In particular the best performances are 88% ± 1 of area under ROC curve obtained with the Feed Forward Neural Network.

Keywords: Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbours, SupportVector Machine, Computer Aided Diagnosis.

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2050 Investigation of Some Technical Indexes inStock Forecasting Using Neural Networks

Authors: Myungsook Klassen

Abstract:

Training neural networks to capture an intrinsic property of a large volume of high dimensional data is a difficult task, as the training process is computationally expensive. Input attributes should be carefully selected to keep the dimensionality of input vectors relatively small. Technical indexes commonly used for stock market prediction using neural networks are investigated to determine its effectiveness as inputs. The feed forward neural network of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied to perform one step ahead forecasting of NASDAQ and Dow stock prices.

Keywords: Stock Market Prediction, Neural Networks, Levenberg-Marquadt Algorithm, Technical Indexes

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2049 Finite Element Analysis for Damped Vibration Properties of Panels Laminated Porous Media

Authors: Y. Kurosawa, T. Yamaguchi

Abstract:

A numerical method is proposed to calculate damping properties for sound-proof structures involving elastic body, viscoelastic body, and porous media. For elastic and viscoelastic body displacement is modeled using conventional finite elements including complex modulus of elasticity. Both effective density and bulk modulus have complex quantities to represent damped sound fields in the porous media. Particle displacement in the porous media is discretised using finite element method. Displacement vectors as common unknown variables are solved under coupled condition between elastic body, viscoelastic body and porous media. Further, explicit expressions of modal loss factor for the mixed structures are derived using asymptotic method. Eigenvalue analysis and frequency responded were calculated for automotive test panel laminated viscoelastic and porous structures using this technique, the results almost agreed with the experimental results.

Keywords: Damping, Porous Media, Finite Element Method, Computer Aided Engineering.

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2048 An Integrative Bayesian Approach to Supporting the Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions: A Case Study in Human Heart Failure

Authors: Fiona Browne, Huiru Zheng, Haiying Wang, Francisco Azuaje

Abstract:

Recent years have seen a growing trend towards the integration of multiple information sources to support large-scale prediction of protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks in model organisms. Despite advances in computational approaches, the combination of multiple “omic" datasets representing the same type of data, e.g. different gene expression datasets, has not been rigorously studied. Furthermore, there is a need to further investigate the inference capability of powerful approaches, such as fullyconnected Bayesian networks, in the context of the prediction of PPI networks. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a Bayesian approach to integrate multiple datasets, some of which encode the same type of “omic" data to support the identification of PPI networks. The case study reported involved the combination of three gene expression datasets relevant to human heart failure (HF). In comparison with two traditional methods, Naive Bayesian and maximum likelihood ratio approaches, the proposed technique can accurately identify known PPI and can be applied to infer potentially novel interactions.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Classification, Data integration, Protein interaction networks.

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2047 Development of Maximum Entropy Method for Prediction of Droplet-size Distribution in Primary Breakup Region of Spray

Authors: E. Movahednejad, F. Ommi

Abstract:

Droplet size distributions in the cold spray of a fuel are important in observed combustion behavior. Specification of droplet size and velocity distributions in the immediate downstream of injectors is also essential as boundary conditions for advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and two-phase spray transport calculations. This paper describes the development of a new model to be incorporated into maximum entropy principle (MEP) formalism for prediction of droplet size distribution in droplet formation region. The MEP approach can predict the most likely droplet size and velocity distributions under a set of constraints expressing the available information related to the distribution. In this article, by considering the mechanisms of turbulence generation inside the nozzle and wave growth on jet surface, it is attempted to provide a logical framework coupling the flow inside the nozzle to the resulting atomization process. The purpose of this paper is to describe the formulation of this new model and to incorporate it into the maximum entropy principle (MEP) by coupling sub-models together using source terms of momentum and energy. Comparison between the model prediction and experimental data for a gas turbine swirling nozzle and an annular spray indicate good agreement between model and experiment.

Keywords: Droplet, instability, Size Distribution, Turbulence, Maximum Entropy

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2046 Magnet Position Variation of the Electromagnetic Actuation System in a Torsional Scanner

Authors: Loke Kean Koay, Mani Maran Ratnam

Abstract:

A mechanically-resonant torsional spring scanner was developed in a recent study. Various methods were developed to improve the angular displacement of the scanner while maintaining the scanner frequency. However the effects of rotor magnet radial position on scanner characteristics were not well investigated. In this study, the relationships between the magnet position and the scanner characteristics such as natural frequency, angular displacement and stress level were studied. A finite element model was created and an average deviation of 3.18% was found between the simulation and experimental results, qualifying the simulation results as a guide for further investigations. Three magnet positions on the transverse oscillating suspended plate were investigated by finite element analysis (FEA) and one of the positions were selected as the design position. The magnet position with the longest distance from the twist axis of mirror was selected since it attains minimum stress level, while exceeding the minimum critical flicker frequency and delivering the targeted angular displacement to the scanner.

Keywords: Computer-aided design, design optimization, torsional scanner.

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2045 An Improved Model for Prediction of the Effective Thermal Conductivity of Nanofluids

Authors: K. Abbaspoursani, M. Allahyari, M. Rahmani

Abstract:

Thermal conductivity is an important characteristic of a nanofluid in laminar flow heat transfer. This paper presents an improved model for the prediction of the effective thermal conductivity of nanofluids based on dimensionless groups. The model expresses the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid as a function of the thermal conductivity of the solid and liquid, their volume fractions and particle size. The proposed model includes a parameter which accounts for the interfacial shell, brownian motion, and aggregation of particle. The validation of the model is verified by applying the results obtained by the experiments of Tio2-water and Al2o3-water nanofluids.

Keywords: Critical particle size, nanofluid, model, and thermal conductivity.

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2044 A General Segmentation Scheme for Contouring Kidney Region in Ultrasound Kidney Images using Improved Higher Order Spline Interpolation

Authors: K. Bommanna Raja, M.Madheswaran, K.Thyagarajah

Abstract:

A higher order spline interpolated contour obtained with up-sampling of homogenously distributed coordinates for segmentation of kidney region in different classes of ultrasound kidney images has been developed and presented in this paper. The performance of the proposed method is measured and compared with modified snake model contour, Markov random field contour and expert outlined contour. The validation of the method is made in correspondence with expert outlined contour using maximum coordinate distance, Hausdorff distance and mean radial distance metrics. The results obtained reveal that proposed scheme provides optimum contour that agrees well with expert outlined contour. Moreover this technique helps to preserve the pixels-of-interest which in specific defines the functional characteristic of kidney. This explores various possibilities in implementing computer-aided diagnosis system exclusively for US kidney images.

Keywords: Ultrasound Kidney Image – Kidney Segmentation –Active Contour – Markov Random Field – Higher Order SplineInterpolation

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2043 Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil

Abstract:

There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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2042 Effective Stacking of Deep Neural Models for Automated Object Recognition in Retail Stores

Authors: Ankit Sinha, Soham Banerjee, Pratik Chattopadhyay

Abstract:

Automated product recognition in retail stores is an important real-world application in the domain of Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. In this paper, we consider the problem of automatically identifying the classes of the products placed on racks in retail stores from an image of the rack and information about the query/product images. We improve upon the existing approaches in terms of effectiveness and memory requirement by developing a two-stage object detection and recognition pipeline comprising of a Faster-RCNN-based object localizer that detects the object regions in the rack image and a ResNet-18-based image encoder that classifies  the detected regions into the appropriate classes. Each of the models is fine-tuned using appropriate data sets for better prediction and data augmentation is performed on each query image to prepare an extensive gallery set for fine-tuning the ResNet-18-based product recognition model. This encoder is trained using a triplet loss function following the strategy of online-hard-negative-mining for improved prediction. The proposed models are lightweight and can be connected in an end-to-end manner during deployment to automatically identify each product object placed in a rack image. Extensive experiments using Grozi-32k and GP-180 data sets verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Retail stores, Faster-RCNN, object localization, ResNet-18, triplet loss, data augmentation, product recognition.

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2041 Mixtures of Monotone Networks for Prediction

Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders

Abstract:

In many data mining applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies, we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.

Keywords: mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.

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2040 Prediction of Basic Wind Speed for Ayeyarwady

Authors: Chaw Su Mon

Abstract:

Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).

Keywords: Basic Wind Speed, Building, Gusts, Statistical and probabilistic approaches

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2039 Breast Skin-Line Estimation and Breast Segmentation in Mammograms using Fast-Marching Method

Authors: Roshan Dharshana Yapa, Koichi Harada

Abstract:

Breast skin-line estimation and breast segmentation is an important pre-process in mammogram image processing and computer-aided diagnosis of breast cancer. Limiting the area to be processed into a specific target region in an image would increase the accuracy and efficiency of processing algorithms. In this paper we are presenting a new algorithm for estimating skin-line and breast segmentation using fast marching algorithm. Fast marching is a partial-differential equation based numerical technique to track evolution of interfaces. We have introduced some modifications to the traditional fast marching method, specifically to improve the accuracy of skin-line estimation and breast tissue segmentation. Proposed modifications ensure that the evolving front stops near the desired boundary. We have evaluated the performance of the algorithm by using 100 mammogram images taken from mini-MIAS database. The results obtained from the experimental evaluation indicate that this algorithm explains 98.6% of the ground truth breast region and accuracy of the segmentation is 99.1%. Also this algorithm is capable of partially-extracting nipple when it is available in the profile.

Keywords: Mammogram, fast marching method, mathematical morphology.

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2038 Scour Depth Prediction around Bridge Piers Using Neuro-Fuzzy and Neural Network Approaches

Authors: H. Bonakdari, I. Ebtehaj

Abstract:

The prediction of scour depth around bridge piers is frequently considered in river engineering. One of the key aspects in efficient and optimum bridge structure design is considered to be scour depth estimation around bridge piers. In this study, scour depth around bridge piers is estimated using two methods, namely the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, the effective parameters in scour depth prediction are determined using the ANN and ANFIS methods via dimensional analysis, and subsequently, the parameters are predicted. In the current study, the methods’ performances are compared with the nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The results show that both methods presented in this study outperform existing methods. Moreover, using the ratio of pier length to flow depth, ratio of median diameter of particles to flow depth, ratio of pier width to flow depth, the Froude number and standard deviation of bed grain size parameters leads to optimal performance in scour depth estimation.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, artificial neural network, ANN, bridge pier, scour depth, nonlinear regression, NLR.

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2037 An Application for Risk of Crime Prediction Using Machine Learning

Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

Abstract:

The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: Crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city.

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2036 Introducing Sequence-Order Constraint into Prediction of Protein Binding Sites with Automatically Extracted Templates

Authors: Yi-Zhong Weng, Chien-Kang Huang, Yu-Feng Huang, Chi-Yuan Yu, Darby Tien-Hao Chang

Abstract:

Search for a tertiary substructure that geometrically matches the 3D pattern of the binding site of a well-studied protein provides a solution to predict protein functions. In our previous work, a web server has been built to predict protein-ligand binding sites based on automatically extracted templates. However, a drawback of such templates is that the web server was prone to resulting in many false positive matches. In this study, we present a sequence-order constraint to reduce the false positive matches of using automatically extracted templates to predict protein-ligand binding sites. The binding site predictor comprises i) an automatically constructed template library and ii) a local structure alignment algorithm for querying the library. The sequence-order constraint is employed to identify the inconsistency between the local regions of the query protein and the templates. Experimental results reveal that the sequence-order constraint can largely reduce the false positive matches and is effective for template-based binding site prediction.

Keywords: Protein structure, binding site, functional prediction

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