Search results for: Domestic policy

Authors: Chengxuan Geng, Chenxi Liu

Abstract:

this article conducts a research about the relationship between cash dividend policy and enterprise value based on the data coming from the A-share listed companies over period 2005-2009. In conclusion, the enterprise value has a negative correlation with the incremental and the degressive cash dividend per share, and has a positive correlation with the stable cash dividend per share.

Keywords: Cash dividend policy, enterprise value, stability.

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

Abstract:

This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: Globalization, Trade Policy, Economic Growth, Openness, Co-integration, Turkey.

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Authors: Yuriy V. Timofeyev, Galina V. Timofeyeva

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In the paper it is questioned whether effective state social policy provides happiness and social progress. For this purpose selected correlations between Human Development Index (HDI), share of public social expenditures in GDP, the Happy Planet Index (HPI), GDP per capita, and Government Effectiveness are examined and the results are graphically presented. It is shown how a government can affect well-being and happiness in different countries of modern world. Also, it is tested the hypothesis about existence of a certain optimum of well-being and public social expenditures, which affect direction of social progress. It is concluded that efficient social policy and wealth are not the only factors determining human happiness.

Keywords: government effectiveness, happiness, social progress, state social policy

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Authors: U. Umadevi, T. Umakanthan

Abstract:

Globally, mycotic dermatitis is very common but there is no single proven specific allopathic treatment regimen. In this study, domestic animals with skin diseases of different age and breed from geographically varied regions of Tamil Nadu state, India were employed. Most of them have had previous treatment with native and allopathic medicines without success. Clinically, the skin lesions were found to be mild to severe. The trial animals were treated with poly herbal formulation (ointment) prepared using the indigenous medicinal plants – viz Andrographis paniculata, Lawsonia inermis and Madhuca longifolia. Allopathic antifungal drugs and ointments, povidone iodine and curabless (Terbinafine HCl, Ofloxacin, Ornidazole, Clobetasol propionate) were used in control. Comparatively, trial animals were found to have lesser course of treatment time and higher recovery rate than control. In Ethnoveterinary, this combination was tried for the first time. This herbal formulation is economical and an alternative for skin diseases.

Keywords: Allopathic drugs, dermatitis, domestic animals, poly herbal formulation.

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Authors: Margareta Ilkova, Petr Teply

Abstract:

The article deals with dividends and their distribution from investors from a theoretical point of view. Some studies try to analyzed the reaction of the market on the dividend announcement and found out the change of dividend policy is associated with abnormal returns around the dividend announcement date. Another researches directly questioned the investors about their dividend preference and beliefs. Investors want the dividend from many reasons (e.g. some of them explain the dividend preference by the existence of transaction cost; investors prefer the dividend today, because there is less risky; the managers have private information about the firm). The most controversial theory of dividend policy was developed by Modigliani and Miller (1961) who demonstrated that in the perfect and complete capital markets the dividend policy is irrelevant and the value of the company is independent of its payout policy. Nevertheless, in the real world the capital markets are imperfect, because of asymmetric information, transaction costs, incomplete contracting possibilities and taxes.

Keywords: dividend distribution, taxation, payout policy, investor, Modigliani and Miller theorem

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili

Abstract:

The paper shows the necessity of farm diversification in accordance with the current trends in agricultural sector of Georgia. The possibilities for the diversification and the corresponding economic policy are suggested. The causes that hinder diversification of farms are revealed, possibilities of diversification are identified and the ability of increasing employment through diversification is proved. Index of harvest diversification is calculated based on the areas used for cereals and legumes, potatoes and vegetables and other food crops. Crop and livestock production indexes are analyzed; correlation between crop capacity index and value added per worker and per hectare is studied. Based on the research farm diversification strategies and priorities of corresponding economic policy are presented. Based on the conclusions relevant recommendations are suggested.

Keywords: Farm diversification, diversification index, agricultural development policy.

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Authors: B. Mikulskienė

Abstract:

Public administration institutions in cooperation with politicians are not the sole policy decision makers in full meaning any longer. Meanwhile, a special role, namely steering the decision making process, could be delegated to them. Despite the wide scientific discussion on different aspects what has direct impact on policy creation, there is a lack of holistic practical managerial advice, which could integrate infrastructure of policy decision making with intellectual capital and with interconnection of partnership. The proposed harmonized decision making model of process, people and partnership entitled by acronym HM-3P is analyzed as a framework for implementation of public administration steering role seeking the coherent social involvement in policy decision making.

Keywords: participatory decision making, partnership, stakeholders.

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Authors: Zeynep Karaçor, Savaş Erdoğan, Perihan Hazel Er

Abstract:

While import-substituting industrialization policy constitute the basis for the industrialization strategies of the 1960s and 1970s in Turkey, this policy was no longer sustainable by the 1980s. For this reason, export-oriented industrialization policy was adopted with the decisions taken on January 24, 1980. In other words, the post-1980 period, Turkey's economy has adopted outwardoriented industrialization strategy. In this study, it is aimed to analyze the effect of the change in economic structure on foreign trade with the transformation of foreign trade and industrialization policies in the post-1980 period. In this respect, in order to analyze the relationship between import, export and economic growth by using variables of the 1960-2011 period, Chow test was applied. In the analysis the reason for using Chow test is whether there is any difference in economic terms between import-substituting industrialization policy applied in the 1960-1980 period and the 1981-2011 period during which exportoriented industrialization policy was applied as a result of the structural transformation.

Keywords: Chow Test, Export-Oriented Industrialization Policy, Import-Substituting Industrialization Policy, Turkey.

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Authors: El Youssfi L., Choukr-Allah R., Zaafrani M., Mediouni T., Sarr F, Hirich A.

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An experiment was implemented in a filed in the south of Morocco to evaluate the effects of domestic treated wastewater use for irrigation of amaranth crop under semi-arid conditions. Three varieties (A0020, A0057 & A211) were tested and irrigated using domestic treated wastewater EC1 (0,92 dS/m) as control, EC3 (3dS/m) and EC6 (6dS/m) obtained by adding sea water. In term of growth, an increase of the EC level of applied irrigation water reduced significantly the plant-s height, leaf area, fresh and dry weight measured at vegetative, flowering and maturity stage for all varieties. Even with the application of the EC6, yields were relatively higher in comparison with the once obtained in normal cultivation conditions. A significant accumulation of nitrate, chloride and sodium in soil layers during the crop cycle was noted. The use of treated waste water for its irrigation is proved to be possible. The variety A211 had showed to be less sensitive to salinity stress and it could be more promising its introduction to study area.

Keywords: Amaranth, salinity, semi-arid, treated waste water.

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Nor Salwati Othman

Abstract:

Malaysia has achieved remarkable economic growth since 1957, moving toward modernization from a predominantly agriculture base to manufacturing and—now—modern services. The development policies (i.e., New Economic Policy [1970–1990], the National Development Policy [1990–2000], and Vision 2020) have been recognized as the most important drivers of this transformation. The transformation of the economic structure has moved along with rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, urbanization growth, and greater demand for energy from mainly fossil fuel resources, which in turn, increase CO2 emissions. Malaysia faced a great challenge to bring down the CO2 emissions without compromising economic development. Solid policies and a strategy to reduce dependencies on fossil fuel resources and reduce CO2 emissions are needed in order to achieve sustainable development. This study provides an overview of the Malaysian economic, energy, and environmental situation, and explores the existing policies and strategies related to energy and the environment. The significance is to grasp a clear picture on what types of policies and strategies Malaysia has in hand. In the future, this examination should be extended by drawing a comparison with other developed countries and highlighting several options for sustainable development.

Keywords: Energy policies, energy efficiency, renewable energy, green building, Malaysia, sustainable development.

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Authors: Hiroaki Sumi, Kiichiro Hayashi

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Now, the use of renewable energy power generation has been advanced. In this paper, we compared the usable amount of resource for photovoltaic power generation which was estimated using the NEDO formula and the expansion support policy of photovoltaic power generation which was researched using Internet in the municipality level in Hokkaido and Aichi Prefecture, Japan. This paper will contribute to grasp the current situation especially about the policy. As a result, there were municipalities which seemed to be no consideration of fitting the amount of resources. We think it would need to consider the suitability between the resources and policies.

Keywords: Photovoltaic power generation, expansion support policy, amount of resources, Japan.

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Authors: Irena Palić

Abstract:

The main objective of the research in this paper is to empirically assess the causal relationship of private savings and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Households’ savings are approximated by household deposits in banks, while domestic income is approximated by industrial production volume indices. Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality tests are used to in order to analyse the relationship among private savings and economic growth. Since ADF unit root tests have shown that both mentioned series are non stationary at levels, series are first differenced in order to become stationary. Therefore, VAR model is estimated with percentage change in private savings and percentage change in domestic income, which can be interpreted as economic growth in case of positive percentage change in domestic income. The Granger causality test has shown that there is no causal relationship among private savings and economic growth in Croatia. The impulse response functions have shown that the impact of shock in domestic income on private savings change is stronger than the impact of private saving on growth. Variance decompositions show that both economic growth and private saving change explain the largest part of its own forecast variance. The research has shown that the link between private savings economic and growth in Croatia is weak, what is in line with relevant empirical research in small open economies.

Keywords: Economic growth, Granger causality, innovation analysis, private savings, Vector Autoregression model.

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Authors: Suthawan Chirapanda

Abstract:

International trade involves both large and small firms engaged in business overseas. Possible drivers that force companies to enter international markets include increasing competition at the domestic market, maturing domestic markets, and limited domestic market opportunities. Technology is an important driving factor in shaping international marketing strategy as well as in driving force towards a more global marketplace, especially technology in communication. It includes telephones, the internet, computer systems and e-mail. There are three main marketing strategy choices, namely standardization approach, adaptation approach and middleof- the-road approach that companies implement to overseas markets. The decision depends on situations and factors facing the companies in the international markets. In this paper, the contingency concept is considered that no single strategy can be effective in all contexts. The effect of strategy on performance depends on specific situational variables. Strategic fit is employed to investigate export marketing strategy adaptation under certain environmental conditions, which in turn can lead to superior performance.

Keywords: Contingency approach, international marketing strategy, strategic fit, technological environment

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Authors: Nathan C. Lea, Tony Austin, Stephen Hailes, Dipak Kalra

Abstract:

This paper introduces a tool that is being developed for the expression of information security policy controls that govern electronic healthcare records. By reference to published findings, the paper introduces the theory behind the use of knowledge management for automatic and consistent security policy assertion using the formalism called the Secutype; the development of the tool and functionality is discussed; some examples of Secutypes generated by the tool are provided; proposed integration with existing medical record systems is described. The paper is concluded with a section on further work and critique of the work achieved to date.

Keywords: Information Security Policy, Electronic Healthcare Records, Knowledge Management, Archetypes, Secutypes.

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Authors: Karolina Patora

Abstract:

This article investigates liquidity risk management by banks, which has gained significant importance since the global financial crisis of 2008. The issue is of particular interest for countries like Poland, in which foreign capital plays a dominant role. Such an ownership structure poses certain risks to the local banking sector, which faces an increased probability of the withdrawal of funding or assets’ transfers abroad in case of a crisis. Both these factors can have a detrimental influence on the liquidity position of foreign-owned banks and hence negatively affect the financial stability of the whole banking sector. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of a dominating share of foreign investors in the Polish banking sector on the liquidity position of commercial banks. The study hypothesizes that the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector, in which there are banks predominantly controlled by foreign investors, does not pose a threat to the liquidity position of Polish banks. A supplementary research hypothesis is that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-owned banks differs from that of domestic banks. The sample consists of 14 foreign-owned banks and 5 domestic banks owned by local investors, which together constitute approximately 87% of the banking sector’s assets. The data covers the period of 2004–2014. The results of the regression models show no evidence of significant differences in terms of the dynamics of changes of the liquidity buffers between the foreign-owned and domestic banks, although the signs of the coefficients might suggest that the foreign-owned banks were decreasing the holdings of liquid assets at a slower pace over the examined period, compared to the domestic banks. However, no proof of the statistical significance of these findings has been found. The supplementary research hypothesis that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-controlled banks differs from that of domestic banks was rejected.

Keywords: Financial stability, foreign-owned banks, liquidity position, liquidity risk.

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Authors: Kevin You

Abstract:

Nation-building has been a key consideration in ethno-linguistically diverse post-colonial ‘artificial states’, where ethnic tensions, religious differences and the risk of persecution of minorities are common. Language policy can help with nation-building, but it can also hinder the process. An important challenge is in recognising which language policy to adopt. This article proposes that the designation of a widely used lingua franca as a national language (in an official capacity or otherwise) - in a culturally, ethnically and linguistically diverse post-colonial state - assists its nation-building efforts in the long run. To demonstrate, this paper looks at the cases of Sri Lanka, Indonesia and India: three young nations which together emerged out of the Second World War with comparable colonial experiences, but subsequently adopted different language policies to different effects. Insights presented underscore the significance of inclusive language policy in sustainable nation-building in states with comparable post-colonial experiences.

Keywords: Language policy, South Asia, nation building, Artificial states.

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Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

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Energy is the basic element for any country’s economic development. India is one of the most populated countries, and is dependent on fossil fuel and nuclear-based energy generation. The energy sector faces huge challenges and is dependent on the import of energy from neighboring countries to fulfill the gap in demand and supply. India has huge setbacks for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, therefore they consume more quantity of energy to produce the same amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the developed countries. Technology and technique use, availability, and affordability in the various sectors are varying according to their economic status. In this paper, an attempt is made to quantify the domestic electrical energy consumption in Jodhpur, India. Survey research methods have been employed and stratified sampling technique-based households were chosen for conducting the investigation. Pre-tested survey schedules are used to investigate the grassroots level study. The collected data are analyzed by employing statistical techniques. Thereafter, a multiple regression model is developed to understand the functions of total electricity consumption in the domestic sector corresponding to other independent variables including electrical appliances, age of the building, household size, education, etc. The study resulted in identifying the governing variable in energy consumption at the household level and their relationship with the efficiency of household-based electrical and energy appliances. The analysis is concluded with the recommendation for optimizing the gap in peak electrical demand and supply in the domestic sector.

Keywords: Appliance, consumption, electricity, households.

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Authors: Z. Zarid, C. Gamba, A. Brusseaux, C. Laborie, K. Briens

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Cooling with sound is a physical phenomenon allowed by Thermo-Acoustics in which acoustic energy is transformed into a negative heat transfer, in other words: into cooling! Without needing any harmful gas, the transformation is environmentally friendly and can respond to many needs in terms of air conditioning, food refrigeration for domestic use, and cooling medical samples for example. To explore the possibilities of this cooling solution on a small scale, the TACS prototype has been designed, consisting of a low cost thermoacoustic refrigerant “pipe” able to lower the temperature by a few degrees. The obtained results are providing an interesting element for possible future of thermo-acoustic refrigeration.

Keywords: Domestic Scale Cooling System, Thermoacoustic, Environmental Friendly Refrigeration.

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Authors: Subramaniam Chandran

Abstract:

This paper explores the social and political imperatives in the sphere of public policy relating to social justice. In India, the colonial legacy and post-colonial social and political pressures sustained the appropriation of 'caste' category in allocating public resources to the backward class of citizens. For several reasons, 'economic' category could not be placed in allocating resources. This paper examines the reasons behind the deliberative exercises and formulating policies and seeks an alternative framework in realizing social justice in terms of a unified category. This attempt can be viewed as a reconciliation of traditional and modern values for a viable alternative in public policy making.

Keywords: Social justice, caste, public policy, communal quota

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Authors: Abolfazl Moeini, Elahe Alizadeh Paeenafrakaty

Abstract:

The protection of groundwater resources is the great important many semiarid and arid environments. Baghan watershed is located in the north of Kangan in the Boshehr province in Iran. The groundwater resources have a vital role in supplying agricultural, drinking, domestic and industrial water demand in Baghan watershed. For our investigation into the water quality we collected 30 samples to chemical and physical analysis. The result showed the marl and evaporation deposits that contain anhydrite and gypsum is the main source of groundwater pollution, and one part of the groundwater was polluted by oil and gas industrial. Another part of the groundwater was contaminated by urban waste water. The electrical conductivity and captions and anions increased around of towns and gas refinery. Although the negative impact of untreated domestic wastewater is relatively low but the results showed strongly the negative impact of wastewater refinery is very considerable. This negative impact increased in downstream due to shallow aquifer. Additionally, the agents that adversely affect the quality of groundwater come from a variety of sources, including geology, domestic wastewater and the Jam refinery in Baghan watershed.

Keywords: Baghan watershed, Chemical quality, Groundwater, Pollution sources.

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Authors: Yang Chengmei

Abstract:

In this paper, taking Chinese Nanjing Metro ALSTOM vehicle synthesis brake as an example, the subway with synthetic brake shoe formula components of final product performance, has done a lot of research and performance test, final is drawn with hybrid fiber as reinforcing material, modified phenolic resin as matrix material, and then filling friction modifier performance, by the hot pressing process made a new type of domestic subway brake shoe. The product of the test performance indicators that can replace the similar foreign products.

Keywords: Metro, synthetic brake shoe, component analysis, formula research.

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Authors: Ru-Shuo Sheu, Han-Hsin Chou, Te-Shyang Tan

Abstract:

Considering a reservoir with periodic states and different cost functions with penalty, its release rules can be modeled as a periodic Markov decision process (PMDP). First, we prove that policy- iteration algorithm also works for the PMDP. Then, with policy- iteration algorithm, we obtain the optimal policies for a special aperiodic reservoir model with two cost functions under large penalty and give a discussion when the penalty is small.

Keywords: periodic Markov decision process, periodic state, policy-iteration algorithm.

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Authors: Wei-Ju, Huang

Abstract:

It is claimed that a new style of urban planning and policy intertwined with ICT is emerging and urban planning and ICT policy are no longer considered as separate disciplines. The interactions between electronic spaces and urban spaces are so complex and uncertain that confront urban planners and policy makers with great challenges. However, the assumption about the relationship between ICT and urban planning is mainly based on North American and European experiences. In the light of empirical evidence from Taipei City, this paper shows that this new type of urban planning and policy intertwined with ICT has existed in Asian city for a decade as well. Based on these results, this paper further reviews how the Taipei City government implements this new type of urban ICT planning and the validity and realism of its underlying assumptions. Finally, it also explores the extent to which urban ICT planning could promote positive synergies between physical and electronic developments.

Keywords: ICT, Taipei City, Urban ICT Planning.

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Authors: Zh. Tolen, A. Kadyralyeva, A. Alimzhanova, G. Aldambergenova, K. Arymbayeva, A. Zhiyenbekova

Abstract:

This paper describes the historical development of interethnic concord in the Republic of Kazakhstan, and emphasizes the role of tolerance mentality of the Kazakh people in ethno-political policy of the country. Moreover, pointing out interethnic concord as a powerful stabilizing factor, it analyses the specifics of interethnic policy in multinational Kazakh society. It summarizes that the culture of interethnic concord can be a model of ethno- political policy of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Interethnic relations, the culture of interethnic concord, multiculturalism, tolerance, stability in society.

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Authors: Heeyong Noh, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

The goal of this research is discovering the determinants of the success or failure of external cooperation in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). For this, a survey was given to 190 SMEs that experienced external cooperation within the last 3 years. A logistic regression model was used to derive organizational or strategic characteristics that significantly influence whether external collaboration of domestic SMEs is successful or not. Results suggest that research and development (R&D) features in general characteristics (both idea creation and discovering market opportunities) that focused on and emphasized indirected-market stakeholders (such as complementary companies and affiliates) and strategies in innovative strategic characteristics raise the probability of successful external cooperation. This can be used meaningfully to build a policy or strategy for inducing successful external cooperation or to understand the innovation of SMEs.

Keywords: External collaboration, Innovation strategy, Logisticregression, SMEs.

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems.

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, M. Saghareishvili

Abstract:

The article discusses the consumer market of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. It is noted that development of the strategic areas of the agricultural sector needs a special support. These strategic areas should create the country's major export potential. It is important to develop strategies to access to the international markets, form extensive marketing network etc., which will become the basis for the promotion and revenue growth of the country. The Georgian agricultural sector, with the right state policy and support, can achieve success and gain access to the world market with competitive agricultural products. The paper discusses the current condition of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. The conducted research concludes the information that there is an increasing demand on the green goods in the world market. Natural and climatic conditions of Georgia give a serious possibility of implementing it. The research presents an agricultural development strategy in Georgia and the findings and based on them recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: Agriculture, agricultural cooperative society agricultural insurance, agricultural policy, export-import of agricultural products.

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Authors: W. Kongnoo, J. Loysongkroa, S. Chotivichien, N. Viriyautsahakul, N. Saiwongse

Abstract:

Obesity, stunting and wasting problems among Thai school-aged children are increasing due to inappropriate food consumption behavior and poor environments for desirable nutritional behavior. Because of a low school lunch budget of only 0.40 USD per person per day, food quality is not up to nutritional standards. Therefore, the Health Department with the Education Ministry and the Thai Health Promotion Foundation have developed a quality school lunch project during 2009–2013. The program objectives were development and management of public policy to increase school lunch budget. The methods used a healthy public policy motivation process and movement in 241 local administrative organizations and 538 schools. The problem and solution research was organized to study school food and nutrition management, create a best practice policy mobilization model and hold a public hearing to motivate an increase of school meal funding. The results showed that local public policy has been motivated during 2009-2011 to increase school meal budget using local budgets. School children with best food consumption behavior and exercise increased from 13.2% in 2009 to 51.6% in 2013 and stunting decreased from 6.0% in 2009 to 4.7% in 2013. As the result of national policy motivation (2012-2013), the cabinet meeting on October 22, 2013 has approved an increase of school lunch budget from 0.40 USD to 0.62 USD per person per day. Thus, 5,800,469 school children nationwide have benefited from the budget increase.

Keywords: Public policy, Quality school lunch, Thailand.

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

Abstract:

Considering a worldwide tendency, air transports are growing very fast and many changes have taken place in planning, management and decision making process. Given the complexity of airport operation, the best use of existing capacity is the key driver of efficiency and productivity. This paper deals with the evaluation framework for the ground access at airports, by using a set of mode choice indicators providing key messages towards airport’s ground access performance. The application presents results for a sample of 12 European airports, illustrating recommendations to define policy and improve service for the air transport access chain.

Keywords: Air transport chain, airport ground access, airport access performance, airport policy.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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