Search results for: temporal modeling.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2363

Search results for: temporal modeling.

2153 Probabilistic Electrical Power Generation Modeling Using Decimal to Binary Conversion

Authors: Ahmed S. Al-Abdulwahab

Abstract:

Generation system reliability assessment is an important task which can be performed using deterministic or probabilistic techniques. The probabilistic approaches have significant advantages over the deterministic methods. However, more complicated modeling is required by the probabilistic approaches. Power generation model is a basic requirement for this assessment. One form of the generation models is the well known capacity outage probability table (COPT). Different analytical techniques have been used to construct the COPT. These approaches require considerable mathematical modeling of the generating units. The unit-s models are combined to build the COPT which will add more burdens on the process of creating the COPT. Decimal to Binary Conversion (DBC) technique is widely and commonly applied in electronic systems and computing This paper proposes a novel utilization of the DBC to create the COPT without engaging in analytical modeling or time consuming simulations. The simple binary representation , “0 " and “1 " is used to model the states o f generating units. The proposed technique is proven to be an effective approach to build the generation model.

Keywords: Decimal to Binary, generation, reliability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2043
2152 Topic Modeling Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Latent Semantic Indexing on South African Telco Twitter Data

Authors: Phumelele P. Kubheka, Pius A. Owolawi, Gbolahan Aiyetoro

Abstract:

Twitter is one of the most popular social media platforms where users share their opinions on different subjects. Twitter can be considered a great source for mining text due to the high volumes of data generated through the platform daily. Many industries such as telecommunication companies can leverage the availability of Twitter data to better understand their markets and make an appropriate business decision. This study performs topic modeling on Twitter data using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The obtained results are benchmarked with another topic modeling technique, Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI). The study aims to retrieve topics on a Twitter dataset containing user tweets on South African Telcos. Results from this study show that LSI is much faster than LDA. However, LDA yields better results with higher topic coherence by 8% for the best-performing model in this experiment. A higher topic coherence score indicates better performance of the model.

Keywords: Big data, latent Dirichlet allocation, latent semantic indexing, Telco, topic modeling, Twitter.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 461
2151 Process Modeling and Problem Solving: Connecting Two Worlds by BPMN

Authors: Gionata Carmignani, Mario G. C. A. Cimino, Franco Failli

Abstract:

Business Processes (BPs) are the key instrument to understand how companies operate at an organizational level, taking an as-is view of the workflow, and how to address their issues by identifying a to-be model. In last year’s, the BP Model and Notation (BPMN) has become a de-facto standard for modeling processes. However, this standard does not incorporate explicitly the Problem- Solving (PS) knowledge in the Process Modeling (PM) results. Thus, such knowledge cannot be shared or reused. To narrow this gap is today a challenging research area. In this paper we present a framework able to capture the PS knowledge and to improve a workflow. This framework extends the BPMN specification by incorporating new general-purpose elements. A pilot scenario is also presented and discussed.

Keywords: Business Process Management, BPMN, Problem Solving, Process mapping.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2038
2150 A Method to Saturation Modeling of Synchronous Machines in d-q Axes

Authors: Mohamed A. Khlifi, Badr M. Alshammari

Abstract:

This paper discusses the general methods to saturation in the steady-state, two axis (d & q) frame models of synchronous machines. In particular, the important role of the magnetic coupling between the d-q axes (cross-magnetizing phenomenon), is demonstrated. For that purpose, distinct methods of saturation modeling of dumper synchronous machine with cross-saturation are identified, and detailed models synthesis in d-q axes. A number of models are given in the final developed form. The procedure and the novel models are verified by a critical application to prove the validity of the method and the equivalence between all developed models is reported. Advantages of some of the models over the existing ones and their applicability are discussed.

Keywords: Cross-magnetizing, models synthesis, synchronous machine, saturated modeling, state-space vectors.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2250
2149 Research on the Correlation of the Fluctuating Density Gradient of the Compressible Flows

Authors: Yasuo Obikane

Abstract:

This work is to study a roll of the fluctuating density gradient in the compressible flows for the computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A new anisotropy tensor with the fluctuating density gradient is introduced, and is used for an invariant modeling technique to model the turbulent density gradient correlation equation derived from the continuity equation. The modeling equation is decomposed into three groups: group proportional to the mean velocity, and that proportional to the mean strain rate, and that proportional to the mean density. The characteristics of the correlation in a wake are extracted from the results by the two dimensional direct simulation, and shows the strong correlation with the vorticity in the wake near the body. Thus, it can be concluded that the correlation of the density gradient is a significant parameter to describe the quick generation of the turbulent property in the compressible flows.

Keywords: Turbulence Modeling , Density Gradient Correlation, Compressible

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1448
2148 Mathematical modeling of Bi-Substrate Enzymatic Reactions with Ping-Pong Mechanism in the Presence of Competitive Inhibitors

Authors: Rafayel A. Azizyan, Aram E. Gevogyan, Valeri B. Arakelyan, Emil S. Gevorgyan

Abstract:

The mathematical modeling of different biological processes is usually used to predict or assess behavior of systems in which these processes take place. This study deals with mathematical and computer modeling of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ping-pong mechanism, which play an important role in different biochemical pathways. Besides that, three models of competitive inhibition were designed using different software packages. The main objective of this study is to represent the results from in silico investigation of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ordered pingpong mechanism in the presence of competitive inhibitors, as well as to describe in details the inhibition effects. The simulation of the models with certain kinetic parameters allowed investigating the behavior of reactions as well as determined some interesting aspects concerning influence of different cases of competitive inhibition. Simultaneous presence of two inhibitors, competitive to the S1 and S2 substrates have been studied. Moreover, we have found the pattern of simultaneous influence of both inhibitors.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, ping-pong mechanism, competitive inhibition.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3596
2147 A Genetic-Neural-Network Modeling Approach for Self-Heating in GaN High Electron Mobility Transistors

Authors: Anwar Jarndal

Abstract:

In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design & modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1660
2146 Performance Modeling and Availability Analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: Availability Analysis, Markov Process, Performance Modeling, Steady State Availability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2303
2145 Dynamic Reroute Modeling for Emergency Evacuation: Case Study of Brunswick City, Germany

Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: Evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1181
2144 Intelligent Modeling of the Electrical Activity of the Human Heart

Authors: Lambros V. Skarlas, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Efstratios F. Georgopoulos, Adam V. Adamopoulos

Abstract:

The aim of this contribution is to present a new approach in modeling the electrical activity of the human heart. A recurrent artificial neural network is being used in order to exhibit a subset of the dynamics of the electrical behavior of the human heart. The proposed model can also be used, when integrated, as a diagnostic tool of the human heart system. What makes this approach unique is the fact that every model is being developed from physiological measurements of an individual. This kind of approach is very difficult to apply successfully in many modeling problems, because of the complexity and entropy of the free variables describing the complex system. Differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual, measured at specific moments, can be used for diagnostic purposes. The sensor fusion used in order to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors is another point that this paper focuses on. Sensor fusion has been known for its advantages in applications such as control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Diagnostic System, Health Condition Modeling Tool, Heart Diagnostics Model, Heart Electricity Model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1827
2143 Prospects, Problems of Marketing Research and Data Mining in Turkey

Authors: Sema Kurtuluş, Kemal Kurtuluş

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to review and assess the methodological issues and problems in marketing research, data and knowledge mining in Turkey. As a summary, academic marketing research publications in Turkey have significant problems. The most vital problem seems to be related with modeling. Most of the publications had major weaknesses in modeling. There were also, serious problems regarding measurement and scaling, sampling and analyses. Analyses myopia seems to be the most important problem for young academia in Turkey. Another very important finding is the lack of publications on data and knowledge mining in the academic world.

Keywords: Marketing research, data mining, knowledge mining, research modeling, analyses.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1969
2142 Teaching Science Content Area Literacy to 21st Century Learners

Authors: Melissa C. LaDuke

Abstract:

The use of new literacies within science classrooms needs to be balanced by teachers to both teach different forms of communication while assessing content area proficiency. Using new literacies such as Twitter and Facebook needs to be incorporated into science content area literacy studies in addition to continuing to use generally-accepted forms of scientific content area presentation which include scientific papers and textbooks. The research question this literature review seeks to answer is “What are some ways in which new forms of literacy are better suited to teach scientific content area literacy to 21st century learners?” The research question is addressed through a literature review that highlights methods currently being used to educate the next wave of learners in the world of science content area literacy. Both temporal discourse analysis (TDA) and critical discourse analysis (CDA) were used to determine the need to use new literacies to teach science content area literacy. Increased use of digital technologies and a change in science content area pedagogy were explored.

Keywords: Science content area literacy, new literacies, critical discourse analysis, temporal discourse analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 469
2141 Importance of Simulation in Manufacturing

Authors: F. Hosseinpour, H. Hajihosseini

Abstract:

Simulation is a very helpful and valuable work tool in manufacturing. It can be used in industrial field allowing the system`s behavior to be learnt and tested. Simulation provides a low cost, secure and fast analysis tool. It also provides benefits, which can be reached with many different system configurations. Topics to be discussed include: Applications, Modeling, Validating, Software and benefits of simulation. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on research efforts in simulation.

Keywords: Manufacturing, modeling, simulation, training.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8017
2140 Study of Flow Behavior of Aqueous Solution of Rhodamine B in Annular Reactor Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

Abstract:

The present study deals with the modeling and simulation of flow through an annular reactor at different hydrodynamic conditions using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the flow behavior. CFD modeling was utilized to predict velocity distribution and average velocity in the annular geometry. The results of CFD simulations were compared with the mathematically derived equations and already developed correlations for validation purposes. CFD modeling was found suitable for predicting the flow characteristics in annular geometry under laminar flow conditions. It was observed that CFD also provides local values of the parameters of interest in addition to the average values for the simulated geometry.

Keywords: Annular reactor, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), hydrodynamics, Rhodamine B

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1914
2139 The Integrated Studies of Infectious Disease Using Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation

Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich

Abstract:

In this paper we develop and analyze the model for the spread of Leptospirosis by age group in Thailand, between 1997 and 2010 by using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Leptospirosis is caused by pathogenic spirochetes of the genus Leptospira. It is a zoonotic disease of global importance and an emerging health problem in Thailand. In Thailand, leptospirosis is a reportable disease, the top three age groups are 23.31% in 35-44 years olds group, 22.76% in 25-34 year olds group, 17.60% in 45-54 year olds group from reported leptospirosis between 1997 and 2010, with a peak in 35-44 year olds group. Our paper, the Leptosipirosis transmission by age group in Thailand is studied on the mathematical model. Some analytical and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Age Group, Equilibrium State, Leptospirosis, Mathematical Modeling.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1635
2138 Design Channel Non-Persistent CSMA MAC Protocol Model for Complex Wireless Systems Based on SoC

Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

Abstract:

This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication models based on SoC design methodology. Such a model can be used to support the modeling of the complex wireless communication systems. Therefore, the use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high-performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP-based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: SystemC, modeling, simulation, CSMA.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1661
2137 Agent/Group/Role Organizational Model to Simulate an Industrial Control System

Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1191
2136 3D Face Modeling based on 3D Dense Morphable Face Shape Model

Authors: Yongsuk Jang Kim, Sun-Tae Chung, Boogyun Kim, Seongwon Cho

Abstract:

Realistic 3D face model is more precise in representing pose, illumination, and expression of face than 2D face model so that it can be utilized usefully in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. In this paper, we propose a 3D face modeling method based on 3D dense morphable shape model. The proposed 3D modeling method first constructs a 3D dense morphable shape model from 3D face scan data obtained using a 3D scanner. Next, the proposed method extracts and matches facial landmarks from 2D image sequence containing a face to be modeled, and then reconstructs 3D vertices coordinates of the landmarks using a factorization-based SfM technique. Then, the proposed method obtains a 3D dense shape model of the face to be modeled by fitting the constructed 3D dense morphable shape model into the reconstructed 3D vertices. Also, the proposed method makes a cylindrical texture map using 2D face image sequence. Finally, the proposed method generates a 3D face model by rendering the 3D dense face shape model using the cylindrical texture map. Through building processes of 3D face model by the proposed method, it is shown that the proposed method is relatively easy, fast and precise.

Keywords: 3D Face Modeling, 3D Morphable Shape Model, 3DReconstruction, 3D Correspondence.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2430
2135 Study of EEGs from Somatosensory Cortex and Alzheimer's Disease Sources

Authors: Md R. Bashar, Yan Li, Peng Wen

Abstract:

This study is to investigate the electroencephalogram (EEG) differences generated from a normal and Alzheimer-s disease (AD) sources. We also investigate the effects of brain tissue distortions due to AD on EEG. We develop a realistic head model from T1 weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using finite element method (FEM) for normal source (somatosensory cortex (SC) in parietal lobe) and AD sources (right amygdala (RA) and left amygdala (LA) in medial temporal lobe). Then, we compare the AD sourced EEGs to the SC sourced EEG for studying the nature of potential changes due to sources and 5% to 20% brain tissue distortions. We find an average of 0.15 magnification errors produced by AD sourced EEGs. Different brain tissue distortion models also generate the maximum 0.07 magnification. EEGs obtained from AD sources and different brain tissue distortion levels vary scalp potentials from normal source, and the electrodes residing in parietal and temporal lobes are more sensitive than other electrodes for AD sourced EEG.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease (AD), brain tissue distortion, electroencephalogram, finite element method.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1921
2134 A Generic e-Tutor for Graphical Problems

Authors: B.W. Field

Abstract:

For a variety of safety and economic reasons, engineering undergraduates in Australia have experienced diminishing access to the real hardware that is typically the embodiment of their theoretical studies. This trend will delay the development of practical competence, decrease the ability to model and design, and suppress motivation. The author has attempted to address this concern by creating a software tool that contains both photographic images of real machinery, and sets of graphical modeling 'tools'. Academics from a range of disciplines can use the software to set tutorial tasks, and incorporate feedback comments for a range of student responses. An evaluation of the software demonstrated that students who had solved modeling problems with the aid of the electronic tutor performed significantly better in formal examinations with similar problems. The 2-D graphical diagnostic routines in the Tutor have the potential to be used in a wider range of problem-solving tasks.

Keywords: CAL, graphics, modeling, structural distillation, tutoring.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1417
2133 Modeling of Catalyst Deactivation in Catalytic Wet Air Oxidation of Phenol in Fixed Bed Three-Phase Reactor

Authors: Akram Golestani, Mohammad Kazemeini, Farhad Khorasheh, Moslem Fattahi

Abstract:

Modeling and simulation of fixed bed three-phase catalytic reactors are considered for wet air catalytic oxidation of phenol to perform a comparative numerical analysis between tricklebed and packed-bubble column reactors. The modeling involves material balances both for the catalyst particle as well as for different fluid phases. Catalyst deactivation is also considered in a transient reactor model to investigate the effects of various parameters including reactor temperature on catalyst deactivation. The simulation results indicated that packed-bubble columns were slightly superior in performance than trickle beds. It was also found that reaction temperature was the most effective parameter in catalyst deactivation.

Keywords: Catalyst deactivation, Catalytic wet air oxidation, Trickle-bed, Wastewater.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2407
2132 Modeling and Analysis of Twelve-phase (Multi- Phase) DSTATCOM for Multi-Phase Load Circuits

Authors: Zakir Husain

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and analysis of 12-phase distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM), which is capable of balancing the source currents in spite of unbalanced loading and phase outages. In addition to balance the supply current, the power factor can be set to a desired value. The theory of instantaneous symmetrical components is used to generate the twelve-phase reference currents. These reference currents are then tracked using current controlled voltage source inverter, operated in a hysteresis band control scheme. An ideal compensator in place of physical realization of the compensator is used. The performance of the proposed DTATCOM is validated through MATLAB simulation and detailed simulation results are given.

Keywords: DSTATCOM, Modeling, Load balancing, Multiphase, Power factor correction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1842
2131 Parameter Tuning of Complex Systems Modeled in Agent Based Modeling and Simulation

Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1245
2130 Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Standardized Precipitation Index – A Case Study of Puruliya District, West Bengal, India

Authors: Moumita Palchaudhuri, Sujata Biswas

Abstract:

Drought is universally acknowledged as a phenomenon associated with scarcity of water. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) expresses the actual rainfall as standardized departure from rainfall probability distribution function. In this study severity and spatial pattern of meteorological drought was analyzed in the Puruliya District, West Bengal, India using multi-temporal SPI. Daily gridded data for the period 1971-2005 from 4 rainfall stations surrounding the study area were collected from IMD, Pune, and used in the analysis. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to generate drought severity maps for the different time scales and months of the year. Temporal SPI graphs show that the maximum SPI value (extreme drought) occurs in station 3 in the year 1993. Mild and moderate droughts occur in the central portion of the study area. Severe and extreme droughts were mostly found in the northeast, northwest and the southwest part of the region.

Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Index, Meteorological Drought, Geographical Information System, Drought severity.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4949
2129 Effects of Stream Tube Numbers on Flow and Sediments using GSTARS-3-A Case Study of the Karkheh Reservoir Dam in Western Dezful

Authors: M. H. Ayazi, M. Qamari, N.Hedayat, A. Rohani

Abstract:

Simulation of the flow and sedimentation process in the reservoir dams can be made by two methods of physical and mathematical modeling. The study area was within a region which ranged from the Jelogir hydrometric station to the Karkheh reservoir dam aimed at investigating the effects of stream tubes on the GSTARS-3 model behavior. The methodologies was to run the model based on 5 stream tubes in order to observe the influence of each scenario on longitudinal profiles, cross-section, flow velocity and bed load sediment size. Results further suggest that the use of two stream tubes or more which result in the semi-two-dimensional model will yield relatively closer results to the observational data than a singular stream tube modeling. Moreover, the results of modeling with three stream tubes shown to yield a relatively close results with the observational data. The overall conclusion of the paper is with applying various stream tubes; it would be possible to yield a significant influence on the modeling behavior Vis-a Vis the bed load sediment size.

Keywords: Karkheh, stream tubes, GSTARS-3 Model, Jelogir hydrometric station.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1600
2128 Effect of Type of Pile and Its Installation Method on Pile Bearing Capacity by Physical Modeling in Frustum Confining Vessel

Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, M. Mortezaee

Abstract:

Various factors such as the method of installation, the pile type, the pile material and the pile shape, can affect the final bearing capacity of a pile executed in the soil; among them, the method of installation is of special importance. The physical modeling is among the best options in the laboratory study of the piles behavior. Therefore, the current paper first presents and reviews the frustum confining vessel (FCV) as a suitable tool for physical modeling of deep foundations. Then, by describing the loading tests of two open-ended and closed-end steel piles, each of which has been performed in two methods, “with displacement" and "without displacement", the effect of end conditions and installation method on the final bearing capacity of the pile is investigated. The soil used in the current paper is silty sand of Firuzkuh, Iran. The results of the experiments show that in general the without displacement installation method has a larger bearing capacity in both piles, and in a specific method of installation the closed ended pile shows a slightly higher bearing capacity.

Keywords: physical modeling, frustum confining vessel, pile, bearing capacity, installation method

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 504
2127 Production Throughput Modeling under Five Uncertain Variables Using Bayesian Inference

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2148
2126 Statistical Analysis for Overdispersed Medical Count Data

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: Zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3317
2125 Dynamic Modeling of Underplateform Damper used in Turbomachinery

Authors: Vikas Rastogi, Vipan Kumar, Loveleen Kumar Bhagi

Abstract:

The present work deals with the structural analysis of turbine blades and modeling of turbine blades. A common failure mode for turbine machines is high cycle of fatigue of compressor and turbine blades due to high dynamic stresses caused by blade vibration and resonance within the operation range of the machinery. In this work, proper damping system will be analyzed to reduce the vibrating blade. The main focus of the work is the modeling of under platform damper to evaluate the dynamic analysis of turbine-blade vibrations. The system is analyzed using Bond graph technique. Bond graph is one of the most convenient ways to represent a system from the physical aspect in foreground. It has advantage of putting together multi-energy domains of a system in a single representation in a unified manner. The bond graph model of dry friction damper is simulated on SYMBOLS-shakti® software. In this work, the blades are modeled as Timoshenko beam. Blade Vibrations under different working conditions are being analyzed numerically.

Keywords: Turbine blade vibrations, Friction dampers, Timoshenko Beam, Bond graph modeling.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2328
2124 Reduced Order Modeling of Natural Gas Transient Flow in Pipelines

Authors: M. Behbahani-Nejad, Y. Shekari

Abstract:

A reduced order modeling approach for natural gas transient flow in pipelines is presented. The Euler equations are considered as the governing equations and solved numerically using the implicit Steger-Warming flux vector splitting method. Next, the linearized form of the equations is derived and the corresponding eigensystem is obtained. Then, a few dominant flow eigenmodes are used to construct an efficient reduced-order model. A well-known test case is presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed method. The results obtained are in good agreement with those of the direct numerical method and field data. Moreover, it is shown that the present reduced-order model is more efficient than the conventional numerical techniques for transient flow analysis of natural gas in pipelines.

Keywords: Eigenmode, Natural Gas, Reduced Order Modeling, Transient Flow.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1939