Search results for: sources of risk

Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis.

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Authors: Ankit R Patel, Ankit A Patel, Mahesh A Patel, Dhaval R Vyas

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Although lighting systems powered by Photovoltaic (PV) cells have existed for many years, they are not widely used, especially in lighting for buildings, due to their high initial cost and low conversion efficiency. One of the technical challenges facing PV powered lighting systems has been how to use dc power generated by the PV module to energize common light sources that are designed to operate efficiently under ac power. Usually, the efficiency of the dc light sources is very poor compared to ac light sources. Rapid developments in LED lighting systems have made this technology a potential candidate for PV powered lighting systems. This study analyzed the efficiency of each component of PV powered lighting systems to identify optimum system configurations for different applications.

Keywords: Energy Efficiency, LED, Modeling of systems, Photovoltaic.

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alexandr Bozek, Alena Bumbova, Jiri Dvorak, Lenka Jesonkova

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The contamination of 15 ground water resources of a selected region earmarked for the emergency supply of population has been monitored. The resources have been selected on the basis of previous assessment of natural conditions and the exploitation of territory in their surroundings and infiltration area. Two resources out of 15 have been excluded from further exploitation, because they have not met some of the 72 assessed hygienic indicators of extended analysis. The remaining 13 resources have been the subject of health risk analysis in relation to the contamination by arsenic, lead, cadmium, mercury, nickel and manganese. The risk analysis proved that all 13 resources meet health standards with regard to the above mentioned purposefully selected elements and may thus be included into crisis plans. Water quality of ground resources may be assessed in the same way with regard to other contaminants.

Keywords: Contamination, drinking water, emergency supply, health risk, hygienic limits, metals, risk assessment.

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Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: Supply chain, optimization, LP models, risk, environmental indicators, multi-objective.

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Authors: Z. Harouni, L. Osman, M. Yeddes, A. Gharsallah, H. Baudrand

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In this paper, an efficient wave concept iterative process (WCIP) with auxiliary Sources is presented for full wave investigation of an active microwave structure on micro strip technology. Good agreement between the experimental and simulation results is observed.

Keywords: WCIP, Dual-Gate Transistor, Auxiliary source.

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Authors: Thammarak Srimarut, Witthaya Mekhum

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This study analyzed and developed a model for monk’s food bowl production on occupational health safety and environment at work for the encouragement of Rattanakosin local wisdom at Banbart Community. The process of blowpipe welding was necessary to produce the bowl which was very dangerous or 93.59% risk. After the employment of new sitting posture, the work risk was lower 48.41% or moderate risk. When considering in details, it was found that: 1) the traditional sitting posture could create work risk at 88.89% while the new sitting posture could create the work risk at 58.86%. 2) About the environmental pollution, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 61.11% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 40.47%. 3) On accidental risk, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the accident from welding at 94.44% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the accident from welding at 62.54%.

Keywords: Occupational health safety, environment at work, Monk’s food bowl.

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Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: Boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones.

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: Cascading hazards, multi-hazard, risk assessment, risk reduction.

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Authors: Yong-Hui Li, Jing-Wen Huang

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As the advancement of technology, online shopping channel develops rapidly in recent years. According to the report of Taiwan Network Information Center, there are almost eighty percents of internet population shopping in online channel. Synthesizing insights from the previous research, this study develops the conceptual model to integrate Theory of Perceived Risk (TPR) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to apply in online shopping. Using data collected from 637 respondents from online survey website, we use structural equation modeling to test measurement and structural models. The results suggest the need for consideration of perceived risk as an antecedent in the Technology Acceptance Model. The limitations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: perceived risk, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, behavioral intention, actual purchase behavior

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Authors: Pavel Pešout, Miroslav Andrle

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Frauds in insurance industry are one of the major sources of operational risk of insurance companies and constitute a significant portion of their losses. Every reasonable company on the market aims for improving their processes of uncovering frauds and invests their resources to reduce them. This article is addressing fraud management area from the view of extension of existing Business Intelligence solution. We describe the frame of such solution and would like to share with readers all benefits brought to insurance companies by adopting this approach in their fight against insurance frauds.

Keywords: business intelligence, insurance fraud, fraudmanagement

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) is very important for countries with multiple disasters, such as Chile. In the world (also in Chile)different disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters) happen and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters occur at the same time. This meansthata multi-risk situation must be mastered. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs are concernedwith only a singledisaster (sometimes thecombination of earthquake and tsunami) and often with a particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better real-time response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture and well defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Disaster Management System, Multi-Risk, Multiagent System.

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Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

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The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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Authors: M. A. Adejumobi, J. O. Ojediran

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The aim of irrigation is to recharge the available water in the soil. Quality of irrigation water is essential for the yield and quality of crops produced, maintenance of soil productivity and protection of the environment. The analysis of irrigation water arises as a need to know the impact of irrigation water on the yield of crops, the effect, and the necessary control measures to rectify the effect of this for optimum production and yield of crops. This study was conducted to assess the quality of irrigation water with its performance on crop planted, in Josepdam irrigation scheme Bacita, Nigeria. Field visits were undertaken to identify and locate water supply sources and collect water samples from these sources; X1 Drain, Oshin, River Niger loop and Ndafa. Laboratory experiments were then undertaken to determine the quality of raw water from these sources. The analysis was carried for various parameters namely; physical and chemical analyses after water samples have been taken from four sources. The samples were tested in laboratory. Results showed that the raw water sources shows no salinity tendencies with SAR values less than 1me/l and Ecvaules at Zero while the pH were within the recommended range by FAO, there are increase in potassium and sulphate content contamination in three of the location. From this, it is recommended that there should be proper monitoring of the scheme by conducting analysis of water and soil in the environment, preferable test should be carried out at least one year to cover the impact of seasonal variations and to determine the physical and chemical analysis of the water used for irrigation at the scheme.

Keywords: Irrigation, Salinity, Raw water quality, Scheme.

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.

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Authors: M. Kargar, R. Mirmiran, F. Fartash, T. Saderi

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In this paper a new method is suggested for risk management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best planning for special objectives be done.

Keywords: Analysis, Data-mining, Pattern, Risk Management.

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Authors: S. A. Nta

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The study assessed the levels of some heavy metals in the contaminated soil from a point source using pollution indices to measure the extent of pollution. The soil used was sandy-loam in texture. The contaminant used was landfill leachate, introduced as a point source through an entry point positioned at the center of top layer of the soil tank. Samples were collected after 50 days and analyzed for heavy metal (Zn, Ni, Cu and Cd) using standard methods. The mean concentration of Ni ranged from 5.55-2.65 mg/kg, Zn 3.67-0.85 mg/kg, Cu 1.60-0.93 mg/kg and Cd 1.60-0.15 mg/kg. The richness of metals was in decreasing order: Ni > Zn > Cu > Cd. The metals concentration was found to be maximum at 0.25 m radial distance from the point of leachate application. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo) studied revealed that all the metals recovered at 0.25 and 0.50 m radial distance and at 0.15, 0.30, 0.45 and 0.60 m depth from the point of application of leachate fall under unpolluted to moderately polluted range. Ecological risk assessment showed high ecological risk index with values higher than RI > 300. The RI shows that the ecological risk in this study was mostly contributed by Cd ranging from 9-96.

Keywords: Ecological risk, assessment, heavy metals, test soils, landfill leachate.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Toru Takahashi

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In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.

Keywords: Lao flood, Mekong river, rainfall, risk management.

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Authors: Nevila Alliu, Saimir Heta, Ilma Robo, Vera Ostreni

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Periodontitis as an oral pathology caused by specific bacterial flora functions as a focal infection for the onset and aggravation of arteriosclerosis. These two distant pathologies, since they affect organs at a distance from each other, communicate with each other with correlation at the level of markers of inflammation in the blood. Fluctuations in the level of fibrinogen in the blood, depending on the active or passive phase of the existing periodontitis, affect the promotion of arteriosclerosis. The study is of the brief communication article type with the aim to analyze the effect of non-surgical periodontal treatment on fluctuations in the level of fibrinogen in the blood. The reduction of fibrinogen's level in blood after non-surgical periodontal treatment of periodontitis in the patient's oral cavity, is a common consequence supported by literature sources. Also, the influence of a high amount of fibrinogen in blood on the occurrence of arteriosclerosis at the same patient, is also another important data that again rely on many sources of literature. Thromboembolism and arteriosclerosis, as risk factors expressed in clinical data, have temporary bacteremia in the blood, which can occur significantly and often between phases of non-surgical periodontal treatment of periodontitis, treatments performed with treatment phases and protocols of predetermined treatment. Arterial thromboembolism has a significant factor, such as high levels of fibrinogen in the blood, which are significantly reduced during the period of non-surgical periodontal treatment.

Keywords: Fibrinogen, refractory periodontitis, atherosclerosis, non-surgical, periodontal treatment.

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: Credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: Control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty.

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: Portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique.

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Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

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Renewable Energy based microgrids are being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. The technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Electricity generation by Renewable Energy Sources is of stochastic nature such that there is a demand for regulation of voltage output in order to satisfy the standard loads’ requirements. In a renewable energy based microgrid, the energy sources give stochastically variable magnitude AC or DC voltages. AC voltage regulation of micro and mini sources pose practical challenges as well as unbearable costs. It is therefore practically and economically viable to convert the voltage outputs from stochastic AC and DC voltage sources to constant DC voltage to satisfy various DC loads including inverters which ultimately feed AC loads. This paper presents results obtained from SEPIC converter based DC bus voltage regulator as a case study for renewable energy microgrid application. Real-Time Simulation results show that upon appropriate choice of controller parameters for control of the SEPIC converter, the output DC bus voltage can be kept constant regardless of wide range of voltage variations of the source. This feature is particularly important in the situation that multiple renewable sources are to be integrated to supply a microgrid under main grid integration or isolated modes of operation.

Keywords: DC Voltage Regulator, microgrid, multisource, Renewable Energy, SEPIC Converter.

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: Automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

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The problems arising from unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many researchers have found that the performance of existing classifiers tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k-nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is a method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. In this study, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest in investigating misclassification error rates for classimbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Data from a project maintaining healthy conditions for 599 employees of a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The employees were divided into three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data including the variables of diabetes risk group, age, gender, blood glucose, and BMI were analyzed and bootstrapped for 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of the misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples showed nonnormality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. Searching the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) and (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k=3 or k=4 and the defined prior probabilities of non-risk: risk: diabetic as 0.90: 0.05:0.05 or 0.80:0.10:0.10 gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: Bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, error rate, k-nearest neighbors.

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Authors: Mojtaba Heydarizad, Hamid Ghalibaf Mohammadabadi

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Iran is a semi-arid and arid country in south-western Asia in the Middle East facing intense climatological drought from the early times. Therefore, studying the precipitation events and the moisture sources and air masses causing precipitation has great importance in this region. In this study, the moisture sources and stable isotope content of precipitation moisture in three main events in 2015 have been studied in North-Eastern Iran. HYSPLIT model backward trajectories showed that the Caspian Sea and the mixture of the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas are dominant moisture sources for the studied events. This showed the role of cP (Siberian) and Mediterranean (MedT) air masses. Stable isotope studies showed that precipitation events originated from the Caspian Sea with lower Sea Surface Temperature (SST) have more depleted isotope values. However, precipitation events sourced from the mixture of the Caspian and the Mediterranean Seas (with higher SST) showed more enriched isotope values.

Keywords: HYSPLIT, Iran, Northern Khorasan, stable isotopes.

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Authors: Arundhati Devi Maibam, K. Ingocha Singh

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Cervical cancer is preventable if detected early. Determination of risk factors is essential to plan screening programmes to prevent the disease. To study the demographic risk factors of cervical cancer among Manipuri women, information on age, marital status, educational level, monthly family income and socioeconomic status were collected through a pre-tested interview schedule. In this study, 64 incident cases registered at the RT Dept, RIMS (Regional Institute of Medical Sciences), Imphal, Manipur, India during 2008-09 participated. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel and the results were expressed in percentages. Among the 64 patients with cervical cancer, 56 (88.9%) were in the age group of 40+ years. The majority of the patients were from rural areas (68.75%) and 31.25% were from urban areas. The majority of the patients were Hindus (73%), 55(85.9%) were of low educational level, 43(67.2%) were married, and 36 (56.25%) belonged to Class IV socioeconomic status. In conclusion, if detected early, cervical cancer is preventable and curable. The potential risk factors need to be identified and women in the risk group need to be motivated for screening. Affordable screening programmes and health care resources will help in lessening the burden of the disease.

Keywords: Cervical cancer, Manipuri women, RIIMS, Socio-demographic risk factors.

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Authors: Z. Jovanovic, Z. Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

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In this paper, a methodology for noise reduction of motor vehicles in use is presented. The methodology relies on synergic model of noise generation as a function of time. The arbitrary number of motor vehicle noise sources act in concert yielding the generation of the overall noise level of motor vehicle thereafter. The number of noise sources participating in the overall noise level of motor vehicle is subjected to the constraint of the calculation of the acoustic potential of each noise source under consideration. It is the prerequisite condition for the calculation of the acoustic potential of the whole vehicle. The recast form of pertinent set of equations describing the synergic model is laid down and solved by dint of Gauss method. The bunch of results emerged and some of them i.e. those ensuing from model application to MDD FAP Priboj motor vehicle in use are particularly elucidated.

Keywords: Noise abatement, MV noise sources, noise source identification, muffler.

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Authors: Giwrgos S. Gkarmpounis, Aikaterini G. Rokkou, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

Increased energy consumption in the academic buildings, creates the need to implement energy saving measures and to take advantage of the renewable energy sources to cover the electrical needs of those buildings. An Academic Library will be used as a case study. With the aid of RETScreen software that takes into account the energy consumptions and characteristics of the Library Building, it is proved that measures such as the replacement of fluorescent lights with led lights, the installation of outdoor shading, the replacement of the openings and Building Management System installation, provide a high level of energy savings. Moreover, given the available space of the building and the climatic data, the installation of a photovoltaic system of 100 kW can also cover a serious amount of the building energy consumption, unlike a wind system that seems uncompromising. Lastly, HOMER software is used to compare the use of a photovoltaic system against a wind system in order to verify the results that came up from the RETScreen software concerning the renewable energy sources.

Keywords: Energy saving measures, homer software, renewable energy sources, RETScreen software, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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