Search results for: green's function

Authors: Duong Vannak, Mohd Shahir Liew, Guo Zheng Yew

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Data of wave height and wind speed were collected from three existing oil fields in South China Sea – offshore Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah regions. Extreme values and other significant data were employed for analysis. The data were recorded from 1999 until 2008. The results show that offshore structures are susceptible to unacceptable motions initiated by wind and waves with worst structural impacts caused by extreme wave heights. To protect offshore structures from damage, there is a need to quantify descriptive statistics and determine spectra envelope of wind speed and wave height, and to ascertain the frequency content of each spectrum for offshore structures in the South China Sea shallow waters using measured time series. The results indicate that the process is nonstationary; it is converted to stationary process by first differencing the time series. For descriptive statistical analysis, both wind speed and wave height have significant influence on the offshore structure during the northeast monsoon with high mean wind speed of 13.5195 knots (
= 6.3566 knots) and the high mean wave height of 2.3597 m (
= 0.8690 m). Through observation of the spectra, there is no clear dominant peak and the peaks fluctuate randomly. Each wind speed spectrum and wave height spectrum has its individual identifiable pattern. The wind speed spectrum tends to grow gradually at the lower frequency range and increasing till it doubles at the higher frequency range with the mean peak frequency range of 0.4104 Hz to 0.4721 Hz, while the wave height tends to grow drastically at the low frequency range, which then fluctuates and decreases slightly at the high frequency range with the mean peak frequency range of 0.2911 Hz to 0.3425 Hz.

Keywords: Metocean, Offshore Engineering, Time Series, Descriptive Statistics, Autospectral Density Function, Wind, Wave.

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Authors: Abdoelmoniem A. Attaelmanan, Ahmed A. H. Siddig

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This study was conducted in light of continual global climate changes that projected increasing aridity, changes in soil fertility, and pollution. Plant growth and development largely depend on the combination of availing water and nutrients in the soil. Changes in the climate and atmospheric chemistry can cause serious effects on these growth factors. Plant carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and hydrogen (H) play a fundamental role in the maintenance of ecosystem structure and function. Hashab (Acacia senegal), which produces gum Arabic, supports dryland ecosystems in tropical zones by its potentiality to restore degraded soils; hence, it is ecologically and economically important for the dry areas of sub-Saharan Africa. The study aims at investigating the effects of water stress (simulated drought) and poor soil type on Acacia senegal C, N, and H contents. Seven-day-old seedlings were assigned to the treatments in split-plot design for four weeks. The main plot is irrigation interval (well-watered and water-stressed), and the subplot is soil types (silt and sandy soils). Seedling's C%, N%, and H% were measured using CHNS-O Analyzer and applying Standard Test Method. Irrigation intervals and soil types had no effects on seedlings and leaves C%, N%, and H%, irrigation interval had affected stem C% and H%, both irrigation intervals and soil types had affected root N% and interaction effect of water and soil was found on leaves and root's N%. Application of well-watered irrigation with soil that is rich in N and other nutrients would result in the greatest seedling C, N, and H content which will enhance growth and biomass accumulation and can play a crucial role in ecosystem productivity and services in the dryland regions.

Keywords: Acacia senegal, Africa, climate change, drylands, nutrients biomass, Sub-Sahara, Sudan.

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Authors: Kaveh Mollazade, Hojat Ahmadi, Mahmoud Omid, Reza Alimardani

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Recently, the issue of machine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis as a part of maintenance system became global due to the potential advantages to be gained from reduced maintenance costs, improved productivity and increased machine availability. The aim of this work is to investigate the effectiveness of a new fault diagnosis method based on power spectral density (PSD) of vibration signals in combination with decision trees and fuzzy inference system (FIS). To this end, a series of studies was conducted on an external gear hydraulic pump. After a test under normal condition, a number of different machine defect conditions were introduced for three working levels of pump speed (1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm), corresponding to (i) Journal-bearing with inner face wear (BIFW), (ii) Gear with tooth face wear (GTFW), and (iii) Journal-bearing with inner face wear plus Gear with tooth face wear (B&GW). The features of PSD values of vibration signal were extracted using descriptive statistical parameters. J48 algorithm is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The output of J48 algorithm was employed to produce the crisp if-then rule and membership function sets. The structure of FIS classifier was then defined based on the crisp sets. In order to evaluate the proposed PSD-J48-FIS model, the data sets obtained from vibration signals of the pump were used. Results showed that the total classification accuracy for 1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm conditions were 96.42%, 100%, and 96.42% respectively. The results indicate that the combined PSD-J48-FIS model has the potential for fault diagnosis of hydraulic pumps.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density, Machine ConditionMonitoring, Hydraulic Pump, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuela Guerriero, Emanuele Manni, Alessandro Romano

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In this article, we deal with a variant of the classical course timetabling problem that has a practical application in many areas of education. In particular, in this paper we are interested in high schools remedial courses. The purpose of such courses is to provide under-prepared students with the skills necessary to succeed in their studies. In particular, a student might be under prepared in an entire course, or only in a part of it. The limited availability of funds, as well as the limited amount of time and teachers at disposal, often requires schools to choose which courses and/or which teaching units to activate. Thus, schools need to model the training offer and the related timetabling, with the goal of ensuring the highest possible teaching quality, by meeting the above-mentioned financial, time and resources constraints. Moreover, there are some prerequisites between the teaching units that must be satisfied. We first present a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model to solve this problem to optimality. However, the presence of many peculiar constraints contributes inevitably in increasing the complexity of the mathematical model. Thus, solving it through a general-purpose solver may be performed for small instances only, while solving real-life-sized instances of such model requires specific techniques or heuristic approaches. For this purpose, we also propose a heuristic approach, in which we make use of a fast constructive procedure to obtain a feasible solution. To assess our exact and heuristic approaches we perform extensive computational results on both real-life instances (obtained from a high school in Lecce, Italy) and randomly generated instances. Our tests show that the MIP model is never solved to optimality, with an average optimality gap of 57%. On the other hand, the heuristic algorithm is much faster (in about the 50% of the considered instances it converges in approximately half of the time limit) and in many cases allows achieving an improvement on the objective function value obtained by the MIP model. Such an improvement ranges between 18% and 66%.

Keywords: Heuristic, MIP model, Remedial course, School, Timetabling.

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Authors: K. A. Weidenmann, M. Grigo, B. Brylka, P. Elsner, T. Böhlke

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In order to reduce fuel consumption, the weight of automobiles has to be reduced. Fiber reinforced polymers offer the potential to reach this aim because of their high stiffness to weight ratio. Additionally, the use of fiber reinforced polymers in automotive applications has to allow for an economic large-scale production. In this regard, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics made by direct processing offer both mechanical performance and processability in injection moulding and compression moulding. The work presented in this contribution deals with long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene directly processed in compression moulding (D-LFT). For the use in automotive applications both the temperature and the time dependency of the materials properties have to be investigated to fulfill performance requirements during crash or the demands of service temperatures ranging from -40 °C to 80 °C. To consider both the influence of temperature and time, quasistatic tensile tests have been carried out at different temperatures. These tests have been complemented by high speed tensile tests at different strain rates. As expected, the increase in strain rate results in an increase of the elastic modulus which correlates to an increase of the stiffness with decreasing service temperature. The results are in good accordance with results determined by dynamic mechanical analysis within the range of 0.1 to 100 Hz. The experimental results from different testing methods were grouped and interpreted by using different time temperature shift approaches. In this regard, Williams-Landel-Ferry and Arrhenius approach based on kinetics have been used. As the theoretical shift factor follows an arctan function, an empirical approach was also taken into consideration. It could be shown that this approach describes best the time and temperature superposition for glass fiber reinforced polypropylene manufactured by D-LFT processing.

Keywords: Composite, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics, mechanical properties, dynamic mechanical analysis, time temperature superposition.

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Authors: Masoud Fathi Kazerouni, Jens Schlemper, Klaus-Dieter Kuhnert

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Green planet is one of the Earth’s names which is known as a terrestrial planet and also can be named the fifth largest planet of the solar system as another scientific interpretation. Plants do not have a constant and steady distribution all around the world, and even plant species’ variations are not the same in one specific region. Presence of plants is not only limited to one field like botany; they exist in different fields such as literature and mythology and they hold useful and inestimable historical records. No one can imagine the world without oxygen which is produced mostly by plants. Their influences become more manifest since no other live species can exist on earth without plants as they form the basic food staples too. Regulation of water cycle and oxygen production are the other roles of plants. The roles affect environment and climate. Plants are the main components of agricultural activities. Many countries benefit from these activities. Therefore, plants have impacts on political and economic situations and future of countries. Due to importance of plants and their roles, study of plants is essential in various fields. Consideration of their different applications leads to focus on details of them too. Automatic recognition of plants is a novel field to contribute other researches and future of studies. Moreover, plants can survive their life in different places and regions by means of adaptations. Therefore, adaptations are their special factors to help them in hard life situations. Weather condition is one of the parameters which affect plants life and their existence in one area. Recognition of plants in different weather conditions is a new window of research in the field. Only natural images are usable to consider weather conditions as new factors. Thus, it will be a generalized and useful system. In order to have a general system, distance from the camera to plants is considered as another factor. The other considered factor is change of light intensity in environment as it changes during the day. Adding these factors leads to a huge challenge to invent an accurate and secure system. Development of an efficient plant recognition system is essential and effective. One important component of plant is leaf which can be used to implement automatic systems for plant recognition without any human interface and interaction. Due to the nature of used images, characteristic investigation of plants is done. Leaves of plants are the first characteristics to select as trusty parts. Four different plant species are specified for the goal to classify them with an accurate system. The current paper is devoted to principal directions of the proposed methods and implemented system, image dataset, and results. The procedure of algorithm and classification is explained in details. First steps, feature detection and description of visual information, are outperformed by using Scale invariant feature transform (SIFT), HARRIS-SIFT, and FAST-SIFT methods. The accuracy of the implemented methods is computed. In addition to comparison, robustness and efficiency of results in different conditions are investigated and explained.

Keywords: SIFT combination, feature extraction, feature detection, natural images, natural plant recognition, HARRIS-SIFT, FAST-SIFT.

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Authors: Mustafa Al Sukar, Azzam Sleit, Abdullatif Abu-Dalhoum, Bassam Al-Kasasbeh

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Use and abuse of drugs by teens is very common and can have dangerous consequences. The drugs contribute to physical and sexual aggression such as assault or rape. Some teenagers regularly use drugs to compensate for depression, anxiety or a lack of positive social skills. Teen resort to smoking should not be minimized because it can be "gateway drugs" for other drugs (marijuana, cocaine, hallucinogens, inhalants, and heroin). The combination of teenagers' curiosity, risk taking behavior, and social pressure make it very difficult to say no. This leads most teenagers to the questions: "Will it hurt to try once?" Nowadays, technological advances are changing our lives very rapidly and adding a lot of technologies that help us to track the risk of drug abuse such as smart phones, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), Internet of Things (IoT), etc. This technique may help us to early discovery of drug abuse in order to prevent an aggravation of the influence of drugs on the abuser. In this paper, we have developed a Decision Support System (DSS) for detecting the drug abuse using Artificial Neural Network (ANN); we used a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network in developing the system. The input layer includes 50 variables while the output layer contains one neuron which indicates whether the person is a drug addict. An iterative process is used to determine the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each one. We used multiple experiment models that have been completed with Log-Sigmoid transfer function. Particularly, 10-fold cross validation schemes are used to access the generalization of the proposed system. The experiment results have obtained 98.42% classification accuracy for correct diagnosis in our system. The data had been taken from 184 cases in Jordan according to a set of questions compiled from Specialists, and data have been obtained through the families of drug abusers.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Decision Support System, drug abuse, drug addiction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Erkut Karasu, Burcu Ozdilek, Burhan Turgut, Birol Topcu, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Orkide Donma

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The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and asthma may be related to a decreased immunological tolerance induced by a defective function of regulatory T cells (Tregs). The aim of this study is to establish the potential link between these diseases and CD4+, CD25+ FoxP3+ Tregs as well as T helper cells (Ths) in children. This is a prospective case control study. Obese (n:40), asthmatic (n:40), asthmatic obese (n:40) and healthy children (n:40), who don't have any acute or chronic diseases, were included in this study. Obese children were evaluated according to WHO criteria. Asthmatic patients were chosen based on GINA criteria. Parents were asked to fill up the questionnaire. Informed consent forms were taken. Blood samples were marked with CD4+, CD25+ and FoxP3+ in order to determine Tregs and Ths by flow cytometric method. Statistical analyses were performed. p≤0.05 was chosen as meaningful threshold. Tregs exhibiting anti-inflammatory nature were significantly lower in obese (0,16%; p≤0,001), asthmatic (0,25%; p≤0,01) and asthmatic obese (0,29%; p≤0,05) groups than the control group (0,38%). Ths were counted higher in asthma group than the control (p≤0,01) and obese (p≤0,001) groups. T cell immunity plays important roles in obesity and asthma pathogeneses. Decreased numbers of Tregs found in obese, asthmatic and asthmatic obese children may help to elucidate some questions in pathophysiology of these diseases. For HOMA-IR levels, any significant difference was not noted between control and obese groups, but statistically higher values were found for obese asthmatics. The values obtained in all groups were found to be below the critical cut off points. This finding has made the statistically significant difference observed between Tregs of obese, asthmatic, obese asthmatic and control groups much more valuable. These findings will be useful in diagnosis and treatment of these disorders and future studies are needed. The production and propagation of Tregs may be promising in alternative asthma and obesity treatments.

Keywords: Asthma, flow cytometry, pediatric obesity, T cells.

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Authors: Anjin Park, Sungju Yun, Jungwhan Kim, Seungk Min, Keechul Jung

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Finger spelling is an art of communicating by signs made with fingers, and has been introduced into sign language to serve as a bridge between the sign language and the verbal language. Previous approaches to finger spelling recognition are classified into two categories: glove-based and vision-based approaches. The glove-based approach is simpler and more accurate recognizing work of hand posture than vision-based, yet the interfaces require the user to wear a cumbersome and carry a load of cables that connected the device to a computer. In contrast, the vision-based approaches provide an attractive alternative to the cumbersome interface, and promise more natural and unobtrusive human-computer interaction. The vision-based approaches generally consist of two steps: hand extraction and recognition, and two steps are processed independently. This paper proposes real-time vision-based Korean finger spelling recognition system by integrating hand extraction into recognition. First, we tentatively detect a hand region using CAMShift algorithm. Then fill factor and aspect ratio estimated by width and height estimated by CAMShift are used to choose candidate from database, which can reduce the number of matching in recognition step. To recognize the finger spelling, we use DTW(dynamic time warping) based on modified chain codes, to be robust to scale and orientation variations. In this procedure, since accurate hand regions, without holes and noises, should be extracted to improve the precision, we use graph cuts algorithm that globally minimize the energy function elegantly expressed by Markov random fields (MRFs). In the experiments, the computational times are less than 130ms, and the times are not related to the number of templates of finger spellings in database, as candidate templates are selected in extraction step.

Keywords: CAMShift, DTW, Graph Cuts, MRF.

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

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The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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Authors: M. M. Shahidul Hassan, Omiya Hassan

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Bangladesh has set its goal to reach upper middle-income country status by 2024. To attain this status, the country must satisfy the World Bank requirement of achieving minimum Gross National Income (GNI). Number of youth job seekers in the country is increasing. University graduates are looking for decent jobs. So, the vital issue of this country is to understand how the GNI and jobs can be increased. The objective of this paper is to address these issues and find ways to create more job opportunities for youths at home and abroad which will increase the country’s GNI. The paper studies proportion of different goods Bangladesh exported, and also the percentage of employment in different sectors. The data used here for the purpose of analysis have been collected from the available literature. These data are then plotted and analyzed. Through these studies, it is concluded that growth in sectors like agricultural, ready-made garments (RMG), jute industries and fisheries are declining and the business community is not interested in setting up capital-intensive industries. Under this situation, the country needs to explore other business opportunities for a higher economic growth rate. Knowledge can substitute the physical resource. Since the country consists of the large youth population, higher education will play a key role in economic development. It now needs graduates with higher-order skills with innovative quality. Such dispositions demand changes in a university’s curriculum, teaching and assessment method which will function young generations as active learners and creators. By bringing these changes in higher education, a knowledge-based society can be created. The application of such knowledge and creativity will then become the commodity of Bangladesh which will help to reach its goal as an upper middle-income country.

Keywords: Bangladesh, economic sectors, economic growth, higher education, knowledge-based economy, massifcation of higher education, teaching and learning, universities’ role in society.

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Authors: Volker Wannack

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Regional and global strategies focusing on hydrogen (H2) and blockchain technologies are fueling remarkable advancements. These strategies underpin the revolutionary 'Blockchain Based Hydrogen Market (BBH2)' project, with the primary objective of creating a Blockchain Minimum Viable Product (B-MVP) tailored to the hydrogen market. The B-MVP harnesses blockchain's capabilities, establishing a unified platform for secure, automated transactions via smart contracts. This innovation promises to reshape hydrogen logistics, trade, and transactions. The B-MVP carries transformative potential across diverse sectors, benefiting renewable energy producers, surplus energy-based hydrogen manufacturers, grid operators, and consumers. By implementing standardized, automated, tamper-proof processes, it bolsters cost-efficiency and enables transparent, traceable transactions. Its core mission is to verify the integrity of 'green' hydrogen, tracing its journey from renewable producers to end-users. This emphasis on transparency fosters economic, ecological, and social sustainability within a secure, transparent market. A standout feature of the B-MVP is its cross-border adaptability, obviating the need for nation-specific data storage, and broadening its global reach. This adaptability also spurs long-term job creation by establishing a dedicated blockchain operating firm. By attracting skilled labor and offering training, the B-MVP fortifies the hydrogen sector's workforce. Furthermore, it catalyzes innovative business models, luring more companies and startups, contributing to sustained job growth. For example, data analysis can tailor tariffs to offer demand-centric network capacities to producers and operators, providing tamper-proof pricing options to redistributors and end-customers. Beyond technological and economic progress, the B-MVP amplifies the prominence of national and international standards efforts. The region implementing the B-MVP becomes recognized as a pioneer in climate-friendly, sustainable, and forward-thinking practices, generating interest and attention beyond its geographic boundaries. Additionally, it fosters knowledge transfer between academia and industry, promoting scientific advancements, aligning with innovation management, and nurturing an innovation culture in the hydrogen sector. Through blockchain-hydrogen integration, the B-MVP champions comprehensive innovation, contributing to a sustainable future in the hydrogen industry. Implementation involves evaluating blockchain tech, developing smart contracts, and ensuring interoperability with existing systems. Scalability testing and data format development further validate the B-MVP's potential. BBH2 secures funding under the 'Technology Offensive Hydrogen,' a part of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection's 7th Energy Research Program.

Keywords: Hydrogen, blockchain, sustainability, structural change.

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Authors: Hoai Nam Huynh, Edouard Rivière-Lorphèvre, Olivier Verlinden

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Manufacturing technologies are becoming continuously more diversified over the years. The increasing use of robots for various applications such as assembling, painting, welding has also affected the field of machining. Machining robots can deal with larger workspaces than conventional machine-tools at a lower cost and thus represent a very promising alternative for machining applications. Furthermore, their inherent structure ensures them a great flexibility of motion to reach any location on the workpiece with the desired orientation. Nevertheless, machining robots suffer from a lack of stiffness at their joints restricting their use to applications involving low cutting forces especially finishing operations. Vibratory instabilities may also happen while machining and deteriorate the precision leading to scrap parts. Some researchers are therefore concerned with the identification of optimal parameters in robotic machining. This paper continues the development of a virtual robotic machining simulator in order to find optimized cutting parameters in terms of depth of cut or feed per tooth for example. The simulation environment combines an in-house milling routine (DyStaMill) achieving the computation of cutting forces and material removal with an in-house multibody library (EasyDyn) which is used to build a dynamic model of a 3-DOF planar robot with flexible links. The position of the robot end-effector submitted to milling forces is controlled through an inverse kinematics scheme while controlling the position of its joints separately. Each joint is actuated through a servomotor for which the transfer function has been computed in order to tune the corresponding controller. The output results feature the evolution of the cutting forces when the robot structure is deformable or not and the tracking errors of the end-effector. Illustrations of the resulting machined surfaces are also presented. The consideration of the links flexibility has highlighted an increase of the cutting forces magnitude. This proof of concept will aim to enrich the database of results in robotic machining for potential improvements in production.

Keywords: Control, machining, multibody, robotic, simulation.

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Authors: Philip T. Broughton, Mark P. Bettney, Isla L. Smail

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Effective treatment of ground instability is essential when managing the impacts associated with historic mining. A field trial was undertaken by the Coal Authority to investigate the geotechnical performance and potential use of composite materials comprising resin and fill or stone to safely treat surface collapses, such as crown-holes, associated with shallow mining. Test pits were loosely filled with various granular fill materials. The fill material was injected with commercially available silicate and polyurethane resin foam products. In situ and laboratory testing was undertaken to assess the geotechnical properties of the resultant composite materials. The test pits were subsequently excavated to assess resin permeation. Drilling and resin injection was easiest through clean limestone fill materials. Recycled building waste fill material proved difficult to inject with resin; this material is thus considered unsuitable for use in resin composites. Incomplete resin permeation in several of the test pits created irregular ‘blocks’ of composite. Injected resin foams significantly improve the stiffness and resistance (strength) of the un-compacted fill material. The stiffness of the treated fill material appears to be a function of the stone particle size, its associated compaction characteristics (under loose tipping) and the proportion of resin foam matrix. The type of fill material is more critical than the type of resin to the geotechnical properties of the composite materials. Resin composites can effectively support typical design imposed loads. Compared to other traditional treatment options, such as cement grouting, the use of resin composites is potentially less disruptive, particularly for sites with limited access, and thus likely to achieve significant reinstatement cost savings. The use of resin composites is considered a suitable option for the future treatment of shallow mining collapses.

Keywords: Composite material, ground improvement, mining legacy, resin.

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Authors: Barbara Vojvodikova, Katerina Jupova, Iva Ticha

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Cities in their historical evolution have always adapted their internal structure to the needs of society (for example protective city walls during classicism era lost their defense function, became unnecessary, were demolished and gave space for new features such as roads, museums or parks). Today it is necessary to modify the internal structure of the city in order to minimize the impact of climate changes on the environment of the population. This article discusses the results of the Urban Climate model owned by VITO, which was carried out as part of a project from the European Union's Horizon grant agreement No 730004 Pan-European Urban Climate Services Climate-Fit city. The use of the model was aimed at changes in land use and land cover in cities related to urban heat islands (UHI). The task of the application was to evaluate possible land use change scenarios in connection with city requirements and ideas. Two pilot areas in the Czech Republic were selected. One is Ostrava and the other Hodonín. The paper provides a demonstration of the application of the model for various possible future development scenarios. It contains an assessment of the suitability or inappropriateness of scenarios of future development depending on the temperature increase. Cities that are preparing to reconstruct the public space are interested in eliminating proposals that would lead to an increase in temperature stress as early as in the assignment phase. If they have evaluation on the unsuitability of some type of design, they can limit it into the proposal phases. Therefore, especially in the application of models on Local level - in 1 m spatial resolution, it was necessary to show which type of proposals would create a significant temperature island in its implementation. Such a type of proposal is considered unsuitable. The model shows that the building itself can create a shady place and thus contribute to the reduction of the UHI. If it sensitively approaches the protection of existing greenery, this new construction may not pose a significant problem. More massive interventions leading to the reduction of existing greenery create a new heat island space.

Keywords: Heat islands, land use, urban climate model.

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Lourenço, Margarida Mano

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Higher Education Institutions (HEI), and other levels of Education, face important challenges. One of the most relevant one is the ability to adapt to a society that is changing over time, whilst guarantying levels of training that do not merely react to such changes. Thus, interacting with society, particularly with surrounding communities and key stakeholders, has become an essential requirement for the sustainability of these institutions. One of the formal mechanisms implemented in European educational institutions has been the design of organizational structures that include a top governance body sharing its constitution with both internal members, students and external members. Such frame holds the core mission of involving communities in the governance of educational institutions, assuming, both strategic decision-making functions, with the approval of the institutions’ strategic plans, and a supervision function, approved by activity reports. It also plays an essential role in the life of institutions by holding the responsibility of electing its top executives. In Portugal, it has been almost a decade since the publication of RJIES, the legal framework of Higher Education, such bodies being designated by General Councils. Thus, one may highlight that there has been a better understanding of the operative process of these bodies, as well as their added value to the education system. It has also been possible to analyse the extent to which their core mission has been fulfilled and to understand its growing relevance, particularly regarding the autonomy of institutions. This article aims to contribute to this theme by presenting the results of a study on the role of these bodies in the governance of Public Portuguese HEI, with a special focus on the supervisory competence of organizational performance. Through questionnaires made to board members and interviews with chairpersons of the bodies and top managers of the institutions, it was possible to conclude that there is a high concern with the connections to the external environment. However, regarding organizational performance and the role of the Council as a supervisor of that performance, the activity of the bodies has fallen short of what would be expected. Several reasons may be identified. It is important to emphasize the importance of the profile of the external members and the relationship between the organ’s standard functioning and the election of the head of the institution.

Keywords: Governance, stakeholders, supervision, organizational performance.

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Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

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The modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) models cannot: a) independently, situationally, and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, and cognize under uncertainty and changing of the environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU). This system uses a neural network as its computational memory, and activates functions of the perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, and forming images of these objects. These images and objects are used for modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision Making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, and Wisdom. In doing so are performed analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge of the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of situational control, fuzzy logic, psycholinguistics, informatics, and modern possibilities of data science were applied. The proposed self-controlled system of brain and mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject applications.

Keywords: Computational psycholinguistic cognitive brain and mind system, situational fuzzy control, uncertainty, AI.

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mona H. Gamal Eldein

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Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following knee arthroplasty, patients usually feel un-satisfied. Yet, a controversy still persists on the appropriate operative technique that doesn’t affect proprioception much. Purpose: This study compared the effects of Cruciate Retaining (CR) and Posterior Stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA on dynamic balance, pain and functional performance following rehabilitation. Methods: Thirty patients with CRTKA (group I), thirty with PSTKA (group II) and fifteen indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44, 55.13±3.48 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03, 35.7±1.99 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for groups I, II and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), WOMAC pain subscale and Timed Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks preand post-operatively, three, six and twelve months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs, follow-up to all groups for twelve months. Results: The Mixed design MANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and SC time compared with group II three, six and twelve months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly six months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months postoperatively in groups I and II with the opposite being true four weeks post-operatively. But no significant differences in BBS scores, pain scores and TUG and SC time between six and twelve months postoperatively in groups I and II. Interpretation/Conclusion: CRTKA is preferable to PSTKA, possibly due to the preserved human proprioceptors in the un-excised PCL.

Keywords: Dynamic Balance, Functional Performance, Knee Arthroplasty, Long-Term.

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Authors: Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The paper will focus on the strategic development deriving from the evolution of the traditional courtyard spatial organization towards a new, contemporary sustainable way of living. New sustainable approaches that engulf the social issues, the notion of place, the understanding of weather architecture blended together with the bioclimatic behavior will be seen through a series of experimental case studies in the island of Cyprus, inspired and originated from its traditional wisdom, ranging from small scale of living to urban interventions. Weather and nature will be seen as co-architectural authors with architects. Furthermore, the building will be seen not as an object but rather as a vessel of human activities. This will further enhance the notion of merging the material and immaterial, the built and unbuilt, subject-human, and the object-building. This eventually will enable to generate the discussion of the understanding of the building in relation to the place and its inhabitants, where the human topography is more important than the material topography. The specificities of the divided island and the dealing with sites that are in vicinity with the diving Green Line will further trigger explorations dealing with the regeneration issues and the social sustainability offering unprecedented opportunities for innovative sustainable ways of living. Opening up a discourse with premises of weather-nature, materialimmaterial, human-material topographies in relation to the contested sites of the borders will lead us to develop innovative strategies for a profound, both technical and social sustainability, which fruitfully yields to innovative living built environments, responding to the ever changing environmental and social needs. As a starting point, a case study in Kaimakli in Nicosia, a refurbishment with an extension of a traditional house, already engulfs all the traditional/ vernacular wisdom of the bioclimatic architecture. The project focusses on the direct and quite obvious bioclimatic features such as south orientation and cross ventilation. Furthermore, it tries to reinvent the adaptation of these parameters in order to turn the whole house to a contemporary living environment. In order to succeed this, evolutions of traditional architectural elements and spatial conditions are integrated in a way that does not only respond to some certain weather conditions, but they integrate and blend the weather within the built environment. A series of innovations aiming at maximum flexibility is proposed. The house can finally be transformed into a winter enclosure, while for the most part of the year it turns into a ‘camping’ living environment. Parallel to experimental interventions in existing traditional units, we will proceed examining the implementation of the same developed methodology in designing living units and complexes. Malleable courtyard organizations that attempt to blend the traditional wisdom with the contemporary needs for living, the weather and nature with the built environment will be seen tested in both horizontal and vertical developments. Social activities are seen as directly affected and forged by the weather conditions thus generating a new social identity of people where people are directly involved and interacting with the weather. The human actions and interaction with the built, material environment in order to respond to weather will be seen as the result of balancing the social with the technological sustainability, the immaterial, and the material aspects of the living environment.

Keywords: Building as a verb, contemporary living, traditional bioclimatic wisdom, weather architecture.

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Authors: I. Asanuma, T. Yamaguchi, J. Park, K. J. Mackin

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Fishery lights on the surface could be detected by the Day and Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP). The DNB covers the spectral range of 500 to 900 nm and realized a higher sensitivity. The DNB has a difficulty of identification of fishing lights from lunar lights reflected by clouds, which affects observations for the half of the month. Fishery lights and lights of the surface are identified from lunar lights reflected by clouds by a method using the DNB and the infrared band, where the detection limits are defined as a function of the brightness temperature with a difference from the maximum temperature for each level of DNB radiance and with the contrast of DNB radiance against the background radiance. Fishery boats or structures on islands could be detected by the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on the polar orbit satellites using the reflected microwave by the surface reflecting targets. The SAR has a difficulty of tradeoff between spatial resolution and coverage while detecting the small targets like fishery boats. A distribution of fishery boats and island activities were detected by the scan-SAR narrow mode of Radarsat-2, which covers 300 km by 300 km with various combinations of polarizations. The fishing boats were detected as a single pixel of highly scattering targets with the scan-SAR narrow mode of which spatial resolution is 30 m. As the look angle dependent scattering signals exhibits the significant differences, the standard deviations of scattered signals for each look angles were taken into account as a threshold to identify the signal from fishing boats and structures on the island from background noise. It was difficult to validate the detected targets by DNB with SAR data because of time lag of observations for 6 hours between midnight by DNB and morning or evening by SAR. The temporal changes of island activities were detected as a change of mean intensity of DNB for circular area for a certain scale of activities. The increase of DNB mean intensity was corresponding to the beginning of dredging and the change of intensity indicated the ending of reclamation and following constructions of facilities.

Keywords: Day night band, fishery, SAR, South China Sea.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we consider the problem of logic simplification for a special class of logic functions, namely complementary Boolean functions (CBF), targeting low power implementation using static CMOS logic style. The functions are uniquely characterized by the presence of terms, where for a canonical binary 2-tuple, D(mj) ∪ D(mk) = { } and therefore, we have | D(mj) ∪ D(mk) | = 0 [19]. Similarly, D(Mj) ∪ D(Mk) = { } and hence | D(Mj) ∪ D(Mk) | = 0. Here, 'mk' and 'Mk' represent a minterm and maxterm respectively. We compare the circuits minimized with our proposed method with those corresponding to factored Reed-Muller (f-RM) form, factored Pseudo Kronecker Reed-Muller (f-PKRM) form, and factored Generalized Reed-Muller (f-GRM) form. We have opted for algebraic factorization of the Reed-Muller (RM) form and its different variants, using the factorization rules of [1], as it is simple and requires much less CPU execution time compared to Boolean factorization operations. This technique has enabled us to greatly reduce the literal count as well as the gate count needed for such RM realizations, which are generally prone to consuming more cells and subsequently more power consumption. However, this leads to a drawback in terms of the design-for-test attribute associated with the various RM forms. Though we still preserve the definition of those forms viz. realizing such functionality with only select types of logic gates (AND gate and XOR gate), the structural integrity of the logic levels is not preserved. This would consequently alter the testability properties of such circuits i.e. it may increase/decrease/maintain the same number of test input vectors needed for their exhaustive testability, subsequently affecting their generalized test vector computation. We do not consider the issue of design-for-testability here, but, instead focus on the power consumption of the final logic implementation, after realization with a conventional CMOS process technology (0.35 micron TSMC process). The quality of the resulting circuits evaluated on the basis of an established cost metric viz., power consumption, demonstrate average savings by 26.79% for the samples considered in this work, besides reduction in number of gates and input literals by 39.66% and 12.98% respectively, in comparison with other factored RM forms.

Keywords: Reed-Muller forms, Logic function, Hammingdistance, Algebraic factorization, Low power design.

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Authors: Fawzi Irshaid, Kamal Mansi

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Thyroid dysfunction is one of the most frequently reported complications of chronic blood transfusion therapy in patients with beta-thalassemia major (BTM). However, the occurrence of thyroid dysfunction and its possible association with iron overload in BTM patients is still under debate. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the status of thyroid functions and iron overload in adolescent and young adult patients with BTM in Jordan population. Thirty six BTM patients aged 12-28 years and matched controls were included in this study. All patients have been receiving frequent blood transfusion to maintain pretransfusion hemoglobin concentration above 10 g dl-1 and deferoxamine at a dose of 45 mg kg-1 day-1 (8 h, 5-7 days/week) by subcutaneous infusion. Blood samples were drawn from patients and controls. The status of thyroid functions and iron overload was evaluated by measurements of serum free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and serum ferritin level. A number of some hematological and biochemical parameters were also measured. It was found that hematocrit, serum ferritin, hemoglobin, FT3 and zinc, copper mean values were significantly higher in the patients than in the controls (P< 0.05). On other hand, leukocyte, FT4 and TSH mean values were similar to that of the controls. In addition, our data also indicated that all of the above examined parameters were not significantly affected by the patient-s age and gender. Deferoxamine approach for removing excess iron from our BTM patient did not normalize the values of serum ferritin, copper and zinc, suggesting poor compliance with deferoxamine chelation therapy. Thus, we recommend the use of a combination of deferoxamine and deferiprone to reduce the risk of excess of iron in our patients. Furthermore, thyroid dysfunction appears to be a rare complication, because our patients showed normal mean levels for serum TSH and FT4. However, high mean levels of serum ferritin, zinc, copper might be seen as potential risk factors for initiation and development of thyroid dysfunctions and other diseases. Therefore, further studies must be carried out at yearly intervals with large sample number, to detect subclinical thyroid dysfunction cases.

Keywords: beta-thalassemia major, deferoxamine, iron overload, triiodothyronine, zinc.

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Authors: Marcelo Araujo da Nóbrega, Ariel Moura Vilas Boas

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This study aims to characterize the physicochemical aspects of the soils of southeastern Chapada Diamantina - Bahia related to the phytophysiognomies of this area, rupestrian field, small savanna (savanna fields), small dense savanna (savanna fields), savanna (Cerrado), dry thorny forest (Caatinga), dry thorny forest/savanna, scrub (Carrasco - ecotone), forest island (seasonal semi-deciduous forest - Capão) and seasonal semi-deciduous forest. To achieve the research objective, soil samples were collected in each plant formation and analyzed in the soil laboratory of ESALQ - USP in order to identify soil fertility through the determination of pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, potential acidity, sum of bases, cation exchange capacity and base saturation. The composition of soil particles was also checked; that is, the texture, step made in the terrestrial ecosystems laboratory of the Department of Ecology of USP and in the soil laboratory of ESALQ. Another important factor also studied was to show the variations in the vegetation cover in the region as a function of soil moisture in the different existing physiographic environments. Another study carried out was a comparison between the average soil moisture data with precipitation data from three locations with very different phytophysiognomies. The soils found in this part of Bahia can be classified into 5 classes, with a predominance of oxisols. All of these classes have a great diversity of physical and chemical properties, as can be seen in photographs and in particle size and fertility analyzes. The deepest soils are located in the Central Pediplano of Chapada Diamantina where the dirty field, the clean field, the executioner and the semideciduous seasonal forest (Capão) are located, and the shallower soils were found in the rupestrian field, dry thorny forest, and savanna fields, the latter located on a hillside. As for the variations in water in the region's soil, the data indicate that there were large spatial variations in humidity in both the rainy and dry periods.

Keywords: Bahia, Chapada diamantina, phytophysiognomies, soils.

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Authors: L. R. Ferreira, R. Biscaro, C. C. Danziger, C. M. Galhardi, L. C. Biscaro, R. C. Biscaro, I. S. Vasconcelos, L. C. R. Ferreira, R. Reis, L. H. Oliveira

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Introduction: There is a worldwide trend for the employer to be aware of investing in health promotion that goes beyond occupational hygiene approaches with the implementation of a comprehensive program with integration between occupational health and safety, and social/psychosocial responsibility in the workplace. Work accommodation is a necessity in most companies as it allows the worker to return to its function respecting its physical limitations. This study had the objective to verify if the integration of health and safety in the companies, with the inclusion of the concept of TWH promoted by an occupational health service has impacted in the management of absenteeism of workers in work accommodation. Method: A retrospective and paired cohort study was used, in which the impact of the implementation of the Program for the Health/Safety Integration and Total Worker Health Concept (PHSITWHC) was evaluated using the indices of absenteeism, health attestations, days and hours of sick leave of workers that underwent job accommodation/rehabilitation. This was a cohort study and the data were collected from January to September of 2017, prior to the initiation of the integration program, and compared with the data obtained from January to September of 2018, after the implementation of the program. For the statistical analysis, the student's t-test was used, with statistically significant differences being made at p < 0.05. Results: The results showed a 35% reduction in the number of absenteeism rate in 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. There was also a significant reduction in the total numbers of days of attestations/absences (mean of 2,8) as well as days of attestations, absence and sick leaves (mean of 5,2) in 2018 data after the implementation of PHSITWHC compared to 2017 data, means of 4,3 and 25,1, respectively, prior to the program. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the inclusion of the PHSITWHC was associated with a reduction in the rate of absenteeism of workers that underwent job accommodation. It was observed that, once health and safety were approached and integrated with the inclusion of the TWH concept, it was possible to reduce absenteeism, and improve worker’s quality of life and wellness, and work accommodation management.

Keywords: Absenteeism, health/safety integration, work accommodation management, total worker health.

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Authors: Paola Lecca, Lorenzo Dematte

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Reactiondiffusion systems are mathematical models that describe how the concentration of one or more substances distributed in space changes under the influence of local chemical reactions in which the substances are converted into each other, and diffusion which causes the substances to spread out in space. The classical representation of a reaction-diffusion system is given by semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations, whose general form is ÔêétX(x, t) = DΔX(x, t), where X(x, t) is the state vector, D is the matrix of the diffusion coefficients and Δ is the Laplace operator. If the solute move in an homogeneous system in thermal equilibrium, the diffusion coefficients are constants that do not depend on the local concentration of solvent and of solutes and on local temperature of the medium. In this paper a new stochastic reaction-diffusion model in which the diffusion coefficients are function of the local concentration, viscosity and frictional forces of solvent and solute is presented. Such a model provides a more realistic description of the molecular kinetics in non-homogenoeus and highly structured media as the intra- and inter-cellular spaces. The movement of a molecule A from a region i to a region j of the space is described as a first order reaction Ai k- → Aj , where the rate constant k depends on the diffusion coefficient. Representing the diffusional motion as a chemical reaction allows to assimilate a reaction-diffusion system to a pure reaction system and to simulate it with Gillespie-inspired stochastic simulation algorithms. The stochastic time evolution of the system is given by the occurrence of diffusion events and chemical reaction events. At each time step an event (reaction or diffusion) is selected from a probability distribution of waiting times determined by the specific speed of reaction and diffusion events. Redi is the software tool, developed to implement the model of reaction-diffusion kinetics and dynamics. It is a free software, that can be downloaded from http://www.cosbi.eu. To demonstrate the validity of the new reaction-diffusion model, the simulation results of the chaperone-assisted protein folding in cytoplasm obtained with Redi are reported. This case study is redrawing the attention of the scientific community due to current interests on protein aggregation as a potential cause for neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: Reaction-diffusion systems, Fick's law, stochastic simulation algorithm.

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Anil S. Khopkar, Kartik S. Pandya

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Lightning overvoltage phenomenon in power systems cannot be avoided; however, it can be controlled to certain extent. To prevent system failure, power system equipment must be protected against overvoltage. Metal Oxide Surge Arrestors (MOSA) are connected in the system to provide protection against overvoltages. Under normal working conditions, MOSA function as, insulators, offering a conductive path during overvoltage events. MOSA consists of zinc oxide elements (ZnO Blocks) which has non-linear V-I characteristics. The ZnO blocks are connected in series and fitted in ceramic or polymer housing. Over time, these components degrade due to continuous operation. The degradation of zinc oxide elements increases the leakage current flowing through the surge arrestors. This increased leakage current results in elevated temperatures within the surge arrester, further decreasing the resistance of the zinc oxide elements. Consequently, the leakage current increases, leading to higher temperatures within the MOSA. This cycle creates thermal runaway conditions for the MOSA. Once a surge arrester reaches the thermal runaway condition, it cannot return to normal working conditions. This condition is a primary cause of premature failure of surge arrestors. Given that MOSA constitutes a core protective device for electrical power systems against transients, it contributes significantly to the reliable operation of power system networks. Therefore, periodic condition monitoring of surge arrestors is essential. Both online and offline condition monitoring techniques are available for surge arrestors. Offline condition monitoring techniques are not as popular because they require the removal of surge arrestors from the system, which requires system shutdown. Therefore, online condition monitoring techniques are more commonly used. This paper presents an evaluation technique for the surge arrester condition based on leakage current analysis. The maximum amplitudes of total leakage current (IT), fundamental resistive leakage current (IR), and third harmonic resistive leakage current (I3rd) are analyzed as indicators for surge arrester condition monitoring.

Keywords: Metal Oxide Surge Arrester, MOSA, Over voltage, total leakage current, resistive leakage current, third harmonic resistive leakage current, capacitive leakage current.

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Authors: Mohammad M. Khan, Gajendra Dixit

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Partially lubricated sliding wear behaviour of a zinc-based alloy reinforced with 10wt% SiC particles has been studied as a function of applied load and solid lubricant particle size and has been compared with that of matrix alloy and conventionally used grey cast iron. The wear tests were conducted at the sliding velocities of 2.1m/sec in various partial lubricated conditions using pin on disc machine as per ASTM G-99-05. Base oil (SAE 20W-40) or mixture of the base oil with 5wt% graphite of particle sizes (7-10 µm) and (100 µm) were used for creating lubricated conditions. The matrix alloy revealed primary dendrites of a and eutectoid a + h and Î phases in the Inter dendritic regions. Similar microstructure has been depicted by the composite with an additional presence of the dispersoid SiC particles. In the case of cast iron, flakes of graphite were observed in the matrix; the latter comprised of (majority of) pearlite and (limited quantity of) ferrite. Results show a large improvement in wear resistance of the zinc-based alloy after reinforcement with SiC particles. The cast iron shows intermediate response between the matrix alloy and composite. The solid lubrication improved the wear resistance and friction behaviour of both the reinforced and base alloy. Moreover, minimum wear rate is obtained in oil+ 5wt % graphite (7-10 µm) lubricated environment for the matrix alloy and composite while for cast iron addition of solid lubricant increases the wear rate and minimum wear rate is obtained in case of oil lubricated environment. The cast iron experienced higher frictional heating than the matrix alloy and composite in all the cases especially at higher load condition. As far as friction coefficient is concerned, a mixed trend of behaviour was noted. The wear rate and frictional heating increased with load while friction coefficient was affected in an opposite manner. Test duration influenced the frictional heating and friction coefficient of the samples in a mixed manner.

Keywords: Solid lubricant, sliding wear grey cast iron, zinc based metal matrix composites.

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