Search results for: Design evaluation method
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 12997

Search results for: Design evaluation method

247 Spatial Mapping of Dengue Incidence: A Case Study in Hulu Langat District, Selangor, Malaysia

Authors: Er, A. C., Rosli, M. H., Asmahani A., Mohamad Naim M. R., Harsuzilawati M.

Abstract:

Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection that has peaked to an alarming rate in recent decades. It can be found in tropical and sub-tropical climate. In Malaysia, dengue has been declared as one of the national health threat to the public. This study aimed to map the spatial distributions of dengue cases in the district of Hulu Langat, Selangor via a combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial statistic tools. Data related to dengue was gathered from the various government health agencies. The location of dengue cases was geocoded using a handheld GPS Juno SB Trimble. A total of 197 dengue cases occurring in 2003 were used in this study. Those data then was aggregated into sub-district level and then converted into GIS format. The study also used population or demographic data as well as the boundary of Hulu Langat. To assess the spatial distribution of dengue cases three spatial statistics method (Moran-s I, average nearest neighborhood (ANN) and kernel density estimation) were applied together with spatial analysis in the GIS environment. Those three indices were used to analyze the spatial distribution and average distance of dengue incidence and to locate the hot spot of dengue cases. The results indicated that the dengue cases was clustered (p < 0.01) when analyze using Moran-s I with z scores 5.03. The results from ANN analysis showed that the average nearest neighbor ratio is less than 1 which is 0.518755 (p < 0.0001). From this result, we can expect the dengue cases pattern in Hulu Langat district is exhibiting a cluster pattern. The z-score for dengue incidence within the district is -13.0525 (p < 0.0001). It was also found that the significant spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidences occurs at an average distance of 380.81 meters (p < 0.0001). Several locations especially residential area also had been identified as the hot spots of dengue cases in the district.

Keywords: Dengue, geographic information system (GIS), spatial analysis, spatial statistics

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246 Effects of Duct Geometry, Thickness and Types of Liners on Transmission Loss for Absorptive Silencers

Authors: M. Kashfi, K. Jahani

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Sound attenuation in absorptive silencers has been analyzed in this paper. The structure of such devices is as follows. When the rigid duct of an expansion chamber has been lined by a packed absorptive material under a perforated membrane, incident sound waves will be dissipated by the absorptive liners. This kind of silencer, usually are applicable for medium to high frequency ranges. Several conditions for different absorptive materials, variety in their thicknesses, and different shapes of the expansion chambers have been studied in this paper. Also, graphs of sound attenuation have been compared between empty expansion chamber and duct of silencer with applying liner. Plane waves have been assumed in inlet and outlet regions of the silencer. Presented results that have been achieved by applying finite element method (FEM), have shown the dependence of the sound attenuation spectrum to flow resistivity and the thicknesses of the absorptive materials, and geometries of the cross section (configuration of the silencer). As flow resistivity and thickness of absorptive materials increase, sound attenuation improves. In this paper, diagrams of the transmission loss (TL) for absorptive silencers in five different cross sections (rectangle, circle, ellipse, square, and rounded rectangle as the main geometry) have been presented. Also, TL graphs for silencers using different absorptive material (glass wool, wood fiber, and kind of spongy materials) as liner with three different thicknesses of 5 mm, 15 mm, and 30 mm for glass wool liner have been exhibited. At first, the effect of substances of the absorptive materials with the specific flow resistivity and densities on the TL spectrum, then the effect of the thicknesses of the glass wool, and at last the efficacy of the shape of the cross section of the silencer have been investigated.

Keywords: Transmission loss, absorptive material, flow resistivity, thickness, frequency.

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245 Model Reference Adaptive Approach for Power System Stabilizer for Damping of Power Oscillations

Authors: Jožef Ritonja, Bojan Grčar, Boštjan Polajžer

Abstract:

In recent years, electricity trade between neighboring countries has become increasingly intense. Increasing power transmission over long distances has resulted in an increase in the oscillations of the transmitted power. The damping of the oscillations can be carried out with the reconfiguration of the network or the replacement of generators, but such solution is not economically reasonable. The only cost-effective solution to improve the damping of power oscillations is to use power system stabilizers. Power system stabilizer represents a part of synchronous generator control system. It utilizes semiconductor’s excitation system connected to the rotor field excitation winding to increase the damping of the power system. The majority of the synchronous generators are equipped with the conventional power system stabilizers with fixed parameters. The control structure of the conventional power system stabilizers and the tuning procedure are based on the linear control theory. Conventional power system stabilizers are simple to realize, but they show non-sufficient damping improvement in the entire operating conditions. This is the reason that advanced control theories are used for development of better power system stabilizers. In this paper, the adaptive control theory for power system stabilizers design and synthesis is studied. The presented work is focused on the use of model reference adaptive control approach. Control signal, which assures that the controlled plant output will follow the reference model output, is generated by the adaptive algorithm. Adaptive gains are obtained as a combination of the "proportional" term and with the σ-term extended "integral" term. The σ-term is introduced to avoid divergence of the integral gains. The necessary condition for asymptotic tracking is derived by means of hyperstability theory. The benefits of the proposed model reference adaptive power system stabilizer were evaluated as objectively as possible by means of a theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and laboratory realizations. Damping of the synchronous generator oscillations in the entire operating range was investigated. Obtained results show the improved damping in the entire operating area and the increase of the power system stability. The results of the presented work will help by the development of the model reference power system stabilizer which should be able to replace the conventional stabilizers in power systems.

Keywords: Power system, stability, oscillations, power system stabilizer, model reference adaptive control.

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244 An Automated Stock Investment System Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Application in Australia

Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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243 High Sensitivity Crack Detection and Locating with Optimized Spatial Wavelet Analysis

Authors: A. Ghanbari Mardasi, N. Wu, C. Wu

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In this study, a spatial wavelet-based crack localization technique for a thick beam is presented. Wavelet scale in spatial wavelet transformation is optimized to enhance crack detection sensitivity. A windowing function is also employed to erase the edge effect of the wavelet transformation, which enables the method to detect and localize cracks near the beam/measurement boundaries. Theoretical model and vibration analysis considering the crack effect are first proposed and performed in MATLAB based on the Timoshenko beam model. Gabor wavelet family is applied to the beam vibration mode shapes derived from the theoretical beam model to magnify the crack effect so as to locate the crack. Relative wavelet coefficient is obtained for sensitivity analysis by comparing the coefficient values at different positions of the beam with the lowest value in the intact area of the beam. Afterward, the optimal wavelet scale corresponding to the highest relative wavelet coefficient at the crack position is obtained for each vibration mode, through numerical simulations. The same procedure is performed for cracks with different sizes and positions in order to find the optimal scale range for the Gabor wavelet family. Finally, Hanning window is applied to different vibration mode shapes in order to overcome the edge effect problem of wavelet transformation and its effect on the localization of crack close to the measurement boundaries. Comparison of the wavelet coefficients distribution of windowed and initial mode shapes demonstrates that window function eases the identification of the cracks close to the boundaries.

Keywords: Edge effect, scale optimization, small crack locating, spatial wavelet.

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242 Effect of Vitamin D3 on Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Prognosis, Anthropometric and Body Composition Parameters of Overweight Women: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial

Authors: Nahla Al-Bayyari, Rae’d Hailat

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Vitamin D deficiency and overweight are common in women suffering from polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Weight gain in PCOS is an important factor for the development of menstrual dysfunction and signs of hyperandrogenism and alopecia. Features of PCOS such as oligomenorrhea can be predicted by anthropometric measurements as body mass index (BMI). Therefore, the aim of this trial was to study the effect of 50,000 IU/week of vitamin D₃ supplementation on the body composition and on the anthropometric measurements of overweight women with PCOS and to examine the impact of this effect on ovaries ultrasonography and menstrual cycle regularity. The study design was a prospective randomized, double-blinded placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted on 60 overweight Jordanian women aged (18-49) years with PCOS and vitamin D deficiency. The study participants were divided into two groups; vitamin D group (n = 30) who were assigned to receive 50,000 IU/week of vitamin D₃ and placebo group (n = 30) who were assigned to receive placebo tablets orally for 90 days. The anthropometric measurements and body composition were measured at baseline and after treatment for the PCOS and vitamin D deficient women. Also, assessment of the participants’ picture of ovaries by ultrasound and menstrual cycle regulatory were performed before and after treatment. Results showed that there were no significant (p > 0.05) differences between the placebo and vitamin D group basal 25(OH)D levels, body composition and anthropometric parameters. After treatment, vitamin D group serum levels of 25(OH)D increased (12.5 ± 0.61 to 50.2 ± 2.04 ng/mL, (p < 0.001), and decreased (50.2 ± 2.04 to 48.2 ± 2.03 ng/mL, p < 0.001) after 14 days of vitamin D₃ treatment cessation. There were no significant changes in the placebo group. In the vitamin D group, there were significant (p < 0.001) decreases in body weight, BMI, waist, and hip circumferences and fat mass. In addition, there were significant increases (p < 0.05) in fat free mass and total body water. These improvements in both anthropometric and body composition as well as in 25(OH)D concentrations, resulted in significant improvements in the picture of PCOS women ovaries ultrasonography and in menstrual cycle regularity, where nearly most of them (93%) had regular cycles after vitamin D₃ supplementation. In the placebo group, there were only significant decreases (p < 0.05) in waist and hip circumferences. It can be concluded that vitamin D supplementation improving serum 25(OH)D levels and PCOS prognosis by reducing body weight of overweight PCOS women and regulating their menstrual cycle.

Keywords: Anthropometric, overweight, polycystic ovary syndrome, vitamin D3.

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241 Potential of Henna Leaves as Dye and Its Fastness Properties on Fabric

Authors: Nkem Angela Udeani

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Despite the wide spread use of synthetic dyes, natural dyes are still exploited and used to enhance its inherent aesthetic qualities as a major material for beautification of the body. Centuries before the discovery of synthetic dyes, natural dyes were the only source of dye open to mankind. Dyes are extracted from plant - leaves, roots and barks, insect secretions, and minerals. However, research findings have made it clear that of all, plants- leaves, roots, barks or flowers are the most explored and exploited in which henna (Lawsonia innermis L.) is one of those plants. Experiment has also shown that henna is used in body painting in conjunction with an alkaline (Ammonium Sulphate) as a fixing agent. This of course gives a clue that if colour derived from henna is properly investigated, it may not only be used for body decoration but possibly, may have affinity to fiber substrate. This paper investigates the dyeing potentials – dye ability and fastness qualities of henna dye extracts on cotton and linen fibers using mordants like ammonium sulphate and other alkalis (hydrosulphate and caustic soda, potash, common salt, potassium alum). Hot and cold water and ethanol solvent were used in the extraction of the dye to investigate the most effective method, dye ability, and fastness qualities of these extracts under room temperature. The results of the experiment show that cotton have a high rate of dye intake than other fiber. On a similar note, the colours obtained depend most on the solvent used. In conclusion, hot water extraction appears more effective. While the colours obtained from ethanol and both cold hot methods of extraction range from light to dark yellow, light green to army green and to some extent shades of brown hues.

Keywords: Dye, fabrics, henna leaves, potential.

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240 A 25-year Monitoring of the Air Pollution Depicted by Plane Tree Species in Tehran

Authors: S. A. A. Korori, H. Valipour K., S. Shabestani, A. shirvany, M. Matinizadeh

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Tehran, one of the heavily-populated capitals, is severely suffering from increasing air pollution. To show a documented trend of such pollutants during last years, plane tree species (Platanus orientalis) were suited to be studied as indicators, for the species have been planted throughout the city many years ago. Two areas (Saadatabad and Narmak districts) allotting different contents of crowed and highly-traffic routs but the same ecological characteristics were selected. Twelve sample individuals were cored twice perpendicularly in each area. Tree-rings of each core were measured by a binocular microscope and separated annually for the last 25 years. Two heavy metals including Cd and Pb accompanied by a mineral element (Ca) were analyzed using Hatch method. Treerings analysis of the two areas showed different groups in term of physiologically ability as the growths were plunged during the last 10 years in Saadatabad district and showed a slight decrease in the same period for another studying area. In direct contrast to decreasing growth trend in Saadatabad, all three mentioned elements increased sharply during last 25 years in the same area. When it came to Narmak district, the trend was completely different with Saadatabad. There were some fluctuations in absorbing trace elements like tree-rings widths were, yet calcium showed an upward trend all the last 25 years. The results of the study proved the possibility of using tree species of each region to monitor its air pollution trends of the past, hence to depict a pollution assessment of a populated city for last years and then to make appropriate decisions for the future as it is well-known what the trend is. On the other hand, risen values of calcium (as the stress-indicator element) accompanied by increased trace elements suggests non-sustainable state of the trees.

Keywords: Air pollution, Platanus orientalis, Tehran, Traceelements, Tree rings.

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239 The Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility in the National Commercial Bank in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Nada Azhar

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The aim of the paper is to investigate the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) CSR on the National Commercial Bank (NCB) in Saudi Arabia. In order to achieve this, a case study was made of the CSR activities of this bank from the perspective of its branch managers. The NCB was chosen as it was one of the first Saudi banks to engage in CSR and currently has a wide range of CSR initiatives. A qualitative research method was used. Open-ended questionnaires were administered to eighty branch managers of the NCB, with fifty-five usable questionnaires returned and twenty managers were interviewed as part of the primary research. Data from both questionnaires and interviews were analysed using qualitative content analysis. Six themes emerged from the questionnaire findings were used to develop the interview questions. These themes are the following: Awareness of employees about CSR in the NCB; CSR activities as a type of investment; Government and media support; Increased employee loyalty in the NCB; Prestige and profit to the NCB; and View of CSR in Islam. This paper makes a theoretical contribution in that it investigates and increases understanding of the effect of CSR on the NCB in Saudi Arabia. In addition, it makes a practical contribution by making recommendations which can support the development of CSR in the NCB. A limitation of the paper is that it is a case study of only one bank. It is therefore recommended that future research could be conducted with other banks in Saudi Arabia, or indeed, with a range of other types of firm within the financial services area in Saudi Arabia. In this way, the same issues could be explored but with a greater potential generalisability of findings of CSR within the Saudi Arabian financial services industry. In addition, this paper takes a qualitative approach and it is suggested that future research be carried out using mixed methods, which could provide a greater depth of analysis.

Keywords: Branch managers, corporate social responsibility. national commercial bank, Saudi Arabia.

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238 Numerical Study of Flapping-Wing Flight of Hummingbird Hawkmoth during Hovering: Longitudinal Dynamics

Authors: Yao Jie, Yeo Khoon Seng

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In recent decades, flapping wing aerodynamics has attracted great interest. Understanding the physics of biological flyers such as birds and insects can help improve the performance of micro air vehicles. The present research focuses on the aerodynamics of insect-like flapping wing flight with the approach of numerical computation. Insect model of hawkmoth is adopted in the numerical study with rigid wing assumption currently. The numerical model integrates the computational fluid dynamics of the flow and active control of wing kinematics to achieve stable flight. The computation grid is a hybrid consisting of background Cartesian nodes and clouds of mesh-free grids around immersed boundaries. The generalized finite difference method is used in conjunction with single value decomposition (SVD-GFD) in computational fluid dynamics solver to study the dynamics of a free hovering hummingbird hawkmoth. The longitudinal dynamics of the hovering flight is governed by three control parameters, i.e., wing plane angle, mean positional angle and wing beating frequency. In present work, a PID controller works out the appropriate control parameters with the insect motion as input. The controller is adjusted to acquire desired maneuvering of the insect flight. The numerical scheme in present study is proven to be accurate and stable to simulate the flight of the hummingbird hawkmoth, which has relatively high Reynolds number. The PID controller is responsive to provide feedback to the wing kinematics during the hovering flight. The simulated hovering flight agrees well with the real insect flight. The present numerical study offers a promising route to investigate the free flight aerodynamics of insects, which could overcome some of the limitations of experiments.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, flight control, computational fluid dynamics, flapping-wing flight.

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237 Comparative Study of Calcium Content on in vitro Biological and Antibacterial Properties of Silicon-Based Bioglass

Authors: Morteza Elsa, Amirhossein Moghanian

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The major aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of CaO content on in vitro hydroxyapatite formation, MC3T3 cells cytotoxicity and proliferation as well as antibacterial efficiency of sol-gel derived SiO2–CaO–P2O5 ternary system. For this purpose, first two grades of bioactive glass (BG); BG-58s (mol%: 60%SiO2–36%CaO–4%P2O5) and BG-68s (mol%: 70%SiO2–26%CaO–4%P2O5)) were synthesized by sol-gel method. Second, the effect of CaO content in their composition on in vitro bioactivity was investigated by soaking the BG-58s and BG-68s powders in simulated body fluid (SBF) for time periods up to 14 days and followed by characterization inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques. Additionally, live/dead staining, 3-(4,5dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity assays were conducted respectively, as qualitatively and quantitatively assess for cell viability, proliferation and differentiations of MC3T3 cells in presence of 58s and 68s BGs. Results showed that BG-58s with higher CaO content showed higher in vitro bioactivity with respect to BG-68s. Moreover, the dissolution rate was inversely proportional to oxygen density of the BG. Live/dead assay revealed that both 58s and 68s increased the mean number live cells which were in good accordance with MTT assay. Furthermore, BG-58s showed more potential antibacterial activity against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteria. Taken together, BG-58s with enhanced MC3T3 cells proliferation and ALP activity, acceptable bioactivity and significant high antibacterial effect against MRSA bacteria is suggested as a suitable candidate in order to further functionalizing for delivery of therapeutic ions and growth factors in bone tissue engineering.

Keywords: Antibacterial, bioactive glass, hydroxyapatite, proliferation, sol-gel processes.

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236 Sound Selection for Gesture Sonification and Manipulation of Virtual Objects

Authors: Benjamin Bressolette, S´ebastien Denjean, Vincent Roussarie, Mitsuko Aramaki, Sølvi Ystad, Richard Kronland-Martinet

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New sensors and technologies – such as microphones, touchscreens or infrared sensors – are currently making their appearance in the automotive sector, introducing new kinds of Human-Machine Interfaces (HMIs). The interactions with such tools might be cognitively expensive, thus unsuitable for driving tasks. It could for instance be dangerous to use touchscreens with a visual feedback while driving, as it distracts the driver’s visual attention away from the road. Furthermore, new technologies in car cockpits modify the interactions of the users with the central system. In particular, touchscreens are preferred to arrays of buttons for space improvement and design purposes. However, the buttons’ tactile feedback is no more available to the driver, which makes such interfaces more difficult to manipulate while driving. Gestures combined with an auditory feedback might therefore constitute an interesting alternative to interact with the HMI. Indeed, gestures can be performed without vision, which means that the driver’s visual attention can be totally dedicated to the driving task. In fact, the auditory feedback can both inform the driver with respect to the task performed on the interface and on the performed gesture, which might constitute a possible solution to the lack of tactile information. As audition is a relatively unused sense in automotive contexts, gesture sonification can contribute to reducing the cognitive load thanks to the proposed multisensory exploitation. Our approach consists in using a virtual object (VO) to sonify the consequences of the gesture rather than the gesture itself. This approach is motivated by an ecological point of view: Gestures do not make sound, but their consequences do. In this experiment, the aim was to identify efficient sound strategies, to transmit dynamic information of VOs to users through sound. The swipe gesture was chosen for this purpose, as it is commonly used in current and new interfaces. We chose two VO parameters to sonify, the hand-VO distance and the VO velocity. Two kinds of sound parameters can be chosen to sonify the VO behavior: Spectral or temporal parameters. Pitch and brightness were tested as spectral parameters, and amplitude modulation as a temporal parameter. Performances showed a positive effect of sound compared to a no-sound situation, revealing the usefulness of sounds to accomplish the task.

Keywords: Auditory feedback, gesture, sonification, sound perception, virtual object.

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235 Layer-by-Layer Deposition of Poly (Ethylene Imine) Nanolayers on Polypropylene Nonwoven Fabric. Electrostatic and Thermal Properties

Authors: Dawid Stawski, Silviya Halacheva, Dorota Zielińska

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The surface properties of many materials can be readily and predictably modified by the controlled deposition of thin layers containing appropriate functional groups and this research area is now a subject of widespread interest. The layer-by-layer (lbl) method involves depositing oppositely charged layers of polyelectrolytes onto the substrate material which are stabilized due to strong electrostatic forces between adjacent layers. This type of modification affords products that combine the properties of the original material with the superficial parameters of the new external layers. Through an appropriate selection of the deposited layers, the surface properties can be precisely controlled and readily adjusted in order to meet the requirements of the intended application. In the presented paper a variety of anionic (poly(acrylic acid)) and cationic (linear poly(ethylene imine), polymers were successfully deposited onto the polypropylene nonwoven using the lbl technique. The chemical structure of the surface before and after modification was confirmed by reflectance FTIR spectroscopy, volumetric analysis and selective dyeing tests. As a direct result of this work, new materials with greatly improved properties have been produced. For example, following a modification process significant changes in the electrostatic activity of a range of novel nanocomposite materials were observed. The deposition of polyelectrolyte nanolayers was found to strongly accelerate the loss of electrostatically generated charges and to increase considerably the thermal resistance properties of the modified fabric (the difference in T50% is over 20oC). From our results, a clear relationship between the type of polyelectrolyte layer deposited onto the flat fabric surface and the properties of the modified fabric was identified.

Keywords: Layer-by-layer technique, polypropylene nonwoven, surface modification, surface properties.

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234 Preferences of Electric Buses in Public Transport; Conclusions from Real Life Testing in Eight Swedish Municipalities

Authors: Sven Borén, Lisiana Nurhadi, Henrik Ny

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From a theoretical perspective, electric buses can be more sustainable and can be cheaper than fossil fuelled buses in city traffic. The authors have not found other studies based on actual urban public transport in Swedish winter climate. Further on, noise measurements from buses for the European market were found old. The aims of this follow-up study was therefore to test and possibly verify in a real-life environment how energy efficient and silent electric buses are, and then conclude on if electric buses are preferable to use in public transport. The Ebusco 2.0 electric bus, fitted with a 311 kWh battery pack, was used and the tests were carried out during November 2014-April 2015 in eight municipalities in the south of Sweden. Six tests took place in urban traffic and two took place in more of a rural traffic setting. The energy use for propulsion was measured via logging of the internal system in the bus and via an external charging meter. The average energy use turned out to be 8% less (0,96 kWh/km) than assumed in the earlier theoretical study. This rate allows for a 320 km range in public urban traffic. The interior of the bus was kept warm by a diesel heater (biodiesel will probably be used in a future operational traffic situation), which used 0,67 kWh/km in January. This verified that electric buses can be up to 25% cheaper when used in public transport in cities for about eight years. The noise was found to be lower, primarily during acceleration, than for buses with combustion engines in urban bus traffic. According to our surveys, most passengers and drivers appreciated the silent and comfortable ride and preferred electric buses rather than combustion engine buses. Bus operators and passenger transport executives were also positive to start using electric buses for public transport. The operators did however point out that procurement processes need to account for eventual risks regarding this new technology, along with personnel education. The study revealed that it is possible to establish a charging infrastructure for almost all studied bus lines. However, design of a charging infrastructure for each municipality requires further investigations, including electric grid capacity analysis, smart location of charging points, and tailored schedules to allow fast charging. In conclusion, electric buses proved to be a preferable alternative for all stakeholders involved in public bus transport in the studied municipalities. However, in order to electric buses to be a prominent support for sustainable development, they need to be charged either by stand-alone units or via an expansion of the electric grid, and the electricity should be made from new renewable sources.

Keywords: Sustainability, Electric, Bus, Noise, GreenCharge.

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233 Simulated Annealing Algorithm for Data Aggregation Trees in Wireless Sensor Networks and Comparison with Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Ladan Darougaran, Hossein Shahinzadeh, Hajar Ghotb, Leila Ramezanpour

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In ad hoc networks, the main issue about designing of protocols is quality of service, so that in wireless sensor networks the main constraint in designing protocols is limited energy of sensors. In fact, protocols which minimize the power consumption in sensors are more considered in wireless sensor networks. One approach of reducing energy consumption in wireless sensor networks is to reduce the number of packages that are transmitted in network. The technique of collecting data that combines related data and prevent transmission of additional packages in network can be effective in the reducing of transmitted packages- number. According to this fact that information processing consumes less power than information transmitting, Data Aggregation has great importance and because of this fact this technique is used in many protocols [5]. One of the Data Aggregation techniques is to use Data Aggregation tree. But finding one optimum Data Aggregation tree to collect data in networks with one sink is a NP-hard problem. In the Data Aggregation technique, related information packages are combined in intermediate nodes and form one package. So the number of packages which are transmitted in network reduces and therefore, less energy will be consumed that at last results in improvement of longevity of network. Heuristic methods are used in order to solve the NP-hard problem that one of these optimization methods is to solve Simulated Annealing problems. In this article, we will propose new method in order to build data collection tree in wireless sensor networks by using Simulated Annealing algorithm and we will evaluate its efficiency whit Genetic Algorithm.

Keywords: Data aggregation, wireless sensor networks, energy efficiency, simulated annealing algorithm, genetic algorithm.

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232 Urbanization and Income Inequality in Thailand

Authors: Acumsiri Tantiakrnpanit

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This paper aims to examine the relationship between urbanization and income inequality in Thailand during the period 2002–2020, using a panel of data for 76 provinces collected from Thailand’s National Statistical Office (Labor Force Survey: LFS), as well as geospatial data from the U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night band (VIIRS-DNB) satellite for 19 selected years. This paper employs two different definitions to identify urban areas: 1) Urban areas defined by Thailand's National Statistical Office (LFS), and 2) Urban areas estimated using nighttime light data from the DMSP and VIIRS-DNB satellite. The second method includes two sub-categories: 2.1) Determining urban areas by calculating nighttime light density with a population density of 300 people per square kilometer, and 2.2) Calculating urban areas based on nighttime light density corresponding to a population density of 1,500 people per square kilometer. The empirical analysis based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects models reveals a consistent U-shaped relationship between income inequality and urbanization. The findings from the econometric analysis demonstrate that urbanization or population density has a significant and negative impact on income inequality. Moreover, the square of urbanization shows a statistically significant positive impact on income inequality. Additionally, there is a negative association between logarithmically transformed income and income inequality. This paper also proposes the inclusion of satellite imagery, geospatial data, and spatial econometric techniques in future studies to conduct quantitative analysis of spatial relationships.

Keywords: Income inequality, nighttime light, population density, Thailand, urbanization.

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231 Oil-Water Two-Phase Flow Characteristics in Horizontal Pipeline – A Comprehensive CFD Study

Authors: Anand B. Desamala, Ashok Kumar Dasamahapatra, Tapas K. Mandal

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In the present work, detailed analysis on flow characteristics of a pair of immiscible liquids through horizontal pipeline is simulated by using ANSYS FLUENT 6.2. Moderately viscous oil and water (viscosity ratio = 107, density ratio = 0.89 and interfacial tension = 0.024 N/m) have been taken as system fluids for the study. Volume of Fluid (VOF) method has been employed by assuming unsteady flow, immiscible liquid pair, constant liquid properties, and co-axial flow. Meshing has been done using GAMBIT. Quadrilateral mesh type has been chosen to account for the surface tension effect more accurately. From the grid independent study, we have selected 47037 number of mesh elements for the entire geometry. Simulation successfully predicts slug, stratified wavy, stratified mixed and annular flow, except dispersion of oil in water, and dispersion of water in oil. Simulation results are validated with horizontal literature data and good conformity is observed. Subsequently, we have simulated the hydrodynamics (viz., velocity profile, area average pressure across a cross section and volume fraction profile along the radius) of stratified wavy and annular flow at different phase velocities. The simulation results show that in the annular flow, total pressure of the mixture decreases with increase in oil velocity due to the fact that pipe cross section is completely wetted with water. Simulated oil volume fraction shows maximum at the centre in core annular flow, whereas, in stratified flow, maximum value appears at upper side of the pipeline. These results are in accord with the actual flow configuration. Our findings could be useful in designing pipeline for transportation of crude oil.

Keywords: CFD, Horizontal pipeline, Oil-water flow, VOF technique.

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230 Systematic Mapping Study of Digitization and Analysis of Manufacturing Data

Authors: R. Clancy, M. Ahern, D. O’Sullivan, K. Bruton

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The manufacturing industry is currently undergoing a digital transformation as part of the mega-trend Industry 4.0. As part of this phase of the industrial revolution, traditional manufacturing processes are being combined with digital technologies to achieve smarter and more efficient production. To successfully digitally transform a manufacturing facility, the processes must first be digitized. This is the conversion of information from an analogue format to a digital format. The objective of this study was to explore the research area of digitizing manufacturing data as part of the worldwide paradigm, Industry 4.0. The formal methodology of a systematic mapping study was utilized to capture a representative sample of the research area and assess its current state. Specific research questions were defined to assess the key benefits and limitations associated with the digitization of manufacturing data. Research papers were classified according to the type of research and type of contribution to the research area. Upon analyzing 54 papers identified in this area, it was noted that 23 of the papers originated in Germany. This is an unsurprising finding as Industry 4.0 is originally a German strategy with supporting strong policy instruments being utilized in Germany to support its implementation. It was also found that the Fraunhofer Institute for Mechatronic Systems Design, in collaboration with the University of Paderborn in Germany, was the most frequent contributing Institution of the research papers with three papers published. The literature suggested future research directions and highlighted one specific gap in the area. There exists an unresolved gap between the data science experts and the manufacturing process experts in the industry. The data analytics expertise is not useful unless the manufacturing process information is utilized. A legitimate understanding of the data is crucial to perform accurate analytics and gain true, valuable insights into the manufacturing process. There lies a gap between the manufacturing operations and the information technology/data analytics departments within enterprises, which was borne out by the results of many of the case studies reviewed as part of this work. To test the concept of this gap existing, the researcher initiated an industrial case study in which they embedded themselves between the subject matter expert of the manufacturing process and the data scientist. Of the papers resulting from the systematic mapping study, 12 of the papers contributed a framework, another 12 of the papers were based on a case study, and 11 of the papers focused on theory. However, there were only three papers that contributed a methodology. This provides further evidence for the need for an industry-focused methodology for digitizing and analyzing manufacturing data, which will be developed in future research.

Keywords: Analytics, digitization, industry 4.0, manufacturing.

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229 Comparative Efficacy of Pomegranate Juice, Peel and Seed Extract in the Stabilization of Corn Oil under Accelerated Conditions

Authors: Zoi Konsoula

Abstract:

Antioxidant-rich extracts were prepared from pomegranate peels, seeds and juice using methanol and ethanol and their antioxidant activity was evaluated by the 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazine (DPPH) radical scavenging and Ferric Reducing Antioxidant Power (FRAP) method. Both analytical methods indicated a higher antioxidant activity in extracts prepared from peels, which was comparable to that of butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT). Furthermore, the antioxidant activity was correlated to the phenolic and flavonoid content of the various extracts. The antioxidant effectiveness of the extracts was also assessed using corn oil as the oxidation substrate. More specifically, preheated corn oil samples stabilized with extracts at a concentration of 250 ppm, 500 ppm or 1,000 ppm were subjected to accelerated aging (100 oC, 10 days) and the extent of oxidative alteration was followed by the measurement of the peroxide, conjugated dienes and trienes, as well as p-aniside value. BHT at its legal limit (200 ppm) served as standard besides the control sample. Results from the different parameters were in agreement with each other suggesting that pomegranate extracts can stabilize corn oil effectively under accelerated conditions, at all concentrations tested. However, the magnitude of oil stabilization depended strongly on the amount of extract added and this was positively correlated with their phenolic content. Pomegranate peel extracts, which exhibited the highest not only phenolic and flavonoid content but also antioxidant activity, were more potent in inhibiting oxidative deterioration. Both methanolic and ethanolic peel extracts at a concentration of 500 ppm exerted a stabilizing effect comparable to that of BHT, while at a concentration of 1000 ppm they exhibited higher stabilization efficiency in comparison to BHT. Finally, heating oil samples resulted in a time dependent decrease in their antioxidant capacity. Samples containing peel extracts appeared to retain their antioxidant capacity for a longer period, indicating that these extracts contained active compounds that offered superior antioxidant protection to corn oil.

Keywords: Antioxidant activity, corn oil, oxidative deterioration, pomegranate.

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228 Cluster Analysis of Retailers’ Benefits from Their Cooperation with Manufacturers: Business Models Perspective

Authors: M. K. Witek-Hajduk, T. M. Napiórkowski

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A number of studies discussed the topic of benefits of retailers-manufacturers cooperation and coopetition. However, there are only few publications focused on the benefits of cooperation and coopetition between retailers and their suppliers of durable consumer goods; especially in the context of business model of cooperating partners. This paper aims to provide a clustering approach to segment retailers selling consumer durables according to the benefits they obtain from their cooperation with key manufacturers and differentiate the said retailers’ in term of the business models of cooperating partners. For the purpose of the study, a survey (with a CATI method) collected data on 603 consumer durables retailers present on the Polish market. Retailers are clustered both, with hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods. Five distinctive groups of consumer durables’ retailers are (based on the studied benefits) identified using the two-stage clustering approach. The clusters are then characterized with a set of exogenous variables, key of which are business models employed by the retailer and its partnering key manufacturer. The paper finds that the a combination of a medium sized retailer classified as an Integrator with a chiefly domestic capital and a manufacturer categorized as a Market Player will yield the highest benefits. On the other side of the spectrum is medium sized Distributor retailer with solely domestic capital – in this case, the business model of the cooperating manufactrer appears to be irreleveant. This paper is the one of the first empirical study using cluster analysis on primary data that defines the types of cooperation between consumer durables’ retailers and manufacturers – their key suppliers. The analysis integrates a perspective of both retailers’ and manufacturers’ business models and matches them with individual and joint benefits.

Keywords: Business model, cooperation, cluster analysis, retailer-manufacturer relationships.

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227 A Case Study on Experiences of Clinical Preceptors in the Undergraduate Nursing Program

Authors: Jacqueline M. Dias, Amina A Khowaja

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Clinical education is one of the most important components of a nursing curriculum as it develops the students’ cognitive, psychomotor and affective skills. Clinical teaching ensures the integration of knowledge into practice. As the numbers of students increase in the field of nursing coupled with the faculty shortage, clinical preceptors are the best choice to ensure student learning in the clinical settings. The clinical preceptor role has been introduced in the undergraduate nursing programme. In Pakistan, this role emerged due to a faculty shortage. Initially, two clinical preceptors were hired. This study will explore clinical preceptors views and experiences of precepting Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BScN) students in an undergraduate program. A case study design was used. As case studies explore a single unit of study such as a person or very small number of subjects; the two clinical preceptors were fundamental to the study and served as a single case. Qualitative data were obtained through an iterative process using in depth interviews and written accounts from reflective journals that were kept by the clinical preceptors. The findings revealed that the clinical preceptors were dedicated to their roles and responsibilities. Another, key finding was that clinical preceptors’ prior knowledge and clinical experience were valuable assets to perform their role effectively. The clinical preceptors found their new role innovative and challenging; it was stressful at the same time. Findings also revealed that in the clinical agencies there were unclear expectations and role ambiguity. Furthermore, clinical preceptors had difficulty integrating theory into practice in the clinical area and they had difficulty in giving feedback to the students. Although this study is localized to one university, generalizations can be drawn from the results. The key findings indicate that the role of a clinical preceptor is demanding and stressful. Clinical preceptors need preparation prior to precepting students on clinicals. Also, institutional support is fundamental for their acceptance. This paper focuses on the views and experiences of clinical preceptors undertaking a newly established role and resonates with the literature. The following recommendations are drawn to strengthen the role of the clinical preceptors: A structured program for clinical preceptors is needed along with mentorship. Clinical preceptors should be provided with formal training in teaching and learning with emphasis on clinical teaching and giving feedback to students. Additionally, for improving integration of theory into practice, clinical modules should be provided ahead of the clinical. In spite of all the challenges, ten more clinical preceptors have been hired as the faculty shortage continues to persist.

Keywords: Baccalaureate nursing education, clinical education, clinical preceptors, nursing curriculum.

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226 A Retrospective Drug Utilization Study of Antiplatelet Drugs in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease

Authors: K. Jyothi, T. S. Mohamed Saleem, L. Vineela, C. Gopinath, K. B. Yadavender Reddy

Abstract:

Objective: Acute coronary syndrome is a clinical condition encompassing ST segments elevation myocardial infraction, Non ST segment is elevation myocardial infraction and un stable angina is characterized by ruptured coronary plaque, stress and myocardial injury. Angina pectoris is a pressure like pain in the chest that is induced by exertion or stress and relived with in the minute after cessation of effort or using sublingual nitroglycerin. The present research was undertaken to study the drug utilization pattern of antiplatelet drugs for the ischemic heart disease in a tertiary care hospital. Method: The present study is retrospective drug utilization study and study period is 6months. The data is collected from the discharge case sheet of general medicine department from medical department Rajiv Gandhi institute of medical sciences, Kadapa. The tentative sample size fixed was 250 patients. Out of 250 cases 19 cases was excluded because of unrelated data. Results: A total of 250 prescriptions were collected for the study according to the inclusion criteria 233 prescriptions were diagnosed with ischemic heart disease 17 prescriptions were excluded due to unrelated information. out of 233 prescriptions 128 are male (54.9%) and 105 patients are were female (45%). According to the gender distribution, the prevalence of ischemic heart disease in males are 90 (70.31%) and females are 39 (37.1%). In the same way the prevalence of ischemic heart disease along with cerebrovascular disease in males are 39 (29.6%) and females are 66 (62.6%). Conclusion: We found that 94.8% of drug utilization of antiplatelet drugs was achieved in the Rajiv Gandhi institute of medical sciences, Kadapa from 2011-2012.

Keywords: Angina pectoris, aspirin, clopidogrel, myocardial infarction.

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225 Improving 99mTc-tetrofosmin Myocardial Perfusion Images by Time Subtraction Technique

Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Hayato Ishimura, Masao Miyagawa, Teruhito Mochizuki

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Quantitative measurement of myocardium perfusion is possible with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using a semiconductor detector. However, accumulation of 99mTc-tetrofosmin in the liver may make it difficult to assess that accurately in the inferior myocardium. Our idea is to reduce the high accumulation in the liver by using dynamic SPECT imaging and a technique called time subtraction. We evaluated the performance of a new SPECT system with a cadmium-zinc-telluride solid-state semi- conductor detector (Discovery NM 530c; GE Healthcare). Our system acquired list-mode raw data over 10 minutes for a typical patient. From the data, ten SPECT images were reconstructed, one for every minute of acquired data. Reconstruction with the semiconductor detector was based on an implementation of a 3-D iterative Bayesian reconstruction algorithm. We studied 20 patients with coronary artery disease (mean age 75.4 ± 12.1 years; range 42-86; 16 males and 4 females). In each subject, 259 MBq of 99mTc-tetrofosmin was injected intravenously. We performed both a phantom and a clinical study using dynamic SPECT. An approximation to a liver-only image is obtained by reconstructing an image from the early projections during which time the liver accumulation dominates (0.5~2.5 minutes SPECT image-5~10 minutes SPECT image). The extracted liver-only image is then subtracted from a later SPECT image that shows both the liver and the myocardial uptake (5~10 minutes SPECT image-liver-only image). The time subtraction of liver was possible in both a phantom and the clinical study. The visualization of the inferior myocardium was improved. In past reports, higher accumulation in the myocardium due to the overlap of the liver is un-diagnosable. Using our time subtraction method, the image quality of the 99mTc-tetorofosmin myocardial SPECT image is considerably improved.

Keywords: 99mTc-tetrofosmin, dynamic SPECT, time subtraction, semiconductor detector.

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224 Integration of Big Data to Predict Transportation for Smart Cities

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: Big data, bus headway prediction, machine learning, public transportation.

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223 Microalbuminuria in Essential Hypertension

Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar, Sandeep HM, Biradar MS

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Essential hypertension (HTN) usually clusters with other cardiovascular risk factors such as age, overweight, diabetes, insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. The target organ damage (TOD) such as left ventricular hypertrophy, microalbuminuria (MA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke and cognitive dysfunction takes place early in course of hypertension. Though the prevalence of hypertension is high in India, the relationship between microalbuminuria and target organ damage in hypertension is not well studied. This study aim at detecting MA in essential hypertension and its relation to severity of HTN, duration of HTN, body mass index (BMI), age and TOD such as HTN retinopathy and acute coronary syndrome The present study was done in 100 patients of essential hypertension non diabetics admitted to B.L.D.E.University-s Sri B.M.Patil Medical College, Bijapur, from October 2008 to April 2011. The patients underwent detailed history and clinical examination. Early morning 5 ml of urine sample was collected & MA was estimated by immunoturbidometry method. The relationship of MA with the duration & severity of HTN, BMI, age, sex and TOD's like hypertensive retinopathy, ACS was assessed by univariate analysis. The prevalence of MA in this study was found to be 63 %. In that 42% were male & 21% were female. In this study a significant association between MA and the duration of hypertension (p = 0.036) & (OR =0.438). Longer the duration of hypertension, more possibility of microalbumin in urine. Also there was a significant association between severity of hypertension and MA (p=0.045) and (OR=0.093). MA was positive in 50 (79.4%) patients out of 63, whose blood pressure was >160/100 mm Hg. In this study a significant association between MA and the grades of hypertensive retinopathy (p =0.011) and acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.041) (OR =2.805). Gender and BMI did not pose high risk for MA in this study.The prevalence of MA in essential hypertension is high in this part of the community and MA will increase the risk of developing target organ damage.Early screening of patients with essential hypertension for MA and aggressive management of positive cases might reduce the burden of chronic kidney diseases and cardiovascular diseases in the community.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome, Essential hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Target organ damage

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222 Precipitation Intensity: Duration Based Threshold Analysis for Initiation of Landslides in Upper Alaknanda Valley

Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

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The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: Landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, slope, inventory, early warning system.

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221 Performance Management of Tangible Assets within the Balanced Scorecard and Interactive Business Decision Tools

Authors: Raymond K. Jonkers

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The present study investigated approaches and techniques to enhance strategic management governance and decision making within the framework of a performance-based balanced scorecard. The review of best practices from strategic, program, process, and systems engineering management provided for a holistic approach toward effective outcome-based capability management. One technique, based on factorial experimental design methods, was used to develop an empirical model. This model predicted the degree of capability effectiveness and is dependent on controlled system input variables and their weightings. These variables represent business performance measures, captured within a strategic balanced scorecard. The weighting of these measures enhances the ability to quantify causal relationships within balanced scorecard strategy maps. The focus in this study was on the performance of tangible assets within the scorecard rather than the traditional approach of assessing performance of intangible assets such as knowledge and technology. Tangible assets are represented in this study as physical systems, which may be thought of as being aboard a ship or within a production facility. The measures assigned to these systems include project funding for upgrades against demand, system certifications achieved against those required, preventive maintenance to corrective maintenance ratios, and material support personnel capacity against that required for supporting respective systems. The resultant scorecard is viewed as complimentary to the traditional balanced scorecard for program and performance management. The benefits from these scorecards are realized through the quantified state of operational capabilities or outcomes. These capabilities are also weighted in terms of priority for each distinct system measure and aggregated and visualized in terms of overall state of capabilities achieved. This study proposes the use of interactive controls within the scorecard as a technique to enhance development of alternative solutions in decision making. These interactive controls include those for assigning capability priorities and for adjusting system performance measures, thus providing for what-if scenarios and options in strategic decision-making. In this holistic approach to capability management, several cross functional processes were highlighted as relevant amongst the different management disciplines. In terms of assessing an organization’s ability to adopt this approach, consideration was given to the P3M3 management maturity model.

Keywords: Outcome based management, performance management, lifecycle costs, balanced scorecard.

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220 Prioritization Assessment of Housing Development Risk Factors: A Fuzzy Hierarchical Process-Based Approach

Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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219 Validation on 3D Surface Roughness Algorithm for Measuring Roughness of Psoriasis Lesion

Authors: M.H. Ahmad Fadzil, Esa Prakasa, Hurriyatul Fitriyah, Hermawan Nugroho, Azura Mohd Affandi, S.H. Hussein

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Psoriasis is a widespread skin disease affecting up to 2% population with plaque psoriasis accounting to about 80%. It can be identified as a red lesion and for the higher severity the lesion is usually covered with rough scale. Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scoring is the gold standard method for measuring psoriasis severity. Scaliness is one of PASI parameter that needs to be quantified in PASI scoring. Surface roughness of lesion can be used as a scaliness feature, since existing scale on lesion surface makes the lesion rougher. The dermatologist usually assesses the severity through their tactile sense, therefore direct contact between doctor and patient is required. The problem is the doctor may not assess the lesion objectively. In this paper, a digital image analysis technique is developed to objectively determine the scaliness of the psoriasis lesion and provide the PASI scaliness score. Psoriasis lesion is modelled by a rough surface. The rough surface is created by superimposing a smooth average (curve) surface with a triangular waveform. For roughness determination, a polynomial surface fitting is used to estimate average surface followed by a subtraction between rough and average surface to give elevation surface (surface deviations). Roughness index is calculated by using average roughness equation to the height map matrix. The roughness algorithm has been tested to 444 lesion models. From roughness validation result, only 6 models can not be accepted (percentage error is greater than 10%). These errors occur due the scanned image quality. Roughness algorithm is validated for roughness measurement on abrasive papers at flat surface. The Pearson-s correlation coefficient of grade value (G) of abrasive paper and Ra is -0.9488, its shows there is a strong relation between G and Ra. The algorithm needs to be improved by surface filtering, especially to overcome a problem with noisy data.

Keywords: psoriasis, roughness algorithm, polynomial surfacefitting.

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218 Urban Waste Water Governance in South Africa: A Case Study of Stellenbosch

Authors: R. Malisa, E. Schwella, K. I. Theletsane

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Due to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for water in South Africa is inevitably surpassing supply. To address similar challenges globally, there has been a paradigm shift from conventional urban waste water management “government” to a “governance” paradigm. From the governance paradigm, Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) principle emerged. This principle emphasizes efficient urban waste water treatment and production of high-quality recyclable effluent. In so doing mimicking natural water systems, in their processes of recycling water efficiently, and averting depletion of natural water resources.  The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of shifting the current urban waste water management approach from a “government” paradigm towards “governance”. The study was conducted through Interactive Management soft systems research methodology which follows a qualitative research design. A case study methodology was employed, guided by realism research philosophy. Qualitative data gathered were analyzed through interpretative structural modelling using Concept Star for Professionals Decision-Making tools (CSPDM) version 3.64.  The constructed model deduced that the main drivers in shifting the Stellenbosch municipal urban waste water management towards IUWM “governance” principles are mainly social elements characterized by overambitious expectations of the public on municipal water service delivery, mis-interpretation of the constitution on access to adequate clean water and sanitation as a human right and perceptions on recycling water by different communities. Inadequate public participation also emerged as a strong driver. However, disruptive events such as draught may play a positive role in raising an awareness on the value of water, resulting in a shift on the perceptions on recycled water. Once the social elements are addressed, the alignment of governance and administration elements towards IUWM are achievable. Hence, the point of departure for the desired paradigm shift is the change of water service authorities and serviced communities’ perceptions and behaviors towards shifting urban waste water management approaches from “government” to “governance” paradigm.

Keywords: Integrated urban water management, urban water system, waste water governance, waste water treatment works.

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