Search results for: Constitutional Court of Republic of Croatia
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 307

Search results for: Constitutional Court of Republic of Croatia

127 The Comparison of Competitiveness of Selected Countries of the European Economic Area

Authors: Ingrid Majerová, Michaela Horúcková

Abstract:

The concept of competitiveness is currently very frequently used term. However, the interpretation of its essence is different. In this paper, one of the many concepts of competitiveness will be analyzed and that is macroeconomic competitiveness, which is understood as a process, which is based on the productivity growth through the growth of key macroeconomic indicators such as standards of living and employment, where all of these variables must have a sustainable basis. Given the competition is a relative quantity it must be constantly compared with the development of competitiveness in other economies or regions. And this comparison method is also used in the article that compares the macrocompetitiveness of selected economies of the European Economic Area – the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria, Switzerland and Germany. The aim of the paper is to verify the hypothesis concerning the direct correlation between the size of the economy and its competitiveness.

Keywords: Comparison, Competitiveness, European Economic Area, Global Competitiveness Index, Immeasurable Indicators of Competitiveness, Macro-competitiveness.

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126 Knowledge Continuity as a Part of Business Continuity Management

Authors: H. Urbancova, J. Urbanec

Abstract:

Today the intangible assets are the capital of knowledge and are the most important and the most valuable resource for organizations. All employees have knowledge independently of the kind of jobs they do. Knowledge is thus an asset, which influences business operations. The objective of this article is to identify knowledge continuity as an objective of business continuity management. The article has been prepared based on the analysis of secondary sources and the evaluation of primary sources of data by means of a quantitative survey conducted in the Czech Republic. The conclusion of the article is that organizations that apply business continuity management do not focus on the preservation of the knowledge of key employees. Organizations ensure knowledge continuity only intuitively, on a random basis, non-systematically and discontinuously. The non-ensuring of knowledge continuity represents a threat of loss of key knowledge for organizations and can also negatively affect business continuity.

Keywords: Business continuity, knowledge, organizations, survey.

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125 Transparency of Audit Firms in Croatia

Authors: Marko Čular

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to raise general awareness of transparency importance for audit firms and for audit services’ users. This paper analyzes transparency of audit firms that audited financial statements of listed companies, for year 2011 and 2012. We use this two years because in the meantime Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants has been adopted. This paper investigates whether transparency reports of audit firms are in accordance with the Croatian Audit Act and whether there is a difference on transparency in observed years. For this paper quality index of transparency report and financial indicators of audit firms are used to get conclusion about condition of audit firms transparency reporting. Results of our study indicate that audit firms are not fully transparent, looking for both years. Transparency of audit firms in 2012 has improved significantly, compared with transparency in 2011.

Keywords: Transparency report, Index quality of transparency report, Croatian Audit Act, Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants.

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124 Public-Public Partnership and Tourism Development Strategy: The Case of Municipality of Gazi Baba in Macedonia

Authors: Dejan Metodijeski, Elizabeta Mitreva, Nako Taskov, Oliver Filiposki

Abstract:

Tourism development strategies are an important link in the tourism policy that is used to make its management better and easier. A public-public partnership (PUP) is a partnership between two or more public authorities or between a public authority and any non-profit organization with the goal of providing services and facilities or transferring technical skills. The paper presents this kind of partnership between two public authorities in Macedonia, the Municipality of Gazi Baba on one hand, and the University of Goce Delcev on the other. The main idea of this partnership is the development of a tourism strategy for the Municipality of Gazi Baba by the University on one side, and on the other, the construction of a mini park in the court of the University by the Municipality. This paper presents the causes and analyzes the procedures relating to this partnership and the methodology of the tourism development strategy. It contains a relevant literature review related to PUPs and tourism development strategy. The results and benefits of this partnership are presented with figures.

Keywords: Public-public partnership, tourism development strategy, municipality of Gazi Baba, Macedonia.

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123 Family and Young Learners´ Scholastic Success

Authors: Helena Vomackova

Abstract:

This contribution examines the relationship between the family environment and the level of young pupils’ scholastic success. It comments on the partial results of a research probe carried out in the year 2012 on a sample of 412 Czech Republic primary school pupils of the fourth, fifth and sixths forms within the Project IGA 43 201 15 0004 01. The key links of this project were monitored in relation to the highest education level achieved by the learners´ parents, as well as to the type of family it is (in particular its ability to function), to component factors specific to the family climate (their willingness to share information, communication, parental control) and, finally, to the number of children in the family as an important socialization constituent.

Keywords: Family environment factors, scholastic success, parents’ education, family type, family climate.

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122 Application of Kaftan Cloths from Ottoman Military Period to Nowadays World

Authors: R. Moosazadeh

Abstract:

Among the Ottomans, dress was one of the means of expression of the society to which an individual was belonged, and as much as the cloth of the dress, its color reflected the individual's class. Those cloths, and the type and color of the dresses that were worn in the court, were forbidden to ordinary people. In addition, whatever the person's position was, his/her clothes were changed according to that special time and position. The clothes that were worn on trips and ceremonies were different from ordinary clothes in everyday life. At the time of the Ottoman Empire and the old Turkey, the miniature forms, and historical manuscripts were an indicator of the time of that day, and each of them is used as a document from the history of that time for today. The method used in this study is descriptive-analytical and the data collection procedure has been done through library. In this article, the cloth, shape and form of the Kaftan is considered. Firstly, a summary of the history and an explanation of this style of dressing and the importance of it at that time are considered. Finally, by the completion of this research, some of the findings of this research are mentioned, such as the distinctive features of this style and the process of updating it to use it in the present era.

Keywords: Kaftan, cloth, Ottoman, Turkey.

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121 Efficient Copy-Move Forgery Detection for Digital Images

Authors: Somayeh Sadeghi, Hamid A. Jalab, Sajjad Dadkhah

Abstract:

Due to availability of powerful image processing software and improvement of human computer knowledge, it becomes easy to tamper images. Manipulation of digital images in different fields like court of law and medical imaging create a serious problem nowadays. Copy-move forgery is one of the most common types of forgery which copies some part of the image and pastes it to another part of the same image to cover an important scene. In this paper, a copy-move forgery detection method proposed based on Fourier transform to detect forgeries. Firstly, image is divided to same size blocks and Fourier transform is performed on each block. Similarity in the Fourier transform between different blocks provides an indication of the copy-move operation. The experimental results prove that the proposed method works on reasonable time and works well for gray scale and colour images. Computational complexity reduced by using Fourier transform in this method.

Keywords: Copy-Move forgery, Digital Forensics, Image Forgery.

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120 A “Greedy“ Czech Manufacturing Case

Authors: George Cristian Gruia, Michal Kavan

Abstract:

The article describes a case study on one of Czech Republic-s manufacturing middle size enterprises (ME), where due to the European financial crisis, production lines had to be redesigned and optimized in order to minimize the total costs of the production of goods. It is considered an optimization problem of minimizing the total cost of the work load, according to the costs of the possible locations of the workplaces, with an application of the Greedy algorithm and a partial analogy to a Set Packing Problem. The displacement of working tables in a company should be as a one-toone monotone increasing function in order for the total costs of production of the goods to be at minimum. We use a heuristic approach with greedy algorithm for solving this linear optimization problem, regardless the possible greediness which may appear and we apply it in a Czech ME.

Keywords: Czech, greedy algorithm, minimize, total costs.

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119 Analysis of Road Repairs in Undermined Areas

Authors: Tomáš Seidler, Marek Mihola, Denisa Cihlarova

Abstract:

The article presents analysis results of maps of expected subsidence in undermined areas for road repair management. The analysis was done in the area of Karvina district in the Czech Republic, including undermined areas with ongoing deep mining activities or finished deep mining in years 2003 - 2009. The article discusses the possibilities of local road maintenance authorities to determine areas that will need most repairs in the future with limited data available. Using the expected subsidence maps new map of surface curvature was calculated. Combined with road maps and historical data about repairs the result came for five main categories of undermined areas, proving very simple tool for management.

Keywords: GIS, Map of Subsidence, Road, Undermined Area

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118 Strategic Management Methods in Non-profit Making Organization

Authors: P. Řehoř, D. Holátová, V. Doležalová

Abstract:

Paper deals with analysis of strategic management methods in non-profit making organization in the Czech Republic. Strategic management represents an aggregate of methods and approaches that can be applied for managing organizations - in this article the organizations which associate owners and keepers of nonstate forest properties. Authors use these methods of strategic management: analysis of stakeholders, SWOT analysis and questionnaire inquiries. The questionnaire was distributed electronically via e-mail. In October 2013 we obtained data from a total of 84 questionnaires. Based on the results the authors recommend the using of confrontation strategy which improves the competitiveness of non-profit making organizations.

Keywords: Strategic management, non-profit making organization, strategy analysis, SWOT analysis, strategy, competitiveness.

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117 A Comparative Analysis of Insolvency Proceedings in France, Germany and Slovak Republic

Authors: Zuzana Crhová, Marie Paseková

Abstract:

This contribution aims to compare legislation adjusting the course of insolvency proceedings in France, Germany and Slovakia. On the basis of an investigation of the legislative adjustment of this problem, an attempt is made to ascertain in the given countries the extent to which the outcome of the entire proceedings is influenced by legislation and to determine the fundamental moments that influence costs, recovery rate and the duration of proceedings. A comparative analysis was utilized in order to achieve the set goal. The results of the survey could be used to improve legislation so as to lead in the best and most expedient way to a departure from the market of those subjects that are for economic reasons unable to continue with their activities whilst burdening the entire process with the lowest possible costs, which would lead to a high level of satisfaction for creditors. 

Keywords: Costs, Insolvency Proceeding, Recovery Rate, Time.

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116 Using High Performance Computing for Online Flood Monitoring and Prediction

Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

Abstract:

The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: Flood prediction process, High performance computing, Online flood prediction system, Parallelization.

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115 Human Resource Management in the Innovation Activity in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Authors: A. T. Omarova, G. N. Nakipova

Abstract:

This article discusses the principles of object-oriented human capital development using the technology program. Also the article includes priorities of the strategy of industrial-innovative development of Kazakhstan in conditions of integration activity into the world community. The article shows the tasks of human resource management in the implementation of industrial and innovation development, particularities of Kazakhstan's theory of management staff, as well as due to the specificity of the Kazakhstan authorities. In the article had considered the factors which are affecting to the people in the organization and also had considered mechanisms of HRM within organization in the conditions of innovative development in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Programming, management of human resources, innovation, investment, innovation process, HRD model, innovative development, integration, management, transformation, economic potential, competitiveness.

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114 Analysis of Take-off Phase of Somersaults with Twisting along the Longitudinal Body Axis

Authors: P. Hedbávný, M. Kalichová

Abstract:

The contribution deals with problem of take-off phase of back somersault with twisting with various numbers of twists along longitudinal body axis. The aim was to evaluate the changes in angles during transition phase from back handspring to back somersault using 3D kinematic analysis of the somersaults. We used Simi Motion System for the 3D kinematic analysis of the observed gymnastic element performed by Czech Republic female representative and 2008 Summer Olympic Games participant. The results showed that the higher the number of twists, the smaller the touchdown angle in which the gymnasts lands on the pad in the beginning of take-off phase. In back somersault with one twist (180°) the average angle is 54°, in 1080° back somersault the average angle is 45.9°. These results may help to improve technical training of sports gymnasts.

Keywords: back somersault with twisting, biomechanicalanalysis, take-off

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113 Bank Loans and the Business Cycle: The Case of the Czech Republic

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Jan Cernohorsky

Abstract:

This article aims to evaluate the impact of loans provided within the Czech banking sector on the growth of the Czech economy. The article is based on research of current scientific findings in respect to bank loans and economic development. The paper is based on data taken from the Czech Statistical Office on the development of the gross domestic product and data from the Czech National Bank on the development of loans from the period 2004-2015. Links between selected variables are tested using Granger causality tests. The results calculated confirm the hypothesis of the impact of the loans on economic growth, with a six-month delay. The results thus correspond to the standard economic findings and results of most previous studies.

Keywords: Bank, business cycle, economic growth, loans.

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112 Rapid Development of Sport and Sport Management at the Beginning of the Third Millennium

Authors: Irena Durdová

Abstract:

Most people know through experience and intuition what the word „sport“ means. Sport includes a combination of these configurations when it involves team competitions, tournaments, or matches in dual sports or individual sports. Sport management - it is an area of professional endeavor in which a variety of sport-related managerial careers exist and it is also an area of academic professional preparation. Exists three unique aspects of sport management: sport marketing, sport enterprise financial structures and sport industry career paths. The aim of the paper was to highlight the growing importance of sport in contemporary society, especially to emphasize its socio-economic benefits and refer to the development of sport management and marketing. The article has shown that sport contributes 2-3% to gross domestic product in the Czech Republic and that the demand for experts, specialists educated for the sports manager profession is growing.

Keywords: management, sport, sport management, marketing

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111 User Acceptance of Location-based Services

Authors: Neven Vrček, Goran Bubaš, Neven Bosilj

Abstract:

Location-based services (LBS) exploit the known location of a user to provide services dependent on their geographic context and personalized needs [1]. The development and arrival of broadband mobile data networks supported with mobile terminals equipped with new location technologies like GPS have finally created opportunities for implementation of LBS applications. But, from the other side, collecting location information data in general raises privacy concerns. This paper presents results from two surveys of LBS acceptance in Croatia. The first survey was administered on 181 students, and the second extended survey involved pattern of 180 Croatian citizens. We developed questionnaire which consists of descriptions of 15 different applications with scale which measures perceptions and attitudes of users towards these applications. We report the results to identify potential commercial applications for LBS in B2C segment. Our findings suggest that some types of applications like emergency&safety services and navigation have significantly higher rate of acceptance than other types.

Keywords: Acceptance, location-based services, m-application.

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110 Questions in the School

Authors: Jana M. Havigerová, Jiří Haviger

Abstract:

Paper deals with the topic of questions as important components of information behavior in the school. By analyzing the Corpus Schola2010, the state of contemporary education in terms of questioning is proven unsatisfactory: 80% of the questions are asked by teachers; most of teacher-s questions are asked at the beginning of the first grade, than their number decreases and is settling down on 80±10 questions per lesson. The average number of questions within one lesson per one pupil is generally less than one whole question. The highest values are achieved in the first, sixth, eighth and tenth grade,, i.e. in the transition years in which pupils are moving into higher levels of education and every following year it declines. We can state Czech school do not support questioning and question skill of their pupils, thereby typical Czech schools are neglecting the development of thinking, reasoning and cooperation of their pupils.

Keywords: information behavior, questions, primary and secondary education, Czech Republic

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109 Towards Achieving Energy Efficiency in Kazakhstan

Authors: Aigerim Uyzbayeva, Valeriya Tyo, Nurlan Ibrayev

Abstract:

Kazakhstan is currently one of the dynamically developing states in its region. The stable growth in all sectors of the economy leads to a corresponding increase in energy consumption. Thus country consumes significant amount of energy due to the high level of industrialisation and the presence of energy-intensive manufacturing such as mining and metallurgy which in turn leads to low energy efficiency. With allowance for this the Government has set several priorities to adopt a transition of Republic of Kazakhstan to a “green economy”. This article provides an overview of Kazakhstan’s energy efficiency situation in for the period of 1991- 2014. First, the dynamics of production and consumption of conventional energy resources are given. Second, the potential of renewable energy sources is summarised followed by the description of GHG emissions trends in the country. Third, Kazakhstan’ national initiatives, policies and locally implemented projects in the field of energy efficiency are described.

Keywords: Energy efficiency in Kazakhstan, greenhouse gases, renewable energy, sustainable development.

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108 Possibilities of Sewage Sludge Application in the Conditions of Slovak Republic

Authors: Peter Takáč, Dana Šimová, Terézia Szabová, Tomáš Bakalár

Abstract:

The direct sewage sludge application is a relative cheap method for their liquidation. In the past heavy metal contents increase in soils treated with sewage sludge was observed. In 2003 there was acceptance on act n.188/2003 about sewage sludge application on soils. The basic philosophy of act is a safety of the environmental proof of sludge application on soils. The samples of soils from wastewater treatment plant (WTP) Poprad (35) and WTP Michalovce (33 samples) were analyzed which were chosen for sludge application on soils. According to the results only 14 areas for Poprad and 25 areas for Michalovce are suitable for sludge application according to act No. 188/2003. The application dose of sludge was calculated 50 t.ha-1 or 75 t. ha-1 once in 5 years to ensure that heavy metal contents in treated soils will be kept.

Keywords: Environmental safety, heavy metals in soils, sewagesludge application.

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107 Analysis and Design of Security Oriented Communication System

Authors: Jiří Barta

Abstract:

The paper deals with results of a project “Interoperability Workplaces to Support Teaching of Security Management in a Computer Network". This project is focused on the perspectives and possibilities of "new approaches" to education, training and crisis communication of rescue teams in the Czech Republic. It means that common technologies considering new perspectives are used to educate selected members of crisis management. The main part concentrates on possibilities of application of new technology and computer-aided tools to education and training of Integrated Rescue System teams.This project uses the COST principle for the creation of specialized centers and for all communication between these workplaces.

Keywords: Communication of Crisis Management, Information System, Interoperability, specializedcenter, Security Oriented Information System.

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106 Carrying Out the Steps of Decision Making Process in Concrete Organization

Authors: Eva Štěpánková

Abstract:

The decision-making process is theoretically clearly defined. Generally, it includes the problem identification and analysis, data gathering, goals and criteria setting, alternatives development and optimal alternative choice and its implementation. In practice however, various modifications of the theoretical decision-making process can occur. The managers can consider some of the phases to be too complicated or unfeasible and thus they do not carry them out and conversely some of the steps can be overestimated. The aim of the paper is to reveal and characterize the perception of the individual phases of decision-making process by the managers. The research is concerned with managers in the military environment – commanders. Quantitative survey is focused cross-sectionally in the individual levels of management of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. On the total number of 135 respondents the analysis focuses on which of the decision-making process phases are problematic or not carried out in practice and which are again perceived to be the easiest. Then it is examined the reasons of the findings.

Keywords: Decision making, decision making process, decision problems.

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105 Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Positive Psychological Capital on Employees Outcomes: The Moderating Role of Tenure

Authors: Hyeondal Jeong, Yoonjung Baek

Abstract:

This research examines the effects of positive psychological capital (or PsyCap) on employee’s outcomes (satisfaction, commitment, organizational citizenship behavior, innovation behavior and individual creativity). This study conducted a meta-analysis of articles published in the Republic of Korea. As a result, positive psychological capital has a positive effect on the behavior of employees. Heterogeneity was identified among the studies included in the analysis and the context factors were analyzed; the study proposes contextual factors such as team tenure. The moderating effect of team tenure was not statistically significant. The implications were discussed based on the analysis results.

Keywords: Positive psychological capital, satisfaction, commitment, OCB, creativity, meta-analysis.

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104 The National Security Assurance of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Authors: Sholpan Zhandossova, Erden Ordabek, Yelbolsyn Nazarov

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the article analyzes the national security as a scientific and practical problem, characterized by the state's political institutions to ensure effective action to maintain optimal conditions for the existence and development of the individual and society. National security, as a category of political science reflects the relationship between the security to the nation, including public relations and social consciousness, social institutions and their activities, ensuring the realization of national interests in a particular historical situation. In national security are three security levels: individual, society and state. Their role and place determined by the nature of social relations, political systems, the presence of internal and external threats. In terms of content in the concept of national security is taken to provide political, economic, military, environmental, information security and safety of the cultural development of the nation.

Keywords: Kazakhstan, national security, religious extremism

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103 Millennials' Career Expectations: Exploring Attitudes and Individual Differences

Authors: Lovorka Galetić, Maja Klindžić, Ivana Načinović Braje

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Generation Y individuals or Millennials are known for their unique views, work values and motivational needs which implies that, in order to attract and retain those individuals, activities in the area of career management should be given special attention by HRM managers. After a theoretical background on Millennials’ life and work attitudes, an empirical research on career preferences of Millennials in Croatia was described. Empirical research was conducted among 249 members of generation Y. The data analysis revealed that respondents generally perceive promotion opportunities as the most important career aspect; however, job security and work-life balance are almost as important. Furthermore, it was shown that Generation Y is not necessarily a homogenous group. More precisely, women assign greater importance than men to work-life balance and job security. Therefore, HRM managers should adapt career planning activities not only with respect to generational preferences, but individual characteristics as well.

Keywords: Career, individual differences, millennials, work values.

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102 Mercury and Selenium Levels in Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) Fished in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Republic of Seychelles

Authors: Stephanie Hollanda, Nathalie Bodin, Carine Churlaud, Paco Bustamante

Abstract:

Total mercury (Hg), selenium (Se) and Hg-Se ratios were analyzed in the white muscle, liver and gonads of swordfish, in order to compare concentration between the different tissues and sex, and also the effect of size (fork length). The results show significant difference between tissue types, with the liver having the highest concentration of both Hg and Se. Positive significant correlations between moles of Hg and Se were obtained in the liver and white muscle, but no relationship was obtained in the gonads. No difference in the concentration of Hg and Se was obtained between the sexes in the tissue types, except for Hg in the gonads, which were found to be higher in males. Significant negative relationships were obtained when the Hg-Se ratio was plotted against fork length in all three tissue types.

Keywords: Bioaccumulation, large pelagic fish, mercury, selenium, Western Indian Ocean.

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101 Investigation of the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Country’s Economic Development in the Context of Sustainable Development

Authors: Lina Sinevičienė

Abstract:

Arising problems of countries’ public finances, social and demographic changes motivate scientific and policy debates on public spending size, structure and efficiency in order to meet the changing needs of society and business. The concept of sustainable development poses new challenges for scientists and policy-makers in the field of public finance. This paper focuses on the investigation of the relationship between government expenditure and country’s economic development in the context of sustainable development. Empirical analysis focuses on the data of the European Union (except Croatia and Luxemburg) countries. The study covers 2003 – 2012 years, using annual cross-sectional data. Summarizing the research results, it can be stated that governments should pay more attention to the needs that ensure sustainable development in the long-run when formulating public expenditure policy, particularly in the field of environment protection.

Keywords: Economic development, economic growth, government expenditure, sustainable development.

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100 Decision Making about the Environmental Management Implementation – Incentives and Expectations

Authors: Eva Štěpánková

Abstract:

Environmental management implementation is presently one of the ways of organization success and value improvement. Increasing an organization motivation to environmental measures introduction is caused primarily by the rising pressure of the society that generates various incentives to endeavor for the environmental performance improvement. The aim of the paper is to identify and characterize the key incentives and expectations leading organizations to the environmental management implementation. The author focuses on five businesses of different size and field, operating in the Czech Republic. The qualitative approach and grounded theory procedure are used in research. The results point out that the significant incentives for environmental management implementation represent primarily demands of customers, the opportunity to declare the environmental commitment and image improvement. The researched enterprises less commonly expect the economical contribution, competitive advantage increase or export rate improvement. The results show that marketing contributions are primarily expected from the environmental management implementation.

Keywords: Environmental management, environmental management systems, ISO 14001.

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99 Quantification of the Variables of the Information Model for the Use of School Terminology from 1884 to 2014 in Dalmatia

Authors: V. Vidučić, T. Brešan Ančić, M. Tomelić Ćurlin

Abstract:

Prior to quantifying the variables of the information model for using school terminology in Croatia's region of Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014, the most relevant model variables had to be determined: historical circumstances, standard of living, education system, linguistic situation, and media. The research findings show that there was no significant transfer of the 1884 school terms into 1949 usage; likewise, the 1949 school terms were not widely used in 2014. On the other hand, the research revealed that the meaning of school terms changed over the decades. The quantification of the variables will serve as the groundwork for creating an information model for using school terminology in Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014 and for defining direct growth rates in further research.

Keywords: Education system, historical circumstances, linguistic situation, media, school terminology, standard of living.

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98 The Role of Business Survey Measures in Forecasting Croatian Industrial Production

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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