Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 11

Search results for: sea level rise

11 Sea Level Characteristics Referenced to Specific Geodetic Datum in Alexandria, Egypt

Authors: Ahmed M. Khedr, Saad M. Abdelrahman, Kareem M. Tonbol

Abstract:

Two geo-referenced sea level datasets (September 2008 – November 2010) and (April 2012 – January 2014) were recorded at Alexandria Western Harbour (AWH). Accurate re-definition of tidal datum, referred to the latest International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF-2014), was discussed and updated to improve our understanding of the old predefined tidal datum at Alexandria. Tidal and non-tidal components of sea level were separated with the use of Delft-3D hydrodynamic model-tide suit (Delft-3D, 2015). Tidal characteristics at AWH were investigated and harmonic analysis showed the most significant 34 constituents with their amplitudes and phases. Tide was identified as semi-diurnal pattern as indicated by a “Form Factor” of 0.24 and 0.25, respectively. Principle tidal datums related to major tidal phenomena were recalculated referred to a meaningful geodetic height datum. The portion of residual energy (surge) out of the total sea level energy was computed for each dataset and found 77% and 72%, respectively. Power spectral density (PSD) showed accurate resolvability in high band (1–6) cycle/days for the nominated independent constituents, except some neighbouring constituents, which are too close in frequency. Wind and atmospheric pressure data, during the recorded sea level time, were analysed and cross-correlated with the surge signals. Moderate association between surge and wind and atmospheric pressure data were obtained. In addition, long-term sea level rise trend at AWH was computed and showed good agreement with earlier estimated rates.

Keywords: Alexandria, Delft-3D, Egypt, geodetic reference, harmonic analysis, sea level.

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10 Climate Safe House: A Community Housing Project Tackling Catastrophic Sea Level Rise in Coastal Communities

Authors: Chris Fersterer, Col Fay, Tobias Danielmeier, Kat Achterberg, Scott Willis

Abstract:

New Zealand, an island nation, has an extensive coastline peppered with small communities of iconic buildings known as Bachs. Post WWII, these modest buildings were constructed by their owners as retreats and generally were small, low cost, often using recycled material and often they fell below current acceptable building standards. In the latter part of the 20th century, real estate prices in many of these communities remained low and these areas became permanent residences for people attracted to this affordable lifestyle choice. The Blueskin Resilient Communities Trust (BRCT) is an organisation that recognises the vulnerability of communities in low lying settlements as now being prone to increased flood threat brought about by climate change and sea level rise. Some of the inhabitants of Blueskin Bay, Otago, NZ have already found their properties to be un-insurable because of increased frequency of flood events and property values have slumped accordingly. Territorial authorities also acknowledge this increased risk and have created additional compliance measures for new buildings that are less than 2 m above tidal peaks. Community resilience becomes an additional concern where inhabitants are attracted to a lifestyle associated with a specific location and its people when this lifestyle is unable to be met in a suburban or city context. Traditional models of social housing fail to provide the sense of community connectedness and identity enjoyed by the current residents of Blueskin Bay. BRCT have partnered with the Otago Polytechnic Design School to design a new form of community housing that can react to this environmental change. It is a longitudinal project incorporating participatory approaches as a means of getting people ‘on board’, to understand complex systems and co-develop solutions. In the first period, they are seeking industry support and funding to develop a transportable and fully self-contained housing model that exploits current technologies. BRCT also hope that the building will become an educational tool to highlight climate change issues facing us today. This paper uses the Climate Safe House (CSH) as a case study for education in architectural sustainability through experiential learning offered as part of the Otago Polytechnics Bachelor of Design. Students engage with the project with research methodologies, including site surveys, resident interviews, data sourced from government agencies and physical modelling. The process involves collaboration across design disciplines including product and interior design but also includes connections with industry, both within the education institution and stakeholder industries introduced through BRCT. This project offers a rich learning environment where students become engaged through project based learning within a community of practice, including architecture, construction, energy and other related fields. The design outcomes are expressed in a series of public exhibitions and forums where community input is sought in a truly participatory process.

Keywords: Community resilience, problem based learning, project based learning, case study.

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9 Coastal Vulnerability Index and Its Projection for Odisha Coast, East Coast of India

Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

Abstract:

Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone.

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8 Determining the Spatial Vulnerability Levels and Typologies of Coastal Cities to Climate Change: Case of Turkey

Authors: Mediha B. Sılaydın Aydın, Emine D. Kahraman

Abstract:

One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal cities, sea level rise, urban land use planning, vulnerability.

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7 Architectural Approaches to a Sustainable Community with Floating Housing Units Adapting to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Vietnam

Authors: Nguyen Thi Thu Trang

Abstract:

Climate change and sea level rise is one of the greatest challenges facing human beings in the 21st century. Because of sea level rise, several low-lying coastal areas around the globe are at risk of being completely submerged, disappearing under water. Particularly in Viet Nam, the rise in sea level is predicted to result in more frequent and even permanently inundated coastal plains. As a result, land reserving fund of coastal cities is going to be narrowed in near future, while construction ground is becoming increasingly limited due to a rapid growth in population. Faced with this reality, the solutions are being discussed not only in tradition view such as accommodation is raised or moved to higher areas, or “living with the water”, but also forwards to “living on the water”. Therefore, the concept of a sustainable floating community with floating houses based on the precious value of long term historical tradition of water dwellings in Viet Nam would be a sustainable solution for adaptation of climate change and sea level rise in the coastal areas. The sustainable floating community is comprised of sustainability in four components: architecture, environment, socio-economic and living quality. This research paper is focused on sustainability in architectural component of floating community. Through detailed architectural analysis of current floating houses and floating communities in Viet Nam, this research not only accumulates precious values of traditional architecture that need to be preserved and developed in the proposed concept, but also illustrates its weaknesses that need to address for optimal design of the future sustainable floating communities. Based on these studies the research would provide guidelines with appropriate architectural solutions for the concept of sustainable floating community with floating housing units that are adapted to climate change and sea level rise in Viet Nam.

Keywords: Climate change, floating houses, floating community, Viet Nam.

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6 Forecasting the Sea Level Change in Strait of Hormuz

Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

Abstract:

Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: Climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, artificial neural network, fuzzy logic.

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5 Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling

Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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4 The Use Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network for Prediction of Daily Tidal Levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

Abstract:

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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3 Structure and Functions of Urban Surface Water System in Coastal Areas: The Case of Almere

Authors: Tao Zou, Zhengnan Zhou

Abstract:

In the context of global climate change, flooding and sea level rise is increasingly threatening coastal urban areas, in which large population is continuously concentrated. Dutch experiences in urban water system management provide high reference value for sustainable coastal urban development projects. Preliminary studies shows the urban water system in Almere, a typical Dutch polder city, have three kinds of operational modes, achieving functions as: (1) coastline control – strong multiple damming system prevents from storm surges and maintains sufficient capacity upon risks; (2) high flexibility – large area and widely scattered open water system greatly reduce local runoff and water level fluctuation; (3) internal water maintenance – weir and sluice system maintains relatively stable water level, providing excellent boating and landscaping service, coupling with water circulating model maintaining better water quality. Almere has provided plenty of hints and experiences for ongoing development of coastal cities in emerging economies.

Keywords: Coastal area, resilience, sustainable urban watersystem, water circulation.

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2 Physico-Chemical Environment of Coastal Areas in the Vicinity of Lbod And Tidal Link Drain in Sindh, Pakistan after Cyclone 2a

Authors: Salam Khalid Al-Agha, Inamullah Bhatti, Hossam Adel Zaqoot, Shaukat Hayat Khan, Abdul Khalique Ansari

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of preliminary assessment of water quality along the coastal areas in the vicinity of Left Bank Outfall Drainage (LBOD) and Tidal Link Drain (TLD) in Sindh province after the cyclone 2A occurred in 1999. The water samples were collected from various RDs of Tidal Link Drain and lakes during September 2001 to April 2002 and were analysed for salinity, nitrite, phosphate, ammonia, silicate and suspended material in water. The results of the study showed considerable variations in water quality depending upon the location along the coast in the vicinity of LBOD and RDs. The salinity ranged between 4.39–65.25 ppt in Tidal Link Drain samples whereas 2.4–38.05 ppt in samples collected from lakes. The values of suspended material at various RDs of Tidal Link Drain ranged between 56.6–2134 ppm and at the lakes between 68–297 ppm. The data of continuous monitoring at RD–93 showed the range of PO4 (8.6–25.2 μg/l), SiO3 (554.96–1462 μg/l), NO2 (0.557.2–25.2 μg/l) and NH3 (9.38–23.62 μg/l). The concentration of nutrients in water samples collected from different RDs was found in the range of PO4 (10.85 to 11.47 μg/l), SiO3 (1624 to 2635.08 μg/l), NO2 (20.38 to 44.8 μg/l) and NH3 (24.08 to 26.6 μg/l). Sindh coastal areas which situated at the north-western boundary the Arabian Sea are highly vulnerable to flood damages due to flash floods during SW monsoon or impact of sea level rise and storm surges coupled with cyclones passing through Arabian Sea along Pakistan coast. It is hoped that the obtained data in this study would act as a database for future investigations and monitoring of LBOD and Tidal Link Drain coastal waters.

Keywords: Tidal Link Drain, Salinity, Nutrients, Nitrite salts, Coastal areas.

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1 Climate Change Finger Prints in Mountainous Upper Euphrates Basin

Authors: Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz, Monzur Alam Imteaz, Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Iqbal Hossain

Abstract:

Climate change leading to global warming affects the earth through many different ways such as weather (temperature, precipitation, humidity and the other parameters of weather), snow coverage and ice melting, sea level rise, hydrological cycles, quality of water, agriculture, forests, ecosystems and health. One of the most affected areas by climate change is hydrology and water resources. Regions where majority of runoff consists of snow melt are more sensitive to climate change. The first step of climate change studies is to establish trends of significant climate variables including precipitation, temperature and flow data to detect any potential climate change impacts already happened. Two popular non-parametric trend analysis methods, Mann-Kendal and Spearman-s Rho were applied to Upper Euphrates Basin (Turkey) to detect trends of precipitation, temperatures (maximum, minimum and average) and streamflow.

Keywords: Climate change, precipitation, snow hydrology, trend analysis and Upper Euphrates Basin

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