Search results for: Selection of risk measures

Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

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Attributes and methods are the basic contents of an object-oriented class. The connectivity among these class members and the relationship between the class and other classes play an important role in determining the quality of an object-oriented system. Class cohesion evaluates the degree of relatedness of class attributes and methods, whereas class coupling refers to the degree to which a class is related to other classes. Researchers have proposed several class cohesion and class coupling measures. However, the correlation between class coupling and class cohesion measures has not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, using classes of three open-source Java systems, we empirically investigate the correlation between several measures of connectivity-based class cohesion and coupling. Four connectivity-based cohesion measures and eight coupling measures are considered in the empirical study. The empirical study results show that class connectivity-based cohesion and coupling internal quality attributes are inversely correlated. The strength of the correlation depends highly on the cohesion and coupling measurement approaches.

Keywords: Object-oriented class, software quality, class cohesion measure, class coupling measure.

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Authors: Michael Grigutsch, Peter Nyhuis

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Due to the volatile global economy, enterprises are increasingly focusing on logistics. By investing in suitable measures a company can increase their logistic performance and assert themselves over the competition. However, enterprises are also faced with the challenge of investing available capital for maximum profits. In order to be able to create an informed and quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need a suitable model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures in production. Previously, within the frame of Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the Institute for Production Systems and Logistics, (IFA) a Logistic Information System was developed specifically for providing enterprises in the forging industry with support when making decisions. Based on this research, a new initiative referred to as ‘Transfer Project T7’, aims to develop a universal approach for logistically and monetarily evaluating production measures. This paper focuses on the structural measure echelon storage and their impact on the entire production system.

Keywords: Logistic Operating Curves, Transfer Functions, Production Logistics, Storages Echelon.

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Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas

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In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).

Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.

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Authors: N. Arulanand, P. M. Ananth

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Quality of Service (QoS) attributes as part of the service description is an important factor for service attribute. It is not easy to exactly quantify the weight of each QoS conditions since human judgments based on their preference causes vagueness. As web services selection requires optimization, evolutionary computing based on heuristics to select an optimal solution is adopted. In this work, the evolutionary computing technique Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used for selecting a suitable web services based on the user’s weightage of each QoS values by optimizing the QoS weight vector and thereby finding the best weight vectors for best services that is being selected. Finally the results are compared and analyzed using static inertia weight and deterministic inertia weight of PSO.

Keywords: QoS, Optimization, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), weight vector, web services, web service selection.

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Authors: Liping Jing, Michael K. Ng, Tieyong Zeng

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Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer. More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment results on real world data show that the proposed framework often outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods, say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.

Keywords: Gene Selection, Cancer Prediction, Lasso, Clustering, Classification.

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: Risk, BIM, Shannon’s entropy, Fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects.

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Authors: Rameswar Debnath, Haruhisa Takahashi

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An evolutionary method whose selection and recombination operations are based on generalization error-bounds of support vector machine (SVM) can select a subset of potentially informative genes for SVM classifier very efficiently [7]. In this paper, we will use the derivative of error-bound (first-order criteria) to select and recombine gene features in the evolutionary process, and compare the performance of the derivative of error-bound with the error-bound itself (zero-order) in the evolutionary process. We also investigate several error-bounds and their derivatives to compare the performance, and find the best criteria for gene selection and classification. We use 7 cancer-related human gene expression datasets to evaluate the performance of the zero-order and first-order criteria of error-bounds. Though both criteria have the same strategy in theoretically, experimental results demonstrate the best criterion for microarray gene expression data.

Keywords: support vector machine, generalization error-bound, feature selection, evolutionary algorithm, microarray data

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Authors: David Libouga Li Gwet, Marius Otesteanu, Ideal Oscar Libouga, Laurent Bitjoka, Gheorghe D. Popa

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Image segmentation is a method to extract regions of interest from an image. It remains a fundamental problem in computer vision. The increasing diversity and the complexity of segmentation algorithms have led us firstly, to make a review and classify segmentation techniques, secondly to identify the most used measures of segmentation performance and thirdly, discuss deeply on segmentation philosophy in order to help the choice of adequate segmentation techniques for some applications. To justify the relevance of our analysis, recent algorithms of segmentation are presented through the proposed classification.

Keywords: Classification, image segmentation, measures of performance.

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Authors: Hui-Chuan Chu, Min-Ju Liao, Wei-Kai Cheng, William Wei-Jen Tsai, Yuh-Min Chen

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Avoiding learning failures in mathematics e-learning environments caused by emotional problems in students with autism has become an important topic for combining of special education with information and communications technology. This study presents an adaptive emotional adjustment model in mathematics e-learning for students with autism, emphasizing the lack of emotional perception in mathematics e-learning systems. In addition, an emotion classification for students with autism was developed by inducing emotions in mathematical learning environments to record changes in the physiological signals and facial expressions of students. Using these methods, 58 emotional features were obtained. These features were then processed using one-way ANOVA and information gain (IG). After reducing the feature dimension, methods of support vector machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and classification and regression trees (CART) were used to classify four emotional categories: baseline, happy, angry, and anxious. After testing and comparisons, in a situation without feature selection, the accuracy rate of the SVM classification can reach as high as 79.3-%. After using IG to reduce the feature dimension, with only 28 features remaining, SVM still has a classification accuracy of 78.2-%. The results of this research could enhance the effectiveness of eLearning in special education.

Keywords: Emotion classification, Physiological and facial Expression measures, Students with autism, Mathematics e-learning.

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Authors: Ashok Kumar, Narottam Chand, Vinod Kumar

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Due to the limited energy resources, energy efficient operation of sensor node is a key issue in wireless sensor networks. Clustering is an effective method to prolong the lifetime of energy constrained wireless sensor network. However, clustering in wireless sensor network faces several challenges such as selection of an optimal group of sensor nodes as cluster, optimum selection of cluster head, energy balanced optimal strategy for rotating the role of cluster head in a cluster, maintaining intra and inter cluster connectivity and optimal data routing in the network. In this paper, we propose a protocol supporting an energy efficient clustering, cluster head selection/rotation and data routing method to prolong the lifetime of sensor network. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed protocol prolongs network lifetime due to the use of efficient clustering, cluster head selection/rotation and data routing.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, clustering, energy efficient, localization.

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Authors: Isaura Esther Solano Núñez, David Suarez

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The main purpose of this research is to discover what causes death in children of the Wayuu community, and deeply analyze those results in order to take corrective measures to properly control infant mortality. We consider important to determine the reasons that are producing early death in this specific type of population, since they are the most vulnerable to high risk environmental conditions. In this way, the government, through competent authorities, may develop prevention policies and the right measures to avoid an increase of this tragic fact. The methodology used to develop this investigation is data mining, which consists in gaining and examining large amounts of data to produce new and valuable information. Through this technique it has been possible to determine that the child population is dying mostly from malnutrition. In short, this technique has been very useful to develop this study; it has allowed us to transform large amounts of information into a conclusive and important statement, which has made it easier to take appropriate steps to resolve a particular situation.

Keywords: Malnutrition, datamining, analytical, descriptive, population, wayuu, indigenous.

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

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Authors: Khin May Win, Nan Sai Moon Kham

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Identification of cancer genes that might anticipate the clinical behaviors from different types of cancer disease is challenging due to the huge number of genes and small number of patients samples. The new method is being proposed based on supervised learning of classification like support vector machines (SVMs).A new solution is described by the introduction of the Maximized Margin (MM) in the subset criterion, which permits to get near the least generalization error rate. In class prediction problem, gene selection is essential to improve the accuracy and to identify genes for cancer disease. The performance of the new method was evaluated with real-world data experiment. It can give the better accuracy for classification.

Keywords: Microarray data, feature selection, recursive featureelimination, support vector machines.

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining.

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Authors: Emre Ipekci Cetin, Ebru Tarcan Icigen

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Personnel selection process is considered as one of the most important and most difficult issues in human resources management. At the stage of personnel selection, the applicants are handled according to certain criteria, the candidates are dealt with, and efforts are made to select the most appropriate candidate. However, this process can be more complicated in terms of the managers who will carry out the staff selection process. Candidates should be evaluated according to different criteria such as work experience, education, foreign language level etc. It is crucial that a rational selection process is carried out by considering all the criteria in an integrated structure. In this study, the problem of choosing the front office manager of a 5 star accommodation enterprise operating in Antalya is addressed by using multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this context, SWARA (Step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis) and MOORA (Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of ratio analysis) methods, which have relatively few applications when compared with other methods, have been used together. Firstly SWARA method was used to calculate the weights of the criteria and subcriteria that were determined by the business. After the weights of the criteria were obtained, the MOORA method was used to rank the candidates using the ratio system and the reference point approach. Recruitment processes differ from sector to sector, from operation to operation. There are a number of criteria that must be taken into consideration by businesses in accordance with the structure of each sector. It is of utmost importance that all candidates are evaluated objectively in the framework of these criteria, after these criteria have been carefully selected in the selection of suitable candidates for employment. In the study, staff selection process was handled by using SWARA and MOORA methods together.

Keywords: Accommodation establishments, human resource management, MOORA, multi criteria decision making, SWARA.

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Authors: Hromada Martin

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Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Protection, Resilience, Risk Analysis.

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Authors: Monica Dudian , Raluca Andreea Popa

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This article analyses the relationship between sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of 355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system, involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries during the reviewed period.

Keywords: credit rating agencies, economic growth, gross domestic product, sovereign credit risk rating.

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Authors: Pei-Chann Chang, Wei-Hsiu Huang, Ching-Jung Ting, Hwei-Wen Luo, Yu-Peng Yu

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Artificial Immune System is applied as a Heuristic Algorithm for decades. Nevertheless, many of these applications took advantage of the benefit of this algorithm but seldom proposed approaches for enhancing the efficiency. In this paper, a Self-evolving Artificial Immune System is proposed via developing the T and B cell in Immune System and built a self-evolving mechanism for the complexities of different problems. In this research, it focuses on enhancing the efficiency of Clonal selection which is responsible for producing Affinities to resist the invading of Antigens. T and B cell are the main mechanisms for Clonal Selection to produce different combinations of Antibodies. Therefore, the development of T and B cell will influence the efficiency of Clonal Selection for searching better solution. Furthermore, for better cooperation of the two cells, a co-evolutional strategy is applied to coordinate for more effective productions of Antibodies. This work finally adopts Flow-shop scheduling instances in OR-library to validate the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Artificial Immune System, Clonal Selection, Flow-shop Scheduling Problems, Co-evolutional strategy

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Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga

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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.

Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: Decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu, O. O. Oyerinde

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This study examined the effect of sexuality education training programs on the knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior among secondary school adolescents in Ibadan North Local Government area of Oyo State. A total of 105 students were sampled from two schools in the Local Government area. 70 students constituted the experimental group while 35 constituted the control group. Pretest-Posttest control group quasi-experimental design was adopted. A self-developed questionnaire was used to test participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior before and after the training (α = .62, .82 and .74). Analysis indicated a significant effect of sexuality education training on participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior, a significant gender difference in knowledge of sexual risk behavior but no significant age and gender difference in the practice of sexual risk behavior. It was thus concluded that sexuality education should be taught in schools and emphasized at homes with no age or gender restrictions.

Keywords: Early adolescent, health risk, sexual risk behavior, sexuality education.

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: Decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability.

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Authors: Vineet Kansal

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Enterprise Wide Information Systems (EWIS) implementation involves the entire business and will require changes throughout the firm. Because of the scope, complexity and continuous nature of ERP, the project-based approach to managing the implementation process resulted in failure rates of between 60% and 80%. In recent years ERP systems have received much attention. The organizational relevance and risk of ERP projects make it important for organizations to focus on ways to make ERP implementation successful. Once these systems are in place, however, their performance depends on the identified macro variables viz. 'Business Process', 'Decision Making' and 'Individual / Group working'. The questionnaire was designed and administered. The responses from 92 organizations were compiled. The relationship of these variables with EWIS performance is analyzed using inferential statistical measurements. The study helps to understand the performance of model presented. The study suggested in keeping away from the calamities and thereby giving the necessary competitive edge. Whenever some discrepancy is identified during the process of performance appraisal care has to be taken to draft necessary preventive measures. If all these measures are taken care off then the EWIS performance will definitely deliver the results.

Keywords: Enterprise Systems, performance, technology

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Authors: MP. Mulaudzi, MA. Petersen, J. Mukuddem-Petersen , IM. Schoeman, B. de Waal, JM. Manale

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This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).

Keywords: Investors; Jump Diffusion Process, Structured Mortgage Products, Treasuries, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Tranching Risk, Counterparty Risk, Value-at-Risk, Swaps-at-Risk, Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

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Authors: Mohammed S. Assiri

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In EFL programs, rating scales used in writing assessment are often constructed by intuition. Intuition-based scales tend to provide inaccurate and divisive ratings of learners’ writing performance. Hence, following an empirical approach, this study attempted to develop a rating scale for elementary-level writing at an EFL program in Saudi Arabia. Towards this goal, 98 students’ essays were scored and then coded using comprehensive taxonomy of writing constructs and their measures. An automatic linear modeling was run to find out which measures would best predict essay scores. A nonparametric ANOVA, the Kruskal-Wallis test, was then used to determine which measures could best differentiate among scoring levels. Findings indicated that there were certain measures that could serve as either good predictors of essay scores or differentiators among scoring levels, or both. The main conclusion was that a rating scale can be empirically developed using predictive and discriminative statistical tests.

Keywords: Analytic scoring, rating scales, writing assessment, writing performance.

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Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

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Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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This paper presents an original application of multiple criteria decision making analysis theory to the evaluation of aircraft selection problem. The selection of an optimal, efficient and reliable fleet, network and operations planning policy is one of the most important factors in aircraft selection problem. Given that decision making in aircraft selection involves the consideration of a number of opposite criteria and possible solutions, such a selection can be considered as a multiple criteria decision making analysis problem. This study presents a new integrated approach to decision making by considering the multiple criteria utility theory and the maximal regret minimization theory methods as well as aircraft technical, economical, and environmental aspects. Multiple criteria decision making analysis method uses different normalization techniques to allow criteria to be aggregated with qualitative and quantitative data of the decision problem. Therefore, selecting a suitable normalization technique for the model is also a challenge to provide data aggregation for the aircraft selection problem. To compare the impact of different normalization techniques on the decision problem, the vector, linear (sum), linear (max), and linear (max-min) data normalization techniques were identified to evaluate aircraft selection problem. As a logical implication of the proposed approach, it enhances the decision making process through enabling the decision maker to: (i) use higher level knowledge regarding the selection of criteria weights and the proposed technique, (ii) estimate the ranking of an alternative, under different data normalization techniques and integrated criteria weights after a posteriori analysis of the final rankings of alternatives. A set of commercial passenger aircraft were considered in order to illustrate the proposed approach. The obtained results of the proposed approach were compared using Spearman's rho tests. An analysis of the final rank stability with respect to the changes in criteria weights was also performed so as to assess the sensitivity of the alternative rankings obtained by the application of different data normalization techniques and the proposed approach.

Keywords: Normalization Techniques, Aircraft Selection, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA

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Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

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Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

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Authors: Vasudha Bhatnagar, Ahmed Sultan Al-Hegami, Naveen Kumar

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Rule Discovery is an important technique for mining knowledge from large databases. Use of objective measures for discovering interesting rules leads to another data mining problem, although of reduced complexity. Data mining researchers have studied subjective measures of interestingness to reduce the volume of discovered rules to ultimately improve the overall efficiency of KDD process. In this paper we study novelty of the discovered rules as a subjective measure of interestingness. We propose a hybrid approach based on both objective and subjective measures to quantify novelty of the discovered rules in terms of their deviations from the known rules (knowledge). We analyze the types of deviation that can arise between two rules and categorize the discovered rules according to the user specified threshold. We implement the proposed framework and experiment with some public datasets. The experimental results are promising.

Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), Interestingness, Subjective Measures, Novelty Index.

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Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

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In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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