Search results for: Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: Lazim Abdullah, N orhanadiah Zam

Abstract:

Increasing number of vehicles and lack of awareness among road users may lead to road accidents. However no specific literature was found to rank vehicles involved in accidents based on fuzzy variables of road users. This paper proposes a ranking of four selected motor vehicles involved in road accidents. Human and non-human factors that normally linked with road accidents are considered for ranking. The imprecision or vagueness inherent in the subjective assessment of the experts has led the application of fuzzy sets theory to deal with ranking problems. Data in form of linguistic variables were collected from three authorised personnel of three Malaysian Government agencies. The Multi Criteria Decision Making, fuzzy TOPSIS was applied in computational procedures. From the analysis, it shows that motorcycles vehicles yielded the highest closeness coefficient at 0.6225. A ranking can be drawn using the magnitude of closeness coefficient. It was indicated that the motorcycles recorded the first rank.

Keywords: Road accidents, decision making, closeness coefficient, fuzzy number

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1490

Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit

Abstract:

The objectives of the study were to determine the marketing mix factors that influencing tourist’s destination decision making for cultural tourism in the Chonburi province. Both quantitative and qualitative data were applied in this study. The samples of 400 cases for quantitative analysis were tourists (both Thai and foreign) who were interested in cultural tourism in the Chonburi province, and traveled to cultural sites in Chonburi and 14 representatives from provincial tourism committee of Chonburi and local tourism experts. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The study found that Thai and foreign tourists are influenced by different important marketing mix factors. The important factors for Thai respondents were physical evidence, price, people, and place at high importance level. For foreign respondents, physical evidence, price, people, and process were high importance level, whereas, product, place and promotion were moderate importance level.

Keywords: Chonburi Province, Decision Making for cultural tourism, Marketing Mixed.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3545

Authors: Indiramma M., K. R. Anandakumar

Abstract:

Trust management and Reputation models are becoming integral part of Internet based applications such as CSCW, E-commerce and Grid Computing. Also the trust dimension is a significant social structure and key to social relations within a collaborative community. Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) is a difficult task in the context of distributed environment (information across different geographical locations) and multidisciplinary decisions are involved such as Virtual Organization (VO). To aid team decision making in VO, Decision Support System and social network analysis approaches are integrated. In such situations social learning helps an organization in terms of relationship, team formation, partner selection etc. In this paper we focus on trust learning. Trust learning is an important activity in terms of information exchange, negotiation, collaboration and trust assessment for cooperation among virtual team members. In this paper we have proposed a reinforcement learning which enhances the trust decision making capability of interacting agents during collaboration in problem solving activity. Trust computational model with learning that we present is adapted for best alternate selection of new project in the organization. We verify our model in a multi-agent simulation where the agents in the community learn to identify trustworthy members, inconsistent behavior and conflicting behavior of agents.

Keywords: Collaborative Decision making, Trust, Multi Agent System (MAS), Bayesian Network, Reinforcement Learning.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1846

Authors: Hossein Ali Akbarpour, Fatemeh Dadkhah

Abstract:

This paper considers a multi criteria cell formation problem in Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS). Minimizing the number of voids and exceptional elements in cells simultaneously are two proposed objective functions. This problem is an Np-hard problem according to the literature, and therefore, we can-t find the optimal solution by an exact method. In this paper we developed two ant algorithms, Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Max-Min Ant System (MMAS), based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Both of them try to find the efficient solutions based on efficiency concept in DEA. Each artificial ant is considered as a Decision Making Unit (DMU). For each DMU we considered two inputs, the values of objective functions, and one output, the value of one for all of them. In order to evaluate performance of proposed methods we provided an experimental design with some empirical problem in three different sizes, small, medium and large. We defined three different criteria that show which algorithm has the best performance.

Keywords: Ant algorithm, Cellular manufacturing system, Data envelopment analysis, Efficiency

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1618

Authors: M. Mazhar Manzoor, Nasar.A, A. Sattar

Abstract:

In the open space of decision support system the mental impression of a manager-s decision has been the subject of large importance than the ordinary famous one, when helped by decision support system. Much of this study is an attempt to realize the relation of decision support system usage and decision outcomes that governs the system. For example, several researchers have proposed so many different models to analyze the linkage between decision support system processes and results of decision making. This study draws the important relation of manager-s mental approach with the use of decision support system. The findings of this paper are theoretical attempts to provide Decision Support System (DSS) in a way to exhibit and promote the learning in semi structured area. The proposed model shows the points of one-s learning improvements and maintains a theoretical approach in order to explore the DSS contribution in enhancing the decision forming and governing the system.

Keywords: Decision Support System , Learning Organization,

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1407

Authors: Jalal Haghighat Monfared, Zahra Akbari

Abstract:

Today, business executives need to have useful information to make better decisions. Banks have also been using information tools so that they can direct the decision-making process in order to achieve their desired goals by rapidly extracting information from sources with the help of business intelligence. The research seeks to investigate whether there is a relationship between the quality of decision making and the business intelligence capabilities of Mellat Bank. Each of the factors studied is divided into several components, and these and their relationships are measured by a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study consists of all managers and experts of Mellat Bank's General Departments (including 190 people) who use commercial intelligence reports. The sample size of this study was 123 randomly determined by statistical method. In this research, relevant statistical inference has been used for data analysis and hypothesis testing. In the first stage, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the normalization of the data was investigated and in the next stage, the construct validity of both variables and their resulting indexes were verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, using the structural equation modeling and Pearson's correlation coefficient, the research hypotheses were tested. The results confirmed the existence of a positive relationship between decision quality and business intelligence capabilities in Mellat Bank. Among the various capabilities, including data quality, correlation with other systems, user access, flexibility and risk management support, the flexibility of the business intelligence system was the most correlated with the dependent variable of the present research. This shows that it is necessary for Mellat Bank to pay more attention to choose the required business intelligence systems with high flexibility in terms of the ability to submit custom formatted reports. Subsequently, the quality of data on business intelligence systems showed the strongest relationship with quality of decision making. Therefore, improving the quality of data, including the source of data internally or externally, the type of data in quantitative or qualitative terms, the credibility of the data and perceptions of who uses the business intelligence system, improves the quality of decision making in Mellat Bank.

Keywords: Business intelligence, business intelligence capability, decision making, decision quality.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1310

Authors: George Yungchih Wang

Abstract:

Real options theory suggests that managerial flexibility embedded within irreversible investments can account for a significant value in project valuation. Although the argument has become the dominant focus of capital investment theory over decades, yet recent survey literature in capital budgeting indicates that corporate practitioners still do not explicitly apply real options in investment decisions. In this paper, we explore how real options decision criteria can be transformed into equivalent capital budgeting criteria under the consideration of uncertainty, assuming that underlying stochastic process follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), a mixed diffusion-jump (MX), or a mean-reverting process (MR). These equivalent valuation techniques can be readily decomposed into conventional investment rules and “option impacts", the latter of which describe the impacts on optimal investment rules with the option value considered. Based on numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, three major findings are derived. First, it is shown that real options could be successfully integrated into the mindset of conventional capital budgeting. Second, the inclusion of option impacts tends to delay investment. It is indicated that the delay effect is the most significant under a GBM process and the least significant under a MR process. Third, it is optimal to adopt the new capital budgeting criteria in investment decision-making and adopting a suboptimal investment rule without considering real options could lead to a substantial loss in value.

Keywords: real options, capital budgeting, geometric Brownianmotion, mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2713

Authors: Siti Waringin Oon, Rashidah Shuib, Siti Hawa Ali, Nik Hazlina Nik Hussain, Juwita Shaaban, Harmy Mohd Yusoff

Abstract:

This paper explores the knowledge and attitude of women and men in decision making on pap smear screening. This qualitative study recruited 52 respondents with 44 women and 8 men, using the purposive sampling with snowballing technique through indepth interviews. This study demonstrates several key findings: Female respondents have better knowledge compared to male. Most of the women perceived that pap smear screening is beneficial and important, but to proceed with the test is still doubtful. Male respondents were supportive in terms of sending their spouses to the health facilities or give more freedom to their wives to choose and making decision on their own health due to prominent reason that women know best on their own health. It is expected that the results from this study will provide useful guideline for healthcare providers to prepare any action/intervention to provide an extensive education to improve people-s knowledge and attitude towards pap smear.

Keywords: Attitude, decision making, knowledge, pap smearscreening..

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2529

Authors: Jin-Bao Zhao, Wei Deng

Abstract:

This paper aims at developing a multilevel fuzzy decision support model for urban rail transit planning schemes in China under the background that China is presently experiencing an unprecedented construction of urban rail transit. In this study, an appropriate model using multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is developed. In the decision process, the followings are considered as the influential objectives: traveler attraction, environment protection, project feasibility and operation. In addition, consistent matrix analysis method is used to determine the weights between objectives and the weights between the objectives- sub-indictors, which reduces the work caused by repeated establishment of the decision matrix on the basis of ensuring the consistency of decision matrix. The application results show that multilevel fuzzy decision model can perfectly deal with the multivariable and multilevel decision process, which is particularly useful in the resolution of multilevel decision-making problem of urban rail transit planning schemes.

Keywords: Urban rail transit, planning schemes, multilevel fuzzy decision support model, consistent matrix analysis

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1267

Authors: Mikel Alonso López, María Francisca Blasco López, Víctor Molero Ayala

Abstract:

The present study explains the somatic marker theory of Antonio Damasio, which indicates that when making a decision, the stored or possible future scenarios (future memory) images allow people to feel for a moment what would happen when they make a choice, and how this is emotionally marked. This process can be conscious or unconscious. The development of new Neuromarketing techniques such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), carries a greater understanding of how the brain functions and consumer behavior. In the results observed in different studies using fMRI, the evidence suggests that the somatic marker and future memories influence the decision-making process, adding a positive or negative emotional component to the options. This would mean that all decisions would involve a present emotional component, with a rational cost-benefit analysis that can be performed later.

Keywords: Emotions, decision making, somatic marker, consumer´s brain.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2083

Authors: José M. Merigó, Montserrat Casanovas

Abstract:

We study the problem of decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure. We analyze the previous work developed by Yager about using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the Dempster-Shafer decision process. We discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order in the OWA operator for the cases where the smallest value is the best result. We suggest the introduction of the ordered weighted geometric (OWG) operator in the Dempster-Shafer framework. In this case, we also discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order and we find that it is completely necessary as the OWG operator cannot aggregate negative numbers. Finally, we give an illustrative example where we can see the different results obtained by using the OWA, the Ascending OWA (AOWA), the OWG and the Ascending OWG (AOWG) operator.

Keywords: Decision making, aggregation operators, Dempster- Shafer theory of evidence, Uncertainty, OWA operator, OWG operator.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1486

Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

Abstract:

Every organization is continually subject to new damages and threats which can be resulted from their operations or their goal accomplishment. Methods of providing the security of space and applied tools have been widely changed with increasing application and development of information technology (IT). From this viewpoint, information security management systems were evolved to construct and prevent reiterating the experienced methods. In general, the correct response in information security management systems requires correct decision making, which in turn requires the comprehensive effort of managers and everyone involved in each plan or decision making. Obviously, all aspects of work or decision are not defined in all decision making conditions; therefore, the possible or certain risks should be considered when making decisions. This is the subject of risk management and it can influence the decisions. Investigation of different approaches in the field of risk management demonstrates their progress from quantitative to qualitative methods with a process approach.

Keywords: Risk Management, Information Security, Methodology, Probability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1490

Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

Abstract:

An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: Boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

The early eighties saw the rise of a new research trend in several prestigious journals, mainly articles that related emotions with the decision-making processes of the consumer, and stopped treating them as external elements. That is why we ask questions such as: what are emotions? Are there different types of emotions? What components do they have? Which theories exist about them? In this study, we will review the main theories and components of emotion analysing the cognitive factor and the different emotional states that are generally recognizable with a focus in the classic debate as to whether they occur before the cognitive process or the affective process.

Keywords: Emotion, consumer behaviour, feelings, decision making.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1548

Authors: José M. Merigó, Montserrat Casanovas

Abstract:

We present the induced generalized hybrid averaging (IGHA) operator. It is a new aggregation operator that generalizes the hybrid averaging (HA) by using generalized means and order inducing variables. With this formulation, we get a wide range of mean operators such as the induced HA (IHA), the induced hybrid quadratic averaging (IHQA), the HA, etc. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator and the weighted average (WA) are included as special cases of the HA operator. Therefore, with this generalization we can obtain a wide range of aggregation operators such as the induced generalized OWA (IGOWA), the generalized OWA (GOWA), etc. We further generalize the IGHA operator by using quasi-arithmetic means. Then, we get the Quasi-IHA operator. Finally, we also develop an illustrative example of the new approach in a financial decision making problem. The main advantage of the IGHA is that it gives a more complete view of the decision problem to the decision maker because it considers a wide range of situations depending on the operator used.

Keywords: Decision making, Aggregation operators, OWA operator, Generalized means, Selection of investments.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1453

Authors: Hichem Omrani, Philippe Gerber, Patrick Bousch

Abstract:

The problem of Small Area Estimation (SAE) is complex because of various information sources and insufficient data. In this paper, an approach for SAE is presented for decision-making at national, regional and local level. We propose an Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) as an estimator in order to combine several information sources to evaluate various indicators. First, we present the urban audit project and its environmental, social and economic indicators. Secondly, we propose an approach for decision making in order to estimate indicators. An application is used to validate the theoretical proposal. Finally, a decision support system is presented based on open-source environment.

Keywords: Small area estimation, statistical method, sampling, empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), decision-making.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1663

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: System of system approach, decision making, cross-border, infrastructure project.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1752

Authors: S. Turkan

Abstract:

In this paper, the Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises data in 2014 were analyzed by data envelopment analysis. Data envelopment analysis is used to detect efficient decision-making units such as universities, hospitals, schools etc. by using inputs and outputs. The decision-making units in this study are enterprises. To detect efficient enterprises, some financial ratios are determined as inputs and outputs. For this reason, financial indicators related to productivity of enterprises are considered. The efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprises are detected via super efficiency model. According to the results, it is said that Mercedes-Benz is the most efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprise in Turkey.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, super efficiency, financial ratios, BCC model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 832

Authors: Marina Diković

Abstract:

By giving personal opinions, suggestions and criticism through e-democracy, young people can reinforce the adoption of decisions which they have an impact on. The purpose of this research was to examine the opinion of university students about the possibility of their decision-making by using information and communication technology (ICT). The questionnaire examined young people's values and behaviour associated with e-democracy and the related decision-making. Students are most active online when it comes to finding information connected with their academic responsibilities, but less frequently take part in democratic processes in society, both at the national and local level. E-democracy as a tool can be learned in programmes of Human Rights Education and Citizenship Education. 

Keywords: Active citizens, e-democracy, information and communication technology, university students.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1661

Authors: Endri Rama, Genci Capi, Shigenori Kawahara

Abstract:

The mobile robot ability to navigate autonomously in its environment is very important. Even though the advances in technology, robot self-localization and goal directed navigation in complex environments are still challenging tasks. In this article, we propose a novel method for robot navigation based on rat’s brain signals (Local Field Potentials). It has been well known that rats accurately and rapidly navigate in a complex space by localizing themselves in reference to the surrounding environmental cues. As the first step to incorporate the rat’s navigation strategy into the robot control, we analyzed the rats’ strategies while it navigates in a multiple Y-maze, and recorded Local Field Potentials (LFPs) simultaneously from three brain regions. Next, we processed the LFPs, and the extracted features were used as an input in the artificial neural network to predict the rat’s next location, especially in the decision-making moment, in Y-junctions. We developed an algorithm by which the robot learned to imitate the rat’s decision-making by mapping the rat’s brain signals into its own actions. Finally, the robot learned to integrate the internal states as well as external sensors in order to localize and navigate in the complex environment.

Keywords: Brain machine interface, decision-making, local field potentials, mobile robot, navigation, neural network, rat, signal processing.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1421

Authors: Kuyucu Helvacioglu Asli Deniz, Tektas Arzu

Abstract:

European Union candidate status provides a strong motivation for decision-making in the candidate countries in shaping the regional development policy where there is an envisioned transfer of power from center to the periphery. The process of Europeanization anticipates the candidate countries configure their regional institutional templates in the context of the requirements of the European Union policies and introduces new instruments of incentive framework of enlargement to be employed in regional development schemes. It is observed that the contribution of the local actors to the decision making in the design of the allocation architectures enhances the efficiency of the funds and increases the positive effects of the projects funded under the regional development objectives. This study aims at exploring the performances of the three regional development grant schemes in Turkey, established and allocated under the pre-accession process with a special emphasis given to the roles of the national and local actors in decision-making for regional development. Efficiency analyses have been conducted using the DEA methodology which has proved to be a superior method in comparative efficiency and benchmarking measurements. The findings of this study as parallel to similar international studies, provides that the participation of the local actors to the decision-making in funding contributes both to the quality and the efficiency of the projects funded under the EU schemes.

Keywords: Efficiency, European Union Funds, RegionalDevelopment, Turkey

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1594

Authors: Chih-Cheng Chen, Meng-Lung Lin, Yung-Tan Lee, Tien-Tze Chen

Abstract:

The rotation of starting pitchers is a strategic issue which has a significant impact on the performance of a professional team. Choosing an optimal starting pitcher from among many alternatives is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In this study, a model using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is proposed with which to arrange the starting pitcher rotation for teams of the Chinese Professional Baseball League. The AHP is used to analyze the structure of the starting pitcher selection problem and to determine the weights of the criteria, while the TOPSIS method is used to make the final ranking. An empirical analysis is conducted to illustrate the utilization of the model for the starting pitcher rotation problem. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Keywords: AHP, TOPSIS, starting pitcher rotation, CPBL

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2312

Authors: Petr Morávek, Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

In practice, we often come across situations where it is necessary to make decisions based on incomplete or uncertain data. In control systems it may be due to the unknown exact mathematical model, or its excessive complexity (e.g. nonlinearity) when it is necessary to simplify it, respectively, to solve it using a rule base. In the case of databases, searching data we compare a similarity measure with of the requirements of the selection with stored data, where both the select query and the data itself may contain vague terms, for example in the form of linguistic qualifiers. In this paper, we focus on the processing of uncertain data in databases and demonstrate it on the example multi-criteria decision making in the selection of variants, specified by higher number of technical parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, linguistic variable, multicriteria decision

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1369

Authors: K. Majumdar, S. Datta

Abstract:

Electricity is recognized as fundamental to industrialization and improving the quality of life of the people. Harnessing the immense untapped hydropower potential in Tripura region opens avenues for growth and provides an opportunity to improve the well-being of the people of the region, while making substantial contribution to the national economy. Gumti hydro power plant generates power to mitigate the crisis of power in Tripura, India. The first unit of hydro power plant (5MW) was commissioned in June 1976 & another two units of 5 MW was commissioned simultaneously. But out of 15MW capacity at present only 8MW- 9MW power is produced from Gumti hydro power plant during rainy season. But during lean season the production reduces to 0.5MW due to shortage of water. Now, it is essential to implement some mitigation measures so that the further atrocities can be prevented and originality will be possible to restore. The decision making ability of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Concordance Analysis Techniques (CAT) are utilized to identify the better decision or solution to the present problem. Some related attributes are identified by the method of surveying within the experts and the available reports and literatures. Similar criteria are removed and ultimately seven relevant ones are identified. All the attributes are compared with each other and rated accordingly to their importance over the other with the help of Pair wise Comparison Matrix. In the present investigation different mitigation measures are identified and compared to find the best suitable alternative which can solve the present uncertainties involving the existence of the Gumti Hydro Power Plant.

Keywords: Concordance Analysis Techniques, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Hydro Power.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1937

Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

Abstract:

Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives, these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of the group to reach consensus and therefore for decision to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Manpreet Singh, V. P. Agrawal, Gurmanjot Singh Bhatti

Abstract:

From the last decades, there is a significant technological advancement in the field of robotics, and a number of modular self-reconfigurable robots were introduced that can help in space exploration, bucket to stuff, search, and rescue operation during earthquake, etc. As there are numbers of self-reconfigurable robots, choosing the optimum one is always a concern for robot user since there is an increase in available features, facilities, complexity, etc. The objective of this research work is to present a multiple attribute decision making based methodology for coding, evaluation, comparison ranking and selection of modular self-reconfigurable robots using a technique for order preferences by similarity to ideal solution approach. However, 86 attributes that affect the structure and performance are identified. A database for modular self-reconfigurable robot on the basis of different pertinent attribute is generated. This database is very useful for the user, for selecting a robot that suits their operational needs. Two visual methods namely linear graph and spider chart are proposed for ranking of modular self-reconfigurable robots. Using five robots (Atron, Smores, Polybot, M-Tran 3, Superbot), an example is illustrated, and raking of the robots is successfully done, which shows that Smores is the best robot for the operational need illustrated, and this methodology is found to be very effective and simple to use.

Keywords: Self-reconfigurable robots, MADM, TOPSIS, morphogenesis, scalability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 833

Authors: Mahshid Hatamzad, Geanette Polanco

Abstract:

Improving the performance of Winter Road Maintenance (WRM) can increase the traffic safety and reduce the cost as well as environmental impacts. This study evaluates the efficiency of WRM technique, named salting, in the Arctic area by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric linear method to measure the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMUs) based on handling multiple inputs and multiple outputs at the same time that their associated weights are not known. Here, roads are considered as DMUs for which the efficiency must be determined. The three input variables considered are traffic flow, road area and WRM cost. In addition, the two output variables included are level of safety in the roads and environment impacts resulted from WRM, which is also considered as an uncontrollable factor in the second scenario. The results show the performance of DMUs from the most efficient WRM to the inefficient/least efficient one and this information provides decision makers with technical support and the required suggested improvements for inefficient WRM, in order to achieve a cost-effective WRM and a safe road transportation during wintertime in the Arctic areas.

Keywords: DEA, environmental impacts, risk and safety, WRM.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Bita Payami-Shabestari, Dariush Eslami

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.

Keywords: Economic production quantity, random cost, supply chain management, vendor-managed inventory.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 622

Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

Abstract:

Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1244

Authors: B. Glumac, Q. Han, W. Schaefer

Abstract:

Purpose of this paper is two-folded. At first it explains the major problems that are causing stagnation in brownfield redevelopment. In addition, these problems given the context of the present multi-actor built environment are becoming more complex to observe. Therefore, this paper suggests also a prospective decisionmaking approach that is the most appropriate to observe and react on the given stagnation problems. Such an approach should be regarded as prescriptive-interactive decision-making approach, a barely established branch. This approach should offer models that have prescriptive as well as an interactive component enabling them to successfully cope with the multi-actor environment. Overall, this paper provides up-to-date insight on the brownfield stagnation by gradually introducing the nowadays major problems and offers a prospective decision-making approach how these problems could be tackled.

Keywords: BR, decision-making approach, stagnation, the Netherlands.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1732