Search results for: Safety and health model

Authors: Junaid Rashid, Waqar Mehmood, Muhammad Wasif Nisar

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This survey paper shows the recent state of model comparison as it’s applies to Model Driven engineering. In Model Driven Engineering to calculate the difference between the models is a very important and challenging task. There are number of tasks involved in model differencing that firstly starts with identifying and matching the elements of the model. In this paper, we discuss how model matching is accomplished, the strategies, techniques and the types of the model. We also discuss the future direction. We found out that many of the latest model comparison strategies are geared near enabling Meta model and similarity based matching. Therefore model versioning is the most dominant application of the model comparison. Recently to work on comparison for versioning has begun to deteriorate, giving way to different applications. Ultimately there is wide change among the tools in the measure of client exertion needed to perform model comparisons, as some require more push to encourage more sweeping statement and expressive force.

Keywords: Model comparison, model clone detection, model versioning, EMF Model, model diff.

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Authors: A. Mirrashid, M. Khoshbin, A. Atghaei, H. Shahbazi

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In various industries, smoke and fire are two of the most important threats in the workplace. One of the common methods for detecting smoke and fire is the use of infrared thermal and smoke sensors, which cannot be used in outdoor applications. Therefore, the use of vision-based methods seems necessary. The problem of smoke and fire detection is spatiotemporal and requires spatiotemporal solutions. This paper presents a method that uses spatial features along with temporal-based features to detect smoke and fire in the scene. It consists of three main parts; the task of each part is to reduce the error of the previous part so that the final model has a robust performance. This method also uses transformer modules to increase the accuracy of the model. The results of our model show the proper performance of the proposed approach in solving the problem of smoke and fire detection and can be used to increase workplace safety.

Keywords: Attention, fire detection, smoke detection, spatiotemporal.

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Authors: Martin Juhas, Bohuslava Juhasova, Igor Halenar, Andrej Elias

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This article deals with the possibility of increasing efficiency, reliability and safety of the system for teledosimetric data collection management and their evaluation as a part of complex study for activity “Research of data collection, their measurement and evaluation with mobile and autonomous units” within project “Research of monitoring and evaluation of non-standard conditions in the area of nuclear power plants”. Possible weaknesses in existing system are identified. A study of available cluster solutions with possibility of their deploying to analysed system is presented

Keywords: Teledosimetric data, efficiency, reliability, safety, cluster solution.

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Authors: Ventzas Dimitrios, Petropoulos George

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The paper presents a compressor anti-surge control system, that results in maximizing compressor throughput with pressure standard deviation reduction, increased safety margin between design point and surge limit line and avoiding possible machine surge. Alternative control strategies are presented.

Keywords: Anti-surge, control, compressor, PID control, safety, fault tolerance, start-up, ESD.

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Authors: M. Tufekci, C. Guven

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In Automotive Industry, sliding door systems that are also used as body closures are safety members. Extreme product tests are realized to prevent failures in design process, but these tests realized experimentally result in high costs. Finite element analysis is an effective tool used for design process. These analyses are used before production of prototype for validation of design according to customer requirement. In result of this, substantial amount of time and cost is saved. Finite element model is created for geometries that are designed in 3D CAD programs. Different element types as bar, shell and solid, can be used for creating mesh model. Cheaper model can be created by selection of element type, but combination of element type that was used in model, number and geometry of element and degrees of freedom affects the analysis result. Sliding door system is a good example which used these methods for this study. Structural analysis was realized for sliding door mechanism by using FE models. As well, physical tests that have same boundary conditions with FE models were realized. Comparison study for these element types, were done regarding test and analyses results then optimum combination was achieved.

Keywords: Finite Element Analysis, Sliding Door Mechanism, Element Type, Structural Analysis.

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

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reliability-based methodology for the assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete (R/C) structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for R/C structural elements were verified by the results obtained through deterministic methods. The outcomes of the reliability-based analysis were compared against currently adopted safety limits that are incorporated in the reliability indices β’s, according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) associated with the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the R/C elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: Concrete Structures, FORM, Monte Carlo Simulation, Structural Reliability.

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Authors: Devdutt, M. L. Aggarwal

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Semi-active Fuzzy control of quarter car system having three degrees of freedom and assembled with magneto-rheological (MR) shock absorber is studied in present paper. First, experimental work was performed on an MR shock absorber under different excitation conditions to obtain force-displacement and force-velocity curves. Then, for the application of experimental data in semi-active quarter car system, a polynomial model was selected. Finally, Fuzzy logic controller was designed having the combination of Forward fuzzy controller and Inverse fuzzy controller for integration in secondary suspension system of concerned model. The proposed controlled quarter car model was compared with uncontrolled system using simulation work under bump type of road excitation. Results obtained by simulation work shows the effectiveness of fuzzy controlled suspension system in improving the ride comfort and safety of travelling passengers compared to uncontrolled suspension system.

Keywords: MR shock absorber, three degrees of freedom, quarter car model, fuzzy controller.

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Authors: Jatin Kumar Choudhary, Naren Rayala, Abbas Eslami Kiasari, Fahimeh Jafari

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Great Britain has one of the safest road networks in the world. However, the consequences of any death or serious injury are devastating for loved ones, as well as for those who help the severely injured. This paper aims to analyse Great Britain's road safety situation and show the response measures for areas where the total damage caused by accidents can be significantly and quickly reduced. For the past 30 years, the UK has had a good record in reducing fatalities over the past 30 years, there is still a considerable number of road deaths. The government continues to scale back road deaths empowering responsible road users by identifying and prosecuting the parameters that make the roads less safe. This study represents an exploratory analysis with deep insights which could provide policy makers with invaluable insights into how accidents happen and how they can be mitigated. We use STATS19 data published by the UK government. Since we need more information about locations which is not provided in STATA19, we first expand the features of the dataset using OpenStreetMap and Visual Crossing. This paper also provides a discussion regarding new road safety methods.

Keywords: Road safety, data analysis, OpenStreetMap, feature expanding.

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Authors: Geon-Woo Kim, Do-Woo Kim, Jun-Ho Lee, Jin-Beon Hwang, Jong-Wook Han

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As various mobile sensing technologies, remote control and ubiquitous infrastructure are developing and expectations on quality of life are increasing, a lot of researches and developments on home network technologies and services are actively on going, Until now, we have focused on how to provide users with high-level home network services, while not many researches on home network security for guaranteeing safety are progressing. So, in this paper, we propose an access control model specific to home network that provides various kinds of users with home network services up one-s characteristics and features, and protects home network systems from illegal/unnecessary accesses or intrusions.

Keywords: Home network security, RBAC, access control, authentication.

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Authors: Jih-Rue Pan, Feng-Chuan Pan

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Today-s healthcare industries had become more patient-centric than profession-centric, from which the issues of quality of healthcare and the patient safety are the major concerns in the modern healthcare facilities. An unplanned extubation (UE) may be detrimental to the patient-s life, and thus is one of the major indexes of patient safety and healthcare quality. A high UE rate not only defeated the healthcare quality as well as the patient safety policy but also the nurses- morality, and job satisfaction. The UE problem in a psychiatric hospital is unique and may be a tough challenge for the healthcare professionals for the patients were mostly lacking communication capabilities. We reported with this essay a particular project that was organized to reduce the UE rate from the current 2.3% to a lower and satisfactory level in the long-term care units of a psychiatric hospital. The project was conducted between March 1st, 2011 and August 31st, 2011. Based on the error information gathered from varied units of the hospital, the team analyzed the root causes with possible solutions proposed to the meetings. Four solutions were then concluded with consensus and launched to the units in question. The UE rate was now reduced to a level of 0.17%. Experience from this project, the procedure and the tools adopted would be good reference to other hospitals.

Keywords: Unplanned extubation, patient safety, error information

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Authors: Bassem Roushdy, Nahed Sobhy, Abdelrhim Abdelhamid, Ahmed Mahmoud

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Most papers model Joint Replenishment Problem (JRP) as a (kT,S) where kT is a multiple value for a common review period T,and S is a predefined order up to level. In general the (T,S) policy is characterized by a long out of control period which requires a large amount of safety stock compared to the (R,Q) policy. In this paper a probabilistic model is built where an item, call it item(i), with the shortest order time between interval (T)is modeled under (R,Q) policy and its inventory is continuously reviewed, while the rest of items (j) are periodically reviewed at a definite time corresponding to item

Keywords: Inventory management, Joint replenishment, policy evaluation, stochastic process

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Authors: Maha Jazouli

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Suicide is one of the leading causes of death among prisoners, both in Canada and internationally. In recent years, rates of attempts of suicide and self-harm suicide have increased, with hangings being the most frequently used method. The objective of this article is to propose a method to automatically detect suicidal behaviors in real time. We present a gesture recognition system that consists of three modules: model-based movement tracking, feature extraction, and gesture recognition using machine learning algorithms (MLA). Tests show that the proposed system gives satisfactory results. This smart video surveillance system can help assist staff responsible for the safety and health of inmates by alerting them when suicidal behavior is detected, which helps reduce mortality rates and save lives.

Keywords: Suicide detection, Kinect Azure, RGB-D camera, SVM, gesture recognition.

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Authors: Nasyairi Mat Nasir, Zulhabri Ismail, Faridah Ismail, Sharifah Nur Aina Syed Alwee, Masnizan Che Mat

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The utilisation of Industrial Building System (IBS) in construction industry will lead to a safe site condition since minimum numbers of workers are required to be on-site, timely material delivery, systematic component storage, reduction of construction material and waste. These matters are being promoted in the Construction Industry Master Plan (CIMP 2006-2015). However, the enabling factors of IBS that will foster a safer working environment are indefinite; on that basis a research has been conducted. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and identify the relevant factors towards safety improvement for IBS. A quantitative research by way of questionnaire surveys have been conducted to 314 construction companies. The target group was Grade 5 to Grade 7 contractors registered with Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) which specialise in IBS. The findings disclosed seven factors linked to the safety improvement of IBS construction site in Malaysia. The factors were historical, economic, psychological, technical, procedural, organisational and the environmental factors. From the findings, a psychological factor ranked as the highest and most crucial factor contributing to safer IBS construction site. The psychological factor included the self-awareness and influences from workmates behaviour. Followed by organisational factors, where project management style will encourage the safety efforts. From the procedural factors, it was also found that training was one of the significant factors to improve safety culture of IBS construction site. Another important finding that formed as a part of the environmental factor was storage of IBS components, in which proper planning of the layout would able to contribute to a safer site condition. To conclude, in order to improve safety of IBS construction site, a welltrained and skilled workers are required for IBS projects, thus proper training is permissible and should be emphasised.

Keywords: Enabling Factors, Industrialised Building System, Safety Improvement.

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Authors: Al-bdour, A. Ali., Ellisha Nasruddin., Soh Keng Lin

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This study attempts to investigate the relationship between internal CSR practices and organizational commitment based on the social exchange theory (SET). Specifically, we examine the impact of five dimensions of internal CSR practices on organizational commitment: health and safety, human rights, training and education, work life balance and workplace diversity. The proposed model was tested on a sample of 336 frontline employees within the banking sector in Jordan. Results showed that all internal CSR dimensions are significantly and positively related to affective and normative commitment. In addition, the findings of this study indicate that all internal CSR dimensions did not have a significant relationship with continuance commitment. Limitations of the study, directions for future research, and implications of the findings are discussed.

Keywords: Internal CSR, organizational commitment, Jordan, banking sector.

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Authors: Jae-Young Lee, Woo-Young Jung, Myeong-Jun Nam

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Water hammer is a hydraulic transient problem which is commonly encountered in the penstocks of hydropower plants. The numerical model was developed to estimate the transient behavior of pressure waves in pipe systems. The computational algorithm was proposed to model the water hammer phenomenon in a pipe system with pump shutdown at midstream and sudden valve closure at downstream. To predict the pressure head and flow velocity as a function of time as a result of rapidly closing a valve and pump shutdown, two boundary conditions at the ends considering pump operation and valve control can be implemented as specified equations of the pressure head and flow velocity based on the characteristics method. It was shown that the effects of transient flow make it determine the needs for protection devices, such as surge tanks, surge relief valves, or air valves, at various points in the system against overpressure and low pressure. It produced reasonably good performance with the results of the proposed transient model for pipeline systems. The proposed numerical model can be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydropower plants due to water hammer.

Keywords: Water hammer, hydraulic transient, pipe systems, characteristics method.

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

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Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population.

Keywords: Backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability.

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Authors: Wookyung Baik, Seungchan Lee, Choongmin Jeong, Siwoo Kim, Myungwon Suh

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Development of motor car safety devices has reduced fatality rates in car accidents. Yet despite this increase in car safety, neck injuries resulting from rear impact collisions, particularly at low speed, remain a primary concern. In this study, FEA(Finite Element Analysis) of seat was performed to evaluate neck injuries in rear impact. And the FEA result was verified by comparison with the actual test results. The dummy used in FE model and actual test is BioRID II which is regarded suitable for rear impact collision analysis. A threshold of the BioRID II neck injury indicators was also proposed to upgrade seat performance in order to reduce whiplash injury. To optimize the seat for a low-speed rear impact collision, a method was proposed, which is multi-objective optimization idea using DOE (Design of Experiments) results.

Keywords: Whiplash injury, Dynamic assessment, Finite element method, Optimization, DOE (Design of Experiments), WSM (Weighed Sum Method).

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Authors: Y. Atilgan Şengül

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Health information technologies promise higher quality, safer care and much more for both patients and professionals. Despite their promise, they are costly to develop and difficult to implement. On the other hand, user acceptance and usage determine the success of implemented information technology in healthcare. This study provides a model to understand health professionals’ perception and expectation of health information technology. Extensive literature review has been conducted to determine the main factors to be measured. A questionnaire has been designed as a measurement model and submitted to the personnel of an in vitro fertilization clinic. The respondents’ degree of agreement according to five-point Likert scale was 72% for convenient access to data and 69.4% for the importance of data security. There was a significant difference in acceptance of electronic data storage for female respondents. Also, other significant differences between professions were obtained.

Keywords: Healthcare, health informatics, medical record system, questionnaire.

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Authors: Marilena Ianculescu, Adriana Alexandru

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Internet of Health Things (IoHT) has already proved to be a persuasive means to support a proper assessment of the living conditions by collecting a huge variety of data. For a customized health management of a senior patient, IoHT provides the capacity to build a dynamic solution for sustaining the shift inside the patient-physician relationship by allowing a real-time and continuous remote monitoring of the health status, well-being, safety and activities of the senior, especially in a non-clinical environment. Thus, is created a win-win solution in which both the patient and the physician enhance their involvement and shared decision-making, with significant outcomes. Health monitoring systems in smart environments are becoming a viable alternative to traditional healthcare solutions. The ongoing “Non-invasive monitoring and health assessment of the elderly in a smart environment (RO-SmartAgeing)” project aims to demonstrate that the existence of complete and accurate information is critical for assessing the health condition of the seniors, improving wellbeing and quality of life in relation to health. The researches performed inside the project aim to highlight how the management of IoHT devices connected to the RO-SmartAgeing platform in a secure way by using a role-based access control system, can allow the physicians to provide health services at a high level of efficiency and accessibility, which were previously only available in hospitals. The project aims to identify deficient aspects in the provision of health services tailored to a senior patient’s specificity and to offer a more comprehensive perspective of proactive and preventive medical acts.

Keywords: Health management, Internet of Health Things, remote monitoring, senior patient.

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Authors: Excellence Favor, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

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Access to information holds the key to the empowerment of everybody despite where they are living. This research has been carried out in respect of the people living in developing countries, considering their plight and complex geographical, demographic, social-economic conditions surrounding the areas they live, which hinder access to information and of professionals providing services such as medical workers, which has led to high death rates and development stagnation. Research on Unified Communications and Integrated Collaborations (UCIC) system in the health sector of developing countries aims at creating a possible solution of bridging the digital canyon among the communities. The system is meant to deliver services in a seamless manner to assist health workers situated anywhere to be accessed easily and access information which will enhance service delivery. The proposed UCIC provides the most immersive telepresence experience for one-to-one or many-to-many meetings. Extending to locations anywhere in the world, the transformative platform delivers Ultra-low operating costs through the use of general purpose networks and using special lenses and track systems. The essence of this study is to create a security model for the deployment of the UCIC system in the health sector of developing countries. The model approach used for building the UCIC system security carefully considers the specific requirements for the health sector environment organization such as data centre, national, regional and district hospitals, and health centers IV, III, II and I and then builds the single best possible secure network to meet their needs. The security model demonstrates on how the components of the UCIC system will be protected physically and logically in the health sector environment. The UCIC system once adopted and implemented correctly will bring enhancement to the speed and quality of services offered by health workers. The capacities of UCIC will help health workers shorten decision cycles, accelerate service delivery and save lives by speeding access to information and by making it possible for all health workers and patients to collaborate ubiquitously.

Keywords: Developing Countries, Health Sector Environment, Security, Unified Communications and Integrated Collaborations.

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Authors: D.O. Omondi, M.K. Walingo, G.M. Mbagaya, L.O.A. Othuon

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Many studies have applied the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) in predicting health behaviors among unique populations. However, a new paradigm is emerging where focus is now directed to modification and expansion of the TPB model rather than utilization of the traditional theory. This review proposes new models modified from the Theory of Planned Behavior and suggest an appropriate study design that can be used to test the models within physical activity and dietary practice domains among Type 2 diabetics in Kenya. The review was conducted by means of literature search in the field of nutrition behavior, health psychology and mixed methods using predetermined key words. The results identify pre-intention and post intention gaps within the TPB model that need to be filled. Additional psychosocial factors are proposed to be included in the TPB model to generate new models and the efficacy of these models tested using mixed methods design.

Keywords: Physical activity, diet, Type 2 diabetes, behaviorchange theory, model.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: Prediction, operation monitoring, on-line data, nonlinear statistical methods, empirical model.

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Authors: Ismail Muratoglu, Ahmet Meyveci, Abdurrahman Tuncer, Erkan Demirci

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This study is dedicated to the analysis of the problems of occupational safety in Turkey, Italy and Poland. The need analysis was applied to three different countries which are Turkey; 4, Poland; 1, Italy; 1 state. The number of the subjects is 891 in Turkey. The number of the subjects is 26 in Italy and the number of the subjects is 19 in Poland. The total number of samples of study is 936. Four different forms (Job Security Experts Form, Student Form, Teacher Form and Company Form) were applied. Results of experts of job security forms are rate of 7.1%. Then, the students’ forms are rate of 34.3%, teacher or instructor forms are rate of 9.9%. The last corporation forms are rate of 48.7%.

Keywords: Europe, need analysis, occupational safety, Turkey, vocational education.

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Authors: G. Rezai, P.K.Teng, Z. Mohamed, M.N Shamsudin

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Changing in consumers lifestyles and food consumption patterns provide a great opportunity in developing the functional food sector in Malaysia. There is only a little knowledge about whether Malaysian consumers are aware of functional food and if so what image consumers have of this product. The objective of this research is to determine the extent to which selected socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes influence consumers- awareness of functional food. A survey was conducted in the Klang Valley, Malaysia where 439 respondents were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The result shows that most respondents have a positive attitude towards functional food. For the binary logistic estimation, the results indicate that age, income and other factors such as concern about food safety, subscribing to cooking or health magazines, being a vegetarian and consumers who have been involved in a food production company significantly influence Malaysian consumers- awareness towards functional food.

Keywords: Binary logistic model, functional foods, knowledge and awareness, perception

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: Portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique.

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Authors: Tohru Kawabe

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In this paper, a new SMC (Sliding Mode Control) method with MP (Model Predictive Control) integral action for the slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method introduce the integral term with standard SMC gain , where the integral gain is optimized for each control period by the MPC algorithms. The aim of this method is to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ratio. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Sliding Mode Control, Model Predictive Control, Integral Action, Electric Vehicle, Slip suppression.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: W. Sutopo, M. Hisjam, Yuniaristanto

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In general, small-scale vegetables farmers experience problems in improving the safety and quality of vegetables supplied to high-class consumers in modern retailers. They also lack of information to access market. The farmers group and/or cooperative (FGC) should be able to assist its members by providing training in handling and packing vegetables and enhancing marketing capabilities to sell commodities to the modern retailers. This study proposes an agri-food supply chain (ASC) model that involves the corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities to cultivate the capabilities of farmers to access market. Multi period ASC model is formulated as Weighted Goal Programming (WGP) to analyze the impacts of CSR programs to empower the FGCs in managing the small-scale vegetables farmers. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs in order to maximize the four goals to be achieved in the CSR programs.

Keywords: agri-food supply chain, corporate social responsibility, small-scale vegetables farmers, weighted goal programming.

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Authors: Badarch Tuyatsetseg

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This paper presents parametric probability density models for call holding times (CHTs) into emergency call center based on the actual data collected for over a week in the public Emergency Information Network (EIN) in Mongolia. When the set of chosen candidates of Gamma distribution family is fitted to the call holding time data, it is observed that the whole area in the CHT empirical histogram is underestimated due to spikes of higher probability and long tails of lower probability in the histogram. Therefore, we provide the Gaussian parametric model of a mixture of lognormal distributions with explicit analytical expressions for the modeling of CHTs of PSNs. Finally, we show that the CHTs for PSNs are fitted reasonably by a mixture of lognormal distributions via the simulation of expectation maximization algorithm. This result is significant as it expresses a useful mathematical tool in an explicit manner of a mixture of lognormal distributions.

Keywords: A mixture of lognormal distributions, modeling call holding times, public safety network.

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